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Demonstration of Energy Demand Forecast in Kaliningrad Region The European Union’s Tacis Programme for the Russian Federation EuropeAid/120746/C/SV/RU Delegation of the European Commission to Russia Energy Efficiency at Regional Level in Arkhangelsk, Astrakhan and Kaliningrad Regions Demonstration of Energy Demand Forecast in Kaliningrad Region Draft Report September 2007 This project is funded by the This project is implemented by the European Union COWI consortium Delegation of the European Commission to Russia EuropeAid/120746/C/SV/RU Energy Efficiency at Regional Level in Arkhangelsk, Astrakhan and Kaliningrad Regions Demonstration of Energy Demand Forecast in Kaliningrad Region Draft-Report September 2007 Published September 2007 Copyright © 2007 by EuropeAid, European Commission Enquiries concerning reproduction should be sent to the Tacis Information Office, European Commission, 170 Rue de la Loi, B-1049 Brussels This report has been prepared by the COWI-CENEf-ICCS/NTUA-Mott MacDonald-SWECO Consortium. The findings, conclusions and interpretations expressed in this document are those of the Consortium alone and should in no way be taken to reflect the policies or opinions of the European Commission. Draft Kaliningrad Oblast Energy Demand Forecast LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS bos basic oxygen steel bbl barrel bcm billion cubic metres b/d barrels per day Btu British thermal unit CCGT combined-cycle gas turbine CHP combined heat and power (plant) CNG compressed natural gas CO carbon monoxide CO2 carbon dioxide COG coke-oven gas CV calorific value GCV gross calorifc value GHG greenhouse gas GJ gigajoule, or one joule x 109 (see joule) GJ/t gigajoule per tonne J joule kWh killowatt/hour, or one watt x one hour x 103 LNG liquefied natural gas LPG liquefied petroleum gas; refers to propane, butane and their isomers, which are gases at atmospheric pressure and normal temperature MBtu million British termal units MJ/m3 megajoule/cubic metre Mm3 million cubic metres MPP main (public) power producer MSW municipal solid waste Mtce million tonnes of coal equivalent Mtoe million tonnes of oil equivalent MW megawatt, or one watt x 106 NCV net calorific value Nm3 normal cubic metre NOx nitrogen oxides PV Photovoltaic Ttce Thousand tonnes of coal equivalent tce tonne of coal equivalent; 1 tce = 0.7 toe TFC total final consumption (“end-use” or “useful” consumption) TJ Tera joule, or one joule x 1012 toe tonne of oil equivalent TPES total primary energy supply VOCs volatile organic compounds COWI-CENEf-ICCS/NTUA-Mott MacDonald-SWECO Consortium 4 Draft Kaliningrad Oblast Energy Demand Forecast TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary...................................................................................................................... 7 1. Introduction.......................................................................................................................... 11 1.1 Approach..................................................................................................................... 11 1.2 Organisation of the report ........................................................................................... 12 2 General economic and energy background......................................................................... 13 2.1 Regional economic situation ....................................................................................... 13 2.2 Energy consumption patterns ..................................................................................... 14 2.3 Energy resources........................................................................................................ 15 2.4 Energy sector organization ......................................................................................... 17 2.5 Energy sector development ........................................................................................ 19 3 Analysis of the regional socio-economic development program, 2007-2016 ...................... 23 3.1 The program’s socio-economic development concept................................................ 23 3.2 The program’s development scenarios....................................................................... 23 3.3 The inconsistencies in the program’s development scenarios.................................... 24 3.3.1 Unsustainability of financial resources.................................................................... 24 3.3.2 Growth of industrial otput and oil extraction volume ............................................... 24 3.3.3 Cargo turnover and GRP growth............................................................................. 24 3.3.4 Residential income growth and retail trade............................................................. 24 3.3.5 Major limitations to growth: labor shortage and available housing.......................... 25 4 Development scenarios for Kaliningrad Oblast ................................................................... 26 4.1 The “Baltic dragon” scenario....................................................................................... 26 4.1.1 The concept ........................................................................................................... 26 4.1.2 Scenario conditions................................................................................................ 27 4.1.3 Energy sector development under the “Baltic dragon” scenario ............................ 29 4.1.4 Practical feasibility of the “Baltic dragon” scenario................................................. 39 4.2 The “Balanced migration” scenario ............................................................................. 41 4.2.1 The concept ........................................................................................................... 41 4.2.2 Scenario conditions................................................................................................ 42 4.2.3 Energy development under the “Balanced migration” scenario ............................. 42 4.2.4 Practical feasibility of the “Balanced migration” scenario....................................... 48 4.3 The “Sustainable development” scenario ................................................................... 49 4.3.1 The concept ........................................................................................................... 49 4.3.2 Scenario conditions................................................................................................ 49 4.3.3 Energy development under the “Sustainable development” scenario.................... 49 4.3.4 Practical feasibility of the “Sustainable development” scenario ............................. 56 5 Conclusions and Recommendations................................................................................... 57 Annexes...................................................................................................................................... 59 Annex 1 Heat production facilities in Kaliningrad region ................................................... 60 Annex 2 Energy efficiency options .................................................................................... 62 Annex 3 Input data tables for “Baltic Dragon” scenario..................................................... 76 Annex 4 Input data tables for “Balanced Migration” scenario............................................ 82 Annex 5 Input data tables for the “Sustainable Development” scenario ........................... 85 COWI-CENEf-ICCS/NTUA-Mott MacDonald-SWECO Consortium 5 Draft Kaliningrad Oblast Energy Demand Forecast LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1 Overall energy balance for 2005, Kaliningrad region - Ttce ....................................... 14 Table 2.2 Integrated Fuel and Energy Balance: Energy end-use in 2005 (Ttce)........................ 14 Table 2.3 Boiler Stations in largest municipalities supplied with DH .......................................... 19 Table 4.1 IFEB in 2020 under the «Baltic dragon» scenario (Ttce)............................................ 31 Table 4.2 Integrated Fuel and Energy Balance - Energy end-use by sector (Ttce).................... 32 Table 4.3 Electricity balance by the «Baltic dragon» scenario (mln. kWh) ................................. 35 Table.4.4IFEB of Kaliningrad Oblast in 2020 under the «Balanced migration» scenario (Ttce)..... ............................................................................................................................ 43 Table.4.5 Integrated Fuel and Energy Balance - Energy end-use by sector (Ttce).................... 44 Table 4.6 Electricity balance under the «Balanced migration» scenario (mln. kWh).................. 46 Table 4.7 IFEB in 2020 under the «Sustainable development» scenario (Ttce) ........................ 51 Table 4.9 Electricity balance by the «Sustainable development» scenario (mln. kWh).............. 54 Fig. 4.2 Primary energy consumption under the “Baltic dragon” scenario (construction of the second unit of KTETs-2)............................................................................................................. 29 Fig.4.5 Heat consumption and production under the “Baltic dragon” scenario........................... 36 Fig.4.6 Natural gas consumption dynamics by the “Baltic dragon” scenario .............................. 37 Fig.4.7 Liquid fuel consumption dynamics by the “Baltic dragon” scenario ................................ 38 Fig.4.8 Coal consumption and the IFEB basic coal indicators under the “Baltic dragon” scenario ...................................................................................................................................
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