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China Connect Weekly 2019 21 Jan 2019 China Connect Weekly Market Strategy The A-share mapping of the STI Board Macroeconomics No improvement in banks’ risk appetite Stock Recommendations CMSK Pinggao Electric Sunner Development Nari Technology CITIC Securities Brokerage (HK) Limited Investment Advisory Services Tel：2237 9250 Please refer to the attachment for detailed disclaimer and regulatory disclosures E-mail：[email protected] csb.com.hk CONTENTS: Marke t Stra tegy The A-share mapping of the STI Board The Science and Technology Innovation Board (STI Board) is expected to be rolled out by end- 2Q19E at the earliest, with guidance projects from brokerage firms the most likely pilot shares. Macroeconomics No improvement in banks’ risk appetite The recovery of local special bonds and bond market may help Jan 2018E social financing stabilize briefly. Weekly Top Pick Price Target Stop Loss Upside Company (Rmb) (Rmb) (Rmb) (%) CMSK CMSK 18.39 26.77 17.5 46 (001979 CH) Pinggao Electric 8.44 10.40 8.0 23 (600312 CH) Sunner Development 18.40 21.40 17.5 16 (002299 CH) Nari Technology 19.39 22.00 18.4 13 (600406 CH) China Connect Weekly: mapping A-share The the STI of Board 2 21 Jan 2019 Source: Respective Company, CS Please refer to the attachment for detailed disclaimer and regulatory disclosures. MARKET STRATEGY: The A-share mapping of the STI Board he A-share market’s Science and have the opportunity to become protection; (iv) biomedicine; and (v) TTechnology Innovation Board public, in our view, but they are not technology services. We expect the (STI Board) is expected to come likely to be among the first pilots. The incremental market reform of the STI into being the end of 2Q19E at the IPO-related requirements are both Board will accelerate the relaxation of earliest. The first batch of pilot stocks more stringent and more flexible A-share M&As. are most likely guidance projects than those for the NEEQ. According from brokerage firms. Most of these to the latest policy announcement, projects are sufficiently profitable the STI Board will focus on five to be listed on A-share bourses and industrial areas: (i) next-generation capable of meeting the requirements information technology; (ii) high- as specified in Rule 51 for regulatory end equipment manufacturing approval. Internet start-ups, typically and new materials; (iii) new energy, of red-chip and VIE structures, still conservation and environmental China Connect Weekly: mapping A-share The the STI of Board 3 21 Jan 2019 Please refer to the attachment for detailed disclaimer and regulatory disclosures. MACROECONOMICS: No improvement in banks’ risk appetite n Dec 2018, China’s credits and weighing on the sustainability of M2 Iloans increased by Rmb1.08trn, new rebound. Along with recovering local social financing tallied Rmb1.59trn special bonds and the bond market, and M2 was up 8.1% YoY. Overall, the social financing in Jan 2018E may increase in bills boosted the volume stabilize temporarily. of lending in the last month of the year, while improvement in direct financing and more loan write-offs combine to pushed up incremental social financing. On the other hand, the decline in off-balance- sheet financing deepened, indirectly China Connect Weekly: mapping A-share The the STI of Board 4 21 Jan 2019 Source: CS Please refer to the attachment for detailed disclaimer and regulatory disclosures. MARKET REVIEW & TECHINICAL: CITIC S&P 50 Market Review: On Monday, both (Index) Index 2,858.43 Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses 3,150 52-wk high/low 3,852.92/2,657.51 3,100 50/100/200D MA 2,820.8/2,875.4/3,009.2 fluctuated downward, with the 3,050 RSI (14D) 54.2 Shanghai Composite Index (SCI) MACD (12/26D)/Signal -6.55/-23.94 3,000 recording a 0.71% loss. On Tuesday, 2,950 2,900 the two markets diverged at opening. 2,850 Stocks hovered within a narrow band 2,800 before the consumer and financial 2,750 2,700 sectors staged a rally near the lunch 2,650 break, pushing up the broad market 2,600 and allowing the SCI to collect 1.36% at the close. On Wednesday, the 4/1/19 9/1/19 3/9/18 6/9/18 29/8/18 11/9/18 14/9/18 19/9/18 25/9/18 28/9/18 5/11/18 8/11/18 4/12/18 7/12/18 14/1/19 17/1/19 10/10/18 15/10/18 18/10/18 23/10/18 26/10/18 31/10/18 13/11/18 16/11/18 21/11/18 26/11/18 29/11/18 12/12/18 17/12/18 20/12/18 25/12/18 28/12/18 markets started low, climbed and went into a consolidation mode. The Shanghai gauge finished flat. CITIC S&P 300 Thursday morning saw one bourse (Index) Index 2,783.43 open high and one low. Stock indices 3,100 52-wk high/low 3,846.60/2,607.72 moved north on the strength of 3,050 50/100/200D MA 2,761.4/2,817.4/3,018.7 financial shares but pulled back in the 3,000 RSI (14D) 52.8 2,950 MACD (12/26D)/Signal -7.02/-21.47 afternoon. The SCI shed 0.42%. On 2,900 Friday, the markets fluctuated and 2,850 2,800 ascended after lunch, with the SCI 2,750 adding 1.42%. In the week, CITIC/S&P 2,700 50 and CITIC/S&P 300 advanced 2.9% 2,650 2,600 and 2.3%, respectively. 2,550 Technical analysis: The technical 3/9/18 6/9/18 4/1/19 9/1/19 trends of CITIC/S&P 50 and CITIC/ 29/8/18 11/9/18 14/9/18 19/9/18 25/9/18 28/9/18 5/11/18 8/11/18 4/12/18 7/12/18 14/1/19 17/1/19 10/10/18 15/10/18 18/10/18 23/10/18 26/10/18 31/10/18 13/11/18 16/11/18 21/11/18 26/11/18 29/11/18 12/12/18 17/12/18 20/12/18 25/12/18 28/12/18 S&P 300 stiffened more, sending both indices into the bull zone. We expect the index pair to jolt upwards in the near term. Source: Bloomberg, CS China Connect Weekly: mapping A-share The the STI of Board 5 21 Jan 2019 Please refer to the attachment for detailed disclaimer and regulatory disclosures. STOCK RECOmmENDATIONS: (A Shenzhen-HK Stock Connect Northbound Stock) CMSK Target Price: Rmb26.77 Upside: 46% Share Price Performance Repurchase reflects confidence MSK (001979 CH) repurchased Rmb23.12. The scale of the repurchase 19.5 (Share price/Rmb) 19.2 Cstocks accounting for 2.19% of shows that the Company is confident 18.9 18.6 its total shares capital for Rmb2-4bn, over its share valuation going forward. 18.3 18.0 equaling approximately to 8-16 days of Real estate shares typically perform 17.7 17.4 trading volume of late. The price per better post-repurchase. Half of the stocks 17.1 share repurchased was no higher than repurchased this time will be used as 16.8 16.5 incentives, which should further 2/1/19 4/1/19 8/1/19 3/12/18 5/12/18 7/12/18 10/1/19 14/1/19 16/1/19 18/1/19 11/12/18 13/12/18 17/12/18 19/12/18 21/12/18 25/12/18 27/12/18 sharpen the Price/Target/Stop Loss 18.39/26.77/17.50 competitive edge 52 Weeks High/Low 27.38/16.10 of the incentive 50/100/200D MA 18.07/17.87/19.06 RSI (14D) 59.5 mechanism. We MACD (12/26D)/Signal 0.00/-0.14 suggest follow 2018E PER (x) 8.9 this counter. Company: CMSK is engaged in integrated development of industrial parks. The Company conducts land and real estate development and management, science and technology venture capital and fund management. (A Shenzhen-HK Stock Connect Northbound Stock) Sunner Development Target Price: Rmb21.4 Upside: 16% Escalating swine fever epidemic to raise chicken market climate ccording to government was China’s first case of swine epidemic Share Price Performance Adocuments from Siyang County, in a large-scale pig farm, escalated by 18.6 (股价/人民币) Jiangsu Province, the African Swine Fever the fact that it happened in a farm that 18.3 18.0 breakout took place in a pig farm under produces breeding boars. The breeding 17.7 17.4 Jiangsu Jiahua Breeding Boar Ltd. Co. This capacity of sows in 2020E will be affected. 17.1 16.8 A decline in pork 16.5 16.2 supply will stoke 15.9 15.6 demand for chicken 15.3 and higher prices 2/1/19 4/1/19 8/1/19 3/12/18 5/12/18 7/12/18 10/1/19 14/1/19 16/1/19 18/1/19 for the white meat. 11/12/18 13/12/18 17/12/18 19/12/18 21/12/18 25/12/18 27/12/18 We recommend Price/Target/Stop Loss 18.4/21.4/17.5 52 Weeks High/Low 18.80/11.95 chicken business 50/100/200D MA 17.03/16.71/16.15 player Sunner RSI (14D) 66.9 Development MACD (12/26D)/Signal 0.38/0.23 2018E PER (x) 14.8 (002299 CH).
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