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CITIC Securities 2018 11 Jun 2018 China A-Share Market Weekly Market Strategy Going where the resistance is little Macroeconomics Why does PBoC expand the scope of MLF collaterals? Stock Recommendations Chuangxin New Material Yinlun Machinery Asymchem Laboratories Wanhua Chemical CITIC Securities Brokerage (HK) Limited Investment Advisory Services Tel：2237 9250 Please refer to the attachment for detailed disclaimer and regulatory disclosures E-mail：[email protected] csb.com.hk CONTENTS: Marke t Stra tegy Going where the resistance is little In view of current macro uncertainties by the dozen, the A-share market has little change to expand meaningfully. Investors will shun sectors with macro overhangs and move towards those with the least resistance. Macroeconomics Why does PBoC expand the scope of MLF collaterals? A wider scope of MLF collaterals will add to the flexibility and operability of MLFs, improve the central bank’s monetary policy framework and send out a signal of easing credit risk. Weekly Top Pick Price Target Stop Loss Upside Company (Rmb) (Rmb) (Rmb) (%) Chuangxin New Material 50.13 71.60 47.6 43 (002812 CH) Yinlun Machinery 9.85 12.50 9.4 27 (002126 CH) Asymchem Laboratories 90.15 106.80 85.6 18 (002821 CH) Wanhua Chemical 47.44 54.24 45.1 14 (600309 CH) China A-Share Market Weekly: Market China A-Share Going the where resistance is little Chuangxin New Material 2 11 Jun 2018 Source: Respective Company, CS Please refer to the attachment for detailed disclaimer and regulatory disclosures. MARKET STRATEGY: Going where the resistance is little n the A-share market, a large number of overhangs – the Section 301 investigation starting this week, the FOMC Imeeting, the Trump-Kim meeting, release of China’s May 2018E economic data, issuance of the CDR fund products, giant IPOs and so forth – are slated to subdue short-term performance. We reiterate our view that the market will overlook sectors more likely to be affected by macro uncertainties and choose directions with the least resistance. China A-Share Market Weekly: Market China A-Share Going the where resistance is little 3 11 Jun 2018 Please refer to the attachment for detailed disclaimer and regulatory disclosures. MACROECONOMICS: Why does PBoC expand the scope of MLF collaterals? n 1 Jun 2018, the People’s Bank of size, we believe the move carries Oof China (PBoC) announced to significance more as a symbol than expand the scope of MLF collaterals as actual quantitative easing. means to help increase the flexibility and operability of MLFs, improve the PBoC’s monetary policy framework and ease the credit risk by issuing a signal of support. We are of the opinion that this does not equal to quantitative easing. Given the potential gap between operable and theoretical MLF operation in terms China A-Share Market Weekly: Market China A-Share Going the where resistance is little 4 11 Jun 2018 Source: CS Please refer to the attachment for detailed disclaimer and regulatory disclosures. MARKET REVIEW & TECHINICAL: CITIC S&P 50 Market Review: On Monday, home (Index) appliances and liquor stocks rallied, Index 3,238.81 leading the Shanghai Composite 3,900 3,852.92/2,771.64 52-wk high/low Index (SCI) up to hover at elevated 3,800 50/100/200D MA 3,299.0/3,450.4/3,333.5 RSI (14D) 52.1 levels throughout the day, closing 3,700 MACD (12/26D)/Signal -5.72/-12.90 with a 0.5% gain. On Tuesday, the SCI 3,600 opened low and fluctuated within 3,500 a narrow range before a rebound 3,400 in steel and port names brought it 3,300 back to the positive territory, allowing 3,200 it to close approximately flat. On 3,100 Wednesday, the Shanghai gauge started low and jolted downwards to 1/2/18 6/2/18 9/2/18 1/3/18 6/3/18 9/3/18 4/4/18 4/5/18 9/5/18 4/6/18 7/6/18 16/1/18 19/1/18 24/1/18 29/1/18 14/2/18 26/2/18 14/3/18 19/3/18 22/3/18 27/3/18 30/3/18 11/4/18 16/4/18 19/4/18 24/4/18 27/4/18 14/5/18 17/5/18 22/5/18 25/5/18 30/5/18 almost 3,100 points. In the afternoon, Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH), surging to its record high, brought the CITIC S&P 300 benchmark index out of the red to (Index) Index 3,325.44 finish largely flat. On Thursday, the SCI 3,900 52-wk high/low 3,846.60/3,042.97 opened high. Cyclicals such as steel 3,800 50/100/200D MA 3,399.6/3,518.8/3,471.8 RSI (14D) 49.5 and coal counters and the financial 3,700 MACD (12/26D)/Signal -10.10/-11.59 sector put up a brisk performance. 3,600 The SCI remained in the positive 3,500 in the morning but retreated after 3,400 lunch, shedding 0.2%. On Friday, a 3,300 lower open of the SCI was followed 3,200 by constant decline. Correction took 3,100 place across financial and cyclical sectors and the SCI sank 1.4%. Over 1/2/18 6/2/18 9/2/18 1/3/18 6/3/18 9/3/18 4/4/18 4/5/18 9/5/18 4/6/18 7/6/18 16/1/18 19/1/18 24/1/18 29/1/18 14/2/18 26/2/18 14/3/18 19/3/18 22/3/18 27/3/18 30/3/18 11/4/18 16/4/18 19/4/18 24/4/18 27/4/18 14/5/18 17/5/18 22/5/18 25/5/18 30/5/18 the week, CITIC/S&P 50 and CITIC/ S&P 300 inched up 0.7% and 0.4%, respectively. Technical analysis: The technical trends of CITIC/S&P 50 and CITIC/S&P 300 stabilized, with their RSI in the vicinity of 50, indicating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. We expect the two stock indices to find support in the short term at 3,000 and 3,200 points, respectively. Source: Bloomberg, CS China A-Share Market Weekly: Market China A-Share Going the where resistance is little 5 11 Jun 2018 Please refer to the attachment for detailed disclaimer and regulatory disclosures. STOCK RECOmmENDATIONS: (A Shenzhen-HK Stock Connect Northbound Stock) Chuangxin New Material Target Price: Rmb71.6 Upside: 43% First-mover advantage huangxin New Material (002812 the Company’s core business. Riding on Share Price Performance CH) announced that its proposal a strong NEV market, the Company will C (Share price/Rmb) 62 to acquire wet membrane separator make use of its technology and order 60 leader SEMCORP to explore the NEV advantages to maintain its leading status 58 56 industry chain has received regulatory in the wet membrane separator market, 54 52 approval. Upon completion of the deal, sustaining rapid increases in both orders 50 wet membrane separator will become and earnings. Meanwhile, the Company 48 46 has already cut into 44 the supply chain 3/5/18 7/5/18 9/5/18 4/6/18 6/6/18 8/6/18 of overseas battery 23/4/18 25/4/18 27/4/18 11/5/18 15/5/18 17/5/18 21/5/18 23/5/18 25/5/18 29/5/18 31/5/18 manufacturers and Price/Target/Stop Loss 50.13/71.60/47.60 52 Weeks High/Low 70.485/32.530 is poised to realize 50/100/200D MA 56.22/53.16/54.36 exponential growth RSI (14D) 41.5 in overseas orders MACD (12/26D)/Signal -1.78/-1.60 in 2018-19E. 2017E PER (x) 28.0 Company: Chuangxin New Material manufactures packaging materials. The Company produces and sells printing packages, plastic films, and special packaging papers around the world. China A-Share Market Weekly: Market China A-Share Going the where resistance is little 6 11 Jun 2018 Source: Bloomberg, Respective Company, CS * Closing prices as of 8 Jun 2018 Please refer to the attachment for detailed disclaimer and regulatory disclosures. Risk Rating: 1 to 5 in ascending order STOCK RECOmmENDATIONS: (A Shenzhen-HK Stock Connect Northbound Stock) Yinlun Machinery Target Price: Rmb12.5 Upside: 27% A future leader in auto thermal management Share Price Performance inlun Machinery (002126 CH) from future mainstream NEV platforms sees its passenger vehicle division such as Geely PMA, which could help (Share price/Rmb) Y 10.4 10.2 expanding swiftly while the NEV the counter advance from “valuation 10.0 9.8 business grows persistently on orders discount” to “undemanding valuation”. In 9.6 9.4 view of the multiples 9.2 9.0 of comparable plays 8.8 8.6 and the pace of the 8.4 8.2 Company’s earnings recovery, we set target 3/5/18 7/5/18 9/5/18 4/6/18 6/6/18 8/6/18 23/4/18 25/4/18 27/4/18 11/5/18 15/5/18 17/5/18 21/5/18 23/5/18 25/5/18 29/5/18 31/5/18 at Rmb12.5, implying Price/Target/Stop Loss 9.85/12.50/9.40 2018E PER of 25x. We 52 Weeks High/Low 10.99/8.40 recommend following 50/100/200D MA 9.31/9.24/9.57 RSI (14D) 53.9 the stock.
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