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Ncsoft (036570) Korea – Equity Research NCsoft (036570) Korea – Equity Research Popularity and sales rankings exceed expectations Internet Buy Over 100k of gamers estimated to have participated in close-beta testing in 2 Sep 2009 US and Europe Bloomberg: 036570 KS When Aion was first mentioned in US and Europe, expectations were rather low. Target Price (12M, W): 280,000 Professional game critics in US and Europe were harsh on AionÊs graphics and content, Share Price (09/01/09, W): 143,000 considering ① there has not been a successful MMORPG after World of Warcraft Expected Return (%): 95.8 (WoW), and ② no MMORPG produced in Asia has ever been a blockbuster success in Sector: Internet Software and Services US and Europe due to the cultural gap. As such, game critics have been skeptical about Sector Rating: Overweight the success of Aion in US and Europe. EPS Growth (09F, %): 636.9 Market EPS Growth (09F, %): 54.5 However, Aion maintains its top ranking in popularity and sales charts. We estimate that P/E (X): 14.5 over 100k gamers, who made full advance payment, took part in close-beta testing by Market P/E (09/01/09F, X): 14.6 Aug. 17. While it remains premature to determine the gameÊs future success, we are Market Cap (Wbn): 3,101 impressed by AionÊs better-than-expected ranking on popularity and sales charts in US. Shares Outstanding (mn): 22 Figure 1. The article of PC game sales chart in KOTAKU Avg Trading Volume (60D, '000): 579 Avg Trading Value (60D, Wbn): 83 Margin Balance ('000 sh): 457 Dividend Yield (09F, %): .7 Free Float (%): 64.0 52-Week Low/High: 24,400/193,000 Beta (12M, Daily Rate of Return): 0.8 Price Return Volatility (12M Daily, %,SD): 4.4 Foreign Ownership (%): 17.4 Major Shareholder(s): T. J. Kim et al. (26.54%) Mirae Asset Mgt. et al (14.38%) Treasury stock (9.41%) Price Performance (%) 1M 6M 12M Absolute 7.5 102.5 180.4 Relative 3.3 49.9 165.6 Source: kotaku.com FY Sales OP OP Margin NP EPS EBITDAFCF ROE P/E P/B EV/EBITDA Share price (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (Wbn) (W) (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (x) (x) (x) 420 KOSPI 12/07 223 47 21.1 45 2,205 56 19 10.4 22.2 2.3 13.3 320 12/08 240 46 19.0 27 1,334 57 10 6.4 39.4 2.6 15.6 220 12/09F 473 235 49.7 201 9,831 252 179 39.5 14.5 4.9 10.9 120 12/10F 571 313 54.9 297 14,526 333 230 40.0 9.8 3.3 7.5 20 12/11F 677 397 58.7 403 19,673 419 302 37.5 7.3 2.3 5.1 8/08 12/08 4/09 8/09 Source: Company data, Daewoo Securities Research estimates Chang Kwean Kim +822-768-4321 [email protected] Jee-Hyun Moon +822-768-3615 [email protected] Please carefully read important notices in the last pages of this report. NCsoft Figure 2. Weekly unique hits for Aion at MMORPG.com Figure 3. Monthly unique hits for Aion at MMORPG.com ('000) ('000) 200 weekly 800 monthly 150 600 100 400 50 200 0 0 Aug 14 Aug 21 Aug 28 Sep 4 Sep 11 Sep 18 Aug 14 Aug 21 Aug 28 Sep 4 Sep 11 Sep 18 Source: mmorpg.com, Daewoo Securities Research Source: mmorpg.com, Daewoo Securities Research Figure 4. Semi-annual unique hits for Aion at MMORPG.com Figure 5. Annual unique hits for Aion at MMORPG.com ('000) ('000) 2,000 semi-annually 3,000 annually 1,500 2,250 1,000 1,500 500 750 0 0 Aug 14 Aug 21 Aug 28 Sep 4 Sep 11 Sep 18 Aug 14 Aug 21 Aug 28 Sep 4 Sep 11 Sep 18 Source: mmorpg.com, Daewoo Securities Research Source: mmorpg.com, Daewoo Securities Research Table 1. Top 10 unique hits at MMORPG.com (unique hits) Rank In a week In a month In 6 months In a year 1 Aion 110,921 Aion 417,820 Aion 1,360,348 Warhammer Online 2,526,150 2 Champions Online 51,371 World of Warcraft 176,746 Warhammer Online 804,420 Aion 1,937,235 3 World of Warcraft 31,031 Champions Online 138,332 Star Wars: The Old Republic 690,411 Darkfall 1,630,930 4 Darkfall 31,605 Warhammer Online 114,909 Darkfall 646,572 World of Warcraft 1,274,454 5 Star Wars: The Old Republic 30,637 Star Wars: The Old Republic 109,348 World of Warcraft 643,103 Age of Conan 1,248,118 6 Warhammer Online 29,608 Darkfall 103,897 Age of Conan 612,169 Lord of the Rings Online 1,194,566 7 Age of Conan 24,604 EVE Online 97,527 Atlantica Online 540,914 Atlantica Online 1,108,628 8 EVE Online 23,967 Atlantica Online 94,153 Lord of the Rings Online 528,489 EVE Online 1,014,697 9 Atlantica Online 23,003 Age of Conan 89,550 EVE Online 525,080 Star Wars: The Old Republic 993,982 10 Earth Eternal 20,513 City of Heroes 88,207 The Chronicles of Spellborn 451,830 The Chronicles of Spellborn 915,111 Note: Based on September 1, 2009, the ranking is calculated by the popularity, number of unique hit, the characteristic of site is in Table 6. Source: mmorpg.com, Daewoo Securities Research 2 NCsoft Figure 6. Aion weekly ranking Jun 14 Jul 5 Jul 26 Aug 16 Sep 6 Sep 27 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Steam Direct2Drive 15 (rank) Note: based on revenue, the characteristic of each site is in Table 6. Source Steam, Direct2Drive, Daewoo Securities Research Table 2. Aion CollectorÊs Edition and Standard Edition Aion Collector's Edition Aion Standard Edition Price $59.99 ($69.99 as a box in offline-store) $49.99 Package includes a 30-day subscription (37 days if purchased online) Aion Collector's Edition Bonus Items: Sprint Ring, Stat-Boosting Hat, and XP Tailsman (available when game goes live): Contents Black Cloud Earring (gives an HP and MP boost) Package includes a 30-day subscription Special character title ("Pioneer of Aion") with stat boost Color dye to tint one in-game item Two character emotes (Disco and Samba Emotes) Source: Company Data, Daewoo Securities Research Table 3. Top 10 weekly sales of PC games Steam Direct2Drive 1. Left 4 Dead / Valve 1. Champions Online (pre-order) / Cryptic 2. Aion Collector's Edition (pre-order) / NCsoft 2. Fallen Earth (pre-order) / Fallen Earth, Icarus Studios 3. Counter-Strike: Source / Valve 3. Aion Collector's Edition (pre-order) / NCsoft 4. Killing Floor / Tripwire 4. Rise of Flight / neoqb 5. Team Fortress 2 / Valve 5. Civilization 4: The Complete Edition / Firaxis 6. Fallout Collection (F1, F2, Fallout Tactics) 6. The Sims 3 / The Sims Studio 7. The Orange Box / Valve 7. Fallout 3 / Bethesda Softworks 8. Hearts Of Iron III / Paradox Interactive 8. Hearts of Iron III with Sprite Packs Bundle / Paradox Interactive 9. Valve Complete Pack / Valve 9. Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare / Infinity Ward 10. Osmos / Hemisphere Games 10. Neverwinter Nights 2 Complete Bundle / Obsidian Note: Based on the sales result in August 16~22, the ranking is calculated by revenue size Source: Steam, Direct2Drive, Daewoo Securities Research 3 NCsoft Table 4. Type of Aion sales in US and Europe # Type Details 1 Pre-order The term means both types 2 and 3 When customer only buys a beta key for $5, customer can decide to pay the remainder when Aion is commercialized. Only available offline. 2 Pre-sale Benefits: Early game access (48 hours before commercialization) Access to Aion server character pre-selection Access to all BETA event weekends When customer purchases full package: $49.99 (Standard), $59.99 (CollectorÊs Edition). 3 Pre-tail Only available online. Digital downloads available at Steam, Direct2Drive Source: Company data, Daewoo Securities Research Table 5. Schedule of Aion service in US and Europe Date Details Sales of beta key May 14~ Sales of package June 17~ 3rd July 2~6 Asmodian levels 1~20 4th July 17~20 Elyos and Asmodian levels 1~25 Close beta testing 5th July 31~Aug. 3 Elyos and Asmodian levels 1~30 6th Aug. 14~17 Elyos and Asmodian levels 1~30 NCsoft will participate at game show in Germany Marketing in Europe Germany Aug. 19~23 Participants can experience Aion at the show Elyos and Asmodian levels 1~30 1st Sep. 6~13 Open beta testing Different from Korea, kind of close beta testing with bigger scale 2nd Mid Sep. Different from Korea, kind of close beta testing with bigger scale US Sep. 22 Pre-order provides 48 hour early access before commercialization Commercialization Europe Sep. 25 Pre-order provides 48 hour early access before commercialization Source: Company data, Daewoo Securities Research Table 6. Information of each site that releases ranking of pc games Site name Ranking term Base Introduction Daily, weekly, Popularity MMORPG.COM delivers news and is a community for the MMORPG genre. It covers 347 games, has MMORPG.com monthly, yearly (unique hits) 1,780 guilds (communities), 1,098,628 members, 2,905,520 posts. Steam is a pioneer in an online gaming platform that provides the ability to distribute games and other content directly to more than 15 million gamers around the world. Steam opens up new channels of distribution and allows for non-traditional product offerings while increasing profit margins to content creators.
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