COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, Washington

U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Office of Policy Development and Research As of May 1, 2017

Summary

Economy Rental Market Nonfarm payroll growth in the Seattle The overall rental housing market in Housing Market Area HMA averaged 3.0 percent, annually, the HMA is tight, with an estimated from 2012 through 2016, contribut- vacancy rate of 4.0 percent, down from ing to strong economic conditions. 7.1 percent in April 2010. Apartment During the 12 months ending April market conditions are tight, with a San Juan 2017, nonfarm payrolls increased by 4.8- ­percent vacancy rate during the first Skagit Island Puget Sound 52,000 jobs, or 3.2 percent, compared quarter of 2017, down from 5.3 percent

Snohomish with the number of jobs during the 12 a year earlier, and the average asking Clallam Chelan Jefferson months ending April 2016, and the rent increased more than 7 percent, to Kitsap King unemployment rate declined from $1,606 (Reis, Inc.). Demand is estimated 4.4 to 3.7 percent. During the 3-year for 32,750 new, market-rate units during Mason Kittias

Pierce forecast period, nonfarm payrolls are the forecast period. The estimated Thurston Yakima expected to increase by an average of 20,800 units currently under construc- Situated along the Puget Sound in north- 36,600 jobs, or 2.2 percent, annually. tion will meet a portion of the forecast western Washington State, the Seattle- demand (Table 1). Bellevue-Everett Housing Market Area Sales Market (hereafter, the Seattle HMA) consists of Table 1. Housing Demand in the Sales housing market conditions in King and Snohomish Counties and is Seattle HMA* During the the HMA are currently tight, with an Forecast Period coterminous with the Seattle-Bellevue- estimated vacancy rate of 1.2 percent, Everett, WA Metropolitan Division. Seattle HMA* down from 2.6 percent in April 2010. The HMA is recognized as a center for Sales Rental During the 12 months ending April Units Units aeronautical design and manufacturing, 2017, new and existing home sales Total demand 33,500 32,750 software design, and trade, with the totaled 60,350, up 6 percent from the Under construction 3,250 20,800 presence of globally renowned compa- previous 12 months, and the average * Seattle-Bellevue-Everett HMA. nies that include The Boeing Company, Notes: Total demand represents estimated sales price increased 9 percent, to Microsoft Corporation, and Amazon. production necessary to achieve a balanced $537,600 (CoreLogic, Inc., with ad- market at the end of the forecast period. com, Inc. Units under construction as of May 1, 2017. justments by the analyst). During the A portion of the estimated 28,000 other forecast period, demand is estimated vacant units in the HMA will likely satisfy some of the forecast demand. The forecast for 33,500 new homes. The 3,250 period is May 1, 2017, to May 1, 2020. homes currently under construction Source: Estimates by analyst Market Details and a portion of the estimated 28,000 Economic Conditions...... 2 other vacant units in the HMA that may return to the market will satisfy Population and Households...... 7 part of the demand (Table 1). Housing Market Trends...... 9 Data Profile...... 16 Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 2 Source: U.S.Bureau ofLaborStatistics * Seattle-Bellevue-Everett HMA. Table 2. Source: U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics averages through April 2016and April 2017. Notes: Numbersmaynotaddtototalsbecauseofrounding.Based on12-month * Seattle-Bellevue-EverettHMA. Figure 1. Labor force and Total nonfarmpayroll jobs Goods-producing sectors resident employment Service-providing sectors Manufacturing Mining, logging,&construction Government Other services Leisure &hospitality Education &healthservices Professional &businessservices Financial activities Information Transportation &utilities Wholesale &retail trade 1,190,000 1,290,000 1,390,000 1,490,000 1,590,000 1,690,000 Economic Conditions 12-MonthAverage NonfarmPayroll Jobsinthe by Sector ment Rateinthe Trends inLaborForce,ResidentEmployment,andUnemploy

Labor force 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005 Seattle HMA,* Resident employment 2006 April 2016 2007 1,350,100 1,610,100 214,500 157,600 202,700 244,100 240,900 171,100 260,000 12 MonthsEnding 57,100 82,300 97,100 53,800 88,900 2008 for manufacturing duringthepast in every payroll nonfarm sectorexcept ending April2016.Job gainsoccurred 3.3 percent,duringthe12months payrolls increasedby51,700jobs, or million jobs(Table 2).Bycomparison, by 52,000jobs, or3.2percent,to1.66 payrollsApril 2017, nonfarm increased percent. Duringthe12monthsending average 1.8 annual growth rateof 2016, comparedwiththenational 3.0 percentayear from2012through payroll growth intheHMAaveraged in thenationsince2011.Nonfarm jobgrowth outpacinggrowth the rateof E 12 months. Incontrasttothisrecent

2009 2000Through2016 2010 Seattle HMAarestrong, with conomic conditionsinthe April 2017 1,401,900 1,662,100

2011 219,700 165,200 211,300 251,600 103,900 251,000 166,000 260,200 59,000 84,100 56,200 94,200

2012

2013 Unemployment rate Absolute

2014 Change – 5,100 10,100 51,800 52,000 Seattle 5,200 1,900 7,600 8,600 7,500 1,800 6,800 2,400 5,300

2015 200

2016

Change Percent HMA,* – 3.0 10.0 2.4 3.3 4.8 4.2 3.1 2.2 7.0 4.5 4.2 3.8 6.0 0.1 3.2 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 -

Unemployment rate

exceeding growth inthelaborforce. residentemployment growth far of from 4.4percentayear prior, aresult months endingApril2017,down averaged 3.7percentduringthe12 Theunemploymentdownturn. rate during 2008beforetheeconomic percent higherthanthepeakrecorded jobs intheHMAaremorethan11 payroll nonfarm the nation.Current 2.5-percent average annual declinein 2009 through2010,comparedwitha 3.2percentayear from decline of payrollswith nonfarm averaging a the HMAthaninnationaleconomy, Great Recession were moresevere in the trend, jobslossesasaresultof HMA experienced particularly strong wide. From 1996through 2000,the HMA, with69,058employees state it remainsthelargest employer inthe toChicagoin2001, its headquarters Although TheBoeingCompany moved respectively, statewide (Table 3). estimated 25,000to35,000employees, Amazon.com, with45,535andan Microsoftand of global headquarters sectors. TheHMAishometothe professional andbusinessservices tion, government, manufacturing, and theinforma of classified inportions related services. Theseindustriesare and dataprocessing, hosting, and software design,telecommunications, nautical designandmanufacturing, high-tech) industries, includingaero (hereafter,center forhigh-technology The HMAisrecognizedasaglobal through 2016. and theunemployment ratefrom2000 the laborforce, residentemployment, recession. Figure1shows trendsin thenational at 9.4percentbecauseof nomic expansion, andpeakedin2010 eco through 2008,duringaperiodof rate averaged 3.9percentfrom2005 By comparison,theunemployment - - - - Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 3 Source: U.S.Bureau ofLaborStatistics Note: Basedon12-month averagesthrough April 2017. * Seattle-Bellevue-Everett HMA. Figure 2. Education &healthservices12.7% Economic Conditions Leisure &hospitality9.9% Professional &businessservices15.1%

Current NonfarmPayroll Jobsinthe Other services3.5% Government 13.2% Government

Continued 48,700 jobs, or3.8percent,ayear, payrolls increasingbyanaverage of economic growth, withnonfarm growth inhigh-techindustriessince greatly impactedtheHMA;however, recession andtheGreatRecession 0.4percent.Thedot.com rate of payrolls declinedatanaverage annual annually. Bycomparison,nationwide 25,400jobs,average or1.8percent, of payrolls intheHMAdeclinedbyan From 2001through2003,nonfarm effects ontheHMAwere significant. about anationalrecession,andthe com bubblecollapsed,bringing Subsequent tothatgrowth, thedot. average 2.4percent. annual rateof payrollsnonfarm increased atan dot.com bubble),whereasnational toasthe high-tech industries(referred rapidgrowth in largely theresultof Table 3. Sources: Moody’s Economy.com; companywebsites Note: Excludeslocalschooldistricts. * Seattle-Bellevue-EverettHMA. Starbucks Corporation Swedish MedicalCenter Costco WholesaleCorporation Fred MeyerStores Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. Providence Health&Services Amazon.com, Inc. University ofWashington Microsoft Corporation The BoeingCompany Mining, logging,&construction5.7% Financial activities5.1% Name ofEmployer Manufacturing 10.0%

Major Employersinthe Information 6.2% Seattle HMA Transportation &utilities3.4% Wholesale &retail trade15.1% ,* bySector Leisure &hospitality Education &healthservices Wholesale &retail trade Wholesale &retail trade Wholesale &retail trade Education &healthservices Wholesale &retail trade Government Professional &businessservices Manufacturing Seattle Nonfarm Payroll Sector increasingly resilient. economy todiversify andbecome the late1990shasallowed the the professional and business services the professional andbusinessservices theGreat Recession affected onset of ments andtelecommunications. The improve technology for information advancements increasedthedemand 2008, mainly becausetechnological per­ 8,200jobs,ing anaverage or4.3 of The sectorreboundedquickly, add dropasthebubblecollapsed. sharp thedot.combubble, followed bya of strong jobgrowth duringthebuildup nomic conditionsintheHMA,with overall sectormirrored services eco trends in the professional and business from 2010through2016.Growth 2,350 jobs, or7.3percent,annually, industry, whichaddedanaverage of systems designandrelatedservices be attributed to hiring in the computer thisgrowth can 251,600 jobs. of Part added 7,500jobs, or3.1percent,to sector sional andbusinessservices months endingApril2017,theprofes the HMA(Figure2).During12 payrolls totalnonfarm in percent of approximatelyeach representing 15 as thelargest sectorintheeconomy, tied withwholesaleandretailtrade Professional andbusinessservices HMA* cent, annually, from2004through 25,000–35,000 Employees Number of 11,000 11,640 14,000 15,500 16,000 17,553 34,000 45,535 69,058 - -

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Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 4 Economic Conditions

Continued which openedanengineeringofficein or 4.0percent,annually. Facebook, 8,700jobs,increased byanaverage of from 2011through2016,payrolls the economicrecovery began,and more jobsthananyothersectorsince sectorhasadded business services the recession,professionaland percent. Despitethedeclineduring declining byonly 400jobs, or0.2 slowed significantly during2010, 8.9 percent,during2009.Job losses sector payrolls fellby19,400jobs, or research anddevelopment services; andscientific technology information in businessinvestment, specifically in sector, reduction whichledtoasharp fastest-growing sector since the fastest-growing sector sincethe and retailtrade hasbeenthesecond from 2009through2010.Wholesale 8,200 jobs, or3.8percent,annually the recession,losinganaverage of growth declinedswiftly becauseof or 1.1percent,annually. However, 2,300jobs,creasing byanaverage of economic expansion intheHMA, general 2008, duringaperiodof sector was strongfrom2004through consumer spending. Job growth inthe declinein finances causedasharp burst, because the strain on household affected whenthedot.combubble and retailtradesectorwere significantly 251,000 jobs. Payrolls inthewholesale added 10,100jobs, or4.2percent,to wholesale andretailtradesector, which 2017, jobgainswere inthe greatest During the12monthsendingApril attract morehigh-techfirms. period astheHMAcontinues to continue duringthe3-year forecast sector jobgrowth isanticipatedto Professional andbusinessservices 2018. from 1,000to4,000bytheendof company togrow itslocalworkforce into anew spacethatwillallow the Seattle in2010,announceditismoving - early 2017,thecompanyannounced 32,000 workers 5years ago, andin sonal workers), comparedwithonly people globally (notincludingsea e-commerce giantemploys 341,000 the HMA.To lendmorecontext, the openings listedonitswebsite tofillin which hasapproximately 8,950job Amazon.com, the rapidexpansion of canbeattributedto growth history thesector’s recent percent. Muchof high recordedin2008byalmost15 theprerecession currently surpasses employment inthesector the level of a year from2011through2016,and 7,500jobs,average or3.4percent, of eco San Francisco metropolitanarea living comparedtothe low costof the intellectualcapitalandrelatively in theHMAtotakeadvantage of arechoosingtoexpandtech firms and manySiliconValley-based high- most educatedcityinAmerica( help create. Seattleranksasthesixth workforce thesehigh-techcompanies it alsobenefitsfromthehighly skilled Amazon.com, Microsoft,andBoeing, each jobcreatedbycompanieslike Not only doestheHMAbenefitfrom 2022. with planstoexpand to12millionby and arounddowntown Seattleby2019, exceeding 10millionsquarefeetin Amazon.com willhave afootprint (Downtown SeattleAssociation). cluding theirnew world headquarters in square feetunderconstruction, 2016, withanadditional3million neighborhoodsduring and surrounding officespaceindowntown Seattle feet of Amazon.com added1.7millionsquare July 2016). downtown Seattle(asof officespacein million squarefeetof months. Amazon.comoccupies8.5 the UnitedStatesduringnext 18 plans tohire100,000moreworkers in ­nomic recovery began,adding an Forbes - - ), ), Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 5 Economic Conditions Source: U.S.Bureau ofLabor Statistics Note: Current isbasedon12-month averages through April 2017. * Seattle-Bellevue-Everett HMA. Figure 3. – 20 – SectorGrowthinthe – 10

Continued 0 Seattle HMA sector in percentage terms in the past inthepast sector inpercentage terms 2017, makingitthefastest-growing during the12monthsendingApril which added6,800jobs, or7.0percent, sector, impactstheinformation portion growth inhigh-techindustries, alarge Although manysectorsbenefitfrom will totalacombined149apartments. a residentialtower oneachblockthat officespace, alongwith square feetof in early 2019,willinclude600,000 blocks andisexpected tobecomplete The campus, whichwillspantwo full cloud computing indowntown Seattle. opening acampusfor is and HMA has several facilitiesinthe already (GeekWire LLC). Google, Inc., expanded, payrolls increased at an a nationalrecession.Astheeconomy thebubbleburstthatcaused cause of averaging 3.4percent,annually, be fore joblosses 2consecutive years of average 9.0percent,be­ annual rateof mation sectorpayrolls increasedatan bubble from1996through2001,infor­ thedot.com During thebuildupof growing sectorsince2000(Figure3). 12 monthsandthesecondfastest- 10 20 ,* PercentageChange,2000toCurrent 30 - 40

sector increasedby5,200jobs, or2.4 payrollsNonfarm inthegovernment the HMA. move high-techfirms to number of continue tohireandasanincreasing the forecastperiodasexisting firms sector isexpected toaccelerateduring cent, or4,500jobs. Job growth inthis at anaverage 4.9per annual rateof sectorpayrollsinformation increased 2013, andfrom2014through2016, sector hasbeenmostnotablesince 2010. Job growth intheinformation 0.3 percentayear from2009through 2008, beforedeclininganaverage of or 2,700jobs, from2004through average 3.6percent, annual rateof has anestimated34,000employees third largest employer in theHMA, Washington (UW),whichisthe both recessions. TheUniversity of and losseswere minimalduring jobgrowth fortheHMA, source of months. Thegovernment sectorisa 2.6 percent,duringtheprevious 12 5,300jobs, or with anincreaseof April 2017,to219,700jobs, compared percent, duringthe12monthsending 50 Total nonfarmpayroll jobs Service-providing sectors Goods-producing sectors Education &healthservices Professional &businessservices Financial activities Transportation &utilities Manufacturing Government Other services Leisure &hospitality Wholesale &retail trade Mining, logging,&construction Information - Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 6 Economic Conditions

Continued growth occurring atthestateand growth occurring the forecast period,withmostof jobs atamoderaterateduringthe sector isexpected tocontinue adding Medical Center. Thegovernment bytheUW the jobsaresupported of 5 years; approximately one-half nearly 10,000jobsduringthepast of in Washington, anincrease reflecting 79,331jobs estimates UWsupports $9.1 billionin2009.Thesamestudy lion duringfiscalyear 2014,upfrom economic impacttotaling$12.5bil UW MedicalCenter)hadastatewide (which includesthenationally ranked by theuniversity estimatesthatUW statewide. Arecentstudy conducted percent, annually, from 2005through 5,500 jobs,by anaverage or3.6 of manufacturing payrolls increased As economicgrowth rebounded, affected themanufacturing sector. the economy, thedot.combubble As withotherhigh-techsectorsof are inKingandSnohomishCounties. however, thesejobs avast majorityof level employment isunavailable; Boeing Companywebsite). County- month and8,400jobsinayear (The ington, down 1,575employees ina Wash 69,050 peopleinthestateof April,Boeingemployed the endof Washington. At sites outsideof gets shiftedtoothermanufacturing layoffs atBoeing, asproductionwork thesejoblossesaretheresultof of 12 monthsendingApril2016.Most 400jobs, or0.3percent,during the of or 3.0percent,comparedwithagain ending April2017,down 5,100jobs, job losses during the 12 months report Manufacturing was theonly sectorto local government levels. - - in theHMA.Additionally, notices ­machinists andengineersatlocations 1,800 voluntary layoffs fromitsunion In March2017,Boeingaccepted at best,duringtheforecastperiod. continue declining, orremainsteady manufacturing sectorisexpected to through 2015.Payroll growth inthe or 2.6percent,annually, from2011 4,100jobs,sector addedanaverage of through 2010.Themanufacturing jobs, or5.1percent,ayear, from2009 payrolls 8,400 fellbyanaverage of cluding airplanes, andmanufacturing a declineinthedemandforgoods, in growth, thenationalrecessionledto 2008. Subsequenttothiseconomic employment data. provides additional thisreport end of government sectors. Table DP-1atthe education andhealthservices, and wholesale andretailtrade, information, professional andbusinessservices, the forecastperiod,addingjobsin expected toleadjobgrowth during annually. High-techindustriesare 36,600jobs,average or2.2percent, of rolls areexpected toincreasebyan During thenext 3years, pay nonfarm skilled workers intoother roles. has beenabletoabsorbthesehighly as well asthediverse economy that program, with thevoluntary layoff mitigated bythebuyouts associated on theoverall economy was largely thesejoblosses negative impactof some cases, involuntary layoffs. The andin program, a voluntary layoff attrition, through acombinationof ther reduceitsworkforce during2017 429 inJune. Boeing hasplanstofur went outfor245layoffs inMay and - - - Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 7 Population andHouseholds estimates byanalyst Sources: 2000and 2010—2000Censusand2010Census; currentandforecast— Notes: Thecurrent dateisMay1,2017.Theforecast dateisMay1,2020. * Seattle-Bellevue-Everett HMA. Figure 4.

Average annual change 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 5,000 0

2000 toForecast Components ofPopulationChangeinthe 2000 to2010 Net naturalchange the State of Washington’s the Stateof Officeof (inter­ 15,550peopleayear increase of thegrowth, an mately of one-half accountedforapproxinet in-migration ­ people, annually, from2000to2002; aver­ growth intheHMA­ the increase(Figure4).Population a year, orapproximately 59percentof accountingfor24,350people migration 41,550 people, annually, withnetin-­ growth hasaveraged 1.5percent,or the April2010Census, population estimated atnearly 2.94 million. Since A housing marketconditions, increased rebounded. Duringthisperiod,strong cent, annually, aseconomicgrowth 38,450people,average or1.5per­­ of 2007, thepopulationincreasedbyan totalgrowth. From 2004to percent of people ayear, accounting foronly 24 4,700 felltoanaveragemigration of or 0.8percent,annually. Netin- 2004, growth averaged 19,850people, the bubbleburst,andfrom2002to Population growth slowed ayear after thedot.combubble. HMA becauseof strong labormarketconditionsinthe workers capitalizingonthe of influx growth duringthistimecamefroman the Financial Management). Muchof 2010 tocurrent age of 1.3percent,or30,800 age of censal populationestimatesfor tion of theSeattle HMAis tion of May 1,2017,thepopula­ of s Net migration Current toforecast Seattle HMA,* creased an -

tions weakened thelabormarketcaus­ economic andhousingmarketcondi­ growth slowed sharply, becausepoor seekers. From 2007to2012,population fromjob­ netin-migration furthered stronger labormarketconditionsand retail trade, expanded, whichledto business services, andwholesale healthcare services, professional and the HMA,suchaseducationand sectorsin As aresult,service-related population growth from2004to2007. total a year, comprising 56percentof creased 21,700 people toanaverage of in­ to theHMA.Netin-migration quality-of-life factorsattractedpeople employment opportunities, andother plier effect,causingafast expansion ago. Thisjobgrowth hashadamulti­ out thestate, upfrom26,500ayear an estimated40,000peoplethrough hiring atAmazon.com,which employs people eachyear, byrapid spurred that averagednet in-migration 42,300 growth duringthistimecamefrom the year. Morethan70percentof 2.1percent,or59,650people, per of ac­ population growth intheHMA Cities. From date, 2014tothecurrent America’s Fastest-Growing 2017 listof theHMA atop10spotonForbes’ earn exceeding 3.0percentannually, helped Job growth from2014through2016, totalgrowth. comprising 60percentof averaged 25,300peopleannually, 42,450 people, andnetin-migration average 1.6percent,or annual rateof theHMAincreasedatan tion of ated. From 2012to2014,thepopula recover, populationgrowth acceler increase. Aftertheeconomy beganto thepopulation only 22percentof 5,050 peopleayear, accountingfor a year. averaged Netin-migration averaged 0.9percent, or22,950people, todrop.ing netin-migration Growth celerated toanaverage annual rate - - -

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Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 8 Population andHouseholds

Continued This trendisanticipatedtocontinue, their willingnesstostay inthearea. for homeswithintheHMA,indicating localhomebuyers searched percent of the HMA.Conversely, morethan90 their topout-of-statedestinationwas approximately 15,100people, and of metropolitan areawithanetoutflow people, ledbytheSanFrancisco of tan areashadthelargest netoutflow found themostexpensive metropoli 2017, astudy releasedbyRedfin for itshigh-techworkforce. InApril metropolitan area,whichisrenowned especially fromtheSanFrancisco enticing jobseekerstotheHMA, companies, high-techstartup fur of House­ households, from2000to2010. 1.2percent, or12,200 increase of compared withanaverage annual or 16,600households, since2010, average 1.5 percent, annual increaseof an reside intheHMA,representing An estimated1.18millionhouseholds the increase. expected toaccountfor 65percentof people, ayear. is Netin-migration 1.6percent,or49,000 growth rateof anaverage2020, reflecting annual approximately 3.09millionbyMay 1, the HMA is forecast toreach ­lation of upward pressureonprices. Thepopu­ likely toremain tight,puttingfurther able land,thehousingmarketsare develop constraining theamountof and rents, andwiththegeography markets withquickly risinghome prices the HMAhave ledtotighthousing econ­ toclose.living starts Thestrong forecast periodasthegapincostof likely moderate duringthe3-year York CityandSanFrancisco, butwill larger metropolitanareaslikeNew in theHMAwhencomparedwith living due totherelatively low costof omy andpopulationgrowth in hold growth duringthistime ther ­ther - - -

annual rate of 2.3percent,orby annual rateof households increasedatanaverage holds, from2000to2010.Renter 1.1percent,or6,875house­ increase of compared withanaverage annual 1.0 percent,or6,600households, increased atanaverage annual rateof owner households the number of 2010. From date, 2010tothecurrent 61.1percentin ownership rateof homeowners, comparedwithahome­ or 691,500households, arecurrently households, estimated 58.8percentof caused householdstodouble-up. An market crisisandrecession,which thehousing growth, partiallyaresultof was slightly slower thanpopulation a year, duringtheforecastperiod, 1.7percent, or19,900households of to increaseatanaverage annual rate households intheHMAisexpected tion growth continues, thenumber of andpopula netin-migration levels of economy continues toencourage high (Zillow Groupestimates).Asthestrong to purchaseamedian-pricedhome have theincomeandcreditnecessary rentersin the HMA than 20percentof afamily. andstarting married More associated withit,suchasgetting and thelifestylesthataretypically adults arepostponinghomeownership, differences.demographic Manyyoung becauseof to preferrent,inpart, Great Recession, households continue the dramatically sincetheendof Although accesstocredithasimproved hold preferences toward renting. lending standardsandashiftinhouse­ sure crisis, includingstrictermortgage theforeclo the prolonged effectsof household growth since2010reflect andtheincreaseinrental formation The slowdown inowner household 5,325 households, from2000to2010. 1.4percent, or annual increaseof date,current comparedwithanaverage 10,650 households, from2010tothe - - - -

Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 9 Population andHouseholds Housing Market TrendsHousing Sources: 2000and2010—2000Census2010Census;current—estimates byanalyst Note: ThecurrentdateisMay1,2017. * Seattle-Bellevue-EverettHMA. Figure 5. estimates byanalyst Sources: 2000and2010—2000Census2010Census;currentforecast— Notes: ThecurrentdateisMay1,2017.forecast2020. * Seattle-Bellevue-EverettHMA. Figure 6. Average annual change 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 0 0

Population andHouseholdGrowth inthe 2000 toForecast 2000 toCurrent Number ofHouseholdsbyTenureinthe 2000 to2010 2000

Population Continued Renter of 9.3 months’ worth inJanuary 9.3months’ worth 2010. of homesforsalereachedapeak of tory By comparison,theavailable inven 1.3-month supply inApril2016(Redfin). was available forsale, down froma homes 2017, a0.9-monthsupply of April for-salehousing. Asof supply of increaseddemandandalimited reflects 2.6 percentinApril2010.Thedecline 1.2percent,comparedwith rate of with anoverall estimatedvacancy the SeattleHMAarecurrently tight, Sales housingmarketconditionsin Sales Market 2010 tocurrent 2010 Owner Households Seattle HMA,* Seattle HMA,* Current toforecast Current -

the current date.the current households bytenure from2000to and Figure6shows thenumber of trends from2000totheforecastdate, population andhouseholdgrowth holds byMay 1,2020.Figure5shows reaching nearly 1.24millionhouse economic conditions in2006,home the dot.combubble. Despitestrong as theeconomy expanded following sold annually from2003through2006, 59,850 existing homes an average of ments bytheanalyst). By comparison, 2007 (CoreLogic, Inc., withadjust is themostexisting homesalessince up 7percentfromayear ago, which ums (hereafter, existing homes) sold, homes, townhomes, andcondomini 2017, 53,400existing single-family During the12monthsendingApril - - - Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 10 Sales Market Market TrendsHousing Continued cent fromayear earlier, markingthe months endingApril2017,up8per sales pricewas $519,900 during the 12 in 2016.Theaverage existing home homes, peryear, to52,450homesales 15percent,or5,325 annual rateof home salesincreasedatanaverage existing through 2016,thevolume of in thehomesalesmarket.From 2012 and by2012,theeffectswere evident economic recovery beganin2011, a year from2009through2011.The and thenaveraged only 25,850sales home sales, or25percent,annually, 12,650 declined byanaverage of through 2008,existing homesales sales begantodecline, andfrom2006 of mortgages in theHMAwere mortgages seriously of 2012. DuringApril 2017,1.0percent the housingcrisisfrom2009through than theywere duringtheworst of the salesmarket of a lesssignificantpart owned have (REO)properties become or inforeclosure)loansandrealestate de­ con­ In responsetostrongeconomic 7percentfrom2012through 2016. of to increaseatanaverage annual rate in 2011,causingtheaverage salesprice conditions, whichbegan toimprove strongly witheconomic correlated price. Housingmarketconditionsare averageless thanthecurrent sales $363,100, approximately 30percent from 2008through2011,toalow of an average 5percent annual rateof to theaverage salespricedecliningat HMA duringtheGreatRecession led housing marketconditionsinthe sales price. Theweak economicand averagepercent lessthanthecurrent $449,900,approximately 13 a peakof 9 percentfrom2001through2007,to increased atanaverage annual rateof sales prices. Theaverage salesprice increasing fifth consecutive year of linquent (90ormoredays delinquent ditions intheHMA,seriously -

The condominiummarketinthe with adjustmentsbytheanalyst). regular resalehome(CoreLogic, Inc., a than theaverage salespriceof ending April2017,34percentless was $344,400duringthe12months average anREOhome salesprice of months endingApril 2017. The 12 existing homesalesduringthe of REO salescomprisedonly 2percent from 2009through2012;however, allexisting homessales percent of sales accountedformorethan17 in 2012(CoreLogic, Inc.). REOhome 6.5percent well below anAprilhighof from 1.5percentinApril2016,and delinquent orinREOstatus, down the mid-$400,000s to$3million. in 2016,andsales pricesranged from Insigniawas completed final tower of Seattle. The Hill neighborhoodof building with168unitsinthe Capitol buildings, andLuma,a24-story Amazon.com globalheadquarters tower, 698-unitproject,alsonearthe HMA includeInsignia,atwo- condominium developments inthe Recentlyconstruction. completed allmultifamily 2010, or6percentof 160unitsayear average in2009and of during thattime, butdeclinedtoan per­ accounting forapproximately 30 2008, units annually, from2005through averagedium construction 2,700 Condomin­ Multiple ListingService). with $654,500inMay 2016(Northwest 2017, upalmost25percentcompared condominium was $827,500inMay anew where theaverage salespriceof in theHMAoccursKingCounty, (Redfin). Mostcondominiumactivity a 14.3-monthsupply inJuly 2010 1.1-month supply ayear earlierand April2017;down froma sale asof inventory for 0.7-month supply of HMA isvery tight,withanestimated cent of all multifamily construction allmultifamily construction cent of Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 11 Sales Market Market TrendsHousing Continued estimated 220condominiumunits allmultifamily An construction. of Recession, comprisingalmost8percent conditions recovered fromtheGreat as economicandhousingmarket annually, from2011through2016, 850 condominiumswere constructed, Realty). International Anaverage of higher thanpresaleprices(Sotheby’s dominiums is, on average, 18percent thesenewly con­ constructed Resale of condominium available intheHMA. the mostrecentnew con­ Insignia soldinMarch2017,itmarked to $1.6million.Whenthefinalunitat inthemid-$300,000sup prices started Luma openedinlate2016,andsales it was intendedforapartments, buta began, in 2019.When construction ums totheinventory whencompleted town Seattle, willadd266condomini close toPikePlaceMarketin down high-rise, 40-story underconstruction penthouse.for atop-floor Another for studiounitsupto$4.9million prices range fromthehigh$500,000s unitsarepresold. Sales 80 percentof to openinmid-2019,andcurrently, buildings indowntown Seattle, isslated Amazon.com, globalheadquarters rise development closetothenew NEXUS, high- a347-unit,41-story range from$502,000to$1.05million. foot, two-bedroom units, andprices 500-­ ber 2017.Unitsrange insizefrom mid-October 2017throughNovem­ for sold, andcompletionisscheduled Field indowntown Seattle, is60per­­ development adjacenttoCenturyLink County. GridironCondos, a107-unit andallareinKing construction, only afew projectsarecurrently under ket forcondominiumsintheHMA, Despite anextremely tightsalesmar­ 2017. ning of have sincethebegin beenpermitted square-foot studiosto1,050-square- struction struction cent cent - - - ­ plans forafour-tower development in tion, aChinesedeveloper announced units (pricesareunavailable). Inaddi with one-,two-, andthree-bedroom year ona21-story, 143-unittower Bellevue early willbreakground next available). One88Condominiumsin areun studios (pricesandfloorplans square feet,and80percentwillbe Units willrange between 390and900 pated tobemove-in ready in2019. nearUWandisantici construction A 244-unitproject,UPlace, isunder areunavailable).(prices andfloorplans since beforethehousingmarketcrash with condominiums, atrendnotseen new owner decidedtomove forward sales, or21percent,annually, toalow 1,950home 2011 byanaverage of Sales declinedfrom2007through buildup tothehousingmarket crash. from 2004through2007,during the home salesaveraged 12,675annually adjustments bytheanalyst). New ous 12months(CoreLogic, Inc., with new homessoldduringtheprevi of 2017, up6percentfromthevolume during the12monthsendingApril ums (hereafter, new homes)sold homes, townhomes, andcondomini Approximately 6,325 new single-family 2,000 employees. office tower withroomformorethan block away fromanew Amazon.com Bellevue, andthesiteisone city of the of square footage inthehistory be thebiggest singledevelopment by date scheduledfor2019.EL­ in mid-to-late2017withacompletion expects condominiumpresalestostart and anofficetower. Thedeveloper ahigh-rise, four-starhotel consist of second high-rise;andPhaseIIwill one tower inthe and435apartments will include355condominiumsin two phases:PhaseI will consistof downtown Bellevue, ELEV8,which EV8 will - - - - - Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 12 Sources: U.S.Census Bureau,BuildingPermitsSurvey; estimatesbyanalyst Notes: Includestownhomes. Currentincludesdata through April 2017. * Seattle-Bellevue-Everett HMA. Figure 7. 10,000 12,000 14,000 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 Sales Market Market TrendsHousing 0

2000 Single-Family HomesPermittedinthe to Current

2001

2002 Continued

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007 declined an average of 5percenta declined anaverage of 2001 through2008,andsubsequently, average 7percentfrom annual rateof in 2009.Salespricesincreasedatan during thehousingboomrecorded 50 percenthigherthanthepeakprice ing April2017,whichismorethan $704,200 duringthe12monthsend new homeincreased11percentto a year. a Theaverage salespriceof 5,875new homessold an average of sold, andfrom2013through2016, 35 percentin2012to5,675homes salesincreased growth returned; new homesstrengthenedaseconomic the GreatRecession. Thedemandfor 4,200new homesales, aresultof of 2008 2017, 6,650single-family homeswere During the12monthsendingApril family (Figure7). homespermitted single- as measuredbythenumber of by increasingnew homeconstruction, to theimprovement inthesalesmarket Beginning in2012,buildersresponded the housingmarketcrisis. pricegrowth experienced before of therate 12percent,surpassing rate of price increasedatanaverage annual 2012 through2016,theaverage sales the demandfornew homes, andfrom nomic conditionsledtoanincreasein price beganincreasingasstrongeco $393,300.Theaveragelow sales of year from2009through2011,toa

2009

2010

2011 Seattle HMA,* 2012

2013

2014

2015

2016 2000

2017 - - slowly from2010through2011after increased Construction permitted. 26percent,or2,250homes rate of mitting declinedatanaverage annual 2006 through2009,single-family per From by scalingbackconstruction. began toslow, andbuildersresponded growth inhomepricesandsales of itwas alsowhentherate struction, con thepeakyears of was of part annually.permitted, Although2006 11,600homeswereand anaverage of and populationgrowth were robust, through 2006,whenbotheconomic was highestfrom2003 construction data).New home ago (preliminary up3percentfromayearpermitted, first-time homebuyers, butbecause build moremodest homestargeting developers recognizetheneedto according tolocaldevelopers. Some tolargerlooking toupgrade homes, is second-andthird-timehomebuyers market fornew single-family homes the HMA.Themostcommontarget currently takingplacein construction apartment and recordlevels of the tightmarketforcondominiums for bysingle-family homes, hence forcing higherdensitythanallowed thecityisbuiltout, because mostof is limitedtosmall-scaleprojects, Seattle withinthecityof construction buildableland.Also, new home of Washington limitingtheamount with thePuget SoundandLake constraintsontheHMA geographical appreciation canbeexplained bythe increased demandandsalesprice per thereasonsingle-family of Part year from2012through2016. averagingflat, 6,275new homesa hasremainedrelativelyconstruction 12percentsince2012,new home of 2009. Despiteannual pricegrowth in 3,800homespermitted a low of ­mitting hasnotrespondedtothe - - Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 13 Sales Market Market TrendsHousing Sources: 2000and2010—2000Census 2010Census;current—estimates byanalyst Note: Thecurrent dateisMay1,2017. * Seattle-Bellevue-Everett HMA. Figure 8. Table 4. Source: Estimatesbyanalyst forecast demand.TheperiodisMay1,2017,to2020. estimated 28,000othervacantunitsintheHMA willlikely satisfysomeofthe Notes: The3,250homescurrentlyunderconstructionandaportionofthe * Seattle-Bellevue-EverettHMA. 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 From

Estimated DemandforNewMarket-RateSalesHousing in theSeattleHMA*

Current Rental Vacancy Ratesinthe Continued Price Range($) 2000 4.4 and higher 799,999 699,999 599,999 499,999 399,999 To During theForecast Period of 4.0percent,down from 7.1percent of with anoverall estimatedvacancy rate the SeattleHMAarecurrently tight, Rental housingmarketconditionsin Rental Market tion in the city of Redmond expected tion inthecityof community currently underconstruc a Bellevue-based developer, hasa theHMA.QuadrantHomes, of part million forthelargest homesinthis homes andincreasetomorethan$1 inthelowstart $600,000sforsmaller theHMA.Salesprices east sideof and Googlecampusesonthecentral- buildingneartheMicrosoft tion of withahighconcentra construction, profit. Several communities areunder significantly moredifficulttomakea highlandcosts, itwould be of 2010 7.1 Demand Seattle HMA,* Units of 8,375 3,350 5,700 6,700 6,375 3,025 2000to Percent of Total 25.0 10.0 17.0 20.0 19.0 Current 9.0 4.0 - - be strongest inthesecond andthird (Table 1).Demandisestimatedto is expected for33,500new homes During thenext 3years, demand stats andmotion-detectingdoorbells. lightingandthermo programmable technology, andsmart floor suchas include amasterbedroomonthemain increasingly commoninnew homes $700,000s. Somefeaturesthatare from thelow $400,000stotheupper theHMAarepricedlower,of ranging portions andnorthern the southern million. Homesincommunities in $1.1 feet, withanaverage listpriceof in sizefrom2,560to4,000square to openinJuly 2017.Homesvary how 2016; of during thefirst quarter 2017,down from5.3percent ter of was 4.8percentduringthefirstquar vacancyHMA apartment rateinthe 3,025units.average The estimated of 33,350 unitswere added,anannual ­comparison, from2000through2010, 7,000unitsayear.an average By of 20,900 unitsfrom2013through2016, market istightaswell, despiteadding demand since2010.Theapartment ship, have contributedtorisingrental as householdspostponehomeowner changescoupled withdemographic reasonably priced for-salehousing, andlowin-migration inventory of in April2010(Figure8).Strongnet $400,000 and$799,999(Table 4). strongest forhomespricedbetween for new homesisanticipatedtobe theforecast demand.Demand of part back onthemarketwilllikely satisfy other vacant homesthatmay come the28,000 of andaportion struction The 3,250 homescurrently under con the3-year forecast period. years of ­ever, theaverage rentincreased -

-

- -

Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 14 Sources: U.S.Census Bureau,BuildingPermitsSurvey; estimatesbyanalyst Notes: Excludes townhomes. Currentincludesdata through April 2017. * Seattle-Bellevue-Everett HMA. Figure 9. 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 Rental Market Market TrendsHousing 0

2000 Multifamily UnitsPermittedinthe Current

2001

2002 Continued

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007 HMA were $1,305,$1,492,$1,736, 2017, average monthly rentsinthe of 5 percent.Duringthefirstquarter the vacancy ratehasaveraged lessthan market hastightened,andsince2010, 5 percent.Since2009,theapartment which causedtheaverage renttodecline theweak economy,was low becauseof market was softandnetin-migration peaked at7.4percentin2009,whenthe vacancyapartment rateintheHMA theRocky Mountains. The west of West Region, whichincludesallstates 5 percentfortheReis, Inc.-defined increased 4percentforthenationand ing thesameperiod,average rent 7 percentto$1,606(Reis, Inc.). Dur 2008 ­ apart areas intheHMA,lowest the16Reis, Inc.-defined market Of unitsstillinleaseup. of large portion ment market,becausetheyincludea vacancy ratethantheoverall apart haveA apartments aslightly higher from 7.2percentayear earlier. Class with a6.2-percentvacancy rate, down 2017, of $1,913, duringthefirstquarter units, increasedalmost7percent,to encompass mostnewly constructed rent forClassAapartments, which units, respectively. Theaverage asking two-bedroom, andthree-bedroom and $1,915forstudio, one-bedroom,

2009 ment vacancy ratesinthefirst

2010 Seattle HMA,*

2011

2012

2013

2014 2000 to 2000to

2015

2016

2017 - -

in apartment construction inthe construction in apartment vacancy rateisattributabletoasurge market areas. Therelatively high the highestaverage rentamongall rent increased5.0percentto$2,178, a year earlier;however, theaverage at 7.5percent,down from9.2percent the highestvacancy rateinthe HMA Queen Annemarketarearecorded prior. TheDowntown/Capitol Hill/ area, down from1.8percentayear in theAuburn/Enumclaw market 2017,and1.6percent of first quarter up 0.1percentage points fromthe the Tukwila/Sea-Tac marketarea, theHMA:1.3percentin of portion 2017were inthesouthern of quarter conditions began todeteriorate, but when rentaland saleshousingmarket 11,100ayear in2006and2007,as of family increased to an average permits multi­ through 2005.Thenumber of were annually permitted from2000 6,925multifamilyan average units of data). Bycomparison, (preliminary the 12monthsendingApril2016 multifamily during unitspermitted 26-percent increasefromthe12,450 multifamily unitswere a permitted, ing April2017,approximately 15,650 (Figure 9).During the 12 months end and 2016 is unparalleledfortheHMA multifamily in2015 construction of the pastseveral years, andthelevel multifamily during unitspermitted, of asmeasuredbythenumber struction, Builders increasedmultifamily con­ Seattle/Burien marketareato$1,522. a 12.7-percentincreaseintheWest Redmond marketareato$1,850and from a3.9-percentincreaseinthe in every marketareaintheHMA, The average monthly rentincreased which arestillinthelease-upstage. of 2013 through2016,aportion theunitsaddedtoHMAfrom of market areathatcaptured55percent - Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 15 Rental Market Market TrendsHousing Continued conditions totighten.Aslenders market demand, causedapartment ments, whichcoupledwithincreased new apart in avery limitedsupply of financingresulted crisis. Thislackof units broughtonbytheforeclosure despite anincreaseddemandforrental tion was particularly hardtoobtain, this time, financingfornew construc multifamily During unitspermitted. 3,960 2008 through2010,toalow of morethan30percentfrom rate of tion todeclineatanaverage annual collapse causedmultifamily construc and thesubsequenthousingmarket therecession conditions. Theonsetof before buildersreactedtothechanging apartments isarelativelyapartments new and theHMA. Buildingluxury the restof isdistributed throughout construction the units under the remainderof marketarea;and Seattle/Northgate HMA; 13percentareintheNorth the of area inthecentral-eastportion are intheBellevue/Issaquah market campuses. Approximately 16percent hoods encompassingAmazon.com area, whichincludestheneighbor Capitol Hill/QueenAnnemarket mately 40percentareintheDowntown/ intheHMA,approxiconstruction ­ theestimated20,800units under Of in2016. permitted followed by14,700multifamily units increased 33percentto15,700units, HMA until2015,whenpermitting forthe new construction amount of 2014, whichwas anunprecedented 11,500 units a year from2012 through averagedMultifamily construction in2010. unitspermitted the number of in 2011,a70-percentincreasefrom 6,750 multifamily were permits issued construction; increasing apartment and buildersrespondedbysignificantly economic recovery, financingreturned, became increasingly confidentinthe - - - - June 2017.Alsoacrossthestreet from 77 percentleasedbythemiddleof at$4,050.Tower12rent starts was between 1,150to1,825squarefeet, per month,andfortwo-bedroom units at$2,730 and 965squarefeetstart 575 Rent for one-bedroomunitsbetween thePuget Sound. which have views of opened inMay 2017,60percentof headquarters, has314unitsthat world miles fromthenew Amazon.com high-rise0.5 apartment a 34-story close towork. Tower12 Apartments, com employees whowant tolive increaseddemandfromAmazon. of town Seattle, because inlarge part, increasingly populartrendindown forecast period byrentandunittype. market-rate rental unitsduringthe displays theestimated demandfornew theforecastperiod.Table 5 years of demand duringthefirstandsecond theexpected of satisfy alarge portion willlikelyrently underconstruction more balanced.The20,800unitscur in thethirdyear asthemarketbecome 3-year forecastperiodand­ the in thefirstandsecondyears of Demand isexpected tobestrongest rental unitsintheHMA(Table 1). estimated for32,750new market-rate During thenext 3years, demandis units whencompletein2018. which willbe40storiestallwith450 complete in2017;and22028thAve, andshouldbe contain 356apartments Kinects, tower a40-story thatwill Way, tower a40-story with468units; Amazon.com, including970Denny indowntownconstruction Seattlenear buildingsarecurrently under apartment Several additionalhigh-riseluxury in late2017(rentsarenotavailable). retailspacescheduledforoccupancy of units andmorethan7,750squarefeet high-rise including396apartment Amazon.com willbeStratus, a41-story moderate - - Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 16 Data Profile Table 5. Source: Estimatesbyanalyst May 1,2020. units currentlyunderconstructionwilllikelysatisfysomeoftheestimateddemand.TheforecastperiodisMay1,2017,to Notes: Numbersmaynotaddtototalsbecauseofrounding.Monthlyrentdoesincludeutilitiesorconcessions.The20,800 * Seattle-Bellevue-EverettHMA. Rental Market Market TrendsHousing Total 2,000 ormore 1,800 to1,999 1,600 to1,799 1,400 to1,599 1,200 to1,399 1,000 to1,199 Monthly Gross Sources: U.S.CensusBureau;DepartmentofHousingandUrban Development;estimatesbyanalyst 2017. and the12monthsthrough April 2017.MedianFamilyIncomes arefor1999,2009,and2015.ThecurrentdateisMay1, Notes: Numbersmaynotaddtototalsbecauseofrounding.Employment datarepresentannualaveragesfor2000,2010, * Seattle-Bellevue-EverettHMA. Table DP-1. Rent ($) Rental vacancyrate Owner vacancyrate Total housingunits Percent renter Renter households Percent owner Owner households Total households Total population Nonfarm payroll jobs Unemployment rate Total resident employment Median FamilyIncome Zero Bedrooms

Estimated DemandforNewMarket-RateRentalHousingintheSeattleHMA* Forecast Period Continued

Seattle HMA* Demand Units of 3,925 1,575 240 980 590 280 280 Total 2,600 ormore 2,400 to2,599 2,200 to2,399 2,000 to2,199 1,800 to1,999 1,600 to1,799 Monthly Gross DataProfile, 2000toCurrent Rent ($) One Bedroom 2,343,058 1,417,100 1,262,303 $64,600 978,442 357,950 577,818 935,768 2000 38.3% 61.7% 4.4% 1.3% 3.8%

13,100 Demand Units of 1,975 3,925 3,925 1,975 660 660 1,351,393 1,137,920 1,057,557 2,644,584 1,396,200 $84,300 411,080 646,477 2010 38.9% 61.1% 7.1% 2.6% 9.4% Total 3,000 ormore 2,800 to2,999 2,600 to2,799 2,400 to2,599 2,200 to2,399 2,000 to2,199 Monthly Gross Rent ($) Two Bedrooms 1,232,000 1,175,300 2,939,000 1,662,000 1,573,000 Current $89,600 483,800 691,500 41.2% 58.8% 4.0% 1.2% 3.7%

Demand 11,800 Units of 2,350 3,550 3,550 1,175 590 590 2000 to2010 Average AnnualChange(%) – 0.1 2.7 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.7 Three orMore Bedrooms Total 3,300 ormore 3,100 to3,299 2,900 to3,099 2,700 to2,899 2,500 to2,699 2,300 to2,499 Monthly Gross Rent ($) During the 2010 toCurrent

1.0 1.1 2.3 1.0 1.5 1.5 2.8 2.4 Demand Units of 3,925 1,575 790 710 310 280 280 Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 17 not reflected intheresidential buildingpermits.not reflected As are some unitsclassifiedascommercialstructures For buildingpermit. example, a differenttypeof orareissued or createdwithoutabuildingpermit occurs inanHMA.Someunitsareconstructed sarily allresidentialbuildingactivity that reflect Building Permits: donotneces­ Buildingpermits vacant bytheCensusBureau. specifiedas“other” workers; andthecategory recreational, oroccasionaluse;usedbymigrant or soldbutnotoccupied;heldforseasonal, thereforeincludesunitsrented for rent.Theterm all vacant unitsthatarenotavailable forsaleor Development (HUD),othervacant unitsinclude by theU.S. HousingandUrban of Department Other Vacant Units:Inthisanalysis conducted development pipeline. orunitsinthe units currently underconstruction excess vacancies. Theestimatesdonotaccountfor theanalysis, growth, losses, and dateof the as-of the3-year forecastperiodgiven conditionson of needed toachieve abalancedmarketattheend thetotalhousingproduction the estimatesof buildingactivity.are notaforecastof Theyare Demand: Thedemandestimatesintheanalysis 28,2013. OMB BulletindatedFebruary Management andBudget (OMB)inthe Office of is basedonthedelineationsestablishedby The metropolitandivision definitioninthisreport Forecast period:5/1/2017–5/1/2020—Estimates date:5/1/2017—EstimatesbytheanalystCurrent 2010: 4/1/2010—U.S. Decennial Census 2000: 4/1/2000—U.S. Decennial Census Data DefinitionsandSources by theanalyst huduser.gov/portal/ushmc/chma_archive.html For onothermarketareas, additionalreports please goto Holi Weaver, Economist Contact Information CMARtables_Seattle_Bellevue_EverettWA_17.pdf for thisHMA,goto For tothehousingmarket additionaldatapertaining family andmultifamily buildingpermits. single- these estimatesareincludedinthediscussionsof activity. thisadditionalconstruction Someof estimate of a result,theanalyst, throughdiligent fieldwork, makesan on localeconomicandhousingmarketconditions. government officialswhoprovided dataandinformation sourcesandstatelocal appreciation tothoseindustry modified bysubsequentdevelopments. HUDexpresses its national sources. Assuch,findingsorconclusionsmay be datefromlocaland availableinformation ontheas-of aspossiblebased on findings areasthoroughandcurrent Market Analysis Division within HUD. Theanalysis and guidelines andmethodsdeveloped bytheEconomicand The factualframework forthisanalysis follows the may beunderconsiderationbytheDepartment. insuranceproposalsthat anymortgage of acceptability regardingthe tomakedeterminations does notpurport housing marketconditionsandtrends. Theanalysis builders, mortgagees, withlocal andothersconcerned tion, findings, andconclusionsmay alsobeusefulto HUDinitsoperations. Thefactualinforma guidance of This analysis fortheassistanceand hasbeen prepared [email protected] 206–220–5291 Seattle HUDRegional Office huduser.gov/publications/pdf/ .

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