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China Handset Food Chain

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China Handset Food Chain Information Technology / Asia ex Japan 9 November 2012 What’s on the menu for 2013? China Handset Food Chain • We forecast 430m China smartphone shipments for 2013 Positive (initiation) • China smartphone players likely to pressure Apple and SEC’s Neutral ASPs; content and service providers well placed for growth • MediaTek remains our top pick; Spreadtrum, AAC Technology Negative and FIH also offer exposure to the China handset food chain Eric Chen (852) 2773 8702 [email protected] See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 38 China Handset Food Chain 9 November 2012 Contents What’s on the menu for 2013? ..................................................................................................... 5 Emerging trends in a fast-changing market ............................................................................. 5 Big rise in China smartphone shipments likely in 2013 ........................................................... 5 Global brands feeling the pain ................................................................................................. 6 SEC the only brand-name player that can compete on price with China smartphone makers 6 China smartphone makers primed for quad-core products ..................................................... 7 China smartphone market – IC makers to realise relatively large profit margins ................. 9 Players with wide range of chip offerings best positioned for 2013 ....................................... 9 More opportunities for domestic service providers ............................................................... 11 China mobile content providers offer growth potential but face risks to profitability .......... 11 China vs. global brands .............................................................................................................. 12 Turnkey approach and localised ecosystem ........................................................................... 12 BOM cost and shipment price gaps widening ........................................................................ 12 Three distinct clusters of players within China ...................................................................... 13 China players not as patent-sensitive ..................................................................................... 14 China’s ecosystems .................................................................................................................. 14 Qualcomm trying localised approach with lower-priced offerings ........................................ 15 Appendices ................................................................................................................................. 16 1. China on track to be the world’s biggest smartphone market this year ............................. 16 2. EDGE and TD-SCDMA segments to grow fastest in 2013 ................................................. 16 3. TD-SCDMA likely to gain traction in 2013 ......................................................................... 16 4. Food chain players in China ............................................................................................... 17 5. The CNY1,000 smartphone ............................................................................................... 20 6. Xiaomi vs. Apple ................................................................................................................. 21 7. Mobile Internet players in China ....................................................................................... 22 8. New models, new specs ...................................................................................................... 23 9. Who does what? ................................................................................................................. 24 Company Section MediaTek .................................................................................................................................... 29 RDA Microelectronics ............................................................................................................... 33 Click to read more: Greater China Smartphone Sector: Focus on functions and features 10 October 2012 Birdy Lu (886) 2 8758 6248 ([email protected]) - 2 - Information Technology / Asia ex Japan 9 November 2012 What’s on the menu for 2013? China Handset Food Chain • We forecast 430m China smartphone shipments for 2013 Positive (initiation) • China smartphone players likely to pressure Apple and SEC’s Neutral ASPs; content and service providers well placed for growth • MediaTek remains our top pick; Spreadtrum, AAC Technology Negative and FIH also offer exposure to the China handset food chain smartphone IC shipments would ■ What we recommend account for more than 50% of China’s As the main chipset provider in a smartphone shipments in 2013, fast-growing market, MediaTek driven by: 1) intense competition in (2454 TT, TWD317, Buy [1]) remains chipset migration between MediaTek our top sector pick. Rival RDA’s (Not Eric Chen and Qualcomm, and 2) domestic rated) long-term prospects appear to (852) 2773 8702 makers’ aggressive shift into multi- hinge on its ramping up EDGE [email protected] core devices. Tier-one smartphone smartphone IC shipments from giants Apple and Samsung 2Q13. As for Spreadtrum (SPRD US, Lynn Cheng Electronics (SEC) will likely face USD21.26, Underperform [4]), we (886) 2 8758 6253 are concerned about possible build- [email protected] blended ASP pressure from the China smartphone players from 2013 up in its inventory toward year-end, given our forecast that China’s TD- onward. SCDMA smartphone shipments in ■ What's new 4Q12 will total 20m units, from 8m Within the China smartphone We assess the outlook and trends in 3Q12 and 5m in 1H12, backed by supply chain, we believe chipset that we expect to prevail for the China Mobile’s promotion. Risks to makers are the best placed to realise China Smartphone Sector in 2013, our sector view include lower-than- analysing the unique characteristics relatively large profit margins, given expected handset shipments in 2013. of the China supply chain, along their value to the chain in terms of with the positioning and prospects creativity, system design and ■ How we differ for the major Greater China players. technology. We are the first broker to provide detailed forecasts for the China ■ What's the impact China mobile content providers smartphone food chain and to look Sustained growth in China have potential to boost growth, at their implications for the global smartphone shipments in 2013 but face profitability risks too supply chain. We forecast shipments of 430m China’s mobile content market has a distinctly “local” ecosystem. units for 2013, up from 240m for Key stock calls 2012E and 64m for 2011. Our Smartphone users’ experience is constrained by the limited quality New Prev. projections have China’s MediaTek (2454 TT) smartphone market accounting for and capacity of 3G mobile data Rating Buy Buy more than 40% of global services in China, intermittent Target 383.00 420.00 smartphone shipments in 2013, up problems accessing foreign content, Upside S 20.8% from 27% for 2012E and 11% and a lack of applications with Spreadtrum Communications (SPRD US) estimated for 2011. This growth localised functions and interfaces. Rating Underperform Underperform should be a big boost to smartphone Target 18.40 18.40 players with exposure to China. We expect consolidation of the Downside T 13.5% smartphone industry in China to AAC Technologies (2018 HK) Impact on global players continue. With China set to Rating Buy Buy experience further growth in its Target 34.50 34.50 We expect the performance/ Upside S 19.8% technology gap between the global open retail market, as opposed to operator-dominated channels, we Foxconn International Holdings (2038 HK) brands and China players to narrow Rating Buy Buy rapidly in the coming months. On our expect domestic white-label product Target 3.80 3.80 forecasts, dual- and quad-core players to make a comeback and Upside S 6.1% gain significant market share. Source: Daiwa forecasts. See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 38 China Handset Food Chain 9 November 2012 Sector stocks: key indicators EPS (local curr.) Share Rating Target price (local curr.) FY1 FY2 Company Name Stock code Price New Prev. New Prev. % chg New Prev. % chg New Prev. % chg AAC Technologies 2018 HK 28.80 Buy Buy 34.50 34.50 0.0% 1.420 1.420 0.0% 1.888 1.888 0.0% Foxconn International Holdings 2038 HK 3.58 Buy Buy 3.80 3.80 0.0% (0.026) (0.026) 0.0% 0.002 0.002 0.0% MediaTek 2454 TT 317.00 Buy Buy 383.00 420.00 (8.8%) 13.203 14.426 (8.5%) 19.137 21.093 (9.3%) Spreadtrum Communications SPRD US 21.26 Underperform Underperform 18.40 18.40 0.0% 2.114 2.114 0.0% 2.057 2.057 0.0% Source: Daiwa forecasts; note: stock prices as of close on 8 November 2012 - 4 - China Handset Food Chain 9 November 2012 value of the IC makers to the China supply chain to these companies’ creativity, advanced system design, and technology. MediaTek remains our preferred exposure to the China smartphone hardware supply chain, given its status as the major chipset provider, backed by its advanced technology, within a fast- What’s on the menu for growing market. As for MediaTek’s major rival, Qualcomm, we see its exposure to China declining in 2013? 2013 in the face of increased shipments of EDGE smartphones
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