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Cyber Threat Modeling: Survey, Assessment, and Representative Framework

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Cyber Threat Modeling: Survey, Assessment, and Representative Framework Prepared for: Department of Homeland Security Cyber Threat Modeling: Survey, Assessment, and Representative Framework April 7, 2018 Authors: Deborah J. Bodeau Catherine D. McCollum David B. Fox The Homeland Security Systems Engineering and Development Institute (HSSEDI)™ Operated by The MITRE Corporation Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited. Case Number 18-1174 / DHS reference number 16-J-00184-01 This document is a product of the Homeland Security Systems Engineering and Development Institute (HSSEDI™). Homeland Security Systems Engineering & Development Institute The Homeland Security Act of 2002 (Section 305 of PL 107-296, as codified in 6 U.S.C. 185), herein referred to as the “Act,” authorizes the Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), acting through the Under Secretary for Science and Technology, to establish one or more federally funded research and development centers (FFRDCs) to provide independent analysis of homeland security issues. The MITRE Corporation operates the Homeland Security Systems Engineering and Development Institute (HSSEDI) as an FFRDC for DHS under contract HSHQDC-14-D-00006. The HSSEDI FFRDC provides the government with the necessary systems engineering and development expertise to conduct complex acquisition planning and development; concept exploration, experimentation and evaluation; information technology, communications and cyber security processes, standards, methodologies and protocols; systems architecture and integration; quality and performance review, best practices and performance measures and metrics; and, independent test and evaluation activities. The HSSEDI FFRDC also works with and supports other federal, state, local, tribal, public and private sector organizations that make up the homeland security enterprise. The HSSEDI FFRDC’s research is undertaken by mutual consent with DHS and is organized as a set of discrete tasks. This report presents the results of research and analysis conducted under: HSHQDC-16-J-00184 Next Generation Cyber Infrastructure (NGCI) Apex Cyber Risk Metrics and Threat Model Assessment This HSSEDI task order is to enable the DHS Science and Technology Directorate (S&T) to facilitate improvement of cybersecurity within the Financial Services Sector (FSS). To support NGCI Apex use cases and provide a common frame of reference for community interaction to supplement institution- specific threat models, HSSEDI developed an integrated suite of threat models identifying attacker methods from the level of a single FSS institution up to FSS systems-of-systems, and a corresponding cyber wargaming framework linking technical and business views. HSSEDI assessed risk metrics and risk assessment frameworks, provided recommendations toward development of scalable cybersecurity risk metrics to meet the needs of the NGCI Apex program, and developed representations depicting the interdependencies and data flows within the FSS. The results presented in this report do not necessarily reflect official DHS opinion or policy. For more information about this publication contact: Homeland Security Systems Engineering & Development Institute The MITRE Corporation 7515 Colshire Drive McLean, VA 22102 Email: [email protected] http://www.mitre.org/HSSEDI i Abstract This report provides a survey of cyber threat modeling frameworks, presents a comparative assessment of the surveyed frameworks, and extends an existing framework to serve as a basis for cyber threat modeling for a variety of purposes. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate (S&T) Next Generation Cyber Infrastructure (NGCI) Apex program will use threat modeling and cyber wargaming to inform the development and evaluation of risk metrics, technology foraging, and the evaluation of how identified technologies could decrease risks. A key finding of the assessment was that no existing framework or model was sufficient to meet the needs of the NGCI Apex program. Therefore, this paper also presents a threat modeling framework for the NGCI Apex program, with initial population of that framework. The survey, assessment, and framework as initially populated are general enough to be used by medium-to-large organizations in critical infrastructure sectors, particularly in the Financial Services Sector, seeking to ensure that cybersecurity and resilience efforts consider cyber threats in a rigorous, repeatable way. Key Words 1. Cyber Threat Models 2. Next Generation Cyber Infrastructure (NGCI) 3. Cyber Risk Metrics 4. Cybersecurity 5. Threat Modeling Framework ii This page intentionally left blank iii Table of Contents 1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Key Concepts and Terminology .................................................................................................... 3 1.2 Uses of Threat Modeling ................................................................................................................ 5 1.2.1 Risk Management and Risk Metrics ....................................................................................... 5 1.2.2 Cyber Wargaming .................................................................................................................... 7 1.2.3 Technology Profiling and Technology Foraging ................................................................... 8 1.3 Survey and Assessment Approach............................................................................................... 9 2 Threat Modeling Frameworks and Methodologies ................................................................. 11 2.1 Frameworks for Cyber Risk Management .................................................................................. 11 2.1.1 NIST Framework for Improving Critical Infrastructure Cybersecurity ............................... 11 2.1.2 Publications Produced by the Joint Task Force Transformation Initiative ....................... 13 2.1.3 CBEST Intelligence-Led Cyber Threat Modelling ................................................................ 14 2.1.4 COBIT 5 and Risk IT ............................................................................................................... 15 2.1.5 Topic-Focused Frameworks and Methodologies ................................................................ 15 2.2 Threat Modeling to Support Design Analysis and Testing ....................................................... 20 2.2.1 Draft NIST Special Publication 800-154, Guide to Data-Centric System Threat Modeling20 2.2.2 STRIDE .................................................................................................................................... 20 2.2.3 DREAD .................................................................................................................................... 21 2.2.4 Operationally Critical Threat, Asset, and Vulnerability Evaluation (OCTAVE) ................. 21 2.2.5 Intel’s Threat Agent Risk Assessment (TARA) and Threat Agent Library (TAL) .............. 22 2.2.6 IDDIL/ATC ............................................................................................................................... 22 2.3 Threat Modeling to Support Information Sharing and Security Operations ............................ 23 2.3.1 STIX™ ..................................................................................................................................... 23 2.3.2 OMG Threat / Risk Standards Initiative ................................................................................ 24 2.3.3 PRE-ATT&CK™ ...................................................................................................................... 24 2.3.4 Cyber Threat Framework ....................................................................................................... 24 3 Specific Threat Models...................................................................................................... 26 3.1 Enterprise-Neutral, Technology-Focused .................................................................................. 26 3.1.1 Adversarial Tactics, Techniques, and Common Knowledge (ATT&CK™) ........................ 26 3.1.2 Common Attack Pattern Enumeration and Classification (CAPEC™)............................... 27 3.1.3 Web Application Threat Models ............................................................................................ 28 3.1.4 Invincea Threat Modeling ...................................................................................................... 28 3.1.5 Other Taxonomies and Attack Pattern Catalogs ................................................................. 29 iv 3.1.6 Threat Modeling for Cloud Computing ................................................................................. 30 3.2 Enterprise-Oriented, Technology-Focused ................................................................................ 30 3.2.1 MITRE’s Threat Assessment and Remediation Analysis (TARA) ...................................... 30 3.2.2 NIPRNet/SIPRNet Cyber Security Architecture Review (NSCSAR) .................................... 31 3.2.3 Notional Threat Model for a Large Financial Institution ..................................................... 32 4 Analysis and Assessment ................................................................................................... 34 4.1 Characterizing Threat Models ....................................................................................................
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