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The Overconfidence Effect and IT Professionals Glen Van Der Vyver University of Southern Queensland, [email protected]
Association for Information Systems AIS Electronic Library (AISeL) European Conference on Information Systems ECIS 2004 Proceedings (ECIS) 2004 The Overconfidence Effect and IT Professionals Glen Van Der Vyver University of Southern Queensland, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: http://aisel.aisnet.org/ecis2004 Recommended Citation Der Vyver, Glen Van, "The Overconfidence Effect and IT Professionals" (2004). ECIS 2004 Proceedings. 163. http://aisel.aisnet.org/ecis2004/163 This material is brought to you by the European Conference on Information Systems (ECIS) at AIS Electronic Library (AISeL). It has been accepted for inclusion in ECIS 2004 Proceedings by an authorized administrator of AIS Electronic Library (AISeL). For more information, please contact [email protected]. THE OVERCONFIDENCE EFFECT AND IT PROFESSIONALS Van Der Vyver, Glen, University of Southern Queensland, Department of Information Systems, West Street, 4350 Toowoomba, Australia, [email protected] Abstract Information Technology has become a core activity in most, if not all, corporations. Although IT managers continue to be under-represented in executive management, the very centrality of information technology to corporate success or failure suggests that this situation cannot endure. It has been suggested that information technology managers are too narrowly focused and technically oriented for strategic roles in the corporation. A key skill required of the executive relates to making decisions in situations imbued with uncertainty. This paper examines a cognitive process, the overconfidence effect, which has been shown to influence good decision making. An analysis is presented as to the susceptibility of IT professionals to the overconfidence effect when compared to accounting / finance and marketing professionals. -
Notes on Diving in Ancient Egypt
A Brief History of Underwater Enterprise and Exploration The incentives to risk one’s life underwater from the earliest records of diving: 1) Subsistence and general aquatic harvest 2) Commerce/salvage 3) Warfare A sponge diver about to take the plunge, Classical Greece ca. 500 BCE The beginnings: subsistence in Ancient Egypt: skin divers netting fish in the Nile th Tomb of Djar, 11 Dynasty (ca. 2000 BCE) ‘Pull out well! (It is) a Happy day! Measure you, measure you, for you, good great fishes’ Text and image from the tomb of Ankhtifi (ca. 2100 BCE) The beginnings: other kinds of aquatic/underwater harvest: mother of pearl (left) and sponge diving (right) Mesopotamia (southern Iraq, ca. 2500 BCE) Classical Greece (ca. 500 BCE) The so-called ‘Standard of Ur’: a mosaic of lapis lazuli A sponge diver about to take the (from the exotic region of Afghanistan) and mother of plunge with a knife and a sack, the pearl (from the exotic source of a seabed), deposited in jar was also deposited in an elite tomb an elite tomb in Mesopotamia The beginnings: in search of exotic and high value things (things difficult to access/procure) Epic of Gilgamesh (composed in Mesopotamia no later than ca. 2100 BCE) records a heroic dive after a ‘plant of immortality’ on the seabed ‘He tied heavy stones *to his feet+ They pulled him down into the deep [and he saw the plant] He took the plant though it pricked his hands He cut the heavy stones from his feet The sea cast him up upon the shore’ The value of mother of pearl and sea sponge resides, in part, in the process of procuring them The beginnings: salvaging lost cargoes (lost valuable things) Scyllias and his daughter Hydna: the first professional divers known by name, famed for salvaging huge volumes of gold and silver (tribute and booty) from a Persian fleet in the Aegean that lost many ships in a storm (ca. -
MAIB Annual Report 2020
2020 Marine Accident Recommendations and Statistics ANNUAL REPORT ANNUAL H NC RA N B IO GAT TI S INVE T DEN ACCI This document is posted on our website: www.gov.uk/maib Marine Accident Investigation Branch Email: [email protected] RINE First Floor, Spring Place, 105 Commercial Road Telephone: 023 8039 5500 MA Southampton, SO15 1GH United Kingdom 9 June 2021 MARINE ACCIDENT INVESTIGATION BRANCH The Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB) examines and investigates all types of marine accidents to or on board UK vessels worldwide, and other vessels in UK territorial waters. Located in ofices in Southampton, the MAIB is a separate, independent branch within the Department for Transport (DfT). The head of the MAIB, the Chief Inspector of Marine Accidents, reports directly to the Secretary of State for Transport. © Crown copyright 2021 This publication, excluding any logos, may be reproduced free of charge in any format or medium for research, private study or for internal circulation within an organisation. This is subject to it being reproduced accurately and not used in a misleading context. The material must be acknowledged as Crown copyright and the title of the publication specified. Details of third party copyright material may not be listed in this publication. Details should be sought in the corresponding accident investigation report or [email protected] contacted for permission to use. CONTENTS CHIEF INSPECTOR'S STATEMENT 1 PART 1 - 2020: CASUALTY REPORTS TO MAIB 5 Statistical overview 5 Summary of investigations started -
Sponge Fishing in Tarpon Springs, Florida Michael Suver University of South Florida, [email protected]
University of South Florida Scholar Commons Graduate Theses and Dissertations Graduate School January 2012 Environmental Change and Place-Based Identities: Sponge Fishing in Tarpon Springs, Florida Michael Suver University of South Florida, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd Part of the Geography Commons Scholar Commons Citation Suver, Michael, "Environmental Change and Place-Based Identities: Sponge Fishing in Tarpon Springs, Florida" (2012). Graduate Theses and Dissertations. http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd/4410 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at Scholar Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Graduate Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Scholar Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Environmental Change and Place-Based Identities: Sponge Fishing in Tarpon Springs, Florida by Michael Suver A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts Department of Geography, Environment, and Planning College of Arts and Sciences University of South Florida Major Professor: Pratyusha Basu, Ph.D. M. Martin Bosman, Ph.D. Jayajit Chakraborty, Ph.D. Date of Approval: November 8, 2012 Keywords: climate change, Greek ethnicity, environmental geography, Gulf of Mexico Copyright © 2012, Michael Suver Acknowledgments I could not have completed this thesis without the strength of the Lord which has enabled me to lay aside all of my weight and finish the race set before me. I am also very thankful to Gabrielle, my fiancé who has been an encouragement and a comfort to get me through the writing process. -
The Art of Thinking Clearly
For Sabine The Art of Thinking Clearly Rolf Dobelli www.sceptrebooks.co.uk First published in Great Britain in 2013 by Sceptre An imprint of Hodder & Stoughton An Hachette UK company 1 Copyright © Rolf Dobelli 2013 The right of Rolf Dobelli to be identified as the Author of the Work has been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means without the prior written permission of the publisher, nor be otherwise circulated in any form of binding or cover other than that in which it is published and without a similar condition being imposed on the subsequent purchaser. A CIP catalogue record for this title is available from the British Library. eBook ISBN 978 1 444 75955 6 Hardback ISBN 978 1 444 75954 9 Hodder & Stoughton Ltd 338 Euston Road London NW1 3BH www.sceptrebooks.co.uk CONTENTS Introduction 1 WHY YOU SHOULD VISIT CEMETERIES: Survivorship Bias 2 DOES HARVARD MAKE YOU SMARTER?: Swimmer’s Body Illusion 3 WHY YOU SEE SHAPES IN THE CLOUDS: Clustering Illusion 4 IF 50 MILLION PEOPLE SAY SOMETHING FOOLISH, IT IS STILL FOOLISH: Social Proof 5 WHY YOU SHOULD FORGET THE PAST: Sunk Cost Fallacy 6 DON’T ACCEPT FREE DRINKS: Reciprocity 7 BEWARE THE ‘SPECIAL CASE’: Confirmation Bias (Part 1) 8 MURDER YOUR DARLINGS: Confirmation Bias (Part 2) 9 DON’T BOW TO AUTHORITY: Authority Bias 10 LEAVE YOUR SUPERMODEL FRIENDS AT HOME: Contrast Effect 11 WHY WE PREFER A WRONG MAP TO NO -
Cochran Undersea Technology
Cochran Undersea Technology www.DiveCochran.com Technical Publication ©2013 7Apr13 Task Loading While scuba diving, the diver wants to focus on his Mission whether it be cruising a reef, photographing fish, cave diving, disarming a mine, or just diving with a buddy for the fun of it. The diver doesn’t need or want to be distracted or concerned by equipment tasks that could be easily avoided. Cochran dive computers have the lowest task loading of any unit on the market today. This is one reason why Cochran is the only dive computer used by NATO, the US Navy, and other international militaries. Cochran’s goal is to allow Cochran dive computer owners to maximize their diving experience. Toward this goal, Cochran has addressed the following issues: No Buttons – no Worries Regardless of how well a product is designed, having pushbuttons is always less reliable than not having pushbuttons. Pushbuttons can be troublesome when wearing gloves. Trying to press a pushbutton or combination of pushbuttons while carrying a camera and taking a picture is at best, challenging. Cochran dive computers are fully automatic and have no pushbuttons. If desired to change any settings in a Cochran dive computer while on the surface, the diver uses the three permanent stainless contacts on the side or bottom of the unit. Batteries Cochran dive computers have the longest battery life. By checking for battery warnings just before a dive, the diver can be assured that when he starts a dive there is sufficient battery power to complete it. Constantly checking the battery while in a dive is not necessary with a Cochran dive computer. -
Overestimation of Knowledge About Word Meanings: the “Misplaced Meaning” Effect
Cognitive Science (2014) 1–30 Copyright © 2014 Cognitive Science Society, Inc. All rights reserved. ISSN: 0364-0213 print / 1551-6709 online DOI: 10.1111/cogs.12122 Overestimation of Knowledge About Word Meanings: The “Misplaced Meaning” Effect Jonathan F. Kominsky, Frank C. Keil Department of Psychology, Yale University Received 18 February 2013; received in revised form 4 September 2013; accepted 9 September 2013 Abstract Children and adults may not realize how much they depend on external sources in understand- ing word meanings. Four experiments investigated the existence and developmental course of a “Misplaced Meaning” (MM) effect, wherein children and adults overestimate their knowledge about the meanings of various words by underestimating how much they rely on outside sources to determine precise reference. Studies 1 and 2 demonstrate that children and adults show a highly consistent MM effect, and that it is stronger in young children. Study 3 demonstrates that adults are explicitly aware of the availability of outside knowledge, and that this awareness may be related to the strength of the MM effect. Study 4 rules out general overconfidence effects by examining a metalinguistic task in which adults are well calibrated. Keywords: Knowledge; Lexicon; Word learning; Overconfidence; Metacognition 1. Introduction Confidence about understanding the meanings of many familiar words may be mis- placed. In particular, when “meaning” is understood as personally knowing the specific features that guide reference, one may be very overconfident. People may use words freely and refer successfully in communications with others and therefore assume they have rich mental representations of their meanings. Yet, in many cases, these meanings may be largely represented in other minds or distributed throughout a community. -
Let Your Light Shine
The Lutheran Beacon Let your light shine . WWW.SELC.LCMS.ORG Published by the SELC District of the Lutheran Church - Missouri Synod MAY 2016 St. John (Cudahy WI) Celebrates Slovak Heritage Celebrating Our Life in Christ by Rev. Carl Krueger St. John, Cudahy WI is celebrating 110 years of Ministry! Founded in 1906 by Slovak Immigrants, St. John “kicked-off” this Anniversary observance year with English/Slovak Communion Worship Services led by the “last-remaining-100% Slovak Heritage-full-time-active- Slovak-Pastors”, and a Slovak menu dinner. At the turn of the 20th Century, Slovakia was ruled by the Hungarian Empire, and subjected to political, social, and religious oppression and persecution. The United States was seen as the land of freedom and opportunity. Slovak men made their way to the Milwaukee area Happy Mother’s Day and found work at the Patrick Cudahy Meat Packing Company May 8th slaughtering and processing beef and pork. The men worked long hours, saved money, then sent for their wives and families. Almost every Slovak adult packed their Slovak Bible and their Slovak Hymnal. First, families found homes, then they sought to establish a Church. “The Slovak Evangelical Lutheran Church of the Unaltered Augsburg Confession, St. John the Baptizer” was founded October 1906, with the city of Cudahy established the same year. The Pastor of a near- by German Lutheran Church provided pastoral care and worship services, along with visiting Slovak Pastors from Chicago IL and Whiting IN. To obtain their own Pastor from the Seminary, St. John needed to join the Slovak Evangelical Lutheran Church (SELC). -
Behavioral Issues – Overconfidence
Behavioral Issues – Overconfidence Simon Gervais Duke University ([email protected]) June 29, 2019 FTG Summer School – Wharton School Intro OC in Markets Emergence of OC OC in Firms Contracting with OC Conclusion Behavioral Issues – Overconfidence | FTG Summer School – June 29, 2019 2 / 98 Intro OC in Markets Emergence of OC OC in Firms Contracting with OC Conclusion Lecture Overview Psychology in Finance. Behavioral/cognitive biases: Overconfidence, aribution bias, optimism and wishful thinking, ambiguity aversion, recency bias, loss aversion, regret aversion, etc. Lead to biased financial decision-making: Trading, financial investments, diversification, real investment, corporate policies, etc. Psychology and Overconfidence. DeBondt and Thaler (1995): “[P]erhaps the most robust finding in the psychology of judgment is that people are overconfident.” Fischhoff, Slovic and Lichtenstein (1977), Alpert and Raiffa (1982): People tend to overestimate the precision of their knowledge and information. Svenson (1981), Taylor and Brown (1988): Most individuals overestimate their abilities, see themselves as beer than average, and see themselves beer than others see them. Behavioral Issues – Overconfidence | FTG Summer School – June 29, 2019 3 / 98 Intro OC in Markets Emergence of OC OC in Firms Contracting with OC Conclusion Lecture Overview (cont’d) Who’s Impacted? Griffin and Tversky (1992): Experts tend to be more overconfident than relatively inexperienced individuals. Einhorn (1980): Overconfidence is more severe for tasks with delayed and vaguer feedback. Many fields: investment bankers (Staël von Holstein, 1972), engineers (Kidd, 1970), entrepreneurs (Cooper, Woo, and Dunkelberg, 1988), lawyers (Wagenaar and Keren, 1986), managers (Russo and Schoemaker, 1992). Lecture Objectives. Development of a theoretical framework to model overconfidence. -
Critical Systems
Critical Systems ©Ian Sommerville 2004 Software Engineering, 7th edition. Chapter 3 Slide 1 Objectives ● To explain what is meant by a critical system where system failure can have severe human or economic consequence. ● To explain four dimensions of dependability - availability, reliability, safety and security. ● To explain that, to achieve dependability, you need to avoid mistakes, detect and remove errors and limit damage caused by failure. ©Ian Sommerville 2004 Software Engineering, 7th edition. Chapter 3 Slide 2 Topics covered ● A simple safety-critical system ● System dependability ● Availability and reliability ● Safety ● Security ©Ian Sommerville 2004 Software Engineering, 7th edition. Chapter 3 Slide 3 Critical Systems ● Safety-critical systems • Failure results in loss of life, injury or damage to the environment; • Chemical plant protection system; ● Mission-critical systems • Failure results in failure of some goal-directed activity; • Spacecraft navigation system; ● Business-critical systems • Failure results in high economic losses; • Customer accounting system in a bank; ©Ian Sommerville 2004 Software Engineering, 7th edition. Chapter 3 Slide 4 System dependability ● For critical systems, it is usually the case that the most important system property is the dependability of the system. ● The dependability of a system reflects the user’s degree of trust in that system. It reflects the extent of the user’s confidence that it will operate as users expect and that it will not ‘fail’ in normal use. ● Usefulness and trustworthiness are not the same thing. A system does not have to be trusted to be useful. ©Ian Sommerville 2004 Software Engineering, 7th edition. Chapter 3 Slide 5 Importance of dependability ● Systems that are not dependable and are unreliable, unsafe or insecure may be rejected by their users. -
2011 NOAA Diving Program Annual Report
NOAA Diving Program 2011 Annual Report 31 December 2011 NOAA Diving Center 7600 Sand Point Way NE Seattle, WA 98115 NOAA Diving Program - Annual Report 2011 Summary For over 40 years, NOAA divers have safely, efficiently, and cost-effectively collected data and performed tasks underwater in support of NOAA goals and objectives. Fiscal year 2011 was no exception. FY11 continued to be a year of change and transition for the NOAA Diving Program (NDP) with the implementation of new standards, policies and procedures designed to increase safety and ensure compliance with federal regulations. Nine new policies were implemented, a new Working Diving standards and safety manual was adopted, and a new Diving Unit Safety Assessment (DUSA) program was initiated. This year, when compared to FY 2010, the Program experienced a 09% (44) decrease in the number of divers, a 01% (130) decrease in the number of dives performed, and a 05% (471) decrease in the total hours of bottom time logged by NOAA divers. These data do not include dives conducted by reciprocity partners which would have significantly impacted the totals in each category. Of the total number of dives recorded (13,859), 71% (9,845) were classified as ‘scientific,’ 14% (1,971) were ‘working,’ and 26% (3,550) were ‘training or proficiency’ (see Chart 1). These data represent almost no change in the number of scientific dives, a 12% decrease in working dives compared to FY10, and a 09% decrease in training and proficiency dives. Should the proposed alternate diving standards, currently under review by OSHA, be approved, the Program may see an increase in the number of working dives performed each year due to the lessening of restrictions on Nitrox breathing mixtures and the ability to conduct working dives without a chamber on site. -
Biomechanics of Safe Ascents Workshop
PROCEEDINGS OF BIOMECHANICS OF SAFE ASCENTS WORKSHOP — 10 ft E 30 ft TIME AMERICAN ACADEMY OF UNDERWATER SCIENCES September 25 - 27, 1989 Woods Hole, Massachusetts Proceedings of the AAUS Biomechanics of Safe Ascents Workshop Michael A. Lang and Glen H. Egstrom, (Editors) Copyright © 1990 by AMERICAN ACADEMY OF UNDERWATER SCIENCES 947 Newhall Street Costa Mesa, CA 92627 All Rights Reserved No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by photostat, microfilm, or any other means, without written permission from the publishers Copies of these Proceedings can be purchased from AAUS at the above address This workshop was sponsored in part by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Department of Commerce, under grant number 40AANR902932, through the Office of Undersea Research, and in part by the Diving Equipment Manufacturers Association (DEMA), and in part by the American Academy of Underwater Sciences (AAUS). The U.S. Government is authorized to produce and distribute reprints for governmental purposes notwithstanding the copyright notation that appears above. Opinions presented at the Workshop and in the Proceedings are those of the contributors, and do not necessarily reflect those of the American Academy of Underwater Sciences PROCEEDINGS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY OF UNDERWATER SCIENCES BIOMECHANICS OF SAFE ASCENTS WORKSHOP WHOI/MBL Woods Hole, Massachusetts September 25 - 27, 1989 MICHAEL A. LANG GLEN H. EGSTROM Editors American Academy of Underwater Sciences 947 Newhall Street, Costa Mesa, California 92627 U.S.A. An American Academy of Underwater Sciences Diving Safety Publication AAUSDSP-BSA-01-90 CONTENTS Preface i About AAUS ii Executive Summary iii Acknowledgments v Session 1: Introductory Session Welcoming address - Michael A.