The New Great Game in Muslim Central Asia

47 New Great Game in Muslim Central Asia M. E. Ahrari A popular Government, without popular information or the means of acquiring it, is but a Prologue to a Farce or a Tragedy; or perhaps both. Knowledge will forever govern ignorance; And a people who mean to be their own Go vern ors, must arm themselves with the power which knowledge gives. JAMES MADISON to W. T. BARRY August 4, 1822 THE NEW GREAT GAME IN MUSLIM CENTRAL ASIA M. E. AHRARI with JAMES BEAL McNair Paper 47 January 1996 INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL STRATEGIC STUDIES NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY Washington, DC NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY • President: Lieuten,'mt General Ervin J. Rokke, USAF • Vice President: Ambassador William G. Walker INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL STRATE(;IC STUDIES • Director & Publisher: Dr. H~u~s A. Bimaendijk NDU Press Fort Lesley J. McNair, Washington, DC 20319-6(X)0 Phone: (202) 475-1913 • Facsimile: (202) 475 -1012 • Director & Managing Editor: Dr. Frederick T. Kiley Vice Director & General Editor: Major Thomas W. Krise, USAF • Chief, Editorial & Publications Branch: Mr. George C. Maerz • Senior Editor: Ms. Mary A. Solrunerville • Editor: Mr. Jonath:m W. Pierce • Editor for this issue" Ms. Mary A. Sommerville • Editorial Assistant: Ms. Cherie R. Preville • Distribution Manager: Mrs. Myrna Myers • Secretary: Mrs. Laura Hall From time to time. INSS publishes McNair Papers to provoke thought and hfform discussion on issues of U.S. national security in the post-Cold War era. These monographs present current topics related to national security strategy and policy, defense resource management, international affairs, civil-military relations, military technology, grad joint, combined, ~md coalition operations. ()pinions, conclusions, and recommendations, expressed or implied, are those of the authors, l'hey do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Defense University, the Department of Defense, or any other U.S. Government agency. Cleared for public release; distribution unlimited. Portions of this publication may be quoted or reprinted without fllrther permission, with credit to the hastitute for National Strategic Studies, Washington, DC. A courtesy copy of reviews ~md tearsheets would be appreciated. For sale by the II.S. GovernmentPrinting Office Supenntendent of Documents, Mail Stop: SSf)P, WashingTon, DC 20402-9328 ISSN 1071-7552 CONTENTS 1. The Framework ............................ 1 2. Geopolitics and the Dynamics of Domestic Problems ...................... 9 Ethnic Problems ............................ 9 The Economy ............................. 12 Resources ................................ 16 Ecology and Health ......................... 19 Political Pluralism .......................... 23 Islam and the Future of Political Stability ......... 33 Security .................................. 37 Control of Nuclear Weapons .................. 40 3. godalities of the New Great Game ............ 45 Central Asia as an Extension of the Middle East ... 45 Russia, America, and the Great Game ........... 50 New Players: Turkey and Iran ................. 62 Geopolitics and Geoeconomics ................ 66 4. Conclusion ............................... 73 Appendix 1 : Structure of Muslim Central Asian Economies, 1990-1991 ................. 87 Appendix 2: Contemporary Sources of Russia's Dominance in the Near Abroad ................ 89 About the Author ............................. 91 THE NEW GREAT GAME IN MUSLIM CENTRAL ASIA • THE FRAMEWORK The dismantlement of the Soviet Union also brought about the liberation of six Central Asian Muslim republics--Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan (figure 1). Athough Azerbaijan is part of the Caucasus region, it is included in this study because: • The independence of that cotmtry, like that of the Central Asian states, was brought about as a result of the dismantlement of the Soviet Union. • Azerbaijan, like its Central Asian counterparts, is a Muslim state, and faces similar politico-economic problems. Azerbaijan's conflict with Armenia involving Nagorno-Karabkh reminds one of a number of conflicts in the Central Asian region. These include a seething ethnic conflict in Kazakhstan (involving the Khazaks and the Slavs), the ongoing civil war in Tajikistan "along ethnic, national, and religious lines (since the Russian forces are "also involved in this civil war), and the etlmic conflict in the Fargana valley that cuts across the borders of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. • Like the economies of its Central Asian neighbors, the Azeri economy was largely dependent on the economy of the former Soviet Union. Consequently, like its other neighbors, Azerbaijan is also busy establishing economic self-sufficiency, along with strengthening its religious political, linguistic, and ethnic identities. All these states are etlmicaily heterogenous, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan having the largest percentage of Russian population; except for Azerbaijaal, the Sunni Muslim faith predominates; and the mother tongue of these countries, save Tajikistan, is of Turkic 2 THE NEW GREAT GAME IN MUSLIM CENTRAL ASIA origin. Although these states appear to have more in common with file Middle East than with other members of tile Commonwealth of h~dependent States (CIS), quite wisely, these states decided to join that organization. Through this action, they appear to have postponed the political instability that their sudden independence was likely to have caused. These states are either primarily or substantially Muslim. They have no tradition or institutional memory of a democratic government. The level of education of their population is mnong the lowest in the region. As these states deal with this unique period of independence, they will also try to find their proper places in the world community. During this time, they will be ilffluenced by various regional and extraregional aclors who have their own agendas vis-a-vis these states. The old version of the "great game" might have entered history; the new version began soon after the breakup of the Soviet Union. It is this "great gmne--post-Cold War style" that is the topic of this study. The originator of the phrase "great game" was J. W. Kay, who used it in his book, History of the War in Afghanistan, ~ but Rudyard Kipling popularized it in his novel, Kim, to describe the 18th- and 19th-century rivalry between Britain mad Russia over the Indian subcontinent. Peter Hopkirk, in The Great Game. establishes that the territory of this struggle---characterized by intrigues mad conspiracies--was the land between Russia and India. 2 The Central Asian territory was then ruled by a variety of local khans. Even though they did not have much knowledge of the world beyond their immediate vicinity, they were indeed quite cogni,,.ant of Russian motives and of the British conquest of India. To prolong their own rule, they were able to play these two great powers against each other with considerable skill. The new great game may not be aimed at the physical subjugation of Muslim Central Asia, but Russia--the only regional actor wifl~ the capability to conquer one or more nations of Muslim Central Asia--may indeed resuscitate its own historical will to reconquer one or more nations of Muslim Central Asia, especially if the democratic experience in that country becomes a miserable THE FRAMEWORK 3 I,LI ¢t" (.'3 4 THE NEW GREAT GAME IN MUSLIM CENTRAL ASIA failure and if extremists gain control of the Russian government. It is possible, however, that any of these countries would intervene ill the ",fffairs of its neighbors in the event of an impending civil war, in the name of stabilizing the troubled area. In that case, Russian troops would be likely to play an important role in pacifying that area; this is exactly what is happening in Tajikistan, where Uzbekistan is reported to have intervened on behalf of the pro- Communist regime of Ralmlan Nabiyev. The Russian troops stationed in Tajikistan are also reported to be intervening on behalf of the ex-Communist forces. Pu~ important aspect of this new great game is that tile Muslim Central Asian republics are playing a crucial role in determining lheir own future. Such an independent role also entails choosing friends, alliances, government models (an Islamic or a secular one) and economic arrangements (e.g., emulation of the South Korean, Chinese, or Westen European models). A number of great and regional powers are also likely to play an equally crucial role in the new great gmne. These include Russia, the United States, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan. This aspect of the great game is quite crucial, for it involves political, nfilitary economic, and, most important, the religious agendas likely to determine the strategic future of Muslim Central Asia. The involvement of these great and regional powers also means that they would bring into the regional arena their respective strategic priorities, which are not of great significm~ce to the Central Asian countries but wlfich might influence the future dynamics of the great game itself. For instance, the Iranim~-Turkish rivalry or the Saudi-Iranian rivalry is not of much concern to one or more of these republics, but whichever of these regional powers gains a diplomatic upper hand may have some bearing on the decision of one or more of tile Central Asim~ republics to opt for all Islamic or secular model. One has to be careful about not overplaying or underplaying the significance of the Iraniml or Turkish models. In the final analysis, the decision to remain secular

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