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Annual Review 2020 Annual Review 2020 Annual Review 2020 Annual Review 2020 September 2020 Submitted to the Minister for Climate Action, Communication Networks and Transport on 23 September 2020 Climate Change Advisory Council McCumiskey House Richview, Clonskeagh Road, Dublin 14, D14 YR62 Phone: 01 2680180 Email: [email protected] www.climatecouncil.ie ISBN: 978-1-84095-928-4 © Climate Change Advisory Council 2020 Acknowledgements The Climate Change Advisory Council would like to acknowledge the contributions of the Adaptation Committee of the Climate Change Advisory Council; the Secretariat of the Climate Change Advisory Council; Dr. Sabrina Dekker, Dublin City University; Dr. Brian Caulfield, Trinity College Dublin; Dr. Páraic Carroll and Prof. Aoife Ahern, University College Dublin; Dr. Niall Farrell; Claire Lombard; staff and members of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI), Teagasc and the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) in the preparation of the Annual Review 2020. The Climate Change Advisory Council would like to thank Bord na Móna, Jonathan Ryan and M.CO for kind permission to use their photographs on the front cover. The Climate Change Advisory Council would like to thank Brendan O’Brien for his contributions during the preparation of this document. The Council would like to thank Leo Duffy and Yellowstone for their design and typesetting of this Review. Image credits Main Image: Clonwhelan Bog, part of the Bord na Móna Raised Bog Restoration Programme, Image courtesy of Bord na Móna. Flood Barrier Clonmel image courtesy of Jonathan Ryan (@Tipperaryphotos) National Dialogue on Climate Action Regional Gathering Tralee image courtesy of M.CO Climate Change Advisory Council Climate Change Advisory Council – The Climate Change Advisory Council is Adaptation Committee an independent advisory body tasked with At its meeting on 6 April 2016, the Climate assessing and advising on how Ireland Change Advisory Council established an can achieve the transition to a low-carbon, Adaptation Committee to consider matters climate-resilient and environmentally relating to climate change adaptation. sustainable economy. Adaptation Committee Members: The Climate Change Advisory Council Prof. John FitzGerald (Chair) was established on 18 January 2016 Mark Adamson under the Climate Action and Low Carbon Prof. Gerry Boyle (Teagasc) Development Act 2015. Laura Burke (EPA) Climate Change Advisory Council Members: Prof. Robert Devoy Prof. John FitzGerald (Chair) Ciarán Hayes Prof. Alan Barrett (ESRI) Dr. Ina Kelly Prof. Gerry Boyle (Teagasc) Eoin Moran Laura Burke (EPA) Prof. Conor Murphy Prof. Peter Clinch Roger Street Prof. Frank Convery William Walsh (SEAI) Dr. Joseph Curtin Prof. Anna Davies Prof. Ottmar Edenhofer Prof. Alan Matthews William Walsh (SEAI) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY From Planning to Action Executive Summary The Climate Change Advisory Council is an independent advisory body tasked with reviewing national climate policy, progress on the achievement of the national transition objective and progress towards international targets in a cost-effective manner. As set out in the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act 2015, a key task of the Council is to conduct an annual review of progress made over the previous year in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and furthering the transition to a low-carbon, climate-resilient and sustainable economy and society by 2050. This is the Climate Change Advisory Council’s fourth Annual Review of progress on transition. The imperative for climate action remains, despite the understandable immediate focus on Covid-19. Ireland is already seeing the negative impacts of climate change and, regardless of the future success of national or global mitigation measures, adaptation to climate change is essential because of the effects of continuing global emissions. Climate Resilience Climate change is happening, and recent extreme events, such as Storms Ellen and Francis in August 2020 have shown that we are vulnerable to its impacts. 2019 was the ninth consecutive year with temperatures in Ireland above normal. The winter of 2018/2019 was the warmest winter on record in Ireland (119 years). The need to prepare for climate change impacts and to reduce and manage climate change risks through a combination of mitigation and adaptation responses, remains under-recognised in wider Government policy. To better prepare for future climate extremes and limit their impact we need to move from adaptation planning to adaptation action by implementing the priorities of existing sectoral adaptation plans and local adaptation strategies although gaps including in the financial system still exist. The decisions of policymakers, households, businesses and investors must evolve in recognition of the changes in the frequency and intensity of weather extremes and in changes in average conditions into the future. However, those most at risk from climate change may also be among the most vulnerable in society, without the capacity to prepare or make the necessary investments. Local authorities must integrate climate action into their existing functions with adequate resourcing to deliver on this role. The role of spatial planning in ensuring development does not occur in inappropriate locations also remains essential. Mitigation, Transition and the National Policy Position Ireland will not meet its 2020 targets and will require huge efforts to meet its existing 2030 targets, notwithstanding progress made in the development of the Climate Action Plan. Still more challenges could emerge from new targets or obligations arising out of the proposed EU Climate Law and the ambition contained in the Programme for Government. The Council emphasises the need to increase implementation and delivery, not only to meet EU targets but also to put Ireland on track to meet our 2050 ambitions of achieving net-zero emissions. National emissions reduced by 0.1% from 2017 to 2018 largely due to progress in the Electricity sector. Other sectors have not delivered emissions reductions on the scale required. i CLIMATE CHANGE ADVISORY COUNCIL | ANNUAL REVIEW 2020 The most recent Environmental Protection Agency projections of greenhouse gas emissions consider actions contained within the Climate Action Plan. The projections demonstrate that Ireland will only meet its existing emissions reduction targets with a full and successful implementation of all measures in the Plan. There is no room for complacency. It is noted that additional measures within the recent Programme for Government are not included. The Council believes there is a need to consider the implementation of additional measures as a contingency for under performance of the measures within the Climate Action Plan and for increased ambition under a new EU Climate Law. Key Council Recommendations Just Transition All climate action policies, including those directed at household level, must be consistent with a Just Transition and maximise economic and social opportunities. The costs of decarbonisation must be fairly distributed across the population, ensuring that those on lower incomes are not disadvantaged. Financial incentives are not the only motivator for climate action. Central to developing policies for Just Transition is continual public participation. This may be challenging, but it is essential. A dialogue of blame for emissions is not an appropriate approach and does not foster cooperation. Recognising the valuable role that communities, organisations and groups can play in tackling climate change challenges is a good platform for action. Public Participation Without citizen engagement, public acceptance of ambitious climate action diminishes. There needs to be a more coherent and focused approach to public participation in terms of both mitigation and adaptation. Engaging the public and communities in relation to climate action should be an on-going process not a once off. Effort must also be made to reach beyond existing climate networks. Engagement with stakeholders and appropriate communication are important to build ownership and support for climate action. Although there was progress in early development of a national dialogue, the impact has been somewhat limited and local in scope. A more strategic approach to public engagement with a focus on awareness, participation and activation is required. Adaptation Successful adaptation is a key part of Ireland’s transition to a low-carbon, climate-resilient economy and society. Government must bring more coherence to how the different adaptation plans and strategies are prioritised and funded, how the costs of extreme weather are assessed, how our cities are resourced to prepare and how they learn from the experiences of others. Furthermore, communities, businesses and households will need to take individual action to adapt to climate change. ii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Carbon Tax The Council recommends the carbon tax be raised to E35 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent in Budget 2021, rising to E100 per tonne by 2030. This accelerated increase reflects the fall in fossil fuel prices over the last year, which would otherwise lead to an increase in emissions. The carbon tax is an effective instrument in delivering long term emissions reductions. Negative impacts on the poorest households can and should be offset by effective use of the carbon tax revenue. The Council welcomes the increase in the carbon tax and earmarking of the associated revenue for climate action in Budget 2020 and the commitment
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