Basic Concepts of National Accounts Aggregates
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Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries
Estimating the e®ects of ¯scal policy in OECD countries Roberto Perotti¤ This version: November 2004 Abstract This paper studies the e®ects of ¯scal policy on GDP, in°ation and interest rates in 5 OECD countries, using a structural Vector Autoregression approach. Its main results can be summarized as follows: 1) The e®ects of ¯scal policy on GDP tend to be small: government spending multipliers larger than 1 can be estimated only in the US in the pre-1980 period. 2) There is no evidence that tax cuts work faster or more e®ectively than spending increases. 3) The e®ects of government spending shocks and tax cuts on GDP and its components have become substantially weaker over time; in the post-1980 period these e®ects are mostly negative, particularly on private investment. 4) Only in the post-1980 period is there evidence of positive e®ects of government spending on long interest rates. In fact, when the real interest rate is held constant in the impulse responses, much of the decline in the response of GDP in the post-1980 period in the US and UK disappears. 5) Under plausible values of its price elasticity, government spending typically has small e®ects on in°ation. 6) Both the decline in the variance of the ¯scal shocks and the change in their transmission mechanism contribute to the decline in the variance of GDP after 1980. ¤IGIER - Universitµa Bocconi and Centre for Economic Policy Research. I thank Alberto Alesina, Olivier Blanchard, Fabio Canova, Zvi Eckstein, Jon Faust, Carlo Favero, Jordi Gal¶³, Daniel Gros, Bruce Hansen, Fumio Hayashi, Ilian Mihov, Chris Sims, Jim Stock and Mark Watson for helpful comments and suggestions. -
Introduction to Macroeconomics Lecture Notes
Introduction to Macroeconomics Lecture Notes Robert M. Kunst March 2006 1 Macroeconomics Macroeconomics (Greek makro = ‘big’) describes and explains economic processes that concern aggregates. An aggregate is a multitude of economic subjects that share some common features. By contrast, microeconomics treats economic processes that concern individuals. Example: The decision of a firm to purchase a new office chair from com- pany X is not a macroeconomic problem. The reaction of Austrian house- holds to an increased rate of capital taxation is a macroeconomic problem. Why macroeconomics and not only microeconomics? The whole is more complex than the sum of independent parts. It is not possible to de- scribe an economy by forming models for all firms and persons and all their cross-effects. Macroeconomics investigates aggregate behavior by imposing simplifying assumptions (“assume there are many identical firms that pro- duce the same good”) but without abstracting from the essential features. These assumptions are used in order to build macroeconomic models.Typi- cally, such models have three aspects: the ‘story’, the mathematical model, and a graphical representation. Macroeconomics is ‘non-experimental’: like, e.g., history, macro- economics cannot conduct controlled scientific experiments (people would complain about such experiments, and with a good reason) and focuses on pure observation. Because historical episodes allow diverse interpretations, many conclusions of macroeconomics are not coercive. Classical motivation of macroeconomics: politicians should be ad- vised how to control the economy, such that specified targets can be met optimally. policy targets: traditionally, the ‘magical pentagon’ of good economic growth, stable prices, full employment, external equilibrium, just distribution 1 of income; according to the EMU criteria, focus on inflation (around 2%), public debt, and a balanced budget; according to Blanchard,focusonlow unemployment (around 5%), good economic growth, and inflation (0—3%). -
The National Accounts, GDP and the 'Growthmen'
The National Accounts, GDP and the ‘Growthmen’ Geoff Tily January 2015 The National Accounts, GDP and the ‘Growthmen’ A review essay of Diane Coyle GDP: A Brief but Affectionate History, 2013 By Geoff Tily Reading GDP: A Brief But Affectionate History by Diane Coyle (2013) led to the question –when and how did GDP growth become the central focus of policymaking? Younger readers may be more surprised by the answers than older ones, with the details not commonplace in conventional histories of post-war policy. 2 Abstract It is apt to start with Keynes, who played a far greater role in the creation and construction of National Accounts than is usually recognised, doing so in part to aid his own theoretical and practical initiatives. These were not concerned with growth, but with raising the level of activity and employment. The accounts were one of several means to this end. Coyle rightly bemoans real GDP growth as the end of policy, but that was not the original intention. Moreover Coyle adheres to a theoretical view where outcomes can only improve through gains in productivity, i.e. growth in output per unit of whatever input, which seems inseparable from GDP growth. The analysis also touches on the implications for theory and policy doctrine in practice. Most obviously Keynes’s approach was rejected on the ground of practical application. The emphasis on growth and an associated supply- orientation for policy seemingly became embedded through the OECD formally from 1961 and then in the UK via the National Economic Development Corporation of the 1960s (the relationships between these initiatives are of great interest but far from clear). -
14.54 F16 Lecture Slides: Production Functions
14.54 International Trade Lecture 10: Production Functions 14.54 Week 6 Fall 2016 14.54 (Week 6) Production Functions Fall 2016 1 / 20 Today's Plan 1 Midterm Results 2 Properties of Production Functions (2 Factors) 3 Isoquants 4 Input Choice and Cost Minimization 5 Relative Factor Demand Graphs on slides 7, 10-17, and 19 are courtesy of Marc Melitz. Used with permission. 14.54 (Week 6) Production Functions Fall 2016 2 / 20 Introduction We will now introduce another factor of production: capital Can also think about other production factors: land, skilled versus unskilled labor, ... 14.54 (Week 6) Production Functions Fall 2016 3 / 20 What issues can be addressed when production requires more than a single factor? In the short-run, some factors are more ‘flexible’ than others: how quickly and at what cost can factors move from employment in one sector to another? Example of labor and capital: After a U.S. state is hit with a regional shock, unemployment rate falls back to national average within 6 years (most inter-regional employment reallocations also involve worker reallocations across sectors) In comparison, capital depreciates over 15-20 years and structures over 30-50 years In the short-run, labor is more ”flexible” than capital across sectors Distributional consequences across factors from changes in goods prices even in the long run 14.54 (Week 6) Production Functions Fall 2016 4 / 20 Production Function Under constant returns to scale, a production function with one factor can be summarized by a single number: unit input requirement (an overall productivity index) With more than one factor, a production function also characterizes the substitutability between the factors of production (as well as an overall productivity index) We will now assume that QC = FC (KC , LC ) and QF = FF (KF , LF ) We will continue to assume constant returns to scale: F (tK , tL) = tF (K , L) for any t > 0 And will also assume diminishing marginal returns to a single factor .. -
Causality and Interdependence in Pasinetti's Works and in the Modern
Causality and interdependence in Pasinetti’s works and in the modern classical approach Enrico Bellino and Sebastiano Nerozzi Centro Sraffa Working Papers n. 10 January 2015 ISSN: 2284 -2845 Centro Sraffa working papers [online] Causality and interdependence in Pasinetti’s works and in the modern classical approach* Enrico Bellinoa and Sebastiano Nerozzib a Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano b Università degli studi di Palermo One of the items that Pasinetti rightfully emphasizes in characterizing the Cambridge school, and differentiating it from mainstream neoclassicism, is causality versus interdependence. (Leijonhufvud, 2008, 537) Abstract. The formal representation of economic theories normally takes the shape of a model, that is, a system of equations which connect the endogenous variables with the values of the parameters which are taken as given. Sometimes, it is possible to identify one or more equations which are able to determine a subset of endogenous variables priory and independently of the other equations and of the value taken by the remaining variables of the system. The first group of equations and variables are thus said to causally determine the remaining variables. In Pasinetti’s works, this notion of causality has often been emphasized as a formal property having the burden of conveying a profound economic meaning. In this paper, we will go through those works of Pasinetti where the notion of causality plays a central role, with the purpose of contextualizing it within the econometric debate of the Sixties, enucleate its economic meaning, and show its connections with other fields of the modern classical approach. Keywords: causality, interdependence, modern classical approach, Ricardo distribution theory, Keynes’s analysis, ‘given quantities’, surplus approach, structural dynamics, vertical integration. -
National Income in India, Concept and Measurement
National Income in India, Concept and Measurement National Income :- • National income is the money value of all the final goods and services produced by a country during a period of one year. National income consists of a collection of different types of goods and services of different types. • Since these goods are measured in different physical units it is not possible to add them together. Thus we cannot state national income is so many millions of meters of cloth. Therefore, there is no way except to reduce them to a common measure. This common measure is money. Basic Concepts in National Income:- • Gross domestic product • Gross domestic product at constant price and at current price • Gross domestic product at factor cost and Gross domestic product at market price • Net domestic product • Gross national product • Net national Product • Net national product at factor cost or national income Gross Domestic Product • Gross domestic product is the money value of all final goods and services produced in the domestic territory of a country during an accounting year. Gross Domestic Product at Constant price and Current price • GDP can be estimated at current prices and at constant prices. If the domestic product is estimated on the basis of the prevailing prices it is called gross domestic product at current prices. • If GDP is measured on the basis of some fixed price, that is price prevailing at a point of time or in some base year it is known as GDP at constant price or real gross domestic product. GDP at Factor cost and GDP at Market price • The contribution of each producing unit to the current flow of goods and services is known as the net value added. -
Long-Term Unemployment and the 99Ers
Long-Term Unemployment and the 99ers An Emerging Issues Report from the January 2012 Long-Term Unemployment and the 99ers The Issue Long-term unemployment has been the most stubborn consequence of the Great Recession. In October 2011, more than two years after the Great Recession officially ended, the national unemployment rate stood at 9.0%, with Connecticut’s unemployment rate at 8.7%.1 Americans have been taught to connect the economic condition of the country or their state to the unemployment Millions of Americans— rate, but the national or state unemployment rate does not tell known as 99ers—have the real story. Concealed in those statistics is evidence of a exhausted their UI benefits, substantial and challenging structural change in the labor and their numbers grow market. Nationally, in July 2011, 31.8% of unemployed people every month. had been out of work for at least 52 weeks. In Connecticut, data shows 37% of the unemployed had been jobless for a year or more. By August 2011, the national average length of unemployment was a record 40 weeks.2 Many have been out of work far longer, with serious consequences. Even with federal extensions to Unemployment Insurance (UI), payments are available for a maximum of 99 weeks in some states; other states provide fewer (60-79) weeks. Millions of Americans—known as 99ers— have exhausted their UI benefits, and their numbers grow every month. By October 2011, approximately 2.9 million nationally had done so. Projections show that five million people will be 99ers, exhausting their benefits, by October 2012. -
Factor Proportions, Linkages and the Open Developing Economy
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Riedel, James Working Paper — Digitized Version Factor proportions, linkages and the open developing economy Kiel Working Paper, No. 20 Provided in Cooperation with: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Suggested Citation: Riedel, James (1974) : Factor proportions, linkages and the open developing economy, Kiel Working Paper, No. 20, Kiel Institute of World Economics (IfW), Kiel This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/46955 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu Kieler Arbeitspapiere Kiel Working Papers Working Paper No. 20 FACTOR PROPORTIONS, LINKAGES 'AND THE OPEN DEVELOPING ECONOMY by James,Riedel •\ Institut fiir Wfeltwirtschaft an der Universitat Kiel Kiel Institute of World Economics Department IV 2300 Kiel, Dusternbrooker Weg 120 Working Paper No. -
Editors' Summary of the Brookings Papers On
1017-00a Editors Sum 12/30/02 14:45 Page ix Editors’ Summary The brookings panel ON Economic Activity held its seventy-fourth conference in Washington, D.C., on September 5 and 6, 2002. This issue of Brookings Papers on Economic Activity includes the papers and dis- cussions presented at the conference. The first paper reviews the process and methods of inflation and output forecasting at four central banks and proposes strategies for improving the usefulness of their formal economic models for policymaking. The second paper analyzes the implications for monetary policymaking of uncertainty about the levels of the natural rates of unemployment and interest. The third paper examines reasons for the recent rise in current account deficits in the lower-income countries of Europe and the role of economic integration in breaking the link between domestic saving and domestic investment. The fourth paper applies a new decomposition of productivity growth to a new database of income-side output to examine the recent speedup in U.S. productivity growth and the contribution made by new economy industries. Despite a growing transparency in the conduct of monetary policy at many central banks, little is still known publicly about the actual process of central bank decisionmaking. In the first paper of this issue, Christopher Sims examines this process, drawing on interviews with staff and policy committee members from the Swedish Riksbank, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the U.S. Federal Reserve. Central bank policy actions are inevitably based on forecasts of inflation and output. Sims’ interviews focused on how those forecasts are made, how uncer- tainty is dealt with, and what role formal economic models play in the process. -
National Income Per Capita
HOUSEHOLD INCOME AND WEALTH • INCOME AND SAVINGS NATIONALIncome and savings INCOME PER CAPITA While per capita gross domestic product is the indicator residents (and vice versa). In this respect, it is important to most commonly used to compare national income levels, note that retained earnings of foreign enterprises owned by two other measures are preferred by many analysts. These residents do not actually return to the residents concerned. are per capita Gross National Income (GNI) and Net Nevertheless, the retained earnings are recorded as a National Income (NNI). Whereas GDP refers to the income receipt. generated by production activities on the economic territory of the country, GNI measures the income Comparability generated by the residents of a country, whether earned in the domestic territory or abroad. NNI is the aggregate value All countries compile data according to the 2008 SNA of the balances of net primary incomes summed over all “System of National Accounts, 2008” with the exception of sectors. Chile, Japan, and Turkey, where data are compiled according to the 1993 SNA. When changes in international standards are implemented countries often take the Definition opportunity to implement improved compilation methods; GNI is defined as GDP plus receipts from abroad less therefore also implementing various improvements in payments to abroad of wages and salaries and of property sources and estimation methodologies. In some countries income plus net taxes and subsidies receivable from the impact of the ‘statistical benchmark revision’ could be abroad. NNI is equal to GNI net of depreciation. higher than the impact of the changeover in standards. As Wages and salaries from abroad are those that are earned a consequence the GDP level for the OECD total increased by residents who essentially live and consume inside the by 3.8% in 2010 based on the available countries. -
How Does Fiscal Policy Affect the American Worker?
HOW DOES FISCAL POLICY AFFECT THE AMERICAN WORKER? JOHN D. MUELLER* OVERVIEW American policymakers have begun to prepare the public for fiscal policy changes, such as comprehensive reforms of the Federal income tax and Social Security retirement systems, which would profoundly alter the lives of American workers and their families. Projected fiscal imbalances are clearly unsustainable, and Europe’s economic and demographic crisis, characterized by high unemployment and falling fertility rates, illustrates the grave dangers of policy mistakes. But no American consensus has emerged, partly because there is no generally accepted and empirically grounded theory explaining how fiscal policy affects employment and fertility. This paper lays out a simple but com- prehensive framework for analyzing such questions, by proceed- ing from the homey example of a children’s lemonade stand to describe how Augustine’s theory of personal love and Aristotle’s theory of distributive justice were originally integrated within economic analysis. The second section applies the analysis to describe and update “Rueff’s Law,” which explains how employ- ment and unemployment are determined by the cost of labor (measured as workers’ share of total labor and property income after government taxes and benefits). The analysis shows that funding social benefits either by borrowing or with income taxes raises the cost of labor and unemployment, while funding such benefits with payroll taxes does not increase unemployment but may lower labor market participation. The third section extends the analysis to fill a crucial gap in the economic theory of fertility and shows that most variation in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) among the fifty countries for which data are available (compris- * John D. -
Let's Take the Con out of Factor Content
Let’s Take the Con Out of Factor Content Eric O’N. Fisher California Polytechnic State University, University of California at Santa Barbara, and Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Kathryn G. Marshall∗ California Polytechnic State University May 22, 2009 Abstract Factor price differences are of primary importance in explaining the fac- tor content of trade. They reflect local scarcity, and production techniques adapt accordingly. Since capital and labor are complementary inputs in al- most every industry, a country that is physically scarce in a factor may well be measured as abundant in its services. 1 Introduction The Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek paradigm is a theory of trade in factor services, not in factors themselves. When factor prices are equalized, this difference causes little mischief. But if local shadow values of factors are disparate, then the theory and its proper empirical applications become more subtle. ∗The authors’ emails are efi[email protected] and [email protected]. They thank Shuichiro Nishioka and seminar participants at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco for comments on an earlier draft. All the data, Gauss programs, and Eviews workfiles are available upon request. 1 The world economy consists of many countries producing similar goods using different technologies. The OECD has assembled 33 recent input-output matrices that can be used to construct consistent local measures of direct and indirect factor content in 48 sectors. They are an invaluable tool for the study of international trade or open economy macroeconomics. We take full advantage of them here. There is overwhelming evidence that factor prices are not equalized.