Cognitive Biases in Search a Review and Reflection of Cognitive Biases in Information Retrieval
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The Status Quo Bias and Decisions to Withdraw Life-Sustaining Treatment
HUMANITIES | MEDICINE AND SOCIETY The status quo bias and decisions to withdraw life-sustaining treatment n Cite as: CMAJ 2018 March 5;190:E265-7. doi: 10.1503/cmaj.171005 t’s not uncommon for physicians and impasse. One factor that hasn’t been host of psychological phenomena that surrogate decision-makers to disagree studied yet is the role that cognitive cause people to make irrational deci- about life-sustaining treatment for biases might play in surrogate decision- sions, referred to as “cognitive biases.” Iincapacitated patients. Several studies making regarding withdrawal of life- One cognitive bias that is particularly show physicians perceive that nonbenefi- sustaining treatment. Understanding the worth exploring in the context of surrogate cial treatment is provided quite frequently role that these biases might play may decisions regarding life-sustaining treat- in their intensive care units. Palda and col- help improve communication between ment is the status quo bias. This bias, a leagues,1 for example, found that 87% of clinicians and surrogates when these con- decision-maker’s preference for the cur- physicians believed that futile treatment flicts arise. rent state of affairs,3 has been shown to had been provided in their ICU within the influence decision-making in a wide array previous year. (The authors in this study Status quo bias of contexts. For example, it has been cited equated “futile” with “nonbeneficial,” The classic model of human decision- as a mechanism to explain patient inertia defined as a treatment “that offers no rea- making is the rational choice or “rational (why patients have difficulty changing sonable hope of recovery or improvement, actor” model, the view that human beings their behaviour to improve their health), or because the patient is permanently will choose the option that has the best low organ-donation rates, low retirement- unable to experience any benefit.”) chance of satisfying their preferences. -
Cognitive Bias Mitigation: How to Make Decision-Making More Rational?
Cognitive Bias Mitigation: How to make decision-making more rational? Abstract Cognitive biases distort judgement and adversely impact decision-making, which results in economic inefficiencies. Initial attempts to mitigate these biases met with little success. However, recent studies which used computer games and educational videos to train people to avoid biases (Clegg et al., 2014; Morewedge et al., 2015) showed that this form of training reduced selected cognitive biases by 30 %. In this work I report results of an experiment which investigated the debiasing effects of training on confirmation bias. The debiasing training took the form of a short video which contained information about confirmation bias, its impact on judgement, and mitigation strategies. The results show that participants exhibited confirmation bias both in the selection and processing of information, and that debiasing training effectively decreased the level of confirmation bias by 33 % at the 5% significance level. Key words: Behavioural economics, cognitive bias, confirmation bias, cognitive bias mitigation, confirmation bias mitigation, debiasing JEL classification: D03, D81, Y80 1 Introduction Empirical research has documented a panoply of cognitive biases which impair human judgement and make people depart systematically from models of rational behaviour (Gilovich et al., 2002; Kahneman, 2011; Kahneman & Tversky, 1979; Pohl, 2004). Besides distorted decision-making and judgement in the areas of medicine, law, and military (Nickerson, 1998), cognitive biases can also lead to economic inefficiencies. Slovic et al. (1977) point out how they distort insurance purchases, Hyman Minsky (1982) partly blames psychological factors for economic cycles. Shefrin (2010) argues that confirmation bias and some other cognitive biases were among the significant factors leading to the global financial crisis which broke out in 2008. -
Pleasantness Bias in Flashbulb Memories: Positive and Negative Flashbulb Memories of the Fall of the Berlin Wall Among East and West Germans
Memory & Cognition 2007, 35 (3), 565-577 Pleasantness bias in flashbulb memories: Positive and negative flashbulb memories of the fall of the Berlin Wall among East and West Germans ANNETTE BOHN AND DORTHE BERNTSEN Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark Flashbulb memories for the fall of the Berlin Wall were examined among 103 East and West Germans who considered the event as either highly positive or highly negative. The participants in the positive group rated their memories higher on measures of reliving and sensory imagery, whereas their memory for facts was less accurate than that of the participants in the negative group. The participants in the negative group had higher ratings on amount of consequences but had talked less about the event and considered it less central to their personal and national identity than did the participants in the positive group. In both groups, rehearsal and the centrality of the memory to the person’s identity and life story correlated positively with memory qualities. The results suggest that positive and negative emotions have different effects on the processing and long-term reten- tion of flashbulb memories. On Thursday, November 9, 1989, the Berlin Wall fell Wall, and how well do they remember factual details in re- after having divided East and West Germany for 28 years. lation to the event? These are the chief questions raised in On that day at 6:57 p.m., Günther Schabowski, a leading the present article. By addressing these questions, we wish member of the ruling communist party in East Germany, to investigate whether positive versus negative affect is as- had casually announced to a stunned audience during a sociated with different qualities of flashbulb memories. -
Memory Category Fluency, Memory Specificity, And
Journal of Experimental Psychology: General © 2019 The Author(s) 2020, Vol. 149, No. 1, 198–206 0096-3445/20/$12.00 http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/xge0000617 BRIEF REPORT Memory Category Fluency, Memory Specificity, and the Fading Affect Bias for Positive and Negative Autobiographical Events: Performance on a Good Day–Bad Day Task in Healthy and Depressed Individuals Caitlin Hitchcock, Jill Newby, Emma Timm, Willem Kuyken Rachel M. Howard, and Ann-Marie Golden University of Oxford University of Cambridge Tim Dalgleish University of Cambridge and Cambridgeshire and Peterborough NHS Foundation Trust In mentally healthy individuals, autobiographical memory is typically biased toward positive events, which may help to maintain psychological well-being. Our aim was to assess a range of important positive memory biases in the mentally healthy and explore the possibility that these biases are mitigated in those with mental health problems. We administered a novel recall paradigm that required recollection of multiple good and bad past events (the Good Day–Bad Day task) to healthy and depressed individuals. This allowed us to explore differences in memory category fluency (i.e., the ability to generate integrated sets of associated events) for positive and negative memories, along with memory specificity, and fading affect bias—a greater reduction in the intensity of memory-related affect over time for negative versus positive events. We found that healthy participants demonstrated superior category fluency for positive relative to negative events but that this effect was absent in depressed participants. Healthy participants exhibited a strong fading affect bias that was significantly mitigated, although still present, in depression. -
The Fading Affect Bias: Effects of Social Disclosure to an Interactive Versus Non-Responsive Listener
This is a repository copy of The fading affect bias: Effects of social disclosure to an interactive versus non-responsive listener. White Rose Research Online URL for this paper: http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/85286/ Version: Accepted Version Article: Muir, K, Brown, C and Madill, A (2015) The fading affect bias: Effects of social disclosure to an interactive versus non-responsive listener. Memory, 23 (6). 829 - 847. ISSN 0965-8211 https://doi.org/10.1080/09658211.2014.931435 Reuse Unless indicated otherwise, fulltext items are protected by copyright with all rights reserved. The copyright exception in section 29 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 allows the making of a single copy solely for the purpose of non-commercial research or private study within the limits of fair dealing. The publisher or other rights-holder may allow further reproduction and re-use of this version - refer to the White Rose Research Online record for this item. Where records identify the publisher as the copyright holder, users can verify any specific terms of use on the publisher’s website. Takedown If you consider content in White Rose Research Online to be in breach of UK law, please notify us by emailing [email protected] including the URL of the record and the reason for the withdrawal request. [email protected] https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/ EFFECTS OF SOCIAL DISCLOSURE Running head: EFFECTS OF SOCIAL DISCLOSURE The Fading Affect Bias: Effects of Social Disclosure to an Interactive versus Non-Responsive Listener Kate Muir*1, Institute of Psychological Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT. -
Communication Science to the Public
David M. Berube North Carolina State University ▪ HOW WE COMMUNICATE. In The Age of American Unreason, Jacoby posited that it trickled down from the top, fueled by faux-populist politicians striving to make themselves sound approachable rather than smart. (Jacoby, 2008). EX: The average length of a sound bite by a presidential candidate in 1968 was 42.3 seconds. Two decades later, it was 9.8 seconds. Today, it’s just a touch over seven seconds and well on its way to being supplanted by 140/280- character Twitter bursts. ▪ DATA FRAMING. ▪ When asked if they truly believe what scientists tell them, NEW ANTI- only 36 percent of respondents said yes. Just 12 percent expressed strong confidence in the press to accurately INTELLECTUALISM: report scientific findings. ▪ ROLE OF THE PUBLIC. A study by two Princeton University researchers, Martin TRENDS Gilens and Benjamin Page, released Fall 2014, tracked 1,800 U.S. policy changes between 1981 and 2002, and compared the outcome with the expressed preferences of median- income Americans, the affluent, business interests and powerful lobbies. They concluded that average citizens “have little or no independent influence” on policy in the U.S., while the rich and their hired mouthpieces routinely get their way. “The majority does not rule,” they wrote. ▪ Anti-intellectualism and suspicion (trends). ▪ Trump world – outsiders/insiders. ▪ Erasing/re-writing history – damnatio memoriae. ▪ False news. ▪ Infoxication (CC) and infobesity. ▪ Aggregators and managed reality. ▪ Affirmation and confirmation bias. ▪ Negotiating reality. ▪ New tribalism is mostly ideational not political. ▪ Unspoken – guns, birth control, sexual harassment, race… “The amount of technical information is doubling every two years. -
Emotional Reasoning and Parent-Based Reasoning in Normal Children
Morren, M., Muris, P., Kindt, M. Emotional reasoning and parent-based reasoning in normal children. Child Psychiatry and Human Development: 35, 2004, nr. 1, p. 3-20 Postprint Version 1.0 Journal website http://www.springerlink.com/content/105587/ Pubmed link http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=pubmed&dop t=Abstract&list_uids=15626322&query_hl=45&itool=pubmed_docsum DOI 10.1023/B:CHUD.0000039317.50547.e3 Address correspondence to M. Morren, Department of Medical, Clinical, and Experimental Psychology, Maastricht University, P.O. Box 616, 6200 MD Maastricht, The Netherlands; e-mail: [email protected]. Emotional Reasoning and Parent-based Reasoning in Normal Children MATTIJN MORREN, MSC; PETER MURIS, PHD; MEREL KINDT, PHD DEPARTMENT OF MEDICAL, CLINICAL AND EXPERIMENTAL PSYCHOLOGY, MAASTRICHT UNIVERSITY, THE NETHERLANDS ABSTRACT: A previous study by Muris, Merckelbach, and Van Spauwen1 demonstrated that children display emotional reasoning irrespective of their anxiety levels. That is, when estimating whether a situation is dangerous, children not only rely on objective danger information but also on their own anxiety-response. The present study further examined emotional reasoning in children aged 7–13 years (N =508). In addition, it was investigated whether children also show parent-based reasoning, which can be defined as the tendency to rely on anxiety-responses that can be observed in parents. Children completed self-report questionnaires of anxiety, depression, and emotional and parent-based reasoning. Evidence was found for both emotional and parent-based reasoning effects. More specifically, children’s danger ratings were not only affected by objective danger information, but also by anxiety-response information in both objective danger and safety stories. -
Dunning–Kruger Effect - Wikipedia, the Free Encyclopedia
Dunning–Kruger effect - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect Dunning–Kruger effect From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than average. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their mistakes.[1] Actual competence may weaken self-confidence, as competent individuals may falsely assume that others have an equivalent understanding. David Dunning and Justin Kruger of Cornell University conclude, "the miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others".[2] Contents 1 Proposal 2 Supporting studies 3 Awards 4 Historical references 5 See also 6 References Proposal The phenomenon was first tested in a series of experiments published in 1999 by David Dunning and Justin Kruger of the Department of Psychology, Cornell University.[2][3] They noted earlier studies suggesting that ignorance of standards of performance is behind a great deal of incompetence. This pattern was seen in studies of skills as diverse as reading comprehension, operating a motor vehicle, and playing chess or tennis. Dunning and Kruger proposed that, for a given skill, incompetent people will: 1. tend to overestimate their own level of skill; 2. fail to recognize genuine skill in others; 3. fail to recognize the extremity of their inadequacy; 4. recognize and acknowledge their own previous lack of skill, if they are exposed to training for that skill. Dunning has since drawn an analogy ("the anosognosia of everyday life")[1][4] with a condition in which a person who suffers a physical disability because of brain injury seems unaware of or denies the existence of the disability, even for dramatic impairments such as blindness or paralysis. -
Ilidigital Master Anton 2.Indd
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How Cognitive Bias Undermines Value Creation in Life Sciences M&A
❚ DEAL-MAKING In Vivo Pharma intelligence | How Cognitive Bias Undermines Value Creation In Life Sciences M&A Life sciences mergers and acquisitions are typically based on perceived future value rather than objective financial parameters, but the cognitive biases inherent in subjective assessments can derail deals. Executives need to take emotion out of the equation and rely on relevant data to craft successful transactions. Shutterstock: enzozo Shutterstock: BY ODED BEN-JOSEPH erger and acquisition transactions play a central role in the life sci- ences sector and are the catalyst for growth and transformation, Executives who evaluate their prospects driving innovation from the laboratory all the way to the patient. As I based on a narrow, internally focused discussed in my August 2016 article, “Where the Bodies Lie” (Nature view relying on limited information and Biotechnology, 34, 909–911), life sciences companies often fall victim personal experience – rather than by to recurring misconceptions that lead to unnecessary failure. consulting the statistics of similar cases M These failures often hinge upon management’s misunderstanding of the funda- – are prone to overestimate both their chances and degree of success. mentals of market and transactional dynamics. In particular, cognitive biases play a critical role, often leading to mistakes that are predictable and systematic. These biases disproportionally hinder the life sciences sector where, unlike other sectors, objective This tendency to think narrowly about transaction strategies leads to a and measurable financial parameters such as revenue, earnings and margins play a number of pervasive and severe biases minor role in determining company value as compared with scientific and clinical data. -
John Collins, President, Forensic Foundations Group
On Bias in Forensic Science National Commission on Forensic Science – May 12, 2014 56-year-old Vatsala Thakkar was a doctor in India but took a job as a convenience store cashier to help pay family expenses. She was stabbed to death outside her store trying to thwart a theft in November 2008. Bloody Footwear Impression Bloody Tire Impression What was the threat? 1. We failed to ask ourselves if this was a footwear impression. 2. The appearance of the impression combined with the investigator’s interpretation created prejudice. The accuracy of our analysis became threatened by our prejudice. Types of Cognitive Bias Available at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases | Accessed on April 14, 2014 Anchoring or focalism Hindsight bias Pseudocertainty effect Illusory superiority Levels-of-processing effect Attentional bias Hostile media effect Reactance Ingroup bias List-length effect Availability heuristic Hot-hand fallacy Reactive devaluation Just-world phenomenon Misinformation effect Availability cascade Hyperbolic discounting Recency illusion Moral luck Modality effect Backfire effect Identifiable victim effect Restraint bias Naive cynicism Mood-congruent memory bias Bandwagon effect Illusion of control Rhyme as reason effect Naïve realism Next-in-line effect Base rate fallacy or base rate neglect Illusion of validity Risk compensation / Peltzman effect Outgroup homogeneity bias Part-list cueing effect Belief bias Illusory correlation Selective perception Projection bias Peak-end rule Bias blind spot Impact bias Semmelweis -
The Dunning–Kruger Effect Is (Mostly) a Statistical Artefact
Intelligence 80 (2020) 101449 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Intelligence journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/intell The Dunning-Kruger effect is (mostly) a statistical artefact: Valid approaches to testing the hypothesis with individual differences data T ⁎ Gilles E. Gignaca, , Marcin Zajenkowskib a University of Western Australia, Australia b Faculty of Psychology, University of Warsaw, Poland ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Keywords: The Dunning-Kruger hypothesis states that the degree to which people can estimate their ability accurately Dunning-Kruger effect depends, in part, upon possessing the ability in question. Consequently, people with lower levels of the ability Intelligence tend to self-assess their ability less well than people who have relatively higher levels of the ability. The most Self-assessed intelligence common method used to test the Dunning-Kruger hypothesis involves plotting the self-assessed and objectively assessed means across four categories (quartiles) of objective ability. However, this method has been argued to be confounded by the better-than-average effect and regression toward the mean. In this investigation, it is argued that the Dunning-Kruger hypothesis can be tested validly with two inferential statistical techniques: the Glejser test of heteroscedasticity and nonlinear (quadratic) regression. On the basis of a sample of 929 general community participants who completed a self-assessment of intelligence and the Advanced Raven's Progressive Matrices, we failed to identify statistically significant heteroscedasticity, contrary to the Dunning-Kruger hy- pothesis. Additionally, the association between objectively measured intelligence and self-assessed intelligence was found to be essentially entirely linear, again, contrary to the Dunning-Kruger hypothesis. It is concluded that, although the phenomenon described by the Dunning-Kruger hypothesis may be to some degree plausible for some skills, the magnitude of the effect may be much smaller than reported previously.