UNIT 2

Measuring the Performance of the economy OBJECTIVES • Upon completion of this unit students should be able to: • Distinguish between GDP at factor cost and at market prices. • Distinguish between GDE and expenditure on GDP. • Calculate GDP using the three different methods. • Differentiate between nominal and real GDP. • Derive personal disposable income from GDP. 1. DEFINITION AND CONTENT OF THE VARIOUS ACCOUNTS

• Countries record all transactions that take place inside the country as well as with other countries. • The methods used to measure the performance of the economy is known as the National Accounts (NA). • NA helps us to measure and analyse: • How much our nation is producing and consuming. • All economic activities regarding production, income, expenditure and trade with rest of the world as illustrated in the circular of income are summarised in the National Accounts. NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

Account 1: Gross Domestic Product and Expenditure Account 2: Gross National Income and the way it is appropriated. Account 3: Gross Capital Formation and the way it is financed. Account 4: The account with the rest of the world (Balance of payment). • Account 1,2 and 3 deals with the domestic economy. • Account 4, Deals with foreign sector and record all transactions with the rest of the world. 2. ACCOUNT 1: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND GROSS DOMESTIC EXPENDITURE

 GDP: is the market value of all final goods and services produced inside the borders of a country for a period of one year.  Final goods and services: Everything that is produced and sold to the end user for consumption. They are not used to produce other goods and services. E.g. If you buy bread at a shop and take it home to eat, the loaf of bread is a final good and is included in the GDP.  Intermediate goods: are not included in the GDP. E.g. If you buy bread and use it to make sandwiches to sell at school, the bread is an Intermediate good and the Sandwich is the final good.  Market value: GDP is measured in terms of the prices paid for goods on the market.  Taxes and subsidies influence the prices of goods and we need to take them into consideration. 2. ACCOUNT 1: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND GROSS DOMESTIC EXPENDITURE

• “Within the borders of the country” or domestic: Production that takes place in a country by citizens of the country as well as foreigners who live and work in the country is included in the GDP.

GDP vs GNP • GDP: Measure production that takes place inside Namibia. Including production by foreigners who live and work in Namibia but excludes production by Namibians who live and work in other countries. • GNP: Measure production by Namibians. It excludes the production of Foreigners who live and work in Namibia. CLASS ACTIVITY 1

1. Which of the following are final goods or services, and which are intermediate goods or services? a) A haircut purchased from a hair salon b) A new automobile c) An oil filter purchased in a new automobile d) Crude oil 3 METHODS USED TO CALCULATE THE GDP • The income method: It involves adding up all theincomereceivedbythefourfactorsof production. • The expenditure method: This method involves counting expenditure on goods and services by the four sectors of the economy. • The value added method: This method measures activities inside businesses that occur as products move through the different stages of production. A) INCOME METHOD

 The income method uses the income earned by various factors of production to calculate the GDP.  Compensation of employees: This item includes all salaries and wages.  Net operating surplus: Profit earned by entrepreneurs.  Consumption of fixed capital: Capital goods such as machines and equipment are consumed when production takes places. A part of every year’s production must be used to replace the old capital goods. In the national accounts it is called consumption of fixed capital. Taxes on production and products: Refer to indirect taxes that are levied on economic transactions. They are added because they increase the market prices of goods and services. Subsidies on the production and products: subsidies are deducted, because they decrease the market prices of goods and services. FACTOR COST AND MARKET PRICES

• GDPatfactorcost:Measures the cost to businesses to employ the four factors of production. • GDPatmarketprices:Include the prices consumer will pay for the goods on the market.

The difference between GDP at factor cost and Market prices is subsidies and taxes levied by the Government. TABLE 1: INCOME METHOD

Income method N$ millions

Compensation of employees 423 713

Net operating surplus 243 991

Consumption of fixed capital 112 633

GDP at factor cost 780 337

Other taxes on production 16 023

Less: Other subsidies on production 2 367

Taxes on products 84 453

Less: Subsidies on products 4 809

GDP at market prices 873 637 ACTIVITY 2

• Use the following statistics to calculate the GDP at factor cost and at market prices. N$ millions

Consumption of fixed capital 58 575 Other taxes on production 8 638 Net operating surplus 108 602 Taxes on products 41 611 Subsidies on products 6 320 Compensation of employees 218 159 Other subsidies on production 3 133 FEEDBACK TO ACTIVITY 2 N$ millions Compensation of employees 218 159 Net operating surplus 108 602 Consumption of fixed capital 58 575 GDP at factor cost 385 336 Other taxes on production 8 638 Less: Other subsidies on 3 133 production Taxes on products 41 611 Less: subsidies on products 6 320 GDP at market prices 426 132 B) EXPENDITURE METHOD

This method uses various types of expenditures on goods and services by four sectors to calculate the GDP at market prices. It is shown on the right hand side of Account 1 in Table 3 below.The expenditures are:  Consumption expenditure by households (C)  Gross Capital formation (Investment by firms I)  Consumption expenditure by the general government (G)  Exports of goods and services (X)  Imports of goods and services (M)  Residual (Discrepancy) EXPENDITURE METHOD

GDP= Expenditure on GDP Y=C+I+G+(X-M)

Gross Domestic Expenditure (GDE): Refers to the expenditure inside the country and excludes the foreign sector.

GDE= C+I+G I= Gross Capital Formation FINAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE BY HOUSEHOLD (C):

Expenditure by households on all final goods and services can be divided into the following categories:  Durable goods: Goods that are not used up in the process of consumption and last longer than one year, e.g. cars and furniture.  Semi-durable goods: Goods such as clothing and shoes that can be consumed for a period of time but they do not last as long as Durable goods.  Non-durable goods: These goods can be consumed only once e.g. food, petrol and cigarettes.  Services: Intangible consumption items that are consumed as they are produced, e.g. Medical services and transport services. FINAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE BY THE GENERAL GOVERNMENT

The general government includes the: Central Government Regional Government Local Government Consumption expenditure by the government includes all current expenditure on: Salaries and wages Goods and services of non-capital nature GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION

Also known as Investment expenditure. It consists of the following two components:  Gross fixed capital formation: Include all expenditure by producers on production goods such as new buildings, new machines and breeding livestock. It includes new capital goods of the private as well as the public sectors. New lecture buildings at NUST will be included in this category.  Change in inventories: Inventories include raw materials, semi-completed and completed products owned by businesses. These inventories change as goods are bought and sold. It reflects goods produced in the current period but not sold and goods produced in an earlier period but sold only during the current period. Therefore, change in inventories can be positive or negative. EXPORTS (X), IMPORTS (M) AND RESIDUAL ITEM

Exports (X):  Are goods produced in Namibia and sold in other countries. Imports (M):  Goods produced in other countries and sold in Namibia. They are not part of GDP and are deducted. RESIDUAL ITEM

 When calculating GDP by income and expenditure methods, we calculate the same thing, but calculation errors can occur.  Data to calculate GDP are obtained from different sources and calculations may not be completely accurate.  Errors can be overcame by including the residual item. From table 3 GDP calculated according to expenditure method is more than GDP obtained by Income method. The residual item is difference between the two. Calculating the residual item:

Total expenditure N$877 934 Less: GDP at Market P N$873 637 Residual item N$ 4 297 TABLE 2: EXPENDITURE METHOD

Expenditure method N$ millions Consumption expenditure by households 555 818 Consumption expenditure by the general 160 640 government

Gross capital formation 135 591 Gross domestic expenditure 852 049 Exports of goods and services 253 804 Less: Imports of goods and services 227 919 Residual item - 4 297

Expenditure on GDP 873 637 (GDP at market prices) TABLE 3: ILLUSTRATION OF THE INCOME AND EXPENDITURE METHODS

N$ Millions Expenditure method N$ Million Income method Compensation of 423 713 Consumption expenditure by 555 818 employees Households

Net operating surplus 243 991 Consumption expenditure by the 160 640 general government

Consumption of fixed 112 633 Gross Capital formation 135 591 capital GDP at factor cost 780 337 Gross Domestic Expenditure 852 049

Other taxes on 16 023 Exports of good and services 253 804 production Less: Other subsidies on 2 367 Less: Imports of goods and services (227 919) production Taxes on product 84 453 Residual item - 4 297 Less: Subsidies on 4 809 product GDP at Market prices 873 637 GDP at Market prices 873 637 ACTIVITY 3

1. Use the data provided below to derive the GDP for Namibia by the expenditure approach. Items Amount in Trillions of N$ Durable goods 1.2 Non durable goods 2.4 Services 7.1 Fixed investment 1.9 Change in business inventories 0.04 Consumption expenditure by the 1.2 National Government Consumption expenditure by the 1.8 Local and Regional Government

Export 2.1 Import 2.6 SOLUTION ACTIVITY 3

Expenditure method In N$ Amount (Trillion of N$) Consumption expenditure by the 10.7 household (C) Durable goods 1.2 Non durable goods 2.4 Services 7.1 Gross Capital Formation 1.94 Fixed investment 1.9 Change in Business inventories 0.04

Consumption expenditure by the 3.0 Government National 1.2 Regional and Local 1.8 Net Export of goods and services -0.5

Exports 2.1 Imports 2.6 Gross Domestic Product 15.14 ACTIVITY 4

• Use the following statistics to calculate the GDE and the GDP (expenditure on GDP) according to the expenditure method:

N$ millions

Exports of goods and services 91 578

Change in inventories 3 603

Final consumption exp by households 265 392

Imports of goods and services 75 917

Final consumption exp by government 85 551

Gross fixed capital formation 62 601 SOLUTION ACTIVITY 4

N$ millions Final consumption exp by households 265 392 Final consumption exp by government 85 551 Gross capital formation: 65 204 Gross fixed capital formation 62 601 Change in inventories 3 603 GDE 417 147 Exports of goods and services 91 578 Less: Imports of goods and services 75 917 Expenditure on GDP 432 808 (GDP at market prices) C) VALUE ADDED METHOD

• This method calculate GDP by adding the value of each producer’s contribution to the final product. • Value added method calculations: • A farmer produces 1000 bags of wheat which he sells to a miller at N$10 per bag, yielding a total of N$10 000. • The miller processes the wheat into flour, which he then sells to a baker for N$12 500. • After baking bread with flour, the baker sells it to a shop for N$18 000. • The shop subsequently sells the bread to final consumers for N$21 000. • TABLE 4: MARKET VALUE AND VALUE ADDED

Firm Market value Value added (N$) (N$) Farmer 10 000 10 000 Miller 12 500 2 500 Baker 18 000 5 500 Retailer/shop 21 000 3 000 keeper Total: 61 500 21 000 VALUE ADDED METHOD

 The bread did not increase GDP by N$ 61 500 but only by N$ 21 000. Because the final product is worth N$21 000.  N$61 500 is obtained by double counting.  The original of wheat N$ 10 000, is incl. In each market value or selling price.  We eliminate double counting by counting the total value of the first producer and the value added during the stages of production (value of the final product).  From table 4: total value added is N$21 000 and the value of bread sold to consumer is N$ 21 000.  Thus, bread increase GDP by N$21 000. VALUE ADDED METHOD

• While products are moving through the production process, we refer to them as intermediate goods. • Intermediate goods are used as inputs to produce other goods and services. They are processed further before they are sold to consumers. • The intermediate goods in Table 4 are the wheat, the flour processed by the miller and the bread sold to the retailer by the baker. • They are not included in the GDP because if they are included, it will result in double counting.  Final goods form part of GDP. Final goods are purchased for consumption by individuals, households and firms.  Value added is the contribution that each stage of production makes to the final value of a good. HOMEWORK

Question 1 You are given the following information: (a)A forester chops down 100 trees and sells them for N$40 each to a sawmill. (b)The sawmill processes the trees into timber and sells the timber to a factory for N$10 000. (c)The factory uses the timber to make 200 tables and sells the tables for N$150 each to a wholesaler. (d)The wholesaler sells the 200 tables to a retailer for N$300 each. (e)Consumers buy the 200 tables at N$350 each from the retailer. Using the above information, calculate the value of GDP by the value-added approach. HOMEWORK

The information in the Table below is a fictitious industrial column for canned fish in 2007. Please fill in the gaps. What is the value of the fishing industry’s contribution to Namibia’s GDP? Activity Market value (N$ million) Value added (N$ million)

Fish trawling industry 253

Processing 45

Canning 352

Retailing 78

TOTALS: USING GDP FIGURES

 To compare one country’s GDP with that of another country, wee need to distinguish between nominal GDP and real GDP.

 Nominal GDP/ GDP at existing prices/ GDP at current prices:  Is the GDP calculated at existing prices. Also known as GDP at current prices. E.g Goods produced in 2017 will measured in terms of 2017 prices.  Real GDP/ GDP at constant prices:  Is nominal GDP adjusted for inflation. It is calculated at constant prices. P are adjusted to eliminate inflation.  We compare GDP figures from one year to those of another year to see if economic growth had taken place. USING GDP FIGURES

• Real GDP= Nominal GDP x 100 Price Index • Price index: Is a measure of how the price level has risen from one year to the next.

Example: GDP at market prices = N$38 560 million and consumer P index= 124.4

Real GDP= 38 560/124.4 x 100= N$30 997Mil USING GDP FIGURES

• Potential GDP: Refer to the GDP the economy could have earned if all its productive resources were fully employed. We refer to this as the full employment income or production level. Example: Real GDP in 2010 was N$ 150 000 but 30% of the countries resources are unemployed. Thus, only 70% of the resources is responsible for GDP mentioned above. Potential GDP= 100/70x150 000 = N$ 214 285 3. ACCOUNT 2: NATIONAL DISPOSABLE INCOME AND HOW IT IS APPROPRIATED

• Reflect income earned by Namibians both inside and outside the borders of the country. • National aggregate and exclude income earned by foreigners who live in Namibia. • Gross National Disposable Income indicates how income is earned. • Appropriation means how citizens use their income. • Income used in the following ways: • Household can consume their income • G spend income on consumption item • Income can be saved Gross National N$ million Appropriation of N$ million Disposable Income national income

Compensation of 423 713 Consumption expenditure 555 818 employees by household

Less: Net compensation to 1 695 Consumption expenditure 160 640 non residents by general government

Gross operating surplus 356 524 Final consumption 716 458 expenditure Less: Net property income 20 820 Gross saving 132 541 to the rest of the world

Taxes on production and 100 476 imports Less: Subsidies 7 176 Less: Net current transfer 6 422 from the rest of the world

Residual item 4 299 Gross National 848 999 Appropriation of 848 999 Disposable Income National Income 4. ACCOUNT 3

• Saving: Is the difference between total available national income and total consumption expenditure. Gross domestic saving consist of: • Saving by households: Difference between household final consumption expenditure and current disposable income. Not used for consumption but available to finance investment. • Corporate saving: Is part of the company profits that is left over after company tax and dividends have been paid. • Saving by the General Government: Difference between Government current income and current expenditure. • Consumption of fixed capital: Amount provided to replace old and worn out capital stock. 4. ACCOUNT 3…

• Net Capital inflow from the rest of the world • Shows the net amount of funds flowing to or from the country. • If more is coming in than goes out, this figure will be positive. • If more flows out than comes in, the figure will be negative. • Foreign investment: Is the balance on the current account in the BoP. • If positive (Surplus) – Inflows > outflows, represents an increase in domestic capital formation. ACCOUNT 3: GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION AND HOW IT IS FINANCED

Gross Capital N$ million Financing of Gross Capital N$ million Formation Formation

Gross Fixed Capital 130 320 Saving by household 2386 Formation Change in inventories 5271 Corporate Saving 33 390

Saving by Government -15 868 Consumption of fixed capital 112 633

Gross saving 132 541 Net capital inflow from the rest 6242 of the world Change in gold and other -3192 foreign reserves Foreign investment 3050 Gross Capital 135 591 Financing of gross capital 135 591 Formation formation 5. ACCOUNT WITH THE REST OF THE WORLD (BALANCE OF PAYMENT)

• All countries keep record of all transaction with the rest of the world. This accounting record is called the BoP • Balance of payment consists of two major accounts: • The current account • The capital and financial account CURRENT ACCOUNT

 On the left hand side.  Records all exports, imports and transfer of money. ◦ Transfer include cash received by Government and private organization or individuals. ◦ Government receives grants from governments and their share of money from SACU. ◦ NGO receives money from foreign governments. CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT

• On the right hand side and records the net transfers from the rest of the world. • Net capital transfer indicate the favorable difference between capital inflows and capital outflows. • Capital includes direct investment, portfolio investment (A portfolio investment is a transaction in which securities are held purely as a financial investment). and any other investment including change in gold and foreign reserves. • If balance on the current account shows a negative value, the financial account must provide funding through capital inflows shown on the right hand side as a positive value. TABLE 7: ACCOUNT 4: ACCOUNT WITH THE REST OF THE WORLD

Current account N$ millions Capital account N$ millions

Total exports of 268929 Net capital inflow 6242 goods and services from the rest of the world

Less: Total imports 265557 Change in gold and -3192 of goods and foreign reserves services

Transfers -6422

Balance on current -3050 Financial flows and 3050 account change in reserves 6. OTHER MEASURES OF PRODUCTION, INCOME & EXPENDITURE

• Gross National Product (GNP) • Income and profits earned by Namibians in foreign countries and paid back to Namibia is called Factor receipts. • Foreigners who live and work in Namibia pay income and profits back to their countries it is referred to as Factor payments. • Factor payments – Factor receipts = Net Factor Payments • GDP – Net Factor Payments = GNP 6. OTHER MEASURES OF PRODUCTION, INCOME & EXPENDITURE

Net National Product (NNP) GNP – consumption of fixed capital = NNP National Income (NI) NNP is measured at market prices and NI is measured is measure at factor cost. NNP – Indirect business taxes + subsidies= NI Personal income (PI) PI=NI Less: Company tax Company saving Plus: Transfer payments Personal disposable income (PDI) PI – Personal taxes = PDI ACTIVITY

Consider the set of national accounts figures (all valued at market prices) given in the table below. Calculate (a) GDE, (b) GDP, (c) GNP and (d) NNP. Show your workings. N$ millions Consumption of fixed capital 42 937 Net factor payments to the rest of the world 11 229 Gross capital formation 47 260 Exports of goods and services 70 814 Private consumption expenditure by 169 530 households Consumption expenditure by general 53 702 government Imports of goods and services 54 146 END OF UNIT 2: THANK YOU!!! QUESTIONS???