PwC Growth Markets Centre – Realising opportunities along the Belt and Road June 2017 Repaving the ancient Silk Routes In this report 1 Foreword 2 Chapter 1: Belt and Road – A global game changer 8 Chapter 2: China’s goals for the Belt and Road 14 Chapter 3: Key sectors and economic corridors 28 Chapter 4: Opportunities for foreign companies 34 Chapter 5: Unique Belt and Road considerations 44 Chapter 6: Strategies to evaluate and select projects 56 Chapter 7: Positioning for success 66 Chapter 8: Leveraging international platforms 72 Conclusion Foreword Belt and Road – a unique trans-national opportunity Not your typical infrastructure projects Few people could have envisaged what the Belt and Road However, despite the vast range and number of B&R (B&R) entailed when President Xi of China first announced opportunities, many of these are developed in complex the concept back in 2013. However, four years later, the B&R conditions, not least because they are located in growth initiative has amassed a huge amount of economic markets where institutional voids can prove to be hard to momentum.The B&R initiative refers to the Silk Road navigate. Inconsistencies in regulatory regimes and Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road underdeveloped credit markets, together with weak existing initiatives. The network connects Asia, Europe and Africa, infrastructure and a maturing talent market all combine to and passes through more than 65 countries and regions with add further complexity for companies trying to deliver and a population of about 4.4 billion and a third of the global manage these projects. economy. In many ways, the initiative serves as a blueprint for how China wants to further connect itself into the global In addition to the challenges which are characteristics of economy and strengthen its influence in the region. The operating in growth markets, companies also need to be initiative has added fresh impetus to China and the rest of the cognisant of the specific B&R considerations. Given the world to promote regional cooperation and presented transnational nature of these projects, geo-politics will play a numerous opportunities for foreign companies to be involved. greater role than normal, as regimes may change multiple times during a project’s lifespan and companies must also A role for foreign companies anticipate greater operational challenges. What was once perceived as China’s dream is gradually now Preparing for success becoming reality, as the initiative matures. PwC has estimated that in 2016, the value of announced infrastructure Our report, Repaving the ancient Silk Routes, not only projects across the regions within the B&R initiative surged by describes what the B&R initiative entails and China’s 47%. To realise an endeavour of this scale and maintain its motivation for driving such a significant programme, but momentum, Chinese enterprises are increasingly looking to more importantly explores where the real opportunities lie for partner with foreign companies which can play a pivotal role, foreign companies which are looking to get involved. It also not only with their world class skills and capabilities, but provides insights as to how companies can successfully specifically in bringing their experience of delivering and evaluate potential B&R projects and prepare themselves to managing projects in developing markets and establishing navigate the specific challenges which characterise them. We workable local relationships. firmly believe that with the correct approach, foreign companies can successfully navigate through these Foreign companies such as the American conglomerate uncertainties and benefit from participating in the largest General Electric and the French power equipment player trans-continental infrastructure initiative the world has ever Alstom have already become meaningfully involved in this known. trans-national, multi-sectoral initiative. General Electric reported that its total orders from Chinese engineering, As the Chinese saying goes, “树大招风” – which literally means procurement and construction (EPC) companies have “a tall tree attracts the wind” – a major strategy such as the increased threefold in the past year, of which 40% of Belt and Road Initiative inevitably finds itself having to equipment will be manufactured in China. navigate numerous obstacles. Only with the long-term development of assets can companies succeed in B&R. This is an exciting time of development not only for China and all those countries along the Belt and Road, but for the world.1 David Wijeratne Mark Rathbone Growth Markets Centre Leader Capital Projects and Infrastructure PwC Asia-Pacific Leader Partner, PwC Singapore Frank Lyn Markets Leader PwC China and Hong Kong PwC | Repaving the ancient Silk Routes | 1 Chapter 1: Belt and Road – A global game changer Gaining momentum purely part of China’s geopolitical agenda, to balance and complement its progressive outbound acquisitions and Since the announcement of the Belt and Road (B&R) initiative investments in the developed markets. Furthermore, the by the Chinese government in September 2013, the subject initiative’s focus on high growth developing markets has cast has generated considerable discussion and speculation, but doubt as to its operational viability and investment returns several questions still remain unanswered, especially for due to the complex and unpredictable business conditions in those with a commercial interest. What is the B&R all about these markets. and how does it align with China’s growth plans? What constitutes a B&R project, and if there any commercial This information vacuum has resulted in cautiousness across opportunities for foreign companies, where are they and the international community and deterred some investors what are their chances of success? from further exploring the commercial opportunities of the B&R initiative. However, despite the global desire for more official details and specifics, the Chinese government has continued to keep the details of the B&R vague and broadly defined. This has led many people to, perhaps too narrowly, conclude that it is “ In many ways, the initiative serves as a blueprint for how China wants to further connect itself into the global economy and strengthen its influence in the region. The initiative has added fresh impetus to China and the rest of the world to promote regional cooperation and presented numerous opportunities for foreign and Chinese companies to be involved. It is a driver for long term growth and expansion as well as corporate profitability. Therefore, strategically, companies need to be involved at an early stage to reap the long term benefits. ” Frank Lyn Markets Leader PwC China and Hong Kong 2 | Repaving the ancient Silk Routes | PwC To fill this information vacuum one needs to look into China’s The foundations of the new Silk Road Economic Belt were laid history. The B&R initiative is not a new idea, but rather the in 1999, prior to President Xi Jinping taking office, when the regeneration by the current Chinese government of the old Chinese government made a concerted effort to promote and highly successful Silk Route dating back to the 2nd overseas Chinese investments with its ‘Go Out’ policy.4 century BC, during the Han Dynasty era of China. The Silk Led by its state-owned enterprises (SOEs), China’s overseas Road was initially established around 130BC when Zhang investments rose from US$3bn in 1991 to US$35bn in 2003.5 Qian, a Chinese imperial official and diplomat, was sent This included the Chinese government initiating many westward by the Han Emperor Wudi to form alliances against discussions with developing countries and signing bilateral the nomadic Xiongnu tribes. His journey to the West was agreements to collaborate in financing and developing viewed as the first step of Chinese contact with the Western infrastructure in these countries. In 2013 President Xi Jinping world, and over the subsequent years the Silk Road became an took office6 and the Silk Road Economic Belt was proposed important trade route and took significance as the beginnings during President Xi’s trip to Kazakhstan later that year7, of commercial relations between China and Western world. followed by the Maritime Silk Road on a trip to Indonesia.8 At its peak, the Silk Road stretched from Eastern China to the This culminated in the announcement of the B&R initiative in Mediterranean Sea.2 The Silk Road underwent numerous May 2014 at the Conference on Interaction and Confidence periods of revitalization and decay over centuries. However, Building Measures in Asia (CICA).9 Following this, the Chinese the overland trade route with European trade significantly government established national policies under the B&R diminished following the fragmentation of the Mongol Empire initiative, expedited existing outward-focused projects with in the 13th century.3 the re-signing of the existing bilateral agreements and Memorandums of Understanding (MOUs), while other new projects were initiated.10 Figure 1a: The ancient Silk Road The journey of Zhang Qian along the ancient Silk Road Four cities marked: Xi’an, Kashgar, Faqirabad and Hotan Kashgar Faqirabad Xi’an Hotan (Chang’ An) 130BC – Zhang Qian embarked on a journey to the West and was credited for establishing the ancient Silk Road Source: China.com11 PwC | Repaving the ancient Silk Routes | 3 Within the first year following the B&R announcement, in a for implementing the B&R initiative. China is also working with show of its strong commitment to the programme, the Chinese more than 20 countries on capacity-building projects in the government established the Silk Road Fund (SRF) with manufacturing sector.16 US$40bn.12 Separately in January 2016, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) opened, and to date it At the time of writing, Latvia is the latest country – and the has 57 signatories including China, with a further additional first in the Baltic Sea – to sign a Memorandum of 20 prospective members.13 By the end of 2016, it had approved Understanding (MOU) with China, effectively signalling its 17 the lending of US$1.73bn.14 The AIIB has also engaged in participation in the B&R initiative in November 2016.