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Montana Senate Race Looks Competitive

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Montana Senate Race Looks Competitive FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE February 19, 2013 INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312 IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE E-MAIL [email protected], OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH OF THE PRESS RELEASE Montana Senate Race Looks Competitive Raleigh, N.C. – With potential threats in the 2014 Democratic primary and general election, Senator Max Baucus could have a difficult but not impossible road to re-election next year, according to PPP’s latest Montana poll. If former Gov. Brian Schweitzer decides to run for the Senate seat, he leads against Baucus 54% to 35% with Democratic primary voters. That support holds with moderate and liberal primary voters, and it represents a 15-point increase since PPP’s last poll on this match-up in September. Schweitzer’s +77 favorability rating (86/9) with Montana Democrats is also 19 points higher than Baucus’ +58 job approval rating (76/18). Baucus also trails two possible Republican challengers by 5 points—he’s down 44/49 against Steve Daines and 42/47 against Marc Racicot. Baucus holds leads against Tim Fox (46/43), Corey Stapleton (45/38) and Champ Edmunds (47/37), but these three potential GOP contenders all have name recognition below 50%. General election voters narrowly disapprove of Baucus’ job performance 48% to 45%. 56% of voters have a favorable view of Schweitzer while 37% have an unfavorable opinion. Schweitzer’s popularity extends across party lines—83% of Democrats, 20% of Republicans and 40% of independents approve of Baucus to 93% of Democrats, 26% of Republicans and 57% of independents who have a favorable view of Schweitzer. Schweitzer also performs better against his potential Republican opponents. He trails Racicot by just 1 point (45/46) and leads the other four GOP candidates by 3 to 15 points. Nancy Keenan, the former NARAL president, leads Edmunds by 5 points (41/36) and is tied with Stapleton at 40%, but she trails the other three candidates by 5 to 12 points. “The Montana Senate race has the potential to be competitive,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Republicans might need a stronger candidate than Corey Stapleton or Champ Edmunds though.” PPP surveyed 1,011 Montana voters and 371 usual Democratic primary voters from February 15th to 17th. The margin of error for the overall sample is +/-3.1% and +/-5.1% for the Democratic portion. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. Phone: 888 621-6988 Public Policy Polling 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com Raleigh, NC 27604 Email: [email protected] Montana Survey Results Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Max Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Baucus' job performance? of Corey Stapleton? Approve .......................................................... 45% Favorable........................................................ 15% Disapprove...................................................... 48% Unfavorable .................................................... 19% Not sure .......................................................... 7% Not sure .......................................................... 66% Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Congressman Steve Daines' job performance? of Brian Schweitzer? Approve .......................................................... 35% Favorable........................................................ 56% Disapprove...................................................... 31% Unfavorable .................................................... 37% Not sure .......................................................... 35% Not sure .......................................................... 7% Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Q9 If the candidates for Senate were Democrat of Champ Edmunds? Max Baucus and Republican Steve Daines, who would you vote for? Favorable........................................................ 4% Max Baucus.................................................... 44% Unfavorable .................................................... 16% Steve Daines .................................................. 49% Not sure .......................................................... 80% Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Not sure .......................................................... 7% of Tim Fox? Q10 If the candidates for Senate were Democrat 23% Max Baucus and Republican Champ Favorable........................................................ Edmunds, who would you vote for? Unfavorable .................................................... 23% Max Baucus.................................................... 47% Not sure .......................................................... 54% Champ Edmunds ............................................ 37% Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Nancy Keenan? Not sure .......................................................... 16% 38% Q11 If the candidates for Senate were Democrat Favorable........................................................ Max Baucus and Republican Tim Fox, who Unfavorable .................................................... 26% would you vote for? Not sure .......................................................... 36% Max Baucus.................................................... 46% Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Tim Fox........................................................... 43% of Marc Racicot? Not sure .......................................................... 11% Favorable........................................................ 41% Unfavorable .................................................... 32% Not sure .......................................................... 27% February 15-17, 2013 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Survey of 1,011 Montana voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Q12 If the candidates for Senate were Democrat Q18 If the candidates for Senate were Democrat Max Baucus and Republican Marc Racicot, Nancy Keenan and Republican Corey who would you vote for? Stapleton, who would you vote for? Max Baucus.................................................... 42% Nancy Keenan ................................................ 40% Marc Racicot................................................... 47% Corey Stapleton .............................................. 40% Not sure .......................................................... 11% Not sure .......................................................... 20% Q13 If the candidates for Senate were Democrat Q19 If the candidates for Senate were Democrat Max Baucus and Republican Corey Stapleton, Brian Schweitzer and Republican Steve who would you vote for? Daines, who would you vote for? Max Baucus.................................................... 45% Brian Schweitzer............................................. 48% Corey Stapleton .............................................. 38% Steve Daines .................................................. 45% Not sure .......................................................... 16% Not sure .......................................................... 7% Q14 If the candidates for Senate were Democrat Q20 If the candidates for Senate were Democrat Nancy Keenan and Republican Steve Daines, Brian Schweitzer and Republican Champ who would you vote for? Edmunds, who would you vote for? Nancy Keenan ................................................ 39% Brian Schweitzer............................................. 52% Steve Daines .................................................. 49% Champ Edmunds ............................................ 37% Not sure .......................................................... 12% Not sure .......................................................... 12% Q15 If the candidates for Senate were Democrat Q21 If the candidates for Senate were Democrat Nancy Keenan and Republican Champ Brian Schweitzer and Republican Tim Fox, who Edmunds, who would you vote for? would you vote for? Nancy Keenan ................................................ 41% Brian Schweitzer............................................. 49% Champ Edmunds ............................................ 36% Tim Fox........................................................... 43% Not sure .......................................................... 23% Not sure .......................................................... 8% Q16 If the candidates for Senate were Democrat Q22 If the candidates for Senate were Democrat Nancy Keenan and Republican Tim Fox, who Brian Schweitzer and Republican Marc would you vote for? Racicot, who would you vote for? Nancy Keenan ................................................ 40% Brian Schweitzer............................................. 45% Tim Fox........................................................... 45% Marc Racicot................................................... 46% Not sure .......................................................... 15% Not sure .......................................................... 9% Q17 If the candidates for Senate were Democrat Q23 If the candidates for Senate were Democrat Nancy Keenan and Republican Marc Racicot, Brian Schweitzer and Republican Corey who would you vote for? Stapleton, who would you vote for? Nancy Keenan ................................................ 38% Brian Schweitzer............................................. 49% Marc
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