MEASURING the HEALTH of the Liberal International Order
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
BUILDING A SUSTAINABLE INTERNATIONAL ORDER A RAND Project to Explore U.S. Strategy in a Changing World MEASURING THE HEALTH OF THE Liberal International Order Michael J. Mazarr Astrid Stuth Cevallos Miranda Priebe Andrew Radin Kathleen Reedy Alexander D. Rothenberg Julia A. Thompson C O R P O R A T I O N Jordan Willcox For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR1994 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication ISBN: 978-0-8330-9802-3 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2017 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover design by Dori Walker Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface In this report, we analyze the health of the existing post–World War II liberal international order and draw implications from that analysis for future U.S. policy. To evaluate the status of the existing order, we examined several categories of indicators, including both inputs (such as state participation in and attitudes toward order) and outcomes that reflect the order’s primary objectives (such as economic liberalization and interdependence, peace among great powers, and adherence to the order’s norms). Ultimately, we found that the postwar order continues to enjoy many elements of stability but is increasingly threatened by major geopolitical and domestic socioeconomic trends that are calling into question its fundamental assumptions. This report is part of Building a Sustainable International Order, a larger RAND Corporation project that seeks to understand the existing international order, assess current challenges to the order, and recommend future U.S. policies with respect to the order. For more information on the project, visit www.rand.org/nsrd/projects/ international-order. This research was sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense’s Office of Net Assessment and conducted within the Inter- national Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and develop- ment center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community. iii iv Measuring the Health of the Liberal International Order For more information on the RAND International Security and Defense Policy Center, see www.rand.org/nsrd/ndri/centers/isdp or contact the director (contact information is provided on the web page). Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................. ix Tables .............................................................................. xi Summary ..........................................................................xii Acknowledgments ............................................................ xxiii Abbreviations ................................................................... xxv CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 The Order and Its Health ......................................................... 4 Challenges with Measurement ..................................................11 Methodology ......................................................................14 Structure of the Report .......................................................... 24 CHAPTER TWO Participation in Formal Regional and International Institutions ..... 27 Steady Institutional Participation ...............................................29 Integrating International Order into Domestic Institutions ................ 34 Increasingly Diverse and Informal Institutions ............................... 38 Building New Institutions ...................................................... 40 Regional Institutions............................................................. 42 CHAPTER THREE Economic Liberalization and Interdependence ............................49 Trade and Financial Integration .................................................51 Capital Markets and Foreign Direct Investment ..............................58 v vi Measuring the Health of the Liberal International Order Response to Crises ................................................................61 Development Assistance ..........................................................62 CHAPTER FOUR International Conflict and Peace .............................................65 Treaties of Pacific Settlement ....................................................67 Territorial Changes Resulting from Conflict ................................. 68 Status of Controls on Weapons of Mass Destruction .........................72 Levels of Conflict .................................................................74 Ability to Constrain Major War .................................................78 CHAPTER FIVE Adherence to Liberal Norms and Values ....................................85 Democracy and Liberal Systems ............................................... 86 Human Rights .....................................................................89 Corruption and the Rule of Law ................................................91 Economic Growth and Democratic Stability ..................................95 CHAPTER SIX Major-Power Signaling and Policies Toward Order ...................... 99 Russia ............................................................................. 101 China ............................................................................. 104 India .............................................................................. 109 Brazil .............................................................................. 113 Conclusion ....................................................................... 116 CHAPTER SEVEN Public Attitudes Toward Elements of the Order ......................... 119 Support for the Order’s Rules and Institutions .............................. 120 Support for Trade ............................................................... 126 Support for Liberal Norms and Values ....................................... 130 Support for Internationalism .................................................. 133 The Rise of Nationalism ........................................................ 136 Summary vii CHAPTER EIGHT Foundations of Order: Geopolitics and Ideology ........................ 147 Geopolitical Trends ............................................................. 150 Ideological Trends ............................................................... 155 Conclusion: Causes for Worry ................................................. 162 CHAPTER NINE Summing Up: The State of the Order ...................................... 165 The Importance of Ideas and Beliefs .......................................... 169 Recognizing Danger Signs ..................................................... 171 Implications for Policy .......................................................... 173 References ....................................................................... 177 Figures 1.1. Snapshot of the Elements and Engines of the Liberal International Order ................................................... 6 1.2. Complexity of Separating the Effects of Order ..................14 2.1. U.N. and WTO Membership Levels and Number of International Organizations, 1945–2017 ........................ 30 2.2. Total U.N. Security Council Vetoes, 1946–2015 ................32 3.1. Exports, Largest Economies, 1960–2015 .........................52 3.2. Trade as a Percentage of GDP, Worldwide, 1960–2016 .........53 3.3. Trade as a Percentage of GDP, Largest Economies, 1960 –2015 ........................................................... 54 3.4. FDI Net Inflows, Worldwide, 1970–2015 ........................58 3.5. FDI Net Inflows as a Percentage of GDP, Worldwide, 1970–2016 ............................................................59 3.6. Net Official Development Assistance, Worldwide, 1960–2014 ............................................................63 4.1. Multilateral Treaties of Pacific Settlement, 1945–2011 ........ 68 4.2. Global Trends in Armed Conflict, 1945–2015 ...................71 4.3. Territorial Claims Initiated per Dyadic Contiguity .............72 4.4. Number of High-Fatality Conflicts Started Each Year, 1946 –2015 ............................................................76