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Khmer Gaming King Gaming HONG KONG March 21, 2013 NagaCorp Ltd COMPANY NOTE 3918 HK / 3918.HK Current HK$6.13 SHORT TERM (3 MTH) LONG TERM Market Cap Avg Daily Turnover Free Float Target HK$7.81 Previous Target N/A US$1,802m US$8.42m 58.0% HK$13,989m HK$65.30m 2,282 m shares Up/downside 27.4% Conviction| | Notes from the Field Khmer Gaming King NagaCorp operates the leading casino in Cambodia and has multi-year rerating potential from its monopoly in Phnom Penh supported by strong economic growth in Indochina and new capacity from 2016 to boost its gaming and non-gaming businesses. We initiate coverage with an believe that continued tourism Outperform rating and a target price growth to Cambodia (+24% in 2012) Michael Ting based on 14x CY14 EV/EBITDA, on along with strong economic growth in T (852) 25321121 E [email protected] par with our target for Sands China. Indochina (7.1% average growth from Including a dividend yield of 7%, 2013 to 2015) bodes well for gaming returns could total 34%. Stronger- operations in the region. Travel Company Visit Expert Opinion than-expected gaming revenue and convenience and infrastructure EBITDA growth are catalysts. improvements in Phnom Penh, along Channel Check Customer Views with an established gaming and Casino monopoly non-gaming track record should “The company’s corporate NagaCorp operates NagaWorld, an continue to shape NagaWorld into a vision is to become the integrated gaming resort in central preferred gaming destination in the undisputed entertainment Phnom Penh. It has a 70-year casino region. licence until 2065 and a 40-year destination in Indochina.” casino monopoly within a 200 km Naga2 to fuel growth radius of Phnom Penh until 2035. NagaCorp is expected to open its – Timothy McNally, Chairman NagaWorld offers diversified gaming second property, Naga2, in 2016. with 60% of its gaming revenue Naga2 is being built next to the coming from mass+slots, 34% from current NagaWorld complex and will VIP and the remainder from F&B, result in a 200% increase in gaming hotel, retail and entertainment tables, 145% increase in hotel rooms, facilities. NagaCorp is continuously 50x increase in retail space, and 6x extending its junket outreach in order increase in MICE facilities. Naga2’s to attract VIP players from outside US$369m capex will be privately Indochina. funded by NagaCorp’s founder and CEO, Dr. Chen Lip Keong, sparing the Favourable Indochina listed company from capex costs and macros keeping it debt-free. Naga2 forms Some 35-40% of NagaWorld’s mass- roughly 26% of our equity value for gaming visitors are from Vietnam. We the company, at HK$2.05/share. Price Close Relative to HSI (RHS) Financial Summary 7.2 193 181 Dec-11A Dec-12A Dec-13F Dec-14F Dec-15F 6.2 169 157 Revenue (US$m) 223.8 278.8 333.2 404.5 491.9 5.2 145 133 Operating EBITDA (US$m) 110.3 138.6 165.3 200.0 242.1 4.2 121 109 Net Profit (US$m) 92.0 113.1 138.5 171.2 211.2 3.2 97 Core EPS (US$) 0.044 0.054 0.063 0.075 0.093 85 4002.2 73 Core EPS Growth 109% 23% 17% 18% 23% 300 200 FD Core P/E (x) 17.87 20.00 21.37 17.75 14.39 Vol m Vol 100 DPS (US$) 0.031 0.038 0.043 0.053 0.065 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Dividend Yield 3.91% 4.86% 5.43% 6.71% 8.28% Source: Bloomberg EV/EBITDA (x) 14.32 11.34 8.87 7.46 5.88 52-week share price range P/FCFE (x) 30.08 24.41 22.83 18.62 14.89 6.13 Net Gearing (18.4%) (18.2%) (43.7%) (47.8%) (52.2%) 2.68 6.85 P/BV (x) 4.66 4.09 3.07 2.77 2.48 Recurring ROE 27.8% 30.0% 28.0% 27.7% 30.7% 7.81 Current Target % Change In Core EPS Estimates CIMB/consensus EPS (x) 0.93 SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Sources: CIMB. COMPANY REPORTS Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA NagaCorp Ltd March 21, 2013 PEER COMPARISON Research Coverage Bloomberg Code Market Recommendation Mkt Cap US$m Price Target Price Upside Wynn Macau 1128 HK HK NEUTRAL 13,699 20.50 22.42 9.4% SJM Holdings 880 HK HK OUTPERFORM 13,665 19.12 23.62 23.5% Sands China 1928 HK HK OUTPERFORM 39,693 38.25 41.95 9.7% NagaCorp Ltd 3918 HK HK OUTPERFORM 1,802 6.13 7.81 27.4% MGM China Holdings 2282 HK HK OUTPERFORM 8,194 16.74 19.81 18.4% Galaxy Entertainment 27 HK HK OUTPERFORM 17,854 32.95 36.81 11.7% Rolling P/BV (x) Rolling FD P/E (x) 40 50 35 45 40 30 35 25 30 20 25 15 20 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Wynn Macau SJM Holdings Sands China Wynn Macau SJM Holdings Sands China NagaCorp Ltd MGM China Holdings NagaCorp Ltd MGM China Holdings Peer Aggregate: P/BV vs Recurring ROE Peer Aggregate: FD P/E vs FD EPS Growth 9 45% 200 1,500% 8 40% 180 1,050% 7 35% 160 600% 140 150% 6 30% 120 -300% 5 25% 100 -750% 4 20% 80 -1,200% 3 15% 60 -1,650% 2 10% 40 -2,100% 1 5% 20 -2,550% 0 0% 0 -3,000% Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Rolling P/BV (x) (lhs) Recurring ROE (rhs) Rolling FD P/E (x) (lhs) Fully Diluted EPS Growth (rhs) Valuation P/E (FD) (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Wynn Macau 15.94 14.33 13.85 14.44 9.60 7.13 12.92 11.67 11.14 SJM Holdings 15.83 13.51 12.17 5.31 4.63 4.12 11.75 9.74 8.66 Sands China 32.22 21.74 16.22 7.13 6.68 5.81 22.28 17.05 13.19 NagaCorp Ltd 20.00 21.37 17.75 4.09 3.07 2.77 11.34 8.87 7.46 MGM China Holdings 14.04 12.45 11.11 10.76 7.38 5.39 11.52 9.37 8.02 Galaxy Entertainment 19.51 16.32 14.31 6.22 4.48 3.40 14.16 11.56 9.26 Growth and Returns Fully Diluted EPS Growth Recurring ROE Dividend Yield Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Wynn Macau 12.7% 11.2% 3.4% 117.1% 80.5% 59.1% 3.14% 3.49% 3.61% SJM Holdings 29.7% 17.2% 11.0% 36.3% 36.9% 36.1% 4.71% 5.67% 6.29% Sands China 8.6% 48.2% 34.0% 22.2% 31.7% 38.3% 3.66% 3.91% 4.01% NagaCorp Ltd -10.7% -6.4% 20.4% 30.0% 28.0% 27.7% 4.86% 5.43% 6.71% MGM China Holdings 38.2% 12.7% 12.1% 87.8% 70.3% 56.1% 6.09% 4.01% 4.50% Galaxy Entertainment 136.6% 19.6% 14.0% 40.6% 33.3% 28.1% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS Calculations are performed using EFA™ Monthly Interpolated Annualisation and Aggregation algorithms to December year ends 2 NagaCorp Ltd March 21, 2013 BY THE NUMBERS Share price info P/BV vs Recurring ROE FD Core P/E vs FD Core EPS Growth Share px perf. (%) 1M 3M 12M 4.5 30.5% 25 120% Relative 9.2 32.3 60.4 4.0 30.0% 3.5 29.5% 20 92% Absolute 6.2 31 67 3.0 29.0% 15 64% Major shareholders % held 2.5 28.5% 2.0 28.0% Dr. Chen Lip Keong 41.7 10 36% 1.5 27.5% OSK Investment Bank 7.0 1.0 27.0% 5 8% 0.5 26.5% Ameriprise Financial 4.6 0.0 26.0% 0 -20% Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Rolling P/BV (x) (lhs) Recurring ROE (rhs) Rolling FD Core P/E (x) (lhs) FD Core EPS Growth (rhs) Profit & Loss (US$m) Dec-11A Dec-12A Dec-13F Dec-14F Dec-15F Total Net Revenues 223.8 278.8 333.2 404.5 491.9 Gross Profit 163.8 203.2 244.2 298.5 365.0 Revenue growth fuelled by Operating EBITDA 110.3 138.6 165.3 200.0 242.1 stronger visitor arrivals in Depreciation And Amortisation (15.8) (20.2) (20.8) (21.8) (22.6) Operating EBIT 94.5 118.4 144.5 178.3 219.5 Cambodia, capacity Total Financial Income/(Expense) 1.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 expansion, and higher Total Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 per-table buy-ins.
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