Corsham Rail Station

Initial Feasibility - Interim Report (Stages 1 and 2)

Wiltshire Council

3 December 2015

Corsham Rail Station Initial Feasibility - Interim Report (Stages 1 and 2)

Notice

This document and its contents have been prepared and are intended solely for Wiltshire Council’s information and use in relation to the Corsham Rail Station (Initial Feasibility) project.

Atkins Ltd assumes no responsibility to any other party in respect of or arising out of or in connection with this document and/or its contents.

This document has 56 pages including the cover.

Document history

Job number: Document ref: v3.0 Revision Purpose description Originated Checked Reviewed Authorised Date Rev 3.0 Revision 3 amends SH/BW/TH/JA TH / JA NW CM 03/12/15 Rev 2.0 Revision 2 amends SH/BW/TH/JA TH / JA NW CM 09/11/15 Rev 1.0 Draft Report- Issue 1 (for SH/BW/TH/JA TH / JA NW /WL CM 14/10/15 discussion / comment)

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Client Wiltshire Council

Project Corsham Rail Station Initial Feasibility

Document title Corsham Rail Station Initial Feasibility - Interim Report (Stages 1 and 2)

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Corsham Rail Station Initial Feasibility - Interim Report (Stages 1 and 2)

Table of contents

Chapter Pages 1. Introduction and Background 1 1.1. Introduction 1 1.2. Background context 1 1.3. Study Scope and Approach 2 1.4. Report Structure 3 1.5. Technical Notes 4 2. Document Review and Policy Alignment 5 3. Service Option Development 6 3.1. Option Identification 6 3.2. Option Assumptions 6 4. Operational Analysis 8 4.1. Introduction 8 4.2. Methodology & Assumptions 8 4.3. Current Situation 8 4.4. Impact of Proposed Services 11 4.5. Additional Infrastructure Required 16 4.6. Summary 19 5. Demand and Revenue 20 5.1. Introduction 20 5.2. Methodology 20 5.3. Baselining 24 5.4. Demand Forecasting Results 27 6. Operating Costs 34 6.1. Introduction 34 6.2. Methodology & Assumptions 34 6.3. Operating Costs Results 35 7. Financial Viability 38 7.1. Introduction 38 7.2. Financial Viability Estimate 38 7.3. Demand sensitivities 41 8. Capital Cost Estimates 45 8.1. Introduction 45 8.2. Station Construction Cost 45 8.3. Cost of Additional Infrastructure 47 9. Conclusions and Next Steps 49 9.1. Key Findings 49 9.2. Next Steps 50

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Corsham Rail Station Initial Feasibility - Interim Report (Stages 1 and 2)

Tables Table 1-1 Staged Study Approach 2 Table 1-2 Supporting Technical Notes 4 Table 3-1 Potential Service Options 6 Table 4-1 Summary of Rail Services Between Bath and Chippenham 9 Table 4-2 Summary of Rail Services Between Wootton Bassett & Swindon 10 Table 4-3 Summary of Rail Services Between Bristol Temple Meads & Bath Spa 10 Table 5-1 Corsham: Drivers of Change 23 Table 5-2 Travel to Work (Usual Residential and Workplace Populations) 24 Table 5-3 Chippenham Station Annual Demand (2014/15) 26 Table 5-4 Corsham Station Demand Forecasts (2014/15 demand and prices) 27 Table 5-5 Royal Wootton Bassett Station Demand Forecasts (2014/15 demand and prices) 29 Table 5-6 Service Demand (2014/15 demand, revenue and prices) 30 Table 5-7 Service Generated Revenue (£000s) with New Station Options (2014/15 demand and revenue) 31 Table 5-8 Annual Service Revenue Growth (£000s, 2014/15 Prices) 32 Table 6-1 Corsham Annual Station Operating Costs (£000s, 2014/15 prices) 35 Table 6-2 Total Annual Operating Costs (£000s, 2014/15 prices) 36 Table 6-3 Forecast Operating Costs (£000s, 2014/15 prices) 37 Table 7-1 Service Options Net Cost (£000s, 2014/15 demand, revenue & prices) 38 Table 7-2 Service Options Annual Net Cost (£000s, 2014/15 demand, revenue & prices) 41 Table 7-3 High/Low Demand Scenarios 42 Table 7-4 High/Low Demand Scenarios -Service Options Annual Net Cost (£000s, 2014/15 prices) 43 Table 8-1 Definitions of Station Categorisation 45 Table 8-2 High Level Specification for Proposed Corsham Station 46 Table 8-3 Corsham Station Indicative Capital Cost Estimate 47 Table 8-4 Benchmarking of Corsham CAPEX with other UK Stations 47

Figures Figure 1-1 Map of Corsham Station and the Surrounding Rail Network ...... 2 Figure 3-1 Corsham Station Service Options Summary ...... 7 Figure 4-1 Map of Corsham Station and the Surrounding Rail Network ...... 9 Figure 4-2 Standard Hour Train Pathing Diagram (current timetable, Cardiff – Bristol – Oxford) ...... 12 Figure 4-3 Standard Hour Train Pathing Diagram (current timetable, Oxford – Bristol – Cardiff) ...... 13 Figure 4-4 Map of Junctions in the Didcot Area ...... 14 Figure 4-5 Standard Hour Train Pathing Diagram (IEP timetable, Wootton Bassett – Didcot) ...... 15 Figure 4-6 Standard Hour Train Pathing Diagram (IEP timetable, Didcot – Wootton Bassett) ...... 16 Figure 4-7 Platform Availability at Bristol Temple Meads ...... 17 Figure 4-8 Platform Availability at Cardiff Central ...... 17 Figure 4-9 Platform Availability at Swindon ...... 18 Figure 4-10 Potential Revised Layout for Chippenham Station ...... 18 Figure 5-1 Demand Forecasting Overview ...... 20 Figure 5-2 Existing Travel-to-Work Rail Mode Share from Corsham and Chippenham (MSOAs) ...... 25

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Corsham Rail Station Initial Feasibility - Interim Report (Stages 1 and 2)

1. Introduction and Background

1.1. Introduction Atkins has been commissioned by Wiltshire Council to undertake initial high level feasibility work in relation to the potential re-opening of a Corsham rail station. In order to secure commitment from the Treasury and Network Rail for such a scheme, a Project Inception Report (PIR) would be required, in line with the guidance for investing in new or existing stations: ‘Investment in stations: A guide for promoters and developers’ (Network Rail, May 2011). From this initial stage, assuming the project fulfils the criteria outlined, the project would enter the railway’s project development system - Governance for Railway Investment Projects (GRIP). The scheme is being promoted by Wiltshire Council to the Swindon and Wiltshire Local Enterprise Partnership (SWLEP) for funding through the Local Growth Fund (LGF). The SLEP is currently inviting scheme proposals to be considered for inclusion in an update to its Strategic Economic Plan. If the PIR provides the case, and the scheme is prioritised by the SWLEP, Corsham Rail Station could be included in its Second Strategic Economic Plan (SEP2) and form part of the bid to central government for LGF funds.

A staged approach to initial feasibility has been agreed with the Council in order to develop the evidence base to inform the potential production of a PIR. This interim report combines the findings of the analysis undertaken to date, in relation to Stage 1a / Stage 1b (covering initial operational and performance aspects) and Stage 2 (covering initial commercial / economic aspects – with particular regard to demand and revenue implications). Further details on the overall approach are provided in Section 1.3 below.

1.2. Background context Corsham is located on the Great Western Mainline, 7.5 miles east of Bath and 4.5 miles west of Chippenham. The original Corsham station was closed in 1967 during the Beeching era, and the re-opening of the station has been a widely supported community objective for many years. In the early 2000’s it appeared that the necessary funding to build a new station would be secured, with the train operating company First Great Western committing to petition DfT to allow its hourly Bristol – Oxford service call there, as well as potentially some (unspecified) peak intercity services. However, in 2003 funding was withdrawn by the Strategic Rail Authority (SRA) for the hourly Bristol – Oxford rail service, which had operated for almost five years, and the service was withdrawn. It had been the basis of the business case for re-opening a Corsham station.

Whilst it has continued to remain a community objective, support for the re-opening of Corsham station has gathered momentum in recent years through high level feasibility assessment and business case work undertaken by various local bodies, including the Swindon and Wiltshire Local Transport Body (SWLTB) and the Swindon and Wiltshire Local Enterprise Partnership (SWLEP). The scheme was included in the original Swindon and Wiltshire Strategic Economic Plan (SWSEP) submitted by the SWLEP in March 2014 as part of agreeing its Growth Deal with central government. Although no funding has been allocated to date, as set out above the scheme is being considered for inclusion in the next round of bids for LGF funding by the SWLEP. Re-opening a rail station at Corsham is therefore identified as a significant enabler of growth, making the town more accessible to students, staff and others, as well as improving access to the Ministry of Defence (MOD) and other employment areas.

A Corsham station is seen to align with strategic growth plans, including:

 The digital cluster around Corsham (Corsham Digital Community). Capitalising on the unique ICT infrastructure at Corsham, making land and premises available for the growth of technology firms;  Establishment of the Corsham Institute - an industry-centric Higher Education specialising in the digital economy, which would support 7,000 students;  Supporting growth around Corsham (as part of a wider ‘A350 Growth Zone’);  Supporting local growth relating to the MOD Corsham site, and improved sub-regional and national connectivity to sites such as MOD Abbeywood in Bristol; and  Promoting sustainable growth and potentially tackling congestion on the A4 corridor, and within Bath and Chippenham.

Corsham has grown significantly in the past 10 years, with the town’s population increasing by 20% between the 2001 and 2011 Census. Further housing development is planned. The Wiltshire Core Strategy (January 2015) identifies that ‘the bus network in the area lacks connectivity and this creates a reliance on the car to

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Corsham Rail Station Initial Feasibility - Interim Report (Stages 1 and 2) travel to work, yet highway capacity in and around Corsham is poor. Reopening the railway station could be a significant boost to local businesses and should remain a priority’.

Figure 1-1 provides a high level overview of potential locations for stations at Corsham and Royal Wootton Bassett in relation to the wider network.

Figure 1-1 Map of Corsham Station and the Surrounding Rail Network

1.3. Study Scope and Approach The staged study approach, consisting of five stages in total, is set out in Table 1-1.

Table 1-1 Staged Study Approach

Stage Approach

Stage 1a –  Review relevant background material / studies, including Great Western RUS and West of Operation / England MetroWest studies performance  Identify existing situation (services, infrastructure etc.) and consider key constraints  Identify potential service options  High level review of options and short-listing of most feasible

Stage 1b  Further operational feasibility assessment of shortlisted option(s) from Stage 1a – the extent of this work will depend on the outcomes from the initial stage.

Stage 2 –  High level demand/ revenue analysis for potential service options Commercial /  Net impact on revenues Economic  Assess high level affordability / viability

Stage 3 –  Review of site suitability (gradients, position with signalling, access etc.) and basic station Design concept design (platforms, footbridges, passenger facilities, car parking etc.)  High level cost estimate

Stage 4  Production of Project Inception Report (based on technical work from Stages 1 to 3)

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Stage 1a was completed in early 2015. This first stage reviewed related previous study work and policy context and considered initial operational and performance feasibility work. An initial high level assessment of potential service options concluded that there was merit in taking forward a small number of potential service options for more detailed operational and performance analysis and demand /revenue analysis as part of Stage 1b and Stage 2.

The Stage 1a work was documented in ‘Technical Note - Stage 1a – Initial Operational and Performance Review’.

Following completion of the Stage 1a work, Wiltshire Council made available a ‘Corsham Station Indicative Proposal and Draft Project Inception Report’, independently developed by the TransWilts Community Rail Partnership (CRP). This also made some recommendations on service options to be considered in investigating a Corsham station. There is considered to be a reasonable level of conformity with the Stage 1a work. The TransWilts CRPs inception report and Stage 1a of this study both considered that halting the Great Western IEP service at Corsham was unlikely to be feasible and consequently the introduction of a Corsham station would be heavily dependent upon the identification of a viable regional service. Giving consideration to the service options proposed in the TransWilts CRP study, the services for further consideration were subsequently agreed with Wiltshire Council, as follows:

 A core regional service between Swindon and Bristol, with further sub-options testing extensions: - to Oxford - to Cardiff  A MetroWest extension from Bath to Chippenham.

With reference to the TransWilts CRP report, the work in Stage 1b and Stage 2 has also assessed the incremental impact of a Royal Wootton Bassett Station on demand, revenue and operating costs.

Building upon Stage 1a, the primary aims of the Stage 1b and Stage 2 work have been to:

 Provide commentary on the relative operational constraints of each identified service option, including available train paths, potential conflicts and the performance impact on existing services;  Provide demand and revenue forecasts for each identified service option (with and without a station at Corsham);  Estimate operational costs for each identified service option; and  Identify any key infrastructure requirements necessary for the operation of each service option.

This initial feasibility work has been based on high level analysis. It is informed by a bespoke operating cost model and use of a gravity model and MOIRA software for demand and revenue forecasting. Key assumptions and uncertainties are set out within the report. Figures presented in relation to operating costs and demand /revenue are direct outputs from the models. The inherent uncertainties in relation to demand and revenue forecasting in particular have been considered through the application of high / low sensitivity tests around the central case.

1.4. Report Structure The remainder of this report is structured as follows:

 Chapter 2 provides a summary of the document review and policy alignment;  Chapter 3 provides an overview of the service options considered for further analysis in this report;  Chapter 4 provides an operational and performance feasibility assessment for the identified service options, building on the work undertaken in Stage 1a;  Chapter 5 presents demand and revenue forecasts for the potential station;  Chapter 6 considers operational costs for introducing additional rail services stopping at the proposed Corsham rail station;  Chapter 7 draws together the revenue and operational costs findings to consider the initial financial viability of each service option;  Chapter 8 presents indicative capital cost estimates for a station at Corsham and any identified infrastructure requirements in relation to the service options considered; and  Chapter 9 discusses conclusions and potential next steps.

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1.5. Technical Notes A number of Technical Notes have been produced which provide greater detail in relation to the more technical aspects of the study work. The Technical Notes are detailed in Table 1-2.

Reference is made to the supporting Technical Notes at relevant points throughout this report.

Table 1-2 Supporting Technical Notes

Reference Full Technical Note Title TN 1a Stage 1a – Initial Operational and Performance Review (including high level options assessment) TN 1b(i) Stage 1b(i) – Operational Analysis

TN 1b(ii) Stage 1b(ii) – Operating Costs Model

TN 1b(iii) Stage 1b(iii) – Indicative Station Costs

TN 2 Stage 2 – Demand & Revenue Forecasting Methodology

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2. Document Review and Policy Alignment

A document review and consideration of policy alignment was undertaken as part of the Stage 1a work. Full details are included in ‘Technical Note - Stage 1a – Initial Operational and Performance Review’ (ref: TN 1a).

The following high level conclusions have been drawn from the document review. These have informed the development of potential service options and identify some considerations to be taken into account during the study.

 A strong business case was developed for Corsham station in 2000, however, this was predicated on the continuation of the Bristol – Oxford service, which has since been removed, and needs to be updated with the latest forecasts of demand, and service assumptions, as well as revised capital and operational costs.

 Network Rail’s historical position is that it does not support plans to re-open a station at Corsham for operational reasons. The station is not part of its current plans, but there is recognition that it could potentially be considered as part of a “new stations package” associated with MetroWest, subject to funding and business case work. A PIR, if submitted, would seek to present an updated case to Network Rail and gain its support for the scheme.

 Analysis undertaken as part of the Great Western RUS work concluded that the incremental business case for extending Bristol – Bath services on to Chippenham did not meet the required Benefit Cost Ration (BCR) threshold. The analysis also assumed that no infrastructure investment was required for the Bristol – Bath service, and did not assume a call at Corsham station for the Chippenham extension.

 The MetroWest proposals make reference to a possible station at Corsham (as part of a ‘new stations package’), but the station is not included as part of the proposals in the initial business case (and West of England to date has not taken forward any work specifically in relation to a Corsham station). Work by Halcrow, and subsequently by Network Rail, has concluded that a turnback at Bathampton is likely to be required to accommodate the new service terminating at Bath without adversely affecting network performance, while connecting services through Bristol Temple Meads has been confirmed as the most efficient use of infrastructure and rolling stock.

 The Wiltshire Rail Study, commissioned by the council, concluded that a new station at Corsham should be feasible, but would need to be served by a new service, as opposed to calling existing intercity services there. A Bristol – Swindon service was deemed to be preferable to maximise patronage, ideally with a further stop at Royal Wootton Bassett, but the performance implications between Royal Wootton Bassett and Swindon would need to be investigated.

 A strategic outline business case for Corsham station was presented to the Swindon and Wiltshire Local Transport Body (SWLTB) in July 2013, and approved as a development scheme. The scheme was included in the Swindon and Wiltshire Strategic Economic Plan (SWSEP) submitted by the Swindon and Wiltshire Local Enterprise Partnership (SWLEP) at the end of March 2014. Although no funding has been allocated to date, the scheme is being considered for inclusion in the next round of bids for Local Growth Fund (LGF) funding by the SWLEP. If the PIR provides the case, and the scheme is prioritised by the SWLEP, Corsham Rail Station could be included in its Second Strategic Economic Plan (SEP2) and form part of the bid to central government for LGF funds.

 The TransWilts CRP’s ‘Indicative Proposal and Draft Project Inception Report’ defined the objective for Corsham station as being: ‘to re-connect the growing business and student population with the rail connections to Bristol, Bath and Swindon. The development at Corsham is part of the local SWLEP economic growth strategy. There is no possibility of halting the Great Western IEP service at Corsham. The need is to provide a regional service capable of linking Corsham to Bristol, Bath, Chippenham and Swindon where connections may be made to the national network. The immediate need is to identify a viable regional service to call at the station which could be delivered in the next franchise by 2019.’

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3. Service Option Development

3.1. Option Identification Potential rail service options in relation to a Corsham station were considered in the Stage 1a work and an initial high level options assessment was undertaken (see Stage 1a Technical Note (ref: TN 1a). It was identified that there is no existing service considered to be feasible to serve a potential Corsham station – in particular, stopping the Great Western IEP service at Corsham was considered to be unlikely to be feasible. Therefore a key consideration is the identification of a viable local / regional service.

Following subsequent review of a ‘Corsham Station Indicative Proposal and Draft Project Inception Report’, independently developed by the TransWilts Community Rail Partnership, a shortlist of potential service options was agreed for further analysis, as summarised in Table 3-1 below.

Options 2 and 3 form extensions of a core Bristol – Swindon service; to Oxford and Cardiff respectively. Option 4 is a standalone option and considers an extension of the MetroWest service from Bath Spa to Chippenham.

Table 3-1 Potential Service Options

Option Frequency Services Descriptions Stopping Patterns per Day 1 1tph 12 New service from Bristol Bristol Temple Meads, Bath Spa, Corsham, Temple Meads to Swindon Chippenham, Swindon 2 1tph 12 New service from Bristol Bristol Temple Meads, Bath Spa, Corsham, Temple Meads to Oxford Chippenham, Swindon, Oxford 3 1tph 12 New service from Cardiff Cardiff Central, Newport, Filton Abbey Central to Swindon Wood, Bristol Temple Meads, Bath Spa, Corsham, Chippenham, Swindon 4 1tph 12 Extension of the MetroWest Bath Spa, Corsham, Chippenham from Bath Spa to Chippenham

3.2. Option Assumptions The analysis has assumed that each service runs on an hourly basis with twelve services, in both directions, each day. It is assumed that running times for the new services will be the same as those for existing services on the same routes. Figure 3-1 summarises the service options to be tested and also summarises existing passenger services passing through from Chippenham (note - this does not show the irregular extensions beyond Weston-Super-Mare).

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Figure 3-1 Corsham Station Service Options Summary

Stops Corsham Service Options Existing Chippenham Services Corsham Minutes 1 2 3 4 EB WB SWI-BRI OXF-BRI SWI-XCD CHI-Metro Hourly Hourly 120mins

London Paddington Reading

Oxford 55 48 Didcot Parkway

Swindon 19 20 Royal Wootton Bassett 12 13

Chippenham 3 5 Melksham

Trowbridge Westbury Corsham 0 0 Bath Spa 7 9 Bristol Temple Meads 23 25 Weston-super-Mare

Filton Abbey Wood 41 43 Newport 67 70

Cardiff Central 80 91

As shortlisted service options relate to the introduction of a station at Corsham on new or reinstated services, revenues and operating costs have considered each service:

 In the absence of a station at Corsham;  With the introduction of a station at Corsham; and  With the additional introduction of a station at Royal Wootton Bassett, as a sensitivity test.

Two minutes additional time has been assumed for each additional stop, to allow for dwell time, acceleration and deceleration.

It should be noted that following completion of the East West Rail scheme to connect Oxford with Milton Keynes, Bedford and beyond, it is understood that a service from Bristol via Oxford and East West Rail may be introduced to realise the benefits of the scheme. However, given that the service specification for East West Rail is yet to be finalised, it has not been considered as part of the option testing.

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4. Operational Analysis

4.1. Introduction As set out in the Network Rail guidance, a key issue to consider when developing a proposal for a new station is to assess whether the proposed solution fits with other services and infrastructure constraints on the route. As explained in Chapter 3, in this case this involves the provision of an additional rail service. This section describes the analysis that has been undertaken to investigate the impact of the rail service options being considered to serve a new station at Corsham. This has considered:

 The “current timetable” (December 2014); and  The “IEP timetable” (December 2019): the proposed future timetable following Great Western electrification and the implementation of the Intercity Express Programme (IEP) in December 2019.

4.2. Methodology & Assumptions This section provides an overview of the methodology for operational analysis. A more detailed account of the methodology and assumptions adopted can be found in ‘Technical Note Stage 1b(i) – Operational Analysis’ - Ref: TN 1b(i).

For the purposes of operational analysis a single service operating along the entire route between Cardiff Central and Oxford has been considered. The analysis concentrates on identifying suitable paths for the new service within the base timetable. Conclusions for the operation of each service option are then drawn with relation to the sections served. This includes the movements of rail services at key junctions and terminus stations.

This analysis provides an initial view of the viability of adding new services into the timetable, the relative performance of each service option from an operational perspective, and whether changes to the existing timetable would be required to accommodate the new service. It does not represent a detailed timetabling exercise and a more detailed analysis would need to be undertaken to ensure that any service option taken forward could be accommodated within the timetable. Specifically, this analysis does not take into account the performance implications of the mix of high speed passenger services and slow moving freight services, which is particularly relevant to the Great Western Main Line section between Didcot and Swindon.

4.3. Current Situation Figure 4-1 illustrates the location of the potential Corsham station site and the surrounding rail network.

The current rail services passing through Corsham station and in the surrounding area are summarised below, including details of the known infrastructure constraints and planned future changes to the rail service in the area.

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Figure 4-1 Map of Corsham Station and the Surrounding Rail Network

4.3.1. Service Summary

Bath Spa to Chippenham The current rail service passing through Corsham, between Bathampton Junction and Thingley Junction, is described below, based on services between Bath Spa and Chippenham.

Table 4-1 Summary of Rail Services Between Bath and Chippenham

Origin Destination Frequency Notes Towards Chippenham Bristol Temple Meads London Paddington 2tph Gloucester Swindon 1tpd Additional peak service Freight Up to 5 paths per day Towards Bath London Paddington Bristol Temple Meads 2tph Freight Up to 5 paths per day

Wootton Bassett to Swindon The following service currently operates between Wootton Basset Junction, where the main line from the Chippenham direction meets the line from Bristol Parkway and South Wales, and Swindon.

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Table 4-2 Summary of Rail Services Between Wootton Bassett & Swindon

Origin Destination Frequency Notes Towards Swindon Bristol Temple Meads London Paddington 2tph South Wales London Paddington 2tph Westbury Swindon 0.5tph 2tpd extended to Southampton Central & Cheltenham Spa Freight Up to 1tph Bristol Temple Meads London Paddington 2tph Proposed new service via Bristol Parkway from December 20181 Towards Wootton Bassett London Paddington Bristol Temple Meads 2tph London Paddington South Wales 2tph Swindon Westbury 0.5tph 2tpd extended to Southampton Central & Cheltenham Spa/Gloucester Freight Up to 1tph Freight London Paddington Bristol Temple Meads 2tph Proposed new service via Bristol Parkway from December 2018

Bristol Temple Meads to Bath Spa The following service currently operates between Bristol Temple Meads and Bathampton Junction, where the lines towards Chippenham and Trowbridge diverge.

Table 4-3 Summary of Rail Services Between Bristol Temple Meads & Bath Spa

Origin Destination Frequency Notes Towards Bath Bristol Temple Meads London Paddington 2tph Cardiff Central Portsmouth Harbour 1tph Great Malvern/Gloucester Westbury/Frome/ 1tph Calls at Keynsham & Oldfield Park, Weymouth additional 1tph at peak times Bristol Temple Meads Salisbury/London 4tpd Calls at Keynsham Waterloo Freight Up to 8tpd Towards Westbury or London Towards Bristol London Paddington Bristol Temple Meads 2tph Portsmouth Harbour Cardiff Central 1tph Weymouth/Westbury Gloucester/Great Malvern 1tph Calls at Oldfield Park & Keynsham, additional 1tph at peak times London Bristol Temple Meads 4tpd Calls at Keynsham Waterloo/Salisbury Freight Up to 3tpd From Westbury

1 As indicated in the recent Great Western Specification Consultation (Department for Transport, May 2014)

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4.3.2. Operating Constraints The following constraints have been identified on the section between Bath Spa and Chippenham.

These constraints, principally operating headways and station dwell times, have been considered as part of the assessment of the operational viability of each of the service options, as described in Section 4.4.

Headway Permissible headway between Bath Spa and Chippenham in both directions is 4 minutes, which equates to a maximum of 15 trains per hour, assuming that there are no conflicting train movements (Source: Network Rail Rules of the Plan).

Station Dwell Times Dwell times at Bath Spa and Chippenham are a minimum of 2 minutes for HSTs, Class 150s and 158s, and 1.5 minutes for Class 165s (Source: Network Rail Rules of the Plan). It is expected that following the electrification of the route and the introduction of new rolling stock that it may be possible for dwell times to be reduced.

Infrastructure Constraints Thingley Junction: flat junction with single lead from Melksham direction, services from Westbury run in the reverse direction on the down main line to the crossover at Thingley East Junction (Source: Network Rail Sectional Appendix).

Bathampton Junction: flat junction with services from Bath Spa towards Westbury crossing the down main line from Chippenham towards Bath Spa2.

Rolling Stock The route between Bath Spa and Chippenham is to be electrified within the next five years, therefore it is likely that additional electrical multiple units (EMUs) will need to be sourced if an additional local service is considered to provide services at Corsham. Alternatively, a DMU could be used as cheaper option, albeit with a slight negative impact on operational performance. The impact of using different types of rolling stock on the financial case for a new station at Corsham will need to be investigated further at a later stage. For the purposes of the operating cost assessment for the service options an electric unit has been assumed as part of the central case, although a simple sensitivity test has been undertaken assuming use of a DMU – see Chapter 6 for details.

Capacity Although introducing an additional service on the route between Bath Spa and Chippenham should be feasible within the current infrastructure constraints, capacity between Royal Wootton Bassett Junction, Swindon and beyond may be an issue if a service to Swindon or beyond is proposed. This issue will become more prevalent from December 2018, when an additional two trains per hour are proposed to run between Bristol Parkway and London, following the electrification of the route and delivery of IEP rolling stock. Therefore, the assessment of the impact of the service options has been considered under both the current timetable and the proposed IEP timetable.

4.4. Impact of Proposed Services

4.4.1. Current Timetable Figure 4-2 and Figure 4-3 below show the current rail services between Cardiff and Oxford via Bristol, Bath and Chippenham, as well as the proposed new service, with separate diagrams for services in each direction. The vertical axis indicates time and the horizontal axis indicates key locations, such as stations and key junctions. Existing services are depicted by thinner lines whereas the thicker lines represent the potentially available time corridor for proposed services. The intervals between grid lines on the vertical axis indicate the minimum headway of 4 minutes for each section, with the exception of the Severn Tunnel, which is 7 minutes. The full diagrams showing train paths throughout the day at each time and location, the assumed timings for the new service, and a reference list of the station / junction names appearing in the diagrams, are shown in ‘Technical Note Stage 1b(i) – Operational Analysis’ - Ref: TN 1b(i).

2 Source: Network Rail Sectional Appendix

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Figure 4-2 Standard Hour Train Pathing Diagram (current timetable, Cardiff – Bristol – Oxford)

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Figure 4-3 Standard Hour Train Pathing Diagram (current timetable, Oxford – Bristol – Cardiff)

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A visual inspection of the analysis in Figure 4-2 suggests that it is potentially viable to fit an hourly service on each of the proposed sections utilised by the service options: Cardiff – Bristol, Bristol – Swindon, Swindon – Oxford and the Bath – Chippenham subsection. However, there is limited availability in the section between Cardiff and Filton Junction in the eastbound direction. The new service may cause conflicts with local services within Wales. It is also important to note that the new service would need to wait in the platform at Bristol Temple Meads for 8 minutes, and near Didcot junctions, between Foxhall Junction and Didcot West Curve Junction (see Figure 4-4), for 8 minutes, in order to avoid timetable clashes with other passenger services. Stopping between these two junctions will not conflict with other services, as the west curve at Didcot is not used by other passenger services.

Figure 4-4 Map of Junctions in the Didcot Area

Figure 4-3 demonstrates that in the westbound direction there is potential to run the new services from Swindon to Cardiff Central, with an additional 11 minute stop at Bristol Temple Meads to avoid conflicts with services running on the Filton Bank Line and within Wales. In addition, there could be potential conflicts on the Filton Bank Line between Bristol Temple Meads and Filton Junction, however, this is likely to be mitigated due to the proposed four tracking on this section.

4.4.2. IEP Timetable The proposed December 2019 timetable comprises of a new set of services and sectional running times, enabled by electrification of the Great Western route and delivering of new IEP trains. The key change to the December 2014 timetable is two additional services per hour from London Paddington to Bristol Temple Meads via Bristol Parkway, and this will have an impact on the available capacity on the line between Foxhall Junction near Didcot, where a proposed service from Oxford would join the Great Western Main Line, and Wootton Bassett Junction to the west of Swindon, where the routes towards Chippenham and Bristol Parkway diverge.

Due to the limitations of the timetable information available for the purposes of the Corsham station proposal, only a high level representation of the timetable has been used, which does not include any changes to non- Great Western services. Therefore, further consultation with Great Western Railway would be required to enable a complete analysis of the viability of including the proposed service options for Corsham as part of the December 2019 timetable.

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As stated above, the section mostly affected by the introduction of the December 2019 timetable is between Didcot (Foxton Junction) and Swindon (Wootton Bassett Junction). It can be seen in Figure 4-5 and Figure 4-6 below that there are potentially suitable paths in the timetable to accommodate the additional services alongside the new Corsham service. However, this is based on the assumption that train services on other sections of the route used by the Corsham service will remain at current timings and frequencies in 2019. It is expected, in reality, that additional services will be introduced on other sections of route, such as local services around Bristol and between Oxford and Didcot. In addition, the mix of high speed passenger services and slow freight services between Didcot and Swindon needs to be taken into account. Therefore, a new service would need to be developed in conjunction with the wider network timetable development currently being undertaken by Network Rail and the operator, Great Western Railway, and it is therefore not possible at this stage to definitively conclude that this new service could be accommodated.

Figure 4-5 Standard Hour Train Pathing Diagram (IEP timetable, Wootton Bassett – Didcot)

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Figure 4-6 Standard Hour Train Pathing Diagram (IEP timetable, Didcot – Wootton Bassett)

4.5. Additional Infrastructure Required Analysis has been undertaken to investigate the platform requirements at Oxford, Chippenham, Bristol Temple Meads and Cardiff Central stations, where the services options under consideration would need to reverse. In the following context, ‘UP’ refers specifically to the Cardiff-Bristol-Oxford direction, and ‘DN’ refers to the Oxford-Bristol-Cardiff direction.

4.5.1. Oxford (Option 2) For Oxford Station, the analysis indicates that the platform infrastructure is likely to be capable of coping with new services considered in this report. It is possible to stop the Corsham services terminating at Oxford at the sidings north to the station, before using them to serve the opposite direction. However, it is worth noting that in the southbound direction, the service would conflict with the xx:43 CrossCountry southbound service, as illustrated in Section 4.4. This conflict might be avoided by moving the time for the CrossCountry service.

4.5.2. Bristol Temple Meads For Bristol Temple Meads, it is most likely that the Corsham services would need to use the north-eastern side of the station, in order to minimise disrupting other services while reversing in the station. This means platforms 7, 9, 11, 13 or 15 are the preferable platforms to accommodate the new Corsham services. The analysis concluded that this station is likely to have enough existing infrastructure for the new Corsham services. A visualisation of the platform availability during a typical time period at Bristol Temple Meads is shown in Figure 4-7. At present this analysis has only considered platform availability and does not cover whether there are conflicts while the service approaches and leaves the station. Consideration has also been made of services passing through the odd-numbered platforms on the north-eastern side of the station to reach even-numbered platforms on the south-western side (shown in light orange).

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Figure 4-7 Platform Availability at Bristol Temple Meads

Platforms 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 15 UP DN 1150 PAS ### AP PAS 115 ### AP 1155 AP AP ### PAS AP 1200 ### AP ### PAS AP UP DN 1205 120 120 120 AP UP DN 1210 AP AP AP 1215 AP ### PAS AP AP 121 1220 AP ### PAS 122 121 AP AP AP 1225 AP ### PAS 122 AP AP AP 1230 AP ### 123 ### AP 123 AP 1235 AP 123 123 123 AP AP AP 1240 AP AP PAS ### ### PAS ### AP 123 AP 1245 AP AP ### ### AP AP AP 1250 AP 124 PAS ### ### PAS 125 AP AP 1255 PAS AP ### ### 125 AP AP 1300 130 130 130 AP 130 UP DN 1310 131 130 ### 131 UP DN 1315 131 ### 131 131

Legend Vacant Occupied ### Service passing PAS Corsham service UP Freight/empty stock move FRG Notes UP refers to services in the Cardiff to Oxford direction, and vice versa for DN 4.5.3. Cardiff Central (Option 3) The analysis suggests Cardiff Central is likely to have enough existing infrastructure to accommodate the additional capacity introduced by the Corsham services. This would involve the train sets going to sidings before reversing and serving the other direction – refer to Figure 4-8. It is worth noting that the new services would have headway issues with current Arriva Trains Wales trains at Cardiff Central, as illustrated in Section 4.4.

Figure 4-8 Platform Availability at Cardiff Central

Platforms 0 1 2 3 4 6 7 UP DN 1350 135 AT AT 135 135 1355 135 AT 135 135 135 1400 140 135 135 1405 ### 140 140 DN 1410 141 140 140 140 UP 1415 141 AT 141 141 1420 141 ### 141 142 142 142 1425 ### AT 142 142 1430 143 142 142 142 142 1435 143 143 143 143 1440 144 144 144 143 143 143 143 1445 144 ### 144 144 144 1450 145 144 ### 145 145 1455 145 145 145 145 1500 150 150 145 145 145 4.5.4. Swindon (Options 1 and 3) The analysis suggests that the current platform infrastructure potentially has enough capacity to accommodate the new services. A terminating service from the West would ideally reverse in platform 2, which is a west-facing bay platform. However the current local service reversing at platform 2 would need to

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Corsham Rail Station Initial Feasibility - Interim Report (Stages 1 and 2) be re-timed earlier. This is shown in Figure 4-9. There may also be clashes with intercity trains heading towards London using platform 3. This would be resolved if a new platform was to be constructed to the south of the station.

Figure 4-9 Platform Availability at Swindon

Platforms 1 2 3 4 UP DN 1230 123 1235 ### 123 1240 ### AT 124 124 1245 124 1250 124 UP 1255 125 1300 125 1305 1310 121 DN 1315 131 1320 1325 132 1330 132 133 4.5.5. Chippenham (Option 4 MetroWest) Analysis has been undertaken for Option 4, which would potentially see the extension of MetroWest services from Bath Spa to Chippenham, stopping at Corsham. It is concluded that the current infrastructure at Chippenham is unlikely to be able to accommodate this extension. Firstly, the station only has two platforms serving the Great Western up and down main line, and the service extension of MetroWest services would require stopping trains at Chippenham and reversing, which is likely to obstruct other passenger and freight services. Secondly, the extended services would need to run in the reverse direction on either the down line on approach to Chippenham or on the up line departing Chippenham for approximately 3 minutes, as the nearest crossover is 1 mile 39 chains (2.39 km) to the west of Chippenham, which would introduce a high level of operational risk.

This indicates that the infrastructure at Chippenham station needs to be upgraded to allow Option 4 to be viable. By inspecting the existing track layout at Chippenham station, it looks likely that a new track could be constructed adjacent to the disused platform on the south side of the station. The re-opening of this platform and the construction of new track and crossover, as indicatively illustrated in Figure 4-10, would potentially allow Option 4 to become viable.

Figure 4-10 Potential Revised Layout for Chippenham Station

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It may also be the case that the third platform at Chippenham would be required as part of the implementation of service options 1 to 3, to increase operational resilience and potentially allow intercity services to overtake local services. However, the high level analysis conducted in Section 4.4 does not appear to indicate that this would be necessary within the current or proposed future timetable, with the main operating constraints existing elsewhere on the network. It should be noted that Network Rail has previously indicated that the disused platform at Chippenham has not been maintained since its closure in 1976. Therefore, the cost for re-opening the new platform should assume full reconstruction to meet current standards. The capital costs associated with constructing a station at Corsham, and the introduction of a new service, are discussed in Chapter 8.

4.6. Summary It has been concluded from the analysis that it is potentially viable to add in a new hourly service between Oxford, Bristol and Cardiff. However:

 In the eastbound direction, in order to avoid conflicts with services in the current timetable, the additional services need to stop for eight minutes at Bristol Temple Meads, and for another eight minutes at a junction near Didcot. Also some Arriva Trains Wales services would need to be re-timed to achieve the minimum headway with the new service.  In the westbound direction, the new services need to stop at Bristol Temple Meads for eleven minutes.  There is some uncertainty around the configuration of the IEP timetable on the Great Western Main Line (planned for December 2019), including service timings and frequencies. Although this analysis suggests there are potentially suitable paths for the additional Corsham service on the key section between Didcot and Swindon, it is not possible at this stage to definitively conclude whether this service could be accommodated.

The existing infrastructure at other stations can potentially provide enough platform capacity for the Corsham services, although there are likely to be performance implications for existing services.

Specific analysis for Option 4 suggests that the current station infrastructure at Chippenham presents a constraint to extending MetroWest services to Chippenham without severe performance implications. However, constructing a new line into a reinstated bay platform at Chippenham, combined with a new cross- over, would be expected to provide the necessary capacity.

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5. Demand and Revenue

5.1. Introduction This chapter sets out the demand and revenue forecasting methodology and subsequently presents baselining and forecasting results for the different service options.

5.2. Methodology The text below presents an overview of the demand and revenue forecasting methodology developed to assess each shortlisted service option and the introduction of a new station at Corsham (and, as a sensitivity test, also at Royal Wootton Bassett). The approach has been developed for this initial high level feasibility work and may need to be reviewed if the project progresses. This methodology is expanded upon within the Technical Note ‘Stage 2 – Demand & Revenue Forecasting Methodology’ (Ref: TN 2).

Figure 5-1 below presents on overview of the demand and revenue forecasting framework. Each task is discussed in turn below. Shortlisted service options relate to the introduction of a Corsham Station on new or reinstated services. For each service the methodology has been developed to provide demand and revenue forecasts:

 In the absence of a station at Corsham;  With the introduction of a station at Corsham; and  With the additional introduction of a station at Royal Wootton Bassett, as a sensitivity test.

Figure 5-1 Demand Forecasting Overview

Baselining Prior to demand forecasting, existing travel patterns in the locality have been examined. This helps establish the requirements for travel and assists in defining station objectives.

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Task 1: Baseline Service Forecasting Initially, demand forecasts have been produced for each service option in the absence of any new station proposals. These forecasts have been produced in MOIRA3 by coding proposed service options on top of the existing December 2014 timetable.

Task 2: New Station Forecasts Secondly, forecasts have been produced for demand to/from Corsham and Royal Wootton Bassett stations using a gravity model developed for this study. The gravity model forecasts demand directly as a function of:  The originating stations weighted workplace population4;  The destination stations weighted workplace population;  The generalised journey time between the two stations; and  The difference between the generalised journey time by rail and the highway time for the same trip.

The gravity model has been calibrated to the ‘Do-Minimum’ situation using base demand and Generalised Journey Times (GJTs) from MOIRA, population statistics from census data and highway times from route planning. Weighted station populations are produced by assigning output areas to the originating station, which would minimise the overall perception of travel time including station access time. A distance decay function is applied to each census Output Area to reflect that passengers are more likely to travel by rail if they are located closer to the station. This exercise is repeated for the ‘Do-Something’ scenario, introducing Corsham and Royal Wootton Bassett Stations on the proposed services in their original geographical locations. This generates both additional rail demand and abstracts from neighbouring station catchments.

Demand forecasts are uplifted to revenue using the following assumptions:  Average yields per km for Corsham will be the same as those to/from Chippenham for each destination; and  Average yields per km for Royal Wootton Bassett will be the same as those to/from Swindon for each destination.

Yields vary by destination, although generally sit between £0.10 per km and £0.14 per km.

The final stage of demand forecasting assigns a ‘comparator’ station to each new station. For each origin- destination the ‘raw forecast’ between each new station and a given destination is factored by the under/over forecast for the comparator station. This is associated with the logic that there is likely to be a degree of consistency in the ‘unexplained factors’ that are external to the gravity model when compared to these neighbouring stations.

The approach above produces a direct demand forecast to/from new stations for each direct rail link provided by any of the proposed services. Demand for each service is then considered with relation to the stations that it serves directly. Based on the existing demand at Chippenham Station, an assumption has been made that an additional 5% trips and 15% of station revenue will be attributed to indirect links from the station (e.g. those requiring interchange). The assumption has been made that only 40% of this revenue will be generated. The remainder is assumed to already use rail in the absence of the new station, but with the introduction of the potential services.

In relation to the above, around 21% of trips through Chippenham station are either to or from London. This suggests that London would form a major ‘indirect’ market from Corsham. However, based on a comparison with Melksham Station it has been conservatively assumed that a single hourly connecting service from Corsham will not generate significant demand on London flows. The GJT from Corsham to London would be approximately 194 minutes, against 102 minutes from Chippenham.

3 MOIRA is an industry standard software tool that models the impact of timetable changes on both the overall rail market, and individual train operating companies. 4 Workplace population represents the best fit to calibration after experimentation with workplace population, employment and total population. Each indices is too closely correlated to be used independently within the model estimation.

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Task 3: Impact on through passengers Finally, the impact of a stop at Corsham on through passengers has been assessed in MOIRA by re-coding the original timetable to account for journey times with an additional stop (de-acceleration, dwell time, acceleration).

When combined with new station forecasts this then produces a final forecast for each service:

 Without a station at Corsham;  With a station at Corsham; and  With an additional new station at Royal Wootton Bassett.

In conjunction with operating costs from Stage 1b this methodology provides a high level financial assessment of each potential service in scenarios with and without new stations at Corsham and Royal Wootton Bassett.

Task 4.1: Exogenous growth forecasting For this stage of assessment, demand and revenue forecasts have been projected from a 2013/14 base year over a 20 year period using a high level application of the PDFH5.1 framework5. This has used national level forecasts for changes to exogenous factors (e.g. GDP per capita, population) and has considered demand as interurban trips to/from a Core City. The forecast also accounts for changes in rail fares over the forecasting period, assuming a fares policy of RPI+1% throughout.

Task 4.2: Drivers of Change The Swindon and Wiltshire Strategic Economic Plan identifies that ‘re-opening the rail station at Corsham would be a significant enabler of growth, making the Town more accessible to students, staff and others as well as improving access to the MOD and other employment areas.’ Table 5-1 presents local development proposals with the potential to have a significant impact on demand for travel.

5 The Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook (PDFH) framework is the industry’s standard approach for forecasting the effects of changes in the external environment on the demand for rail travel.

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Table 5-1 Corsham: Drivers of Change

Development Proposals Housing The Spatial Strategy for the Corsham Community area as set out in the Wiltshire Core Development and Strategy adopted in January 2015 states that: Employment Over the plan period (2006 to 2026), 6 ha of new employment land (in addition to that delivered or committed at April 2011) will be provided, Over the plan period (2006 to 2026), approximately 1,395 homes will be provided, of which about 1,220 should occur at Corsham. Approximately 175 homes will be provided in the rest of the Community Area. Growth in the Corsham Community Area over the plan period may consist of a range of sites; including MOD sites (see below). MOD Sites There are currently around 40ha of surplus ex-MOD sites, in the Corsham area where development is planned. Development on these sites, some of which have planning permission is not deliverable in the short term due to constraints in the form of required site infrastructure and improvements. These sites could support the expansion plans of businesses both local and inward investors. Early investment in site infrastructure will address those constraints thereby enabling growth. Frontloading infrastructure will assist in accelerating the delivery of these sites, providing an opportunity to develop a high- tech communications and digital economy hub in the LEP area. Accelerating the delivery of these sites will also enable the early creation of jobs, homes, employment land, and education provision. Corsham Institute Swindon and Wiltshire Local Enterprise Partnership’s Strategic Economic Plan aspires to provide a central location in the centre of Corsham which will represent the “gateway” to a digital society and digital economy. Over the next ten years, it is proposed that the Institute will develop academic facilities, student residential accommodation and related facilities for up to 5,000 students, together with a research park, technology park, secure data centres and a Knowledge Exchange platform to support over 20 companies employing 1,500 staff together with an online education platform supporting a wider community of undergraduate students. The proposed investment programme is expected to be £325m over five years and £500m over ten years. Bath Spa Bath Spa University Vice Chancellor Professor Christina Slade has stated that provision University of a rail station at Corsham would expand the Corsham campus student population by Corsham Court approximately 2,000 to 3,000.

For the purposes of this study it has been assumed that the proposals for Corsham Institute and Bath Spa University are additional to the central planning forecasts, with the potential to significantly increase rail demand at a Corsham Station:

 As a sensitivity test, high level demand forecasts have been produced for a Corsham station assuming an additional population of 2,000 students located in the proximity of the existing Corsham Court campus6. This sensitivity test is to give a high level estimation on the demand impact for informative purposes and is not a comment on the likelihood of this development.  At this stage there are insufficient details relating to the location or functionality of a Corsham Institute to make a meaningful projection of its impact on rail demand. However, this is a significant development and proposals should continue to be monitored in relation to the business case for a Corsham Station.

6 Whilst the gravity model is calibrated on workplace population it is acknowledged that rail demand is a function of both the workplace and resident population. When considering this development an increase to the student population has been considered as equivalent to an increase in workplace employees on a one-for-one basis.

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5.3. Baselining

5.3.1. Introduction The remainder of the sub-section below presents information on the existing demand around Corsham to assist in defining the function of the station, the markets that it will serve and to identify/confirm any gaps in rail provision. This examines key travel to work patterns, although also presents existing rail demand figures for the neighbouring station of Chippenham to comment on potential patronage at Corsham.

In terms of the overall function of a station at Corsham, the Trans Wilts CRP’s Project Inception Report defined the objective for Corsham station as being ‘to re-connect the growing business and student population with the rail connections to Bristol, Bath and Swindon. The development at Corsham is part of the local SWLEP economic growth strategy. There is no possibility of halting the Great Western IEP service at Corsham. The need is to provide a regional service capable of linking Corsham to Bristol, Bath, Chippenham and Swindon where connections may be made to the national network. The immediate need is to identify a viable regional service to call at the station which could be delivered in the next franchise by 2019.’

5.3.2. Travel to Work Data Travel to work data from the 2011 Census has been analysed for trips originating from, and destined for, both Corsham and, as the nearest existing station, Chippenham. The results are shown below in Table 5-2. This presents the ultimate origins and destinations of the workforce population alongside those who stated that they travelled to work by rail. Notwithstanding part time workers and annual leave, it can be considered that each ‘worker’ represents one return journey per weekday.

Table 5-2 Travel to Work (Usual Residential and Workplace Populations)

Destination Total Rail %Rail Total Rail %Rail Residential Pop. (Workers) ‘FROM Corsham’ ‘FROM Chippenham’ Wiltshire 4,302 7 0.2% 10,034 51 0.5% Bath & North East Somerset 664 9 1.4% 753 248 32.9% Bristol, City of 153 20 13.1% 433 146 33.7% Swindon 214 11 5.1% 839 139 16.6% South Gloucestershire 188 4 2.1% 487 20 4.1% Other 892 21 2.4% 1,863 89 4.8% Greater London 101 35 34.7% 212 101 47.6% Total 6,514 107 1.6% 14,621 794 5.4% Workplace Population ‘TO Corsham’ ‘TO Chippenham’ Wiltshire 5,823 15 0.3% 10,246 62 0.6% Bath & North East Somerset 180 1 0.6% 210 42 20.0% Bristol, City of 162 8 4.9% 289 28 9.7% Swindon 198 2 1.0% 385 34 8.8% South Gloucestershire 222 1 0.5% 333 1 0.3% Other 750 14 1.9% 815 23 2.8% Greater London 20 6 30.0% 49 6 12.2% Total 7,355 47 0.6% 12,327 196 1.6%

Source: 2011 Census Travel to Work data Corsham: MSOA: Wiltshire 018 Chippenham MSOA: Wiltshire 009 + Wiltshire 010 + Wiltshire 011

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The analysis of census travel to work data indicates that:

 There is a gap in rail service provision between Corsham and Bath. Although over 650 Corsham residents make a daily commute to Bath and North East Somerset, less than 2% of these journeys are made by rail. This contrasts with trips from Chippenham to the same area where rail captures almost a third of work trips.  On the longer journey to Bristol some Corsham residents are already rail heading to neighbouring stations to travel to work. However, this only accounts for 13% of work trips compared to 34% for those whose journey originates in Chippenham.  Only 5% of Corsham residents working in Swindon travel by rail compared to nearly 17% of those who live in Chippenham.  For longer journeys the lack of a local station has less impact on mode share, as passengers are more willing to travel to a railway station to make a longer journey. Out of approximately 100 residents in Corsham working in London 35% travel by rail. This makes them 70% as likely to travel by rail as residents of Chippenham where rail captures almost 48% of the market.  Corsham is a net importer of workers, although it also exports a significant number of workers. Based on current travel-to-work figures at Corsham and Chippenham it will be harder for rail to capture as high a proportion of the inbound commuters. For example, rail captures nearly 34% of all journeys to work from Chippenham to Bristol but less than 10% of journeys to work from Bristol to Chippenham. This is likely to be due to employment being more clustered around Bristol rail stations than residents. Other reasons include city centre congestion in Bristol and the availability / cost of parking there.

Figure 5-2 presents a clearer visual representation of the above, whilst also splitting the Chippenham area out into its three constituent zones to highlight the impact of station accessibility on mode share – and its diminishing importance with journey length.

Figure 5-2 Existing Travel-to-Work Rail Mode Share from Corsham and Chippenham (MSOAs)

5.3.3. Neighbouring Stations Located 4.5 miles to the east of Corsham, Chippenham has a population approximately three times as large as Corsham. The following table presents the top 10 origins and destinations to and from Chippenham station. In the table below, and in subsequent demand tables both journeys and trips are defined as a one-

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Table 5-3 Chippenham Station Annual Demand (2014/15)

To Chippenham From Chippenham # Origin Journeys %Total # Destination Journeys %Total (000s) (000s) 1 Total London 128 29% 1 Bath Spa 559 39% 2 Bath Spa 78 18% 2 Total London 277 19% 3 Bristol Temple M 56 12% 3 Bristol Temple M 226 16% 4 Swindon Wilts 55 12% 4 Swindon Wilts 168 12% 5 Trowbridge 11 2% 5 Didcot Parkway 57 4% 6 Didcot Parkway 8 2% 6 Filton Abbeywood 15 1% 7 Reading 8 2% 7 Reading 14 1% 8 Westbury 4 1% 8 Bristol Parkway 10 1% 9 Oxford 4 1% 9 Oxford 9 1% 10 Melksham 4 1% 10 Cardiff BR 8 1% TOTAL (All origins) 447 TOTAL (All destinations) 1,450

Source: MOIRA

The table above shows that:

 Over 80% of trips either starting or ending at Chippenham either originate from, or are bound for, one of four destinations: - Bath Spa (34%), - Bristol (15%) - Swindon (12%) - Greater London (21%) - Greater London is the second most popular destination after Bath. Due to the longer distance and higher fares this accounts for a disproportionate 60% of the revenue to\from Chippenham station. This is a function of the provision of 2 direct trains each hour between Chippenham and London Paddington. As seen in Figure 5-2 above the high mode share of rail already encroaches into Corsham. A direct London service is not considered as part of this study, having been excluded from analysis in Stage 1a primarily due to being incompatible with wider industry goals to improve the quality of intercity services on the Western route. Without a direct Corsham service, a significant increase in the net number of trips to London would not be expected as an hourly rail interchange would not result in an improvement in accessibility to the direct Chippenham service for the majority of Corsham residents.  Approximately 4% of journeys and 14% of revenue at Chippenham is generated from a large number of small flows which are not served directly from Chippenham – significant contributors to this pool come from trips to Manchester, Birmingham, York, Leeds and Gatwick Airport.  When return tickets are sold, they are recorded as two trips from the ‘start’ station to the ‘end’ station. This means that ticket sales give an indication to directionality – albeit one that is increasingly influenced by the practice of buying two advanced single tickets. On this basis, over 75% of trips through Chippenham station are ‘originating’ - with less than 25% being destined for the station. This is broadly in line with journey to work data shown in Table 5-2. This shows 794 ‘Chippenham’ residents travelling to work by rail, compared to 196 incoming workers travelling by rail.

In conclusion, the travel-to-work data and demand from the neighbouring station to Corsham at Chippenham supports the station objective identified in Section 5.3.1 above. A station at Corsham could provide enhanced connectivity to Bath, Bristol and Swindon, with some demand from the latter two being abstracted from existing rail services. Even a direct London service would bring a limited increase in the mode share of rail to London due to passengers’ willingness to travel to neighbouring stations for longer journeys.

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5.4. Demand Forecasting Results This section presents demand forecasting results. Demand and revenue forecasts are presented:

 As isolated forecasts for the new stations;  For each potential service option: - In the absence of a station at Corsham; - With the addition of a station at Corsham; and - With the addition of stations at both Corsham and Royal Wootton Bassett.

5.4.1. New Station Demand

5.4.1.1. Corsham Station The table below presents annual demand and revenue forecasts for Corsham station. Demand forecasts are benchmarked against existing demand at Chippenham station although this must consider that the service pattern between the two stations differs. It should be noted that the forecasts are specific to the stopping patterns, frequency and journey times as referenced in this report. Any amendments to these assumptions would impact on the demand and revenue forecasts as presented below. Results are unrounded from forecasting although this should not be taken to represent the accuracy of the forecasts.

Table 5-4 Corsham Station Demand Forecasts (2014/15 demand and prices)

Journeys (000s per annum) Revenues (£000s) Journeys Originating Destined Total Total Generated Chippenham Cardiff Central 1 9 10 105 40 13 Newport 1 2 2 17 6 3 Filton Abbey Wood 1 16 17 90 60 17 Bristol 10 98 108 397 261 295 Bath 9 165 174 284 278 693 Corsham 0 0 0 0 0 0 Chippenham 4 13 17 14 14 0 Royal Wootton Bassett 5 12 17 56 56 0 Swindon 3 23 26 114 91 241 Oxford 2 11 13 126 -10 20 Direct Flows 36 348 384 1,204 796 External 2 17 19 181 72 Total Demand 38 365 403 1,385 868

Source: Gravity Model (Corsham Model v4.00_FINAL DRAFT.xlsx)

The table above shows that with an hourly service pattern running from Cardiff to Oxford (including a Royal Wootton Bassett Station):

 Corsham Station would be forecast to have an annual footfall of 403,000 passengers;  Ticket receipts would be forecast to total £1.39m (2014/15 demand, prices and values); and  £0.87m of revenue would be generated over existing rail revenues. The remainder is forecast to be abstracted from neighbouring stations.

As would be anticipated, the station primarily generates demand on flows to Bath, Bristol and, to a lesser extent, Swindon. Almost all trips between Corsham and Bath would be new to rail. Approximately 28% of trips to Bristol and 25% of trips to Swindon are forecast to be abstracted from existing rail services.

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As the majority of demand and generated demand is carried to Bath and Bristol, each service option considered would be forecast to retain a high proportion of the total demand forecast. Assuming each service generates revenue from stations directly served, with an additional 5% of ‘external’ demand, the:

 Swindon – Bristol service would be forecast to carry 340,000 passengers in total7, generating an additional £680k of rail revenue.  Oxford – Bristol would be forecast to carry 353,000 passengers generating an additional £675k of rail revenue.  Cardiff – Swindon would be forecast to carry 370,000 passengers generating an additional £796k of rail revenue.  MetroWest extension to Chippenham would be forecast to carry 313,000 passengers generating an additional £584k of rail revenue. The reduction over the other three services is as a result of not providing a direct link to Swindon.

An assessment of a Bath University campus in Corsham with a population of 2,000 students gives a forecast increase in base year demand of approximately 16% and an increase in generated revenue of approximately 22%. This adds approximately 65,000 trips and approximately £185k to annual rail demand and revenue. It should be noted that treating this development as a population increase in the gravity model treats this population as a ‘typical origin population’. Just over 10% of Corsham residents travel to work in Bath and North East Somerset whilst 66% work within Wiltshire. Due to the homogenous nature of this development we could expect a much more significant focus on travel to Bath. If there was a high level of certainty around this development it may become more appropriate to forecast the additional demand by developing accurate estimates of trip rates and mode share for the student population in question.

5.4.1.2. Royal Wootton Bassett Station The table below presents forecast demand to/from Royal Wootton Bassett station using present day demand using 2014/15 levels of demand. The forecast is produced assuming that Royal Wootton Bassett Station is serves by the services investigated within this study. There is also potential for a Royal Wootton Bassett station to be served by TransWilts services although this demand has not been considered within the scope of this study. Demand forecasts are benchmarked against existing demand at Swindon station.

7 This is the forecast figure for total demand at the station rather than ‘generated’ rail demand.

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Table 5-5 Royal Wootton Bassett Station Demand Forecasts (2014/15 demand and prices)

Journeys (000s per annum) Revenues (£000s) Journeys Originating Destined Total Total Generated Swindon Cardiff Central 2 5 7 75 40 102 Newport 1 1 2 18 12 34 Filton Abbey Wood 0 15 16 183 129 6 Bristol 16 62 78 523 176 311 Bath 12 81 93 404 111 398 Corsham 12 5 17 56 56 0 Chippenham 11 11 23 151 142 241 Royal Wootton Bassett 0 0 0 0 0 0 Swindon 9 29 38 96 96 0 Oxford 8 30 38 282 192 105 Direct Flows 73 238 311 1,787 954 External 4 12 16 268 107 Total Demand 77 250 327 2,055 1,061

Source: Gravity Model (Corsham Model v4.00_FINAL DRAFT.xlsx)

The table above shows that with an hourly service pattern running from Cardiff to Oxford:

 Royal Wootton Bassett would be forecast to have an annual football of 327,000.  Ticket receipts would be forecast to total £2.06m (2014/15 demand, prices and values).  £1.06m of this revenue being generated over existing rail revenues.

Royal Wootton Bassett has a reported 2011 Census population of 11,385 compared to 13,000 for Corsham. Generally, the station is forecast to generate fewer journeys but with higher average yields than Corsham – principally Bath and Bristol remain as the major destinations although, being further away, generate fewer trips with higher fares.

The station also generates a higher proportion of its demand from stations beyond the core Bristol to Swindon section and therefore does not retain as high a proportion of this demand for all service options:

 The Swindon – Bristol service would be forecast to carry 264,000 passengers generating an additional £636k of rail revenue;  The Oxford – Bristol would be forecast to carry 302,000 passengers generating an additional £841k of rail revenue; and  The Cardiff – Swindon would be forecast to carry 290,000 passengers generating an additional £829k of rail revenue.

The MetroWest extension to Chippenham terminates prior to Royal Wootton Bassett and hence is not applicable.

5.4.2. Proposed Service Demand This section presents the demand and revenue which would be forecast on each service considered, in the absence of any new stations. It should be noted that, in a consistent manner with costs, each service has been tested as an hourly service with 12 trains a day and no attempt has been made to maximise demand and revenue.

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As MOIRA also produces value-of-time savings for users and new users these savings are also presented in the table below. It should be noted that this is not a full representation of economic benefits of each new service in the absence of new stations, primarily not accounting for:  Mode switch from car to rail as a result of a scheme will result in benefits from reduced congestion for existing road users and reductions in the externalities (such as accidents and emissions) relating to car use; and  Crowding relief from extra service provision.

Table 5-6 Service Demand (2014/15 demand, revenue and prices)

Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option4 BTM - SWI BTM – OXF XCD - SWI MetroWest - CPM Journeys (k) 206 330 347 35 Revenue (£k) 839 2,731 1,510 278 Revenue Chippenham - Bath £145k Bristol TM - Oxford £281k Chippenham - Bath £145k Chippenham - Bath £145k Generation Bristol TM - Bath £105k Oxford - Bristol TM £259k Cardiff – Bristol TM £105k Chippenham - BristolTM £61k (Top Ten) Swindon Wilts - Bath £103k Oxford - Bath £209k Bristol TM - Bath £105k Bath - Chippenham £25k Bath Spa - Bristol TM £93k Bath - Oxford £192k Swindon - Bath £103k BristolTM - Chippenham £19k

Swindon - Bristol TM £66k Chippenham - Bath £145k Bath - Bristol TM £93k Chippenham - Bristol TM £61k Bristol TM - Bath £105k Newport - Cardiff £85k Chippenham - Swindon £58k Swindon - Bath £103k Bristol TM - Cardiff £85k Bath - Swindon £54k Swindon - Oxford £93k Newport - Bristol TM £66k Bristol TM - Swindon £47k Bath Spa - Bristol M £93k Swindon - Bristol TM £66k Bath - Chippenham £25k Oxford - Swindon £76k Chippenham – BristollTM £61k User Benefits (£k) 986 4,112 2,033 404

Source: MOIRA

The table above shows revenue and demand for each service.

 Option 2 generates the highest revenues, adding approximately £2,731k to base year rail revenues. The largest increases are on links between Oxford and Bristol/Bath where the requirement for interchange is removed. The option is also forecast to generate £3,839k of user benefits from journey time savings.  Option 3 generates annual revenues of £1,510k with journey time savings of £2,033k.  The core option between Bristol Temple Meads and Swindon generates revenues of £839k with user benefits of £986k.  A MetroWest extension to Chippenham would be forecast to generate revenues of £278k with user benefits of £404k. As an extension from Bath Spa, in the absence of a Corsham station this proposal only really impacts on rail accessibility to and from Chippenham.

When viewed in conjunction with the operating costs these values provide a picture of the financial viability of each service in the absence of new station proposals.

5.4.3. Combined Demand Table 5-7 below combines revenue forecasts from above to show total generated revenue for each service investigated, under the following scenarios:

 In the absence of any new stations;  With a station at Corsham; and  With stations at both Corsham and Royal Wootton Bassett.

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Table 5-7 Service Generated Revenue (£000s) with New Station Options (2014/15 demand and revenue)

Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option4 BTM - SWI BTM - OXF XCD - SWI MetroWest - CPM No New Stations Base Service 839 2,731 1,510 278 New Stations 0 0 0 0 Total Service 839 2,731 1,510 278 + Corsham Station Base Service 754 2,477 1,421 238 New Stations 680 675 796 584 Total Service 1,434 3,153 2,217 821 + Corsham Station & Royal Wootton Bassett Station Base Service 694 2,265 1,361 n/a New Stations 1,316 1,516 1,625 n/a Total Service 2,010 3,781 2,986 n/a

In each case the ‘Base Service’ revenue represents the additional revenue accrued between existing stations on the line. This decreases with each additional new station due to the resulting increase in journey times for passengers required to pass through the new stations

The table above suggests that:

 For each service option tested a new station at Corsham would increase net rail revenues;  The addition of a new station at Royal Wootton Basset would further increase net rail revenues from the service options considered.  After considering the impact of the extended journey times Corsham station is forecast to generate a net annual increase to rail revenues of between £422k and £707k per annum (2014/15 demand and prices). This is derived by calculating the difference in the total service revenue with and without Corsham Station. The lower figure is for the Bristol – Oxford service where through passenger dis-benefits are higher.  A station at Royal Wootton Bassett is forecast to add an additional £576k - £769k to annual rail revenues. This assumes that Corsham station is already in place and includes rail revenue generated between the two proposed stations.

When viewed in conjunction with the operating costs these values provide an indication of the financial viability of each service with new stations at Corsham and Royal Wootton Bassett.

5.4.4. Exogenous Growth Significant increases in rail demand and revenue are forecast over the next 20 years. Table 5-8 demonstrates how base year (2014/15) revenue projections could be expected to increase in real terms over this timescale.

Forecast revenues are presented for service options with both new stations in place (or, in the case of the MetroWest extension, with just a Corsham Station in place).

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Table 5-8 Annual Service Revenue Growth (£000s, 2014/15 Prices)

Rail Growth Indices Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option4 Year Demand Revenue BTM – SWI BTM - OXF XCD - SWI MWest - CPM 2014/15 1.00 1.00 2,010 3,781 2,986 821 2015/16 1.00 1.01 2,037 3,833 3,027 833 2016/17 1.02 1.04 2,084 3,921 3,096 852 2017/18 1.03 1.06 2,139 4,025 3,178 874 2018/19 1.05 1.09 2,198 4,136 3,266 898 2019/20 1.07 1.12 2,257 4,247 3,354 923 2020/21 1.09 1.15 2,318 4,362 3,444 947 2021/22 1.10 1.18 2,380 4,478 3,536 973 2022/23 1.12 1.21 2,441 4,592 3,626 997 2023/24 1.14 1.24 2,502 4,707 3,717 1,022 2024/25 1.16 1.28 2,565 4,825 3,810 1,048 2025/26 1.17 1.31 2,631 4,949 3,908 1,075 2026/27 1.19 1.34 2,702 5,083 4,014 1,104 2027/28 1.21 1.38 2,775 5,221 4,123 1,134 2028/29 1.23 1.42 2,851 5,363 4,235 1,165 2029/30 1.26 1.46 2,930 5,512 4,353 1,197 2030/31 1.28 1.50 3,014 5,671 4,478 1,232 2031/32 1.31 1.55 3,108 5,847 4,617 1,270 2032/33 1.33 1.59 3,205 6,030 4,761 1,310 2033/34 1.36 1.64 3,305 6,218 4,910 1,351

5.4.5. Uncertainty in Forecasting For this initial feasibility assessment demand forecasting has considered a central case forecast. No demand forecasting exercise can estimate or reflect every potential effect. Some of the key assumptions and uncertainties in the demand forecasting approach have therefore been identified below. These are associated with the demand sensitivities reported in Section 7.3 and should be considered in any future demand forecasting work. Uncertainties are grouped by simplifications or uncertainties within the model parameters or specification, and around model inputs:

 Model Specification - Gravity Model. Although the gravity model is the most commonly used method of deriving trips where a full prior matrix is unavailable it is not without limitations. There are several factors which are not explicit, or which are simplified in the gravity model, which may account for some of the remaining variation in demand8.  Model Inputs - Service assumptions. The forecasts are specific to the stopping patterns, frequencies and journey time’s stated within this report. Any amendments to these assumptions would impact on the demand and revenue forecasts produced. - Service frequency. The assumption is made that a 12 trains per day service will serve new stations with generalised journey times being derived manually, assuming that on the flows considered a 12 trains per day service running once an hour will be equivalent to a 60 minute service frequency. This may be optimistic given that a proportion of passengers would wish to travel outside these times. As a sensitivity test, adding 5 minutes to the service interval penalty would reduce revenue forecasts at Corsham Station by 16% and at Royal Wootton Bassett Station by 7%.

8 The ‘Station Usage and Demand Forecasts for Newly Opened Railway Lines and Stations Final Report’ produced by SDG for the DfT considers that demand forecasts were reasonably accurate if they were within +/- 20% of observed demand

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- Rail Fares. Rail fares do not form part of the gravity model calibration (due to a high degree of correlation with generalised journey time). For revenue calculations it is assumed that average yields per km for Corsham will be the same as those to/from Chippenham for a given destination. For short distance flows there may be an upside risk in revenue where yields per km may increase. - Future Development. Proposals for Corsham Institute and Bath University have been assumed to be additional to the central planning forecasts with the potential to significantly increase rail demand at a Corsham Station. For example, the expansion of the Corsham campus student population by 2,000 - 3,000 is conservatively estimated to increase net rail revenues generated by a station at Corsham by £185k per annum. - Base Timetable. The services and new station have been assessed against the May 2015 timetable. The enhanced IEP timetable is scheduled to be in operation from December 2018. The impact on new service demand is thought to be relatively limited, although this should be confirmed with modelling if the scheme progresses. - Exogenous growth. Due to uncertainties in macro-economic variables that drive rail demand (e.g. GDP, population, fuel costs) there is uncertainty around future demand growth. WebTAG guidance typically assumes high and low scenarios of +/- 2.0% of base year demand multiplied by the square root of the number of years from the base year. Therefore: - 1 year from the base year there would be an uncertainty of +/-2.0% around the growth forecast. - 9 years from the base year there would be an uncertainty of +/-6.0% around the growth forecast.

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6. Operating Costs

6.1. Introduction This section provides an overview of the methodology used to calculate the annual operating costs for each service option and presents the results. An Operating Cost Model has been constructed for the purposes of this study. A more detailed description of the Operating Cost Model is included in ‘Technical Note Stage 1b(ii) – Operating Costs Model’, Ref:TN 1b(ii).

It should be noted that all costs presented are direct from the cost model and no rounding has been applied. The high level assumptions built in to the cost model are considered to be reasonable and appropriate for this initial feasibility stage and in order to provide comparative analysis of the different service options considered. Costs should be reviewed as part of future stages of work.

Throughout this section, the use of ‘OPEX’ refers to operating expenditure or costs.

6.2. Methodology & Assumptions As with revenue forecasts, operating costs have been considered firstly with the provision of a service in the absence of new stations, and then with the addition of a station at Corsham, and additionally at Royal Wootton Bassett. Operating costs have been categorised as infrastructure costs, rolling stock costs and staff costs. The remainder of this section presents the components included within each category and how these costs have been considered.

6.2.1. Infrastructure Costs It is assumed that the rail infrastructure relevant to the additional service options will be electrified by the time Corsham station opens, and therefore all new services are assumed to be operated by electrical multiple units (EMUs) powered by AC overhead lines. The operating cost calculations are based on four car Class 365 EMUs, with the assumption that each service is formed of a single unit.

 Capacity Charge: based on Network Rail CP5 capacity charge rates for the sections of route operated and the annual train mileage for each service.  Power Charges: including the following, assumed to grow by the annual increase in energy prices quoted in WebTAG, in real terms: - Electric Current for Traction (EC4T) charge, based on Network Rail consumption rates, vehicle mileage and electricity costs; and - Electrification Asset Usage (EAU) charge, based on Network Rail CP5 rates and vehicle mileage.

 Variable Track Access Charge (VTAC): based on Network Rail CP5 VTAC rates and the annual vehicle mileage for each service.

6.2.2. Rolling Stock Costs Rolling stock lease costs have been calculated based on the number of Class 365 EMUs required to operate the service tested under each option.

6.2.3. Staff Costs It is assumed that a train driver and guard will be required to operate the proposed services. The total number of staff are calculated based on the full-time equivalent number of staff needed to cover the time required for service operation. Annual staff costs have been derived from analysis of similar projects and are assumed to grow annually based on the real consumption wage per employee quoted in WebTAG.

6.2.4. Station Operating Costs Station operating costs consist of the Network Rail Long Term Charge (LTC) paid by the rail operators (TOCs) whose services call at the station, and other costs associated with the day-to-day operation of the station itself, such as station cleaning and utilities.

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Network Rail charges the station facility owner (most commonly the TOC) an annual LTC in order to recover the cost of station maintenance, renewal and repair (MRR) of the station. The LTC is a regulated charge, and is determined by the ORR at each periodic review in a similar way to the track infrastructure charges, such as the capacity charge. For the assessment of a new station at Corsham, the LTC has been estimated based on the station replacement cost, i.e. assuming no change to the permanent way, signalling or other preparatory costs. This cost has been assumed to be spread over a period of 110 years.

In addition to the LTC, utilities and cleaning costs, the cost of leasing ticket machines, and the cost of maintaining CCTV and customer information systems have been estimated based on benchmarking costs from similar projects, converted to 2014/15 prices.

In the case of the station at Corsham, the LTC is estimated to be approximately £53k per annum, and the total annual operating cost is approximately £64k. As a sensitivity test, an assumption has been made that a station at Royal Wootton Bassett would result in identical additional costs.

Table 6-1 Corsham Annual Station Operating Costs (£000s, 2014/15 prices) Operating Cost Items Operating Costs (£000s, 2014/15 prices) Utilities 1.4 Cleaning 2.1 CCTV Maintenance 1.3 Customer Information Screens 1.1 Ticket Machine Lease 4.9 Annual LTC 53.4 Staffing 09 Income from retail concession 0 Total Annual OPEX to TOC 64.2 Source: Operating Cost Model (Atkins, 2015)

6.3. Operating Costs Results

6.3.1. Annual Operating Costs (2014/15) Table 6-2 presents the estimated annual operating costs for each service, as output from the Operating Costs Model. Results are presented for baseline services and with the addition of stops at Corsham and Royal Wootton Bassett. The addition of these stops incurs an additional cost of £64k per year and in some cases leads to an increase in staff costs due to the additional journey time incurred. However, there is no impact on the mileage based costs or the rolling stock leasing requirement.

9 Note that some comparable stations in Wiltshire have part-time staffing, however, for this high level estimate the station has been assumed to be unstaffed.

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Table 6-2 Total Annual Operating Costs (£000s, 2014/15 prices) Cost Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 Base Service OPEX BTM - SWI BTM - OXF XCD – SWI MWest - CPM Capacity charge 212 494 458 66 Power charge 366 674 705 115 Variable usage charge 93 172 180 29 Rolling stock costs 832 1,248 1,664 416 Staff costs 956 1,384 1,736 497 Total Cost 2,459 3,972 4,742 1,124 + Corsham station 133 102 64 64 Service + Corsham 2,592 4,075 4,806 1,188 + RWB Station 64 64 171 n/a Service + Corsham + RWB 2,656 4,139 4,977 n/a Source: Operating Cost Model (Atkins, 2015)

The table above shows that:  Option 3 (base service) generates the highest operating costs of approximately £4,742k per annum.  Option 2 (base service) generates a slightly lower operating cost of approximately £3,972k per annum. Relative to Option 3, rolling stock charges and staff costs are lower, being dictated by journey times. These savings are largely offset by higher capacity charges than in option 3 due the rate for Swindon to Oxford being higher than those between Cardiff and Bristol.  The costs of operating Option 1 are approximately £1.5m per annum lower than for Option 2 due to lower mileage based costs and reduced rolling stock requirements.  Option 4 only considers the additional costs of running from Bath to Chippenham, which is a relatively short distance compared with other options. As a result, the operating costs are substantially lower than for other options, approximating £1,124k per annum.

6.3.2. Operating Cost Forecast Table 6-3 presents costs projected over future years in real terms, showing how operating costs could be expected to increase over this timescale. These costs are based on the following assumptions, consistent with TAG Unit A5-3: Rail Appraisal:  Staff costs increase with real earnings growth (assumption taken from WebTAG Data Book table A5.3.1);  Real annual capital lease costs are assumed to stay constant and decrease in real terms based on the long-term GDP deflator rate, provided in WebTAG Data Book table A5.3.1;  Maintenance costs are assumed to stay constant in real terms and are converted to nominal prices using the GDP deflator; and  The forecast real growth in electricity prices is taken from WebTAG Data Book Table A1.3.7.

Operating costs are presented for each of the service options with both new stations in place (or, in the case of the MetroWest extension, with Corsham Station only in place).

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Table 6-3 Forecast Operating Costs (£000s, 2014/15 prices) Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 Year BTM - SWI BTM - OXF XCD – SWI MWest - CPM 2014/15 2,656 4,139 4,977 1,188 2015/16 2,702 4,219 5,061 1,202 2016/17 2,742 4,289 5,135 1,216 2017/18 2,748 4,295 5,143 1,219 2018/19 2,757 4,308 5,158 1,223 2019/20 2,824 4,426 5,284 1,245 2020/21 2,836 4,442 5,302 1,250 2021/22 2,872 4,503 5,369 1,263 2022/23 2,897 4,542 5,413 1,273 2023/24 2,933 4,599 5,476 1,286 2024/25 2,964 4,650 5,533 1,298 2025/26 2,995 4,698 5,587 1,310 2026/27 3,020 4,736 5,632 1,321 2027/28 3,026 4,738 5,639 1,325 2028/29 3,041 4,756 5,663 1,333 2029/30 3,076 4,812 5,727 1,347 2030/31 3,095 4,837 5,758 1,356 2031/32 3,115 4,863 5,792 1,365 2032/33 3,135 4,890 5,826 1,375 2033/34 3,156 4,918 5,862 1,385

6.3.3. Optimisation of Operating Costs The assessment of operating costs is based on some initial high level assumptions for a central case and has not sought to optimise the service options tested. An example of a way in which operating costs could potentially be reduced is through the operation of cheaper rolling stock. A sensitivity test has been undertaken based on the assumption of operating services with a 2-car Class 165 DMU. As an example, for the Bristol – Swindon service (Option 1), replacing a 4-car EMU with a 2-car DMU is estimated to reduce annual operating costs from £2.7m to £2.2m in 2014/15 prices. It should be noted that this would be dependent on the availability of rolling stock and the capacity required to accommodate the forecast demand. In addition, a detailed re-diagramming exercise for services in the region may reduce the net rolling stock requirement for the new service through interworking of rolling stock units across different routes. However, other routes in the area are not currently proposed for electrification, which may limit the ability to make the most efficient use of rolling stock.

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7. Financial Viability

7.1. Introduction This section brings together the demand and revenue forecasts (Chapter 5) with the assessment of operating costs (Chapter 6) to provide an initial indication of the financial viability of the service options investigated (with and without a station at Corsham). Capital cost implications are considered in Chapter 8.

7.2. Financial Viability Estimate Recent policy has dictated that where a new or enhanced rail service promoted by authorities requires financial support, promoters would be expected to provide funding for the first 3 years to demonstrate its commitment to the service and show that it delivers value for money in the light of actual experience10.

The table below shows the forecast change in net rail revenues for each combination of service option and station proposals alongside the projected OPEX specific to each option.

As an indicator of economic value, the table also presents the MOIRA value-of-time savings for each service in the absence of new stations. This is not available for options with new stations as this would require the bespoke derivation of journey time savings resulting from the new stations which has not been derived at this stage of the study.

Table 7-1 Service Options Net Cost (£000s, 2014/15 demand, revenue & prices)

Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 BTM - SWI BTM - OXF XCD - SWI MetroWest - CPM No New Stations Net revenue change 839 2,731 1,510 278 Net OPEX -2,459 -3,972 -4,742 -1,124 Net Financial -1,620 -1,241 -3,232 -846 Revenue : OPEX 0.34 0.69 0.32 0.25 User Benefits 986 4,112 2,033 404 + Corsham Station Net revenue change 1,434 3,153 2,217 821 Net OPEX -2,592 -4,075 -4,806 -1,188 Net Financial -1,158 -922 -2,589 -366 Revenue : OPEX 0.55 0.77 0.46 0.69 User Benefits n/a n/a n/a n/a + Corsham Station & Royal Wootton Bassett Station Net revenue change 2,010 3,781 2,986 n/a Net OPEX -2,656 -4,139 -4,977 n/a Net Financial -647 -358 -1,992 n/a Revenue : OPEX 0.76 0.91 0.60 n/a User Benefits n/a n/a n/a n/a

10 https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/local-and-regional-rail-services

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Table 7-1 shows that:

 In the absence of any new stations none of the service options considered would be forecast to generate sufficient revenue to cover their operating costs, with 2014/15 demand levels. - An extension to the MetroWest is forecast to require the least subsidy, having a net overall cost of £846k per annum. - Operating costs on the Bristol – Oxford service would be forecast to exceed revenues generated by £1,241k per annum. With revenues equating to 69% of operating costs, this service option would recoup the highest proportion of its OPEX requirements. Although a full appraisal has not been conducted, there are indications that the Bristol – Oxford service could offer a good economic return; with user benefits of £4,112k outstripping net costs of £1,241k. It should be noted that this does not account for the full range of benefits the service would bring, or the different growth rates between costs and benefits from the base year. - The Bristol – Swindon service is forecast to require subsidy of £1,620k. - Financially, the Cardiff – Swindon service performs worst out of the services considered, requiring an annual subsidy of £3,232k.  The introduction of a Corsham station is forecast to improve the financial viability of each of the services examined, but operating costs are still forecast to exceed revenues for all service options considered, with 2014/15 demand levels: - The MetroWest extension is forecast to generate an additional £543k of revenue a year at a cost of £65k. This would reduce the subsidy requirement from £846k per annum to £366k per annum (the lowest of the options considered), with revenues now covering approximately 69% of operating costs. - Similarly, the subsidy requirement on the Bristol-Oxford service is forecast to reduce from £1,241k to £922k, with a further reduction to £358k with the introduction of a Royal Wootton Bassett station. In this scenario, the base year service revenues would cover 91% of base year operating costs. - The subsidy requirement on the Bristol – Swindon service is forecast to reduce from £1,620k to £1,158k, with a further reduction to £647k with the extra addition of a Royal Wootton Bassett station. - The subsidy requirement on the Cardiff - Swindon service is forecast to reduce from £3,232k to £2,589k, with a further reduction to £1,992k with the extra addition of a Royal Wootton Bassett station.  In addition, the financial viability of the services could be anticipated to increase with future development proposals at Corsham, such as those associated with Corsham Institute. A conservative estimate suggests that a dependant development of this size could potentially increase net rail revenues generated by a Corsham Station in the region of an additional £185k per annum.

The net financial impact in the base year (2014/15) of each service option considered is illustrated in Figure 7-1.

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Figure 7-1 Net Financial Impact of Service Options (base year), With and Without a Station at Corsham 500

0 Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 BTM - SWI BTM - OXF XCD - SWI MetroWest - CPM -500

-1,000

-1,500

-2,000

-2,500 Net Financial NetFinancial Impact (£000s, 2014/15)

-3,000

-3,500

No new station + Corsham Station

Future year forecasting The forecasts presented above give consideration to the commercial case for the station based upon current day demand. Accounting for forecast exogenous growth and real changes to operating costs, the table below shows how the net operating costs (revenue – operating cost) would be forecast to evolve for each option, where:

 Scenario A: represents the new service without any new stations;  Scenario B: represents the new service with a station at Corsham; and  Scenario C: represents the new service with a station at Corsham and additionally at Royal Wootton Bassett.

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Table 7-2 Service Options Annual Net Cost (£000s, 2014/15 demand, revenue & prices)

Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 BTM - SWI BTM - OXF XCD - SWI MWest - CPM Scenario A B C A B C A B C A B 2014/15 -1,620 -1,158 -647 -1,241 -922 -358 -3,232 -2,589 -1,992 -846 -366 2015/16 -1,650 -1,182 -664 -1,281 -958 -386 -3,291 -2,639 -2,035 -856 -370 2016/17 -1,668 -1,188 -658 -1,284 -953 -368 -3,327 -2,659 -2,039 -862 -364 2017/18 -1,650 -1,154 -608 -1,214 -872 -270 -3,293 -2,606 -1,965 -857 -345 2018/19 -1,635 -1,122 -559 -1,147 -793 -172 -3,263 -2,556 -1,893 -853 -325 2019/20 -1,672 -1,145 -567 -1,180 -816 -179 -3,338 -2,611 -1,930 -866 -323 2020/21 -1,657 -1,113 -517 -1,112 -736 -80 -3,310 -2,562 -1,858 -862 -303 2021/22 -1,665 -1,104 -493 -1,087 -700 -25 -3,327 -2,559 -1,833 -866 -291 2022/23 -1,663 -1,085 -457 -1,042 -642 50 -3,323 -2,534 -1,787 -867 -276 2023/24 -1,670 -1,076 -431 -1,014 -603 108 -3,338 -2,528 -1,760 -871 -264 2024/25 -1,673 -1,062 -400 -977 -554 175 -3,345 -2,513 -1,723 -874 -250 2025/26 -1,674 -1,045 -364 -933 -498 252 -3,347 -2,493 -1,679 -876 -235 2026/27 -1,668 -1,019 -318 -874 -424 347 -3,336 -2,457 -1,618 -876 -217 2027/28 -1,642 -972 -251 -776 -311 483 -3,287 -2,383 -1,516 -870 -191 2028/29 -1,625 -933 -190 -691 -211 607 -3,254 -2,323 -1,428 -866 -168 2029/30 -1,624 -911 -146 -637 -142 700 -3,255 -2,297 -1,374 -869 -149 2030/31 -1,607 -869 -81 -546 -34 834 -3,222 -2,235 -1,280 -866 -124 2031/32 -1,586 -821 -7 -444 88 984 -3,183 -2,163 -1,175 -862 -95 2032/33 -1,564 -772 70 -338 213 1,139 -3,143 -2,090 -1,065 -857 -65 2033/34 -1,542 -721 149 -228 343 1,300 -3,102 -2,014 -952 -853 -34

The table above shows that with the central case forecast:

 With base year demand, operating costs would be forecast to exceed revenue generation for all service options, under all scenarios;  With a station at Corsham in place (scenario B) the Bristol-Oxford service would be forecast to require subsidy of £922k in the base year, with revenues projected to match operating costs by 2031/32. No other service options are forecast to deliver a positive net financial impact by 2033/34 under scenario B (although for the MetroWest extension, revenues are approaching covering operating costs by 2033/34);  With both Corsham and Royal Wootton Bassett stations in place (scenario C) the Bristol – Oxford service would be forecast to cover its operating costs by 2022/23. The Bristol – Swindon service would be forecast to reach this point by 2032/33. The operating costs for the Cardiff-Swindon service are forecast to exceed revenues in all forecast years (up to 2033/34); and  Operating costs would be forecast to exceed revenues in all years, under all scenarios, for the Cardiff- Swindon service and MetroWest extension).

7.3. Demand sensitivities Given the inherent uncertainty around demand forecasts, this study has considered demand-related sensitivity tests per evaluation sub-option, as set out in Table 7-3.

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Table 7-3 High/Low Demand Scenarios

Revenue High Low Base year Service Revenue +20% -20%

Base year Station Revenue +20% -20% Demand Growth +2.0% x SQRT(years) -2.0% x SQRT(years)

Based upon the above assumptions, Table 7-4 details the forecast net financial impact (revenue – operating cost) of each service under low/ high growth scenarios.

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Table 7-4 High/Low Demand Scenarios -Service Options Annual Net Cost (£000s, 2014/15 prices) BTM - SWI BTM - OXF XCD - SWI MWest - CPM Scenario A B C A B C A B C A B Low Demand Scenario 2014/15 -1,788 -1,445 -1,049 -1,787 -1,552 -1,114 -3,534 -3,032 -2,589 -901 -531 2015/16 -1,834 -1,496 -1,104 -1,878 -1,647 -1,213 -3,622 -3,124 -2,688 -981 -549 2016/17 -1,861 -1,518 -1,120 -1,912 -1,678 -1,238 -3,674 -3,169 -2,726 -992 -553 2017/18 -1,852 -1,499 -1,092 -1,872 -1,631 -1,179 -3,656 -3,139 -2,683 -990 -542 2018/19 -1,845 -1,481 -1,063 -1,832 -1,583 -1,120 -3,642 -3,112 -2,641 -989 -531 2019/20 -1,890 -1,518 -1,090 -1,891 -1,637 -1,163 -3,731 -3,189 -2,707 -1,005 -536 2020/21 -1,884 -1,500 -1,060 -1,850 -1,587 -1,100 -3,717 -3,160 -2,664 -1,005 -524 2021/22 -1,900 -1,505 -1,054 -1,850 -1,580 -1,081 -3,749 -3,178 -2,667 -1,012 -520 2022/23 -1,905 -1,499 -1,036 -1,829 -1,551 -1,039 -3,758 -3,173 -2,647 -1,016 -512 2023/24 -1,919 -1,502 -1,028 -1,825 -1,539 -1,015 -3,786 -3,186 -2,646 -1,023 -508 2024/25 -1,930 -1,501 -1,014 -1,813 -1,519 -981 -3,807 -3,191 -2,636 -1,029 -501 2025/26 -1,938 -1,496 -997 -1,793 -1,491 -939 -3,822 -3,191 -2,619 -1,034 -494 2026/27 -1,940 -1,484 -970 -1,760 -1,447 -879 -3,826 -3,177 -2,587 -1,037 -483 2027/28 -1,923 -1,451 -922 -1,688 -1,364 -779 -3,791 -3,123 -2,513 -1,034 -465 2028/29 -1,913 -1,426 -881 -1,629 -1,294 -692 -3,772 -3,085 -2,454 -1,034 -450 2029/30 -1,921 -1,418 -857 -1,603 -1,256 -637 -3,789 -3,081 -2,430 -1,040 -440 2030/31 -1,912 -1,391 -812 -1,540 -1,181 -542 -3,771 -3,042 -2,367 -1,040 -423 2031/32 -1,901 -1,360 -761 -1,469 -1,095 -435 -3,750 -2,996 -2,295 -1,040 -403 2032/33 -1,889 -1,327 -708 -1,394 -1,006 -323 -3,727 -2,948 -2,220 -1,039 -383 2033/34 -1,876 -1,293 -652 -1,317 -914 -207 -3,704 -2,898 -2,142 -1,039 -362 High Demand Scenario 2014/15 -1,452 -871 -245 -695 -291 399 -2,930 -2,145 -1,394 -790 -202 2015/16 -1,460 -857 -209 -661 -243 471 -2,949 -2,136 -1,358 -858 -183 2016/17 -1,466 -842 -173 -625 -192 545 -2,963 -2,124 -1,319 -861 -166 2017/18 -1,437 -789 -97 -519 -70 693 -2,909 -2,042 -1,205 -852 -136 2018/19 -1,411 -739 -23 -419 48 836 -2,860 -1,964 -1,096 -845 -105 2019/20 -1,438 -745 -7 -420 61 874 -2,918 -1,994 -1,099 -856 -94 2020/21 -1,414 -697 64 -322 177 1,015 -2,873 -1,920 -994 -849 -65 2021/22 -1,413 -674 111 -267 247 1,110 -2,874 -1,893 -937 -851 -44 2022/23 -1,402 -640 168 -193 337 1,225 -2,854 -1,845 -859 -849 -20 2023/24 -1,401 -616 214 -137 409 1,321 -2,853 -1,816 -801 -851 0 2024/25 -1,395 -587 266 -73 490 1,427 -2,845 -1,779 -734 -852 22 2025/26 -1,387 -555 322 -1 578 1,543 -2,831 -1,736 -660 -852 45 2026/27 -1,372 -514 389 88 685 1,678 -2,805 -1,677 -567 -849 73 2027/28 -1,338 -452 478 215 832 1,854 -2,740 -1,579 -433 -841 107 2028/29 -1,311 -397 560 329 967 2,019 -2,690 -1,495 -313 -835 139 2029/30 -1,302 -359 626 413 1,071 2,154 -2,675 -1,445 -226 -835 166 2030/31 -1,274 -301 715 536 1,215 2,331 -2,624 -1,357 -98 -829 201 2031/32 -1,243 -236 814 671 1,375 2,528 -2,567 -1,258 44 -822 240 2032/33 -1,211 -169 915 811 1,540 2,730 -2,508 -1,157 191 -815 280

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Table 7-4 indicates that:

 Under the low demand scenario, operating costs are forecast to exceed revenues for all service options considered, up to 2033/34. The MetroWest extension (base service) is forecast to have the lowest subsidy requirement in both the base year and by the 2033/34 forecast year (although an absolute increase in subsidy amount is actually forecast over this timescale – this compares to a reduction in subsidy requirement of approximately £450k for the Bristol-Oxford service over the same timescale);  Under the high demand scenario, revenue for the Bristol-Oxford service (base service) is forecast to cover operating costs by 2026/27. None of the other services (base service) are forecast to reach this point by 2033/34. With a Corsham station, the Bristol-Oxford service is forecast to cover operating costs by 2018/19 and with the further addition of a station at Royal Wotton Bassett a surplus of approximately £400k is forecast in the base year.  For the Oxford – Bristol service (base service), under the low demand scenario, forecast subsidy requirements would be £1,787k in the base year, reducing to £1,317k by 2033/34. This could potentially still deliver an economic return, with user benefits from journey times of £4,112k projected for the base year.  Although a Corsham station would be forecast to reduce net costs on this service, an economic assessment would be required to assess if there is an economic case for the station.

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8. Capital Cost Estimates

8.1. Introduction This section provides a high level analysis of the potential capital costs of constructing a station at Corsham, as well as the costs of any additional infrastructure enhancements required to accommodate the new service options, as identified in Chapter 4.

In advance of any station and site feasibility / design work at this stage of the study, costs presented are high level estimates only, based on working assumptions using a ‘bottom-up’ approach. It is understood that a previous station design exists (from 2002), but this has not been referred to at this stage. Cost estimates will need to be reviewed / refined based upon future station design / costing work.

8.2. Station Construction Cost A station at Corsham would be an entirely new rail station and, as such, some assumptions need to be made regarding the facilities that would be provided. Network Rail categorises UK rail stations into five categories. Given the level of service proposed to call at Corsham, and the estimated station patronage, it has been assumed that a new station should fall into category F, which is a small, unstaffed station. A list of definitions for station categories in the UK is provided in the table below.

Table 8-1 Definitions of Station Categorisation

Category Definition A – National Hub Major station providing a gateway to the rail network from a large area, and acts as a significant interchange hub B – Regional Hub Large station providing a gateway to the rail network from a large area. Often served by more than one TOC with a mix of service types. May be a terminus for some services C – Important Feeder Significant ‘feeder’ station, on a busy trunk route or as a subsidiary hub station. Often with services from more than one TOC and a regular long-distance service D - Medium Staffed Medium-sized, staffed station, with a core inter-urban business or high-volume inner-suburban business E – Small Staffed Small, staffed station often with just one member of staff at any one time, or for only part of the day F – Small Unstaffed Small, unstaffed station

Source: Network Rail

The assumed indicative infrastructure specification for the new Corsham station is described in Table 8-2. This forms the basis for the indicative capital cost estimate and the station operating cost estimates (see Chapter 6).

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Table 8-2 High Level Specification for Proposed Corsham Station

Works Item Include

Two Platforms  Staffed station building with heated waiting area, cafe/retail facility, accessible ticket office × counter Canopy roof over the platforms with bench seating × Footbridge between platforms with ramps to DfT accessible standards 

Waiting shelters, one per platform  Car parking 130 spaces11 Bus services including waiting shelters and bus information 

Taxi rank × Ticket machines 

Customer help points 

Toilets including accessible toilets × Cycle storage 

Station signage 

Train information boards 

Customer Information Screens 

Public address system 

CCTV 

8.2.1. Station Capital Cost Estimate An indicative capital cost of constructing the station has been estimated using a ‘bottom-up’ approach. The rates for different cost elements required for the new station have been based on cost estimation work relating to similar schemes, factored by an approximate estimated quantity required for each item (informed by the indicative infrastructure specification described above). For example, a new platform construction cost per square metre has been multiplied by an estimate of the platform area and the number of platforms required in order to obtain the total platform cost. The total indicative cost estimate for the new station has then been benchmarked against other recently constructed stations, as described in the following section. It should be noted that the indicative cost estimate is not based on any particular design and cost estimates will need to be reviewed / refined based upon future station design / costing work.

Further details of the approach to developing the indicative cost estimate, and key assumptions, are provided in ‘Technical Note Stage 1b(iii) – Indicative Station Costs’, Ref: TN 1b(iii).

Table 8-3 presents an indicative capital cost estimate associated with constructing a new station, which is estimated to be in the region of £10.8m in 2014/15 prices, or £13.7m with 30% Optimism Bias applied.

11 High level initial assumption only – parking demand / provision should be investigated further.

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Table 8-3 Corsham Station Indicative Capital Cost Estimate

Capital Cost Items Corsham Station Capital Costs – Indicative Only (£000s, 2014/15 prices) General site clearance £57 Ticket machines £40 Station platforms (2 x 200m platforms assumed) £2,321 Footbridge £1,294 External works (inc. access road & car park) £1,144 Telecommunications (inc. CCTV, PA & Customer Information System) £969 Railway systems (inc. signalling, power upgrades & permanent way) £910 Allowance for unmeasurable items £602 Preliminaries £1,324 Contractor's overhead profit £794 Design £437 Project management £437 CAPEX (Exc. Optimism Bias) £10,758 Optimism Bias (30%) £2,934 Total CAPEX £13,692

8.2.2. Cost Benchmarking Benchmarking of the cost estimate for Corsham station was carried out with other recently opened stations in the UK to validate the construction cost estimate, and is presented in Table 8-4. The indicative capital cost estimate of £10.8m, excluding 30% Optimism Bias, is broadly in line with other recently constructed stations, albeit on the higher side. Future stages of work will need to include more detailed station design and costing work to refine this initial indicative estimate.

Table 8-4 Benchmarking of Corsham CAPEX with other UK Stations

Station Category Annual Usage Number of Footbridge Station CAPEX (£m, (000s, 2013/14) Platforms Building 2014/15) Corby E 256 1 N Y 9.9 Mitcham E 862 2 Y Y 7.2 Eastfields Stratford F 35 2 Y N 7.1 Parkway Corsham F 403* 2 Y N 10.8

Source: Annual Usage from ORR; CAPEX from general media

*Corsham station usage forecast based on 2014/15 demand

8.3. Cost of Additional Infrastructure As part of the assessment of the operational viability of service options to serve Corsham station the re- opening of the third platform at Chippenham, and the associated construction of new track, has been identified to accommodate the reversing of trains at the station required in Option 4.

A funding proposal has been submitted by Wiltshire Council through the Swindon and Wiltshire Local Enterprise Partnership for the construction of a third platform at Chippenham, with an estimated cost of

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£19.2m. The cost of this infrastructure needs to be considered as part of the financial assessment of Option 4. The funding application also identifies the third platform at Chippenham as potentially required to accommodate the other options, however, the operational analysis described in Section 4.4 does not appear to indicate that this would be necessary within the current or proposed future timetable.

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9. Conclusions and Next Steps

This interim report provides an overview of the initial feasibility work undertaken to date in relation to a potential station at Corsham. It combines the findings of the analysis in relation to Stage 1a / Stage 1b (covering initial operational and performance aspects) and Stage 2 (covering initial commercial / economic aspects – with particular regard to demand and revenue implications).

This initial feasibility work has been based on high level analysis. It is informed by a bespoke operating cost model and use of a gravity model and MOIRA software for demand and revenue forecasting. Key assumptions and uncertainties are set out within the report. Figures presented in relation to operating costs and demand /revenue are direct outputs from the models. The inherent uncertainties in relation to demand and revenue forecasting in particular have been considered through the application of high / low sensitivity tests around the central case. All figures referred to in this section relate to the central case.

9.1. Key Findings In relation to the potential for a station at Corsham, the following key messages can be drawn from the initial analysis undertaken to date:

 There is an identified market for rail demand for a station at Corsham, particularly from Corsham into Bath and Bristol. Currently rail mode share from Corsham to Bath is negligible. Rail already captures 13% of mode share for travel to work between Corsham (MSOA) and Bristol as the fastest highway journey time typically sees commuters travelling via the outskirts of Chippenham to access the M4 at Junction 17. Consequently, a station at Corsham would be expected to deliver large journey time savings for these passengers.

 With the service proposals considered for the purposes of this study, the demand and revenue forecasting indicates that a Corsham station would be forecast to carry up to 0.4m passengers per annum. Ticket receipts of up to £1.4m would be forecast to generate additional rail revenues of up to approximately £0.9m per annum.

 Future development plans and proposals within the Corsham area would be expected to further increase the demand (and revenue) associated with a station at Corsham: - For example, the expansion of the Corsham campus student population by 2,000 - 3,000 is conservatively estimated to increase net rail revenues generated by a station at Corsham by approximately £0.2 per annum. Whilst this is not committed, proposals for such a development, along with those for the ‘Corsham Institute,’ should continue to be monitored.

 A station at Royal Wootton Bassett (in addition to a station at Corsham) is forecast to generate up to 0.33m passengers per annum, with ticket receipts of £2.1m generating additional rail revenues of £1.1m.

 Network Rail’s historical position is that it does not support plans to re-open a station at Corsham for operational reasons. The station is not part of its current plans, but there is recognition that it could potentially be considered, in particular as part of a “new stations package” associated with MetroWest, subject to funding and business case work.

 The main obstacle to a commercial case being demonstrated for a new station at Corsham is the provision of a suitable / viable service to serve the station: - A regular direct London service calling at Corsham is not considered to be feasible, primarily due to being incompatible with wider industry goals to improve the quality of intercity services on the Western route. The extra time incurred on these services would also result in a revenue loss on London flows. High level tests in MOIRA indicate that stopping twelve London services a day, incurring a time penalty of three minutes, would result in a reduction in national rail revenue of approximately £1.4m, with user dis-benefits of £1.5m. - For each of the four service options considered (base service), the estimated annual operating costs for the new service exceed the forecast annual revenue generated, across all forecast

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years (to 2033/34). However, the Bristol – Oxford service, in particular, shows signs of potential for delivering a favourable economic return (when user benefits are also taken into account). - The revenue generated by introducing a call at a Corsham station outweighs the lost revenue from increased journey time for through passengers (under all four service options). - Therefore, the addition of a call at a Corsham station is forecast to enhance the revenue generation of each service option, with a minimal associated increase in cost (station operating costs are low relative to the cost of operating the service). Whilst this improves the commercial case for each of the services, costs are still forecast to exceed revenues for each option. The exception is for future years on the Bristol – Oxford service, where revenues are projected to outweigh operating costs by 2031/32 due to forecast rail revenues growing at a faster rate than forecast rail operating costs.

 The analysis has not sought to optimise the service options tested. A sensitivity test has been undertaken around rolling stock. As an example, for the Bristol – Swindon service (Option 1), replacing a 4-car EMU with a 2-car DMU is estimated to reduce annual operating costs from £2.7m to £2.2m (2014/15 prices). It should be noted that this would be dependent on the availability of rolling stock and the capacity required to accommodate the forecast demand. In addition, a detailed re-diagramming exercise for services in the region may reduce the net rolling stock requirement for the new service through interworking of rolling stock units across different routes. However, other routes in the area are not currently proposed for electrification, which may limit the ability to make the most efficient use of rolling stock.

 From an operational performance perspective, high level analysis indicates that it is potentially viable to introduce a new hourly service between Bristol and Swindon to serve the new station, with possible extensions to Oxford, or Cardiff. However, a number of potential conflicts have been identified, and the platform capacity at stations where the new service would terminate requires further detailed investigation to ensure that there is not an adverse performance impact on existing services. Furthermore, the IEP timetable planned for December 2019 will introduce additional services onto the Great Western Main Line, particularly between Didcot and Swindon, and the mix of high speed passenger services and slow freight services between Didcot and Swindon also needs to be taken into account. The additional service will need to be developed in conjunction with the wider network planning for the Great Western route undertaken by Network Rail and Great Western Railway. Specific analysis for Option 4 suggests that the re-instatement of the third platform at Chippenham would be required to terminate MetroWest services at Chippenham, which would incur additional capital costs.

 A full economic appraisal is not within the scope of this study. However, consideration of economic benefits, such as journey time benefits and environmental benefits, may enhance the overall case for a new service. As with the demand forecasts, economic appraisal would need to consider the economic case of introducing a new service, both with and without the introduction of a new station (including the capital cost requirements): - In the absence of a Corsham station, the Bristol Temple Meads – Oxford service option is forecast to offer user benefits in excess of the net cost, including under the low growth scenario considered. Therefore, unless more detailed operational investigations revealed additional costs, or resulted in performance implications for existing services, the service would appear to offer the potential for a favourable economic return (although notwithstanding the forecast subsidy requirement). - The introduction of a Corsham station is forecast to improve the net financial impact, although an economic appraisal would be required to ascertain whether the new station would have an economic return on the original service proposed.

9.2. Next Steps It is considered that demand for a station at Corsham, and any business case developed to support its case, would be heavily dependent on the long term operation of a suitable service. Based on the initial analysis undertaken, the initial financial viability of potential service options demonstrates a negative financial impact (revenue – operating costs). Notwithstanding the forecast subsidy requirement the Bristol – Oxford service, in particular, appears to offer the potential for a favourable economic return, when user benefits are also taken into account.

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Should a case for a Corsham station continue to be pursued, the focus is therefore likely to need to be on demonstrating that a suitable service could operate to serve Corsham. Building upon this initial feasibility work, this could potentially be supported by:

 Engaging with key parties, including Great Western Railway and Network Rail (and potentially other local authorities), to gauge wider industry support for these services;

 Further exploring the full case for potential service options through economic appraisal, in order to better understand the overall economic viability of services, both without and with new stations; and

 Undertaking more detailed analysis of operational feasibility and performance impacts on potential services, including considering potential optimisation.

Following consideration of this initial feasibility work by Wiltshire Council it is anticipated that next steps can be discussed and defined in greater detail, including potential work relating to Stage 3 (site suitability / design) and / or whether a Project Inception Report is to be submitted to Network Rail (based upon the current level of feasibility work). Future stages of work will need to take into account the requirements of Network Rail’s GRIP process, should a PIR be submitted and subsequently approved.

Atkins Corsham Rail Station Initial Feasibility - Interim Report (Stages 1 and 2) | Version 3.0 | 3 December 2015 51

Nick Winnard Atkins Ltd

[email protected]

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