SPECIAL REPORT TURKEY February 6th 2016 Erdogan’s new sultanate 20160206_SRturkey.indd 1 19/01/2016 10:24 SPECIAL REPORT TURKEY Erdogan’s new sultanate Under Recep Tayip Erdogan and his AK party, Turkey has become richer and more confident. But the party’s iron grip is becoming counterproductive, says Max Rodenbeck SEEN IN SILHOUETTE from a commuter ferry bustling across the Bospo- CONTENTS rus, parts of Istanbul seem to have changed little from centuries past. Looking to the west, towards Europe, the old walled city is still capped by 3 Politics multiple domes and spiky minarets. But turn to the east, towards Asia, Getting off the train and a different picture unfolds. Standing as sentries to the narrow strait, giant gantry cranes heave 4 The AKP Softly, softly containers onto waiting ships. Beyond them, along the low-slung Mar- mara shore, march soaring ranks of high-rise buildings. To the north, the 6 The economy hills on the Asian side of the Bosporus prickle with a metallic forest of Erdoganomics communicationstowers. And on the highestofthose hillsrises a startling mirror to the old Istanbul: the giant bulbous dome and six rocket-like 8 Identity Proud to be a Turk minarets of a colossal new mosque (pictured). When finished later this year, this will be Turkey’s biggest-ever house ofprayer. 10 Urban development The scale and symbolism of the mosque, like so much of the fren- The lure of the city zied construction that is reshaping this city, reflect the will and vision of one man: Recep Tayyip Erdogan. After over two decades in power, from 12 Foreign policy Alone in the world 1994 as mayorofIstanbul, from 2003 as Turkey’s prime ministerand since ACKNOWLEDGMENTS August 2014 as president, Mr Erdogan towers over his country’s political 14 Looking ahead landscape. To detractors he is a would-be sultan, implacable, cunning A melancholy mood The author owes a special debt to and reckless in his ambition. To admirers he is the embodiment of a re- the inspiration of the late Tahir Elci, as well as thanks to numerous wise vived national spirit, a man of the people elevated to worldly glory, a and helpful interlocutors not pugnacious righter ofwrongs and a bold defender ofthe faith. mentioned in the text, among them Mr Erdogan has presided over some startling transformations. In Toni Alaranta, Selin Sayek Boke, ¡ two short decades his country, and most dramatically its long-neglected Cengiz Candar ahap Coskun, Urs Fruehauf, Metin Gurcan, Cemalettin Anatolian hinterland, has moved from relative poverty and provincial- Hasimi, Gareth Jenkins, Ibrahim ism to relative wealth and sophistication. An inward-looking nation that A list of sources is at Kalin, Ersin Kalaycioglu, Mehmet exported little except labour has become a regional economic power- Economist.com/specialreports Kaya, Ertugrul Kurkcu, Sefer Levent, house, a tourist magnet as well as a haven forrefugees, and an increasing- Soli Ozel, Safak Pavey, Lale Sariibra- An audio interview with himoglu, Emma Sinclair-Webb, Ozgur ly important global hub for energy, trade and transport. the author is at Unluhisarcikli, Emine Usakligil, In many ways Turkey’s 78m people have never had it so good. Since Economist.com/audiovideo/ Mesut Yegen and Murat Yetkin. the 1990s the proportion of those living below the official poverty line 1 specialreports The Economist February 6th 2016 1 SPECIAL REPORT TURKEY 2 has declined from the teens to low single digits, and the share of September he engineered the replacement of31members (out of the middle class has doubled to over 40%. By every measure of 50) of the party’s politburo with people personally loyal to him. livingstandards, the gap between Turkeyand fellowmembers of One of these, his son-in law, is now also a cabinet minister; and the OECD, a club ofmostly rich countries, has shrunkmarkedly. one of the party’s new members of parliament is Mr Erdogan’s Under the subtle but relentless Islamising influence of the former chauffeur. Justice and Development (AK) party, co-founded and led by Mr Today there is no doubt about who is boss. Bureaucrats in Erdogan until he became the nation’s (theoretically non-parti- Ankara, the capital, respond to the merest whisper from the sa- san) president, the Sunni Muslim component of Turkey’s com- ray (palace), the grandiose 1,000-room presidential complex, plex national identity has strengthened. The long shadow of Ke- built atop a hill on the city’s outskirts at a reported cost of $615m mal Ataturk, the ruthless moderniser who 90 years ago built a and opened in 2014. The famously short-fused Mr Erdogan will secular republic on the ashes of the Ottoman Empire, has faded. almost certainly continue to dominate Turkish politics until the The AK party has marched the army, long given to ejecting elect- end of his term in 2019, and very possibly beyond: some say he ed governments from power, back to its barracks. Turkey has re- has set his sights on 2023, the 100th anniversary ofthe Turkish re- sumed its role as turntable between east and west. public. By then he would have served at the helm of the Turkish When the AK party stumbled badly in parliamentary elec- state for farlonger than Ataturkhimself. tions in June 2015, pundits were quick to herald an end to Mr Er- To his party’s pious core constituency, that is something to dogan’s long winning streak. Whiffs of corruption and abuse of rejoice in. Much of the country’s urban working class, as well as powerhad tainted hisparty, and terroristactsbyIslamicState (IS) those living in the stretch of central Anatolia sometimes known and the influx of more than 2m Syrian refugees into the country as Turkey’s Koran belt, share this cult-like devotion to the former had made Turks question his judgment. food vendor and semi-professional footballer turned statesman. OtherAK voters, such as small businessmen and property devel- Who dares, wins opers, may be warier of Mr Erdogan. They support the party Shorn of a parliamentary majority for the first time since mainlybecause ofitsrecord ofeconomicgrowth and relative sta- 2002, the AK party should have sought a coalition partner, but in- bility after decades of turbulence. The AK’s swift comeback be- stead Mr Erdogan boldly gambled on a new election on Novem- tween the June and November polls reflected fear of a return to ber 1st. To everyone’s astonishment his party surged back, political volatility as much as enthusiasm for its policies. trouncing a trio of rival parties. With 317 seats in the Grand Na- The collapse last summer of peace talks between the gov- tional Assembly, Turkey’s unicameral 550-seat parliament, the ernment and the Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK), an armed rebel party can now again legislate at will. group, raises the spectre of more bloodshed. The talks had made However, its majority is insufficient to allow it to revise Tur- little progress but did much to calm the restless south-east, a re- key’s 1982 constitution on its own. That was what Mr Erdogan gion dominated by ethnic Kurds, who make up 15-20% of Tur- had been tryingto achieve in the June election, in the hope ofcre- key’s population nationwide. Fighting in the region in the 1980s ating a presidential system that would greatly widen his ostensi- and 1990s had left some 40,000 soldiers, rebels and civilians bly limited (but in fact extensive) powers as president. In the ab- dead and displaced perhaps 1m Kurds from their homes. Soon sence of a two-thirds majority, he must work in tandem with his afterthe June election, clashesbetween securityforces and Kurd- hand-picked prime minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, who is a less di- ish activists, which had been suspended for two years, resumed. visive figure. In the monthssince, heavilyarmed police have clamped curfews Ahead of the November election Mr Erdogan wisely toned on Kurdish towns. The clashes have left well over a hundred ci- down rhetoric about expanding his own powers but quietly vilians dead, in addition to scores of Turkish security men and, strengthened his control over the party. At a party meeting last says the Turkish army, more than 400 alleged PKK guerrillas. 1 2 The Economist February 6th 2016 SPECIAL REPORT TURKEY 2 At the same time Mr Erdogan faces rising economic head- With lukewarm support from its allies, Turkey has tried to winds. Between 2002 and 2007 Turkey’s GDP grew at an annual calm the excitement. But given its support for militias fighting average of 6.8% and its exports tripled, but since then GDP against Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, and Russia’s growing growth has settled at around 3.5% a year and exports have re- military commitment to his survival, there could well be more mained virtually flat. Income per person, which the AK party clashes. Turkey seems in danger ofstumbling into an unplanned four years ago rashly promised would rise to $25,000 a year but potentially costly fight. It imports most of its gas from Russia, within a decade, is stuckat around $10,000. and Turkish construction firms have well over $10 billion-worth None of this is disastrous, and Tur- ofRussian contracts on their books. key’s economy is far more robust than it Now Turkey faces a new threat. A double suicide-bombing used to be. The trouble is that Mr Erdo- in Ankara on October 10th last year aimed at a march by leftist gan’s government has continued to be- trade unions and Kurdish activists killed more than 100 people. have as if the good times had kept rolling.