SHIPPING and SHIPBUILDING MARKETS Contents
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2016 ANNUAL REVIEW SHIPPING AND SHIPBUILDING MARKETS Contents Shipbuilding p.05 Cruise p.81 Dry Bulk p.31 Yachting p.87 Tanker p.43 Containerships p.93 Chemical & Ro-Ro p.105 Small Tankers p.55 LPG p.63 Car carrier p.111 Marine LNG p.69 insurance p.117 Offshore p.75 An online version of this Annual Review is available in English, Chinese and French. www.brsbrokers.com Profi le The BRS Group is a diversifi ed global shipping services group offering a Employees range of maritime activities which worldwide complement its core shipbroking business. In addition to Shipbroking and Yacht Brokerage, the Group’s activities include Marine Insurance, Shipbrokers Freight Futures (FFA’s), Software Technology and Market Intelligence. Assets transactions per year Chartering transactions per year BRS - 2016 ANNUAL REVIEW 1 2 BRS - 2016 ANNUAL REVIEW The year 2015 has been as bad as expected. Each actor made its decisions as if it was the only Shipping in all its forms has lost its lustre. We one in its market. But the markets do not expand estimate some $65bn in underlying market value indefi nitely. We are waking up to a maritime sector has been lost in shipping assets over 2015. that was being dimensioned to meet the demand This year saw historic (adjusted) lows or near lows, of an adolescent China with mature Western in almost all market sectors except tankers. Only economies weaned off energy consumption, and the tanker markets defi ed predictions: despite an the expected globalisation of trade. Today there oversupply of new tonnage, they remained strong, is a realisation that it is not only the cost of energy but fragile on the back of an unforeseen and that will drive world trade, but the consequences of unprecedented fall in oil prices... global warming. With COP 21 closing a year of turmoil on the energy Although pollution from transportation is lower than markets, there is a global realisation that our energy from heat production or industrial processes it is appetite has to be restrained. Whether it be coal, oil evident nevertheless that shipping will be required or gas, some 40% of world transportation concerns to find new ways to meet aggressive targets. The raw materials that have fuelled the industrial Sulphur Emission Control Area (SECA) zones are just revolution and our globalisation. This is not good for the beginning. The International Maritime Organisation shipping! There are already major consequences and International Chamber of Commerce are actively taking place, and we expect them to accelerate working to participate, and now with the Tier 3 emission over the year to come… Coal and oil companies limit, the Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) are switching their emphasis to renewables. and Oil Discharge Monitoring Equipment (ODME) Energy conservation is no longer just a slogan, have tangible results to show. But there will surely there are now tangible targets. And despite a fall be more: speed limits, or high tech development by in energy costs to post-China expansion lows, this the yards and designers, new fuel types with less potential economic stimulus has done nothing to pollutants, port or State control measurements, and restore world trade. The mining industry has seen CO2 limits per ton/teu transported. its product’s prices collapse. Demand has been Our industry, which represents about 2.5% of cut more than expected by the double effect of global greenhouse gas emissions, is way behind sluggish economies and China’s refocus away from the car and airline industries in seeking cleaner heavy industry. transportation solutions. Will shipping contracts be Consolidation is no longer good enough. awarded to companies that pollute less, will there Elimination has already started with coal and iron be tangible premiums for industrial users of freight ore mines closing, steel mills shutting and power to choose low pollutant carriers? The carbon credit plants being mothballed. Shipping companies system in its infancy might just allow the start of a have gone under, leaving their assets in the hands redistribution but it will be the companies themselves, of new owners with cheaper capital costs. Yards pushed by their investors and consumers seeking have closed and others have been rationalised. a commercial advantage from lowering global The irony of our situation is that the industry emissions, that will allow our world to change. thought that by building bigger, less energy would Our industry needs to put in place objective and be consumed per ton or per teu transported, measurable standards on a worldwide scale. We and thus we would be more effi cient. The mining need to work with international organisations to industry players thought that by producing more, ensure there is a premium for polluting less. Our they could bring down their breakeven point and industry needs to get its act together and thus grow their market shares. Shipping companies fi nd a medium term solution to our current crisis. ordered new ships also to average down their Putting a premium on lowering pollution will have breakeven, while yards built more, faster. several effects. It will strengthen the emphasis on research and development, it will incite owners to scrap outdated vessels, it will encourage financiers to calculate with shorter life cycles, it will incentivise end users to choose the least damaging mode of transportation for their goods, and thus it will enable charterers to seek out and Energy conservation pay extra for less polluting carriers. The world, our is no longer just a slogan, maritime world, really needs this change. Tim JONES there are now tangible targets. President BRS - 2016 ANNUAL REVIEW 3 Erradale, 39,800 dwt B.Delta Box Logger Grabber Bulkcarrier. Second unit delivered in 2014 out of a large series ordered by CNCo at Chengxi Shipyard and operated by Swire Bulk. Here pictured sailing through Shanghai in 2015. 04 BRS - 2016 ANNUAL REVIEW Shipbuilding A tempestuous year 2015 felt as if a cyclone had fi nally caught up the whole shipbuilding industry. It slashed down dry bulker newbuilding orders to lows not seen since 2001 amidst a landscape of gloomy bulk freight rates and endlessly freefalling second hand values. Surprisingly, as if these two ship types were safe in the eye of the storm, newbuilding orders for containerships and tankers reached new highs. This made 2015 the second best year for containerships and the fourth best year for tankers over the last 15 years, just behind the most dynamic boom years (2007-2008). BRS - 2016 ANNUAL REVIEW 05 SHIPBUIILLDING Marlin Azurite One of the eight 50,000 dwt MR Tankers under construction at GSI Global Trade and World GDP and Active Fleet Growth (Guangzhou Shipyard International) in China for Oil and Commodity Trader TRAFIGURA BV % 12% 9.6% 10% 8.6% 8% 6.7% 9.6% 6.2% 6% 4.5% 4.2% 3.9% 5.4% 3.2% 3.5% 4% 4.2% 3.4% 3.4% 3.2% 2% 2.6% 3.3% 3.4% 0.0% 3.1% 0% -2% -4% -4.0% -6% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 World GDP Seaborne Trade World Active Fleet Growth (Excl Offshore) Source: BRS, IMF & Clarksons •l % Key points of 2015 the size, thanks to a strong demand for these -20 types of vessels. Newbuilding orders continued to fall (about 20% Drop in number of y-o-y) while remaining solid at levels above the 2014 2015 Ships 1,691 1,359 orders between post-boom years of 2009-2012 (yearly average of Orders 70m dwt), and slightly exceeded (by about 10%) m dwt 131.1 104.7 2014 and 2015 Ships 1,338 1,402 the deliveries of the year. Delivery m dwt 88 94.2 After three years of continuous decrease, shipyard Ships 4,178 3,823 % deliveries increased by about 7%, due to the high Orderbook 7 m dwt 305.1 286 peak of contracting in 2013 (149m dwt). The world Increase in Ships 36,179 36,650 orderbook decreased by about 6% while the active Active Fleet m dwt 1,644 1,706.1 number of fl eet grew albeit moderately (about 3.5%). Ships 12% 10% Orderbook/Active Fleet deliveries At the start of 2016, the percentage of newbuilding m dwt 19% 17% between 2014 orders versus the active fleet declined further compared with the previous two years, reaching a The orderbook ranking in deadweight tons of the and 2015 low of 17% compared to a 53% peak in 2008. five major shipbuilding areas did not change in 2015: China was still in the lead (43%), followed by Orders decreased for the second consecutive Korea (29%), Japan (22%), Rest of the Word (RoW) % year. Bulker orders, which remain the largest (5%) and Europe (2%). However China, whose 43 single segment of the shipbuilding industry, main ship production consists of bulkers, saw its China market well ahead of tankers and containerships, market share decline to the benefi t of Japan which experienced a collapse. Added to this, the fall in share for orders was able to offer highly competitive pricing due second hand prices exacerbated the competition to the depreciation of the yen. This was the first placed in 2015 between shipbuilding nations and shipyards. time China’s market share had declined since it in dwt terms Some shipyards were unable to take any orders became the largest shipbuilding nation in 2010. during the year and that increased the pressure on newbuilding prices. As from the beginning Meanwhile, several Korean shipyards, already of 2015, bulker prices plummeted continuously, weakened by the prevailing low newbuilding losing on average 10%, and thus returning to the prices, ran into financial troubles because of historically low levels recorded at the end of 2012.