www.cubanews.com ISSN 1073-7715

Volume 6 Number 2 THE MIAMI HERALD PUBLISHING COMPANY February 1998

Editor’s Note MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS CIA Trade Report When Cuba Opens Up... After a wait of literally years, the pope has come and gone. Now the real wait As the Cuban economy recovers, trade Some U.S. port authorities are getting begins in earnest. with overseas partners continues to improve.ready for the day when the embargo Before the pope’s visit, Cuba watchers The annual report prepared by the U.S. becomes history and the country begins to and Cubans were abuzz with speculation Central Intelligence Agency shows a 17.8 trade with Cuba. Which ports are closest? about the pope’s visit. Would there be overall increase for 1996. The trade deficit Which are likely to do best? What are they demonstrations? Would the police pre- grew as well, however. likely to ship? vent people from attending Mass? See Trade & Commerce, Pages 6 & 7 See Trade & Commerce, Page 11 Fidel Castro to all outward signs appeared the gracious host. In a move either diabolical in its cleverness or con- Embargo Breakthrough? CEPAL Report ciliatory in its openness, depending on your view, Castro made certain the When even conservative U.S. Sen. Jesse The report of the Economic Commission pope’s appearances were packed by pub- Helms is willing to talk about shipping morefor Latin America (CEPAL) on how the licly encouraging everyone, believer or food and medicine to Cuba, it’s time to thinkregion’s economies performed in 1997 says not, to show up. The resulting crowds that a softening of the embargo is possible Cuba’s “stabilization” program is improving, made it impossible to say for certain that after all. but there’s plenty of room for improvement. attendance at a papal Mass was a political See Helms-Burton, Page 4 See The Economy, Page 12 statement. Everything was televised. The pope, as predicted, denounced the U.S. embargo. He also pleaded for the U.S. Chamber Supports Move Friends Once Again release of political prisoners. Castro Some say Helms is just trying to head off Most of the countries in Latin America smiled, took the pope’s arm. They shook an even bigger loophole proposed in legisla-followed the U.S. lead and broke diplomatic hands. tion filed in Congress. The U.S. Chamber ofrelations with Cuba in the 1960s. Now, most Now we wait to see if anything will Commerce is supporting this bill. have mended fences with their Caribbean change. At this writing there has been no neighbor. Guatemala is the latest. release of political prisoners, no new eco- See Washington Report, Page 5 nomic reforms introduced. See International, Page 2 But the pope’s visit did have impact Poor Prospects Population Trends elsewhere. Jesse Helms, the Republican senator and co-author of the Helms- For Joutel, the Canadian mining compa- The economic crisis and the high rate of Burton law, and the Cuban American ny, expectations of rich finds in Cuba have abortion have combined to keep Cuba’s National Foundation have teamed to pro- not come true. Its once vast holdings have population growth nearly stagnant. The use pose that U.S. food aid be earmarked for been substantially reduced, and operations of “menstrual regulators” is the latest trend Cuba, as long as the Cuban government may shrink even further while hard times in birth control. last. is not the distributor. The idea was reject- See Demographics, Page 10 ed by Castro, but opponents of the U.S. See Mining, Page 8 line saw a change — at last there was an acknowledgement that the embargo has adversely affected Cuba’s poorest. INSIDE Hope for change in Cuba has been on a roller coaster the last few years. There International Washington Report was great anticipation in 1993 after the Guatemala Renews Ties ...... 2 Embargo Legislation ...... 5 dollar was legalized and self-employment History of Diplomatic Relations ...... 2 Mining given approval that Cuba would continue to encourage economic freedom. There Trade & Commerce Joutel Prospects...... 8, 9 has been deep dismay at the paralysis Ferradaz on Investments...... 3 Public Health that struck economic reform just as it was delivering results. Now the Cuban Biotech Sales Report...... 3 AIDS Update...... 9 interest train is rising again. We can only Export, Import Charts ...... 6 Demographics wait for the outcome. CIA Trade Report...... 6 Population Growth ...... 10 Huge Trade Deficit...... 7 Abortion in Cuba ...... 10 U.S. Ports and Cuba...... 11 The Economy Helms-Burton CEPAL Report ...... 12 Clinton Postpones Title III ...... 4 Calendar — Mark Seibel Helms Endorses Bill...... 4 Upcoming Events...... 12 INTERNATIONAL Guatemala And Cuba Cold War Prompted Decades of Severed Relations Renew Diplomatic Ties Most countries in Latin America broke relations with Cuba at the behest of the United States between 1961 and 1964, one of the most tense periods of the Cold War, prompting an era of estrangement and regional isolation that lasted roughly a third of a century. Nearly 40 years after it broke diplomatic The key event during these early years was the application of sanctions against Havana relations with Cuba in 1961, Guatemala has by the Organization of American States. In 1962, Cuba was excluded from the OAS, and, become the latest country in Latin America in 1964, the Council of the OAS determined that, as a consequence, OAS members were to announce that it intends to re-open an required to follow suit individually. embassy in Havana and restore normal Only Mexico, Colombia and Chile resisted the pressure from Washington to isolate diplomatic links with the government of Cuba diplomatically at that time. Of these three, Mexico alone managed to maintain Fidel Castro. friendly relations with the Castro government throughout the years without interruption. The announcement came only days after (Canada never broke relations either, despite U.S. pressure.) the visit to Cuba of Pope John Paul II and his Chile broke relations with Cuba in September of 1973, following the coup d’etat by Gen. call for Cuba and other countries to under- Augusto Pinochet against the government of Socialist Salvador Allende, a Castro ally. Not take actions to reduce the isolation of the until 1995, after Pinochet stepped down and democracy returned to Chile, did relations Caribbean nation. return to normal. Since isolating Cuba—diplomatically, eco- Colombia, for its part, suspended relations in 1981 due to Castro’s alleged support of nomically and in every other way—is the the guerrilla movement in that country. Relations were restored in 1993, but the contin- essential principle of U.S. foreign policy ued presence of Marxist guerrillas in Colombia is an occasional source of contention toward that country, the pope’s declaration between Havana and Bogota. represented a direct challenge to Washington, and Guatemala was quick to respond. In an effort to forestall a certain rebuke COUNTRY RELATIONS BROKEN RELATIONS RESTORED from the State Department, Foreign Argentina 1962 1973 Minister Eduardo Stein of Guatemala Bolivia 1963 1983 declared, “The re-establishment of our rela- Brazil 1964 1986 tionship with Cuba in no way signifies a dis- Colombia 1981 1993 tancing or an act of enmity against the Costa Rica 1961 None United States.” Chile 1973 1995 Nevertheless, the move was seen as a set- Ecuador 1963 1979 back for officials in Washington, where the El Salvador 1961 None policy of isolation has been losing ground Guatemala 1961 1998 slowly since the end of the Cold War. If Honduras 1961 None Guatemala, once a fortress of anti-commu- Nicaragua 1961 1979 nist sentiment, is willing to normalize rela- Panama 1961 1974 tions with the Marxist government in Paraguay* 1961 1996 Havana, it seems safe to say that Latin Peru 1962 1970 American support for the the policy of isolat- Dom.Republic 1962 1997 ing Cuba has all but vanished. Uruguay 1964 1985 As the chart below in the accompanying Venezuela 1962 1974 story shows, only four countries in the region have not restored full diplomatic rela- tions with Cuba: Costa Rica, El Salvador, *CONSULAR RELATIONS ONLY Honduras and Paraguay. The latter re-estab- The diplomatic spat between Cuba and refuge for political dissidents. lished consular relations in 1996. Cuba has Spain remains unresolved and the Spanish As a result, Cuba immediately withdrew an interests office in Tegucigalpa, and ambassador’s post in Havana remains vacant its consent. Madrid, in turn, has shown its Honduras is expected to reciprocate; the twoWhenmore Will than a Spainyear after Namestrained rNewelations Envoydispleasur to Havana?e over the snub by failing to make countries are expected to establish a con- developed between the two countries. a new appointment. The job has been vacant sular relationship in March, according to the Even the arrival of the 100th anniversary since November of 1996. head of the Cuban office in Tegucigalpa. of the sinking of the U.S.S. Maine on In late January, Spanish Foreign Minister Costa Rica has an interests section in February 15, an event of historical signifi- Abel Matutes told reporters that he had spo- Spain’s embassy in Havana. Only El cance that Spain would like to observe by ken several times with his Cuban counter- Salvador, where the scars of the decade-long showing that it has fully reconciled with the part, Roberto Robaina, in an effort to make civil war of the 1980s between the govern- last Spanish colony in the New World, has sure that the new envoy “will have the ability ment and Cuban-backed guerrillas are still failed to end the quarrel. to work with all sectors of Cuban society.” evident, has made no move to restore com- Spain is probably Cuba’s most important Matutes said he was “in no hurry” to mercial or diplomatic relations at any level. commercial partner (see Pages 6 and 7), but name a replacement and blamed Cuba for Panama, meanwhile, is the only Central the two countries are still struggling to find the vacancy. His comments were sparked American country that currently maintains a a way to resume the friendly relations they by comments and editorials in the Spanish fulltime ambassador in Cuba. enjoyed until Havana signaled that the gov- news media questioning Madrid’s estrange- A large part of Guatemala’s motivation is ernment would not accept the designation of ment from Havana in light of the pope’s visit. economic. As the biggest economy in Jose Coderch to be Spain’s ambassador. Spanish diplomats have been quoted in Central America, it has greater reason than Coderch had already been named to the Madrid newspapers as saying that a new its neighbors to seek opportunities for trade post when he declared that the embassy ambassador to Havana would surely be and investment abroad. The Guatemalan air- would be open to Cubans of all political per- named during 1998, while Matutes said in line Aviateca opened direct flights between suasions, a remark the government took as a early February that a new ambassador Guatemala City and Havana last year. signal that the embassy might serve as a might be named “in the next few weeks.”

2 CUBANEWSFebruary 1998 TRADE & COMMERCE INTERNATIONAL In Their Own Words

Ferradaz on Investments “The Castro I spoke to last night was not the same Castro I met two years ago. He is In a news conference in Havana in mid- less aggressive, seems more mellow, more philosophical.” January, Foreign Investment Minister U.S. Rep.Joseph Moakley, Democrat of Massachusetts, Ibrahim Ferradaz characterized 1997 as a visiting Cuba during the Pope’s visit, as quoted by the Associated Press, Jan. 24. positive year for the Cuban economy and cited the following figures: “In our day, no nation can live in isolation. The Cuban people, therefore, cannot be • The existence of “approximately 300” denied the contacts with other peoples necessary for economic, social and cultural devel- authorized joint ventures, with “about 100” opment, especially when the imposed isolation strikes the population indiscriminately, more to be concluded. making it ever more difficult for the weakest to enjoy the bare essentials of decent liv- • The existence of joint ventures in 34 sec- ing—things such as food, health and education.” tors of the economy, mostly in petroleum, Pope John Paul ,II in a farewell address at Jose Marti International Airport in Havana mining, tourism and telecommunications. before his departure from Cuba, as quoted in The New York Times, Jan. 26. • The presence of capital from 40 countries in businesses on the island, mainly from “No one has stronger anti-Communist credentials than John Paul. If he can extend a Spain, Italy, Canada, the Netherlands and hand to Cubans, so can the United States.” France. Editorial in The New York Times, Jan. 26. • The establishment of three duty-free zones on the island and the presence of 190 ten- “Castroism has failed, but that happened long before the Pope’s visit...Castro was the ants or operators in these zones. last brick in the Berlin Wall, but now risks becoming a mere fragment of the Goliath that • The creation of five joint real estate enter- he once was, a rolling stone in the riverbed of history...” prises, with a sixth under negotiation and 30 Editorial in La Stampa of Turin (Italy), Jan. 26. more under consideration by the ministry. • The signing of agreements on promotion “I’m seeing a glimmer of an opening (in Cuba)...Argentina is Cuba’s main creditor (in and protection of investments with 30 coun- Latin America)...so maybe we can get something started.” tries. PresidentCarlos Menemof Argentina, disclosing that he may be invited to visit Cuba this “We Cubans have gained more experience year and suggesting he can encourage democratic reforms, on how to negotiate, we have more flexibili- as quoted in The Miami Herald, Feb. 7. ty, and we have better identified business opportunities,” Ferradaz told reporters. “What will occur eventually is the end of Cuba’s communism, as it has ended else- where. The significance of the Pope's visit, therefore, is that it encourages an evolution toward freedom rather than a counterreveolution.” Editorial in The Boston Globe, Jan. 18. MEXICO “They are now committed to talking to us on issues they won’t talk about very openly Mexican Exports Grow with anyone else.” Mexico exported $410 million worth of Canadian AmbassadorKeith Christie, commenting on the results of Canada’s policy goods to Cuba during 1997, according to of trying to maintain friendly relations with Cuba, Arnaldo Molina, Cuban consul in Merida, as quoted in The Globe & Mail of Toronto, Jan. 20. capital of the state of Yucatan, the Mexican region closest to Cuba. “A change in (U.S.) policy, more than the Pope’s visit, would provoke the end of Mr. This would represent an increase of 28.9 Castro. There is strength in numbers, and a million American tourists and businessmen percent over the $318 million reported could do what the Pope cannot: make Cuba ungovernable by dictatorship. If only export figure for 1996, according to statisticsWashington could see that. Mr. Castro...will surely pray that he and the United States compiled by the U.S. Central Intelligence remain the best of enemies, forever.” Agency. (See Page 6.) According to CIA figures, Mexico has a Editorial in The Globe & Mail, Jan. 20. significant trade surplus with Cuba, amount- ing to $295 million in 1996. The reported export increase for 1997 would almost surelyBIOTECHNOLOGY increase the Mexican surplus. Molina said the principal Mexican exportsVaccine Sales Report ernment is scheduled to begin operations in to Cuba were foodstuffs, including cooking Everbiotec, Cuba’s biotechnological the province of Pinar del Rio before the end oil, grain, flour, pork, soft drinks, condi- enterprise, reported sales of $30 million of a of the year, according to a report on Radio ments and beer, as well as lumber and auto-Cuban-developed Hepatitis B vaccine around Havana. mobile batteries. the world in 1997. Gladys Perdomo, sales The Plata Loma de Hierro mining project According to a breakdown provided by manager for those regions Africa and the will be located near other mining complexes the CIA, the principal Mexican exports to Middle East, told the news media in Havana on the western side of the island, according Cuba in 1996 were semifinished goods ($84that the vaccine was the company’s most to the report. It said the project comprises million), chemicals ($62 million,) fuels ($46popular product in terms of overseas sales. several mineral bodies and claimed the pro- million, including $40 million in crude petroShe- said that by the year 2000, the entire ject has the capacity to recover initial invest- leum), machinery ($38 million), raw materialCuban population under the age of 15 will ment in six months. ($31 million, including $16 million in fibers),have been protected by the vaccine. “Loma de Hierro has a mineral potential and $24 million in foodstuffs. Consumer of 2.5 million tons of silver, which will be goods accounted for an additional $23 mil- extracted during a six-year period by pro- lion. MINING cessing complex substances with the appro- Molina said new arrangements called for priate solvents to obtain the soluble part,” increased exports of chicken in 1998. Silver Mine To Open according to government authorities. The source of the foreign capital was not A new silver mining project using foreign identified. capital in a joint venture with the Cuban gov-

CUBANEWS February 1998 3 HELMS-BURTON Clinton Postpones Title III Helms Endorses CANF Bill, Castro Calls It “Cynical” Within days after Pope John Paul II criticized the U.S. economic embargo of Cuba dur- Saying that he was acting in “a way that ing his pastoral visit to the island, Cuban-American leaders developed a plan to expand best advances U.S. national interests,” humanitarian aid by having international organizations distribute the assistance. President Clinton suspended, for the fourth The proposal quickly won the endorsement of Sen. Jesse Helms, the influential North time, implementation of a Helms-Burton Carolina Republican who heads the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and co-authored sanction that allows U.S. citizens to sue for- the Helms-Burton legislation, which tightened the embargo. eign companies over property in Cuba. In Cuba, however, President Fidel Castro denounced the measure as a “dirty maneu- Clinton has postponed the lawsuit provi- ver” designed to undercut a much broader proposal for aid to Cuba that enjoys bipartisan sion for six months at a time since the sum- support in Congress. (See accompanying story, Page 5.) mer of 1996, a few months after Helms- The proposal developed by the Cuban American National Foundation, the principal anti- Burton became law. The president said he Castro lobbying organization in the United States, would allow increased humanitarian was putting off the provision again, for aid—food and medicine—as long as it goes directly to needy Cubans and is distributed by another six months, because European gov- the Red Cross, Caritas, or other charitable organizations. ernments and businesses have stepped up U.S. Reps. Lincoln Diaz-Balart and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Republican legislators from efforts to promote human rights in Cuba. Miami and allies of the Foundation in most instances, broke ranks with the group, saying Clinton also cited the work of non-govern-the effort needlessly opens up a new debate over the embargo. mental organizations, including Amnesty But Sen. Helms called it “a worthy proposal based on sound principles.” International and the Netherlands-based Pax “It will keep firmly in place a U.S. policy that is committed to economic and political Christi, that seek political change in Cuba asfreedom for all Cubans—the economic embargo on the Castro regime,” Sen. Helms said evidence of the success of a U.S. campaign in a written statement. “If Castro refuses to allow delivery of donated food and medicine, to seek support for its hardline policy. then it will be clear to all Cubans exactly who is responsible for their suffering.” “The U.S.-led multinational approach to In Havana, Castro said the conditions were unacceptable and described the action as a promote democracy in Cuba must be pre- “desperate move” designed to halt other efforts to end or restrict the embargo. served. We will continue working with our “How could we accept aid from people who are stabbing us with knives?” he asked. friends and allies to develop comprehensive,“You couldn’t think of anything more repugnantly cynical. Cuba does not seek humanitari- effective measures to promote democracy inan aid from the U.S. Cuba demands that the economic war against our people should Cuba,” Clinton said. cease!” While Clinton claimed that a “multination- He made his comments toward the end of a 4-hour live interview on Cuban television al effort” on Cuba has moved forward, mak-on the night of Feb. 2. He called the CANF proposal a “crude response ( ing it unnecessary to use the Helms-Burton sanction, implementation of Title III would dramatically escalate tensions between the respuesta United States and its allies. grosera ) to the words of the Pope.” The European Union, which has sought to As for the legislation sponsored in the House by Rep. Esteban Torres of California, resolve its differences with the United Stateswhich has the backing of a wide segment of the U.S. business community, Castro offered over Helms-Burton for nearly a year, has cautious support. “Although it doesn’t solve the problem, it is heading in the right direc- vowed to press its case over the bill’s “extra-tion. It is a noble, well-intentioned effort worthy of recognition and respect.” territorial” nature at the World Trade Organization if the Clinton administration implements the lawsuit provision or punish- es a European company under any other U.S. Businesses Invited To Cancun Conference Helms-Burton sanction. Some legal experts believe the opening of Despite U.S. prohibitions on trade with Cuba, American businesses have been invited to U.S. courts to what could be hundreds of a conference in Cancun, Mexico to explore business opportunities on the island. The con- new lawsuits would create a serious crisis inference will be held March 4 to 6. The seminar, organized by Washington lobbyist Kirby the American court system. Jones, will “allow U.S. business executives to come together with the Cuban decision-mak- Robert Muse, a Washington-based inter- ers involved in trade, investment and finance,” according to the summit agenda. national attorney who lobbied against Cuban Foreign Investment Minister Ibrahim Ferradaz plans to address the conference Helms-Burton, lauded Clinton’s decision. “Iin Cancun. But, since the participants will be flown in for a day of meetings in Havana, think the administration shares my longheldparticipants will have the opportunity to meet other top Cuban officials, including Carlos view that implementation will create havoc Lage Dávila, vice president of Cuba’s Council of Ministers, Tourism Minister Osmany in the U.S. court system,” Muse said. “It’s Cienfuegos and Ricardo Alarcón, president of Cuban’s National Assembly. as much a foreign relations problem as a Ferradaz told a radio program that “the U.S. businessmen have been given a permit to domestic problem.” visit Havana, as long as they come in the early morning and leave in the evening...They Backers of the Cuba law predictably want to know about Cuba and we are very pleased to cooperate with them...” decried Clinton’s postponement and cast Participants will also have the opportunity to arrange private meetings in Havana with doubt on his rationale. their “business counterparts” in Cuba. To avoid breaking U.S. embargo law, travel Rep. Robert Menendez, the New Jersey expenses to Cuba will be paid for by the Cuban government, summit organizers said. Democrat who helped Clinton to negotiate Former Democratic Congressman Sam Gibbons of Florida, who chaired the tax-writing waiver authority on Title III, countered that Ways and Means Committee before his retirement in 1994, is scheduled to speak at the conference. Other speakers include William Lane, president of Caterpillar, Inc. and head there has been “little concrete action” by at the time of Castro’s expropriations would Florida in the Senate, called Clinton’s U.S. allies to prohibit investment in expropriof- a coalition of businesses that oppose the growing use of economic sanctions by the U.S. goverhavenment, also andhad Wtheayne unpr Smith,ecedented the for rightmer tochief file of theactions U.S. “intolerable.”Interests Section in Havana. ated U.S. property in Cuba. suits had Clinton not once again postponed The legislator has introduced a bill that Title III would have initially allowed 5,911 the sanction. would strip Clinton of his authority to contin- certified U.S. claimants to file lawsuits. But Rep. Bill McCollum, Republican of ue to put off the lawsuit provision, but the beginning in March of this year, countless Florida, who has ambitions to represent legislation appears to have little support. Cuban-Americans who were not U.S. citizens

4 CUBANEWSFebruary 1998 WASHINGTON REPORT Americans for U.S. Chamber, Others Support Drive To Ease Embargo Humanitarian Trade with By Ana Radelat A diverse coalition headed by the U.S. business community kicked off a campaign to Cuba Advisory Council ease U.S. sanctions on the sale of food and medicine to Cuba just as Pope John Paul II prepared to make a historic trip to the island. Dwayne Andreas, chairman, Archer Daniels The coalition of business executives, current and former political figures, religious lead- Midland Co. ers and moderate Cuban American groups, which calls itself “Americans for Humanitarian Trade with Cuba,” argued that U.S. sanctions are hurting ordinary Cubans without weak- Mario Baeza, chairman and CEO, ening Fidel Castro’s government. TWC/Latin American Partners, L.L.C. “Castro is still standing,” said former Rep. Sam Gibbons, a retired Congressman from Florida. “The Cuban people are on their knees.” Lloyd M. Bentsen, former U.S. Senator and Another prominent member of the coalition is retired Marine Gen. John Sheehan, who Treasury Secretary. commanded U.S. forces in the Atlantic until he left the service in September of 1997. He said the United States should not restrict food and medical exports to a “country that does Reginald K. Brack, chairman emiritus, Time not pose a military threat.” Inc. William Workman, a vice president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which organized the lobbying campaign, said economic sanctions rarely bring about political change. He Joan Brown Campbell, general secretary, went further by calling for a complete end to the U.S. embargo. National Council of Churches. “An open economy is the first step to democracy. The best thing we can do is send 1,000 American business people to cut deals and make it happen,” Workman said. Frank C. Carlucci, chairman, The Carlyle The coalition backs bills in the House and Senate sponsored by Rep. Esteban Torres, Group, and former National Security Democrat of California, and Sens. Christopher Dodd, Democrat of Connecticut, and John Adviser to President Reagan. Warner, Republican of Virginia. The legislation would allow the nearly unrestricted sale of food and medicine to Cuba. A.W. Clausen, chairman and CEO (retired), In the year before the implementation of the Cuban Democracy Act, U.S. business sub- BankAmerica Corp., former World Bank sidiaries overseas enjoyed about $500 million in trade with Cuba. The 1992 law applied president. the rules of the embargo to overseas subsidiaries, however. Since then, American compa- nies hoping to sell medicines and medical supplies and equipment to Cuba must seek Thom White Wolf Fasset, general secretary, licenses from the Commerce and Treasury Departments. Members of the coalition said Methodist General Board of Church and the licensing process is so cumbersome that few shipments are approved. The sale of Society. food to the Cuban government is prohibited under any circumstance. Cuba has suffered from shortages of food and medicine since the collapse of the Soviet Richard Feinberg, director, APEC Study bloc left the island without its main trading partners. Coalition members said Cuba is Center, U.C. San Diego, former Latin forced to pay premium prices to buy food and medicine in Europe and elsewhere. American adviser on the National Security Workman said Cuba pays nearly twice as much for European wheat as it would for U.S. Council. wheat. (As the chart on Page 6 shows, France is the major beneficiary of this practice.) Moreover, any ship or plane that carries goods into Cuba is banned, under the Cuban Democracy Act, from doing business in the United States for six months. This raises the Sam Gibbons , chairman, Gibbons and Co., cost of shipping to Cuba, as well as limits the number of carriers, coalition members said. former Democratic chairman of the U.S. While President Clinton has not weighed in on the legislation, the State Department House Ways and Means Committee. defends current policy. It said mismanagement by Castro’s government, rather than U.S. sanctions, are to blame for shortages of key goods in Cuba. Carla Anderson Hills, chairman and CEO, While the legislation to ease the embargo has growing bipartisan support on Capitol Hills & Co., former U.S. Trade Hill, Cuban American lawmakers who have dominated the debate on Cuba predicted that Representative. Republican leaders in Congress—who control key foreign affairs committees—would halt the progress of the bills. “Fortunately, the U.S. Chamber will fail in this attempt, which, if Rev. Clifton Kirkpatrick, state clerk, successful, would seriously damage U.S. business in its future dealing within democratic Presbyterian Church, U.S.A. Cuba,” said Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, a Miami Republican and leading member of the Cuban American community. Paul McCleary, president, For Children, Inc. George Sturgis Pillsbury, chairman, Sargent Management Co.

Elliot Richardson, former Attorney-General, former Secretary of Defense. Ana Radelat is based in Washington, D.C. and covers Cuban affairs. Gen. John J. Sheehan(retired), former com- mander, U.S. Atlantic forces. State Response: U.S. Gives More Than Government Sargent Shriver, chairman, Special Olympics International. The United States has approved more than $1 billion worth of donations to Cuba since 1992 despite the government-imposed embargo, according to the U.S. State Department. Benjamin Spock, M.D. Through its licensing arrangements, “the United States has, in effect, provided more med- ical assistance to the people of Cuba than their own government has,” said deputy Paul A. Volcker, chairman, BT Wolfensohn, spokesman James Foley. former chairman of the Federal Reserve Foley rejected the calls of Americans for Humanitarian Trade with Cuba, which seeks Board. to limit the embargo of Cuba, by saying: “The United States has licensed donations of over $227 million in medicines and medical supplies since 1992. Moreover, over $1 billion John Whitehead, chairman, AEA Investors, worth of donations of all types of humanitarian assistance, including food and a variety of Inc., former Deputy Secretary of State. other goods, have also been licensed in this time period.” The Cuban government called the figures “absolutely false.” A foreign ministry official Sylvia Wilhelm, executive director, Cuban said U.S. aid from religious and charitable institutions since 1992 amounted to $13 million. Committee for Democracy.

CUBANEWS February 1998 5 TRADE & COMMERCE Cuba, 1996: Top 10 Export Destinations (In Millions of Dollars)* CIA: Cuba’s Trade Rose 17.8 Percent in 1996 Russia $523 ($503 sugar) Canada $294 ($232 nickel, $43 sugar) In one of the strongest indications of an improved Cuban economy offered by Netherlands $230 ($191 nickel for re-export, $25 fruit) sources outside the government, the China $138 ($136 sugar) U.S.Central Intelligence Agency reports that Spain $131 ($52 fish, $48 tobacco) the total volume of exports and imports increased by 17.8 percent between 1995 and Japan $67 ($35 sugar, molasses, honey, $23 fish) 1996. France $48 ($22 fish, $11 tobacco) The CIA’s annual compilation of Cuban Italy $38 ($13 fish, $10 nickel ores) economic data, entitled “Cuba: Handbook of Trade Statistics, 1997” (APLA 97-10006, Nov. Mexico $23 ($12 sugar, molasses, honey, $3 medicinal products) 1997) contains a wealth of information on Germany $22 ($8 fruit, $3 tobacco) the composition of Cuban trade with its overseas partners from 1991-1996. It comes just one month after the Cuban *DATA IN PARENTHESES REFERS TO TOP EXPORT(S) BY COST. government offered its own annual econom- SOURCE: CIA PAMPHLET APLA 97-10006, CUBA: HANDBOOK OF TRADE STATISTICS, 1997 (NOV. 1997). ic report (see last month’s CUBANEWS), DATA PROVIDED BY CUBA’S TRADE PARTNERS. which covers a wider array of data—produc- tion, GNP and other macroeconomic fig- ures—but which customarily reveals little or Cuba, 1996: Top 10 Importing Countries (In Millions of Dollars)* nothing about Cuba’s trade patterns. The CIA, on the other hand, offers a 70- page look at both Cuban imports and Russia** $465 ($335 fuel, $66 million machinery) exports, broken down by country of origin Spain $465 ($162 semifinished goods, $145 machinery) (imports) and destination (exports), as well Mexico $318 ($84 semifinished goods, $62 chemicals) as the commodities, goods and products that traded between Cuba and its economic part- Canada $197 ($67 foodstuffs, $50 machinery) ners. France*** $197 ($110 wheat, $19 machinery) The government’s own economic report is Argentina $125 (no breakdown provided; 1995 figure mostly feed and cormorn)e up-to-date, since it covers figures through the end of 1997, whereas the CIA Italy $114 ($47 machinery, $23 consumer goods) report—which is based primarily on data China $101 ($29 vegetables, $22 chemicals) provided by Cuba’s trade partners, as well as Germany $70 ($34 machinery, $16 chemicals) published Cuban export data—runs one year behind. Thus, although the CIA report Netherlands $54 ($16 foodstuffs, mostly meat and fish, $10 transport) does not shed light on the state of the econ- omy today or on the current trade deficit, the trends are nevertheless apparent. *DATA IN PARENTHESES REFERS TO TOP TWO IMPORT PRODUCTS BY COST. The most important—and most favorable, **MAY INCLUDE OIL SHIPPED UNDER TRIANGULAR TRADE AGREEMENTS from Cuba’s standpoint—of these is the ***TOTAL FOODSTUFF IMPORT FROM FRANCE IS $155 MILLION, MAKING FRANCE NO. 1 ORIGIN OF FOOD IMPORTS. TOTAL INCLUDES $19 MILLION, OTHER CEREAL; $14 MILLION, DAIRY; $7 MILLION, MEAT AND LIVEgrowing strength of the trade picture. As ANIMALS. we reported the last time the CIA issued the SOURCE: CIA PAMPHLET APLA 97-10006, CUBA: HANDBOOK OF TRADE STATISTICS, 1997 report (CUBANEWS, January 1997), exter- (NOV. 1997). DATA PROVIDED BY CUBA’S TRADE PARTNERS. nal trade hit bottom in 1993 and has been growing ever since. (See “Composition of Trade” table.) Top Trade Partners From 1993 to 1994, overall trade grew 6.1 percent, according to the CIA data. A big COUNTRY TOTAL TRADE VOLUME MAIN EXPORT TO CUBA MAIN IMPORT leap occurred the following year, 1995, when the total amount of exports and imports Russia $988 million Fuel Sugar grew a spectacular 25.8 percent to $4.43 bil- Spain $596 million Semifinished goods Fish lion. In 1996, it grew to $5.22 billion, a leap Canada $491 million Foodstuffs Nickel of 17.8 percent. The best part of this, if the CIA figures Mexico $341 million Semifinished goods Sugar are correct, is that from 1995 to 1996, Netherlands $284 million Foodstuffs Nickel (re-exporexport) ts grew by 24 percent, while imports France $245 million Wheat Fish grew by much less—a relatively modest 14.26 percent. China $239 million Vegetables Sugar In the perspective of a longer time frame, Italy $152 million Machinery Fish however, the figures are not quite as favor- Argentina $133 million Feed & corn(?) Medicinal productsable. For a discussion of the negative side, see the following page. Germany $92 million Machinery Fruit Japan $91 million Machinery Sugar, mol., honey

SOURCE: CIA PAMPHLET APLA 97-10006, CUBA: HANDBOOK OF TRADE STATISTICS, 1997 (NOV. 1997). DATA PROVIDED BY CUBA’S TRADE PARTNERS.

6 CUBANEWSFebruary 1998 Trade Deficit/In Million Dollars Overall Trade Still Lags 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 Far Behind Best Years 0 -125 -150 In the perspective of a longer time frame, -200 the Cuban trade figures are not quite as favorable as they might seem at first glance. In the first place, overall trade stood at -400 $11.655 billion in 1990, the last “good” trade year. (The figure is taken from last year’s CIA report as published in CUBANEWS, -590 January 1997.) Thus, the level of trade Cuba-600 -665 struggled to reach in 1996 was not quite half as strong as in 1990, when Cuba imported $1.95 billion worth of fuel (nearly twice as -800 much as 1996). Statistically, the trade figures offer a good inside look at the spectacular economic -1000 decline of the “special period.” One figure alone indicates the depth of the problem: In The trade deficit chart shown above requires some -1180 -1190 1990, Cuba imported $1.79 billion worth of explanation. machinery, according to the CIA—an Last month, CUBANEWS published charts based on two different sets of data—the amount that surpasses the total value of figures in the government’s economic report for 1997, and figures the government had machinery imports for the five-year period provided through the state-run media and elsewhere previously. Both showed signifi- from 1992 to 1996. cant, growing trade deficits. Furthermore, there is no single reason for The CIA, as it turns out, has its own figures, and they do not coincide with either set of the chronic trade deficit, and thus no easy statistics offered by the government. cure. The deficit exists across the board, Surprisingly, the CIA is more conservative. Where the government’s economic report with practically all of Cuba’s major trade indicated a 1996 trade deficit of $1.6 billion, the CIA estimate is $1.19 billion. partners: Spain, -$334 million; Mexico, -$295 The CIA also revised its own figures for 1995 and the preceding years, so that the million; France, -$149 million; Argentina, reported deficit for 1995 of $1.225 billion is now shown to be $1.180 billion, improving the -$117 million; Italy, -$76 million, and so on. balance by $45 million. The principal changes in the reporting involved an additional $25 Surprisingly, Cuba maintains a trade sur- million in increased reported exports ($45 million less sugar than earlier reported, $40 plus with two of the strongest economies in million less in medical products than earlier reported, plus other reductions—but a the world—Canada and Japan. In the case ofremarkable $125 million Canada, the $97 million surplus—which morein reported nickel exports); and $20 million less in report- includes $197 million in imports—can be ed imports, mainly food. explained by the fact that Cuba’s $294 mil- lion in exports includes $232 million in nick- el ores, largely as a result of its joint venture with Sherritt International. In the case of Japan—Cuba has a positive Cuba: Composition of Trade, 1991-1996 balance of $43 million—the surplus may be due to Japan’s reluctance to finance a trade 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 deficit as long as Cuba still refuses to pay its Total Exports 3,565 2,085 1,325 1,465 1,625 2,015 old loans. Sugar, molasses, honey 2,670 1,300 820 785 855 1,095 Cuba also has a $37 million balance with China, based on exports of $138 million Nickel 260 235 170 190 345 450 ($136 million, sugar), and imports of all Fish 115 120 90 110 115 125 types worth $101 million. Tobacco 100 95 75 80 90 90 Then there is Russia. Cuba has a $58 mil- Medical products 50 50 20 110 40 85 lion trade surplus, thanks to exports of $523 Fruit 100 50 50 80 45 50 million and imports of $465 million (sugar for oil, mostly), but these figures may not Other 270 235 100 110 135 120 tell the whole story. As the CIA notes, the oil import figure of $335 million may include oil shipped under triangular trade agree- Total Imports 3,690 2,235 1,990 2,055 2,805 3,205 ments with third countries. Fuels 1,240 835 750 750 835 1,060 The overall trade figure with Russia is Food 720 450 490 430 560 610 $988 million, making it Cuba’s leading trade Machinery 615 350 235 240 405 510 partner, according to the CIA. But, inexplic- ably, the state-controlled news media report- Semifinished goods 425 195 180 220 385 410 ed in December that Cuba’s leading trade Chemical products 270 170 150 180 280 230 partners were Spain, Russia and Canada, in Consumer goods 90 50 50 80 130 160 that order (instead of Russia ahead of Transport equipment 170 125 80 110 100 120 Spain). Raw material 140 40 35 25 85 90 Other 20 20 20 20 25 15

Trade Deficit 125 150 665 590 1,180 1,190

SOURCE: CIA PAMPHLET APLA 97-10006, CUBA: HANDBOOK OF TRADE STATISTICS, 1997 (NOV. 1997). DATA PRO- VIDED BY CUBA’S TRADE PARTNERS.

CUBANEWS February 1998 7 MINING Mining Expectations Joutel Concessions in Cuba Outpace Prospect Results SANTA CLARA One of the most prospective zones on the island, this area in the central region hosts By Armando H. Portela several hundred mineral occurrences. The leased area originally covered some 1,500 sq. kilometers (362,560 acres), subsequently reduced to 180.5 sq. kilometers (44,600 acres) More than three decades after the last for- in 1996. Prospecting has been carried out in the zones of Arimao (60M tons 0.31% Cu); eign mining company was compelled to Antonio (2.7M tons, 1.64% Cu, 3.89% Zn); Carlota (5M tons, 1% Cu and Zn); Los Pasos leave the island following the turmoil of the (several locations). Currently, the works are restricted to two favorable massive sulfide 1959 Revolution, a few foreign investors horizons it the Independencia location in the Los Pasos area. have been lured back to Cuba to prospect for earthly profits. They are attracted by the first promising CAMAGUEY signs of a re-opening of the country’s econo- my to outsiders, by the wellknown geologi- This area in the east-central part of Cuba has good potential to hold epithermal gold, as cal potential of Cuba and by the presence of well as porphiry copper-gold deposits with nearly 100 surface occurrences announced at a well-educated technical workforce that pos-the time Joutel obtained a 1,562 sq. kilometer (386,000 acres) concession, since reduced sesses a detailed knowledge of the territory. by 40 percent. Prospecting has been carried out very close to Camaguey (city) on the In the case of copper, the arrival of miningVidot-Cascorro and Vidot East locations. Also, smaller areas were earlier prospected for companies coincided with a remarkable gold at Damañuecos-Caisimu and for copper at Tamarindo, east of the city of Las Tunas. increase in the market value of the mineral The recently closed Joutel-KWG joint venture ( see story) was located in Camaguey following 1994. province. Currently, the work is limited to the epithermal gold and silver deposits of El Along with Cuba’s one-time gold Jaguey (grab samples reported with 4.83 and 1.28 g/t gold) and La Purisima, where sev- reserves—which vanished long ago—copper eral borings have intersected a broad alteration zone with gold and copper anomalous has been exploited on the island longer than concentrations. any other base mineral (see CUBANEWS, January 1997). Nevertheless, its reserves are modest, particularly when compared to SIERRA MAESTRA the vast nickel deposits. Aside from a cou- ple of wellknown mines that today are The area lies in the Paleogenic volcanic belt that stretches across the Caribbean Sea exhausted, most potential copper sites were floor, emerging in southeastern Cuba. The exploration contracts originally covered 1,600 not even considered worth the effort of sq. kilometers (395,370 acres), where 182 occurrences were reported. By 1996, the area exploration. was reduced to 16 percent of the original size. Prospecting was performed at El Cobre The new discoveries of copper, gold, sil- zone (7.4M tons averaging 1.24 g/t Au and 5.87 g/t Ag); Vega Grande zone (0.8M tons, ver, lead, bauxite, zinc—even oil—were 1.15% Cu) and the Infierno area (14M tons, 2.27 Zn). This area has been the focus of found during the nearly three decades of sci-most of the recent activity. In La entific prospecting by dozens, if not hun- Havana dreds, of geologists from the Soviet bloc. Zona Barita area, Although they were ably assisted by their the work advanced Indenpendencia Cuban counterparts, the discoveries to a feasibility Santa Clara received scarce attention in the Soviet-orient-study for the La Purísima ed Cuban economy, whose principal geologi-exploitation of El Jaguey cal focus was the vast nickel reservoir in gold, but the low Camaguey northeastern Cuba. market prices placed a hold on Tamarindo La Zona Barita the final report. Santiago de Cuba Joutel Holdings Sierra Maestra This areas was the site of world-class, profitable mining projects, but operations in the copper mines were often sustained as matter of national pride and in order to carry Copper Cash Prices/In Dollars Per Ton out social (employment) policies, not 3250 because they earned money. In fact, the out- July 13, 1995 In late December, 1997, the price put of copper from 1959 to the present has $3,235 of copper fell to its lowest level in been reduced sixfold. four years. The downward trend During the latest phase, the pioneering 3000 reduced the price per ton an average of $38 per week in the foreign company insofar as negotiating an second half of 1997. agreement with Cuba for prospecting and 2750 developing base and precious metals on the island is the Canadian enterprise, Joutel Resources, Ltd. The company made its first cautious 2500 approach to Cuba in 1992—Joutel’s first involvement in foreign exploration—and spent two years assessing the technical 2250 potential of the island, negotiating future contracts and planning operations in select- Oct 27, 1993 $1,596 ed areas. These early negotiations resulted 2000 in the granting of the exploration rights in Dec 29, 1997 1750 $1,609

1500 1994 1995 1996 1997 SOURCE: THE LME STATISTICS

8 CUBANEWSFebruary 1998 PUBLIC HEALTH three main locations, covering 4,782 sq. kiloHIV/AIDS- 1997 Update 1996. In 1995, there were only 124 new meters (1,846 sq. miles), or 4.3 percent of cases. This means that the number of cases the entire national territory. has almost tripled in two years. Cuba became the prime focus of the com- According to the figures disclosed by Cuban health authorities, the prevalence of One third of the 1,815 HIV-infected per- pany’s exploration activities. sons detected since 1986 had developed The government created Geominera, S.A.HIV and AIDS in the population is still far from becoming a major social health prob- AIDS, and the death rate among those who under the Ministry of Basic Industry to con- become sick is 73 percent. “In Cuba an aver- duct the exploration with Joutel through a lem, but if the rate of growth recorded in recent years does not abate, this relatively age of 10 to 12 years lapses before those 50/50 joint venture agreement. The work diagnosed as HIV-positive actually develop consisted of detailed ground and airborne calm situation will surely change. From the beginning of 1996, the custom- AIDS, and life expectancy at that point is typ- geophysical surveys (electromagnetic), fol- ically between 15 and 18 months.”, Granma lowed by trenching and drilling of the mostary attitude of self-satisfaction among Cuban officials on health issues began to be International reported last April. promising zones and occurrences. One half of all cases have been found in But despite early claims that the leased replaced with growing apprehension regard- ing the HIV infection rate. Attorney General Havana, where 20 percent of the island’s areas could host world class deposits, the population resides. Last September, Havana results have been disappointing. Findings Juan Escalona admitted then that “we are running the risk of losing the extraordinary doubled the number of new cases reported abounded, which is to be expected from the in all of 1996. The most densely populated subsoil composition, but most of them progress accomplished by the country in preventing the spread of AIDS [and HIV] municipalities of the city— Habana Vieja, revealed modest reserves and concentra- Cerro, 10 de Octubre and Centro-Habana— tions, an especially disappointing result in and venereal diseases”. Authorities completely disregard the use have the highest prevalence ratios. Other view of the collapse of copper and gold territories with high incidence are Villa world prices that followed the earlier surge.of drugs or blood transfusions as a way of contagion. Instead, they say, the fertile envi- Clara, Pinar del Rio and Matanzas. As a consequence, the company’s hold- There are 60 laboratories countrywide ings were reduced by 70 percent at the endronment for the fast spread of the virus is created by the general ignorance of the pop- that perform the HIV tests, as well as the of 1996, following 30 months of active National AIDS Reference Center and prospecting, in order to focus on the most ulation insofar as the elevated risk of trans- mission posed by promiscuous sexual Diagnostic Laboratory. Thus far, more than promising areas. 20 million tests have been made; this is Since the summer of 1997, the persistencebehavior and the related increase in contacts with foreigners. about two million tests annually in a popula- of low commodity prices, unsolved financial tion of 6.3 million between the ages of 14 difficulties and the slowdown in exploration In fact, according to a poll of the Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology quoted by the and 49. (The greatest number of cases is in activity has become a matter of concern for the 19-34 year old age group). This screen- some investors. By last September, after anofficial news media, 88 percent of Cubans have had sexual experience by the age of 18, ing is free and almost compulsory, as is extensive review of the possibilities, Joutel’s internment for anyone found to be infected. land holdings were reduced to 429.6 sq. kilocompar- ed to only 50 percent in Europe. In Havana, nearly one of every two high The government plans to require greater meters (165.9 sq. miles), or roughly 10 per- dissemination of information and education cent of the earlier concession. school students (age 12 to 19) has had sexu- al intercourse, but only 44 percent of those about HIV and AIDS, as well as to insist on The company’s share price in 1997 free condom distribution, as the most effec- dropped from a high of $0.45 to $0.09, mak-have used condoms as a form of protection. Surprisingly, prostitution appeared to be tive ways to cut the rate of infection. Other ing a modest upswing to $0.13 by the end of plans include working on prevention with January, 1998. Working capital as of less of a factor than generally expected, according to a research study sponsored by groups in the highest risk category, enforce- September 30, 1997 was $948,351, compared ment of the epidemiological surveillance, to $1,305,705 on the same date in 1995 and the Ministry of Health. Only 36 people of the 234 cases reported in 1996 were infected by and continuous training of specialists. $2,785,465 on that date in 1996. What is easily understandable is that if the An early January business report dis- contact with a foreigner, Dr. Jorge Peréz, a member of the National AIDS Commission, present critical economic situation persists, closed that KWG Resources, Inc., an impor- the country will be in no condition to fight tant Joutel associate in Cuban exploration pointed out. In 1997, 347 new HIV cases were found, an uncontrolled outbreak of the disease with activities since 1996, sold its 8 million voting any hope of success. shares to a group of private investors. representing a 23.6 percent increase over Furthermore, the exploration joint venture of both companies for prospecting in Cuba was terminated and the two KWG nominees to the Joutel board of directors resigned. For the immediate future, the company’s —Armando H. Portela fortunes in Cuba may well depend largely on the uncertain recovery of commodity prices on the world market, since large-scale dis- HIV Cases and Projection Through 2000 coveries are unlikely to develop. Operations4500 may shrink even further while hard times CubaNews estimates last. 4000 based on current growth rates of HIV cases. 3500 3000 2500 2000 The author holds a Ph.D. in Geography from the Institute of Geography of the Soviet 1500 Academy of Sciences. He was a senior researcher for Cuba’s Academy of Sciences 1000 from 1968 to 1992. He lives in Miami. 500 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 SOURCES: MINISTRY OF PUBLIC HEALTH; CUBAN MEDIA REPORTS

CUBANEWS February 1998 9 DEMOGRAPHICS Population Growth Rate/In Percent Economic Crisis and Population Growth 1.2 1.29 In spite of the effort of the Cuban government to minimize the importance of the deep and sustained effect of the economic crisis 1 1.13 on the growth of population, statistical evidence is overwhelming. 0.98 0.98 1.02 Cuba had an average rate of population growth of one percent dur- 0.88 ing the 1980s—well below the world average of 1.7 percent—but 0.8 after the onset of the “special period” in the 90s, it was cut by more 0.6 0.62 than half. This was the result of the combined effect of a drastic 0.56 reduction in the birth rate and the sudden upswing in emigration, as 0.46 0.45 well as a possible increase in the death rate that would reflect the0.4 0.39 deterioration in living conditions and the aging of the population. 0.34 (Currently, about 9.3 percent of the population is 65 years or older, as opposed to 7.9 percent in 1981. Life expectancy stands at 74.7 0.2 years.) This population growth appraisal is based on an initial 1997 popu0- lation estimate of 11.04 million. During the year, Cuba reported 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 199519971996 152,547 births and a record low infant mortality rate of 7.2 per thou- sand. On the negative side of the equation, it could be assumed Birth Rate/Per Thousand Population Cuba experienced an emigration rate of 0.2 percent and a death rate18 above 7 per thousand inhabitants. (Cuban health authorities have 18.1 recently pointed to an increase in all major causes of death, includ17- 17.4 17.6 17.5 ing those produced by infectious diseases and accidents.) The balance shows a population growth between 0.4 and 0.5 per16- 16.3 cent during 1997, an astonishingly low figure by any standard. Since 16.2 1981, the number of daughters per reproductive woman is about 0.7,15 jeopardizing in the long term the natural renewal capacity of the population. An improvement in the living standards or a perceptible14 14.5 reduction in the rate of abortion could make the population bounce 13.8 13.8 back and begin to grow at earlier rates. 13 13.5 13.4 If growth and aging rates remain unchanged, however, specialists 12.7 believe that the population may well start to diminish in absolute 12 numbers after the year 2015. 11

10 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 199519971996 SOURCES: MINISTRY OF PUBLIC HEALTH; CUBANEWS ESTIMATES

Abortion and Population Stagnation birth rate (see above) in this decade is almost certainly linked to abortion practices—surgical or non-surgical invasive procedures Condemning the practice of abortion is a fundamental theme of after the onset of pregnancy—of one sort or another. the pastoral missions of Pope John Paul II around the globe, but in Women younger that 20 conform the most common group likely Cuba—where nearly two of every five pregnancies is surgically halt- to depend on abortion, followed by women ages 20-24. Combined, ed—the subject is particularly relevant because the figures are so they represent more than two-thirds of all abortion patients. dramatic. Any policy discouraging the practice of abortion will promote the In general, Cuban women began resorting to surgical abortions as natural growth of the population—albeit in a weak fashion, since the most common method of birth control in the early 1970s. In the other factors also contribute to the slowdown—but this is a develop- not so distant past, this practice reached the astonishing ratio of one ment that the Cuban economy is not likely to support in its current abortion performed for every newborn delivered. The state’s deci- rundown condition. sion to make abortion no more complicated, in legal terms, than any other surgical procedure greatly contributed to its frequent use. With a population of 10.1 to 10.5 million inhabitants, abortions averaged 153,500 per year between 1986 and 1990, but—as in many other areas of population statistics—the “special period” saw a Number of Abortions per 100 Pregnancies decline in the number of abortions, presumably as a consequence of the acute shortages in the health sector. In 1996, Cuban authorities recorded 83,827 abortions, the lowest49.2 number since 1971. 48 It would be a mistake, however, to conclude on the basis of that46 46.0 statistic alone that significantly fewer pregnancies are ended before 45.3 45.0 44.1 natural delivery. Scholars consider that the reduction in the number44 No data available of surgical abortions is offset by the rampant increase in the use of42 41.6 41.5 for 1995 menstrual regulators as a method of discharge in the early phases40 of pregnancy. These medications, designed to control timing of the 38.3 menstrual period, often provoke menstruation, even on the part of38 37.4 36.4 pregnant women. 36 Estimates of the Ministry of Public Health suggest that the num- ber of pregnancies interrupted using this method could equal the34 number of surgical abortions. In fact, the abrupt reduction of the32 30 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1996 SOURCES: MINISTRY OF PUBLIC HEALTH; CUBAN MEDIA REPORTS

10 CUBANEWSFebruary 1998 TRADE & COMMERCE SOUTH CAROLINA U.S. Ports Vie for Trade Charleston In Post-Embargo Cuba GEORGIA ALABAMA Savannah By Douglass G. Norvell MISSISSIPPI Interest in providing transportation links Mobile Jacksonville TEXAS to post-embargo Cuba remains high among LOUISIANA Atlantic Gulf and Eastern seaboard ports, in spite of Beaumont slow progress toward lifting trade sanctions. Ocean New Orleans Not only has the Florida Ports Council Tampa decided to prepare a detailed study anticipatHouston- ing needs for Florida’s deep water ports in FLORIDA post-embargo Cuba, but the Port of Jacksonville was recently fined $20,000 by Port Everglades Miami the Treasury Department for embargo viola- Gulf of tions when its marketing efforts became Mexico overzealous and representatives traveled to Key West Cuba on a goodwill tour. (See CUBANEWS, September 1997). Havana Although Florida ports will play a lead role in shipping to post-embargo Cuba, other CUBA ports along the Eastern Seaboard and Gulf Coast are also positioned to ship products to Cuba, particularly if the embargo is modified to permit expanded trade in food and med- MEXICO Santiago de Cuba ical products. But the roles of individual ports are clouded by a complex set of vari- ble shipping point. Chicken and rice, both would be further complicated by Cuba’s pro- ables that include marketing efforts, spatial produced in the central Gulf states, will be curement policies. Like most purchasers, relationships, cultural ties, product perisha- shipped from Central Gulf ports, as well as Cuba may shift business from one port to bility, production sites and back hauls. Jacksonville, which already moves 200,000 the next, hoping individual ports will contin- Distances from select ports to Havana tons of frozen chicken each year through its ue to seek Cuba’s business, thus ensuring reveal some surprises; for example, port. As Cuban per capita income rises and healthy competition among suppliers. Charleston is much closer to Havana than consumers move up the “protein ladder” Moreover, all goods will not come into Houston, and only slightly farther from from chicken to pork, those ports which sit Havana, a factor which makes a significant Havana than Jacksonville, or New Orleans. near the huge North Carolina hog complex- geographical difference, since the distance Not only are South Florida’s ports closer to es—Charleston, for example—will be in a from West Cuba’s ports to East Coast ports Havana than Mexico’s Yucatan ports, but good position to ship pork to Cuba. is easily 800 miles. they also enjoy the shortest U.S. distance to Eventually, Cubans could import up to With Cuba’s command economy, ship- Havana, an important factor for products 200,000 tons each of frozen pork and chick- ments from one end of the island to the that must be moved fast, like perishables or en. other could be easily mandated. Similarly, people. Beyond the ports with natural advantages, Cuba’s small merchant marine might come At present, many of the fresh fruits and competitive forces come into play. into play with central planners deciding that vegetables—melons, pineapples, snow Competition in shipping manufactured they should be carriers, permitting smaller, peas—sold on the Eastern Seaboard come goods to Cuba will be fierce, with shallower draft ports like Beaumont, Texas, from Central American suppliers. They Jacksonville’s aggressive port leading the Wilmington, N.C. or Savannah, Ga. to get enter the U.S. at Port Everglades, just north way. Machine tools, farm equipment, into the act. of Miami, where wholesalers at Pompano pumps, motors, replacement parts, and the Beach arrange for trucks to ship up the East complete range of products made in the Coast. Cuban vegetable growers would have Chicago to Detroit corridor (the largest a strong advantage over Central American industrial complex in the world) will be put shippers. Fruits and vegetables take just on trucks and shipped to Eastern Seaboard over two days to reach South Florida from ports that get in line for business. Beyond the one-dimensional routes liesDouglass G. Norvell, Ph.D., is an economist Central America, but Cuban shippers could specializing in waterfront activities. make the trip in one day, adding a crucial the murky world of back hauls, where ship- day’s shelf life to products—or, better still, ping rates for products loaded into empty an extra day on the vine to sharpen taste. containers get extremely low. Miami has regular shipments of flowers imported bySea air Distances: Selected U.S. Ports to The tourist trade is even more time sensi- Havana tive. This offers a clear advantage for Miami, from Colombia that trucks carry into the (In nautical miles) which already has 3.2 million cruise ship hinterland. Backhaul possibilities for passengers a year and will likely become the Houston and New Orleans are especially Distance natural departure point for passengers wish- intriguing, considering that rice and chickenPort to Havana ing to visit Cuba by boat. could move into Cuba and the same ships For products that do not need to move loaded with sugar for the return voyage.Miami - Port Everglades 227 fast, ports near production areas take on a Currently, Brazil, the Dominican Republic comparative advantage, and a new set of nat- and Central American sugar growers supplyTampa 308 ural departure points emerge. For phos- the huge sugar refineries in Texas and phates, which are mined in Florida and used Louisiana. Jacksonville 529 for fertilizers, Tampa will be the only feasi- Shipping patterns in post-embargo Cuba New Orleans 599

Charleston 642

Houston 767

CUBANEWS February 1998 11 THE ECONOMY Per Capita Gross Domestic Product/Average Annual Rate 1991-1997 5 CEPAL Report on Cuban 5.3 4 Economy in 1997 4.1 3 3.6 3.6 2.9 2.9 2.8 Trying to put forward the most favorable 2 2.2 interpretation of the Cuban economy’s per- 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1 1.0 formance recently, Vice President Carlos 0.7 0.6 0

Lage declared that it had done better over 0 Nicaragua Haiti -0.1Cuba the last few years than the economies of Peru

Latin America in general. -1 Chile Brazil Bolivia “The gross domestic product of Cuba in Mexico Uruguay Ecuador Panama enezuela Honduras Paraguay Colombia -2 Argentina V

the last three years, including the estimate Guatemala El Salvador -3.7 for 1997, averages an annual growth rate of -3 -4.2 5 percent,” he told the state news media. Dom. Republic “The GDP of all Latin American countries, -4 including the estimate for 1997, averages an SOURCE: CEPAL, PRELIMINARY OVERVIEW OF THE ECONOMY OF LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN 1997 annual growth rate of less than 3 percent.” Economy of Latin America and the increased imports. “Brisk investment activi- Yes, but.... Caribbean 1997” (Sales No. E.97.II.G.13): ty (13.3 percent) contributed to higher out- A preliminary report on the economies of • “Perhaps the most unfavorable economic put. Consumption expanded by 2 percent. Latin American and Caribbean countries in factor was the fall in sugar production... • The performance of the agricultural sector 1997 prepared by the Economic which led to a decrease in the amount was “lackluster (0.5 percent) with negative Commission for Latin America (CEPAL, the exported. This had a severe impact on the consequences for the economy in terms of Spanish acronym) shows a much different economy as a whole, since sugar production food shortages.” Increased imports and picture when performance for the entire is used to guarantee foreign loans and is insufficient exports led to a scarcity of for- decade is evaluated. closely linked with the rest of the economy.” eign exchange. “For the first eight months, As the chart above shows, Cuba’s econo- • “Cuba continued to make headway with its the value of sales of agricultural produce on my during the 1990s fell by an average of 4.2 stabilization and structural adjustment pro- the open market improved slightly, with pri- percent per year, the worst showing by any gram. The focus of fiscal policy was to mod- vate sales representing 63.3 percent of the country in the region. Only Haiti, with a 3.7 ernize the tax structure to bear the brunt of total, while the State and cooperative sectors percent average annual decline, was even macroeconomic adjustment.” accounted for 33.5 percent and 3.2 percent, close. • “The non-financial public-sector deficit is respectively.” Chile led the way with average annual expected to narrow to 2 percent of GDP, • The balance of payments picture remained growth of 5.4 percent. Even Mexico, which compared with 2.5 percent in 1996, as a grim. “The positive capital account balance suffered a disastrous economic setback in result of the slight increase in income (0.2 was barely sufficient to finance the current 1995 and had to be bailed out by a huge percent) and the contraction in spending account deficit and international reserves U.S.-backed loan, showed average growth of (-0.6 percent), despite hurricane damage remained very low.” 1 percent annually. estimated at $800 million in mid-October Still, the CEPAL report was not altogether 1996.” negative in relation to Cuba, although it • Excess liquidity remains a problem. clearly relied heavily on figures provided by Money in circulation plus savings accounts the government rather than an independent (money balance) declined to 39 percent of study. (The difficulty of gauging Cuban eco- GDP, compared with 41 in 1996. A restric- nomic performance shows in the chart com- tive credit policy remains in effect. The paring GDPs, above. The figures for all of authorities continue to ration foreign exchange to government entities. the other countries in the region are based THE MIAMI HERALD PUBLISHING COMPANY on official figures converted into dollars at • “Progress was made with economic reforms.” The report mentioned re-structur- constant 1990 prices; Cuba alone has figures Editor Mark Seibel calculated on the basis of constant prices in ing of the banking system and establishment local currency.) of three duty-free zones. “Steps were taken Managing EditorJuan Vasquez In general, the report contains no surpris- to re-structure the ministries of agriculture Business ManagerIsabel Entenza es, but it serves to underline the important and the sugar industry to allow producers Contributing EditorArmando Portela greater autonomy and improve productivity trends and developments in the Cuban econ- Art DirectorEd Fiol omy. Some highlights of the CEPAL report levels, which remain unsatisfactory.” entitled “Preliminary Overview of the • Overall supply outpaced GDP due to CUBANEWSis a monthly publication of the Miami Herald Publishing Co. that reports on economic, political and commercial trends in Cuba. © Copyright 1998 by The Miami Herald Publishing Company. All rights reserved. Reproduction or transmission without the express written consent of CUBANEWSis strictly prohibit- ed. CUBANEWS, One Herald Plaza, Miami, Florida 33132. Toll-free telephone in Canada, the CALENDAR OF EVENTS United States, Puerto Rico & the U.S. Virgin Islands: 1-800-376-3324; outside these areas call Feb. 16 - 20 International seminar to focus on Cuban cigars. Sponsored by Habanos, S.A.(305) 376-3324. Fax: (305) 995-8026. Annual sub- scription rate for 12 issues is US Havana. $350. March 4 - 6 U.S.-Cuba Business Summit. Cancun (Mexico), with day trip to Havana. CUBANEWSis also available -line as part of Sponsored by Alamar Associates. Fee: $1,875. Information: (202) 778-1718. Fax: (202)Knight Ridder Inc.’s PressLink worldwide elec- 778-1070. tronic network. July 1 - 3 Economía ‘98. National seminar on the economy. Palacio de Convenciones. Havana. Tel: (537) 61-55-25. Fax: (537) 33-80-50. THE MIAMI HERALD PUBLISHING COMPANY July 13 - 19 The First Tourism Festival to be held in Santiago de Cuba, Will include cours- es on restoration of historic buildings and other subjects related to national heritage and Publisher & ChairmanDavid Lawrence, Jr. tourism. President Joe Natoli

12 CUBANEWSFebruary 1998