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The Indian Ocean Experiment and the Asian Brown Cloud

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The Indian Ocean Experiment and the Asian Brown Cloud GENERAL ARTICLES The Indian Ocean Experiment and the Asian Brown Cloud V. Ramanathan*, P. J. Crutzen, A. P. Mitra and D. Sikka The Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX) was sponsored by research agencies within Europe, India and USA, and was mainly concerned with the haze over south Asia and the adjacent Indian Ocean. It excluded other equally or even more polluted areas in Asia. The Asian Brown Cloud is a follow- on international research project that includes all of Asia. The brown haze is a worldwide phe- nomenon and should not be assumed to be just an Indian or an Asian problem. UNEP had commis- sioned a panel in 2001 to provide an early assessment of the societal implications of INDOEX findings. The panel published its report1 in August 2002 which was accompanied by a press re- lease2 prepared by UNEP. This article clarifies the scientific basis of the brown haze in response to a recent article by Srinivasan and Gadgil3 (hereafter referred to as SG). The south Asian brown haze covers most of the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and the south Asian region. It occurs every year, and extends from about November to April and possibly longer. The black carbon and other species in the haze reduce the average radiative heating of the ocean by as much as 10% and enhance the atmospheric solar radiative heating by 50 to 100%. These findings are at variance with SG’s perceptions that the haze occurs only during January to March, and that the aerosol forcing used by UNEP was unrealistically large because it used 1999 values and ignored IR effects of aerosols. INDOEX and UNEP did not rely just on 1999 values, but used data for 1996 to 1999, and also accounted for the compensating IR effects. The long duration of the haze, its black carbon content, the large perturbation to the radiative energy budget of the region and its simulated impact on the rainfall distribution, if proved correct, have significant implications to the regional water budget, agriculture and health. The link between anthropogenic aerosols and reduction of monsoonal rainfall in south Asia also has been made by over fifteen model studies pre- ceding the UNEP report. We do not find any reason to modify the findings, the recommendations and the caveats in the UNEP report. The press release, while its direct quotes of the report are accurate, should have given more emphasis to the caveats in the report. 5 THE equatorial Indian Ocean is a unique natural labora- vessel , which documented the sharp north–south gradi- tory for studying the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on ents in the pollutants across the ITCZ, giving strong cre- climate, because pollutants from the northern hemisphere dence to the INDOEX concept. This was followed by a are directly connected to the pristine air from the south- Sagar Kanya cruise in 1996 (ref. 6), which identified the ern hemisphere by a cross equatorial monsoonal flow into large south (of equator) to north increase in the aerosol the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ)4. This fact optical depths from 10°S to 20°N in the ocean and its provided the main motivation for the Indian Ocean large impact on reducing surface solar radiation, giving a Experiment (INDOEX; http://www-indoex.ucsd.edu) clue about the absorbing nature of the aerosol. A follow- proposed in 1995 (ref. 4). INDOEX observations started on satellite study7 revealed that the absorbing haze cov- in a relatively small way in 1995, on-board a research ered most of the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal due to long-range transport of the pollutants. Radiation V. Ramanathan and P. J. Crutzen are in the Scripps Institution of observations during 1998 and 1999 over the Kashidhoo Oceanography, University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, CA Climate Observatory and from space revealed that the 92037, USA; P. J. Crutzen is also in the Max-Planck Institute for Che- haze absorbed significant amounts of radiation8 within the mie, Mainz, Germany; A. P. Mitra is in the National Physical Labora- atmosphere, accompanied by a large decrease in radiation tory, New Delhi 110 012, India; D. Sikka lives at #40, Mausam Vihar, New Delhi 110 012, India reaching the surface. The 3-km thickness of the haze, the *For correspondence. (e-mail: [email protected]) widespread nature of the brownish haze (Figure 1) and CURRENT SCIENCE, VOL. 83, NO. 8, 25 OCTOBER 2002 947 GENERAL ARTICLES a b c d Figure 1. Photograph of the south Asian brown haze over the Nepalese town of Phaplu taken on 25 March 2001, approximately 30 km south of Mt Everest from a flight altitude of about 3-km viewing south (source: Ramanathan et al.18). The dry, northeast monsoonal winds carry the haze thousands of kilometers south and southeastward, and spread it over most of the tropical Indian Ocean between 25 N and about 5 S, as shown in the photographs a–d (source: Satheesh and Ramanathan8). gaseous pollutants, its chemical speciation, including The brownish haze (Figure 1) consists of a mixture of the concentration of black carbon and its large radia- anthropogenic sulphate, nitrate, organics, black carbon, tive forcing across the north Indian Ocean were identi- dust and fly ash particles and natural aerosols such as sea fied9,10 by the intensive field phase during January salt and mineral dust. The brownish colour is due to the to March 1999 with five aircraft, two ships, an observa- absorption and the scattering of solar radiation by black tory in the Maldives, surface stations in India and several carbon, soil-derived dust, fly ash and NO2. In situ chemi- satellites. INDOEX was conducted by an interna- cal composition of the haze was determined from the C- tional science team of over 200 scientists from Europe, 130 (refs 9 and 11) and the Citation (refs 10 and 12) air- India and USA (supported by their respective govern- craft from about 10 N in the Arabian Sea to about 8 S in ments). INDOEX findings have been reported in over the southern Indian Ocean (see photographs in Figure 1 150 journal articles, including two special issues in Cur- taken during research flights from 9 N to 9 S in the Ara- rent Science and two in the Journal of Geophysical Re- bian Sea and in the Nepal part of the Himalayas). Chemi- search; these publications formed the basis for the UNEP cal composition of aerosols was also determined from report. Sagar Kanya, Pune and Thiruvananthapuram13–16. 948 CURRENT SCIENCE, VOL. 83, NO. 8, 25 OCTOBER 2002 GENERAL ARTICLES Figure 2. Monthly mean aerosol optical depth at visible wavelength for selected months during 2001. Data were obtained from the MODIS instrument on-board NASA’s Terra satellite (source: Kaufman et al.17). Spatial and seasonal extent of the haze that particulate pollution is not limited to January to March. Figure 3 shows longer term aerosol chemical data 3 Srinivasan and Gadgil (SG) state that the effect of the collected at the Kashidhoo Climate Observatory, in the haze on climate is limited because ‘it occurs only during Maldives. This site is downwind of India during Novem- January–March… .’ This conclusion is not supported by ber to April. The data show that the sub-micron size sul- the data, which on the other hand suggest that the anthro- phate aerosols begin increasing from October, reach peak pogenic aerosols may linger (see Figure 2) over the values during December to March, and start their decline region at least for six months, if not longer. We begin during April; they reach low background values (typical with the recent MODIS (on-board TERRA satellite) aero- of clean marine atmosphere) only for four months during 17 sol optical depth (AOD) data at visible wavelengths for June to September. The low values during the SW mon- the year 2000, which yielded reliable AOD data over land soon season do not necessarily imply abatement of pollu- and ocean on a continuous basis. The data show the aero- tion levels in south Asia, but is rather indicative of the sol plume for the winter monsoon and the following dry prevailing winds from the cleaner southern ocean. season (November to April) extending from the Himala- yas all the way across the southern Arabian Sea. The plume reaches its maximum extent and strength in Febru- Source of the haze ary and March, hovering over most of Nepal, Pakistan, India, Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea and extends south of In situ measurements9–16 of CO, organics and aerosol the equator (see also Figure 1). April AODs shown (bot- chemical, optical, scattering and absorption coefficients tom panel, Figure 2) also reveal large AODs in south from aircraft, ships and surface stations clearly establish Asia and the eastern Arabian Sea, clearly establishing that anthropogenic sources contribute as much as 75% CURRENT SCIENCE, VOL. 83, NO. 8, 25 OCTOBER 2002 949 GENERAL ARTICLES them3, ‘the intensity of the haze happened to be maxi- mum in 1999 when the INDOEX observations were made’. This is a non-issue because the UNEP report was not based just on the year 1999, instead it uses the aero- sol forcing for 1996–1999 (ref. 18; see the caption for figure B in the executive summary1) and aerosol optical depth data for 1996 to 2000 (figure 4.3)1. Furthermore, when satellite data17,20,21 are integrated over the entire ocean basin north of the equator, the at- mospheric aerosol content (as indicated by AOD) for the year 1999 was not unusually large, but was within 10 to 15% of the values observed during 1995 to 2001 (refs 20 and 21) (Figure 4 a).
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