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Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries
Estimating the e®ects of ¯scal policy in OECD countries Roberto Perotti¤ This version: November 2004 Abstract This paper studies the e®ects of ¯scal policy on GDP, in°ation and interest rates in 5 OECD countries, using a structural Vector Autoregression approach. Its main results can be summarized as follows: 1) The e®ects of ¯scal policy on GDP tend to be small: government spending multipliers larger than 1 can be estimated only in the US in the pre-1980 period. 2) There is no evidence that tax cuts work faster or more e®ectively than spending increases. 3) The e®ects of government spending shocks and tax cuts on GDP and its components have become substantially weaker over time; in the post-1980 period these e®ects are mostly negative, particularly on private investment. 4) Only in the post-1980 period is there evidence of positive e®ects of government spending on long interest rates. In fact, when the real interest rate is held constant in the impulse responses, much of the decline in the response of GDP in the post-1980 period in the US and UK disappears. 5) Under plausible values of its price elasticity, government spending typically has small e®ects on in°ation. 6) Both the decline in the variance of the ¯scal shocks and the change in their transmission mechanism contribute to the decline in the variance of GDP after 1980. ¤IGIER - Universitµa Bocconi and Centre for Economic Policy Research. I thank Alberto Alesina, Olivier Blanchard, Fabio Canova, Zvi Eckstein, Jon Faust, Carlo Favero, Jordi Gal¶³, Daniel Gros, Bruce Hansen, Fumio Hayashi, Ilian Mihov, Chris Sims, Jim Stock and Mark Watson for helpful comments and suggestions. -
Introduction to Macroeconomics Lecture Notes
Introduction to Macroeconomics Lecture Notes Robert M. Kunst March 2006 1 Macroeconomics Macroeconomics (Greek makro = ‘big’) describes and explains economic processes that concern aggregates. An aggregate is a multitude of economic subjects that share some common features. By contrast, microeconomics treats economic processes that concern individuals. Example: The decision of a firm to purchase a new office chair from com- pany X is not a macroeconomic problem. The reaction of Austrian house- holds to an increased rate of capital taxation is a macroeconomic problem. Why macroeconomics and not only microeconomics? The whole is more complex than the sum of independent parts. It is not possible to de- scribe an economy by forming models for all firms and persons and all their cross-effects. Macroeconomics investigates aggregate behavior by imposing simplifying assumptions (“assume there are many identical firms that pro- duce the same good”) but without abstracting from the essential features. These assumptions are used in order to build macroeconomic models.Typi- cally, such models have three aspects: the ‘story’, the mathematical model, and a graphical representation. Macroeconomics is ‘non-experimental’: like, e.g., history, macro- economics cannot conduct controlled scientific experiments (people would complain about such experiments, and with a good reason) and focuses on pure observation. Because historical episodes allow diverse interpretations, many conclusions of macroeconomics are not coercive. Classical motivation of macroeconomics: politicians should be ad- vised how to control the economy, such that specified targets can be met optimally. policy targets: traditionally, the ‘magical pentagon’ of good economic growth, stable prices, full employment, external equilibrium, just distribution 1 of income; according to the EMU criteria, focus on inflation (around 2%), public debt, and a balanced budget; according to Blanchard,focusonlow unemployment (around 5%), good economic growth, and inflation (0—3%). -
Research Article Explaining Protectionism Support: the Role of Economic Factors
View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Crossref Hindawi Publishing Corporation ISRN Economics Volume 2013, Article ID 954071, 14 pages http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/954071 Research Article Explaining Protectionism Support: The Role of Economic Factors Natalia Melgar,1 Juliette Milgram-Baleix,2 and Máximo Rossi1 1 Department of Economics, University of the Republic, Constituyente 1502, 11200 Montevideo, Uruguay 2 Department of Economic eory and History, University of Granada, Campus Cartuja, 18071 Granada, Spain Correspondence should be addressed to Natalia Melgar; [email protected] Received 8 November 2012; Accepted 26 November 2012 Academic Editors: T. M. Dall and D. Mitra Copyright © 2013 Natalia Melgar et al. is is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. We �nd that individuals’ opinions concerning protectionist policies match with how their revenue could be affected in the medium or long term by trade liberalisation in line with predictions of the comparative advantage models. An adverse macroeconomic context (large increase in the unemployment rate or in�ation rate) increases protectionist attitudes, thus re�ecting that people do not trust that free trade will lead to lower prices or create jobs despite trade theory optimism. People share a mercantilist view of trade since more imports increase protectionism support, while people positively value exports, especially in small countries. Regarding policy measures, while protectionist measures do not in�uence protectionism support in general, easy access to exports reduces people’s support for protectionism. -
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
1 SECTION Gross Domestic Product ross domestic product (GDP) is a measure of a country’s economic output. GDP per capita and GDP Gper employed person are related indicators that provide a general picture of a country’s well-being. GDP per capita is an indicator of overall wealth in a country, and GDP per employed person is a general indicator of productivity. 8 CHARTING INTERNATIONAL LABOR COMPARISONS | SEPTEMBER 2012 U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS | www.bls.gov Gross domestic product, selected countries, in U.S. dollars, 2010 United States China Japan CHART India 1.1 Germany Gross domestic United Kingdom France product (GDP) Brazil was more Italy than 14 trillion Mexico dollars in the Spain South Korea United States Canada and exceeded Australia 4 trillion Poland dollars in only Netherlands Argentina three other Belgium countries: Sweden China, Japan, Philippines and India. Switzerland Austria In addition to China Greece Singapore and India, other large Czech Republic emerging economies, Norway such as Brazil and Portugal Mexico, were among the Israel 10 largest countries in Denmark terms of GDP. Hungary Finland The GDP of the United Ireland States was roughly 5 New Zealand times larger than that of Slovakia Germany, 10 times larger Estonia than that of South Korea, 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Trillions of 2010 U.S. dollars and 40 times larger than that of the Philippines. NOTE: GDP is converted to U.S. dollars using purchasing power parities (PPP). See section notes. SOURCES: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and The World Bank. -
Economic Size and Debt Sustainability Against Piketty's
Economic Size and Debt Sustainability against Piketty’s Capital Inequality Hyejin Cho To cite this version: Hyejin Cho. Economic Size and Debt Sustainability against Piketty’s Capital Inequality. ACRN Journal of Finance and Risk Perspectives, ACRN Oxford Publishing House, 2015, 4 (2), pp.21-42. hal-01009465v2 HAL Id: hal-01009465 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01009465v2 Submitted on 24 May 2017 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. ACRN Journal of Finance and Risk Perspectives Vol. 4, Issue 2, March 2015, p. 21-42 ISSN 2305-7394 ECONOMIC SIZE AND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY AGAINST PIKETTY’S “CAPITAL INEQUALITY” Hye-jin Cho1 1Department of Economics, University of Paris 1, Pantheon-Sorbonne, PARIS, FRANCE Abstract. This article presents a methodology designed to facilitate alternative variables measuring economic growth. A capital-labor split of Cobb-Douglas function is adapted for use in the context of economic growth. A capital/income ratio and two fundamental laws of capitalism originated by Thomas Piketty illustrate capital inequality undervalued with respect to labor inequality. In addition, the article includes export and external debt as strong alternatives. Empirical data of the World Bank are analyzed to demonstrate broad differences in economic sizes. -
Causality and Interdependence in Pasinetti's Works and in the Modern
Causality and interdependence in Pasinetti’s works and in the modern classical approach Enrico Bellino and Sebastiano Nerozzi Centro Sraffa Working Papers n. 10 January 2015 ISSN: 2284 -2845 Centro Sraffa working papers [online] Causality and interdependence in Pasinetti’s works and in the modern classical approach* Enrico Bellinoa and Sebastiano Nerozzib a Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano b Università degli studi di Palermo One of the items that Pasinetti rightfully emphasizes in characterizing the Cambridge school, and differentiating it from mainstream neoclassicism, is causality versus interdependence. (Leijonhufvud, 2008, 537) Abstract. The formal representation of economic theories normally takes the shape of a model, that is, a system of equations which connect the endogenous variables with the values of the parameters which are taken as given. Sometimes, it is possible to identify one or more equations which are able to determine a subset of endogenous variables priory and independently of the other equations and of the value taken by the remaining variables of the system. The first group of equations and variables are thus said to causally determine the remaining variables. In Pasinetti’s works, this notion of causality has often been emphasized as a formal property having the burden of conveying a profound economic meaning. In this paper, we will go through those works of Pasinetti where the notion of causality plays a central role, with the purpose of contextualizing it within the econometric debate of the Sixties, enucleate its economic meaning, and show its connections with other fields of the modern classical approach. Keywords: causality, interdependence, modern classical approach, Ricardo distribution theory, Keynes’s analysis, ‘given quantities’, surplus approach, structural dynamics, vertical integration. -
The Optimal Size of Government in Australia
THE OPTIMAL SIZE OF GOVERNMENT IN AUSTRALIA Anthony J Makin Griffith Business School Griffith University Gold Coast 4222 [email protected] Julian Pearce Economics and Finance School Advisory Committee QUT Brisbane 4000 [email protected] Shyama Ratnasiri Griffith Business School Griffith University Gold Coast 4222 [email protected] Paper presented at 2018 Australian Conference of Economists, Canberra, 10-13 July. 1 THE OPTIMAL SIZE OF GOVERNMENT IN AUSTRALIA Abstract In the extensive literature on the role of government in the economy scant attention has been paid to the influence of the relative size of government on an economy’s rate of growth. This paper canvasses perspectives on why the size of government has grown, how this affects the wider economy, and why a trade-off exists between increased government size and economic growth beyond some optimal level, as conveyed by the so-called BARS curve. The paper next examines in-depth trends in government spending in Australia which has grown to a historically high level of 37 per cent of national income post GFC before econometrically estimating the optimal size of government on Australia’s BARS curve using the ARMAX approach. The results suggest the share of government spending in Australia consistent with maximising economic growth is 31 per cent of national income, significantly below the current level of 37 per cent. JEL: H6 E62 Contents 1. Introduction 2. Perspectives on Government Size and Growth 3. The Growth of Government in Australia 4. Estimating Optimal Government Size for Australia 5. Conclusion 2 THE OPTIMAL SIZE OF GOVERNMENT IN AUSTRALIA 1. -
A Better Measure of Economic Growth: Gross Domestic Output (Gdo)
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS ISSUE BRIEF JULY 2015 A BETTER MEASURE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH: GROSS DOMESTIC OUTPUT (GDO) The growth of total economic output affects our assessment of current well-being as well as decisions about the future. Measuring the strength of the economy, however, can be difficult as it depends on surveys and administrative source data that are necessarily imperfect and incomplete. The total output of the economy can be measured in two distinct ways—Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which adds consumption, investment, government spending, and net exports; and Gross Domestic Income (GDI), which adds labor compensation, business profits, and other sources of income. In theory these two measures of output should be identical; however, they differ in practice because of measurement error. With today’s annual revision, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) began publishing a new measure of U.S. output—the “average of GDP and GDI”—which the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) will refer to as Gross Domestic Output (GDO).1 This issue brief describes GDO, reviews its recent trends, and explains why it can be a more accurate measure of current economic growth and a better predictor of future economic growth than either GDP or GDI alone. What is Gross Domestic Output (GDO)? The first estimate of quarterly GDP is released nearly a month after each quarter’s end. Owing to data lags, GDI What we are calling “GDO” is the average of two existing is generally first released nearly two months after series, the headline Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and quarter’s end, along with the second estimate of GDP.2 its lesser-known counterpart, Gross Domestic Income As a result, with today’s advance GDP release, GDI and (GDI). -
World Employment and Social Outlook Trends 2020 World Employment and Social Outlook
ILO Flagship Report World Employment and Social Outlook Outlook and Social Employment World – Trends 2020 Trends X World Employment and Social Outlook Trends 2020 World Employment and Social Outlook Trends 2020 International Labour Office • Geneva Copyright © International Labour Organization 2020 First published 2020 Publications of the International Labour Office enjoy copyright under Protocol 2 of the Universal Copyright Convention. Nevertheless, short excerpts from them may be reproduced without authorization, on condition that the source is indicated. For rights of reproduction or translation, application should be made to ILO Publications (Rights and Licensing), International Labour Office, CH-1211 Geneva 22, Switzerland, or by email: [email protected]. The International Labour Office welcomes such applications. Libraries, institutions and other users registered with a reproduction rights organization may make copies in accordance with the licences issued to them for this purpose. Visit www.ifrro.org to find the reproduction rights organization in your country. World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2020 International Labour Office – Geneva: ILO, 2020 ISBN 978-92-2-031408-1 (print) ISBN 978-92-2-031407-4 (web pdf) employment / unemployment / labour policy / labour market analysis / economic and social development / regional development / Africa / Asia / Caribbean / Europe / EU countries / Latin America / Middle East / North America / Pacific 13.01.3 ILO Cataloguing in Publication Data The designations employed in ILO publications, which are in conformity with United Nations practice, and the presentation of material therein do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the International Labour Office concerning the legal status of any country, area or territory or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers. -
Long-Term Unemployment and the 99Ers
Long-Term Unemployment and the 99ers An Emerging Issues Report from the January 2012 Long-Term Unemployment and the 99ers The Issue Long-term unemployment has been the most stubborn consequence of the Great Recession. In October 2011, more than two years after the Great Recession officially ended, the national unemployment rate stood at 9.0%, with Connecticut’s unemployment rate at 8.7%.1 Americans have been taught to connect the economic condition of the country or their state to the unemployment Millions of Americans— rate, but the national or state unemployment rate does not tell known as 99ers—have the real story. Concealed in those statistics is evidence of a exhausted their UI benefits, substantial and challenging structural change in the labor and their numbers grow market. Nationally, in July 2011, 31.8% of unemployed people every month. had been out of work for at least 52 weeks. In Connecticut, data shows 37% of the unemployed had been jobless for a year or more. By August 2011, the national average length of unemployment was a record 40 weeks.2 Many have been out of work far longer, with serious consequences. Even with federal extensions to Unemployment Insurance (UI), payments are available for a maximum of 99 weeks in some states; other states provide fewer (60-79) weeks. Millions of Americans—known as 99ers— have exhausted their UI benefits, and their numbers grow every month. By October 2011, approximately 2.9 million nationally had done so. Projections show that five million people will be 99ers, exhausting their benefits, by October 2012. -
Gdp and 'Modified Gni' – Explanatory Note
GDP AND ‘MODIFIED GNI’ – EXPLANATORY NOTE MAY 2018 Economic Division | GDP and ‘modified GNI’ – explanatory note Page | Contents Page Contents i Figures i Executive summary ii 1. Introduction and background 1 2. Conventional measures of economic activity 2 3. The disconnect between domestic income levels and GNP / GNI 4 3.1 Re-domiciled plcs / inversions 4 3.2 Aircraft leasing sector 5 3.3 On-shoring of intellectual property assets 5 4. Modified GNI 6 5. Key uses of modified GNI 8 6. Conclusion 11 Figures, boxes and appendices Page Figures Figure 1 ‘Walk’ from GDP to GNI 2 Figure 2 Difference between nominal GDP and GNI in the EU 3 Figure 3 GDP and modified GNI: 1995-2016 7 Figure 4 Difference between GNI and modified GNI: 1995-2016 8 Figure 5 Debt ratio 9 Boxes Box 1 Use of modified GNI – analysis of labour income share 10 Appendix Figure A1 Irish labour income share relative to EU average 12 Economic Division | GDP and ‘modified GNI’ – explanatory note Page | i Executive Summary Globalisation presents significant challenges in terms of measuring economic activity. While this is the case in most advanced economies, the issues are particularly acute in an Irish context, given the large multinational footprint. For policy-makers, there are additional challenges, most notably related to interpreting the real-time information embedded in standard, internationally- recognised metrics such as Gross Domestic Product and Gross National Income. Movements in these aggregates have become increasingly disconnected from actual trends in living standards in Ireland. New Irish-specific measures of activity – most notably ‘modified Gross National Income’ – attempt to control for (part of) the impact of globalisation on Irish macro-economic statistics. -
A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States
i A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States This guide presents information on the structure, definitions, and presentation that underlie the national income and product accounts (NIPAs) produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The NIPAs show the composition of production and the distribution of incomes earned in production. Thus, they represent a critical element of the U.S. economic accounts, which are designed to provide a consistent and comprehensive picture of the Na- tion’s economy. The NIPAs feature several widely followed measures of aggregate U.S. economic activity, includ- ing gross domestic product (GDP), gross domestic income (GDI), personal income, and personal saving among others. This guide is organized as follows: Background and History of the NIPAs ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Definitions and Classifications Underlying the NIPAs ............................................................................................................................................................................ 4 Real Output and Related Measures................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 15 Classifications of Production ...............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................