The Costs and Impacts of Intermittency – 2016 Update

The EU referendum: Implications for UK Energy Policy The costs and impacts of intermittency – 2016 update A systematic review of the evidence on the costs and impacts of intermittent electricity generation technologies Philip Heptonstall, Robert Gross, Florian Steiner February 2017 The costs and impacts of intermittency – 2016 update Preface J The UK Energy Research Centre The UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) carries out world- class, interdisciplinary research into sustainable future energy systems. It is a focal point of UK energy research and a gateway between the UK and the international energy research communities. Our whole systems research informs UK policy development and research strategy. UKERC is funded by The Research Councils Energy Programme. For more information, visit www.ukerc.ac.uk The Technology and Policy Assessment (TPA) Theme of UKERC The Technology and Policy Assessment (TPA) was set up to inform decision-making processes and address key controversies in the energy field. It aims to provide authoritative and accessible reports that set very high standards for rigour and transparency. Subjects are chosen after extensive consultation with energy sector stakeholders and with the UKERC Research Committee. The TPA has been part of UKERC since the centre was established in 2004 and is now in its third phase, which started in 2014. The primary objective of the TPA is to provide a thorough review of the current state of knowledge through systematic reviews of literature, supplemented by primary research and wider stakeholder engagement where required. Acknowledgements The project team are grateful to the Expert Group and the external peer reviewers for their extensive and very helpful comments on drafts of the report. The members of the Expert Group were: Damitha Adikaari, Keith Bell, Andy Boston, James Cox, Lewis Dale, Tim Green, Eric Ling, Mark O’Malley, Simon Mueller, Goran Strbac, and Mike Thompson. The peer reviewers were Hannele Holttinen and Michael Milligan. Responsibility for the content of the report and any errors or omissions remains exclusively with the authors. The costs and impacts of intermittency – 2016 update 1 Executive Summary of variable renewables. This report provides an update to the Overview original 2006 UKERC study, reviewing the new evidence for the • This report updates a previous UKERC study, The Costs and costs and impacts associated with higher shares of renewable Impact of Intermittency (Gross et al. 2006), which reviews the generation and assessing how projected impacts may have evidence on integrating variable renewable sources such as changed. For the purposes of this project ‘new evidence’ was wind and solar into power systems. defined as that which has emerged since the previous UKERC review in late 2005/early 2006. Since then, a considerable • When the original report was written most of the evidence number of new studies have been carried out into the likely did not assess renewable penetration levels above 20%. Not effects of integrating renewable generation into electricity all renewables are variable. However leading countries are systems, The systematic review found almost 200 journal already integrating variable renewables at above 20%, and papers, reports and other evidence sources which directly many countries have targets to expand renewables far above address the project’s research questions. what was envisaged in 2006. • The key challenge facing policymakers, regulators and markets is delivering a flexible, low carbon system that makes best use of variable renewables whilst minimising Characterising impacts and overall cost and enhancing security and reliability. assessing costs • The additional costs of adding variable renewable generation Adding variable renewable generation to an electricity to an electricity system can vary quite dramatically, but they system creates a range of impacts, both costs and benefits. are usually modest, with higher costs normally the result of In fact, all forms of electricity generation affect the system inflexible or sub-optimal systems. to which they are connected. Any additional system costs • Electricity systems and markets must adapt and be re- created by a particular generator or technology type must be optimised to incorporate large proportions of variable borne regardless of whether those costs are attributed to the renewable generation. generator or not. • A ‘whole system’ analytical approach – rather than seeking Power systems have always had to be optimised to integrate a to quantify individual impacts - is essential to determine the range of generator characteristics – inflexible nuclear, energy- optimal mix of technologies in substantially transformed limited hydro, coal plants which require a 24 hour warm up and systems. so on. In the past this was a largely uncontentious area that did not feature in societal or policy discourse. Indeed, analyses rarely calculate separate integration costs for other types of generation (even though they may well impose some costs on Introduction the system), but the characteristics of the system (including conventional generation) is a key determinant of the scale of Ten years ago the Technology and Policy Assessment team of variable renewable integration costs. Failing to recognise this the UK Energy Research Centre completed its first systematic runs the risk of a false comparison where variable renewable review of the costs and impacts of adding ‘intermittent’ or integration costs are given high prominence and the costs ‘variable renewable’ electricity, such as wind or solar, to an associated with other generation technologies are entirely electricity system. ignored. Most of the evidence available at that time did not consider In 2006 many of the impacts of and additional costs related variable renewable penetration levels above 20%. The project to variable renewable generation were found to be negligible. concluded that at this penetration level total costs in the UK The exceptions were 1) the cost of additional short-term would be relatively modest, adding less than £10/MWh (in reserves required to balance electricity supply and demand 2015 GBP terms) to the base cost of the renewable electricity over the timescales of seconds to hours, and 2) the costs of generated. the generating capacity required to ensure that a system can Since 2006, targets for renewable generation have increased reliably meet peak demand. However, as penetration levels rise, significantly in many countries, and a substantial proportion other significant impacts come into play, including: curtailment of these targets will be met through large-scale deployment (where variable renewable generation cannot be accepted onto 2 the grid); transmission and distribution network reinforcement additional costs will be minimised if electricity systems are costs; the potential for reduced efficiency of the remaining optimised to facilitate the integration of variable renewable thermal plant on a system; and the need to ensure that a generation. This optimisation includes changes to both the system has sufficient mechanical inertia to maintain frequency technical and economic characteristics of electricity generating stability. Depending on their design and operation, these plant, potential contributions from flexible demand, storage impacts may also manifest themselves in the relative market and increased interconnection capacity, as well as changes to value of output from both conventional and variable renewable system operation, regulatory frameworks and the design of generators. electricity markets. The danger of double counting and the need for a whole systems approach Evidence by category of Different categories of impact interact and overlap to a considerable extent. This creates the risk of double-counting impact some elements of costs, and the possibility that the benefits Notwithstanding the increasing importance of whole system offered by particular types of generator are not accurately cost assessment, individual cost impacts continue to feature represented in some cost estimates. For example, increasing prominently in the debate and are reported in a wide range system reserves to meet short-term balancing requirements of studies. Since it is a key objective of this report to provide may also contribute to the capacity margin required to reliably a thorough and comprehensive review of the evidence, these meet demand peaks. Similarly, curtailment costs may be findings are summarised below by category of impact. already accounted for in the costs of the total system capacity required to satisfy overall demand, and transmission costs may Reserve requirements and costs be offset by reductions in the costs of curtailment. It is also Introducing variable renewable generation to an electricity important to note that although several countries and regions system would normally be expected to increase the amount now have significant penetrations of variable renewables, of flexible, dispatchable generation capacity that must be held even current additional costs are usually still estimated using in reserve to cope with short-term fluctuations in output that models because the actual costs imposed on a system are not result from varying wind speeds or solar insolation levels. Care fully transparent. must be taken when comparing analyses of reserves because Partly in response to this complexity, in recent years there have the term is often used to cover a range of different types of been an increasing number

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