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American Negotiating Behaviour Towards Nuclear Rogue States

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American Negotiating Behaviour Towards Nuclear Rogue States FACULTY OF SOCIAL STUDIES American Negotiating Behaviour Towards Nuclear Rogue States Master's Thesis BC. LUCIE BADALOVÁ Supervisor: Mgr. Martin Chovančík, Ph.D. Department of International Relations and European Studies International Relations Brno 2018/2019 1 AMERICAN NEGOTIATING BEHAVIOUR TOWARDS NUCLEAR ROGUE STATES Bibliographic Record Author: Bc. Lucie Badalová Faculty of Social Studies, Masaryk University Department of International Relations and Euro- pean Studies Title of Thesis: American Negotiating Behaviour Towards Nuc- lear Rogue States Degree Programme: International Relations Supervisor: Mgr. Martin Chovančík, Ph.D. Academic Year: 2018/2019 Number of Pages: 121 Keywords: negotiations, nuclear rogue states, United States of America, negotiating style, Iran, North Korea, Obama, Trump, nuclear diplomacy 1 AMERICAN NEGOTIATING BEHAVIOUR TOWARDS NUCLEAR ROGUE STATES Abstract This Master’s Thesis sets out to identify American negotiating style towards Nuclear Rogue States. First, a literature review isolates five negotiating style typologies and main negotiating tools used by Ameri- can negotiators and consequently a comparative analysis is made between the Obama and Trump administrations’ negotiating behaviour towards Iran and North Korea, which for the purpose of this study repre- sent nuclear rogue states. We find that the general American negotiating behaviour towards nuclear rogue states is strategic hard-positioned re- alist superpower approach, while we also discover that the partisan identity of the administration plays a role as well. Even though there are important points in common, Republican administrations tend to act in a moralistic competing way while Democratic administrations are are more likely to act as a principled negotiator that collaborates with nuclear rogue states. 2 AMERICAN NEGOTIATING BEHAVIOUR TOWARDS NUCLEAR ROGUE STATES Statutory Declaration I hereby declare that I have written the submitted Master's Thesis con- cerning the topic of American Negotiating Behaviour Towards Nuclear Rogue States independently. All the sources used for the pur- pose of finishing this thesis have been adequately referenced and are lis- ted in the Bibliography. In Brno 4 May 2019 ....................................... Bc. Lucie Badalová 1 AMERICAN NEGOTIATING BEHAVIOUR TOWARDS NUCLEAR ROGUE STATES Acknowledgements I would like to thank my supervisor, Mgr. Martin Chovančík, Ph.D., for his much needed input and notes that helped me not to get lost on the way. His commentary was critical but did not lack praise, in short it offered carrots and sticks in just the right ratio. An immense thank you is due to my parents and twin sister who did not doubt me for one second and kept supporting me on the way. There are a few friends I would like to thank: Ivana „Malina“ Balgová and Barbora „Bajza“ Doležalová, who were part of a small diploma thesis support group offering a mix of motivation and nihilist jokes during long writing sessions. I would like to thank Mi- chal Šindelář and Lukáš Lehotský for telling me to „just write it already“. Last but not least I would like to thank Café Atlas and its whole crew who are a second family to me, Tři Ocásci just around the corner with their friendly (writing) space, and Bike Kitchen Brno for just existing and being the most wonderful community of bike enthousiasts, where I always found a friendly face when I needed it most. TABLE OF CONTENTS 5 Table of Contents List of Tables 7 List of Terms and Acronyms 9 1 Introduction 11 2 Theoretical Background 13 2.1 Negotiation and Culture: Case of the United States of America ......................... 14 2.2 Typology of negotiating styles .......................................................................................... 18 2.2.1 From cooperative to competitive negotiations ............................................. 18 2.2.2 Strategic and tactical negotiator .......................................................................... 21 2.2.3 A Psychiatrist, a theologian and a realist ......................................................... 23 2.2.4 Positional bargaining and principled negotiation ....................................... 25 2.2.5 Four-faceted negotiator ........................................................................................... 27 2.3 Most common tools backing American negotiating campaigns ......................... 31 2.3.1 Relationships ................................................................................................................ 32 2.3.2 Incentives and threats .............................................................................................. 36 2.3.3 Other influential strategies and characteristics ........................................... 40 3 Negotiating with Nuclear Rogues 44 3.1 Negotiating with Iran: quick overview.......................................................................... 44 3.2 Iran and Obama: towards a nuclear deal ..................................................................... 46 3.2.1 Relationships ................................................................................................................ 47 3.2.2 Incentives and threats .............................................................................................. 50 3.2.3 Other negotiation campaign tools ....................................................................... 52 3.2.4 Obama and Iran negotiation typology .............................................................. 54 3.3 Iran and the Trump era: no carrots, all sticks ............................................................ 60 3.3.1 Relationships ................................................................................................................ 61 3.3.2 Incentives and threats .............................................................................................. 63 3.3.3 Other negotiation campaign tools ....................................................................... 65 3.3.4 Trump and Iran negotiation typology ............................................................... 65 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS 6 3.4 Negotiating with North Korea: a quick overview ..................................................... 70 3.5 North Korea and Obama: strategic or tactical patience? ....................................... 72 3.5.1 Relationships ................................................................................................................ 72 3.5.2 Incentives and threats .............................................................................................. 74 3.5.3 Other strategies ........................................................................................................... 77 3.5.4 Obama and North Korea negotiation typology .............................................. 78 3.6 North Korea and Trump: maximum pressure or maximum engagement? ... 83 3.6.1 Relationships ................................................................................................................ 84 3.6.2 Incentives and threats .............................................................................................. 86 3.6.3 Other negotiating campaign tools ....................................................................... 88 3.6.4 Trump and North Korea negotiation typology .............................................. 89 4 Conclusion 95 Bibliography 101 Primary sources ................................................................................................................................... 101 Secondary Sources .............................................................................................................................. 103 6 LIST OF TABLES 7 List of Tables Table 1: Collaborating/Competitive negotiations ................................................................... 20 Table 2: Strategic/Tactical negotiations ...................................................................................... 23 Table 3: Psychiatric/Theologian/Realistic negotiator .......................................................... 24 Table 4: Positional bargaining/ Principled negotiators ....................................................... 26 Table 5: Four-faceted negotiator .................................................................................................... 29 Table 6: Obama and Iran-Psychiatrist/theologian/realist .................................................. 55 Table 7: Obama and Iran-Positional bargaining/ Principled negotiators .................... 57 Table 8: Obama and Iran-Cooperative/Competitive negotiations .................................. 58 Table 9: Obama and Iran-Strategic/Tactical negotiations .................................................. 59 Table 10: Obama and Iran-Four-faceted negotiator .............................................................. 60 Table 11: Trump and Iran-Psychiatrist/Theologian/Realistic negotiator ................... 66 Table 12: Trump and Iran-Cooperative/Competitive negotiations ................................ 67 Table 13: Trump and Iran-Positional bargaining/ Principled negotiators .................. 68 Table 14: Trump and Iran-Strategic/Tactical negotiations ................................................ 69 Table 15: Trump and Iran-Four-faceted negotiator ............................................................... 70 Table 16: Obama and the DPRK-Positional bargaining/ Principled negotiators ...... 79 Table 17: Obama and the DPRK-Cooperative/Competitive negotiations
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