PUBLISHED BY THE AMERICAN FOREIGN SERVICE ASSOCIATION JUNE 2021

GREAT POWER COMPETITION

EDUCATION SUPPLEMENT THE PANDEMIC AND FS KIDS

FOREIGN SERVICE June 2021 Volume 98, No. 5

Focus on Feature Great Power Competition Today 43 Whatever Happened to Microfinance? A Cautionary Tale The success or failure of any development program depends on a thorough grasp of the context in which it is being implemented. By Thomas Dichter

Education Supplement

21 34 57 Cyber Diplomacy for Hello, Europe— The Impact of Strategic Competition America Is Back COVID-19 on FS Kids: Fresh thinking and new approaches The trans-Atlantic agenda Tips and Thoughts are needed on diplomacy’s goes beyond undoing Trump. FS children face unique challenges newest frontier. Here is a sober look at the issues in the best of times. How are they from a veteran diplomat. By Emily O. Goldman faring during the pandemic? By Robert E. Hunter 26 By Rebecca Grappo Countering China’s 39 68 Intimidation of Taiwan GPC—Meaningful What’s New with Special Why a firm stand against Beijing’s Concept or Misleading intimidation and coercion of Taiwan is Education Allowances? Construct? The Family Liaison Office talks both timely and important right now. In this thought piece, two Senior with the Office of Child By Robert S. Wang FSOs offer contrasting takes on and Family Programs. the phrase widely used to frame By Charlotte Larsen 31 foreign policy today. By Alexis Ludwig and Engagement with China: Kelly Keiderling 64, 66 Was It a Mistake? Education U.S. expectations may have been unrealistic, but there is much to at a Glance remember and learn from our previous dealings with Beijing. By Robert Griffiths

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2021 5 FOREIGN SERVICE

Perspectives Departments

7 89 10 Letters President’s Views Reflections Let’s Get It Right This Time The Mouse That Roared 13 Talking Points By Eric Rubin By Jonathan B. Rickert 80 Books 9 90 Letter from the Editor Local Lens Finding the Safed Dara, Tajikistan Power Paradigm for Today By Angelique Mahal By Shawn Dorman Marketplace 19 Speaking Out 83 Lodging The Case Against Political 84 Real Estate Ambassadors By Edward L. Peck 87 Classifieds 88 Index to Advertisers

AFSA NEWS THE OFFICIAL RECORD OF THE AMERICAN FOREIGN SERVICE ASSOCIATION

47 AFSA Renovates and Expands 51 AFSA Governing Board Meeting, Memorial Plaques April 21, 2021 48 State VP Voice—Telework: 52 USAID Office of Security Briefing Productive and Family Friendly 53 AF SA Webinar: The Basics of 49 USAID VP Voice—Words of Thanks Long-Term Care and Life Insurance 50 AFSA on the Hill—Seizing the Moment: 54 FSGB 2020 Annual Report: Expand the U.S. Foreign Service Cases Are Up for the Foreign Service 51 AFSA Editorial Board Welcomes Grievance Board Two New Members 55 Boosting AFSA’s Social Media 47 51 AFSA Welcomes Franny Raybaud Presence as Membership Coordinator

On the Cover—Cover Composition by Caryn Smith, Driven By Design LLC. Ship base photo from iStockphoto.com/Nicholas Free. Detail images from iStockphoto.com: waves, jatrax; sky, kvv515kvv; various flags, Martin Holverda, ali çoban, RudyBalasko and Creative-Touch.

6 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL PRESIDENT’S VIEWS

Let’s Get It Right This Time

BY ERIC RUBIN

hen I joined the We are overdue for a serious debate about Foreign Service in America’s role in the world. 1985, near the end of the last phase of the Cold War, the United we failed to make crucial decisions about us to think through what role we as Ameri- WStates had a relatively clear set of goals our country’s future. cans should play in the world, how much and a relatively clear purpose in its for- This failure was exacerbated by an we are willing to pay for that role, and what eign and security policies. understandable desire to reap a “peace the expectations are for other countries Of course, hazy nostalgia for a dividend” after so many decades devot- who want to share the journey with us. bygone era of bipartisan consensus on ing much of our national wealth to the We also need to recognize that U.S. foreign policy is by no means justified. Cold War. global leadership in the 2020s cannot In the early 1980s, we had only recently That in turn led directly to “doing more be a re-creation of our role in the past. put the tragic, divisive 20-year U.S. war with less,” “reinventing government,” We need to ramp up our global engage- in Vietnam and Southeast Asia behind abolishing the U.S. Information Agency ment, this time with the understanding us, and we found ourselves in an accel- and the Arms Control and Disarmament that, as at home, there is no free lunch erating nuclear arms race with the Sovi- Agency, and significantly pulling back in world affairs. ets and a widening global ideological from foreign engagement and commit- AFSA is advocating that Congress division that would soon lead to proxy ments across the globe. provide more resources for the U.S. wars on three continents. This was not a complete pullback, of Foreign Service. We cannot keep doing Our record during that “long twilight course. But in real terms, we began to more with less: We need to do more with struggle” against tyranny that President cut both our outlays and ambitions to more. We also need to temper our reen- John F. Kennedy referred to in his 1961 the point that today spending on diplo- gagement with a heavy dose of humility, inaugural address is not error-free. We macy and foreign assistance is roughly recognizing that our country is going made many mistakes as a country as we half (in real dollars) what it was at the through a painful period of strife and battled Soviet communism and its imita- end of the Cold War—all while we are division and that the world has changed. tors. But there is also much to be proud seeking clear motivating principles and “Because we say so” is no longer a viable of—including the peaceful outcome of that goals for our foreign policy. talking point, if it ever was. struggle, which ended mostly on our terms. In the early 1990s, everything seemed We are overdue for a serious debate I was privileged to be part of the diplo- to be going our way, and it appeared about America’s role in the world and matic team that helped manage the U.S. likely to continue without much effort or what we need to do to achieve our goals. response to the breakup of the USSR and investment on our part. The “Washington A clearer sense of national direction its East European empire. I know from consensus” encouraged us to believe that combined with adequate funding and personal experi- liberal, free-market democracy was the staffing—and the resulting improvement ence that those only game in town—and everyone would in morale—would give the Service an heady days had a now have to follow it. opportunity to end the current decade in a downside: We were In many respects, things have not gone much stronger place. so swept up in the our way. I don’t need to lay out all the rea- As always, I welcome your thoughts euphoria of ending sons why. I do hope, however, that we will and recommendations. Please send them the Cold War that consider the present time as a chance for to us at [email protected]. n

Ambassador Eric Rubin is the president of the American Foreign Service Association.

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2021 7 FOREIGN SERVICE

Editor-in-Chief, Director of Publications Shawn Dorman: [email protected] www.afsa.org Senior Editor Susan Brady Maitra: [email protected]

Managing Editor CONTACTS Kathryn Owens: [email protected] AFSA Headquarters: FINANCE AND ADMINISTRATION Associate Editor (202) 338-4045; Fax (202) 338-6820 Director of Finance and Facilities Cameron Woodworth: [email protected] State Department AFSA Office: Femi Oshobukola: [email protected] (202) 647-8160; Fax (202) 647-0265 Publications Coordinator Manager, HR and Operations USAID AFSA Office: Dmitry Filipoff: [email protected] Cory Nishi: [email protected] (202) 712-1941; Fax (202) 216-3710 Controller Business Development Manager— FCS AFSA Office: Kalpna Srimal: [email protected] Advertising and Circulation (202) 482-9088; Fax (202) 482-9087 Member Accounts Specialist Molly Long: [email protected] Vacant GOVERNING BOARD IT and Infrastructure Coordinator Art Director President Aleksandar “Pav” Pavlovich: Caryn Suko Smith Hon. Eric S. Rubin: [email protected] [email protected] Editorial Board Secretary Alexis Ludwig, Chair Ken Kero-Mentz: [email protected] COMMUNICATIONS Hon. Robert M. Beecroft Treasurer Director of Communications Jane Carpenter-Rock Virginia L. Bennett: [email protected] Ásgeir Sigfússon: [email protected] Daniel Crocker State Vice President Manager of Outreach and Internal Joel Ehrendreich Thomas Yazdgerdi: [email protected] Communications Harry Kopp USAID Vice President Bronwyn Llewellyn Allan Saunders: [email protected] Jason Singer: [email protected] Jess McTigue Online Communications Manager FCS Vice President Joe Tordella Jeff Lau: [email protected] Jay Carreiro: [email protected] Vivian Walker Awards and Scholarships Manager FAS Vice President Hon. Laurence Wohlers Theo Horn: [email protected] Vacant Retiree Vice President MEMBERSHIP AND OUTREACH THE MAGAZINE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS John K. Naland: [email protected] Director, Programs and Member Engagement PROFESSIONALS State Representatives Christine Miele: [email protected] The Foreign Service Journal (ISSN 0146-3543), Joshua C. Archibald 2101 E Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20037-2990 is Manager, Outreach and Maria Hart published monthly, with combined January-February Strategic Communications and July-August issues, by the American Foreign Service Kristin Michelle Roberts Nadja Ruzica: [email protected] Association (AFSA), a private, nonprofit organization. Carson Relitz Rocker Material appearing herein represents the opinions of the Membership Operations Coordinator Jason Snyder writers and does not necessarily represent the views of Ana Lopez: [email protected] the Journal, the Editorial Board or AFSA. Writer queries Tamir Waser Coordinator of Member Recruitment and submissions are invited, preferably by email. The USAID Representative and Benefits Journal is not responsible for unsolicited manuscripts, Trevor Hublin photos or illustrations. Advertising inquiries are invited. Perri Green: [email protected] FCS Alternate Representative All advertising is subject to the publisher’s approval. Retirement Benefits Counselor AFSA reserves the right to reject advertising that is not Mike Calvert Dolores Brown: [email protected] in keeping with its standards and objectives. The appear- FAS Alternate Representative ance of advertisements herein does not imply endorse- Member Events Coordinator Mary Parrish ment of goods or services offered. Opinions expressed in Frances Raybaud: [email protected] advertisements are the views of the advertisers and do USAGM Representative not necessarily represent AFSA views or policy. Journal Steve Herman LABOR MANAGEMENT subscription: AFSA member–$20, included in annual APHIS Representative dues; student–$30; others–$50; Single issue–$4.50. General Counsel Russell Duncan For foreign surface mail, add $18 per year; foreign airmail, Sharon Papp: [email protected] $36 per year. Periodical postage paid at Washington, D.C., Retiree Representatives Deputy General Counsel and at additional mailing offices. Indexed by the Public Mary Daly Raeka Safai: [email protected] Affairs Information Services (PAIS). Philip A. Shull Senior Staff Attorneys Email: [email protected] Zlatana Badrich: [email protected] Phone: (202) 338-4045 STAFF Neera Parikh: [email protected] Fax: (202) 338-8244 Executive Director Labor Management Counselor Web: www.afsa.org/fsj Ásgeir Sigfússon: [email protected] Colleen Fallon-Lenaghan: Executive Assistant to the President © American Foreign Service Association, 2021 [email protected] Vacant Senior Labor Management Advisor PRINTED IN THE U.S.A. Office Coordinator James Yorke: [email protected] Therese Thomas: [email protected] Postmaster: Send address changes to Labor Management Coordinator AFSA, Attn: Address Change Patrick Bradley: [email protected] 2101 E Street NW PROFESSIONAL POLICY ISSUES Senior Grievance Counselor Washington DC 20037-2990 Director of Professional Policy Issues Heather Townsend: [email protected] Julie Nutter: [email protected] USAID Labor Management Advisor

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8 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

Finding the Power Paradigm for Today

BY SHAWN DORMAN

he United States emerged to define the U.S. role within it. Is the In the Feature, “Whatever Happened from the long era of the Cold United States “back at the table” as one to Microfinance? A Cautionary Tale,” War as the undisputed global of many “great” (and less great) powers, Thomas Dichter looks at how what was superpower. It was called or does it seek to be, some say need to once a darling of development programs a “unipolar moment.” The be, at the head of the global table? has done over time. Tsubsequent decade of drift on the seas of This month’s edition explores aspects In the Education Supplement, educa- what many referred to as the “New World of current international dynamics tion consultant Rebecca Grappo con- Order” ended abruptly with the events through the lens of U.S. diplomacy— siders “The Impact of COVID-19 on FS of Sept. 11, 2001. Within weeks of 9/11, how the U.S. is, or should be, addressing Kids,” pointing to the unique challenges U.S. national security strategy and foreign central geopolitical issues. they have faced and offering recom- policy were refocused, launching a new We begin with what is certainly one mendations for parents and for the State era: the “Global War on Terror.” of the most significant arenas for global Department. Fifteen years on, it became appar- competition and conflict today—cyber- Recent changes in the Special Needs ent that nonstate terrorists were not the space. U.S. Cyber Command strategist Education Allowance program are only important actors on the interna- Emily O. Goldman (who has also served spotlighted in Family Liaison Office tional scene. The Obama administra- at the National Security Council and in Education and Youth Director Charlotte tion’s 2015 National Military Strategy State’s Policy Planning Office) offers a Larsen’s interview with the staff of the included a priority to work to defeat particularly timely take on “Cyber Diplo- Office of Child and Family Programs. “potential state adversaries … challeng- macy for Strategic Competition.” She In Speaking Out, Ambassador (ret.) ing international norms.” argues for a more proactive, anticipatory Edward Peck makes “The Case Against The Trump administration made approach to cyber competition. Political Ambassadors.” the return of “great power competition” Robert S. Wang, a retired FSO now with FSO (ret.) Jonathan B. Rickert learns (GPC), acknowledged in 2015, the the Center for Strategic and International about the sensitivities of small coun- centerpiece of its 2017 National Security Studies and Georgetown University, urges tries in his Reflection, “The Mouse That Strategy and 2018 National Defense Strat- an unambiguous U.S. policy of support for Roared.” egy. And by 2019, GPC was dominating Taiwan and its democracy in “Countering In AFSA News, you’ll find photos and the narrative. China’s Intimidation of Taiwan.” news of the expanded and renovated Yet scholars, foreign policy experts and Robert Griffiths, who lived and Memorial Plaques honoring members of diplomats continue to debate whether worked in China for 14 years, asks the the Foreign Service who died in the line GPC is an adequate construct for U.S. for- provocative question: “Engagement with of duty. eign policy and national security strategy. China: Was It a Mistake?” In April, the FSJ Editorial Board Can international relations be reduced to Ambassador (ret.) Robert E. Hunter said goodbye to two wonderful members, “competition”? What is the goal? What is reviews the importance of the trans- Dinah Zeltser-Winant and Christopher the strategy? Atlantic partnership in “Hello, Europe— Teal, who both brought insight, ideas and The discussion America Is Back.” wisdom to our discussions. They will be involves not only how Finally, two Senior FSOs, Alexis Ludwig missed. We were excited to welcome new to characterize the and Ambassador Kelly Keiderling, offer members Jane Carpenter-Rock (State) current international contrasting takes on the concept of “Great and Bronwyn Llewellyn (USAID) in May. environment but how Power Competition” and its utility today. Please keep in touch. Send responses to this issue, and new submissions, to Shawn Dorman is the editor of The Foreign Service Journal. [email protected]. ­n

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2021 9 LETTERS

The Way We Were doing so they’ll get labeled as “x” and resources to language and other training Among many FSOs there is a (half) stymie their careers. That is a difficult programs for those already in the Service. joke by which we note with some wonder question to answer honestly. In my day, the U.S. military pro- how interesting we all were as individu- Wouldn’t it be nice if we could nourish gram for training foreign attachés was a als when we joined the Foreign Service those qualities that made us so interest- good example of how to do things right, X years ago, and how somehow over the ing back when we joined—and those although it did require specialization—in years we have melded into the same type qualities we see now in our incoming and other words, the opposite of nearly every of person. entry-level officers, including, or espe- personnel program in the Foreign Service Keith Mines’ “State’s Influence on cially, officers of color? for the past 50 years. Foreign Policy: Is This Really as Good as Could we believe that by keeping some Maybe we should take a look at that It Gets?” (March FSJ) takes it out of the of that, we could actually be a bolder and system. realm of a joke and poses some serious stronger Foreign Service and ultimately James Schumaker questions about our culture of conformity more useful to foreign policy and to our FSO, retired and lack of boldness (and toughness)— country? San Clemente, California and the extent to which it contributes to Kristin M. Kane our losing opportunities to lead in foreign Chargé d’affaires On Testing Positive policy. U.S. Embassy Lisbon for COVID-19 If we have learned anything over the It was the road trip of unintended con- past handful of years, it is that we should A Note on the Notes sequences. Seven months after arriving in be speaking up more, not less. Our Ser- Some of the “Notes to the New Admin- our new home of Kyiv, as part of the U.S. vice has taken a beating, but we are still istration” (March FSJ) were very interest- diplomatic community, our family of six an incredibly talented group of profes- ing. Others, well... decided to take a break from the monot- sionals. I was particularly startled by a retired ony of pandemic life in our post-Soviet The Mines article should be manda- colleague’s suggestion that in addition to neighborhood. tory reading for all interested in how we passing the written and oral exams, candi- Instead of opting for PCR COVID-19 can seize this window of opportunity— dates should have either a 4/4 in a world tests, international travel, and sunny, with a president, vice president and language or a 3+/4 in a hard language. warm weather, we decided to simply Secretary of State who take us seriously My Foreign Service class consisted of drive west for a change of scenery and and want to build us up. 34 very intelligent and accomplished offi- fresh mountain air. No airports. No flights. Mr. Mines argues that we should not cers. Maybe five of them would have been Masked up. Exploring our new home. just be one member at the table of foreign language-qualified. I suspect the situation Several days into the trip, after an policy decision-making, but the key would be even worse today. afternoon of snow tubing in a park 10 member, leading interagency meetings. My first four overseas hours’ drive from Kyiv, I started having His overall thesis and “six tours required Serbian, congestion and body aches. A few days suggestions we could do to Russian and Dari. How later, I lost my sense of taste—a discovery get out of our own way and many officers come made while I was feeding my 2-year-old secure a seat at the adult into the Service today M&Ms during the last hour of our drive table of policy development” knowing any of those home to Kyiv. also bump up against our languages? Not many, Once home, I took a big spoonful of goals on diversity, equity I suspect. good old American peanut butter and and inclusion, in my view. Already know- gave it a try: no taste. That’s when I knew I I have had bright and ing languages is, of was screwed. And most likely my husband talented young officers of course, very desir- and four children in my wake. color ask me if they can truly able. But the real So there I sat. A positive COVID test in be themselves, try to develop problem, as always, Ukraine. Where health care is not good. their innovative ideas—or if by is devoting adequate Where hospitals were edging to capacity.

10 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL

Where ventilators were almost for us? How many of nonexistent. Staring down the my children would face of a virus that has killed suffer from COVID-19? millions. And how did I feel? Does the embassy have Well, that’s complicated. a medical emergency I was at war with myself. evacuation plan for us How could I let this happen? should we need oxygen? How could I have prevented this from There’s a rabbit hole of scary thoughts you happening? Why us? go down once you test positive, and I was We had made it almost one full year in it. through an international move and life in And then, there’s relief. I was so tired. two countries where the pandemic rages. So tired of dodging this damn virus for And just that day, one day after a posi- the past year. So terrified that one of us tive COVID test, the State Department would bring it home. That my kids would announced it would be vaccinating its not have their masks on properly every diplomats and their families overseas in single time we undertook an outing. That short order. Too little, too late. that one chance encounter with an Uber My feelings ran the gamut. driver or passerby would do us in. What did I feel most acutely? An over- Well, eventually it did. Now we don’t whelming sense of shame. A scarlet letter have to worry anymore. Weight lifted. For will now hang from the door of my home, a while, at least. the one that has been open—outdoor The feelings of finding out you are space only, mind you—to my kids’ friends COVID-positive are many and strong. in our neighborhood bubble through the Some will be shocked by the way I felt; thick and thin of a frigid Eastern Euro- maybe some will find refuge in feeling or pean winter. having felt the same way. Some will try to Now we’re the house that brought preach that I never should have left my the pandemic into the neighborhood, doorstep. Some may have sympathy. a once-safe space to now be avoided. So many will come at me; I could only While we were hardly the first Americans imagine what they’d say. at the U.S. embassy to test positive, the But have you lived this? Is this your community will start to gossip about who reality? Paranoia. Add that to the list of was irresponsible. And this time, the gos- positive COVID-19 emotions. You think sip will be about us. And then there will others care so much more about your be shaming. Because that has been the diagnosis than they actually do. ­n lot of others who have fallen victim to Loren Braunohler this unrelenting virus. FS family member How did I know that would be the Former FSO reaction? Because I’ve been that person. U.S. Embassy Kyiv I have judged. And I know that it’s not right to judge, but deep down, I think it’s human instinct. And now I’m judging myself. Hard. So judge away. I expect it. Submit letters The second wave of emotion? Anxiety. to the editor: As an expat, you do not want to get really [email protected] sick in Ukraine. How bad would this get

12 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL TALKING POINTS

State Names First Inclusion at State,” appeared in the Sep- Chief Diversity Officer tember 2020 FSJ. She recently co-chaired cknowledging that the State the task force that produced the report ADepartment has much work to do “Transforming State,” released by the to develop a more diverse and inclusive Truman Center in March. workforce, Secretary of State Antony She is “a diplomat who knows there Blinken announced on April 12 that are times when you shouldn’t be diplo- Ambassador (ret.) Gina Abercrombie- matic,” Secretary Blinken said. “She won’t Winstanley will serve as the State be afraid to tell me where we’re coming Department’s first chief diversity and up short. And when she does, it’s on us to inclusion officer. listen and act.” “The truth is this problem is as old “I believe that we, the Department as the department itself. It’s systemic,” of State, should and can become in Secretary Blinken said. “It goes deeper the field of inclusion a leader,” Amb. than any one institution or any one Abercrombie-Winstanley said on April U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE OF DEPARTMENT U.S. administration, and it’s perpetuated Ambassador (ret.) Gina Abercrombie- 12. “Indeed, we have the talent to by policies, practices and people to this Winstanley delivers remarks at the become the model for diversity, equity d a y .” State Department on April 12. and inclusion in the workforce.” Amb. Abercrombie-Winstanley will “We are at a particular time in report directly to the Secretary, who leadership, including me—which hasn’t America, and the world is watching us,” said she will “be entrusted with aligning happened in the past.” she added. “As the Secretary said, we and advancing diversity and inclusion Amb. Abercrombie-Winstanley, who all share in the responsibility to ensure efforts across the department. And she’ll joined the Foreign Service in 1985, served that each of us feels that we are not only do it transparently, in a way that holds as ambassador to Malta from 2012 to having the opportunity to excel, but we all of us accountable—including senior 2016. Her article, “Creating a Culture of are expected to reach our full potential.”

Nominations and Appointments Career FSO Michele Jeanne Sison, assistant secretary of State for International Organization Affairs. he United States Senate confirmed the nomination of Career FSO (ret.) Gentry O. Smith, assistant secretary TWendy Sherman as Deputy Secretary of State by a vote of State for Diplomatic Security. of 56-42 on April 13. And on April 21, the Senate confirmed Political appointee Anne A. Witkowsky, assistant secretary Samantha Power as USAID Administrator by a vote of 68-26. of State for Conflict and Stabilization Operations and coordina- President Joe Biden nominated the following people for tor for Reconstruction and Stabilization. more top State Department positions on April 15: Career FSO Todd Robinson, assistant secretary of State for Career FSO Marcia Stephens Bloom Bernicat, Director International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs. General of the Foreign Service and the chair of the Board of Political appointee Monica Medina, assistant secretary the Foreign Service. of State for Oceans and International Environmental and Political appointee Karen Erika Donfried, assistant Scientific Affairs. secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs. Career FSO Daniel Kritenbrink, assistant secretary Career FSO (ret.) Barbara A. Leaf, assistant secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs. of State for Near Eastern Affairs. Career FSO Rena Bitter, assistant secretary of State for Career FSO Mary Catherine Phee, assistant secretary of Consular Affairs. State for African Affairs and member of the Board of Directors On April 15 President Biden also nominated nine career of the African Development Foundation. members of the Senior Foreign Service to serve as ambassadors.

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2021 13 “As public servants representing the Contemporary Quote United States of America, we are most effective when we draw on the diverse We know from history that if and when the Americans retreat and characteristics we each bring to work,” the retrench, they leave behind a vacuum that will be filled by the bad guys. groups wrote in a letter to the Secretary. That’s exactly what we are seeing right now, that’s why with Putin of Russia, While applauding the Biden adminis- President Xi Jinping of China, Kim Jong-un of North Korea, Assad of Syria, tration for its “commitment to strengthen- are flexing their muscles. They have got more room of maneuver. I think the Americans must realize, America is destined to lead; you ing diversity, equity, inclusion and racial cannot escape your fate; a superpower is not going to retire. justice within our workforce,” the affinity groups made specific requests in 12 areas. —Former Prime Minister of Denmark and NATO Secretary General The department should take a more Anders Fogh Rasmussen, keynote speaker at the Meridian Diplomacy Forum, April 16. comprehensive approach to diversity data, they said, publishing a quarterly diversity Human Rights Report Pompeo called a “proliferation of rights,” analysis by bureau, post, Civil Service and Released, Commission arguing that reproductive and LGBT+ Foreign Service, grade, ethnicity/race, dis- Disbanded rights were outside the scope of “founda- ability and gender. nveiling the State Department’s tional” rights. They also recommend that the depart- U2020 Country Reports on Human “One of the core principles of human ment hire a third party to conduct exit Rights Practices on March 30, Secretary of rights is that they are universal,” Secretary interviews of employees who leave the State Antony Blinken said that the trend Blinken said. “All people are entitled to department. lines on human rights continue to move these rights, no matter where they’re born, The groups asked the department in the wrong direction in every region of what they believe, whom they love, or any to “integrate curriculum on managing the world. other characteristic. Human rights are also workplace flexibilities and leave, supervis- He cited the “genocide” against co-equal; there is no hierarchy that makes ing remote teams, and how to practice Muslim Uyghurs in Xinjiang, China; some rights more important than others.” allyship and mentorship into all existing attacks on and imprisonment of oppos- “Past unbalanced statements that Foreign Service Institute courses on lead- ing politicians and journalists in places suggest such a hierarchy, including those ership and management.” like Russia, Uganda and Venezuela; and offered by a recently disbanded State They call on the Bureau of Overseas arbitrary arrests and beatings of protesters Department advisory committee, do Building Operations to ensure all embas- in Belarus, Yemen and Burma. not represent a guiding document for sies are accessible to people with disabili- “All of these alarming trend lines are this administration,” he added. “At my ties and include separate prayer/reflection being worsened by COVID-19, which auto- confirmation hearing, I promised that and lactation rooms. All housing pools cratic governments have used as a pretext the Biden-Harris administration would should have at least one accessible hous- to target their critics and further repress repudiate those unbalanced views. We do ing unit, they say. human rights,” he said. “Plus, COVID-19 so decisively today.” Noting that about 70 countries do has disproportionately impacted the indi- not accredit same-sex spouses or family viduals and groups in our societies who Affinity Groups Spell Out members of LGBT+ diplomats, the groups were already subject to abuse, to discrimi- Diversity Measures say the department should use diplomatic nation, to marginalization.” eventeen employee affinity groups engagement and other tools to make sure Secretary Blinken also used his speech Ssent a white paper to Secretary of these families have the same rights as to announce that he was disbanding State Antony Blinken on March 26 making others. the Commission on Unalienable Rights, specific recommendations on the “most They also urge the department to which was established by former Secretary urgent steps” the department should take make sure that all employee evaluations of State Mike Pompeo. The commission to advance diversity and inclusion. for Foreign Service and Civil Service sought to reframe U.S. interpretation of AFSA has been in close contact with employees are gender-blind and redact human rights to move away from what affinity groups about these issues. the employee’s name.

14 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL Vaccine Diplomacy globally will Americans be safe for the ormer USAID Administrator Gayle long term.” FSmith has been appointed as the He noted that the United States has State Department’s coordinator for provided vaccines to Canada and Mexico global COVID-19 response and health and plans to work with global partners to security. Smith helped lead the American make sure there will be “enough vaccine response to the Ebola crisis under the for everyone, everywhere.” Obama administration. The New York Times reported on April Announcing her appointment on 26 that the Biden administration would April 5, Secretary of State Antony Blinken ship as many as 60 million doses of the

said the Biden administration is look- STATE OF DEPARTMENT U.S. AstraZeneca vaccine to other countries, ing for ways to share more vaccines with Coordinator for Global COVID-19 Response including India—which the Times says other countries. and Health Security Gayle Smith. may be experiencing the worst crisis of The United States faces two chal- any country since the pandemic began. lenges, Smith said. The first is to shorten “We have a duty to other countries to But some critics say that is not “the lifespan of a borderless pandemic get the virus under control here in the enough. that is destroying lives and livelihoods all United States,” Blinken said in announc- U.S. diplomatic staff in India have over the world.” The second, she added, ing the appointment. “But soon, the been hit hard by the latest outbreak there. is ensuring “that we can prevent, detect United States will need to step up our Four locally employed staff have died and respond to those future global health work and rise to the occasion worldwide from COVID-19 in recent months, and threats we know are coming.” because, again, only by stopping COVID more than 100 people in the embassy community have tested positive for the virus, according to multiple media reports.

Site of the Month: Just Security OIG: Pompeo Violated justsecurity.org Ethics Rules ormer Secretary of State Mike Pom- ust Security, founded in 2013 Fpeo and his wife, Susan, directed Jat the Reiss Center on Law and State Department employees to carry out Security of New York University’s tasks of a personal nature for them more School of Law, bills itself as an editori- than 100 times, violating ethics rules, ally independent online forum for the the department’s Office of the Inspector rigorous analysis of law, rights and General said in an April 16 report. U.S. national security policy. It publishes several articles a week on “key topics” Some of the favors included picking such as racial justice, immigration, war authorization and the coronavirus, and up personal items, caring for pets, plan- features “litigation trackers” for both Donald Trump and President Biden. ning events unrelated to the depart- The website strives to promote “principled and pragmatic solutions” to ment’s mission and mailing personal national security problems. Its Board of Editors includes individuals with signifi- Christmas cards. cant government experience, civil society attorneys, academics and other lead- The OIG opened the investigation into ing voices, and its advisory board features four retired U.S. ambassadors. possible ethics violations in 2019 after a Just Security offers two email newsletters. Early Edition, sent at the start of whistleblower complaint. In May 2020, the each business day, features up-to-the-minute news developments at home and Trump administration fired State Depart- abroad. Today on Just Security, sent at the end of the day, features all content ment Inspector General Steve Linick on published in the previous 24 hours. the recommendation of Pompeo, who denied the move was retaliatory.

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2021 15 50 Years Ago

Embassies and Ambassadors raditionally, ambassadorships in many U.S. missions reviewed. This review should Tabroad had been viewed by the party in power as polit- include outstanding employ- ical plums with which to reward its most generous cam- ees of the United States paign contributors. This practice was hard to defend even Information Agency and the in the relatively quiet past when our involvement in world Agency for International Development, which, while affairs was marginal. In a world buffeted by unpredictable closely associated with the State Department, had previ- new political forces, the choice of ambassadors on this ously been bypassed in regard to ambassadorial appoint- basis would be totally irresponsible. I had discussed with ments. We needed to place particular emphasis, I thought, Kennedy the need to strengthen our overseas missions on the younger officers. At that time no one under fifty held and found that he shared my views. Although Kennedy the rank of career minister or career ambassador. (I once naturally left the door open to make a few appointments startled President Kennedy by remarking that under the on personal grounds, he and to some extent even Rusk existing Foreign Service promotional system the highest agreed that recruiting a new breed of envoy should be at grade he could expect to achieve at his age, forty-three, was the top of our agenda; I was given primary responsibility an FSO-3, a little more than halfway up the promotional lad- for recruitment. … der.) I decided that the abilities of all Foreign Service offi- —Excerpted from an article by the same title by former cers qualified for ambassadorial posts should be carefully Ambassador Chester Bowles in the June 1971 FSJ.

The OIG recommended that the Office U.S. Troops Will Withdraw States will continue to pay the salaries of of the Legal Adviser update its guidance from Afghanistan Afghan security forces, support Afghani- to the Office of the Secretary on the use resident Joe Biden announced stan’s counterterrorism abilities and pro- of department funds to pay for gifts to Pon April 14 that the United States vide substantial development assistance. U.S. citizens and the use of department will withdraw remaining U.S. troops in Many in Afghanistan expressed anxi- employees to arrange personal dinners Afghanistan by Sept. 11, two decades ety over the U.S. decision to withdraw. and entertainment. after the United States went to war there “My views are very pessimistic,” said It said the Bureau of Diplomatic to root out al-Qaida. Naheed Farid, an Afghan parliament Security should update its Protection “It’s time to end the forever war,” member who chairs a committee on Handbook to include examples of what Biden said. “I’m now the fourth United women’s issues and met with Secretary to do when agents receive inappropriate States president to preside over Ameri- Blinken. requests for tasks of a personal nature. can troop presence in Afghanistan: two “No matter how you slice it, the The OIG report also recommended Republicans, two Democrats. I will not withdrawal announcement will be hard that the Under Secretary of Manage- pass this responsibility on to a fifth.” for many Afghans to accept. There’s no ment issue guidance on what employees On April 15, Secretary of State Antony way to sugarcoat a policy decision that’s should do when they are asked to do Blinken met with Afghan President Ashraf quite likely to worsen instability in a personal tasks for someone. Ghani and other Afghan leaders in Kabul, country that has been at war for 40 years,” The State Department concurred with and said U.S. support for the wartorn Michael Kugelman, an Afghan scholar at OIG’s three recommendations. country will continue even after Sept. 11. the Wilson Center, told The Washington Pompeo blasted the report in a state- “I wanted to demonstrate with my visit Post. ment. “Every American should fear that the ongoing commitment of the United In testimony before the Senate Intel- their government can traffic in lies and States,” Secretary Blinken told President ligence Committee on April 14, CIA deception in order to smear them and ruin Ghani. “The partnership is changing, but Director William Burns said the with- their reputation because they disagree the partnership itself is enduring.” drawal comes with “significant risk” of a with their political positions,” he said. Secretary Blinken said the United resurgence of terrorism in the region.

16 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL Biden Recognizes Armenian Genocide n April 24 Joe Biden became the first OU.S. president to officially recognize the Turkish massacre of Armenians more than a century ago as genocide, CNN reported. “Each year on this day, we remember the lives of all those who died in the Otto- man-era Armenian genocide and recom- mit ourselves to preventing such an atrocity from ever again occurring,” Biden wrote in a statement commemorating the 106th anniversary of the start of the massacre. “One and a half million Armenians were deported, massacred or marched to their deaths in a campaign of extermination.” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan demanded that Biden reverse his declaration, Reuters reported on April 26, declaring: “The U.S. president has made baseless, unjust and untrue remarks about the sad events that took place in our geography over a century ago.” After Biden’s statement, Turkey sum- moned U.S. Ambassador to Turkey David Satterfield. In Armenia, meanwhile, it was officially welcomed as a step toward “the restoration of truth and historical justice.” In 1981 President Ronald Reagan made a passing reference to the Armenian geno- cide during a statement about the holo- caust, but it was not followed by a formal recognition by the U.S. government. The United States has long seen Turkey as a critical ally in the Middle East. But relations have deteriorated in the past several years.

State Department Wins Disabilities Award or the second straight year, CAREERS F& the disABLED Magazine has rec- ognized the State Department with its Government Employer of the Year Award. The magazine announced the award in its Winter 2020 issue.

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2021 17 In acknowledging Americans Confident in will make other countries view the United the award, the State Biden Foreign Policy States favorably. Nearly two-thirds also Department said majority of Americans are confident say the United States benefits from par- it is “dedicated to Ain President Joe Biden’s handling ticipating in international organizations advancing workforce of foreign policy as he started his term, such as the World Health Organization, diversity” and cited according to a Pew Research Center NATO and the United Nations, and 78 its new Access Center, a 2,400-square- survey released Feb. 24. percent say they want the United States foot space in Columbia Plaza near the Pew found that 60 percent of Ameri- to share a leadership role in the world. State’s SA-1 Building in Washington, D.C., can adults have confidence in Biden on The foreign policy priorities for that opened in 2020. The center offers foreign policy, but this varies sharply by Americans include protecting the jobs employees with disabilities the chance to party. Among Democrats and Demo- of American workers, reducing the test cutting-edge assistive technologies. cratic-leaning independents 88 percent spread of infectious diseases and pro- A February 2020 State Magazine expressed confidence in Biden, com- tecting the United States from terrorist feature about the center notes that nearly pared to 27 percent of Republicans and attacks, Pew found. n 24 percent of full-time American workers those leaning Republican. suffer from a disability. At State, people The Pew survey of nearly 2,600 This edition of Talking Points was with disabilities make up 12.2 percent of Americans also found that 69 percent of compiled by Cameron Woodworth and the workforce. respondents think Biden’s leadership Shawn Dorman.

A Crucial Time for Diplomacy HEARD ON THE HILL administration’s emphasis on nominating This is a crucial time for American diplomacy. knowledgeable and seasoned leaders with From competition with China and the threat of rich foreign policy experience. climate change, to record numbers of displaced —Senator Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), chairman people and backsliding of democracies, the chal- of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, at lenges our nation faces are daunting. But solving an April 28 nominations hearing. them is made even more difficult by our nation’s crumbling infrastructure of diplomacy. First and Rebuild Trust foremost, the State Department and the Foreign It is also critical that this administration Service. Although some of the issues at the State recognize the interdependence between Department predated the Trump administration, JOSH arms control and nuclear modernization, as they were made much worse over the last four explicitly codified in the ratification of the years. In short, I believe we’re facing a generational crisis in new START treaty. Trust must be rebuilt between Congress American diplomacy. That’s why I began to focus on how we and the executive. To rebuild this trust, the Biden adminis- can renew U.S. diplomacy by rebuilding our State Depart- tration must commit to a full modernization of the nuclear ment to meet the challenges of the 21st century. triad and nuclear weapons complex. This is vital to reassure —U.S. Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas), at the our allies who have forgone developing nuclear weapons Meridian Diplomacy Forum, April 16. and instead rely on our nuclear umbrella that we provide for them. Dismantling our capabilities while our adversaries Nominations Hearings build their stockpiles is inherently destabilizing and under- I have spoken often about the pivotal foreign policy chal- mines international security. lenges facing our country and the State Department, and —Senator James Risch (R-Idaho), ranking member of the this hearing will be no different. If confirmed, both of you Senate Foreign Relations Committee, at an will confront serious issues and challenges at a department April 28 nominations hearing. in need of repair and rebuilding. I’m heartened by the Biden

18 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL SPEAKING OUT

The Case Against Political Ambassadors

BY EDWARD L. PECK

he United States is the only To expect a nonprofessional to deal developed nation clinging to a discredited practice of send- with all this is to fail to understand Ting large numbers of novice what “professional” means. ambassadors—chosen for their political donations or because of who rather than what they know. The following criticism if, as ambassadors must, you are going to coordinate the activities of every Ameri- of that concept should not in any way direct others who are doing it. can agency present in the country where be read as ignoring or denigrating the The vast reach of our international they are serving. To do so effectively, they character, achievements or abilities of concerns, amplified by instant communi- must have sufficient experience to super- political ambassadors—that is not the cations, has made ambassadors far more vise and support all the agencies in car- issue. important—not less—than ever before, rying out their responsibilities promptly, Most countries no longer sell military even if many Americans do not fully properly and efficiently. rank, having learned that commanders comprehend what the job entails. This requires a solid grounding in the tend to do better if they know the work. We have significant interests and highly complicated processes by which The same principle obviously applies to objectives in virtually every country, foreign policies are formulated in Wash- ambassadors; yet America ignores this including supporting and protecting ington, as well as detailed knowledge otherwise universal truth. Americans; political and economic and understanding of the mandates and Lack of training and background in developments; human rights and objectives of the many agencies involved the complicated processes of advancing democratization; trade promotion; in implementation. America’s interests abroad is nothing to military and economic assistance; nar- To expect a nonprofessional to deal be ashamed of, but it clearly disqualifies cotics; science and technology; environ- with all this is to fail to understand what anyone for an ambassadorship. Want ads ment; visas, refugees and immigration; “professional” means. Organizations all show why. Except at the entry level, internal stability; regional cooperation spend months training people to serve every job has one essential requirement: and multilateral affairs; intelligence; capably at the bottom of an organization experience. and the major management issues of chart, decades for service at the middle At managerial levels, the fixed staffing, budget and security for U.S. and upper levels. Outsiders cannot pos- prerequisite to qualify is extensive, missions overseas. sibly serve effectively at the top, despite job-related experience. The rationale is By law and by presidential directive, their abilities or desire; an apprentice clear: You must know the work yourself ambassadors are required to direct and ambassador is just that, and most issues will be handled by those who are familiar Edward L. Peck, a Foreign Service officer from 1956 to 1989, served as chief of with the work. mission in Mauritania and Iraq. Other overseas assignments included Sweden, To understand, visualize an absolute Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia and Egypt. On retirement, Ambassador Peck served beginner attempting to run a newspa- as executive secretary of the American Academy of Diplomacy, where for three per, a machine shop, a payroll unit, an years he prepared assessments of the qualifications of noncareer nominees for architectural firm or the organization ambassadorships using the background materials nominees sent to the Senate Foreign Relations where you are employed. It simply will Committee, which shared those materials with the academy. More recently, he has traveled the not work. He or she may have a high level world on cruise ships giving lectures on topics such as “Thinking About Our World” and “Repre- of intelligence and energy and accom- senting a Superpower—What American Ambassadors Do, and Why They Should Be Professionals.” plishments in other fields, but all of it is

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2021 19 irrelevant. At most, the novice can deal Committee has long since abandoned its Speaking Out is the Journal’s opinion competently with only a very small frac- constitutional responsibility. The commit- forum, a place for lively discussion of tion of an ambassador’s total job; others, tee has also abandoned the requirements issues affecting the U.S. Foreign Service and American diplomacy. The views by necessity, have to do all the rest. and restrictions included in the 1980 expressed are those of the author; Career Foreign Service ambassadors Foreign Service Act written by Congress, their publication here does not imply are not necessarily more capable, effec- rubber-stamping all but the most egre- endorsement by the American Foreign Service Association. Responses are tive or intelligent than novices, but they gious candidates, knowing that their party welcome; send them to [email protected]. have one shatteringly compelling and will have its turn. undeniable advantage: experience. They Other nations welcome political Many large organizations hire outsiders know the players, the machinery, the ambassadors. Wrong. No government at the top. Right. But only at the strategic procedures, the cultures, the history. In wants a rank beginner, especially from level—CEO, Secretary of State—never at short, they know the work. a superpower. Governments seldom the operating level (regional representa- Political ambassadors, neither capable publicly criticize a nominee, who is tive, plant manager, ambassador). At that of being engaged in nor necessarily certain to be confirmed; but editorials in level, the person in charge must know the even aware of many of their nominal Australia, Spain, Italy and Switzerland, what, why and how of the tasks, as well as responsibilities, seldom find the obliga- to name a few, have blasted nominations the organizations that carry them out. tions (as they understand them) overly of novices as indicating that we consider There have been some excellent politi- burdensome. As John Kenneth Galbraith, the job, and therefore the relationship, cal ambassadors. Right. The fact that the President John F. Kennedy’s ambassador unimportant. Some political appointees statement must be made, however, to India, said: “There were many, many are famous, or even popular, which has underlines the basic problem: They are days when, if I didn’t do anything that my nothing whatsoever to do with their hardly ever chosen because of anticipated staff could do as well or better, I could fin- qualifications or effectiveness. excellent performance. Financial, political ish my activities in an hour or two.” Walter Political ambassadors can raise issues and social connections are the determin- Mondale, offered an ambassadorship by directly with the president. Maybe, but is ing forces, not experience or qualifica- President Bill Clinton, declined, saying: that good? Few of them are close enough tions, producing a vastly larger number of “I prefer to pay for my own vacations.” to count on getting through, let alone highly marginal performers and far more Despite the irrefutable logic of relying raise a subject the president may not have than a few genuine embarrassments. on professionals, the present spoils system been following. Far more important, it is Amateur ambassadors only need a has supporters. Their ranks inexplicably not in our national interest to have any good embassy staff to do an effective job. include some FSOs, otherwise proud of ambassador bypass the national security Sophistry. The phrase accurately, pain- their careers, who do not appear to under- system; nor should the system stand for it. fully, describes a figurehead, whose most stand the impact on the concept of their Noncareer appointees can provide fresh meaningful contribution is to keep out of profession of suggesting that amateurs perspectives. Right, but that describes the way. In that case, why bother having could perform the top jobs just as well. inexperience as a qualification. There is an ambassador at all? The following arguments in defense no substitute for experience, especially The Cold War is over, but our involve- of political ambassadors are often put when contentious economic, cultural ment with the rest of the world clearly forward: or political differences are involved. A is not. As recent experience has shown, The president can nominate anyone. lack of background in the thorny issues that involvement can suddenly become True, but the Founding Fathers, in a far of relations and the competing interests profound and complex, and in unexpected less complicated world, required the Sen- of sovereign nations can make fresh per- places. There is far too much at stake to ate to consent after considering nomi- spectives irrelevant, or far worse. place the always complicated, significant nees’ qualifications. In theory, the only The same concept applies in civilian and sometimes critical responsibilities of criterion would be national interests; but control of the military. Wrong. Civil- ambassadors in the hands of well-meaning political nominations reflect the impor- ians are never given direct command but unqualified political nominees. tance of money, friendship and patron- of troops, planes or ships, the military America requires and deserves far age, and the Senate Foreign Relations equivalent of embassies. better than that. n

20 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL FOCUS ON GREAT POWER COMPETITION TODAY

Cyber Diplomacy for Strategic Competition

Fresh thinking and new approaches are needed on diplomacy’s newest frontier. BY EMILY O. GOLDMAN

yber diplomacy is the use of diplo- only a few years ago. It is central to the ability to transport com- matic tools to address issues arising modities and information, to generate and store wealth, and to in and through cyberspace. Those coordinate and carry out functions essential to the order and issues span a range of security, operations of modern economies, societies and governments. economic and human rights topics This is why cyberspace—and the broader digital environment— including international cybersecurity has become a major arena for strategic competition. standards, internet access, privacy, For this reason, new thinking on cyber diplomacy is neces- internet freedom, intellectual prop- sary. The diplomatic focus on cooperation among like-minded erty, cybercrime, state-sponsored states to reduce the risk of conflict and to respond collectively cyber conflict and competition, the ethical use of digital tech- after the fact is valuable; but it misses where the strategically Cnologies and trade. consequential cyber action has been occurring for the past Cyberspace now undergirds the prosperity, security and decade—in the competitive arena outside of armed conflict. future of America and its allies in ways impossible to fathom The time has come to up the diplomatic game for cyber compe- tition. But that cannot occur unless and until core assumptions Emily O. Goldman, Ph.D., is a strategist at U.S. Cyber about the evolution of norms and the applicability of a strategy Command and a thought leader on cyber policy. of deterrence to competition in cyberspace are set aside. She served as cyber adviser to the director of policy planning at the Department of State from 2018 to Strategic Rivalry 2019. From 2014 to 2018 she directed the U.S. Cyber Over the past decade, adversaries have been bypassing ter- Command / National Security Agency Combined Action Group, ritorial boundaries by operating in and through cyberspace to reporting to a four-star commander and leading a team that wrote gain strategic advantage against America and its allies without the 2018 U.S. Cyber Command vision, “Achieve and Maintain Cyber- risking armed conflict. Sophisticated campaigns of disinfor- space Superiority.” She has published and lectured widely on strategy, mation and propaganda undermine trust and confidence in cybersecurity, military innovation and organizational change. economic institutions and create doubts about the authority, The views expressed in this article are those of the author and competency and integrity of democratic processes. Exploit- do not reflect official positions of the Department of Defense or any ing cyber vulnerabilities enables theft of wealth, intellectual U.S. government entity. property and personal information. Emplacing malware into

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2021 21 Over the past decade, adversaries new focal points for strategic competition. That competition pits against each other two models of world order (democracy have been bypassing territorial and authoritarianism) and two competing visions of the digital boundaries by operating in space (information freedom and information control). Com- petition to shape the strategic environment and gain relative and through cyberspace to gain advantage is continuous, persistent and dynamic. It is cali- strategic advantage. brated to remain below the level of armed conflict. U.S. cyber diplomacy needs the organizational structure, resources and mindset to ensure the diplomatic tools of national power are fully leveraged for strategic cyber competi- tion. critical infrastructure demonstrates our vulnerabilities and Proactive Approach Needed holds us at-risk for potential future coercive actions. Penetrating There has been much discussion about the State Depart- defense networks distracts and impairs U.S. governmental and ment’s organizational and resource gaps in addressing cyber military operations, requiring time and resources to respond issues. Congress recently reintroduced the Cyber Diplomacy and recover. Act, originally passed in 2019, calling on the State Department The competition is not just about power, however; it is also to establish a cyber bureau led by an ambassador with the rank about values. Cyberspace has emerged as a major arena of and status of an assistant secretary of State. A similar recom- conflict between liberal and illiberal forces across the globe. The mendation was made last year by the bipartisan Cyberspace internet arose in America under mixed public-private gover- Solarium Commission. The global interconnected domain of nance and grew alongside an ideology of personal freedom. cyberspace, according to the commission’s final report, requires For this very reason, autocratic regimes feared that digital-age an integrated, whole-of-nation approach, assisted by the State capabilities would empower civil society and undermine their Department’s focusing on cyber issues in a single bureau. hold on power. The Arab Spring confirmed these fears and dem- Cyber issues will continue to pervade the interests of every onstrated the existential threat posed by information freedom. State Department bureau, of course; but the distinctive tech- Those regimes responded by proliferating tools, ideas and tech- nological, economic, legal and military features of cyberspace nologies to undermine the values and rules-based international demand dedicated expertise and resources over and above the order that democratic countries have sought to establish. efforts currently underway in State offices. A strongly integrated Regimes in China and Russia oppose an open internet and organization can serve as a focal point for cyber issues at the protections against state interference with individual liberties. department and a resource for all the bureaus as particular mat- Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton warned a decade ago ters arise. that they are creating censored networks that erode civil society New form without new substance is not enough, however. and imposing authoritarian rules of information exchange and What stands out most in recent legislation (as well as in the exploitation. Beijing is determined to bring technology ecosys- commission’s recommendations) is an emphasis on approaches tems in line with the Chinese Communist Party’s authoritarian that have not garnered success. Indeed, we should be con- values, shaping mandates and agendas in standards bodies and cerned about a dearth of new thinking on critical issues that the international organizations; employing economic tactics that new cyber bureau will address. undermine competitors to their technology companies; and For example, the State Department has long led U.S. out- redefining cybersecurity as protection from unwelcome news reach to promote an open, interoperable, secure and reliable and views. Meanwhile, both Russia and China exploit open information and communications infrastructure. State has networks and platforms to erode democratic institutions in the worked in international fora for decades to build consensus West. around a framework of responsible state behavior in cyber- These challenges will only grow as emerging digital tech- space, principally through the voluntary, nonbinding norms nologies—sensors, information and communication technolo- recommended by the United Nations Group of Governmental gies, artificial intelligence tools and quantum tools—become Experts (GGE).

22 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL What Every FSO Should Know About Cyber Issues

he State Department and the Foreign Service should watch the developing debates over State has developed and advocated a “cyber deterrence cyberspace policy, strategy and norms with a initiative” to promote collective attribution of cyberattacks and few thoughts in mind: collaboration among a like-minded coalition of governments to T • The cyberspace strategic environment is one impose swift, costly and appropriate consequences for misbe- characterized by strategic competition; its norms are havior by bad actors. Unfortunately, well-intentioned efforts contested. That’s why cyberspace has evolved away to respond to significant incidents and to “establish” norms by outlining broad, voluntary rules (with no enforcement attached from the laudable vision of an open, worldwide internet to them) have stalled. Collective attribution and post facto cost that promotes global civil society. imposition, chiefly through sanctions and indictments, have not • Competition is occurring along ideological fault deterred state-sponsored actors from harming their neighbors lines between liberal democracies and techno-authori- and rivals in and through cyberspace. A renewed commitment tarian regimes that do not share that earlier vision. to the same approaches will not produce different outcomes. • Cyberspace operations have become a standard tool The current environment of strategic competition need of diplomacy and competition, with continuous cam- not alter America’s vision for cyberspace (i.e., a global, open, paigns of nonviolent operations in and through cyber- interoperable arena for discourse and trade that supports dem- space calculated to avoid provoking armed responses. ocratic values and protects privacy). Yet the global competition • What works to deter catastrophic cyberattacks will nevertheless demands we change our approach to achieve that not dissuade adversaries from routinely operating in vision. and through cyberspace for strategic gain. A diplomatic strategy for the future must adopt a competitive • Adversaries are adaptive at exploiting the seams mindset because the vision of a free, open and resilient cyber- in our laws and institutions, and in international law, space now faces a rival (and well-resourced) techno-authoritar- achieving strategic gains without the risks of war. ianism. Dictators are defending their virtual borders by reach- • We should expect states and even nonstates to ing into the societies of their rivals to intimidate opposition and continue experimenting in cyberspace, whether we weaken democratic institutions with diplomacy, development programs, and military and intelligence operations. respond or not. The United States must leverage diplomacy more effectively • We need not be passive; we have demonstrated to compete and set favorable conditions for security in cyber- that we can preclude and disrupt state-sponsored cyber space, transforming what has been a permissive environment intrusions and interference without escalating to armed for our adversaries into one in which the U.S. is actively and conflict. persistently competing on behalf of that vision of a global and • Relying on redlines and responding to incidents after open cyberspace. the fact have not stemmed malicious cyberspace activity, Cyber diplomacy must reinvent itself to gain the initiative. and there is no reason to believe such measures will sud- This requires: (1) an active, rather than a reactive, mindset; (2) a denly dissuade authoritarian sponsors of cyberattacks. focus on setting security conditions rather than changing adver- • In cyberspace the rewards for misbehavior are sary motivations; and (3) on-the-ground efforts with partners cumulative. Thus, it is insufficient to concentrate on to construct norms by persistently contesting adversary cyber stopping individual incidents or deterring catastrophic campaigns of disinformation, sabotage, propaganda, political attacks that produce “significant” consequences. interference and theft. We need to operate at the speed and scale com- mensurate with the cyberspace challenges we face. This Eschew Deterrence, Embrace Competition requires a coordinated and sustained focus of energy and The focus on deterrence and response is deeply ingrained resources—across the U.S. government and with allies in national security thinking. It is telling that the Cyber Diplo- macy Act in its current iteration calls on the State Department and partners—to achieve unity of effort and a whole-of- to “lead United States Government efforts to establish a global nation-plus (with allies) approach. deterrence framework for malicious cyber activity; … to develop —Emily Goldman and execute adversary-specific strategies to influence adver-

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2021 23 The more anticipatory we can costs typically involve sanctions, indictments and naming and shaming or “attribution diplomacy.” Yet response per se does get, the more we can inoculate not deter; only responses that outweigh benefits can change a our systems and thwart adversary motivated actor. Cyberspace is replete with vulnerabilities that adversaries aggression before it compromises can exploit for strategic gain without ever crossing a thresh- U.S., allied and partner networks. old that calls for a self-defense response under international law. Sanctions and indictments for bad behavior are useful, of course, because they constrain an adversary’s freedom of maneuver. Nonetheless, by themselves such responses do not deter. Cyber diplomacy, thus, will be more effective if it aims at changing the conditions for exploitation rather than trying sary decision-making through the imposition of costs and to change adversary motivations. That means focusing less on deterrence strategies; … [and] promote the building of foreign imposing costs and more on working with partners to preclude capacity to protect the global network with the goal of enabling opportunities for exploitation before they occur. like-minded participation in deterrence frameworks.” This is an area where diplomacy and development can com- While applicable to the physical domains of conflict and plement ongoing initiatives in other departments. One example to imposing proportional costs for potential cyberattacks that is the Department of Defense’s Defend Forward strategy with its cause death and destruction, deterrence as a strategic approach operational approach of persistent engagement. DOD recently has not stemmed the onslaught of cyber aggression below the pivoted away from restraint and response to action during day- level of armed conflict. Adversaries continue to design their to-day competition in order to disrupt or halt malicious cyber intrusions and disruptions around the “redlines” that we define activity close to its source. The Cyberspace Solarium Com- only after we have endured earlier incidents. Such redlines mission applauded this step, urging its application across the are notoriously difficult to define in cyberspace, and relying federal government. on them leaves us one step behind and always reacting while A key element of persistent engagement is partnering with opponents set the timing, tempo and terms of competition. other countries to discover adversary activity on their net- This does not mean we should not respond to costly cyber works and neutralize the tools that adversaries use to harm our incursions into our society and economy. Rather, it suggests partners. By going where adversaries are operating, cyber teams that partnership for developing “response options” must be can “hunt forward” to discover intrusions, alert foreign part- pursued in tandem with collective efforts that thwart cyber- ners, help secure their networks and share information with the space aggression before it harms our nations. Being proactive global cybersecurity industry to develop mitigations. does not mean being aggressive. Inaction, however, is unwise The more anticipatory we can get, the more we can inoculate and even provocative, for it cedes the initiative to those who our systems and thwart adversary aggression before it compro- wish us ill. mises U.S., allied and partner networks. The State Department What is destabilizing is restraint in the face of continu- can build partnerships with other countries and help set the ous probes and intrusions that might be individually trivial, conditions for persistent engagement and hunt-forward opera- but cumulatively are shifting the global distribution of power tions. Diplomatic priorities must lean more toward building and influence, creating new norms antithetical to our inter- coalitions that can expose, contest and defend against adversary ests. Cyber diplomacy should mobilize partners not only for cyberspace campaigns. response, but to preclude and contest adversary cyber misbe- havior before it breaches U.S., allied and partner networks. Construct Norms Through Action Congressional leaders have called on the executive branch to Change Conditions, Not Adversary Motivations establish cyber norms—what is acceptable and unacceptable in Entwined with the deterrence mindset is the belief that cyberspace. But policymakers must accept that we are currently we can quash the adversary’s interest in cyber aggression by in a phase of “norm construction” in that realm, and the United imposing costs through consequences for misbehavior. Such States is not in a dominant position to establish norms through

24 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL political discussions alone. Moreover, U.N. GGE reports offer Cyberspace has emerged as a voluntary and nonbinding recommendations. Although the U.S. can try to enforce them unilaterally, they are not subject to U.N. major arena of conflict between sanctions unless nonadherence violates international law. liberal and illiberal forces across Meanwhile, multilateral bargaining at the United Nations to establish norms has stalled, and arguably backtracked, with the globe. China working to promote “cyber sovereignty” as the organizing principle of cyber governance and Russia organizing an alterna- tive norms-establishing forum to the U.N. GGE process, the so-called U.N. Open-Ended Working Group. Why this is happening is not difficult to discern. Much of the cyberspace diplomacy and operations that expose and contest behavior that we consider unacceptable is producing benefits behavior inconsistent with such norms. for its sponsors that far outweigh the costs they incur. Norms Forging a coalition of partners for agile collaboration and emerge through practice, and they mature through political continuous pressure against authoritarian adversaries has and legal discourse. To achieve a convergence of expectations the best chance of producing a convergence of expectations around the behaviors we deem advantageous, we must engage on acceptable behavior. Only then can we define a framework in this norm-construction competition. This requires explicitly of responsible state behavior and consequences for irrespon- linking the promotion of norms of responsible behavior with sible acts. n

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2021 25 FOCUS ON GREAT POWER COMPETITION TODAY

Countering China’s Intimidation of Taiwan

Why a firm stand against Beijing’s intimidation and coercion of Taiwan is both timely and important right now. BY ROBERT S. WANG

n the first weekend following Beijing has markedly stepped up military pressure on Taipei. President Joe Biden’s inaugura- According to Taiwan, Beijing sent warplanes into the same area tion, Taiwan’s Defense Ministry on at least 100 days in 2020. In January 2021, Chinese military reported back-to-back incursions planes flew into that zone 26 out of the first 30 days. Previously, by two large fleets of Chinese such flights were usually conducted by one to three reconnais- military aircraft into Taiwan’s self- sance or anti-submarine warfare aircraft. According to Bernard declared southwestern air defense Cole, a professor at the National War College, the latest incur- identification zone. On Jan. 23, sions “demonstrate the People’s Liberation Army Air Force’s the fleet comprised eight nuclear ability to put together a multiplane strike, which we would weapon–capable Chinese H-6K bomber planes, four J-16 fighter likely see in the event of a hot war against Taiwan.” Additionally, Ojets and one anti-submarine aircraft. This was followed the next Taiwan’s defense minister informed its legislature last October day by another fleet of 12 fighters, two anti-submarine aircraft that nearly 50 Chinese aircraft had crossed the median line of and a reconnaissance plane. Beijing repeated these exercises the Taiwan Strait in the first nine months of 2020. several times in the subsequent months. Analysts have concluded that the latest intrusions are specif- Since the election of Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen in 2016, ically intended to pose a direct challenge to the Biden adminis- tration regarding its future policy toward Taiwan and the region. Robert S. Wang, a retired Foreign Service officer, is On Jan. 23, for example, a spokesperson for China’s Taiwan a senior associate with the Center for Strategic and Affairs Office asserted that these exercises are designed as warn- International Studies and an adjunct professor at ings to “separatists” in Taiwan and “external forces” who intend the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service. to interfere in China’s affairs. Following the exercises, a Chinese During a 32-year career with the Department of State, Foreign Ministry spokesman told reporters: “The United States Mr. Wang served overseas in Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Singapore, frequently sends aircraft and vessels into the South China Sea to Taiwan and Beijing, where he was deputy chief of mission from 2011 flex its muscles. This is not conducive to peace and stability in to 2013. His last Foreign Service assignment before retiring in 2016 the region.” was as the U.S. senior official for Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation In response to the exercises, the State Department issued a (2013-2015). He was a senior adviser at Covington & Burling LLP press release: “The United States notes with concern the pattern (2016-2018) and a visiting fellow with the Freeman Chair in China of ongoing PRC attempts to intimidate its neighbors, including Studies at CSIS (2009-2010). Taiwan.” State added: “The United States will continue to sup-

26 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL port a peaceful resolution of cross-Strait issues, consistent with Does the United States view the wishes and best interests of the people on Taiwan” and “to assist Taiwan in maintaining a sufficient self-defense capabil- the step-up of Chinese military ity.” It concluded: “Our commitment to Taiwan is rock-solid and exercises against Taiwan as contributes to the maintenance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and within the region.” justifiable or as a “form of coercion”? Just How Solid Is the Commitment? Despite such official statements, Richard Haass and David Sacks at the Council on Foreign Relations note in a Septem- ber 2020 Foreign Affairs article that the U.S. government has maintained a policy of “strategic ambiguity” over the past four decades that “resisted answering the question of whether step-up of Chinese military exercises against Taiwan as justifi- the United States would come to Taiwan’s defense if China able or as a “form of coercion”? If the former, would the United mounted an armed attack.” They note that the Taiwan Rela- States intervene to help defend Taiwan? If the latter, does the tions Act only calls on the United States to “provide Taiwan U.S. government currently have the political will or capacity to arms of a defensive character” and “to maintain the capacity help defend Taiwan? In a recent survey by the Chicago Council of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms on Global Affairs, while a majority of American opinion leaders of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or favored the use of U.S. troops to support Taiwan in a Chinese economic system, of the people on Taiwan.” invasion, only about 40 percent of the general public favored While acknowledging that this policy has maintained cross- such action. It thus appears that there is still significant uncer- strait stability thus far, Haass and Sacks argue that ambiguity is tainty among Americans as to whether the United States should “unlikely to deter an increasingly assertive China with growing or will actually defend Taiwan against an increasingly powerful military capabilities.” They recommend that the U.S. govern- Chinese military. ment “introduce a policy of strategic clarity: one that makes explicit that the United States would respond to any Chinese A Moment for Clarity use of force against Taiwan” while clearly stating its adherence President Biden has underscored repeatedly that he to the one-China policy. They warn that the failure of the United considers the promotion of democracy and human rights States to respond to such a Chinese use of force would under- values abroad as one of his highest foreign policy priorities. mine U.S. credibility among its allies, such as Japan and South He indicated that in his first year in office, the United States Korea, across the region. will host a global Summit for Democracy to, as he put it in Following publication of this article, other foreign policy an article in the March/April 2020 Foreign Affairs, “renew the analysts raised alarms about the proposed change in the U.S. spirit and shared purpose of the nations of the free world” policy of “strategic ambiguity.” Some contend that a change was and “bring together the world’s democracies to strengthen unnecessary because China, despite its provocative military our democratic institutions, honestly confront nations that are exercises, is still unlikely to attack Taiwan. Others argue that backsliding, and forge a common agenda to fight corruption, Beijing’s increasing pressure on Taiwan could be seen as a reac- defend against authoritarianism and advance human rights.” tion to provocative U.S. and Taiwanese policies. Some are con- With reference to Taiwan, Biden wrote in an Oct. 22, 2020, cerned that such a commitment would demand a much larger opinion piece in the World Journal (a Taiwanese Chinese- defense budget than the United States could afford. Above all, language newspaper published in America) that the United these analysts express concerns that a policy of “strategic clar- States will “stand with friends and allies to advance our ity” with respect to Taiwan could actually provoke Beijing into shared prosperity, security and values in the Asia-Pacific launching an attack on Taiwan. region. That includes deepening our ties with Taiwan, a Putting aside the merits of these arguments for the moment, leading democracy, major economy, technology power- this open debate has highlighted questions about the credibility house—and a shining example of how an open society of U.S. commitments to Taipei. Does the United States view the can effectively contain COVID-19.”

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2021 27 President Biden has made clear and Jim Steinberg, traveled to Taiwan and met with President Tsai Ing-wen to deliver a personal message from President that he sees China as currently Biden reaffirming U.S. support for Taiwan on the 42nd anniver- posing the top foreign policy sary of the Taiwan Relations Act. The recent deployment of U.S. aircraft carrier groups to the region and transits through the challenge for this administration. Taiwan Strait have further underscored U.S. commitment. With or without an explicit security guarantee, it is thus essential that the United States continue to affirm and demon- strate U.S. political will and capacity to counter Chinese military pressure against Taiwan. Congress should pass the Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act to demonstrate bipartisan support and President Biden has also made clear that he sees China provide authorization to use military force, if necessary. The as currently posing the top foreign policy challenge for this United States also needs to move quickly to expand bilateral administration. In his first media interview in February, Biden trade, social and cultural ties (e.g., inviting Taiwan to the Sum- said that, while needing to avoid conflict, he expected “extreme mit for Democracy) and negotiating a trade agreement, to competition” with China. According to a White House readout strengthen the relationship. This will help build more support of his phone conversation with China’s President Xi Jinping, among Americans for the need to defend Taiwan and under- “President Biden underscored his fundamental concerns about score to Taiwan and our allies, as well as such strategic competi- Beijing’s coercive and unfair economic practices, crackdown in tors as China and Russia, that the United States is committed Hong Kong, human rights abuses in Xinjiang and increasingly to the principles of democracy and human rights, and intends assertive actions in the region, including toward Taiwan.” to impose costs and undertake risks to defend democracies In his confirmation hearing, Secretary of State Antony and advance the values of the rules-based liberal international Blinken labeled China’s internment of an estimated 1 million order. minority Uyghurs as “genocide,” and said in a subsequent inter- view that the United States will be “building stronger alliances, Countering Beijing’s Strategy of Intimidation standing up for our values, investing in our people, and making According to China’s Xinhua news service, Xi Jinping warned sure our military is properly postured.” Similarly, National Biden in their call that “in matters concerning Chinese sover- Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said in an event hosted by the U.S. eignty and territorial integrity,” referring to Xinjiang, Hong Kong Institute of Peace that the United States will “speak with clarity and Taiwan, “the U.S. side should respect China’s core interests and consistency in regard to China and other foreign policy and act with caution.” Thus, the Biden administration should issues.” Specifically, he said this includes “being prepared to act expect Beijing to escalate military pressures to continue to test as well as to impose costs for what China is doing in Xinjiang, U.S. resolve. As it has done in the cases of the East and South what it’s doing in Hong Kong, and for the bellicosity and threats China Seas and in Hong Kong, Beijing will justify these actions that it is projecting towards Taiwan.” as a response to foreign interference against China’s core inter- Given the above, it seems this is a critical moment as well as ests. an opportunity for President Biden to underscore his foreign Nonetheless, I believe Chinese leaders are fully aware of policy priorities by increasing the clarity of U.S. commitment the tremendous costs that would result from an armed conflict not only to defend Taiwan but, more pointedly, to defend its involving Taiwan. This situation is entirely different from those democracy against China’s blatant resort to military and other in Xinjiang or Hong Kong, where Beijing has full control, and forms of coercion “to determine the future of Taiwan by other the United States has little to no leverage. To begin with, Beijing than peaceful means.” In their recent public statements, Presi- would be facing a modern and well-armed Taiwan military in dent Biden and his team have called out Beijing for its coercive entrenched defensive positions that would exact a heavy toll on actions, emphasizing that any cross-strait agreement must be an invading force, even if it could not ultimately win the fight. “consistent with the wishes and best interests of the people on A full-scale armed conflict would destroy vital cross-strait eco- Taiwan.” In mid-April, former Senator Chris Dodd, accompa- nomic ties and disrupt critical global supply chains, which will nied by former Deputy Secretaries of State Richard Armitage in turn have a debilitating impact on the large but still develop-

28 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL ing Chinese economy that is heavily dependent on international There are risks to maintaining the trade and investments. It would also be impossible to avoid collateral damage that strategy of ambiguity as Chinese would endanger the lives and interests of a sizable foreign pop- military power builds up in the ulation in Taiwan, thus forcing a widespread global response. Under these circumstances, it would be difficult to imagine the coming years. U.S. military in the region remaining uninvolved. While some in China may initially support such an invasion, there would almost certainly be substantial domestic opposition, including from those who have visited or have family and business ties to Taiwan, questioning the necessity of the conflict, especially as Chinese casualties and economic repercussions mount. Hence, freedom to determine their own political future in cross-strait an armed invasion of Taiwan would be Beijing’s very last resort negotiations without fear of Chinese intimidation. The United because its tremendous costs would far outweigh any possible States should make clear to all that it is committed to ensur- benefit China could derive even from a “successful” invasion. ing that, as mandated in the TRA, “the future of Taiwan will Thus, as I see it, Beijing’s increasing provocations do not be determined by peaceful means” and not through the use of necessarily suggest that it is currently preparing for an armed force or coercion. conflict. Rather, these actions are designed to intimidate and to create and fuel doubts about U.S. commitments to Taiwan and, Strategic Ambiguity and Its Risks increasingly, to isolate and undermine the morale of the people There are risks to maintaining the strategy of ambiguity as of Taiwan. Beijing’s ultimate goal, in the tradition of China’s war Chinese military power builds up in the coming years. First, strategist Sun Tzu’s The Art of War, is to use military intimida- this strategy will not reduce Beijing’s increasing assertiveness tion to divide and coerce the people of Taiwan into accepting toward Taiwan and the region. From my own involvement in Beijing’s formula for political reunification, which, as in the case many years of negotiations with Chinese officials, it is my view of Hong Kong, it can then discard after assuming greater con- that Beijing will see a U.S. effort to hang on to this strategy trol. In short, Beijing is seeking to win a war through intimida- simply as a sign of weakness and fear, not clever diplomacy, tion and without the actual use of force. and will seek to exploit this weakness by increasing the pressure To counter this strategy, the United States must stand firm and pushing for concessions from both Taiwan and the United and counter China’s intimidation tactics. It should demonstrate States. I believe we are seeing this play out today. In time, the its commitment to help defend Taiwan and its democracy, and lack of a clear U.S. commitment will allow Beijing to succeed deepen the bilateral relationship in ways that bind our inter- in sowing doubts about U.S. credibility—not only among the ests and values. In confronting China, the United States should people of Taiwan, but in the region and the world as a whole. be prepared to accept greater risks and be prepared to defend Second, as the people of Taiwan sense a relatively weak- Taiwan against a Chinese invasion, if necessary. The objective ened U.S. commitment, many more will succumb to Chinese should be to convince Beijing that the use of military intimida- pressures and seek a cross-strait compromise that does not tion and coercion against Taiwan will only backfire, making reflect their own values and interests, but their fears. For oth- China’s goal of political reunification even more difficult, if not ers, especially in the pro-independence camp, this could result impossible. At the same time, the United States should also in greater frustration and even desperation that could lead to make clear that it welcomes dialogue and a peaceful resolution an open push for Taiwan independence to force the hands of of cross-strait ties that fully respects the wishes and interests of both Beijing and the United States. This would create a serious the people of Taiwan. dilemma for the United States either to defend Taiwan or simply At the same time, the United States must make it very clear accept a Beijing-imposed reunification solution along the lines to the people of Taiwan that we “have your backs”; and we need of Hong Kong’s “one country, two systems.” The former could to work with Taiwan to bolster our joint defense capability. The lead to an armed conflict, while the latter would essentially United States needs to assure the people of Taiwan that our destroy Taiwan’s democracy and U.S. international credibility commitment is not transactional, and that we will defend their for the foreseeable future.

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2021 29 Beijing will continue to escalate must “speak with clarity and consistency in regard to China its military pressure as it senses and other foreign policy issues.” uncertainty and weakness on the Can the United States Deliver? Addressing the Munich Security Conference in mid-Febru- part of the United States. ary, President Biden announced to the world that “America is back.” On China, he said: “We must prepare together for long- term strategic competition with China. How the United States, Europe and Asia work together to secure the peace and defend our shared values and advance our prosperity across the Pacific will be among the most consequential efforts we undertake. Competition with China is going to be stiff. That’s what I expect, Finally, a strategy of ambiguity raises the probability of mis- and that’s what I welcome, because I believe in the global system calculation because Beijing will continue to escalate its military Europe and the United States, together with our allies in the pressure as it senses uncertainty and weakness on the part of Indo-Pacific, worked so hard to build over the last 70 years.” the United States. This could create situations in which the two It seems to me that how the United States confronts Beijing’s militaries misinterpret each other’s intentions in particular increasing military threats and coercion against Taiwan and its cases that result in an accidental military conflict. To avoid this, democracy will be the key test as to whether the United States as National Security Adviser Sullivan has said, the United States can deliver on its global commitment. n

30 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL FOCUS ON GREAT POWER COMPETITION TODAY

Engagement with China Was It a Mistake?

U.S. expectations may have been unrealistic, but there is much to remember and learn from our previous dealings with Beijing. BY ROBERT GRIFFITHS

he world cannot be safe The Path Taken until China changes,” Secre- There was a time when if a foreigner wanted to learn about tary of State Mike Pompeo China, he or she had to go to Taiwan. I was part of that genera- said in a July 2020 talk at the tion who, in the 1960s and 1970s, learned Chinese from those Richard Nixon Library and who fled the mainland after defeat in the civil war in 1949. “ Museum, quoting the 37th These were people who were proud of their Chinese roots, eager president. In the 53 years to preserve Chinese culture, and with whom I spent many hours since Nixon wrote those trying to master Chinese calligraphy with long brush and ink words, China has changed stone. Life in Taiwan for young foreigners was invigorating and in immeasurable ways, but not in all the ways the West had filled with as much fun as you can get riding an underpowered hoped. Indeed,T Pompeo said that the engagement policy the motorcycle with a date on the back. U.S. has pursued for decades has been a failure. When mainland China began to open up in the 1980s, it was Was the United States wrong to have engaged China? Could very exciting. Foreigners could, with a little effort, visit all the things have turned out differently? places we had read about in the history books. But even greater In the decades following Nixon’s breakthrough in 1972, than the thrill of discovery was the thrill of anticipation. China U.S. policy toward China was rooted in optimism and enjoyed was changing. What would it become? What would life be like bipartisan support. We knew that the payoffs for a successful for our Chinese friends? relationship would be enormous for both sides, and many signs In the intervening years, from the 1980s to today, incredible were encouraging. But history sometimes turns on bad luck, as things have happened. Hundreds of millions of people have well as policy intentions and misassessments. been lifted out of poverty. China has become the world’s largest We were not wrong to have given the relationship a good trading nation. World-class skyscrapers, high-speed trains and shot, and the story has not ended. scores of vast new college campuses demonstrate that when given a chance, the Chinese want the best. The collapse of com- Robert Griffiths teaches political science at Brigham munism as an economic and social system gave rise to all sorts Young University. A retired U.S. Foreign Service of ways to find greater meaning and opportunity in life. Vast officer, he lived and worked for 14 years in China, riches came for some; a materially better-off life for nearly all. including as consul general in Shanghai from 2011 Interaction with the outside world increased profoundly, and to 2014. we could imagine the day when the Chinese would enjoy all the

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2021 31 In the late 1990s, Chinese societies. It seemed that this change was facilitated by economic growth, in particular a rise in per capita GDP. It made sense that Premier Zhu Rongji was boldly once people were well enough off economically, they would dismantling the centrally planned seek a greater say in how they were governed. Again, the U.S. government was not directly involved in these Chinese economy. dramatic political transformations; but the United States did promote the development of civil society, and the example of U.S. political openness and stability was a shining light. It was a good bet that China, also rooted in Confucian values, would fol- low a similar path once there was a sufficient level of economic prosperity. things that we felt make life meaningful. As Americans, we were 3. WTO and the Belgrade Bombing. In the late 1990s, Chi- eager to share; and the Chinese seemed eager to learn. It was nese Premier Zhu Rongji was boldly dismantling the centrally exhilarating to be part of it all. planned Chinese economy and breaking the “iron rice bowl”— Yet today we find ourselves in very different circumstances. the socialist system that was famously egalitarian but kept the There is a general bipartisan consensus in Washington, D.C., nation mired in poverty. that China’s unbalanced trade, suppression of political free- In its place, private enterprise would drive China to decades doms and human rights, and advocacy of authoritarian govern- of phenomenal economic growth, fueled in part by foreign ment requires a new and less-engaging approach. investment; and U.S. companies with the best business prac- tices were particularly sought after. Some Things to Remember Following years of intense international negotiations, during Consider some of the things that occurred along the way. which no one was more tough on China than the United States, 1. Tiananmen Square. Dial back to 1989. Thousands of the PRC got the green light to become a member of the World students and everyday workers in Beijing, including from many Trade Organization in December 2001. As a WTO member, government offices, were peacefully protesting. They sought an China agreed to subject itself to global trade rules and allow end to corruption and reforms in governance. While there was other nations to sue it for unfair trade practices. Since that time, no U.S. government involvement in the protest itself, America’s China has sued and been sued many times and has won and influence was evident in the construction of the protesters’ lost cases. symbolic “Goddess of Democracy,” an obvious takeoff on the What a tragedy of history that in the buildup to this remark- Statue of Liberty. able engagement, U.S. planes participating in the war in Bosnia That influence was possible because in 1979 the United mistakenly bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. To a States and China had re-established diplomatic relations, and man, the top Chinese leadership believed that the bombing communication between the two societies was rapidly expand- on May 7, 1999, had to have been intentional. And ever after it ing. The head of the Communist Party, Zhao Ziyang, was sym- would prove difficult for American interests and values to gain pathetic to the protesters and arranged for a meeting between traction in Chinese leadership deliberations. their leaders and the full top national leadership. That meeting 4. An Explosion of Communication and Exchange. As could have gone well. The protest could have ended peacefully, technology, especially the internet, developed rapidly in the and China could have embarked on a path that involved some 2000s, China was not far behind the United States in the growth political, as well as economic, liberalization. of social media and an explosion of information exchange. This The meeting, however, did not go well. And the rest—the was accelerated by the exposure of hundreds of thousands of tragic killing in Beijing on the night of June 3—is history. Chinese students studying abroad, nowhere more than in the 2. Examples in the Neighborhood. There was more his- U.S., to political, social and cultural ideas they never would have tory going on among China’s neighbors. In the 1980s and encountered back home. 1990s, two bastions of Confucian culture—South Korea and International journalists began reporting from China in Taiwan—transformed themselves from authoritarian regimes droves as Chinese journalists spread around the world and that brooked no political opposition into vibrant democratic began educating their compatriots on what was going on

32 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL outside China. International nongovernmental organizations in the 21st century. Forced assimilation of the Uyghurs became (NGOs) began setting up operations in China, even as home- so brutal that the United States judged it violated the U.N. geno- grown NGOs were promoting environmental, charitable and cide convention. Toleration for political differences in Hong social causes. Kong was ended, casting a deep chill on hopes for peaceful Religions, including Christian churches in places like Zhe- reunification with a willing Taiwan. And military capabilities jiang province, were adding millions of converts. There was an that could have been promoted as reasonable protection for explosion of academic exchanges, with thousands of American Chinese assets are now used to intimidate in the South China and other Western scholars presenting at conferences in China Sea and elsewhere. on business, political, and technical and scientific topics. Eventually, all this proved too uncontrollable for Beijing’s Disappointment of Our Own Making leaders; but at the time it seemed that such activities were toler- If only things had turned out differently! Yet our disappoint- ated, even welcomed, for China’s development. ment is of our own making. With now-clear hindsight, we can 5. Acknowledging International Norms. Beginning some see that the idea that the West was going to adopt China into its 40 years ago, China began a tentative, though never warm, ranks was fanciful. embrace of international legal and political norms. The Chinese China’s rise is China’s story, not ours. You do not have to be put human rights protections into their constitution and profes- in China very long before you learn how proud the Chinese are sionalized their legal system. They signed existing international of their long history and deep culture. Even if the “5,000 years” conventions. Prompted by business concerns, they tightened up of history they often claim is hard to document, what is well contract law and established legal studies programs based on documented is certainly impressive. What if the Roman Empire Western models. At the behest of the United States, in particular, and its control of most of Europe had continued until today? they set up specialized courts to deal with cases of intellectual What if Latin had more native speakers than any other lan- property theft. guage, and Roman poetry and philosophy had been written and The Chinese also began to hold elections broadly at the vil- matured for more than 2,000 years? lage level and began “experiments” with wider district elections. From the Chinese perspective, that would be comparable They began holding public hearings on local issues and, before to what China and its culture are today. That such a nation was implementing new regulations, put proposed policies out for humiliated for a hundred years before 1949—forced to legal- public comment. No one commented more than U.S. entities, ize opium for the profits of foreigners, allow foreign militaries and their comments often changed the policies substantially. almost free rein within its borders and be “carved up like a Reviving a revered historical practice, ordinary citizens were melon,” in the words of Chinese historians, by Western colonial allowed to petition local, provincial and national leaders for powers—leaves the Chinese with a powerful imperative today: redress of grievances. Party membership was greatly expanded Regain China’s place in the world and the respect it is due. to include former “enemies of the state,” such as business own- Our expectations for China’s future were wrong and hubris- ers and landlords. And the president of the country was limited tic, but Beijing’s current expectations for its own future may to two five-year terms, leading in 2002 to the first peaceful and turn out to be wrong, too. History is like that; there is nothing willing transfer of power in China’s history when Jiang Zemin inevitable about it. gave up control of the country to Hu Jintao. Was our engagement of China during the past 50 years a mis- During Hu’s terms in office, his Premier Wen Jiabao publicly take? No. Had we not embraced the Chinese nation, anticipated looked forward to the day when China would enjoy greater the best and welcomed its people to our land and our values, democracy. Another peaceful transfer of power took place in but instead obstructed China’s development despite its great 2012 when Hu turned over the reins to Xi Jinping. Xi has since promise in so many areas, history would have judged us very pulled back many of these political and legal reforms, promot- harshly. ing instead greater personal and Chinese Communist Party con- Still, it is a different world now. As the Biden administration trol; but he was not expected to, and nothing forced him to do it. contemplates how we might best deal with a newly powerful Indeed, in a move no one foresaw, Xi has set himself up as and emboldened China, we should remember the ways ruler for life, apparently turning back to imperial China—where in which our engagement has united us, not only what now there are only loyalists and traitors—as a guide for governance divides us. n

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2021 33 FOCUS ON GREAT POWER COMPETITION TODAY

Hello, Europe — America Is Back

The trans-Atlantic agenda goes beyond undoing Trump. Here is a sober look at the issues from a veteran diplomat. BY ROBERT E. HUNTER

oe Biden’s election as U.S. president was would honor the core U.S. commitment to European allies: the greeted with great relief by almost all Washington Treaty’s Article 5, which declares that an attack on Europeans. His first major foreign policy one signatory will be considered an attack on all. Ironically, if speech, at February’s virtual Munich Secu- any ally had been attacked, it was virtually certain that Trump rity Conference, added to European confi- would have responded militarily, as being in America’s irreduc- dence as he declared, “America is back.” ible security interests; uncertainty, however, is the enemy of There is much to be coming “back” both confidence and deterrence. from. Allied concerns about America Further, Trump had decided to reduce U.S. military forces in under President Donald Trump stemmed Germany. This was not particularly important in terms of com- only in part from his blustering style and retreat from American bat power (given U.S. and other NATO allies’ military deploy- Jcommitments abroad, including the World Health Organiza- ments in Central Europe), but symbolically it was immense. tion, the Paris Climate Accord, the 1987 Intermediate-Range Biden immediately put that decision on hold. Nuclear Forces Treaty and work on the Trans-Atlantic Trade Yet “America is back” only takes the United States, the alli- and Investment Partnership. ance and U.S.-European relations so far. In his Munich speech, At least as important, if not more so, “America is back” is Biden said: “We are not looking backward; we are looking welcomed in Europe as repudiating Trump’s refusal to say he forward, together. It comes down to this: The trans-Atlantic alliance is a strong foundation—the strong foundation—on Robert E. Hunter served as U.S. ambassador to which our collective security and our shared prosperity are NATO (1993-1998), director of West European and built. The partnership between Europe and the United States, then Middle East affairs at the National Security in my view, is and must remain the cornerstone of all that we Council (1977-1981) and foreign policy adviser to hope to accomplish in the 21st century, just as we did in the Senator Edward Kennedy (1973-1977), among 20th century.” many other positions in trans-Atlantic relations. Ambassador An excellent beginning, but only that. There is an extensive Hunter is currently a member of the Ambassador Partnership and trans-Atlantic agenda; meeting it is not just a matter of undoing the Executive Committee of the American Academy of Diplomacy. Trump. The world has moved on.

34 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL The U.S. “Big Three” “Anti-Russia” will not suffice as Particularly important for Biden administration relations with Europe are the three big areas of U.S. concern about glue for trans-Atlantic relations, challenges to its security and other interests: Russia, Iran and even with understanding of China. Russia. NATO will hold a summit on June 14 in Brussels. U.S. preeminence in dealing A key focus is the most recent alliance review, “NATO 2030,” a with Moscow. comprehensive study of NATO’s strategic environment and a long list of recommendations. Yet Russia will be the summit’s centerpiece, including European desires to help shape Biden administration attitudes and policies toward Moscow. The summit’s deliberations will ratify commitments and actions to reassure allied states, especially those nearest to Russia, and to and the U.S. Congress have opposed, with the latter authoriz- make clear to Moscow that, on the fundamentals, the allies “do ing sanctions on firms working on the pipeline. not divide.” The alliance will also take on all Russian power- In the end, U.S. differences with some European countries projection challenges, including cyber security, emerging and on Russia and Vladimir Putin won’t pose a fundamental threat disrupting technologies, and interference in Western demo- to ties across the Atlantic; but “anti-Russia” will not suffice cratic politics. as glue for trans-Atlantic relations, even with understanding Still, formal allied agreement on opposing Russian of U.S. preeminence in dealing with Moscow. In the NATO ambitions in Europe (and elsewhere) is not as straight- combination of “deterrence plus dialogue,” Biden and his team forward as it may seem—certainly not as clear-cut as during have inclined more to the former, many Europeans to the lat- the Cold War or even immediately following Russia’s 2014 ter. In the United States, domestic opposition to attempts to seizure of Crimea and incursions into other parts of Ukraine, build a different future with Russia remains formidable, and with intensified threats this year. During the last several years, there is so far no evidence that Putin would respond positively. the U.S. approach to Russia has been drifting, on a bipartisan For Biden, getting Russia policy right will entail considerable basis, toward lasting confrontation, if not an actual cold war. efforts with allies and other Europeans, as well as with Russia. Trump took a progressively tougher line toward Mos- Middle East (focusing on Iran). Perspectives within the cow as he came under political attack for coddling Vladimir NATO alliance and the European Union, including between Putin. The possibilities for cooperation that Trump and Putin the United States and most European allies, diverge on some discussed at their July 2018 summit in Helsinki went nowhere other “outside of area” matters. The Middle East and environs when the U.S. media focused only on a belief about a cozy are the focus of at least two differences. The first is general: Trump-Putin relationship. President Biden has himself taken As the Biden administration seems to be following the Trump a hard line toward Russia, even though he has acknowledged administration in wanting to reduce the U.S. footprint in the the value of cooperating when possible and proposed to meet region (beginning with departure of U.S. and allied troops with Putin. (On the critical nuclear arms control agreement, from Afghanistan by Sept. 11), it is likely to want Europeans to New START, the two sides did agree in February to a five-year assume more responsibility for promoting Western interests in extension.) some other parts of the region. That will not be popular with The bottom line is that the United States is the only country most Europeans. with the weight to deal with Russia, and all the allies know it. The second is specific. Ever since Trump in May 2018 Thus, keeping America “in” is still critical insurance and will withdrew from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action continue to be so indefinitely. Yet the allies are not united in with Iran—a signal achievement of the Obama administration attitudes toward Russia. As a rule, the farther an ally is physi- and a major contribution to regional security and stability— cally from the Russian frontier, the more flexible is its national most Europeans have worried that the risks of crisis or even position. Otherwise, in a significant difference with Washing- conflict would increase, especially when Iran subsequently ton, Germany plans to continue with the Nord Stream 2 natu- began moving away from some JCPOA-agreed limitations on ral gas pipeline under the Baltics from Russia, which Biden its nuclear program.

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2021 35 Few, if any, European states will virtual unanimity on the need for the “Western” organization of international economic relations and rulemaking to prevail sign on to the full U.S. agenda over any Chinese alternative. But few, if any, European states in dealing with China. will sign on to the full U.S. agenda in dealing with China. It was one thing for the alliance to send troops to Afghani- stan after 9/11, when neighboring Russia was supine, to make sure the United States would not lessen its strategic interest in Europe. It would be quite another to give open-ended support for U.S. efforts to contain China, a major power that poses no President Biden has consistently declared his commitment security threats (e.g., terrorism) in Europe. Except where a to rejoining the JCPOA, and this is popular in Europe. Like clear common interest is established, the Biden administra- his predecessors, he has also expressed a desire to deal with tion will find few, if any, European takers. other Iranian behavior beyond the “nuclear file,” notably Iran’s ballistic missile program, support for regional proxies from Values and Interests: Yemen to Lebanon and what many Americans believe to be Nonmilitary Trans-Atlantic Issues its leading role in promoting terrorism (largely ignoring Saudi In addition to securing U.S. interests abroad, the Biden Arabia’s role). Yet both Biden and his top officials long argued administration also wants to promote democracy, a second- that, before the United States rejoins the JCPOA or reduces order U.S. priority since the Obama administration. This has U.S. sanctions on Iran, the latter must first return to compli- a values and ideology dimension, but it also has a geopoliti- ance with the agreement. In particular, Tehran must reverse cal purpose, with China, Iran and Russia as key targets. To try uranium enrichment undertaken since May 2018. building a common front with allied and partner countries, Iran takes the opposite position: that the United States, Biden has proposed a summit of democracies. At this writing, having quit the JCPOA, must move first. Arm’s-length nego- it is not clear that this idea has been thought through, includ- tiations did start in March; but if they do not lead to a break- ing who gets invited and who does not (not a trivial matter!), through, and America keeps its full sanctions regime in place, what the agenda would be and what “deliverables” there there will be major European misgivings because of the grow- would be in addition to rhetoric. Thus, a democracy summit ing risks of a deepening crisis. contains risks, including in trans-Atlantic relations, if comity is China. A further potential long-term problem for trans- not more or less guaranteed in advance. Atlantic relations is China. There are already stresses within Since the end of the Cold War, both security in Europe and the alliance because the United States is “pivoting” signifi- trans-Atlantic ties have increasingly moved beyond NATO’s cantly to Asia, as the Obama administration inelegantly put it, preeminence, although it remains the key institutional link in order to face Beijing’s rising power, position and ambitions. across the Atlantic and is highly popular with the American Greater U.S. preoccupation with China than with Europe is a people and Congress. Except for challenges and threats posed natural evolution of geopolitics and geoeconomics, even with by Russia since 2014—significant in themselves—nonmilitary Russia factored in. But the China issue will have an additional factors have become increasingly significant. impact on U.S. relations with its European allies because, like Since early 2020, COVID-19 has been most important, and its predecessor, the Biden administration expects the Europe- cooperation across the Atlantic has in general been posi- ans to follow the U.S. lead. tive: President Biden’s clarity and commitment on COVID-19 There is also a “do no harm” aspect—namely, U.S. concern have been most welcome in Europe. But the same coopera- over increasing Chinese economic penetration of European tion across the Atlantic (other than by Canada on the North countries (and the European Union), as part of Beijing’s Belt American side) cannot be said about the dramatic rise in and Road Initiative. This was underscored by the E.U.-China immigration to Europe from Africa and especially the Middle Comprehensive Agreement on Investment concluded two East, the latter to a great extent the result of the ill-conceived days after Biden’s inauguration. The Biden administration also 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. Immigration has proved to be wants the Europeans to support all elements of U.S. confron- the most important source of political and social stress ever tation with China. Fortunately for Western comity, there is since within the E.U.

36 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL Burdened with its own immigration issues, the United The matter of how security States has done virtually nothing to help, and that contin- ues true under Biden. Yet it is a key factor in one of the most burdens and responsibilities important challenges facing the Western community as a are to be shared is significant. whole: the falling away from democratic practice by some European countries, notably Poland and Hungary—ironically, two of the first three new NATO allies when the alliance began enlarging in 1999. A suggestion made at the time that NATO create a mecha- nism for counseling laggards in democracy was rejected by the Yet relations between NATO and the E.U. remain woefully Clinton administration. And it is not possible to threaten these inadequate, despite evidence that “security” has to be seen countries and their democratic leaders with expulsion from holistically and that institutional North American–European NATO; there is no provision for doing so. ties must have a strong economic dimension (beyond the deep integration of much of the private sector on both sides of the NATO and the European Union Atlantic). Moreover, America’s links to the European Union, The European Union has major roles to play in European to which it does not belong, can’t compete with its NATO security in the broadest sense, including economic and membership. political development in Central Europe and climate change. NATO obviously needs a robust relationship with the

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2021 37 President Biden has a chance asserted that NATO is experiencing “brain-death,” and that the E.U. should gain “military sovereignty” separate from NATO. to demonstrate renewed U.S. As demonstrated by fledgling efforts in the 1990s, the two leadership; but also important institutions can reinforce each other. Yet no one doubts that, if there were a military threat to Europe (i.e., from Russia), only is engaging European efforts, NATO and the United States could act. which are far from guaranteed. U.S. (and NATO) reluctance regarding separate European defense ambitions continues, as reflected in Stoltenberg’s comments at Munich: “Any attempt to weaken the trans- Atlantic bond will not only weaken NATO, but it will also divide Europe; so we have to have Europe and North America together in NATO. That’s the best way.” This concern should have been overcome long ago, both to help meet U.S. demands European Union. But this has advanced at a snail’s pace since, for greater European NATO burden-sharing and to lessen as U.S. ambassador to NATO in 1993, I coined the follow- worries about U.S. steadfastness. Joe Biden has dramatically ing aphorism: “NATO and the European Commission are lessened European doubts fostered by Donald Trump; but two institutions living in the same city on separate planets.” what happens with the next U.S. president? Franco-American cooperation did lead to some ties between In the meantime, there will be renewed American appeals NATO and the Western European Union, now the Common to get allies to “pull their weight” in defense spending. At its Security and Defence Policy; but these have hardly progressed 2014 Wales Summit, NATO set a goal for each ally to spend at since then. least 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) on defense, Notably, at the February Munich Security Conference although it is certain that not all the allies—maybe not even a President Biden made only one brief reference to the E.U.: majority—will meet that goal by its putative deadline of 2024, “The United States will work closely with our European despite overall allied spending on defense going up signifi- Union partners and the capitals across the continent—from cantly. The goal was problematic from the outset: It said more Rome to Riga—to meet the range of shared challenges we about “inputs” than about “outputs,” and it failed to under- face.” Meanwhile, although NATO Secretary General Jens stand adequately that “security” in Europe is about many Stoltenberg had little new to say on this subject, the “NATO factors, of which military strength is only one. A far better goal 2030” report has sensibly proposed, as a beginning, a summit- would be, say, 3 percent of GDP—but with a significant part level meeting between NATO and the E.U. countries—an going to economic development of Central European coun- idea I have pressed, without success, for every NATO summit tries, a key underpinning of the continent’s security. since 1999. President Biden and the Europeans have a chance to get this right. Leadership Is a Two-Way Street A cooperative and task-sharing relationship between NATO Secretary of State Antony Blinken has stressed the role of and the E.U. that recognizes the comprehensive, intercon- American leadership: bringing countries together “because nected nature of security needs to be high on the agenda—not they trust us to lead, and no one can unite others like we can.” a “security” based on one or another “tool,” but an encom- This is an ambitious project, but it does not command auto- passing method with overall commitments and activities, both matic support in Europe. This is particularly so when it comes public and private. to “outside of area” engagements. During the months ahead, President Biden has a chance The Issue of Burden-Sharing to demonstrate renewed U.S. leadership; but also important The matter of how security burdens and responsibilities are is engaging European efforts, which are far from guaranteed. to be shared is significant. Not surprisingly, given the Trump Biden’s earning renewed trust in the United States is the most administration’s attitudes toward Europe, the decades-old basic facet of “America is back,” but it’s also true that “leader- idea of an independent European defense force gained added ship,” cooperation and compromise are a two-way street. Both support. Two years ago, French President Emmanuel Macron America and Europe need to take note. n

38 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL FOCUS ON GREAT POWER COMPETITION TODAY

GPC— Meaningful Concept or Misleading Construct?

In this thought piece, two Senior FSOs offer contrasting takes on the phrase widely used to frame foreign policy today. BY ALEXIS LUDWIG AND KELLY KEIDERLING

TAKE ONE he reemergence early in the 21st century of so- called “great power competition” (GPC) as the central organizing principle for U.S. engagement with the world is yet another instance of there GPC: National Security being nothing new under the sun. It amounts Tto the resurfacing of what might be called the “deep struc- Strategy’s “Deep Structure” ture” of national security strategy, a structure that has shaped BY ALEXIS LUDWIG and informed much of the conduct of international relations throughout history. GPC has expressed itself in diverse forms— with different players competing in different ways in different parts in the world—but it has never really gone away. The great power competition of today is characterized by Alexis Ludwig is currently on the faculty of the National the dramatic rise of Xi Jinping’s People’s Republic of China as a War College. Prior to that, he served from 2018 to 2020 peer competitor of the United States and, to a lesser extent, by as deputy permanent representative at the U.S. Mission the revanchism of Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Napoleon’s Delphic to the Organization of American States. He joined the prophecy is telling from the vantage point of our own time: Foreign Service in 1994 and has spent most of his career “When China rises, the world will tremble” (Quand la Chine in overseas missions in the Western Hemisphere and East Asia. s’éveillera, le monde tremblera). The slow-moving shock waves Kelly Keiderling is a Senior Foreign Service officer associated with China’s undeniable rise and accompanying geo- who recently served as deputy commandant at the political assertiveness are a manifestation of competition that is National War College. She was U.S. ambassador to Uru- already well underway. guay from 2016 to 2019. During her 30-year career, she’s been assigned overseas to Latin America, post-Soviet A Constant in History Russia, and Anglophone African countries. In Washington, D.C., she “Great power competition” made its inaugural appear- has served in the bureaus of Western Hemisphere Affairs, Near Eastern ance in the first formal work of Western history ever written. Affairs, Global Talent Management, and Education and Cultural Affairs. In History of the Peloponnesian War, Thucydides describes the The views in this article are the authors’ and do not necessarily prolonged competition and clash between the city-states of represent those of the Department of State, Department of Defense Sparta and Athens more than 2,500 years ago. Closer to our age, or the U.S. government. full-blown great power competition flowered in Europe in the

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2021 39 China’s rise as a comprehensive ful rise”), unmasking Beijing’s broader ambition to equal and even to overtake the United States across all dimensions of peer competitor of the United power by 2049. China’s deeply ambivalent approach to the U.S.- States became an incontrovertible led liberal international order—using elements of that order to achieve its more narrow national aims, while also building fact with the ascension of parallel structures of its own—only reinforced the fact that GPC President Xi Jinping to power was upon us. At the same time, Russia’s provocative behavior in 2013. as a wounded power intent on reasserting its sphere of influ- ence, undermining the liberal international order and harassing the United States and its allies, signaled a broader reversion to historical mean. Former President Donald Trump’s 2017 National Security Strategy marked an overt, even bare-knuckled recognition of early 19th century when Napoleon’s France took the continent this fact. The document described a “competitive world” in by storm, overreached and then was forced into retrenchment which “China and Russia challenge American power, influence by its great power rivals Britain, Russia and Prussia. Following and interests, attempting to erode American security and pros- the unification of German states under Bismarck, World War I perity. They are determined to make economies less free and and World War II reflected, at the most fundamental level, the less fair, to grow their militaries, and to control information and reverberations of great power competition between a rising data to repress their societies and expand their influence.” The Germany and its continental rivals, most notably France, Britain NSS further emphasized: “The competitions and rivalries facing and Russia. The world wars also marked the definitive rise of the the United States are not passing trends or momentary prob- United States as a new great power on the block. lems. They are intertwined, long-term challenges that demand The Cold War, which remains the central geostrategic our sustained national attention and commitment.” Whatever reference for the baby boomer generation in power today, one’s view of the nuances and subplots, GPC had returned in was characterized by the U.S.-led democratic West against the earnest. Communist East bloc, led by the Soviet Union. That Moscow The Biden administration is unlikely to alter this underly- explicitly sought, as a matter of ideology and policy, to destroy ing structure, even as it seeks to open the strategic aperture to the Western system and to replace it with global communism, include critical global issues—climate change being the central turned Cold War GPC into a kind of life-or-death struggle that one—that will require great power cooperation as well as com- shaped nearly every aspect of our engagement with the world. petition. This is because there is now broad consensus across The collapse of the USSR and the emergence of the so-called the U.S. political spectrum about the implications of China’s “new world order” saw the United States suddenly—and tem- rise and Russia’s continuing effort to find its footing after the porarily—thrust into the role of sole remaining superpower. In breakup of the USSR, and the challenges they (separately and the absence of clear great power competition and, by extension, together) pose to the liberal international order, in particular, a clear set of strategic priorities, it became a time for recalibra- and to democracy and freedom more broadly. tion and reconfiguration—more disorder than order. The 9/11 The Biden administration’s Interim National Security Stra- terror attacks unleashed the “global war on terror,” which played tegic Guidance document, published in March, underscores a stopgap role in organizing our global engagement for the bal- this basic policy continuity: “China, in particular, has rapidly ance of this transition. become more assertive. It is the only competitor potentially capable of combining its economic, diplomatic, military and Reemergence of Overt Great Power Competition technological power to mount a sustained challenge to a stable in the 21st Century and open international system. Russia remains determined to China’s rise as a comprehensive peer competitor of the enhance its global influence and play a disruptive role on the United States became an incontrovertible fact with the ascen- world stage.” sion of President Xi Jinping to power in 2013. Xi ended China’s Summing up, the Biden strategic guidance document pro- long era of low-profile strategic patience (the so-called “peace- ceeds to set forth an agenda that “will strengthen our enduring

40 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL advantages and allow us to prevail in strategic competition with clearer objective in mind, enabling us to achieve greater things China and any other nation.” than we might have done in the absence of worthy competitors. Would we have marshalled the kind of concerted collective GPC as Artifact, Frame and Spur to Action effort needed to “land a man on the Moon and bring him safely Whatever the historical context, “great power competition” back to earth” were it not for the Sputnik challenge in the con- is an artifact of human political imagination, not a manifesta- text of Cold War competition with the Soviet Union? Might we tion of political geology or nature. It is anchored in an assess- expect similar positive results from the great power competition ment about what matters most to the survival, well-being and with China unfolding today? If not, why not? interests of a state, or what ought to. This assessment and the While it is wise to avoid Pollyannaish thinking, it is equally decisions that flow from it are intended to shape and inform unwise to bet against the United States of America. Whatever national strategy—to ensure that national efforts, resources the vulnerabilities of our more open democratic system and the and instruments of power are orchestrated and directed to core advantages of our competitors’ centrally controlled autocratic priorities based on a clear calculation of national interests. alternatives, this is a time to double down on our strengths: It is important to emphasize here that great power competi- more open, free-wheeling and democratic, more resilient and tion does not necessarily mean great power confrontation or resourceful, more innovative, nimble and able to adapt to new conflict. That, too, is a political choice, not a historical inevita- threats and opportunities. This is a time to become—as journal- bility. Moreover, competition itself is a great engine of human ist James Fallows argued in a related context just over a genera- motivation, effort and accomplishment. The United States has tion ago—“more like us.” enthusiastically embraced competition as a core value and ideal GPC is a useful frame to engage the world collectively for across nearly all spheres of human activity. Competition com- constructive benefit, repelling threats and seizing opportunities. pels us to work harder and smarter, with a keener focus and a But if there’s a more useful one, we should welcome it.

TAKE TWO

“Great Power Competition”: A Phrase that Simplifies and Confuses

BY KELLY KEIDERLING

t least since President Donald Trump issued his which great powers throughout history have maneuvered to National Security Strategy in December 2017, the gain more security and prosperity at the expense of other great national security community has been obsessing powers. GPC also works as clarifying shorthand for American about great power competition (already shortened compatriots who have little time for foreign affairs and who may to GPC). GPC is framed as a great-power struggle be more easily galvanized to support international competition Amostly with the People’s Republic of China, with Vladimir Putin’s against the PRC. Russia participating as a spoiler. GPC is a simple slogan for understanding international rela- GPC is a comfortable frame for the baby boomer leaders tions, but it confuses more than it clarifies. On the “forever” front across our interagency community who began their careers dur- in which our State Department lives—that international horizon ing the Cold War. It is an elegant frame for the grand strategists that exists whether Americans are paying attention or not, that who want a unified theory of everything. It is a favorite of our perpetual-motion machine of sovereign states, international academic and practitioner colleagues whose principal foreign organizations and nonstate actors—the world is much more affairs lens is realpolitik, the balance-of-power geopolitics in complex.

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2021 41 sure that power? When can we stop accumulating power? When is U.S. global influence and prestige sufficient? When have we been successful in our competition with the PRC?

Focus on U.S. Strategic Goals We need a lens focused on U.S. strategic goals rather than on GPC. Toward that end, I offer a “foreign policy wheel” to help frame broad U.S. foreign policy goals. I propose that, since COURTESY OF KELLY KEIDERLING World War II, to a greater or lesser extent, the United States has Ambassador Kelly Keiderling uses this “foreign policy wheel” to identify the five essential U.S. foreign policy goals since advanced on five essential foreign policy goals: 1) understand- World War II. ing global affairs and creating a world order based on rules, 2) increasing U.S. security, 3) enabling U.S. prosperity, 4) advancing The World Is More Complex democracy, and 5) defending human rights and helping create So much of our State Department’s work doesn’t fit neatly more just, equitable human societies. into competition with the PRC (and Russia, which is often For each country, for each region, let us create dynamic strat- included in the GPC framework). Our engagement in the West- egies with specific, more measurable foreign policy goals that ern Hemisphere has the most impact on the average American’s address the most pressing of these five goals. For Southeast Asia, security and prosperity, regardless of the PRC’s presence in our primary U.S. goals would include (among others) freedom of hemisphere. The African continent is moving fast into its future, navigation through the South China Sea, improved democratic powered by young, professional Africans. We want to partner governance in the Philippines and economic partnership with with those dynamic Africans, regardless of how many infrastruc- Vietnam. In Ukraine, for example, we would focus on strength- ture projects the Chinese build on the African continent. ening the country’s democracy, economy (by fighting corrup- Our European, Japanese, South Korean, Australian, New Zea- tion) and security against Russian intervention, in part to sustain lander and Canadian allies are important not just to counterbal- a global order in which sovereign borders and territorial integrity ance the PRC but also, mostly, because those alliances form the are respected. bedrock of American security and prosperity and the engine for Finally, the overarching strategic threats facing humanity in making this world more democratic and just. If our international the 21st century—climate change, global pandemics, an internet relations are defined by “Are we beating the Chinese in Africa?” awash in mis- and disinformation—require cooperation with the we will tell our partners around the world that they hardly mat- PRC, Russia and other powers big and small. GPC will distract ter unless the PRC is making them an offer. We will miss a great us from pursuing tailored policy goals more likely to yield mea- number of opportunities to advance U.S. interests and values. surable success. An obsessive focus on GPC will detract from Our allocation of national security resources will be weighted strengthening carefully calibrated partnerships that we need toward anything-PRC. Our foreign affairs work is just not reduc- with each country and international organization. ible to competing with the PRC and fending off malicious Rus- Our national security enterprise is filled with professional, sian designs. dedicated, analytical public servants across many agencies. Besides, GPC describes a dialectical process, not a strategic Comforting, familiar and simple as it might be for us in the goal. GPC is about the United States accumulating raw eco- interagency community to default to “great power competition” nomic, military and cultural power: economic output, volume to explain our missions, let’s take the extra analytical step to of international trade and investment, size and reach of armed explain to Congress and the American people the challenges forces, number of patents and number of entertainment prod- we face on the forever front. ucts, media outlets and footprint of U.S. Big Tech, for example. Let’s be more precise in explaining how we’ve converted Concerned about balancing the PRC’s economic might, the U.S. our diplomatic, informational, military and economic power in then needs to convert our raw power into global influence to— each corner of the world to buttress a rules-based world order, what, precisely?—perhaps to become even more powerful, to be to secure the U.S. from global threats, to find opportunities to perceived by other great powers as more powerful, to increase increase U.S. prosperity, to advance democratic governance, and the prestige and standing of the United States. How do we mea- to defend human rights and foster better, more just societies. n

42 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL FEATURE

Whatever Happened to MICROFINANCE? —A Cautionary Tale—

The success or failure of any icrofinance, the provision of development program depends on financial services to the poor, a thorough grasp of the context in burst onto the world stage as a solution to underdevelop- which it is being implemented. ment in the 1970s. The basis of BY THOMAS DICHTER its popularity was the idea that once such services, especially credit, are made available to the poor, they will invest in small businesses that will lead them out of poverty. MMuhammad Yunus, whose Grameen Bank in Bangladesh started the movement in the mid-1970s, claimed that “credit is a human right.” And by the late 1990s microfinance had so much momentum that 3,000 people from more than 140 countries gathered at a Microcredit Summit in Washington, D.C., in 1997 Thomas Dichter has worked in international to hear its praises sung by Queen Sofia of Spain, First Lady Hill- development for 50 years in 60 developing countries. ary Clinton, Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin and the presidents A Peace Corps volunteer in Morocco in the early of Peru and Uganda. In 2006, Yunus won the Nobel Peace Prize. 1960s and, much later, a Peace Corps country director Yet after a decades-long run, the numbers tell the story of a in Yemen, he was vice president of TechnoServe, a fading fad. The 1997 summit had predicted 100 million bor- program officer at the Aga Khan Foundation in Geneva, a researcher rowers by 2005 and continued growth, as the huge number of on development issues for the Hudson Institute and a consultant for “unbanked” people began to avail themselves of microfinance many international agencies, including the United Nations Develop- services. As of 2019 there were 140 million borrowers worldwide ment Program, the International Fund for Agricultural Development, (80 percent of them women), for a total gross loan portfolio of the World Bank and USAID, as well as the Austrian and Philippine $124 billion. But measured against the reality that there are 1.7 governments. He is the author of Despite Good Intentions: Why billion people in the world who are “unbanked” (22 percent of Development Assistance to the Third World Has Failed (University the world population), the expected demand for microfinance of Massachusetts Press, 2003) and co-editor of What’s Wrong with services has simply not materialized. In fact, the rate of growth Microfinance? (Practical Action Press, 2007). The views in this article in new clients in the last decade has been going down. are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent those of the Moreover, there is no evidence that access to financial services, U.S. government. especially microloans, has a significant effect on poverty, much

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2021 43 flexibility to shift to other products or other locations as demand It is a mistake to assume that changes. In the best-case scenario—let’s say that the spice seller before aid efforts came along, has great natural selling skills—she does manage to raise her the poor had not already figured net income, say from $1.50 per day to $2.35. This is a meaningful increase for her, but it is not enough to move her out of poverty. out how things work in their Instead of being very poor, she is now merely poor; she can add world and how to optimize that a piece of corrugated roofing to her shack, but because of her knowledge. lack of resilience her improved status may be temporary. In short, her condition has changed in the short run, but her position in society has not; she is not on the ladder to economic less forms a sustainable basis for economic development, or that growth. This important distinction between condition and posi- “financial inclusion” (the term used today to encompass micro- tion is largely ignored in the microfinance community. For, as finance services) is even a real need. Microfinance practitioners we’re now relearning about “structural racism” in the United have largely ignored such findings, beginning with the conclu- States, it is people’s position in society (determined by complex sions of a 2009 randomized controlled trial in Hyderabad’s slums historical, sociocultural factors and, often, hidden arrangements conducted by MIT’s Poverty Action Lab. Blinkered by their narrow in the political economy) that counts, not immediate or short- focus on getting financial services to the poor, microfinance term changes in their “condition.” organizations, especially the nonprofits, see only the short-term Such contextual complexities are specific to each country or effects: a roadside seller whose daily profit grows from $1.00 a day region. They include but are not limited to: local and national to $1.45, a woman who can now put a sheet of corrugated iron history, custom, law, beliefs; the particulars of location, trans- on her hut’s roof, etc. They blot out the all-important contexts in portation and communications infrastructure; land tenure and which their clients live—contexts that are layered with complexi- labor arrangements; the differing economizing strategies of a ties that, especially in the poorest parts of the world, account for variety of social units such as the household, clan or tribe; how barriers that microloan programs can do little to surmount. political controls are exerted; the durability of social capital; eth- Yet a rigorous examination of the context for microfinance nic, religious and class competition; the ways in which kinship and the poor it seeks to reach is exactly what should have been bonds often underlie economic activities; and the possibility in done from the beginning. A review of just some of the contextual many developing societies that the economic return of an activ- issues offers a cautionary tale of how important (and challeng- ity (production, trading) is only one of many goals. ing) it is to understand them. Not least among the contextual variables is the level of eco- nomic development, including the degree to which governance, 1. Position counts more than condition—the legal and financial regimes and the rule of law are developed. If sociocultural context of poverty. these institutions are “underdeveloped,” there is less stability, Most microloan recipients in the poorest countries are subsis- less equality of opportunity and more corruption, and people tence farmers or petty traders selling out of a small space on the have less trust in government. ground or from a rickety table on a roadside or in the ubiquitous In short, in many of the developing country environments markets of sub-Saharan Africa, parts of South and Southeast Asia where microfinance has been applied, its potential as a poverty and some parts of Latin America. These largely informal sector solution is severely diminished. Those who are supposed to ben- “jobs” constitute the bulk of economic activity for most people in efit end up, at best, “all dressed up with no place to go.” those countries. A woman selling spices by the 10-gram packet or razor blades by the unit sits in a row of others with similar goods. 2. Human nature—money is fungible. She takes a microloan of $20 and, in theory, buys more product, A founding assumption of microfinance was that loans would thus increasing her inventory and potentially raising her profit. be invested in a business. In fact, much of microcredit instead But studies by economic anthropologists, sociologists and goes to “consumption smoothing,” softening the peaks and val- field workers like myself (since the 1980s, I have evaluated leys of the cash-flow graph so it looks more like a ripple than a scores of such programs) reveal that having more inventory in roller coaster. Such smoothing makes it easier to get over a cash a low-margin economy actually increases risk by reducing the crunch or to enable the purchase of medicine or the financing

44 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL of a wedding. While this is of value to a poor person, in business terms it does not generate the money to pay back the loan. We are well advised to Yet many microfinance programs report repayment rates acknowledge a good dose of greater than 90 percent, something any big bank would die for. humility about how far, really, we What we don’t see as clearly is whether such rates are sustain- able; nor do we see the myriad ways borrowers use to repay have come, and how much, really, (including borrowing from another microfinance program). we know about poverty. Moreover, as loan size grows, it is more likely that payments will be delayed, or loans will not be repaid at all. accumulation is not even a legitimate goal. In such cultures there 3. The poor of the developing world already have are leveling mechanisms designed to prevent any one person or complex financial systems of their own. group from gaining wealth greater than the others in the society. Since the 1950s, when Sol Tax did fieldwork in the markets While the potlatch of the Northwest Coast Native Americans of northwestern Guatemala and coined the phrase “penny (in which valuable goods are routinely destroyed) is long gone, capitalism,” anthropologists and others have studied markets similar mechanisms exist all over the developing world—such as a all over the world. They strongly suggest, first, that it is a mistake public feast or an expensive wedding, or the redistribution of graz- to assume that before aid efforts came along, the poor had not ing animals when a family comes into wealth. already figured out how things work in their world and how to All of this is not to say that poverty in the developing coun- optimize that knowledge. tries is a happy state, or that the poor have no desire to improve In reality, poor people in agrarian and bazaar economies their lot—clearly they do. The point is that we outsiders need have long understood risk, resilience, credit, debt and savings— to be careful not to assume that our interventions are the right despite not being “financially literate” from our standpoint. ones or the right starting point. Most important, in their terms, they may not want or need our interventions. The international development community that 4. There is a difference between entrepreneurs backs much of the financial inclusion agenda makes a simple growing the economy, and people generating zero-sum calculation: If you are not formally included, you are income. excluded. But the literature shows that a significant portion One of the pillars of microfinance was its assumption that of the poor already are included in financial services that take the poor are entrepreneurial. With all our advantages in the many forms, albeit not formal modern ones. advanced economies, it is obvious that only a small percentage Traditional societies have always had forms of savings—in of people are entrepreneurs. The rest of us are content to be land, livestock, jewelry, even cloth. And the poor in many employees or freelance gig workers. Similarly, the average petty societies have always had ways of acquiring lump sums of cash. trader or subsistence farmer selling products in a roadside Informally organized ROSCAS (rotating savings and credit asso- market did not choose to be an entrepreneur, but rather to ciations)—called “susu” or “round robins” in parts of Africa, or generate enough income to survive. “arisans” in Indonesia—are common throughout the world. As for economic growth, a critical determinant of economic As for small business loans, trade credit (aka supplier credit) potential is the question of whether a small trader or farmer has is also common. For example, say a trader buys samosas to the room to expand or grow even with an injection of credit. sell along with her tea. She’ll get 30 samosas or so at a reduced Almost by definition, the barriers to entry into the market are per-item rate and not have to pay until later in the day when her low for a petty trader or small farmer. Anyone can set up shop. tea business is over. But the most common source of business Since the small trader is often part-time (e.g., fishermen’s wives start-up capital is friends and family. In fact, most of the storied or farm people in slack season), they move into the market and entrepreneurial successes in the United States (from Walt Dis- add another degree of saturation to an already crowded field, ney to Subway and Amazon) began with loans from friends and often made more crowded by the presence of microfinance. family, not from banks. And since the opportunity costs and the barriers to entry are To emphasize the point that “unbanked” people are not neces- low, higher technical knowledge is generally lacking, profits sarily clamoring to be “banked,” there are cultures where wealth (and risks) are low because transactions are small (sometimes

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2021 45 at the level of selling sugar by the cube) and the duration of trans- three-quarters of a century of post–World War II growth in the actions is short. advanced economies, that we see how vulnerable most people In short, most of the characteristics of real enterprises and in our own privileged world are to context. We are well advised entrepreneurs are missing. In these bazaar types of economy to acknowledge a good dose of humility about how far, really, we (as opposed to the firm-based economies characteristic of the have come, and how much, really, we know about poverty. advanced industrial countries), goods flow, as anthropologist What Henry George said in 1879 in his famous book Progress Clifford Geertz once put it, “in hundreds of little trickles, fun- and Poverty remains true today: “This association of poverty with neled through an enormous number of transactions,” and the progress is the great enigma of our times. It is the central fact trader “is perpetually looking for a chance to make a smaller or from which spring industrial, social and political difficulties that larger killing, not attempting to build up a stable clientele or a perplex the world, and with which statesmanship and philan- steadily growing business.” thropy and education grapple in vain. From it come the clouds that overhang the future of the most progressive and self-reliant First, Invest in Understanding nations. … All important as this question is, pressing itself from Since there has always been a social purpose to microfinance, every quarter painfully upon attention, it has not yet received a its greatest fault is its almost willful ignorance of the social, cul- solution which accounts for all the facts and points to any clear tural and economic complexities of the many systems in which and simple remedy.” its clients operate and live. Context is key, and if the contextual In the enormously challenging project of poverty alleviation in conditions are not conducive to a generally rising tide, then pov- the developing countries, therefore, the starting point must not be an erty remains and can even grow. Ironically, it is only now, after urgent jump into action, but first an investment in understanding. n

46 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL AFSA NEWS THE OFFICIAL RECORD OF THE AMERICAN FOREIGN SERVICE ASSOCIATIONAFSA NEWS

AFSA Renovates and Expands Memorial Plaques CALENDAR Please check In May, AFSA completed a www.afsa.org for the most up-to-date information. once-in-a-generation expan- All events are subject sion of its memorial plaques. to cancellation or The $50,000 project added rescheduling. 10 new or replacement June 10 plaques in the C Street 8 a.m. lobby of the Harry S Truman Governing Board election Building. deadline for ballots to be The first AFSA memorial received at AFSA plaque was installed in 1933 June 15 in the State, War and Navy 1 p.m. Building (known today as Diplomats at Work: the Eisenhower Executive Reopening the U.S. Office Building) next to the Consulate in Greenland White House. It memorialized June 16 American diplomatic and 12-2 p.m. consular officers who died in AFSA Governing circumstances distinctive to Board meeting overseas service since the July 5 founding of the republic. AFSA offices closed Moved to its current loca- in observance of

tion on the west wall of the C JOHN NALAND Independence Day Street lobby in 1961, its last TOP: Master stone mason July 15 open space for inscribing a John Kinnaird (left) and his New AFSA Governing name was filled in 1967. AFSA team install a replacement side panel beside the original 1933 Board takes office placed a second large plaque AFSA memorial plaque on the on the east wall of the lobby, west end of the C Street lobby but it was full by 1988. AFSA of Main State. Reinscribing the side panels allowed the then added four side plaques reinstituting the practice— 69 new historical names to be which, as of March, had only incorporated with the existing discontinued in 1965—of eight remaining spaces. names in chronological order. inscribing the cause of death. Even while space for future The AFSA Governing Board LEFT: One of six new panels inscriptions was running installed on columns in the approved the project in out, several AFSA members C Street lobby. August 2020. conducted diligent research The work was carried out over a period of years, iden- by R.S. Kinnaird Memorials tifying 56 early diplomats Diplomats and Consuls” by replacing the four existing of Thurmont, Maryland. John and consular officers dating Jason Vorderstrasse in the side plaques with reinscribed Kinnaird has inscribed names back to 1794 whose deaths November 2020 Foreign versions. These included the on AFSA’s plaques in the C were unknown when AFSA Service Journal, p. 66). 69 newly identified historical Street lobby since the late unveiled the original plaque Noting these two develop- names to provide a chrono- 1990s. plus 13 FS members who died ments, AFSA Retiree Vice logically coherent, dignified He has also completed between 1938 and 1971 not President John K. Naland pro- commemoration of our fallen large projects at Arlington commemorated at the time posed adding six new plaques colleagues. Cemetery, the Smithsonian, (see “America’s Overlooked on the lobby columns and Naland also proposed Continued on page 50

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2021 47 STATE VP VOICE | BY TOM YAZDGERDI AFSA NEWS

Contact: [email protected] | (202) 647-8160

Telework: Productive and Family Friendly

Years ago, many people at members of the department’s move away from telework ibility, including telework, will the State Department viewed Reimagine Task Force on eligibility, one of the team’s promote strong families and teleworking as somehow less its pilot Telework Eligibility top priorities is to find ways to work-life balance. than real work. Supervisors Framework Initiative, which increase teleworking among That is why AFSA has were sometimes hesitant to began in October 2020. The those who require access to included in its recommenda- approve telework agreements. task force looked at which classified information. The tions to the Biden administra- Department leaders and State positions lent them- team expressed confidence tion the adoption of clear poli- supervisors had the lingering selves to telework. that this would be achievable cies in domestic and overseas feeling that employees who Pilot results showed that over the next three years. environments that permit teleworked were not being 54 percent of bureau employ- Guidance on balancing tele- appropriate telework and productive enough. ees were actively teleworking. work within an office has been remote work arrangements. However, the pandemic The team drew on data col- drafted and an implementa- This includes moderniza- has led to dramatic changes lected across 10 bureaus cov- tion guide is currently being tion of Foreign Affairs Manual in how work is done and ering 532 positions to create prepared. But initial plans to policies on technology and where, and has shown us on a “Telework Eligibility Score” share the initiative’s results in security to better support a national level that the tradi- as guidance in determining a January town hall event and mobile/remote work and a tional workplace will never be eligibility for telework. complete bureau assessments technology subsidy for all the same, and that employees The team found that more identifying employee needs employees to support blended who telework can be at least positions than anticipated lent (with projected implementa- work environments and as productive as those who themselves to some form of tion in late February or March) remote work. come into the office. telework, with bureaus such have been delayed. Next Steps. We will work Citing a Department of as Educational and Cultural AFSA hopes this initiative with the department to build Defense Inspector General Affairs garnering higher will pick up steam in the near on the success of telework report, the April 5 Govern- telework scores, while other future so that more bureaus and make it an integral part of ment Executive found that bureaus, such as Democracy, and offices are included, and our work culture so that State nearly 90 percent of Pentagon Human Rights, and Labor we all can see the results for can better compete with other employees said they were as scored comparatively lower, ourselves. government agencies and the productive, if not more so, as they typically deal with AFSA’s Position. private sector. when teleworking rather than classified information. AFSA strongly supports this At a recent meeting with working from the office. The team also found that initiative, not only because AFSA leadership one high- At State, the results of sur- supervisors were surprised at telework has proven itself, but level department official veys conducted department- the ease of scoring positions because such initiatives can asked if people would ever wide and by individual mis- and the number of telework help change the work culture come back to work. Of course, sions and bureaus tell much options available, and that at State. Changing this culture at some point, most of us will the same story. After some they themselves could tele- will no doubt pay dividends physically return to the office. initial technical issues with work. in increased productivity and But the more important access, the vast majority of Use of the program help with retention. question is: How can we use employees—Foreign Service, framework was mandatory in Indeed, the results of the the experience of the pan- Civil Service, locally employed determining eligibility, but the AFSA retention survey con- demic to make the workplace staff, contractors and eligible scores were then used only ducted last winter indicated more attractive so that being family members—have been as guidance, which allowed that among all survey respon- both a productive employee able to log in to OpenNet and supervisors to retain flexibility dents, the number one work and caring family member other applications and work concerning positions “on the concern was impact on family. are not mutually exclusive productively. cusp” that did not reach the Among those who actually propositions? Reimagine Telework qualifying score. left the Service, family was We look forward to hearing Pilot. In December 2020 While Senior Foreign the top reason cited. And we your views at member@afsa. AFSA received a briefing from Service positions tended to know that having work flex- org. n

48 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL USAID VP VOICE | BY JASON SINGER AFSA NEWS

Contact: [email protected] | (202) 712-5267

tion of new FSOs and their time both for USAID and for Words of Thanks families. development. There will be A special thank you to all excitement and rewards for Spring has sprung as I write tinue recruiting, onboarding our Foreign Service National you, along with challenges. this in mid-April. Birds are and hiring. colleagues, as well. I know Thank you—and your fami- chirping, flowers are bloom- This wasn’t just a matter of that you often find yourselves lies—for committing to USAID ing and the administration’s switching to a Google Meets working with new FSOs who and its mission at this critical budget, which suggests a interview platform. There are have less embassy and mis- juncture. And know that the healthy increase for USAID, laws, rules, forms, paperwork, sion experience, and quite agency and AFSA are here to is out. And, thankfully, people processes, oversight and often less technical experi- support you. are being vaccinated. engagement that our HCTM ence, than you. Looking ahead, we all need I would like to build on the colleagues had to adhere to I know many of you serve to keep up our mutual sup- gratitude I feel and take a and address—all the while as mentors and invaluable port and gratitude. President moment to express deep and supporting our current colleagues, helping new—and Biden’s discretionary request strong appreciation to USAID employees in the midst of a seasoned!—FSOs learn the seeks resources for “strength- colleagues for their service, pandemic (not to mention a ropes, the forms, the rules ening a diverse and inclusive strength and commitment reorganization!). and, of course, the culture, diplomatic corps by increas- throughout the pandemic. And a special shout-out to political economy and com- ing the size of the Foreign And I’d like to extend a few HCTM’s Foreign Service Cen- plexities of your countries and Service and Civil Service for shout-outs along with a few ter—you know who you are! governments. the Department of State and words of hope. Thank you for your dedication, I know this because I USAID, along with the technol- Each Foreign Service your care of colleagues and benefit from your expertise ogy and training to revital- officer has a unique story your commitment. And thanks each time I go to a new post. ize these agencies’ national of joining USAID. Each can to those beyond HCTM who Thank you. security workforce.” describe the specific spoonful also play critical roles in bring- Last but not least, a sincere In this spirit, we will—hope- of bureaucratic alphabet soup ing new FSOs on board and thank you and welcome to all fully—continue to welcome that nourished the hiring pro- into the FS family. of our new FSO colleagues. new Foreign Service officers cess (e.g., IDI, NEP, DLI, C3). Thank you to all the You chose to become Foreign and build USAID’s future We all remember our initial backstop coordinators, Service officers at a complex together. n supervisors, mentors, posts assignments and career and colleagues. But take a counselors and individuals moment and think of our across bureaus and indepen- AFSA RETENTION AND newest FSO colleagues, hired dent offices, missions and INCLUSION RECOMMENDATIONS and onboarded during the beyond—including imple- pandemic, assigned to posts menting partners who help Over the past six months, AFSA invited our that are overstretched and the whole process. All of you members to complete two surveys: one on bias operating beyond capacity. are committed colleagues in the workplace, and another on retention. What stories these will be! who serve as formal and Using the feedback we received from those As we all know, our success informal supervisors, allies surveys and from an extensive round of consultations NEWS BRIEF doesn’t just happen. And so, I and supporters. Often you do with employee affinity and resource groups, AFSA want to use this column to say this above and beyond your has identified a list of priority advocacy items to “thank you.” “day jobs.” promote improved retention, diversity, equity and Thank you to our Office Joining the Foreign Service inclusion in the Foreign Service. of Human Capital and Talent goes beyond just adapting to We believe our recommendations would, if Management colleagues, who a new job—it involves getting implemented, arrest the growing problem of didn’t start from the premise used to a new way of life. The declining retention and restore and repair morale that, “Well, we can’t hire under collective support and care in the U.S. Foreign Service. COVID-19—that won’t work.” from formal and informal View AFSA’s retention, diversity, equity and Rather, in true USAID fashion, mentors are critical to ensur- inclusion recommendations at bit.ly/afsa-inclusion. n they figured out how to con- ing the success and integra-

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2021 49 AFSA ON THE HILL | BY KIM GREENPLATE

Seizing the Moment: Expand the U.S. Foreign Service

In the upcoming 2022 federal process of addressing the billion increase in the inter- increasingly diverse U.S. budget process, AFSA plans ongoing pandemic. national affairs budget. “It’s population. to take advantage of recent At the same time, the idea time to stop trying to solve And third, it will enable the Biden administration and of adequately equipping our non-military problems with State Department and USAID congressional calls for more foreign affairs agencies is alive military tools, and actually to meet growing mission State and USAID resources and well on the Hill. Congress give agencies like the State requirements. The United to advocate expansion of the is sympathetic to AFSA’s Department and USAID the States is facing a variety of U.S. Foreign Service. request for more positions resources they need in the new threats and concerns dip- The aim is to be able to and has shown its desire to 21st century,” wrote Sena- lomats did not have to reckon field a full team of diplomacy use the Foreign Service as the tors Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) with even 10 years ago. and development profession- first line of defense. and Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) Seizing the moment als overseas and at home. This new perspective on and Representatives David also applies to Congress’s Specifically, AFSA is seeking federal funding for diplomacy Cicilline (D-R.I.) and Ami Bera consideration of authoriza- 1,000 new State Depart- and development got a power- (D-Calif.). tion bills, not just the budget ment positions and 650 new ful boost last spring, at the It is up to AFSA to capital- and appropriations process. USAID positions. beginning of the coronavirus ize on such calls for expanding For example, Congress has The fact that the Fis- pandemic. The unprecedented resources. demonstrated an appetite for cal Year 2022 budget and repatriation operation carried Creating and filling 1,000 passing a State Department appropriations process is off out by the State Department new State Department posi- Authorization Act, which is to a slower start than normal impressed members of Con- tions and 650 new USAID expected to be considered gives us an opportunity to gress from both parties who positions for the Foreign later this year as part of a big- make the case for the Foreign had constituents needing to Service in FY 2022 will help ger legislative vehicle. It is also Service more thoroughly on get back home. accomplish three major considering a broader 21st Capitol Hill. The Biden administra- things. Century Foreign Service Act. The slowed budget tion has hinted at its support First, it will create a training Larger-scale authorization process is a result of a new for increasing the budget float so members of the For- bills like this present oppor- administration crafting the for international affairs and eign Service can take advan- tunities for more permanent president’s budget request, increasing the size of the tage of professional training policy changes to improve as well as the bipartisan Foreign Service already, ahead and be better prepared for morale and retention in the reintroduction of “community of the full budget request. their jobs. Foreign Service career, creat- funding projects” (formerly In a March 16 letter, four Second, it will allow ing an environment ripe for known as earmarks) in the legislators called for a $12 expanded intake from an expansion. n

Memorial Plaques pleted, the AFSA memorial to uncover additional histori- gress in 1933 authorized for Continued from page 47 plaques now honor 321 col- cal names, so AFSA will honor placement on government Theodore Roosevelt Island leagues and provide space for any newly identified early property. and elsewhere. Bennett Var- 102 future inscriptions. colleagues on a virtual AFSA Criteria for inscription are ghese of the Department of If the sad toll of deaths of memorial plaque on the AFSA on the AFSA website under State’s Bureau of Administra- Foreign Service members website. That will save the the Awards & Honors tab. tion coordinated the installa- in the line of duty continues remaining open space on the For a history of the tion logistics. at the same rate it has since physical plaques to honor plaques and their inscription The 10 plaques are made 1990, the new plaques will be contemporary and future criteria, see “The Foreign of black granite with deep-cut full in 50 years. Foreign Service members. Service Honor Roll” by sandblasted inscriptions in The plaques could fill up AFSA owns and manages John K. Naland in the May gold lettering. more quickly, however, if the memorial plaques, which 2020 Foreign Service Journal With this expansion com- archival research continues a joint resolution of Con- (p. 44). n

50 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL AFSA Editorial Board

Welcomes Two New Members LLEWELLYN BRONWYN OF COURTESY DEPARTMENT STATE Bronwyn Llewellyn Jane Carpenter-Rock

The Foreign Service Journal Tibet. She currently serves as deputy director of the Office of the book Betye Saar in the is excited to welcome two a congressional liaison officer of Public Diplomacy and David C. Driskell Series of new members to its Editorial for USAID’s Bureau for Legis- Public Affairs in the Bureau of African American Art (Pome- Board: Bronwyn Llewellyn lative and Public Affairs. African Affairs. She has also granate, 2003). and Jane Carpenter-Rock. Foreign Service Officer served in Bogotá, Cape Town, Editorial Board members Llewellyn is a second- Jane Carpenter-Rock has Johannesburg and Washing- Dinah Zeltser-Winant (USAID) generation USAID FSO: her been with the State Depart- ton, D.C. and Chris Teal (State) are father, Charles Llewellyn, ment for 19 years. She joined Prior to joining the State moving on after four years served as a health officer for the National Museum of Department, Carpenter-Rock and two years, respectively. USAID and retired in 2010, American Diplomacy in July held several museum fellow- Thank you to Dinah and Chris almost a year to the day 2018 as deputy director ships including the Sara Roby for their service and for their before Bronwyn was sworn in. for museum content and Fellowship in 20th-Century consistently thoughtful guid- She is an environment became acting director of the American Realism at the ance and contributions to the officer and has served in museum in January. Smithsonian American Art discussions about and direc- Washington, D.C., Nepal and Previously, she served as Museum. She is the author tion of the Journal. n

AFSA Welcomes AFSA Governing Franny Raybaud as Board Meeting, Membership Coordinator April 21, 2021 Originally from the Lower East Side in Manhattan, Frances “Franny” Raybaud (they/them/theirs) is LCAD Award: The Governing Board unanimously excited to join the team at AFSA adopted the Awards and Plaques Committee rec- after a few years working with ommendation for AFSA’s 2021 Lifetime Contribu- service-disabled veterans and tions to American Diplomacy award. military families. AFSA Memorial Plaques: The Governing Board As a USAID aspirant with two Franny Raybaud approved the addition of two names to the virtual former peacekeeper parents now memorial plaque on AFSA’s website (afsa.org/virtual- in the United Nations Civil Service, Franny looks forward to afsa-memorial-plaque). serving AFSA’s almost 17,000 members across the globe. They Associate Member: The Governing Board approved have previous experience with the federal government as a 2017 the application of an associate AFSA member. Department of Defense Boren Scholar to Morocco. New AFSA Editorial Board Members: The Govern- Franny holds a bachelor’s degree in political science and ing Board approved two new members to serve on Arabic from Macaulay Honors College at Queens College-CUNY. the Editorial Board: Foreign Service Officer Bronwyn With a background in studying ethnic conflict and racial relations Llewellyn of USAID, and Jane Carpenter-Rock, the coupled with a passion for human rights, they are eager to learn acting director of the National Museum of American from others and lend some classic New Yorker humor to the Diplomacy and a Foreign Service officer with the Foreign Service community. State Department. n Franny lives in Washington, D.C., and loves learning lan- guages. They speak Arabic, Spanish and French. Mandarin Chinese is next on the list! n

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2021 51 AFSA NEWS

USAID Office of Security Briefing

Foreign Service officers are support USAID. They are as prevent counterintelligence guidance, office building familiar with Diplomatic follows. threats. security, armored vehicles, Security and with the • The Personnel Security • The USAID Command emergency communications Regional Security Office at Division grants security Center (AIDCC), which systems and security advice post. But how much do they clearances to USAID employ- includes 24/7 email and and assistance to USAID know about USAID’s own ees based on the results phone monitoring, com- disaster response teams Office of Security (SEC)? of completed background municates and responds to and to agency operations in John Vorhees, director of investigations. issues affecting the safety high-threat environments. SEC, offered an overview in • The Intelligence, Coun- and security of USAID “We are an email or a an April 6 Zoom call with 75 terintelligence, and Informa- personnel, facilities and phone call away. We are here AFSA members. tion Security Division (ICI) partners. to enable you to do your In the presentation, “Ses- provides a defensive coun- • The International jobs,” Vorhees emphasized. sion for Security,” Vorhees terintelligence capability. It Security Program provides “Call us before you need explained that SEC consists supports secure develop- supplemental resources to us. Reach out and ask us of four divisions, each of ment operations, informs Diplomatic Security to sup- questions you have about which has a unique mis- policy and educates employ- port USAID Missions. These security clearances, conduct sion and responsibilities to ees to recognize, report and include operational security or other issues.” n

52 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL AFSA NEWS

AFSA Webinar The Basics of Long-Term Care and Life Insurance

AFSA hosted “A View of Term insurance has the Long-Term Care and Life advantage of being relatively Insurance from the Private inexpensive, he said, like rent- Sector,” its third webinar of ing an apartment compared 2021 on retirement benefits, to buying a house. You sign a on April 13. Nearly 200 people lease and get a certain fixed attended the Zoom event. benefit that doesn’t change. The presenters were Stu- But when it expires after 15 art Seldowitz, who spent 28 or 20 years, it is entirely up to years in the Foreign Service the insurance company to set SCREEN CAPTURE SCREEN CAPTURE SCREEN before retiring in 2011, and the terms for renewal. Michael Gregson Stuart Seldowitz Michael Gregson. Term insurance is used for Seldowitz, now a New two main reasons, he said. Universal life insurance is does something different. It’s York Life Insurance Company Some people have limited a flexible product that can be not a one-size-fits-all situa- agent, talked about the pros resources and don’t want used for estate planning or tion.” The goals are to protect and cons of different kinds of to pay the higher cost of for special needs children, he assets and to make sure life insurance, how much life permanent insurance. Others said. family members don’t need to insurance is enough, and the might purchase it if they have become caregivers. strategies for using different a temporary need, such as Ins and Outs of People can buy coverage types of insurance to meet 15 more years to pay off their Long-Term Care for a specific number of years’ different needs. mortgage and want their Long-term care has worth of benefits, and a spe- Gregson, also with New spouse to be able to do so become more expensive cific amount of benefit. York Life and a long-term should something happen to over the years, Gregson said. On average, he said, care consultant, discussed one of them. People are living longer lives; women who receive long-term what long-term care covers Permanent insurance, in and as a result more people care benefits from New York and does not cover and how contrast, is like buying prop- are experiencing dementia Life use them for 3.7 years. it interacts with Medicare, erty, he said. It’s more expen- and other health problems For men, it is 2.5 years. That health insurance and social sive in the short-term. But like for longer periods of time. includes the range from home security. buying a home, people who And by the time people who care to nursing home care. buy permanent life insurance are now planning for long- Taking questions from Three Types of are building equity; also, the term care need it in a few the audience of nearly 200, Life Insurance premium is fixed over time. decades, the costs will be a Gregson said that Foreign Life insurance has a The policy also has a cash lot greater, he said. Service officers with a pen- simple goal, Seldowitz said: value, which you can withdraw In the New York City area, sion probably won’t qualify to help a family overcome the or borrow against to buy one year of home health care for Medicaid long-term impact of the loss of one of property, pay down debt— costs $52,000 on average, care. For people who retire the breadwinners. We all live whatever you want. he said, while a year in an abroad, most plans will cover in a world of uncertainty, and Permanent life insurance is assisted living facility costs about 100 days of care over- things can happen, he said, also not reachable by divorce $80,000, and a year in a seas. A hybrid life insurance/ adding that life insurance is or financial predators, he said, semi-private room in a skilled long-term care plan does not for everybody. The impor- and universities are prohib- nursing facility averages cover a year of long-term tant thing is to plan. ited from considering the $143,000. care overseas. He discussed three main cash value of life insurance “My advice is to educate Members can view video types of life insurance: term, when making decisions about yourself on what the options of the webinar at afsa.org/ permanent and universal. financial aid. are,” he said. “Everybody video. n

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2021 53 AFSA NEWS

FSGB 2020 Annual Report Cases Are Up for the Foreign Service Grievance Board

The Foreign Service of the board’s senior adviser granted relief while the times and reversed the Grievance Board is the and two annuitant members, case was pending. Two were decision once. Four cases sole independent grievance and delay in the appoint- dismissed on jurisdictional were settled or withdrawn; appeals body of the Foreign ment of five new board grounds. one was dismissed for lack Service and ensures the members, by then–Secre- The FSGB resolved eight of timeliness; and one was fullest measure of due tary of State Mike Pompeo. discipline cases in 2020, remanded to the agency to process for FS employees. (Secretary of State Antony half of which involved Visa await a decision by the Equal The Foreign Service Blinken reappointed the exit- Lookout Accountability viola- Employment Opportunity Grievance Board closed ing members and appointed tions. The FSGB upheld the Commission on parallel 66 cases in 2020. That’s the new members shortly agency’s discipline determi- issues. about the same as were after taking office this year.) nation in three of those VLA resolved in 2019, despite violation cases, while revers- Established in 1976 the pandemic, according A Look at the ing the agency’s letter of The FSGB was estab- to the FSGB’s 2020 annual 2020 Numbers reprimand in a fourth case. lished by Congress in report. At the same time, The FSGB closed 15 The board resolved two 1976 after years of AFSA the board received 64 new financial, eight discipline, 17 cases involving unwanted advocacy. Each member cases in 2020, 10 more than evaluation/performance and sexual contact, affirming is appointed by the Secre- it received in 2019. 16 separation cases, among the agency’s decision in one tary of State from a list of About two-thirds of board others, in 2020. case and partially reversing nominees jointly submitted members are experienced In these cases, the FSGB the agency’s decision in the by AFSA and the agencies Foreign Service annuitants affirmed the foreign affairs other. utilizing the Foreign Service who have served in the vari- agency decision 42 percent The FSGB closed 16 personnel system. Terms of ous foreign affairs agencies, of the time, while it reversed cases involving separation office are two years, subject and about one-third are agency decisions nine per- for cause, “time in class” to renewal. legal professionals, primarily cent of the time. expiration or denial of Visit afsa.org/grievance- retired judges, lawyers and Twenty-four percent of tenure. In four cases, the guidance to learn more arbitrators. cases were settled, while board affirmed the agency’s about common types of AFSA’s Labor Manage- the FSGB partially affirmed decision, while in five cases, grievances and about the ment staff assist members and partly reversed agency it reversed the decision. grievance process. with agency-level grievances, decisions in eight percent of Five cases were settled or The annual report as well as with appeals to cases. withdrawn before the board features descriptions of the FSGB. Currently, LM In 2020, the FSGB reached a decision, and numerous cases, without is assisting members with resolved 17 cases in which two were dismissed in their naming complainants. Visit 281 grievances at either the employees claimed errors entirety. fsgb.gov to learn more about agency or board level. in Employee Evaluation The board resolved 15 the board and to read the full The person filing the Reports and other aspects cases in 2020 involving annual report. n grievance has the burden of the Official Performance financial claims. Issues of proof in all cases except Folder. In six decisions, included debts resulting where the agency in ques- the relevant foreign affairs from overpayment by the tion is trying to take dis- agency was affirmed and in agency; per diem disputes; ciplinary action. In those three decisions, the agency initial salary determination; cases, the agency has the was reversed. discriminatory fine for dam- burden of proof. Five cases were settled ages; and disability retire- Staffing of the FSGB was and withdrawn, while one ment calculations. complicated in 2020 by was dismissed as moot The FSGB affirmed the delay in the reappointment after the agency voluntary agency’s decision eight

54 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL AFSA NEWS

Boosting AFSA’s Social Media Presence

Social media engagement AFSA members can help is a vital element of AFSA’s us. You can follow and repost public outreach strategy. It’s the FS stories, event infor- a useful tool to extend our mation and articles on social reach beyond our traditional media. Share our messages audience to broaden the and invites with friends and domestic constituency for online communities! the U.S. Foreign Service. Not yet active on social By increasing our activ- media? We can help! See ity on social media, we raise AFSA’s social media toolkit AFSA’s profile and name for ideas and sample mes- recognition, which is, in sages: it’s on the member turn, critical to our success outreach resources page: in introducing the Foreign afsa.org/first-line-defense. Service to new audiences Reposting content is an easy throughout the country. one-click process. Platforms such as Twitter With your help, we can and Facebook allow us to reach many more people easily connect and share throughout the United States information with our mem- to let them know about the bers and current partners, as important and varied work well as future partners and of the Foreign Service and supporters. its role in keeping America More and more people are prosperous and secure. looking to social media to Please start by following stay updated on events and us on Twitter (@afsatweets) latest developments, and we and Facebook (facebook. want to capitalize on that. com/afsapage). We have been working to As always, if you have develop engaging messages, any questions about our interesting content and com- outreach efforts or, specifi- pelling graphics, and over cally, about our social media the course of the last three engagement, please contact months, have already seen AFSA Strategic Communica- some good results in the tions and Outreach Manager form of more followers and Nadja Ruzica at ruzica@afsa. more engagement with our org. n content. For example, from January 1 to April 1, we saw a five percent increase in Twitter followers. On Face- book, we saw the engage- ment rate on our posts increase from three percent to nine percent.

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2021 55

EDUCATION SUPPLEMENT

THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 On FS Kids TIPS AND THOUGHTS

FS children face unique challenges in the best of times. How are they faring during the pandemic?

BY REBECCA GRAPPO

ooks will be written, and Ph.D. are dependents of American diplomats theses will be defended, about the in more than 230 posts around the Bimpact of COVID-19 on society. world. Unless they were infants and But few will probably ever interview, let blissfully unaware of what was happen- alone study, one group of people: the ing, all of them have been affected. children of the Foreign Service. Some families left posts under Members of the Foreign Service are authorized or ordered departure; others highly trained professionals who take on stayed throughout the pandemic, but worldwide assignments and serve cou- remained locked in their homes, unable rageously amid threats of war, terrorism, to go out for months at a time. To say natural disasters—even pandemics. Let’s that it played out differently according take a look at how their children fare. to the country would be an understate- Rebecca Grappo, M.Ed., ment; experiencing the pandemic in has been connected to the The Pandemic Strikes Sweden was not the same as experienc- Department of State for Not many people could have imag- ing it in Brazil or Manila. But no matter 35 years, as both a former ined the seismic impact a global pan- where they were posted, no one has had employee and Foreign demic would have on their professional it easy. Service family member. She is the founder of or personal lives—and especially those Schools began to shut down amid RNG International Educational Consultants, of their children. Far-reaching, this the growing crisis in March 2020. Stu- LLC, which specializes in helping students pandemic has affected just about every dents anticipated being back at school around the world with the college applica- single person on the planet. after spring break, only to find that tion process as well as boarding school and It caused a global diaspora of Foreign they couldn’t return for the rest of the therapeutic placements. Service families. About 13,000 children academic year. It would be impossible

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2021 57 EDUCATION SUPPLEMENT

It would be impossible to quantify the in the international school world were all experiencing “the washing machine many interrupted rites of passage and of transition” at the same time their milestones missed. students and families were. FS kids who were stateside at the start of the pandemic endured the sudden scramble to figure out how to put entire to quantify the many interrupted rites of “The Washing Machine educational systems online, a heroic passage and milestones missed. of Transition” effort by teachers and administrators. In international schools, many stu- For many Foreign Service kids, there Students were heroic as well, as they dents moved back to the United States, was no chance to say goodbye at the end struggled to adapt and faced canceled unexpectedly, or on to new countries. of the school year, leading to a tremen- games, proms, performances and other Those who did not move, the “stayers”— dous sense of loss without closure. much-anticipated events. a term coined by child psychologist What’s more, few students and families Many counseling professionals were Dr. Doug Ota, who studies attachment possessed the language to talk about concerned, though, about the students’ in international school transitions—had transition. loss of attachment to those in a school their struggles, too, as they witnessed As one international school coun- community whose role is to help kids their friends and teachers suddenly selor commented in a recent webinar for feel safe and secure. Such a sudden depart, leaving them behind. school personnel, those personnel living transition from what was considered

58 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL “normal” can expose the strengths and about other losses in academic achieve- greater anxiety about the college appli- weaknesses of a school community, as ment. Not only were there lost learning cation process among many students well as be a factor in a child’s or adoles- opportunities, but students who struggle and their parents. cent’s resiliency. with executive functioning or other Perhaps the greatest negative impact, Many boarding schools were able to learning differences have faced addi- however, was on the students who create safe bubbles through quarantin- tional challenges staying on track. were caught moving from Country A to ing, and those students had a relatively The structure and extra support they Country B, at times with an indefinite normal year. Yet many still felt the have depended on have not always been evacuation stop in the U.S. It has not disruption, and could not reunite with available through Zoom at the level only been extremely difficult for these their families overseas (as of this writing, needed, leading to learning gaps. Even students to catch up academically—and some have been separated from their something as seemingly mundane as feel caught up—but also to make new families for more than a year now), or internet connectivity, which can vary friends and feel connected to the new faced forced quarantines on return to widely based on where one lives, made school community. campus. it difficult for some families to be online Nevertheless, some students have for school and work remotely all at the enjoyed learning at their own pace Academic Impact same time. and not feeling the stress of rushing to In addition to the emotional costs, Standardized tests such as the school or enduring long bus or taxi rides many students and families have SAT, and even AP and IB exams, were across traffic-clogged cities. One parent reported that the last year has brought affected, and this resulted in even reported her son was “living his best life!”

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2021 59 EDUCATION SUPPLEMENT

Parents Talk About with a severe COVID-19 situation meant can come with Foreign Service life, and the Loss of Connection this stage effectively did not happen.” naturally wonder if their kids are going to As one parent puts it: “It’s difficult And yet another parent serving in be OK. Here are a few tips that other FS enough to be a teen moving from a a country that has been particularly parents and experts have offered. comfortable and secure place, where you hard-hit writes: “I think for us and many Communicate, empathize and have a great group of friends and you people, the hardest thing was dealing validate your children’s feelings and know your surroundings well, to a place with unknown health risks and social concerns. Model for your children that that is not as comfortable or as secure. distancing requirements placed upon it is OK to be sad and reassure them But then add COVID-19 where the us by the pandemic. The local kids and you are there for them. Be wary of toxic opportunities for kids to build relation- their parents are much more permissive positivity—i.e., being overly positive ships with other kids in the new post is regarding staying out late, social distanc- without acknowledging the difficulty. almost completely absent. I think that is ing, etc., than we are. Thus, our son Ruth Van Reken, co-author of Third the biggest impact COVID-19 has had.” continues to struggle with his conserva- Culture Kids: Growing Up Among Worlds, Another parent shares: “PCSing tive parents.” 3rd ed. (Nicholas Brealey, 2017), says [moving to a new post] is challenging it is important to offer comfort before always, and one of the big priorities Recommendations for Parents encouragement. Acknowledge the pain, arriving in a new post for both adults and Many parents remain anxious about loss and disappointment of the past year kids is making new friends and finding the cumulative effect of both the pan- so that they feel seen. Then the words of community. Transitioning to a new post demic and the additional stressors that encouragement can follow.

60 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL Provide the language your children sufficient quality sleep, proper nutrition Recommendations for and teens need to describe their emo- and exercise—and maintain structure in the Department of State tions and what’s going on. An excellent daily life. Some parents have also offered their book for elementary-age children is Be creative in celebrating rituals at suggestions for how the department can Emotional Resilience and the Expat Child home and recognizing milestones. These better support families during this time. by Julia Simens (Summertime, 2011). may become some of your most cher- Find ways to support parents. Use your school counseling team ished memories. Whether employees or not, all parents as a resource. Communicate with the If the plan changes, allow your chil- are juggling a lot right now. It might be school counselor if you are encounter- dren to deviate from their intended path, working across time zones, fulfilling ing difficulty at home. Ask if they have if needed. It might be healthy to reas- professional obligations while simulta- resources for helping to develop social- sess the plan. Does that mean switching neously needing to help (multiple) kids emotional intelligence and resilience. schools? Taking a gap year? Changing with online learning. Single parents, What can you reinforce at home? The their college plans? Help them to think it in particular, have shouldered huge International School Counselor Asso- through and then offer support. responsibilities. ciation has been developing resources, Help your kids to see the future and The Department of State Standard- so encourage your school to become a know that this period is not going to last ized Regulations (DSSR) was written member if it has not already. forever. Encourage them to think and for “normal” times, not a pandemic. Encourage your children to plan for future events such as travel, col- When possible, give the most generous practice the pillars of good health— lege, and time with loved ones. possible interpretation to a regulation

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2021 61 EDUCATION SUPPLEMENT

if it will help to support students and competency” can be a great predictor of their families. Find a way to say yes, and flexibility and tenacity in young people. if you can’t, then explore and act on how That is, do they have hobbies and to change the regulation. interests they can pursue? Where do Travel allowance. Parents who send they excel? Do they have a portable skill their children back to boarding school or talent that allows them to connect face the decision to have their children with others? Is there a way to translate travel solo, or (since all are not able to their favorite extracurricular activity travel alone) accompany them. Board- into something that works even in a ing schools now have new quarantine pandemic? requirements, at times requiring a hotel Stories abound of FS students who stay off-campus. There is no allowance have led clubs and organizations in for this. schools, performed theater and musical Education allowance. If families ensembles online, created studio art determine it is in the best interest of projects, engaged in service projects their child to repeat a year because of and political activism, raised money the learning difficulties accrued during for those in need, volunteered, stepped the pandemic, find a way for the educa- up to help out family members, took tion allowance to cover it. Parents and courses online, learned a new skill, got their children do not make such deci- paying jobs or internships—and more. sions lightly—trust them. Though the pandemic created per- sonal challenges our kids have never Stories of Resilience experienced before, the way so many Dr. Robert Brooks, a psychologist have persevered and risen to the occa- who has spent his career researching sion is nothing short of inspirational. n resilience in kids, states that “islands of

RESOURCES

Third Culture Kids: Growing Up Among Worlds By David C. Pollock and Ruth E. Van Reken Raising Global Teens: A Practical Handbook for Parenting in the 21st Century By Dr. Anisha Abraham Emotional Resilience and the Expat Child: Practical Storytelling Techniques That Will Strengthen the Global Family By Julia Simens Raising Kids in the Foreign Service By Associates of the American Foreign Service Worldwide (Author), Leah Morefield Evans (Editor) The Emotionally Resilient Expat: Engage, Adapt and Thrive Across Cultures By Linda A. Janssen “Promoting Your Child’s Emotional Health,” The Foreign Service Journal, June 2011, Semiannual School Supplement, p. 73. International School Counselor Association Website: https://iscainfo.com Yale Center for Emotional Intelligence: https://www.ycei.org American School Counselor Association: https://www.schoolcounselor.org

62 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL EXCERPT FROM THE DECEMBER 2020 FSJ EDUCATION SUPPLEMENT Leaving Campus Behind BY SEAMUS GORMAN

or me, the beginning of March is when COVID-19 Ftransitioned from a frighten- ing story in the news to an event with profound personal conse- quences… I’m a Foreign Service family member, and the rest of my fam- ily was about 5,000 miles away, in Russia. Because of COVID-19 travel bans, getting back there would be extremely difficult—and I wasn’t even sure whether to make the attempt.… Ultimately, I decided that the worst case, if I got very sick, would be much easier to handle if I were with my family in Moscow. My State Department connection cre- ated a difficult situation because I was separated from my family. But strangely, it also provided a solution: Eventually, through the Operational Medicine program I was able to get on an OpMed flight back to Moscow. And after a 14-day quarantine, during which I did not write this essay as I’d planned, I was finally reunited with my family... My situation isn’t easy—I’m away from close friends and had to put my college career on hold. But I realize I am also extremely fortunate to have the opportuni- ties that being connected to the State Department has given me. I’m living in my parents’ base- ment, yes, but it’s a pretty inter- esting place to be.

Seamus Gorman is a Foreign Service family member who has lived in Moscow, Yerevan, Almaty, Beijing, Amman and Northern Virginia. He is currently a junior at James Madison University.

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2021 63 EDUCATION AT A GLANCE Go to our webpage at www.afsa.org/education.

Gender International Holiday Annual Tuition, Page Percent Percent Levels TABS common Accept Miles to School Enrollment Distribution AP/IBu Students Break Room & Board Number Boarding Int’l. Offered application ADD/LDuu Int’l. Airport M/F Orientation Coverageuuu (US $)

n ELEMENTARY/JUNIOR/SENIOR HIGH

Fairfax Christian 72 330 50/50 15 20 PK-12 AP N Limited 3 Y Y 60,000- School 67,620abdefg

Fay School 71 475 50/50 32 17 K-9 NA Y Limited 30 Y Limited 70,420- 77,480b

Garrison Forest 69 520 All Girls 30 8 PK-12 AP N Limited 20 Y N 62,015- School 66,810b

Ross School 56 360 50/50 45 47 PK-12, PG AP N Limited 90 Y Limited 82,215abe

Stuart Hall School 4 326 52/48 24 23 PK-12 AP Y Y 143 Y Y 55,000bd

n JUNIOR HIGH/SENIOR HIGH

Grier School 61 275 All Girls 85 40 7-12 AP Y Y 120 Y Limited 57,900ad

New England 62 64 NA NA NA 9-12 NA N Y 35 Y Y 42,500bdef Innovation Academy

Oak Hill Academy 73 140 60/40 100 10 8-12 AP Y Y 90 Y N 36,900ab

St. Margaret’s 4 101 All Girls 70 22 8-12, PG AP Y Y 50 y Y 42,240- School 52,250abd

Wilbraham & 75 415 56/44 49 30 6-PG AP Y Y 28 Y Limited 62,300b Monson Academy

n SENIOR HIGH

Besant Hill School 63 100 50/50 80 50 9-12, PG AP Y Y 90 Y N 57,750- of Happy Valley 64,155bde

Christchurch 66, BC 210 60/40 70 25 9-12 AP Y Y 50 Y Y 55,900- School 56,900d

EF Academy 59 450 53/47 98 95 9-12 IB N Limited 40.5 Y Limited 58,500a New York

Kimball Union 60 340 55/45 75 25 9-12, PG AP Y Y 125 Y Limited 68,700 Academy

The Madeira 77 320 All Girls 51 15 9-12 AP Y Limited 16 N N 64,500be School

New Hampton 75 336 55/45 75 20 9-12, PG AP/IB Y Y 95 Y Limited 64,700b School

St. Timothy’s 60 175 All Girls 70 30 9-12, PG IB Y Limited 20 Y N 35,800- School 62,900bde

n OVERSEAS

American Overseas 63 560 50/50 NA 70 PK-12 AP/IB N Y 20 Y Y 12,460- School Rome 32,923bc

Berlin Brandenburg 58 720 50/50 10 70 K-12 IB N Y 22 Y N 48,000c International School

Carlucci American 70 689 48/52 NA 78 PK-12 IB N Limited 18 Y N 10,490- International School 22,232abc of Lisbon

EF Academy Oxford 59 185 42/58 100 100 11-12 IB N N 48 Y Limited 56,000ac

Frankfurt 77 1,800 50/50 NA 80 K-12 IB N Limited 12 Y N 28,760bc International School

John F. Kennedy 76 1,617 50/50 NA 47 K-12 AP N Limited 15 Y N None School Berlin

uAdvanced Placement/International Baccalaureate uuAttention Deficit Disorder/Learning Disabilities uuu Dec. 25-Jan. 1 NA, Not applicable BC, Back Cover IBC, Inside Back Cover a Sibling discount b Financial aid available c Dollar value subject to exchange rate dAid for federal employees e Gap year f Need-blind admissions; will meet full financial need g Host families

64 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL

EDUCATION AT A GLANCE Go to our webpage at www.afsa.org/education.

Gender International Holiday Annual Tuition, Page Percent Percent Levels TABS common Accept Miles to School Enrollment Distribution AP/IBu Students Break Room & Board Number Boarding Int’l. Offered application ADD/LDuu Int’l. Airport M/F Orientation Coverageuuu (US $)

n OVERSEAS (CONTINUED)

Leysin American 69 300 50/50 100 85 7-12, PG AP/IB N Limited 75 Y N 99,000abd School in Switzerland

St. Stephen’s School 73 294 47/53 15 64 9-12, PG AP/IB N Y 12 Y N 44,380b

TASIS 67 620 50/50 27 41 Pre PK-12 AP/IB N Limited 8 Y N 68,000bcd The American School in England

n SPECIAL NEEDS

The Gow School 72 140 80/20 93 10 6-12, PG NA N Y 30 N Limited 72,500b

The Lab School 65 375 59/41 NA 1 1-12 NA N Y 26 Y N 54,000b of Washington

n DISTANCE LEARNING

ASU Prep Digital 71 4,000 50/50 NA 5 K-12 NA N NA NA Y Y 0-7,200

TTU-K-12 77 1,970 48/52 NA 54 K-12 AP N Limited NA N NA 3,000- (Texas Tech) 4,600

n HIGHER EDUCATION

ASU Thunderbird IBC 388 53/47 13 45 NA NA NA NA 19 Y Y 70,000- School of Global 110,000b Management

n OTHER

AAFSW 79 Associates of the American Foreign Service Worldwide: Publisher of Raising Kids in the Foreign Service. A volunteer organization that supports Foreign Service employees, spouses, partners and members of household. Visit www.aafsw.org; FSHub.org.

FLO 79 F amily Liaison Office: Information and resources for Foreign Service families. Contact [email protected].

FSYF 78 Foreign Service Youth Foundation: A support network for U.S. Foreign Service youth worldwide. Go to www.fsyf.org.

uAdvanced Placement/International Baccalaureate uuAttention Deficit Disorder/Learning Disabilities uuu Dec. 25-Jan. 1 NA, Not applicable BC, Back Cover IBC, Inside Back Cover a Sibling discount b Financial aid available c Dollar value subject to exchange rate dAid for federal employees e Gap year f Need-blind admissions; will meet full financial need g Host families

66 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL

EDUCATION SUPPLEMENT

WHAT’S NEW WITH Special Education Allowances? The Family Liaison Office Talks with the Office of Child and Family Programs

BY CHARLOTTE LARSEN

idding on one’s next assignment ioral health and special educational needs better serve all FS employees under chief- can be a daunting task for any For- are identified and appropriately assessed. of-mission authority and their families. Beign Service family. It can be even The goal is to have an effective treatment In April, as education and youth pro- more complex when education options in and education plan established in advance gram officer of the Family Liaison Office, I overseas settings for children with special of and during overseas assignments. conducted a written interview with Deputy needs are a part of that decision. Once the need for special education Chief Medical Officer for Mental Health The State Department’s Office of Child services is determined, families can apply Programs Charles J. Lilly, M.D., of the State and Family Programs (known as CFP) for the Special Needs Education Allowance Department’s Bureau of Medical Services. under the Bureau of Medical Services (known as SNEA). In the past, parents have We discussed new staffing and procedures (MED) works together with parents and faced challenges with this process; thanks in support of the Special Needs Education overseas MED medical staff members to to their advocacy, the department has Allowance. ensure children’s psychological, behav- put in place new procedures and updated —Charlotte Larsen, FLO guidance to improve application process- Charlotte Larsen, who has ing time, added staffing with geographi- It Takes a Team been a Foreign Service family cal responsibilities, improved electronic Charlotte Larsen, FLO: The CFP team member at six overseas posts reimbursement procedures and adopted a has recently expanded. Can you tell us over the last 25 years, joined new appeals process. about the team and their roles? the Family Liaison Office as The Bureau of Global Talent Manage- Dr. Charles J. Lilly, MED: The MED education and youth program officer in 2020. ment’s Family Liaison Office’s education CFP team currently consists of one She served previously as a global employ- and youth team (E&Y) works closely with part-time child psychiatrist, two clinical ment adviser and a community liaison office CFP and can assist parents in navigating psychologists, one education program coordinator in Asia and Europe and, prior the SNEA process. Recently, FLO spoke specialist, one social worker, a nurse to joining State, taught in international and with CFP to discuss available resources, liaison and administrative support. The Department of Defense schools. previous challenges and new procedures to clinical psychologists, education program

68 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2021 69 EDUCATION SUPPLEMENT

specialist and social worker have all been CFP: Through the combination of staff the nurse liaison play in assisting families assigned geographic regions to support attrition and the hiring freeze that began in through the SNEA process? development of a knowledge base of avail- 2016, CFP had dwindled to one full-time CFP: The new nurse liaison position is able resources in their respective regions. social worker and one part-time psychia- intended as a primary point of contact for The nurse liaison and education trist. During this period, the program con- clinicians and families currently serv- specialist positions were new for CFP in tinued to receive a similar number of SNEA ing or planning to serve overseas. Prior 2020. The education specialist has brought applications and educational and mental to this, communication with CFP had a wealth of knowledge and experience health clearance consultation requests. been much more disparate. The nurse regarding special educational programs This led to significant processing delays liaison position has allowed CFP to work and services in U.S. public school systems. and related dissatisfaction. While the staff- directly with families, helping them to The nurse liaison provides a primary point ing issues caused significant problems, understand the SNEA process and obtain of contact for all referrals and SNEA appli- they also gave CFP the opportunity to required support documentation, thus cations, and will help CFP focus on how reevaluate how the program was operat- streamlining the process. we can best serve the needs of families ing and to build a more diverse team of overseas. professionals. FLO: How does CFP look at infor- mation parents obtain from their own FLO: What was the impetus for the FLO: You mentioned the addition of research? For example, if a parent finds expansion? the “nurse liaison.” What specific role will a school, therapist or other resource at a

CAISL

70 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2021 71 EDUCATION SUPPLEMENT

post that is not currently on CFP’s radar, the qualifications of any clinicians or our CFP clinicians will have the opportu- will CFP consider that information in capacities of schools overseas to manage nity to meet school officials and provide approving the post or allowing the the children’s needs. education and guidance regarding CFP parent to make use of those services? Because of the wide variability in and SNEA funding to schools, health units CFP: We always welcome the involve- expertise and capacity of some of these and embassy communities overseas. ment of parents in helping us make the resources overseas, we may not be able to most informed clearance recommenda- approve them for use in every case. Simplifying Things tions or SNEA authorizations for their FLO: I understand that the SNEA refer- children. This includes the family provid- FLO: The clinicians now have regional ral process was recently simplified. How ing the names, credentials and contact responsibilities that mirror those of the will this benefit FS families? information for schools, therapists or REOs from the Department of State’s CFP: The CFP nurse liaison has been other resources from their own research. Office of Overseas Schools. What is the central to improving our processes by In collaboration with our overseas benefit of this? addressing all requests and inquiries, medical staff, including regional medical CFP: The regional assignments will following up with families, assisting officers (RMOs), regional medical officer allow the CFP clinicians to develop a with gathering required documentation, psychiatrists (RMO/Ps), other health much deeper understanding of resources assigning SNEA cases for review when all care providers and the Office of Over- in each region and work more closely the documentation has been submitted, seas Schools’ regional education officers with their counterparts in the OOS. We monitoring and tracking any incomplete (REOs), we will then seek to understand hope that when travel restrictions relax, requests, and elevating any inquiries to

72 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2021 73 EDUCATION SUPPLEMENT U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE OF DEPARTMENT U.S. The MED/CFP team. From left, Dr. Charles Lilly, Michele Schurtz, Nancy Kelly, Dr. Barbara George and Monique Perry. Not pictured: Dr. Ruth Imershein, Emili Kuchler, Dr. Tera Ford and Salma Zaki.

the MED/CFP SNEA adjudicators when RMO/P to gather required documentation further guidance is necessary. prior to submitting the SNEA referral. When families identify a problem The CFP nurse liaison then works or potential problem with a child’s directly with families to assist in gather- education while overseas, CFP strongly ing required documentation. encourages them to discuss this with the embassy health unit staff, who will FLO: What is being done to reduce then schedule an appointment with the the lengthy list of required paperwork for RMO/P. If, through that discussion, SNEA parents? Are there other ways to simplify seems an option, we have simplified the things, particularly for those who have RMO/P referral process. already established long-term needs for In the new process, we only ask for their children in the past? basic eligibility criteria as described in CFP: CFP recognizes this is a problem, the Individuals with Disabilities Educa- and we are working to streamline the tion Improvement Act of 2004. We specif- clearance consultation and SNEA applica- ically ask, “Does the child have an actual tion processes to make them more efficient or suspected diagnosis in one of the 13 and easier for our families. Families do not categories defined by the statute; and need to forward duplicate documentation if so, how does the diagnosis adversely for consideration in clearance and SNEA affect the child’s progress in school?” processes. We actively try to anticipate Additionally, we want to understand future needs and work with parents ahead what, if any, school interventions or of time to identify what documentation supports have been helpful or are being will be required to avoid a difficult rush to requested. obtain required information. The simplification of the SNEA referral If families have questions regarding the process identifies children with needs and clearance referral and SNEA application gets their families in contact with CFP as processes, or are having difficulty obtain- quickly as possible, rather than waiting ing requested information, please notify for parents, schools, clinicians and the the CFP team at [email protected].

74 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL FLO: What is being done to ensure that information resources on the State Department’s intranet site reflect the latest guidance? CFP: The CFP team recently updated the DoS intranet site and are in the process of updating the internet site. We anticipate the CFP internet site will be available by early summer. We continue to actively collaborate with the Office of Overseas Schools, Family Liaison Office, the Office of Allowances, and our overseas medical teams to define and present the most up-to-date information possible in a way that will be most useful.

FLO: How does CFP work with the Office of Overseas Schools? CFP: CFP meets monthly with OOS to exchange information on related con- cerns. This has helped CFP clinicians develop a more detailed understanding of the overseas environment. The recent pandemic highlighted the fragility of some of the resources we relied on in some overseas environ- ments that quickly became unavailable as many schools saw dramatic reduc- tions in enrollment. The OOS maintains much closer and more frequent contact with these schools and was able to com- municate with CFP as these changes were occurring. Through their frequent contact with embassy communities and families serving or planning to serve overseas, OOS also brings to CFP many of the concerns and questions that they receive regarding our services. The REOs’ educational expertise, firsthand knowledge of their regions and collabo- ration with schools overseas continue to be fundamental in determining post resource capabilities for special educa- tion.

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2021 75 EDUCATION SUPPLEMENT

For additional information, visit the curriculum. Examples of these services FLO: Timely responses are paramount OOS website or email OverseasSchools@ include speech and language therapy, for families while bidding. What can state.gov. occupational therapy and specialized families realistically expect from your educational instruction, among others. office in terms of getting their inquiries The Nitty-Gritty The services must be defined as answered? FLO: What are the basic eligibility required in the IEP; and the IEP must CFP: When families contact the criteria for a student to receive SNEA? detail the metrics used to evaluate the CFP mailbox, [email protected], they CFP: The basic eligibility criteria child’s progress in the various deficien- receive a response within five business include a medical diagnosis or learning cies the services are intended to address. days. With SNEA applications, the nurse disability that has a significant impact Many schools overseas do not have expe- liaison will maintain communication on the child’s ability to access a general rience developing a detailed IEP. CFP with families until required documen- education curriculum. recognizes this and will provide guidance tation is compiled. The case is then These are not the only criteria, how- to families when equivalent documenta- assigned to one of the CFP specialists to ever. As per the Individuals with Disabili- tion is needed. complete adjudication. ties Education Improvement Act of 2004, To grant SNEA, CFP must under- Processing times vary based primar- on which we base CFP processes, we also stand what services are required, how ily on the time required to compile the require the child to have an individual- the school and external specialists will necessary documentation. Possible ized education plan (IEP), which details provide the services, and how progress delays may occur because of incomplete services required to access the general will be measured. documentation, pending identification

76 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2021 77 EDUCATION SUPPLEMENT

of external providers, or if it is not clear CFP: Beginning in 2020, CFP, in col- cost above tuition for the first half of the which requested services will be pro- laboration with the Office of Allowances, school year. vided at extra cost (above basic tuition). developed a partial-year services cable. Once the new or updated plan is cre- Once the case is assigned to a CFP The partial-year cable is an option fami- ated, families forward this information to clinician to complete adjudication, the lies can choose that allows for continued CFP, and our specialists review and then family can expect a response within two reimbursement of required services amend the cable to reflect the eligible to four weeks. This timeline varies based defined in the learning plan from the services and supports described for the on the complexity and construction of a prior school year when there is a delay remainder of the school year. complete application. in developing and receiving an updated Now that we are fully staffed, we hope learning plan for the current year. FLO: Can you tell me more about the to be able to assess response times more Some of our FS families have selected new E2 reimbursement process for SNEA accurately and identify which aspects of this option when moving to a new post, claims? Why was it created? the process require the most time. Fami- or if the current school is delayed in CFP: The E2 Local Travel module in lies are encouraged to contact CFP with developing an updated learning plan for the E2 travel system allows employees questions or problems, including delays the current school year. to scan and upload their paid receipts in obtaining requested documentation. All partial-year SNEA cables will for SNEA-eligible services and submit cover school tuition for the full school these for reimbursement. The new FLO: What is the difference between a year and will list SNEA-authorized edu- SNEA voucher process centralizes the partial- and a full-year SNEA cable? cationally required services that are at initial “approver” role for reimburse-

78 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL ment claims to the CFP clinicians who CFP: MED established a SNEA vote, and their recommendations are authored the cables detailing SNEA- appeals process in 2020. When a fam- presented to MED’s chief medical officer eligible services and expenses, thus ily receives an adverse SNEA decision who issues a final determination. The increasing the efficiency of the process. (either complete or partial denial of MRP chair then notifies the family. Using E2 in this way also provides requested services), they are informed of For More Information. When families much greater privacy and the appeals process. families begin the process of navigating control over a reimbursement process If desired, the family requests to SNEA, FLO wants them to have a clear that previously involved much more begin the appeals process by contacting idea of how things work and where to go interaction with nonclinicians. The the Medical Review Panel chair. The fam- for answers. We encourage anyone with claims will first be routed to MED/CFP ily provides a detailed, written descrip- additional questions to reach out directly for review and approval; then to the post tion of the reasons for appeal to the MRP to the CFP team and to FLO for contin- finance office for fiscal data and veri- chair, who passes this information to the ued support and resources. fication of funds under the allowance; panel members, including two overseas Contact the FLO E&Y team at and finally, to the post support unit for RMO/Ps and one domestic or overseas [email protected], by certification. RMO who have not had any prior contact phone at (202) 647-1076 or online at with or direct knowledge of the case. www.state.gov/flo/education. FLO: Is there a formal appeals pro- A CFP specialist presents the case to Families may find it helpful to read cess? How do families appeal a SNEA the panel and answers any questions through the 3 FAM 3280 SNEA and the denial? members have. Panel members then DSSR 271 Education Allowance. n

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2021 79 BOOKS

Through a Journalist’s ticular, on the thinking stand the health and prospects of the Eyes of then–Soviet Premier Soviet state. Nikita Khrushchev, Kalb personally believed that the Assignment Russia: Becoming a whom Kalb had met alliance between the two communist Foreign Correspondent in the during an assignment superpowers—China and the USSR— Crucible of the Cold War as a translator to the was unraveling. Both countries, he Marvin Kalb, Brookings Institution Press, U.S. embassy in Moscow. believed, “were guided primarily by their 2021, $24.99/hardcover, e-book available, The relationship of the United States national needs, which led inexorably to 352 pages. and the USSR during the 1950s, and the differing interpretations of communist danger of a nuclear confrontation, made ideology.” He saw the upcoming split long Reviewed by Eileen A. Malloy Kalb’s perspective invaluable to CBS. before key players in the White House and Readers who came of age in the late 1990s the Department of State. Marvin Kalb has written a memoir that or later may find Kalb’s description of the One of the more remarkable scenes is difficult for the reader to resist binge- USSR as being of “burning contemporary Kalb witnessed was the unofficial funeral reading straight to the end. I had expected relevance” a bit overdramatic. But those for Boris Pasternak, author of Doctor to find myself at home with this book, of us who grew up in the 1950s and ’60s— Zhivago. Kalb was one of the few, if not sharing with the author a longtime fascina- and can remember practicing drills for a the only, Western journalists to attend tion with Russia, and I looked forward to seeing Moscow in all its 1950s Soviet glory One of the more remarkable scenes Kalb through the eyes of a young journalist. Assignment Russia was that and more. witnessed was the unofficial funeral for Particularly fascinating were Kalb’s insights Boris Pasternak, author of Doctor Zhivago. into the changing world of news journal- ism, from the time when radio was king to possible nuclear attack—will agree with his the Peredelkino event. He filmed the the early days of television news’ ascen- assessment. mourners, observing those artists and dency. Before he could be a successful Eventually Kalb got his coveted assign- writers brave enough to ignore the Soviet foreign correspondent, he had to learn ment to Moscow, just in time to represent government’s attempts to keep people how to be a journalist. CBS at the ill-fated Paris Summit on the away from the funeral, including the poet Recruited by Edward R. Murrow— Berlin crisis. Kalb’s reporting on his one- Voznesensky, and watched the contrasting acknowledged as the best of his day— on-one discussions with Khrushchev early behaviors of Pasternak’s girlfriend and his Kalb lived and breathed Murrow’s mantra on the morning of the summit gives the wife. Makes one wish to have been a fly on that “a reporter’s job was not to make reader a wonderful sense of Khrushchev’s the wall! news, but to cover it—with honesty and propaganda approach to the 1960 U-2 I very much enjoyed Assignment Rus- humility, with fairness and dignity.” The shootdown fiasco. sia and look forward to the next in Kalb’s book details his early work at CBS in radio While we already have access to a num- series of memoirs. Into his 90s now, he has news, his first exposure to production of a ber of sources describing President Dwight a great story to share. television documentary, and his deter- Eisenhower’s thinking on the impact of the mined efforts to become the recognized shooting down of the U-2, most recently Eileen Anne Malloy, a career Foreign Service Soviet expert at CBS. in Susan Eisenhower’s 2020 book, How officer from 1978 to 2008, served in the U.K., Along the way, Kalb worked with, sup- Ike Led, firsthand reporting on the Soviet Canada, Ireland, Australia, Russia, Turk- ported and admired journalists such as leader’s thinking is much less accessible. menistan, Ukraine and Washington, D.C., Walter Cronkite—the man who ultimately Once on the ground in Moscow, Kalb where she held multiple assignments. The U.S. became the most trusted journalist in and his wife, both fluent Russian speakers, ambassador to the Kyrgyz Republic from 1994 America. Kalb proved his worth by offering took every opportunity to talk with Soviet to 1997, she was appointed senior adviser on CBS’ star journalists background informa- citizens, from high-level bureaucrats to Russia and the former Soviet Union for Energy tion on the USSR, in general, and, in par- lowly taxi drivers, in an effort to under- Secretary Bill Richardson in 1999.

80 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL Remembering a Bush, then entering Republican ing the case, traveled some Power Broker politics. The authors make clear 100,000 miles crisscrossing that this is the turning point in the globe for meetings with The Man Who Ran Washington: which Baker, emulating his friend more than 200 leaders and The Life and Times of James A. Baker III Bush, became overtly ambitious foreign ministers. Peter Baker and Susan Glasser, Doubleday, and began to disregard his father’s Baker’s incisive thinking and self-dis- 2020, $35/hardcover, e-book available, stentorian advice to “keep out of politics.” cipline in conjunction with his support for 720 pages. Years later and with considerable irony, bipartisan consultation, policy planning Baker tapped into this fatherly admoni- and multilateralism produced numerous Reviewed by Joseph L. Novak tion by using it in the title of his folksy 2006 accomplishments, the authors underscore. autobiography, Work Hard, Study … and The Man Who Ran Washington is not For his smooth, Machiavellian ways, Keep Out of Politics! a hagiography. It points out Baker’s flaws, James A. Baker III was called the “Velvet The authors cogently relate how Baker, including his tendency to transform into a Hammer.” The Man Who Ran Washington following George H.W. Bush to Washing- tough-as-nails campaign operative when- makes a convincing case that he was the ton, quickly gained respect even while ever election time rolled around. power broker of his era, as well. A deeply managing two losing presidential cam- The authors characterize the Bush 1988 sourced account of Baker’s consequential paigns (Ford in 1976 and Bush in 1980). campaign’s use of the “Willie Horton” life, it also provides a window on a time He reaped additional accolades for his television advertisement as a step over when Washington was less polarized and service as Ronald Reagan’s first chief of the line. They trenchantly observe that government more effective. staff. As a reward, Reagan named Baker the ad became “a metaphor for racially Best known for his tenure as the 61st Treasury secretary in 1985. Although he coded campaign tactics, aimed at divid- Secretary of State (1989-1992), Baker also had “nothing more than an undergraduate ing Americans for political benefit.” Like served as Treasury secretary and twice as course in economics,” as the authors put it, a cage fighter in a Savile Row suit, Baker White House chief of staff. He played key Baker was effective at Treasury. has never expressed regret. roles in five presidential campaigns and Wheeling and dealing with Democrats, Sir Isaiah Berlin in his celebrated 1953 was George W. Bush’s lead lawyer during he led the successful effort to rewrite the essay identified two types of thinkers: the the 2000 Florida recount. tax code; and in exhaustive negotiations “hedgehog,” rigidly focused on a single The husband-and-wife authors are with fellow foreign ministers, he reached path forward, versus the “fox,” flexibly well placed to tell his story. Peter Baker grand bargains on currency policy. The willing to go in many different directions. (no relation to James Baker) of The New authors astutely note that Baker’s act Within this duality, Baker—a technocrat York Times and Susan Glasser of The New of recommending Alan Greenspan as “in whom drive is more important than Yorker are highly regarded journalists with Federal Reserve Board Chair in 1987 had destination”—was the classic fox. many years of Washington experience. an especially long-lasting effect, given that Even though he operated without They spent 70 hours interviewing Baker, Greenspan served until 2006. much of an overarching vision, Baker was who remains active from his home base in The chapters detailing Baker’s service “the most important unelected official Houston at age 91. as Bush’s Secretary of State are particularly since World War II,” according to one com- The narrative arc is somewhat sprawl- absorbing. The authors shine a spotlight mentator. The authors contend that Baker ing as it richly details the dimensions of on Baker’s starring role in ending the Cold personified “an era when serious figures Baker’s long and varied career. The book is War, in easing the way for German unifica- could put aside their differences in a crisis, written with verve, however, and the pages tion, and in managing the U.S. response to bargain and lead.” After reading The Man move quickly. Arranged chronologically, the breakup of the Soviet Union. Who Ran Washington, it’s hard to disagree it sets out in-depth background on Baker’s The authors examine how Baker led the with those assessments. n privileged upbringing and how, after ser- all-out diplomatic effort to form the inter- vice in the Marines, he returned to Texas national coalition that countered Iraq after Joseph L. Novak is a Foreign Service officer and focused on his legal career. its invasion of Kuwait in 1990. They high- serving with the Bureau of International Along the way, he met George H.W. light the impressive metrics: Baker, in mak- Organization Affairs at the State Department.

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2021 81

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84 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2021 85 REAL ESTATE & PROPERTY MANAGEMENT

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THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2021 87 CLASSIFIED ADVERTISEMENTS

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88 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL REFLECTIONS

The Mouse That Roared

BY JONATHAN B. RICKERT

ne of my duties as the met. (Although the small ministry staff ministry had been intended to inform political/labor officer at included desk officers for Trinidad’s and persuade, not dictate, and certainly our small embassy in Port relatively few major partners, I recall that not to offend. Oof Spain, Trinidad, in the late they also had one for ROW, which stood We considered démarches to be part 1970s, was to deliver démarches to the for “rest of the world.”) of the normal currency of diplomatic Foreign Ministry. For anyone unfamil- One day the Foreign Ministry called, practice, I explained. I assumed, indeed iar with the term, a démarche may be requesting that I come at a specified time hoped, that Trinidad’s embassy in defined as an official position (or protest) to meet with the number three official Washington was approaching our State presented through diplomatic channels, there, Trevor Spencer, an acquaintance Department in a similar way on issues generally in person. with whom I dealt infrequently. Although of importance to his government. During the Carter administration, the request was unusual, I of course Spencer did not reply to any of my Washington frequently instructed us complied. points, simply reiterating the position to make routine démarches to the host When I arrived and was ushered into he had already expressed. While he was government on all sorts of issues, espe- Spencer’s office, I noticed immediately professional about it, he seemed not to cially votes at the United Nations and that, contrary to the usual practice, he have any flexibility to deviate from his International Bank for Reconstruction was flanked by two female stenographers, prepared text and to be somewhat ill at and Development, or in hemispheric who appeared ready to record every word ease with the whole exercise. organizations such as the Inter-American uttered. I promised to report his remarks to my Development Bank. After a minimal exchange of pleasant- superiors at the embassy and thanked The instructions usually came via ries, Spencer read a statement to me. In him for stating his government’s position cables directed to all diplomatic and essence, it said that Trinidad and Tobago so clearly. Though I had numerous occa- consular posts, and not infrequently were was a sovereign, independent state that sions to deliver démarches to the Foreign of little interest to or relevance for Trini- followed policies in its interests and of its Ministry thereafter, for whatever reason, dad. It seemed that I was weekly (or even own choosing. His government did not I was never called in and chastised again. more often) trudging over to the ministry, appreciate being told by the United States The main lesson I learned from this a somewhat rickety, converted Victorian or anyone else what it should or should whole experience was the sense of vulner- mansion overlooking the Queen’s Park not do. ability that small countries may have in Savannah, with such démarches. The démarches that I was continually their dealings with large, powerful ones, During these forays, I was always delivering on behalf of my government no matter how friendly the latter may be. received politely and informally, if were not welcome, being both irritating Just as an undersized person may feel noncommittally, by the lower-level and demeaning, even if they came from a intimidated, even helpless, in the pres- Trinidadian officials with whom I usually country with which Trinidad maintained ence of someone more imposing physi- good relations. The unmistakable mes- cally, small countries may react similarly. Retired Senior Foreign Service sage was that they wanted the démarches I interpret Spencer’s remarks to me Officer Jonathan B. Rickert to cease. as reflecting that pervasive sense of vul- spent the majority of his Once Spencer had finished, I asked nerability. As I once heard Trinidadian 35-year career in or dealing to respond. In brief, I replied that I and Foreign Minister John Donaldson say— with Central and Eastern the U.S. government had great respect regardless of whether elephants make Europe. His final two overseas posts were for Trinidad’s sovereignty and inde- love or war, it is the grass that suffers, as deputy chief of mission in Sofia and then pendence. Everything I had ever said clearly equating small countries like Bucharest. or done, on instructions, regarding his his own with the grass. n

THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL | JUNE 2021 89 LOCAL LENS BY ANGELIQUE MAHAL n SAFED DARA, TAJIKISTAN

n a wintry Saturday morning, these stunning mountains at the Safed Dara Ski Resort Please submit your favorite, (Safed Dara means white valley) in the Varzob region of Tajikistan glint in the bright sun. recent photograph to be consid- ered for Local Lens. Images must Walking in the snow and cold, crisp air with a colleague, surrounded by the majestic be high resolution (at least 300 Pamir mountains, was a refreshing break from continual telework at home in Dushanbe. dpi at 8” x 10”, or 1 MB or larger) O and must not be in print else- Skiing, ice skating, snowboarding and snowmobiling were all in progress just out of range of the where. Include a short description n camera’s lens. of the scene/event, as well as your name, brief biodata and the type of camera used. Send to local- Angelique Mahal, a USAID Foreign Service officer, is acting deputy mission director at USAID Tajikistan. [email protected]. She loves the winter season and has been enjoying the snow and cold weather. Angelique joined the Foreign Service in 2015; her previous posts were the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Afghanistan. She used her iPhone 6s to take this photograph in January.

90 JUNE 2021 | THE FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL