Section 4VIEWS FROM THE CAPITALS Why Austria is at intellectual, and business rats, the co-governing right- establishment share the wing Bündnis Zukunft Öster- such odds with scepticism of Messrs reich, and the opposition Ankara Gusenbauer and Leitl. When right-wing Freedom Party for Austria’s chancellor being “soft on Turkey”. By Verena Ringler of the Wolfgang Schüssel and European Stability Foreign Minister Ursula Opinion polls show why Initiative (ESI) in Vienna Plassnik created a stand-off that tag is so unwelcome with their EU colleagues last for any politician in Austria Alfred Gusenbauer, who October over whether the today. In April 2004, a chairs the Austrian Social Union should open mem- survey by the Democratic Party, said not bership negotiations with Sozialwissenschaftliche long ago that “Turkey in Turkey, they were applauded Studiengesellschaft, found the EU would mean the by all Austrian political par- that 73% of those polled end of the EU.” And ties except the Greens, and said Turkey was not suited Christoph Leitl, the presi- by most pundits. When they to join the Union. Reasons dent of Austria's influential finally gave in to the com- included “the conflict with chamber of commerce and promise that opened the the Kurds” (39%) and a prominent player in the way for negotiations with “because Turks are mostly ruling People’s Party, Turkey, they found them- Muslim” (43%). A warned that “the EU selves criticised by the Eurobarometer survey in should not enlarge further opposition social democ- January of this year found in the next two decades”, adding that given the 40m AUSTRIA Anatolian peasants, and GOVERNING COALITION Head of State 97 SEATS OUT OF 183 14m unemployed within Heinz Fischer (SPÖ) ÖVP FPÖ-BZÖ the EU, one should not Head of Government (EPP-ED) encourage hopes for Wolfgang Schüssel (ÖVP) Next Elections: Nov 2006 seats membership which the EU INCOME PER HEAD 1989-2005 cannot live up to.” Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) 79 Social Democratic Party of Austria $32,961 Austria (SPÖ) 69 These are not isolated opin- Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) 18 ions, for most Austrian The Greens (GRUNE) 17 politicians right across the EU25 average $26,142 party spectrum as well as almost the entire political,

168 | Europe’s World Spring 2006 80% of Austrians opposed foreigner, anti-Muslim and (ÖVP) point to the costs of to Turkish EU-membership, anti-Turkey platform in the EU enlargement, the possi- and a mere 11% in favour. Vienna elections in October bility of mass immigration 2005, the far-right rump and the cultural argument So why have Austrians party of the former list of that Turkey is a “different been uncompromisingly in Jörg Haider appealed to civilisation”. But in practice the vanguard of opposition some 15% of the elec- the ÖVP not only supports to Turkish entry? Austrians torate. In the run-up to enlargement to include the still adamantly refuse to Austria’s takeover in Balkans, but has also prag- see the opportunities that January of the rotating EU matically endorsed EU could be created by presidency, the party adver- decision-making on Turkey. Turkish accession, with tised a “pro-Austria, anti- Chancellor Schüssel co- 78% believing that Turkey Turkey” petition to be signed Turkey’s candidate is too different culturally launched in 2006. status in Helsinki back in for accession to work (in 1999, and has signed suc- the EU-25 the figure is Political opinion on the cessive EU resolutions in 55%), while 72% reject the centre-left, the social 2002, 2004 and 2005. idea of Turkish accession democrats and some as a way to enhance Greens, explains its oppo- This degree of cross-party regional stability (EU-25 sition to Turkey by citing consensus means that 48%), and 71% doubt that globalisation, relations with Austria has not had a gen- Turkish accession would the US, geopolitical risk uine debate on Turkey at foster greater understand- and, above all, fears of EU any point in the past two ing between European and overstretch. Their broad years. One polling expert Islamic values (EU-25 47%). argument would seem to has remarked that “it is be that Turkish accession mainstream to bash the EU, How to explain this remark- would be a victory of capi- and common sense to able consensus, how deep talist interests over social oppose Turkey in the EU.” does it run and is it likely at and democratic ones. Ever since the EU parlia- all to soften? To answer Another strong considera- mentary elections in mid- these questions, it is impor- tion is the much more tac- 2004, when all Austria’s tant to distinguish between tical one that in the political parties had leading the three main anti-Turkey upcoming legislative elec- candidates who were camps in Austria: The far- tions later this year the opposed to Turkish EU right Freedom Party and its centre-left hopes to win entry, the political dynamics co-governing spin-off are votes away from the on Turkey have been easiest to understand as declining far-right. extremely one-sided. Even they are against the EU, those who seem willing to against enlargement, Thirdly, there is the see the benefits of Turkish against migration and, “Mitteleuropa” camp. EU accession have been unsurprisingly, against Players in and around the reluctant to speak out. On Turkey. Running on an anti- centre-right People’s Party issues like the adoption of

Spring 2006 Europe’s World | 169 the euro or the “big bang” Danes settle were expected to face up enlargement in 2004, the to our responsibilities after Austrian elite has led public down to “serious our 1992 No vote on the opinion to accept policies debate” on the Maastricht Treaty, the that were initially unpopular, EU’s crisis Danish government now but on Turkey the dynamic expects the French and the has been the opposite. By Anne Mette Dutch to present their Vestergaard, Chief advi- ideas on how the EU can Austrian institutions rang- sor on European Affairs move forward. So long as ing from political parties to at the Danish Institute for there is no clear signal on academia and research International Studies this from France and the institutes still have remark- Netherlands, the winning ably few contacts with their The failure of the constitu- argument during a cam- counterparts in Turkey, and tional treaty turned paign in Denmark would be industrialists have also Denmark’s EU agenda “You’d better say no until been conspicuously absent upside down. In May 2005, we know what text we are from the membership most Danes accepted the voting on”. debate despite their strong government’s line and the involvement in Turkey’s opinion polls promised a The Danish Parliament has hydro-electric power clear Danish Yes. It was responded quickly to the sector. also expected that a posi- idea of a reflection period tive outcome on the treaty by allocating some €1.8m And what about Turkey would be followed by one for a national debate on itself? Ankara only began or more referendums on the future of Europe. The to take special note of the abolition of Denmark’s idea is to support a wide Austria’s views when various opt-puts. But after range of events throughout political ranks looked to be the French and Dutch Nos, the country and end up closing against Turkey in opposition to the treaty with a report for the 2004. This was interpreted rose so sharply that Prime European Council in June by some Turkish analysts Minister Anders Fogh 2006. Thanks to our No to as an irrational detour Rasmussen had no choice Maastricht, we already back to the era of but to follow the UK and have solid experience of Hapsburg-Ottoman rivalry. postpone the referendum how to go about this. But Turkey seems to have until some unspecified it remains to be seen sensed that it had no hope point after the mid-2006 whether a public debate of influencing the Austrian EU summit. that is not linked to a debate, but nor did it in referendum will grab the any way try to exercise Danes are still strongly in attention of citizens and public diplomacy to turn favour of EU membership, the media. the tide. but if asked to ratify the constitution would say No. Under a “Citizens’ Agenda” [email protected] Yet, just as we in Denmark headline, five broad ques-

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