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From Nuclear Energy to the Bomb: the Proliferation Potential of New Nuclear Energy Programs

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From Nuclear Energy to the Bomb: the Proliferation Potential of New Nuclear Energy Programs The Centre for International Governance Innovation NuClear eNe rGy FuTureS PaPe rS The Nuclear Energy Futures Project From Nuclear Energy to the Bomb: The Proliferation Potential of New Nuclear Energy Programs JusTiN AlgEr Nucle ar Ener gy Futures Paper No. 6 September 2009 An elect ronic ver sion of t his pa per is available for dow nload at: www.cigionline.org Addressing Internat iona l Governa nce Cha lle nges Nuclear energy Futures Paper Summary Letter from the Executive Director This paper explores the connection between otherwise On behalf of The Centre for international governance peaceful nuclear energy programs and nuclear weapons innovation (Cigi), it is my pleasure to introduce the with the objective of clarifying their relationship. specific Nuclear Energy Futures Papers series. Cigi is a attention is paid to the technical aspects of proliferation, non-partisan think tank that addresses international particularly regarding scientific knowledge and expertise, governance challenges and provides informed advice nuclear material, technology and infrastructure. to decision makers on multilateral governance issues. Cigi supports research initiatives by recognized Main findings are: experts and promising academics; forms networks that link world-class minds across disciplines; informs • Nuclear energy and weapons are inextricably linked by and shapes dialogue among scholars, opinion leaders, the scientific principles that underscore both, but beyond key policy makers and the concerned public; and this basic understandingthe intricacies of the technical builds capacity by supporting excellence in policy- relationship between the two are complex. related scholarship. • A once-through nuclear program provides a basic foundation in nuclear science and reactor engineering Cigi’s Nuclear Energy Futures Project is chaired for a nuclear weapons program, but does not provide by Cigi distinguished fellow louise Fr échette and knowledge of sensitive fuel cycle technology or bomb directed by Cigi senior Fellow Trevor Findlay, design and assembly. Director of the Canadian Centre for Treaty Compliance • A peaceful nuclear energy program does, however, at the Norman Paterson school of international provide a state with much of the expertise, personnel, Affairs, Carleton university, Ottawa. The project is infrastructure and camouflage it would need to begin researching the scope of the purported nuclear energy work on a weapons program should it chose to do so. revival around the globe over the coming two decades • Acquiring a peaceful nuclear energy infrastructure and its implications for nuclear safety, security and does enhance a state’s capacity to develop nuclear nonproliferation. A major report to be published in weapons, but capacity is only one consideration and of 2009 will advance recommendations for strengthening secondary importance to other factors that drive state global governance in the nuclear field for consideration motivations for the bomb. by Canada and the international community. This series of papers presents research commissioned by the project from experts in nuclear energy or nuclear global governance. The resulting research will be used as intellectual ballast for the project report. Cigi's Nuclear Energy Futures Project is being conducted in partnership We encourage your analysis and commentary and with the Centre for Treaty Compliance at the Norman Paterson school welcome your thoughts. Please visit us online at www. of international Affairs, Carleton university, Ottawa. cigionline.org to learn more about the Nuclear Energy Futures Project and Cigi’s other research programs. issN 1919-2134 John english The opinions expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Centre for international governance Executive Director innovation or its Board of Directors and /or Board of governors. Copyright © 2009 The Centre for international governance innovation. This work was carried out with the support of The Centre for international governance innovation (Cigi), Waterloo, Ontario, Canada (www.cigionline.org). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non-commercial – No Derivatives license. To view this license, visit (www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/). For re-use or distribution, please include this copyright notice. The Centre for International Governance Innovation Introduction of next generation reactors, as well as turnkey operations in which the buying state does not have a major role in This paper considers the scientific and institutional the design or construction of the reactor (although it may capability that a peaceful nuclear energy program may or ultimately have a role in operating the reactor). This paper may not provide to a non-nuclear weapon state that assumes that all new power reactors built in non-nuclear wishes to develop a nuclear explosive device. 1 renewed weapon states will be subject to international Atomic interest in nuclear energy in dozens of states without a Energy Agency (iAEA) safeguards, although it does not current nuclear energy program raises the potential for a assess how difficult it would be for a state to circumvent diffusion of nuclear technology around the globe. The safeguards to divert nuclear material. proliferation of peaceful nuclear energy capacities to new states, many would argue, goes hand in hand with the This paper will first determine what can be learned from spread of latent capacities for developing nuclear explosive a “once-through” nuclear program that could help build devices, 2 due to the crossover of scientific knowledge a nuclear device. A once-through nuclear program uses and technologies. This paper asserts that while a peaceful natural uranium or low-enriched uranium (lEu) only once nuclear program provides a state with much of the tech - in a power reactor, thereby precluding any reprocessing. nology, knowledge, expertise and infrastructure required This type of program is typical of most state nuclear to obtain fissile material for a nuclear device, it does not programs and is unlikely to change with future new provide a state with sufficient expertise or the technology entrants, due in part to the web of unilateral, bilateral and 4 necessary to design and assemble one. A peaceful nuclear multilateral technology transfer restrictions designed program can put a country on the path to the technical to prevent the emergence of new enrichment and repro - 5 competence necessary to construct a nuclear device, but cessing states. These once-through nuclear energy pro - it does not remove all obstacles to acquiring fissile material, grams are expected to comprise the bulk of new nuclear nor does it provide the capability to weaponize and build in the coming decades as a part of the purported deliver a device. 3 nuclear revival. For the purposes of this paper, a peaceful nuclear energy Next, the paper specifies what enrichment or reprocessing program is defined as one in which a state is responsible technology can add to a state’s ability to build a nuclear for operating at least one current generation power reactor. device. Enrichment or reprocessing is required to produce As such, it excludes the potential proliferation resistance the material for a nuclear device, so these technologies constitute an important step towards a state acquiring the technical capability to do so. Finally, this paper outlines what is required for a state to 1 The author would like to acknowledge Dr. Harold A. Feiveson of Princeton university, Mr. Miles Pomper of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation make the leap from nuclear energy to a nuclear device. studies, and Dr. Jeremy Whitlock of Atomic Energy of Canada limited (AECl), as well as Dr. Trevor Findlay of the Canadian Centre for Treaty Compliance (CCTC) for their invaluable input. 2 For the purposes of this paper a nuclear device refers specifically to a nuclear explosive device, and not other peaceful nuclear devices such as cancer therapy machines, food irradiators, smoke detectors, and so forth. 4 For example, the Nuclear suppliers group, nuclear safeguards agreements and 3 For the purposes of this paper, the ability of a state to detonate a nuclear device bilateral nuclear cooperation agreements. will be considered the point of concern for technical proliferation. Weaponization 5 There are some exceptions. Brazil has recently started enrichment, while will not be addressed, although it is a challenging necessary step for a state Argentina, south Africa and south Korea are exploring pyroprocessing, a form of trying to obtain a fully deliverable nuclear arsenal. For more information about reprocessing, though these are far from established programs. Argentina is also the challenges of weaponization see Nuclear Threat initiative (2009). pursuing its own gaseous diffusion enrichment capability. Author Biography Justin Alger is a master’s student at The Norman Paterson in Arms Control and Disarmament offered by Carleton school of international Affairs, Carleton university, and university, and is a 2008-2009 recipient of the graduate the administrator and researcher for the Canadian Centre research Award for Disarmament, Arms Control and Non- for Treaty Compliance (CCTC), Cigi’s partner organization Proliferation, jointly offered by the simon’s Foundation in the Nuclear Energy Futures Project. in 2007 he was one and Foreign Affairs Canada. of two inaugural recipients of the William Barton Award Nuclear energy Futures Paper Once-through
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