TRUTH, Tejon and TeHacHapi: Tejon is $5 BiLLion cHeapeR by Richard F. Tolmach the major trade-offs decisions in California see Antelope as fatally flawed. Garlock California HSR Southern Mountain Crossing Comparison Fault LEGEND high-speed rail: detour through the fast- Zone The fault-laden Tehachapi Mountain Antelope Valley terrain eleva�on A Bay Area high-speed rail expert and Antelope Valley track eleva�on growing but isolated Antelope Valley, or range is a barrier and requires one of the aerospace engineer has released a slash- Antelope Valley tunnels (37 miles total) take the direct shortcut to Los Angeles. highest-elevation high-speed rail segments Tehachapi HSR Pass: 4073 � Tejon Pass terrain eleva�on TeHacHapi ing critique of the California High Speed Tejon Pass track eleva�on worldwide. Even the lowest passes require Tejon Pass tunnels (27 miles total) Rail Authority’s routing decisions between poLiTics senT HsR THe Long way Tejon Pass: 3642 � a roughly 1000 m (3300 ft) vertical climb 431 � Bakersfield and Sylmar involving the Tillier largely avoids political discussions lower San Andreas from the floor of the Central Valley, with San Andreas Fault Zone Southern Mountain Crossing, arguably the Fault Zone in his paper, but asserts in his paper that sustained steep grades and tunnels and most technically challenging mileage of the Garlock the above trade-off was never technical. bridges of considerable length. The seg- White Wolf Fault Zone Palmdale Longest Tunnel: Fault Zone San Gabriel California project. “For political reasons that will not be dis- 3300 � climb 7.0 miles ment incorporates the most complex and Ruling grade 3.5% San Gabriel The web-published piece and its sup- cussed here, Tejon Pass was never seriously Fault Zone expensive mileage of the entire proposed 3700 � climb Longest Tunnel: (Crossed in Tunnel) considered for high-speed rail,” says Tillier. Ruling grade 3.3% I‐5 Crossing Castaic Grade porting documents appear to represent hun- HSR network. (on bridge) 6.3 miles dreds of hours of research and analysis, but The Authority views its route choice of Tillier’s web article at http://www.cah- are highly readable and accessible, with all Antelope Valley as being irrevocable, but srblog.com/2013/06/the-truth-about-tejon/ Pleito 34 miles shorter calculations out in the open, contrary to the Fault Zone investors who have examined the project provides details of how the Authority and Tejon Sylmar Sylmar style of the Authority’s work. Clem Tillier’s Start in (via Tejon) (via Palmdale) documentation absolutely demolishes the vicinity San Gabriel Bakersfield Wheeler Ridge Fault Zone case for the Antelope Valley high-speed of Sha�er Fault Zone rail (HSR) route, along with the Authority’s West Bakersfield claims regarding cost, distance, speed and elapsed travel time. With two lawsuits focusing squarely on its consultants cooked the books to jus- adds about 10 miles to its length, as well as As part of his presentation, Tillier even false claims by the Authority pending in tify a political decision. The Conceptual proposing 7.5 miles of viaduct through open takes on the notion that HSR would be ben- California courts, the independent analysis I-5 Corridor Study, published at the same farm land, and 12 miles of downtown via- eficial to Palmdale, by pointing out a profit- poses both legal and technical problems January 2012 board meeting Roelof van Ark duct, instead of just skirting Bakersfield on driven HSR operator would limit Palmdale for the project, especially because its find- resigned his CEO post, said HSR should go open ground to the west. Tillier points out frequencies during commute hours and ings are very strong, worded in common the long way, 34 miles longer than needed. a Tejon line to the west of Bakersfield could increase prices to discourage low-yielding English, and meticulously supported. “This study was tailored, rather blatantly also save these 20 miles of viaduct. Palmdale passengers. He suggests that Tillier takes aim at 12 myths about the as we will see, to reconfirm the route via Given Bakersfield’s current opposition to HSR service will fall short of Palmdale’s southern mountain crossing which have Palmdale. The technical rationale for dis- the project, a western perimeter line may hopes, and fail to produce as much travel as been used to support the Tehachapi align- missing Tejon Pass alignments was built on be more feasible, in addition to saving bil- Metrolink enhancements. ment via the Antelope Valley and Palmdale: numerous contrived assumptions and con- lions. Tillier illustrates the technique with In a self-effacing way, Tillier asks “how 1. Tejon Pass HSR alignments can’t cross straints that warrant close examination,” an aerial view of Reims, which has a TGV- some guy on the internet can come up with into Tejon Mountain Village property said Tillier. Est Européen station on its southern fringe, this stuff and claim that it undercuts years 2. Tejon Pass HSR requires more tunnel- linked with town by a new light rail line. of studies by professional consultant teams ing than the Antelope Valley HsRa MiniMized TeHacHapi cosTs paid hundreds of millions of dollars? The 3. Tehachapi Pass is the easier moun- Among the more extreme assumptions point is that when it comes to math and tain crossing, as the Southern Pacific were HSRA’s claim of 29 miles of Antelope physics, the numbers don’t lie,” says Tillier, Railroad figured out in the 1870s Valley route tunnel. Tillier says the study who holds physics and engineering degrees from Princeton and Stanford. 4. Tejon Pass HSR suffers from greater Tejon “grossly distorts the truth about tunnels” seismic risk than Antelope Valley HSR and “underestimates by about 8 miles Tillier, who also hosts the Caltrain HSR the length of tunneling required for the Compatibility Blog, is a strong supporter of 5. Tejon Pass HSR via Santa Clarita would Tehachapi / Palmdale alignment by use of high-speed rail, and appears sincere in his significantly impact Newhall Ranch obsolete engineering data that has since desire to help make California HSR a bank- 6. Antelope Valley HSR via Tehachapi been refined in DEIR/SAA documents.” able, successful project. Pass alignment can just plug into the HSRA assumed the Tehachapi grades electric grid and the viaducts through Bakersfield could invesToRs May deMand Tejon 7. Bakersfield can be crossed at 220 mph be traversed at 220 mph, neither of which is “The numerous advantages of a Tejon 8. Bakersfield must be served with a a reasonable possibility given current engi- Pass alignment will not be lost on potential downtown station neering and equipment plans. private investors, who will spare no effort Tillier suggests Bakersfield not be sliced to produce their own untainted investment- 9. Tejon Pass HSR is only 3-5 minutes fast- Finally, Tillier points out HSRA also apart through the middle by a 220 mph grade analysis of the mountain crossing,” er than Antelope Valley HSR neglected to gauge the financial impact HSR line, but instead have a high-speed said Tillier. He noted that the 2012 business 10. HSR can operate at 220 mph on long of having to build and supply power to a rail station on its fringe like Reims. high-voltage line for the Bakersfield-Mojave plan requires $13 billion of private capital and steep down grades TeHacHapi (20% of $68 billion budgeted overall), and corridor, currently lacking megawatts for Tillier proposes a more reasonable Tejon 11. Tejon Pass HSR costs about the same as over 30 miles. Electrical power costs could that choosing the wrong mountain crossing Antelope Valley HSR Pass HSR alignment without a host of con- “could make or break HSR in California.” add a billion to the $5 billion Tillier cited for trived problems to compare with the likely 12. Tejon Pass HSR screws Palmdale. Tehachapi’s incremental construction costs. Antelope Valley alignment. To see his idea HSRA train simulation runs belatedly Palmdale will never get fast rail service in better detail and in 3D, download Tillier’s released this spring threw into doubt the to LA unless it is on the HSR main line HsRa exaggeRaTed Tejon cosTs KML file http://www.tillier.net/stuff/hsr/ feasibility of a 2 hour 40 minute timetable Each of the above myths constitutes a On the other side, Tillier says HSRA tejon.kml and open it in Google Earth. between San Francisco and Los Angeles distortion of reality. Tillier article systemati- exaggerated by 4 to 6 miles the tunneling via Tehachapi. That travel time is viewed Tillier provides details to dismantle each as necessary to successfully move air traffic cally demolishes them in turn, and in doing for Tejon Pass alignment by selecting an of the myths using numerous figures and so revives the prospects of Tejon Pass, also exceptionally poor alignment that avoids onto trains, a prerequisite to attract private diagrams to illustrate each point in a 75 investment. known as the “Grapevine” or I-5 alignment. Tejon Mountain Village. HSRA said in its slide PDF also linked to the web article Tillier’s comparison of two high speed January 2012 staff report that “Tejon Ranch noted above. Tejon’s travel time savings of 12 to 18 rail routes pits the Authority’s current likely Company would prefer that the alignments minutes in combination with lower capital not cross its property.” His conclusions are very compelling. costs and a better operating margin could Tehachapi route (in red) via the Shafter Compared to the Antelope Valley align- Bypass, Bakersfield Hybrid, Edison New “CHSRA/ PB took the avoidance of Tejon finally make the project viable in capital ment currently being planned with a stop markets. E2, Tehachapi New T3, New AV4, SR 14 E/ Mountain Village property as a strict non- in Palmdale, Tillier asserts that the more Hybrid, and Santa Clarita South against a negotiable constraint, as in ‘no trespassing.’ direct Tejon Pass HSR alignment would “If the numbers presented here are to direct Tejon Pass route (light blue). Tillier Dozens of promising HSR alignments were have the following advantages: be believed, the smart money will demand says a proper Tejon alternative can be 34 eliminated as a result of this constraint,” a Tejon Pass alignment. Failing this, pri- miles shorter than Tehachapi, provide a said Tillier. Tillier points out it would be • 12 minutes faster (7% of SF–LA trip time) vate capital will stay away, and California’s 431 foot lower pass, and save at least 12 to cheaper to condemn the small slice of land • 34 miles shorter high-speed rail system is unlikely to be 18 minutes of travel time, making rail more involved, or buy out Tejon whose entire • 10+ fewer miles of tunnel completed as planned. That’s why informed competitive with air. market capitalization is about $620 million, • 20 fewer miles of bridges HSR supporters, those who are analytically- minded and open to new information, Tillier provides a map (right) compar- less than the cost of extra tunneling. • $5 billion cheaper to build ing two possible HSR alignments through Apparently to further increase costs of should place their full support behind the these passes. The map, oriented so that • $175 million/year annual benefit from re-alignment of California’s high-speed rail 3 Illustrations: Clem Tillier the Tejon Pass route, HSRA assumed a lower operating cost and higher revenue the SF-LA axis is vertical, highlights one of jug-handled detour leaving Bakersfield that backbone via Tejon Pass,” said Tillier. 4 California Rail News May-July 2013 California Rail News May-July 2013 5