Hazardand Riskassessment for Induced Seismicity in Groningen
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Hazard and Risk Assessment for Induced Seismicity in Groningen Interim Update November 2015 1 Hazard and Risk Assessment for Induced Seismicity Groningen - Update 7th November 2015 © EP201511200172 Dit rapport is een weerslag van een voortdurend studie- en dataverzamelingsprogramma en bevat de stand der kennis van november 2015. Het copyright van dit rapport ligt bij de Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij B.V. Het copyright van de onderliggende studies berust bij de respectievelijke auteurs. Dit rapport of delen daaruit mogen alleen met een nadrukkelijke status-en bronvermelding worden overgenomen of gepubliceerd. 2 Hazard and Risk Assessment for Induced Seismicity Groningen - Update 7th November 2015 Contents 1 Management Summary .................................................................................................................. 6 Summary ............................................................................................................................................. 6 Conclusions ..................................................................................................................................... 6 Background to this Study ................................................................................................................ 7 New in this November 2015 update: .............................................................................................. 7 Study Scope ..................................................................................................................................... 7 Further work ................................................................................................................................... 8 Reader’s Guide .................................................................................................................................... 8 2 Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 11 Groningen Gas Field .......................................................................................................................... 11 History of induced earthquakes in Groningen .................................................................................. 13 Study and Data Acquisition Plan ....................................................................................................... 14 Scope and Expertise Required .......................................................................................................... 15 Assurance .......................................................................................................................................... 17 Winningsplan 2013 ........................................................................................................................... 17 Winningsplan 2016 ........................................................................................................................... 18 Hazard and Risk Update end-2014................................................................................................ 19 Hazard and Risk Update mid-2015................................................................................................ 19 3 From Gas Production to Hazard .................................................................................................... 20 Groningen gasfield Models ............................................................................................................... 22 Groningen model update 2015 ..................................................................................................... 22 Groningen dynamic model status update 2015 ............................................................................ 27 Subsidence proxy .......................................................................................................................... 29 Production System ........................................................................................................................ 33 Operating the Groningen gas field ................................................................................................ 34 Managing the production from the Groningen field .................................................................... 35 Rock Deformation - Compaction Modelling ..................................................................................... 41 Improvements Version 1 (Mid 2015) ............................................................................................ 41 Improvements Version 2 (End 2015) ............................................................................................ 41 Outlook winningsplan 2016 .......................................................................................................... 41 Results ........................................................................................................................................... 41 Linear compaction model (base case) .......................................................................................... 42 RTCiM / time decay compaction model ........................................................................................ 43 Seismological Model ......................................................................................................................... 46 3 Hazard and Risk Assessment for Induced Seismicity Groningen - Update 7th November 2015 Strain-partitioning and Event-rate models ................................................................................... 48 Alternative Seismological Models ................................................................................................. 50 Maximum Magnitude ................................................................................................................... 53 Improvements Version 1 (May 2015) ........................................................................................... 54 Improvements Version 2 (November 2015) ................................................................................. 54 Improvements for Winningsplan 2016 (Mid 2016) ...................................................................... 55 Ground Motion Prediction ................................................................................................................ 56 Availability Ground Acceleration Data .......................................................................................... 56 Properties of the overburden (s-wave velocity and density) ....................................................... 57 Improvements for Version 2 (End 2015) ....................................................................................... 67 Improvements for Winningsplan 2016 (Mid 2016) ...................................................................... 67 4 Hazard ........................................................................................................................................... 68 Hazard Metric ................................................................................................................................... 68 Peak Ground Acceleration ............................................................................................................ 68 Probabilistic Hazard Assessment ...................................................................................................... 72 Seismic Event Rate and Moment release with time ..................................................................... 72 Ground Acceleration incorporating Site Effects ........................................................................... 74 Hazard Assessment ....................................................................................................................... 75 Sensitivity of the Hazard Assessment to Production .................................................................... 79 Hazard Summary ........................................................................................................................... 80 5 From Hazard to Risk ...................................................................................................................... 81 Monitoring Network for Building Damage ....................................................................................... 83 Building Selection .......................................................................................................................... 83 Building Sensors ............................................................................................................................ 83 Building Inspections ...................................................................................................................... 86 Data Transmission and Communication ....................................................................................... 86 Development and Calibration of Building Fragility ........................................................................... 88 Overview of program for developing v2 fragility functions .......................................................... 88 Calibrating numerical models with data from the field ................................................................ 89 Calibrating numerical models with data from the laboratory ...................................................... 90 Development of v2 fragility functions .........................................................................................