Issue 6 I January 2010 The Market Monitor Trends of staple food prices in vulnerable countries

This bulletin provides information on price changes for the most commonly consumed staples and their potential impacts on the cost of the food basket. Staples contribute 40 – 80 percent of energy intake for the most vulnerable population groups in developing countries. Therefore, even a small increase in staple food prices has a high impact on overall food consumption, especially when the food basket is composed of very few food items.

The bulletin covers 58 countries over the period October to December 2009.1

Highlights

• Overall: Prices of the main staple food commodities have continuously decreased in most of the countries over the last three months compared to the previous quarter. However, in the majority of the countries, the cost of the food basket is still higher compared to their long-term averages (table 3). In 73 percent of the countries monitored, the overall cost of the food basket is more than 20 percent above the 5-year averages. This is most evident in Ethiopia, Malawi, Northern Sudan, Somalia, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

• Asia: Except in Bangladesh where the overall cost of the food basket increased by 13 percent compared to the previous quarter, rice and wheat prices either remained stable or declined during the last quarter. These two items provide 81 percent of caloric intake for households in Bangladesh. In general, prices remain significantly high in comparison to the long-term averages.

• West Africa: Cassava, sorghum and rice prices rose significantly in Benin and Côte d’Ivoire. Prices continue to be high compared to their long-term averages particularly for sorghum in Benin (191 percent) and rice in Côte d’Ivoire (155 percent). For the rest of the region, staple food prices declined in most of the countries when compared to the previous quarter. Fighting Hunger Worldwide • Southern, Eastern and Central Africa: In Burundi, Congo DR and Zimbabwe, prices are still experiencing significant increases. For example, in Burundi, the price of sweet potatoes rose by 111 percent since the last quarter. In all the countries, except in Madagascar, prices remain very high compared to their long term averages. However, staple food prices remained stable or decreased in most of the countries during the last quarter.

• Latin America and Caribbean: Haiti and Peru continue to face prices above their long-term averages. Haiti may now face a steep increase in prices following the earthquake. In the majority of the countries, staple food prices returned to their normal levels compared to their 5-year averages.

• Middle East, Central Asia and Eastern Europe: Prices in Yemen increased significantly which may be due to the recent deterioration of the security situation. Compared to their long-term average, prices are significantly high in Iraq, Palestine and Tajikistan, in the range of 24 - 84 percent. However, staple food prices were either stable or decreasing in most of the countries during the last quarter.

• Stand-Alone Countries: Staple food prices declined in Southern Sudan while they were increasing in Northern Sudan. However, compared to their long-term averages, prices continue to be very high in both Northern and Southern Sudan.

Table 1 summarizes the overview of price trends; Table 2 presents the evolution of purchasing power in selected countries; Table 3 provides more detailed figures by country and commodity.

1. It is based on price datasets collected and collated by WFP country offices and FAO. The Market Monitor I Trends of staple food prices in vulnerable countries territory Upward Afghanistan Bangladesh India Indonesia Laos Myanmar Nepal Pakistan Philippines Sri Lanka Occupied Palestinian Tajikistan Benin Burkina Faso Cape Verde Chad Côte d'Ivoire Mali Mauritania North Nigeria Burundi Ethiopia Kenya Lesotho Malawi Mozambique Somalia Uganda Zambia Zimbabwe Haiti Peru Southern Sudan Azerbaijan Iraq Azerbaijan Guinea Guinea Bissau Senegal Madagascar Rwanda Bolivia Colombia Dominican Republic Ecuador El Salvador Nicaragua where the data isn't available to calculate 5-years average. average. to calculate 5-years where the data isn't available Downward Stable Georgia Upward Bangladesh Yemen Benin Côte d'Ivoire Burundi Congo DRC Zimbabwe 8 1 12 36* Northern Sudan Northern Sudan Bhutan India Indonesia Laos Myanmar Nepal Pakistan Philippines Sri Lanka Armenia Azerbaijan Iran Iraq Burkina Faso Cape Verde Chad Guinea Mauritania Mali Niger North Nigeria Senegal Ethiopia Kenya Lesotho Madagascar Rwanda Somalia Uganda Zambia Bolivia Costa Rica Dominican Republic Ecuador Haiti Nicaragua Panama Peru Change from last quarter Change from 5-year average territory Downward Stable Afghanistan Georgia Occupied Palestinian Tajikistan Guinea Bissau leone Sierra Malawi Mozambique Colombia El Salvador Guatemala Honduras 13 38 Southern Sudan Price trends for main staple food commodities (change from last quarter) Table 1. Table OMBª – Asia OMC – Middle East, Central Asia and Eastern Europe OMD – West Africa OMJ – Southern, Eastern and Central Africa OMS – Stand-Alone Countries Number of countries OMP – Latin America and Caribbean ª The acronyms OMB, OMC, OMD, OMJ, OMP, OMS used throughout the bulletin refer to names of WFP regions. OMP, OMJ, OMC, OMD, OMB, ª The acronyms Leone and Yemen Sierra Panama, Iran, * Comparison are not done for Armenia, Bhutan, Congo DRC, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras,

2 Issue 6 I January 2010

Stability in the price of wheat in November compared to Stability in the price of wheat November October 2009. for the religious Increase in the demand of livestock feast of Tabaski. Slight decrease in price of imported rice Freetown stable. kept September while the wages Increase in the demand of livestock from Gulf States. Increase in the demand of livestock Country fact sheet Evolution of purchasing power Main raisons The terms of trade between wheat and casual labour The terms of trade in by 2% on average, slightly, daily salary improved compared to October 2009. November between areas, terms of trade In the most vulnerable compared to in November and millet improved livestock October 2009. in Freetown between labour wages The terms of trade and imported rice increased slightly from August to September 2009. and sorghum between livestock The terms of trade in November producing area improved in the livestock compared to October 2009. 4 2 Evolution of household purchasing power 5 This table includes information from bulletins mainly prepared by WFP country offices. 3 Table 2. Table Countries Note: Afghanistan Niger Sierra Leone Sudan 2. Afghanistan Market Price Bulletin December 2009, WFP Country Office. 2. Afghanistan Market 3. Bulletins from SIMA and Albichir N0. 1, November 2009, WFP, Government and Partners. Government 2009, WFP, 3. Bulletins from SIMA and Albichir N0. 1, November and Cash Crops) Quarter 3, 2009, WFP. Analysis Bulletin (Major Food Leone Market 4. Sierra and Partners. Update, issue 24, December 2009, Government 5. Sudan Monthly Market

3 The Market Monitor I Trends of staple food prices in vulnerable countries Remarks Low impact with price trend downward of wheat and rice High impact with high price increase of rice High price increase of maize Low impact with slight price increase of rice. Low impact with price trend downward of rice Low impact with stable price trend of rice Low impact with slight price increase of rice Low impact with slight price increase of rice Low impact with price trend downward of all items. Low impact with slight price increase of rice Low impact with price trend downward of wheat and rice x k k k k k k x n k Price staples trend of the main 18 24 25 36 24 25 29 39 23 35 Cumulative impact from 5-years average food basket (%) 0 0 0 2 -1 -2 -7 -1 13 -10 quarter Cumulative Contribution to the cost of impact of the % Change from previous quarter (Column E) > -10% and < +10% % Change from previous quarter (Column E) > +10% % Change from previous quarter (Column E) < -10% 8 6 41 23 14 55 36 47 39 52 72 70 89 83 49 64 66 N/A N/A N/A k x n Quarterly last 5-years (% Change) change from Price Trend Codes 8 4 1 7 3 2 -2 -1 26 13 16 10 -12 -27 -45 -14 -18 -14 -14 -14 last year Quarterly (% Change) change from 6 6 4 7 2 8 3 -9 -2 -1 34 24 10 13 -48 -11 -28 -14 -17 -14 Monthly last year (% Change) change from 2 4 1 0 4 1 4 -7 -1 -1 -4 -1 29 10 15 -15 -13 -15 -13 -10 last quarter (% Change) Change from 9 3 7 58 22 72 31 21 51 64 57 37 14 37 46 39 15 (%) Caloric contribution food Main staple Wheat Rice Boro-HYV-Coarse Ata-Packet Soyabeans Rice Wheat flour Maize Rice Wheat Rice Rice Rice Rice Wheat flour Wheat flour Rice Rice Rice Wheat flour Magnitude of quarterly price changes and contribution to the cost food basket, by country Countries

Low price impact on the cost of the food basket (< 5%) Low price impact on the cost of food basket (5-10%) impact on the cost of food basket Moderate (10-20%) High price impact on the cost of food basket (> 20%) high price impact on the cost of food basket Very Bhutan India Indonesia Laos Myanmar Nepal Pakistan Philippines Sri Lanka Afghanistan Bangladesh OMB-Asia AB C D E F G H I J K L and commodity Table 3: Table Impact Codes Regions

4 Issue 6 I January 2010 Remarks Low impact with high price increase of products cassava Low impact with price trend downward of all items Low impact with slight price increase of rice Low impact with slight price increase of millet High impact with very high price increase of rice and cassava Low impact with price downward trends of all items Low impact with price trend downward of imported rice and millet Low impact with slight price increase of wheat Low impact with price trend downward of millet, rice and maize Low impact with slight price increase of millet Low impact with slight price increase of sorghum Low impact with price trend downward of all items Low impact with price trend downward of local rice x x k k k k k k k k k n n Price staples trend of the main 8 2 3 11 20 39 19 25 24 12 10 12 N/A Cumulative impact from 5-years average food basket (%) 2 2 0 0 3 0 -5 -1 -2 -4 -8 11 -13 quarter Cumulative Contribution to the cost of impact of the 5 8 5 0 -5 25 25 30 41 41 19 18 27 19 19 16 23 17 36 40 40 38 33 24 35 23 20 11 41 53 97 48 55 34 37 12 -12 -38 N/A N/A N/A 155 191 Quarterly last 5-years (% Change) change from 5 0 4 0 2 3 1 0 6 7 9 -3 -5 -2 -1 -5 -2 -3 -9 -5 20 14 67 41 14 11 -28 -11 -30 -24 -10 -13 -10 -11 -11 -14 -19 -38 -12 -11 N/A N/A 104 last year Quarterly (% Change) change from 0 3 8 0 7 7 9 2 0 6 -2 -1 -6 -5 -4 -3 -3 -1 -3 -5 -7 63 28 16 20 16 60 12 18 10 -11 -20 -22 -17 -12 -15 -22 -42 -13 -24 -11 N/A N/A Monthly last year (% Change) change from 4 1 4 1 0 1 2 4 3 0 3 6 -8 -7 -6 -7 -9 -7 -4 -5 -3 -2 -1 -4 -4 -4 -4 -1 11 10 11 16 48 29 12 11 12 -30 -36 -10 -16 -19 -22 last quarter (% Change) Change from 6 5 4 7 6 8 6 5 9 2 9 7 9 8 8 6 27 22 15 20 15 13 18 15 17 12 36 38 30 11 20 20 14 10 41 12 13 11 31 40 21 16 11 (%) Caloric contribution food Main staple Maize products Cassava Rice Sorghum Sorghum Millet Maize Rice Rice Wheat flour Maize Sorghum Millet Maize Import rice Rice Cassava Maize Local rice oil Palm Import rice Maize Millet Wheat Wheat Import rice Millet Import rice Sorghum Maize Sorghum Millet Rice Maize Local rice oil Palm Millet Sorghum Import rice Maize Import rice Maize Millet Countries

Benin Burkina Faso Guinea Bissau Mauritania North Nigeria Cape Verde Chad Côte d’Ivoire Guinea Mali Niger Senegal Leone Sierra OMD-West Africa OMD-West AB C D E F G H I J K L Regions

5 The Market Monitor I Trends of staple food prices in vulnerable countries Remarks Very high impact Very high price with very increase of all items high impact with Very high price very increase of all items Low impact with price downward trend of all items Low impact with stable price trend of maize Low impact with price downward trend of maize Low impact with price downward trend of rice Low impact with price downward trend of maize Low impact with price downward trend of maize Low impact with price downward trend of beans Low impact with price downward trend of maize, wheat and rice Low impact with slight price increase of maize Low impact with price downward trend of maize impact Moderate high price with very increase of maize x x n k k k k k k n k n k Price staples trend of the main 6 1 17 72 45 31 46 18 40 19 N/A 175 143 Cumulative impact from 5-years average food basket (%) 0 1 1 -3 -1 -5 -8 -2 -3 -4 35 39 10 quarter Cumulative Contribution to the cost of impact of the 3 53 97 25 73 87 33 61 97 69 36 86 85 30 89 71 N/A N/A 108 408 216 123 117 296 256 Quarterly last 5-years (% Change) change from 2 4 2 2 3 -8 -5 -8 -3 -1 14 38 17 45 22 21 -32 -32 -29 -30 -34 -63 -61 -57 123 last year Quarterly (% Change) change from 9 0 4 -8 -8 -6 -4 -3 15 78 28 29 22 10 10 -32 -32 -29 -59 -54 -34 -38 -69 164 109 Monthly last year (% Change) change from 0 2 7 3 -7 -9 -1 -2 -9 -5 -9 -6 -8 -5 29 48 22 64 26 22 24 17 -16 -14 111 last quarter (% Change) Change from 8 9 7 18 16 16 13 55 13 21 18 10 36 57 49 52 22 10 15 29 18 10 11 56 43 (%) Caloric contribution food Main staple Sweet potatoes Sweet Beans flour Cassava Maize products Cassava Maize Maize Wheat Sorghum Maize Domestic rice Maize Beans Maize Sorghum Maize Wheat flour Import red rice Beans Maize Maize Maize Maize Maize Import rice Countries

Burundi Congo DRC Ethiopia Kenya Lesotho Malawi Mozambique Somalia Madagascar Rwanda Uganda Zambia Zimbabwe OMJ-Easthern, Southern and Central Africa Central and Southern OMJ-Easthern, AB C D E F G H I J K L Regions

6 Issue 6 I January 2010 Remarks Low impact with stable price trend of wheat flour Low impact with price downward trend of all items Low impact with price moderate increase of rice Low impact with slight price increase of rice Low impact with price downward trend of rice and wheat flour Low impact with price downward trend of all items Low impact with price downward trend of maize Low impact with price downward trend of all items Low impact with price trend downward and rice of maize Low impact with price trend downward and rice of maize Low impact with stable price trend of rice Low impact with price downward trend of all items x x x k k k k k k x k k Price staples trend of the main 5 3 5 5 0 1 17 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A Cumulative impact from 5-years average food basket (%) 0 0 2 0 0 -9 -2 -7 -1 -1 -5 -4 quarter Cumulative Contribution to the cost of impact of the 1 4 3 0 0 6 -4 11 30 22 31 27 55 45 41 17 40 54 21 21 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Quarterly last 5-years (% Change) change from 4 0 1 0 -2 -1 -4 -5 -8 -2 -1 -6 47 -26 -18 -29 -30 -33 -17 -13 -36 -15 -23 -34 -21 -21 -17 -12 -20 last year Quarterly (% Change) change from 0 1 0 1 0 -5 -4 -4 -6 -8 -1 -7 18 40 -25 -29 -34 -22 -13 -36 -15 -20 -21 -17 -32 -20 -26 -13 -22 Monthly last year (% Change) change from 6 1 1 0 0 0 -5 -5 -2 -8 -2 -9 -2 -1 -2 -7 -5 -1 -1 13 20 -28 -11 -15 -26 -17 -24 -10 -25 last quarter (% Change) Change from 8 5 5 5 4 6 6 9 18 11 11 13 12 17 17 19 12 32 40 23 13 12 29 23 21 25 20 11 11 (%) Caloric contribution food Main staple Wheat flour Rice Maize Rice Maize Wheat flour Rice Maize Rice Rice Wheat flour Maize Sorghum Bean Rice Maize Maize Rice Maize Rice Rice Maize Import rice Wheat flour Domestic maize Rice Maize Wheat flour Potatoes Countries

Bolivia Colombia Costa Rica Dominican Republic Ecuador El Salvador Haiti Nicaragua Guatemala Honduras Panama Peru OMP-Latin America and Caribbean and America OMP-Latin AB C D E F G H I J K L Regions

7 The Market Monitor I Trends of staple food prices in vulnerable countries Remarks Low impact with slight price increase of wheat flour Low impact with price moderate increase of wheat flour Low impact with price downward trend of wheat flour Low impact with price moderate increase of rice Low impact with price downward trend of all items Low impact with price downward trend of wheat flour and rice Low impact with price downward trend of wheat High impact with high price very increase of wheat impact Moderate high price with very increase of sorghum Low impact with price downward trend of all items x x x x n n k k k k Price staples trend of the main 3 18 24 28 61 31 N/A N/A -12 Cumulative impact from 5-years average food basket (%) 8 13 N/A 0 -4 -8 -5 -3 -6 14 quarter Cumulative Contribution to the cost of impact of the 5 82 73 56 27 24 84 38 48 -26 137 109 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Quarterly last 5-years (% Change) change from 3 -9 -9 -1 -6 13 23 41 19 55 74 -10 -12 -20 -17 N/A N/A N/A last year Quarterly (% Change) change from 7 8 9 0 5 -4 -9 -4 43 26 64 49 -10 -10 -16 N/A N/A N/A Monthly last year (% Change) change from 2 5 5 0 9 0 8 -5 -9 -5 15 27 23 -14 -14 -11 -13 -25 last quarter (% Change) Change from 8 4 9 7 7 48 50 46 10 36 15 36 15 58 51 30 15 30 (%) Caloric contribution food Main staple Wheat Maize Wheat flour Wheat flour Maize Imported rice Oil Wheat flour Imported rice Wheat flour Rice oil Olive Wheat Sorghum Wheat Millet Sorghum Millet Countries

Southern Sudan Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Iran Iraq Occupied Palestinian territory Tajikistan Yemen Northern Sudan

OMC - Middle East, Central Asia and Eastern Europe Eastern and Asia Central East, Middle - OMC OMS AB C D E F G H I J K L Regions

8 Issue 6 I January 2010 arkets included Dantokpa Faramana, N'Gourma, Fara, Dori, Fada Djibo, Bittou, Bogandé, Botou, Dandé, Diapaga, Diébougou, Djibasso, Banfora, Manga, Namounou, N'Dorola, Léo, Koudougou, Kongoussi, Hamélé, Kaya, Gaoua, Gorom-Gorom, Gounghin, Guelwongo, Zabré Tougouri, Tougan, Tenkodogo, Solenzo, Sankaryaré, Pouytenga, Paglayiri, Niéneta, Ouahigouya, Niangoloko, Santiago S.Vincente, S.Antanao, Abeche, Bol, Moundou, N'djamena, Sarh Odiénné, Duékoué Danané, Guiglo, Katiola, Bouaké, Man, Abengourou, Adjamé, Daloa, Ferké, Korhogo, Kindia, Labe, N'zerekore Conakry, Bandim Nouakchott Ba, Mopti Digue, Segou Centre, Sikasso Tombouctou Centre, Kidal, Koulikoro Kayes Gao, Bamako, Commune, , N'guigmi, , Dosso Commune, , In'gall, Tchirozine, Dan-Issa, Sabon-Machi, El-Kolta, , , Aguié, , Loga, Mokko, Gaya, Commune, Fadama, Commune, Tounfafi, Abalack, Badaguichiri, , Konni, , , Maradi-Commune, Bakin-Birgi, , , , Tillabéri commune, Torodi, Tera, Filingué, Gothèye, Ballayara, , , commune, , , Gouré, Koundoumawa, Matamba, Kayanza, Karuzi, Cibitoke, bururi, Cankuzo, Muyinga, Ngozi, Ruyigi, Bubanza, Gitega, Kirundo, Bujumbura, Mwaro Rutana, Muramvya, Kindu, Kinshasa, Lubumbashi, Mbandaka, Uvira Bunia, Kalemi, Bukavu, Addis Ababa, Gonder, Dangur, Turmi, Karati, Ebinat, D.Dawa, Abi Adi, Sekota, Babile, Gordamole, Merti, Wekro, Abomsa, Beddenno, Hossana, Delo, Bale Robe, Jimma, Nazareth, Shashemene, Baher Dar, Desse, Ambo, Mekele, zuriya, Awassa Gode, Jijiga, Wonago, Tsebri, May Alamata, Korem, Wekro, Yabelo, Wolenchiti, Bedessa, Deder, Aroresa, Derashe, Hirna, Sodo, ketema, Harar Bati, Dire Dawa, Kobo, Gamo Gofa, Deberesina, Shoa Robit, Assela Gonder, Mota, Ambo, Ajeber, Gololcha, Kersa, Amaro, Barmoi, Bo, Dove Court, Kailahun, Kenema, Lumley, Makeni, Port Loko, Wellington Loko, Port Makeni, Lumley, Kenema, Court, Kailahun, Dove Barmoi, Bo, Jibia, Illela, Mai Adua, Damassak Tilène 1 3 5 4 1 1 9 4 1 38 12 48 16 56 Number of markets Names of m Names and number of markets covered by country

Countries Benin Burkina Faso Cape Verde Chad Côte d’Ivoire Guinea Guinea Bissau Mauritania Mali Niger Burundi Congo DRC 9 Ethiopia Sierra LeoneSierra 9 North Nigeria Senegal

and Central Africa Central and

OMD-West Africa OMD-West OMJ-Easthern, Southern OMJ-Easthern, Annex: Regions

9 The Market Monitor I Trends of staple food prices in vulnerable countries arkets included Kampala, Jinja, Masaka, Mbarara, Gulu, Arua Jinja, Masaka, Mbarara, Kampala, Bamian, Maimanan, Nili, Ghor Gerzet, Faizabad, Mazar, Jalalabad, Herat, Kandahar, Kabul, Gelephu, Samtse markets central All provinces Kitui, Lodwar (Turkara), Madera, Marsabit Madera, (Turkara), Kitui, Lodwar Ariary Chintheche, Chilumba, Chimbiya, Bowe, Bvumbwe, Chamama, Chatoloma, Chikwawa, Balaka, Bangula, Bembeke, Lilongwe, Limbe, Kasungu, Kasiya, Embangweni, Hewe, Jali, Jenda, Karonga, Dwangwa, Chitipa, Dowa, Chiradzulu, Mchinji, Migowi, Misuku, Mitundu, Mkanda, Mangochi, Mayaka, Liwonde, Lizulu, Luchenza, Lunzu, Madisi, Malomo, Mzimba, Mzulu, Nambuma, Namwera, Mwanza, Mpamba, Mponela, Mtakataka, Muloza, Mwansambo, Monkeybay, Nsanje, Nsundwe, Ntaja, Ntcheu, Ntchisi, Nkhoma, Nkhotakota, Nkhatabay, Ngabu, Nkhamenya, Neno, Nanjiri, Nchalo, Zomba Off, Turn Thete, Thondwe, Tsangano Salima, Santhe, Sharpevaley, Nthalire, Ntonda, Phalombe, Rumphi, Gorongoza, Manica, Nampula, Lichinga Chokwe, Beira, Maputo, markets central All provinces Buale, Doble, Mogadishu, Afmadow, Marka, Qoryoley, Jowhar, Luuq, Afgoye, Xudur, Belet Weyne, Baidoa, Bardera, Galkayo Dhusamareb, Hargeisa, Abudwaq, Burao, Garowe, Lasanod, Borama, Erigavo, Bossaso, Hagar, Jamame, Kismayo, Katete, Kasempa, Kasama, Kaoma, Kalulushi, Urban, Kalomo, Kabwe Rural, Chingola, Chipata, Choma, Isoka, Kabwe Lusaka Urban, Luwingu, Lundazi, Lusaka Rural, Luangwa,Luanshya, Kitwe, Livingstone, Luangwa, Kawambwa, Mwense, Mwinilunga, Nchelenge, Mumbwa, Mpika, Mufulira, Mansa, Mazabuka, Mbala, Mkushi, Mongu, Monze, Senanga, Serenje, Solwezi Samfya, Petauke, Ndola Rural, Harare Siriajganj, Sylhet Dhaka, Khulna, Shariatpur, Jaipur, Hyderabad, Chennai, Delhi, Guwahati, Bangalore, Bhopal, Bhubaneshwar, Agartala, Ahmedabad, Aizwal, Shillong, Shimla, Trivandrum Mumbai, Patna, Lucknow, Kolkata, Champasack Khammuane, Saravan, Savannakhet, Sayabuly, Oudomxay, Vientiane, Luangprabang, markets central All provinces 4 1 7 All 18 72 27 39 Number of markets Names of m

Countries Uganda 6 Afghanistan 11 BhutanIndonesia 2 66 Lesotho All markets central All provinces ZimbabweIndia 1 Kenya Madagascar Malawi Mozambique Rwanda Somalia Zambia Bangladesh 5 LaosMyanmar All 8

OMJ-Easthern, Southern and Central Africa Central and Southern OMJ-Easthern, OMB-Asia Regions

10 Issue 6 I January 2010 arkets included Port-au-Prince, Cap-Haitien, Cayes, Jeremie, Gonaives, Jacmel, Hinche, Port de Paix, Ouanaminthe de Paix, Jacmel, Hinche, Port Jeremie, Gonaives, Cap-Haitien, Cayes, Port-au-Prince, markets central All provinces Managua Tehran Bethlehem, Hebron, North Gaza, Miedel South Gaza & Al-Bireh, Jericho, Nablus, Ramallah Qalqiliya, Jenin, Tulkarm, Kurgan-Tyube Dushanbe, Gharm, Khorog, Kujand, Taiz Aden, Hodieda, Sa'ada, Sana'a, Soqatra, Cochabamba, Santa Cruz La Paz, Bogota, Cali Barranquilla, markets central All provinces Santo Domingo Loja, Cuenca Machala, Ambato, Manta, Esmeraldas, Guayaquil, Quito, markets central All provinces Lima Eddein, Damazine Elgenina, Nyala, AlFashir, ElObeid, Kadugli, Kosti, Kassala, Gedaref, Diem_Arab, Mayan Malakal, Malakia, Malualkon, Mabior, Konyokonyo, Jau, Kapoeta, Hajar, Custom, Gokmachar, Bor, Town, Aweil Wau Rumbek, Pulmok, Rubkona, Nyamlel, (Gogrial East), Gogrial West, Rual Baghdad markets central All provinces markets central All provinces Auchham, Bajura, Banke, Dhankuta, Dolpa, Humla, Jumla, Kailali, Kaski, Kathmandu, Morang, Parsa, Rolpa, Rupandehi Rupandehi Rolpa, Parsa, Morang, Kathmandu, Kaski, Dhankuta, Dolpa, Humla, Jumla, Kailali, Banke, Auchham, Bajura, markets central All provinces Vavuniya Mulaitivu, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Jaffna, Kilinochchi, Mannar, Ampara, Vanadzor Yerevan, markets central All provinces Rustavi, Martvili, Mestia, Mtskheta, Ozurgeti, Poti, Kutaisi, Kobuleti, Khobi, Khulo, Batumi, Chkhorotsku, Gali, Gori, Keda, Zugdidi Tsalenjikha, Shuakhevi, Sokhumi, Tbilisi, Telavi, Sagarejo, 8 2 All 11 19 14 22 Number of markets Names of m

Countries Haiti 9 HondurasNicaragua All 1 Iran territory Occupied Palestinian Colombia 3 Costa Rica 1 All PanamaNorthern Sudan Southern Sudan All 14 Tajiskistan 5 Tajiskistan YemenDominican RepublicEcuador 6 1 8 Peru 1 Nepal Philippines Sri Lanka Armenia IraqGeorgia 1 El Salvador Guatemala All All Pakistan Pakistan Azerbaijan 5 Quetta Peshawar, Lahore, Multan, Karachi, All Bolivia 3

and Eastern Europe Eastern and

OMB-Asia Caribbean and America OMP-Latin OMS OMC - Middle East, Central Asia Central East, Middle - OMC Regions

11 Approach

The analysis is based on quarterly price indices6 of the main caloric contributors to household food consumption. It uses: i) The price change from last quarter calculated as a percentage change from the precedent quarter. Real prices are calculated by dividing each quarterly price by its 5-year average. The change between the two quarters is reported in column E (Table 2). ii) The monthly (year-on-year) price change calculated as a percentage change from 12 months earlier. Column F (Table 2) reflects the percentage change of the most recent monthly price data available (e.g. November 2008) compared with the same month of the previous year (i.e. November 2007). iii) The quarterly price change from the last quarter calculated as the quarterly percentage changes from the corresponding seasonal price of last year, (Column G). This average percentage change indicates whether the price has changed from the recent quarter compared to the same quarter of the previous year. iv) The quarterly price change from the last 5-years calculated as the quarterly percentage change (say from September to November 2008) from the corresponding seasonal average prices of the last 5 years (Column H). This estimate indicates whether there is a structural shift of the current price from its long- term seasonal pattern.7

The percentage changes of these quarterly price indices indicate the extent to which recent price changes can be considered normal or abnormal as compared to the quarter before. Column D displays the caloric contribution of each food item to households’ total energy intake.

Assuming that the caloric contribution is a proxy of the relative importance of the food item in the food basket8, the likely impact of the last quarter average price change on the cost of the food basket is captured in column I (i.e. the percentage price change in column E weighted by the caloric contribution of the food item in column D). The long-term likely impact is presented in column J (i.e. the percentage price change in column H weighted by the caloric contribution of the food item in column D). The likely impact of price changes is considered low when the estimated cumulative percentage impact on the cost of the food basket is below 5 percent (Column J). Between 5 percent and 10 percent it is considered moderate. Above 10 percent the likely impact on the cost of the food basket is considered high and very high above 20 percent. Households with diverse calorie sources are likely to be less affected by price rises than households with a single calorie source, unless significant price increases are witnessed for each major caloric contributor of the food basket.

While this approach can be used for early warning, results should be interpreted with caution as they do not capture the impact of the long-term trend in food prices. Furthermore, the approach measures only direct impacts while an indirect impact is not accounted for. For instance, substitution and income effects due to price changes are disregarded. Similarly, it does not provide insights into the causes of the price increases. Finally, this approach does not account for the severity of the likely impact which may differ between households due to different incomes and food baskets by wealth or livelihoods groups and coping capacity.

6. Prices are calculated as indices, using reference years, i.e. last year to capture 12-month percentage changes and last 5 years to capture percentage changes from the long term patterns. 7. Prices normally vary throughout a year due to seasonal patterns of the production cycle. Accounting for seasonality helps differentiating between normal seasonal price variations with additional changes which can be considered abnormal, depending on the magnitude of those changes. 8. Caloric contributions are based on FAO 2001-2003 estimates. Comparing FAO estimates of calorie contribution of each food item with a study by Reardon (1993) for selected countries in Africa, it appears in rural areas that the majority of households get most of their calorie intake from a few food items. The national patterns will likely reflect the rural patterns, assuming most of households leave in rural and semi-urban areas in the developing countries.

For more information, contact: Joyce Luma. Chief, Food Security Analysis Service [email protected] Issa Sanogo. Programme Adviser, Market Specialist [email protected]

World Food Programme The Spanish Government provides financial Via Cesare Giulio Viola,68/70 00148 Rome, Italy support for the preparation of The Market Monitor. www.wfp.org/food-security