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Anchorage COVID-19 Health Risk Metrics

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Anchorage COVID-19 Health Risk Metrics Date: May 14, 2021 To: Acting Mayor Austin Quinn-Davidson Thru: Heather Harris, Anchorage Health Department Director From: Janet Johnston, Anchorage Health Department Epidemiologist Subject: May 14, 2021, COVID-19 Risk Assessment Update for the Municipality of Anchorage This weekly report shares data available on the State of Alaska and Municipality of Anchorage (MOA) websites for the period May 6, 2021 – May 12, 2021, with some more recent data. Unless otherwise indicated, this data is for cases reported in the MOA. Anchorage COVID-19 Health Risk Metrics The MOA developed the Anchorage COVID-19 Health Risk Metrics tool to communicate the current level of health risks associated with COVID-19 within the Municipality. The tool includes multiple measures, which are referenced throughout this report. Each metric is assigned one of four categories each week, ranging from Very High Risk to Low Risk. Risk categories are based on public health authorities' standards, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the World Health Organization (WHO), and the Harvard Global Health Institute. The Overall Anchorage COVID-19 Risk Level has dropped to the low end of the Considerable Risk category. This Overall Risk Level is a consensus metric derived from individual metrics, with appropriate weight given to the most important metrics – Cases and Health Care Capacity. Additional community- level factors that affect risks associated with COVID-19 within the Municipality are also considered. Average daily new case counts have decreased below 10 cases per day per 100,000 residents, moving us into the Considerable Risk Level for this metric. With just over 50% of eligible residents having completed a COVID-19 vaccines series, Anchorage comprises two subpopulations with very different COVID-19 risk profiles. Unvaccinated individuals continue to fall into the High Risk category, while vaccinated individuals are in the Lower Risk category. With fewer mandated restrictions, individuals – especially unvaccinated individuals – need to assess their own risk and regulate their activities accordingly. 825 L Street, Anchorage, AK, 99501 | (907) 343-6718 | www.muni.org/health | @ancpublichealth May 14, 2021 Report, Page 2 of 14 Cases Case Counts, Hospitalizations, and Deaths • Daily new cases. The current 14-day rolling daily average of 9.27 cases per 100,000 is a 21% decrease from last week and is lower than we have seen since July 2020. • New cases this week. There were 166 new resident cases this week, 47 less than last week. • Racial distribution. Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander people comprised 10% of cases last week, compared to 5% since the beginning of the pandemic while Asian people comprised 11% of cases compared to 7% since the beginning of the pandemic. Race data was missing for 24% of the cases last week. People of color continue to make up a greater proportion of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths than they do of the general population. See Table 1 for a breakdown by race and ethnicity. • Age distribution: Twenty-six (26%) percent of new cases last week were age 19 or younger, compared to 19% for all cases since the beginning of the pandemic. Ages 20 to 29 made up 24 percent of the cases compared to 21 percent of the cases for the entire pandemic and 15 percent of the Anchorage population. These age shifts are likely due to high vaccination rates among seniors while children under age 16 were ineligible for vaccine until this week, and children under the age of 12 remain ineligible. See and Table 2 for breakdown by age. • Cumulative cases. As of May 12, there are 30,529 confirmed cases in the MOA. This includes 29,934 Anchorage residents in- and out-of-state and 595 nonresidents testing positive in Anchorage. • Current hospitalizations. As of May 11, there were 19 hospitalized COVID-19 cases. The number of hospitalized cases ranged from 17 to 21 this week. As of May 11, there were 0 hospitalized Persons Under Investigation (PUI). Hospitalizations are similar to last week. • Deaths. There have been 176 Anchorage deaths, 175 among Anchorage residents, and one non- resident. This is the same as last week’s report. 825 L Street, Anchorage, AK, 99501 | (907) 343-6718 | www.muni.org/health | @ancpublichealth Table 1: COVID-19 Cases by Race and Ethnicity (excluding cases with missing race or ethnicity data, 24% missing) Cases in the Last Week All Cases Hospitalizations Deaths Hosp. rate per Death rate 100 per 100 Race Cases % Rate* Cases % Rate* Cases % cases Cases % cases American Indian or Alaska 17 14% 67 4,018 19% 15,722 149 21% 3.7 47 27% 1.2 Native Asian 14 11% 54 1,451 7% 5,586 82 11% 5.7 25 14% 1.7 Black or African American 5 4% 33 992 5% 6,523 39 5% 3.9 9 5% 0.9 Native Hawaiian or Other 12 10% 149 1,144 5% 14,227 1 0% 0.1 19 11% 1.7 Pacific Islander White 50 40% 28 7,940 38% 4,402 236 33% 3.0 69 40% 0.9 Other Race 16 13% 247 3,257 16% 50,185 44 6% 1.4 - 0% - Two or More Races 10 8% 38 2,188 10% 8,306 165 23% 7.5 5 3% 0.2 All Cases (race known) 124 100% 43 20,990 100% 7,288 716 100% 3.4 174 100% 0.8 Ethnicity Cases Percent Rate* Cases Percent Rate* Cases Percent Rate Cases Percent Rate Hispanic 10 15% 37 1,485 13% 5,502 43 8% 2.9 13 8% 0.9 Non-Hispanic 55 85% 21 10,375 87% 3,975 514 92% 5.0 158 92% 1.5 All Cases (ethnicity 65 100% 23 11,860 1 4,118 557 1 4.7 171 100% 1.4 known) * Per 100,000 825 L Street, Anchorage, AK, 99501 | (907) 343-6718 | www.muni.org/health | @ancpublichealth May 14, 2021 Report, Page 4 of 14 Table 2: COVID-19 Cases by Age and Sex Last Week Cases All Cases, All Time Hospitalizations Deaths Hosp. Death rate per rate per 100 100 Age Cases Percent Rate* Cases Percent Rate* Cases Percent cases Cases Percent cases 0 to 9 17 10% 44 2,010 7% 5,172 6 1% 0.3 - 0% - 10 to 19 25 15% 66 3,657 12% 9,620 7 1% 0.2 - 0% - 20 to 29 39 24% 90 6,408 21% 14,779 37 5% 0.6 3 2% 0.0 30 to 39 34 21% 73 5,863 20% 12,640 73 9% 1.2 2 1% 0.0 40 to 49 16 10% 46 4,076 14% 11,830 90 11% 2.2 11 6% 0.3 50 to 59 11 7% 31 3,742 13% 10,651 137 17% 3.7 13 7% 0.3 60 to 69 15 9% 48 2,613 9% 8,339 166 21% 6.4 32 18% 1.2 70 to 79 7 4% 46 1,057 4% 6,938 176 22% 16.7 59 34% 5.6 80+ - 0% - 479 2% 7,745 112 14% 23.4 55 31% 11.5 All Cases 164 100% 57 29,905 100% 10,349 804 100% 2.7 175 100% 0.6 Sex Cases Percent Rate* Cases Percent Rate* Cases Percent Rate Cases Percent Rate Female 71 44% 49 14,619 49% 10,169 364 45% 2.5 69 39% 0.5 Male 92 56% 63 15,278 51% 10,522 440 55% 2.9 106 61% 0.7 All Cases (sex known) 163 100% 56 29,897 100% 10,346 804 100% 2.7 175 100% 0.6 * Per 100,000 825 L Street, Anchorage, AK, 99501 | (907) 343-6718 | www.muni.org/health | @ancpublichealth Health Care Capacity • ICU beds. On average, between May 5 and May 11, 19.5% of staffed adult ICU beds at the three acute care hospitals in Anchorage were available. This is similar to the 17.1% available on average the week before and keeps us in the “Lower Risk” category for the Anchorage COVID-19 Health Risk Metrics. Between May 5 and May 11, the number of staffed adult ICU beds ranged from 66 to 70, and the number of available staffed adult ICU beds ranged from 10 to 18. • Non-ICU beds. As of May 12, there were 77 available adult non-ICU beds out of 521 total staffed adult non-ICU beds. • Ventilators. As of May 12, there were two COVID-19 patients on ventilators in Anchorage. • Hospital Impact: As of May 12, 3.3% of all hospitalizations and 3.0% of Emergency Department (ED) visits at the three acute care hospitals in Anchorage were related to COVID-19. Projected Health Care Capacity • CDC COVID-19 Surge model: The CDC COVID-19 Surge model has been updated with data through May 12. The model indicates sufficient ICU capacity to meet demand from COVID-19 cases under current conditions through at least the next three months. Increases in virus transmission after May 13 that are 56% or more above our current Rt could result in ICU capacity being exceeded in Anchorage within three months. Adjusting for the effect of COVID vaccinations in Anchorage reduces this likelihood substantially, indicating that increases in transmission of ≥180% would be required to exceed ICU capacity. This is a similar risk to that reported last week and keeps us to the “Lower Risk” category for the Anchorage COVID-19 Health Risk Metrics (Appendix 1). 825 L Street, Anchorage, AK, 99501 | (907) 343-6718 | www.muni.org/health | @ancpublichealth May 14, 2021 Report, Page 6 of 14 Infection Rate • The consensus Rt of 0.86 is similar to last week’s consensus estimate of 0.84 and keeps us in the “Lower Risk” category for the Anchorage COVID-19 Health Risk Metrics (Appendix 1).
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