THE WONKHE BRIEFING Volume 2, Issue 1, November 2018

HE Power List

ALSO IN THIS ISSUE The looming ONS review Post-Brexit immigration Student recruitment trends

Supported by Contents

2 Editor’s note The Wonkhe 3 Te Wonkhe HE Power List 2018 9 Te looming ONS review Weekly 11 Post-Brexit immigration The higher education podcast 12 OfS changes to access and participation 14 Te case for post-qualifcation applications 16 Student recruitment trends 18 Opinion - it’s time for a single tertiary system

The fourth edition of The Wonkhe Briefng

Welcome to the fourth edition of our need to see, avoiding ravines and mountain sole hard copy publication – Te Wonkhe ranges. Briefng. It aims to look at the big strategic It aims to give readers independent and themes for those taking big strategic original insights about what the real decisions. We already serve those grappling priorities might be for their particular with day-to-day issues through our articles, institution. Please share your copy with daily email briefngs, and relentless others or let us know where to send more. twittering. So, the briefng takes a step back We sincerely hope it’s useful to you, and we and up to look beyond short-term ruts in welcome any feedback at [email protected]. the road to identify the geography that those navigating the higher education sector Unless otherwise stated all opinions remain those of the Wonkhe team and not KPMG.

You can listen to all our podcasts by visiting:

www.wonkhe.com/blog-themes/podcasts/ Volume 2, Issue 1, November 2018 —1 Editor’s note The Wonkhe HE Power List 2018

Uncertainty and change are the new normal for the We’re thrilled that KPMG have agreed to support Te What is the Power List? of the cycle, and the costs of the write-of (the actual higher education sector. Te post-18 review is nearing its Wonkhe Briefng for another three editions. In this policy choice to subsidise a certain proportion of the endgame and the new regulator is up and running. Brexit edition Stephen Parker and Mike Rowley argue it’s time Te Power List is Wonkhe’s annual look loan book) into the 2040s. It’s why the UK has among looms over everything, sucking up the capacity of wonks for a coherent post-18 system, here and in Australia. at where power lies in the HE sector and the highest student fees in the world and a Byzantine and leaders. who holds it ... in a sector battered by income-contingent, government-backed loan system to And we’re also excited to introduce our new Australian criticism, with leaders rocked by revolts, and help pay for it. English HE continues down a path of divergence correspondent, Julie Hare and associate editor Jim politicians poleaxed by Brexit. We might from the other UK nations; something that could be Dickinson. question whether “power” is the right term Pullinger’s ONS is currently engaged with global accelerated by the outcome of the review of post-18 statistical agency counterparts to develop a more We’ve also hired three new staf members on the for our list – plenty of our top ffty would education and funding. accurate portrayal of this system of funding in public operations side of the business, relaunched our podcast privately argue that they are not nearly as accounts. Reporting some time over the next year, In this edition, we start with highlights from the Wonkhe as Te Wonkhe Weekly - a new format now digesting powerful as they might look, and in a sector its conclusions could turn the throw-away line in the 2018 HE Power List, identifying the key decision makers each week’s HE policy news with contributors from characterised by distributed leadership, it is post-18 review remit (that any suggested new scheme in and beyond the sector. Topping the table this year is across the sector, hosted by Wonkhe’s own chief usually the decisions of professional services must contribute to the lowering of the national defcit) the national statistician, whose decisions could make operating ofcer Rachael Firth. staf, academics, and students that make into a call for a rather more radical revolution for the current funding regime untenable and derail even the real diference to daily life in higher On a more personal note, there’s also been a small but higher education funding than Teresa May might have the Prime Minister’s preferred direction of travel. A true education. rather important addition to the Leach team, with had in mind. Forget everything you know about the black swan event. Samuel (#SamOnCampus) joining the family. And as But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t take fees question to date – ONS could reset the dial. If it We also look at the latest developments in post- if that wasn’t enough Wonkhe will have a brand new the responsibilities held by this top ffty turns out that it’s “real” money that we’re spending on Brexit immigration plans, which will all feed into the editor from January as Debbie McVitty takes the reins seriously. Te stewardship on ofer from our subsidising loans, and the fscal illusion is really coming delayed Home Ofce white paper. Te latest rhetoric to develop the team and let me step back from our daily protagonists can have a profound efect on to an end, then we’ll need a completely new system to from Number 10 is characteristically hard line, with output a little bit in order to work on the next exciting the future of the sector, and we trust that fund universities, or face cuts and downsizing of the the politics of Brexit (and the Conservative Party) phase of Wonkhe’s development. More on that to follow. decisions will be taken both with care and sector on a scale never before imagined. dominating actual evidence. with staf, students, and society frmly in From the whole (still growing) Wonkhe team, I really mind. #2 Michael Barber — Chair at the Ofce for Students Te sector’s new regulator is starting to fex its hope that you like this fourth edition. Please do help (OfS) considerable muscles, with widening participation spread the word about it, and let us know what we might As ever, the Power List is not a scientifc For the second year in a row, the former National Union an issue that the sector will be more accountable for do diferently next time. exercise, and no metrics or algorithms have of Teachers (NUT) policy ofcer performs well in our than ever. With the latest recruitment round over been deployed to justify our decisions – this Power List, but has been pipped to the number one slot and the frenzy of clearing behind institutions, some is a purely and unashamedly subjective Mark Leach this time. He’s here not just in his capacity as a very commentators – including Wonkhe’s own Editor at Large exercise which was compiled by an excellent executive chair of OfS, having a much more hands-on Paul Greatrix (Registrar at the University of Nottingham) Editor, Wonkhe panel of judges. role in shaping the growth and direction of England’s – advocating a major change to applications. Te latest new regulator than Higher Education Funding Council recruitment data is included to show how the sector as The top ten for England (HEFCE) chairs of yore. As a writer and a whole fared this year, with the proportion of 18-year- See the whole list at: thinker about the “science” of policy delivery, processes olds going to university at record levels in most of the www.wonkhe.com/he-powerlist-2018/ drawing on his ideas now touch every aspect of the four home nations. #1 John Pullinger — National Statistician sector. Baskets of metrics, ofcial and unofcial rankings, at the Ofce for National Statistics (ONS) the correct functioning of the market, and the mantra of choice seem to underpin nearly everything going on right Te entire funding policy of the English now – though not all of these can be traced back to OfS; higher education sector since the late 1990s most of these bear the imprints of ideas put forward in has been driven by a particular treatment of his book Instruction to Deliver: Fighting to Transform to be supporting Te Wonkhe Briefng and hope student loans within the national accounts. Britain’s Public Services and refned in How to Run a the focused analysis is both thought-provoking and It fatters the defcit, moving the possible “As a frm with deep roots in the sector, we are avid Government: So That Citizens Benefit and Taxpayers insightful.” income from interest payments to the start readers of Te Wonkhe Daily and Monday Morning Don’t Go Crazy. Briefngs. It is clear that with the various sector Justine Andrew, Market Director, Education, and Mike challenges (and opportunities) at the moment sensible Rowley, Head of Education, KPMG Contact: justine. debate is not only healthy but required. We are pleased andrew@kpmg.co.uk or [email protected]

2— Volume 2, Issue 1, November 2018 —3 It is no exaggeration to say that Barber’s concepts and and was briefy bursar of St Catharine’s #6 Alison Wolf — commentator and robustly whenever universities don’t act in students’ ideas have underpinned everything we have learned College, Cambridge. But he is an expert on researcher interests. Tis is crucial. Dandridge has had to tackle the lazy claim she is “poacher turned gamekeeper” about the way our new regulator will work. From access broken markets. Te former equities broker Wolf remains one of the biggest hitters after moving from Universities UK (UUK) to OfS. But and participation to quality assurance, even through to has spent two decades analysing the City’s in education policy; highly respected, conversely, she is dealing with complaints that OfS is at the way OfS measures its own performance, rankings, systemic faws, institutionalised failures, infuential, and well regarded. And her the beck and call of ministers chasing headlines on, say, measures, and metrics are everywhere. A world of and unethical practices, and how all that standing grows year after year. Tat’s because limiting unconditional ofers, reversing grade infation, risk-led regulation. It feels commonplace because it is contributed to the global crash in 2008. many in Number 10, the Treasury, and even commonplace, so profound has been the infuence of one addressing free speech, or restraining senior pay. Augar is playing his cards close to his chest the Organisation for Economic Co-operation man with a penchant for graphs and trajectories, and on what his fnal recommendations might and Development (OECD) share Wolf’s Te Power List panel was in no doubt that OfS will be adept at getting the ear of the elected. be. It’s tough to imagine, however, that worldview that increased participation in HE a force to be reckoned with. But only time will tell the #3 #NoCapitulation — Universities Superannuation his panel won’t tackle the collapse in adult has not resulted in increased productivity extent it will open up the market to new providers, Scheme (USS) campaign hashtag and part-time learning, boost maintenance and that there is a mismatch between skills whether it will protect quality and standards through the support, and create a stable FE funding and qualifcations, with many graduates teaching excellence and student outcomes framework In a frst, a hashtag has made the Power List. But model. One emerging theme hinted at is doing non-graduate jobs. For Wolf, it is (still … TEF), the extent it will use its registration #NoCapitulation was more than a hashtag. During reframing the language the current system is highly regressive to require graduates to drive particular policy outcomes, and how it will the culmination of what was the frst stages of a now couched in. Badly understood policy is, after today (and taxpayers in the future) to keep triangulate competing interests and policy across the protracted dispute over the USS pension scheme, the all, bad policy. investing in an inefcient system producing diferent UK nations. hashtag came to represent – on the face of it – the questionable outcomes. strength and depth of feeling and hurt among members #5 David Sweeney — Chief Executive at #8 Mark Walport — Chief Executive at UK Research of the scheme and what was being done to it. But it was Research England So, there was initial umming and ahing in and Innovation (UKRI) more than that. As something to organise around, it Number 10 about whether she should chair Te 2021 iteration of REF began to feel much Here not so much for what he has done in the role made clear that the digital picket line was even bigger the post-18 review before putting her on the more real this year. We’ve seen a blizzard of – which has been solid and steady, if unremarkable and louder than the actions on campuses. expert panel (following reservations from consultations and documentation setting out and perhaps a tiny bit dull – but for the potential senior ofcials at DfE that she may push Te dire state of sector industrial relations and the more rigidly the constraints and challenges encapsulated within UKRI. For the frst time, a single policy too far away from the current status widespread anger over the USS should greatly alarm of a very diferent system. It’s the biggest body supports the entirety of research in England: quo). It’s transparent, however, that the anyone concerned with the health and future of UK set of changes in research assessment since controlling the REF (and linked quality-related [QR] review’s fnal terms of reference are designed universities. With the other major pension schemes (the 1994, taking the best points from the Stern funding), third stream activity, project grants, and PhD to arrive at the kind of policy solutions Wolf Teachers’ Pension Scheme and the Local Government Review. Whether it fully addresses game studentships. Te Chinese walls between the two arms has been pushing for a decade plus – the Pension Scheme) about to get their own valuations and playing or just changes the rules of the game of dual support appear to be holding, and the advent of natural follow-up to her 2011 independent the ongoing battle over the annual pay dispute, the remains to be seen. But more generally, we’ve a number of cross-disciplinary funding schemes suggest review for DfE of 14–19 vocational sector needs to brace for another turbulent few months seen the rise of a quietly competent and that government, via Walport, is getting to grips with the education. for its fractured relations. And then its most urgent capable new funder in the form of Research potential of a fully operational mega-funding agency. #7 Nicola Dandridge — Chief Executive at priority must be to heal the wounds and ensure that UK England. One big sheet of paper in his in tray concerns open access higher education becomes the fair, equal, supportive, and the Ofce for Students With all of the convulsions and hand- to research. UKRI has signed up to the oddly-named happy place to work that it deserves to be, and a sector of wringing that has accompanied the painful Dandridge has been energetic, forthright, Plan S, committing the UK’s research funder to a radical which the whole HE community can all be proud to be a birth of OfS, it’s been easy to forget the and proactive since OfS opened up shop and fast-paced Open Access (OA) plan that delights part of. myriad issues that their research counterpart this year. She’s built up a very strong in- advocates as much as it will annoy publishers (and some #4 Philip Augar — Post-18 review panel chair has dealt with. Concerns about the Haldane house team. She’s engaged the sector from academics). More than anything, this requires skill and Principle, a dilution of infuence, and the top to bottom. She’s beaten the drum for surefootedness to negotiate. OA is clearly the future, but, “Philip who?” was the reaction when Augar was named near-inevitable fux from a new body joining stable, fair, risk-based regulation. And she’s as with much in life, the transition is everything. chair of the independent expert panel on Teresa May’s another new body have all been addressed. been crystal clear that OfS will intervene long-awaited post-18 education and funding review. Preparations for the Knowledge Exchange Te good-humoured, authoritative, and intellectual Framework (KEF) are proceeding as sensibly Augar would never claim to be a household name or as such a thing can, while other funding an education heavyweight – although he was on the allocations are continuing, expanding, or Department for Education (DfE) board for six years starting.

4— THE WONKHE BRIEFING Volume 2, Issue 1, November 2018 —5 #9 Olly Robbins — Te Prime Minister’s #10 Teresa May — Prime Minister (at time of writing) What’s going on? the defning issue in the government’s post-18 review of Europe adviser funding – and is likely to even delay the report from the We know it’s lazy to include a prime minister here – even When the current wave of poor publicity for independent panel beyond Christmas. If anyone has any control over the slow- a premier like May who is fghting for her position hour- the higher education sector started to hit in moving car crash that is UK Brexit planning, by-hour, day-by-day, week-by-week. But Teresa May 2016, many argued that it would pass. Any shift of the public subsidy involved in student it’s “Olly” Robbins. While politicians posture, clings on to both Number 10 Downing Street and the loans onto the balance sheet will make the sector more prevaricate, and occasionally resign, it’s up number 10 slot on this year’s Power List. We’ll set aside “Keep calm and carry on” was the message exposed to public scrutiny and accompanying spending to the Prime Minister’s Europe adviser to Brexit. Te issue which has dominated wonks’ agendas muttered in the Athenaeum. But headlines pressures. And with Brexit looming and another make things actually happen and to ensure for months has been the post-18 review – a political over grade infation, vice chancellor pay, spending review due, a sector awash with poor publicity that said things don’t have any unexpected exercise, driven fairly and squarely by May and Number freedom of speech, unconditional ofers, may struggle to hold its own. consequences. A career civil servant who 10. It was foated in the Tory manifesto last June, but and fees over £9k have continued unabated. was Gordon Brown’s principal private the frst time it properly surfaced was a three-point plan What felt like a blip has arguably settled Pensions and economic growth secretary, he came to Brexit prominence on the eve of its annual party conference last September: into something much more worrying for the Other traditional power bases also came under pressure as he led the (now 600-people-strong) freezing maximum tuition fees at £9,250, raising the sector. this year. Te USS pensions dispute may only have hit Department for Exiting the European Union graduate repayment income threshold to £25,000, Amid this sea of negativity, power has part of the sector, but the impact of passionate and social (DExEU). His move to Number 10 denoted and above all, a root and branch review of the funding shifted from those playing the game to those media-savvy academic activism on the leadership of an increasing prime-ministerial wish to take system. writing its rules. What used to be seen as universities, Universities UK (UUK), and the Universities personal control of a process widely seen vice chancellor “big beasts” have been cowed May has never been an instinctive supporter of and College Union (UCU) was signifcant and signals a as shambolic. Indeed, the perception of by marketisation missteps, embarrassment universities nor particularly interested in the intricate difcult year to come for industrial relations. Meanwhile, Robbins as a creature of the Prime Minister over their pay, and a need to avoid direct detail. But when politicians are on the ropes, they need the pressure on the sector to contribute to post-Brexit is the only factor that now detracts from his responsibly for industrial strife. to create room and breathing space to survive. It led to economic growth continues, with many on our list dominance – how secure May is in her grasp an odd position where she questions the value of degrees Stepping into that vacuum is a new regulator leading the public debate on apprenticeships, skills, of power is, at best, arguable. and acts as a guerilla activist against her own established – the Ofce for Students – that has started industrial strategy, and R&D. Expect their infuence to Higher education – as a strong visible policy. It signalled, however, that she “got” why she lost to fnd its feet, visibly and publicly replacing grow further as March 2019 advocate for Remain, a textbook example her House of Commons majority – it enables her to the cosy HEFCE “bufer body” of yesteryear gets closer. of the folk devil that is the “elite”, and a compete better with Labour’s pledge to abolish fees and with rules and risk-based regulation. It’s benefciary of the many European networks, restore grants, and it bulks out her ofer to “just-about- no accident that the leadership of the new A land of contrasts collaborations, and funding streams that managing” families, if she survives after the UK leaves regulator features prominently in the Power exist – has a lot at stake. How well Robbins the EU. List 2018. We caught a little bit of fak last year for our failure to understands and communicates the details include the minister responsible for higher education and benefts of continued collaboration – Statistically signifcant in the Scottish government. And we’ve done it again to his European counterparts and within this year, not least because we spent nearly the entire A year ago we might also have been surprised government – will be key in these fragile summer without one. It’s not a shortage of things that to see the boss of a statistics agency at the months ahead. need doing in Scotland – there’s a clear case to improve top of the tree. Higher education has largely the student maintenance ofer, for example – there’s just escaped the austerity faced by other public a lack of people with the willingness to do it. services in recent times, in part due to an In contrast, it’s all going on in Wales – as the Diamond accounting treatment that made the removal Review is done, the attention turns to the Hazelkorn of a cap on student numbers possible. But Review and implementing the architecture of a new the growing realisation (spurred by some tertiary education system. But it’s happening in an superb journalism from Andrew McGettigan) orderly fashion under a capable and well-respected that this is deeply problematic has made minister. Tere’s less drama, which, from an English their emerging position on the alternatives perspective, feels like a very good thing right now.

6—6 — THE WONKHE BRIEFING Volume 2, Issue 1, November 2018 —7

The rest: 11-50

See the whole list including profles in full at: 30 Diana Beech and Stian Westlake, Policy The looming ONS review www.wonkhe.com/he-powerlist-2018/ Advisers to the Minister of State for Universities, Science, Research and Tis ofers a presentational boon for today’s government. 11 Jeremy Corbyn, Leader of Her Majesty's Loyal What could a review of accounting Innovation, Department for Education Tat £16 billion sits outside the defcit target for the Opposition treatment of student loans mean 31 Josephine Cumbo, Pensions Correspondent, time being (unlike grant spending on teaching or 12 Bob Kerslake, Chair, Civic University Financial Times for higher education? maintenance), and the costs of the current policy are Commission only properly recognised in the mid-2040s. It is not 32 Janice Kay, Senior Deputy Vice-Chancellor, Cutting the “defcit” and slowing down the 13 Anton Muscatelli, Vice Chancellor, University just that loans are preferred to grants – because some University of Exeter growth of “debt” have been central targets for of Glasgow and Chair, Russell Group repayments are projected to come back – it’s that the 33 Robert Halfon, Chair, House of Commons governments of the last decade. Tey present current accounting conventions make it seem as if loans 14 Susan Lapworth, Director of Competition Education Select Committee a political narrative based on these targets are surplus generating, when (in real terms) they are not. and the Register, Ofce for Students and ask the electorate to judge them against 34 Joanne Segers, Chair, USS Joint Expert Panel Based on national accounts cash fgures, the Ofce that test: “to return the public fnances to 15 Alastair Jarvis, Chief Executive, 35 Alex Proudfoot, Chief Executive, Independent for Budget Responsibility (OBR) now predicts that balance at the earliest possible date in the Universities UK Higher Education repayments for this year’s cohort of borrowers will next Parliament”. 16 Sam Gyimah, Minister for Universities, 36 Sally Hunt, General Secretary, University and amount to £18 billion in total and that £30 billion In general, the defcit is captured by Public Science, Research & Innovation College Union of accumulated interest will be written of. Once the Sector Net Borrowing (PSNB), which government’s own cost of borrowing is factored in, the 17 Edward Peck, Vice Chancellor, Nottingham 37 Kehinde Andrews, Associate Professor in measures the excess of total government OBR claims that “total outlays and fnancing costs are Trent University Sociology, Birmingham City University expenditure over income. References to expected to exceed total repayments for this cohort by 18 Janet Beer, Vice Chancellor, University of 38 Andrew McGettigan, Independent Journalist “government borrowing” and “the defcit” £9.7 billion”. Liverpool and President, Universities UK are therefore typically synonymous: we are 39 Mary Stuart, Vice Chancellor, University of Te government acknowledges that loans are subsidised talking about a shortfall that needs to be 19 Chris Millward, Director for Fair Access and Lincoln and are expected to be expensive in the long run. It covered by money from elsewhere; borrowing Participation, Ofce for Students lends the money to students through its Student Loans 40 Nick Hillman, Director, Higher Education that adds to the stock of debt. 20 Liz Truss, Chief Secretary to the Treasury Policy Institute Company (SLC) and it collects repayments when they But not everything that requires cash outlay come in. It has not asked someone else to disburse the 41 Alison Johns, Chief Executive, Advance HE 21 C hairs of the Parliamentary Committee, counts as expenditure. And this is where cash with the promise that a future government will Parliamentarian policy scrutineers 42 Jeremy Farrar, Director, Wellcome Trust English student loans enter the scene. With pick up the bill. All that’s at issue is when the costs are 22 Kirsty Williams, Cabinet Secretary for 43 Chris Husbands, Vice Chancellor, Shefeld an increasingly large place on the national recorded. But given the centrality of the statistics to Education, Wales Hallam University and Chair, Teaching balance sheet, they are attracting more the political narrative, when costs are recorded has life Excellence and Student Outcomes Framework attention in so far as they begin to distort beyond that paper exercise. 23 Michael Otsuka, Political Philosopher, Panel the headline statistics signifcantly. London School of Economics Tis deferral of write-of expenditure explains why 44 Shakira Martin, President, National Union of Teresa May’s Autumn Budget 2017 decision to raise the 24 David Lammy, MP for Tottenham Distortions Students repayment threshold on post-2012 loans – from £21,000 25 Emran Mian, Director General (interim), 45 Lucy Hunter Blackburn, Former Head of HE, Te government is now issuing roughly £16 to £25,000 per annum – can be consistent with defcit Higher Education and Further Education Scottish Government billion of tuition fee and maintenance loans reduction. As long as the interest accruing is roughly annually, but this fgure is not classifed as the same, there is no short-run hit to the defcit, despite 26 Jon Yates, Secretary of State for Education’s 46 Jess Wade, Early career researcher, Imperial expenditure. Instead, these loans are classed the massively increased long-run costs. Te additional Special Adviser on Policy College London as “fnancial transactions”, which means expenditure only turns up in the form of write-ofs, 27 League table industry 47 Gordon McKenzie, Chief Executive, GuildHE that what gets counted as spending are the thirty years and more down the line. 28 Amatey Doku, Vice President (Higher 48 Douglas Blackstock, Chief Executive, QAA balance write-ofs when they occur – in the main, decades after the loans were frst Education), National Union of Students 49 Anthony Seldon, Vice Chancellor, University issued. 29 Rosie Tressler, Chief Executive, Student of Buckingham Minds 50 Aleksandr Kogan, Data Salesman, Cambridge Analytica and the University of Cambridge

8— THE WONKHE BRIEFING Volume 2, Issue 1, November 2018 —9 Post-Brexit immigration

Immigration dominated the agenda at the beginning of However, despite criticism from predictable the academic year, with the publication of two reports corners of the press, MAC did come as from the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) on close as such a body can to criticising the the impact of international students and of European politicised use of migration statistics, a Economic Area (EEA) migrants, further contributions practice unique to the UK and one that from the Higher Education Commission, and ongoing demonstrably harms international student media speculation surrounding what a post-Brexit higher recruitment. education sector could look like. Coincidentally, on the same day the After a year of speculation that the MAC report would Home Ofce-commissioned MAC report challenge Teresa May’s isolated support for including was published, the DfE highlighted the international students in the net migration target, the importance of international students in its sector’s hopes were dashed. We had to settle instead for response to the annual OECD Education the likely continuation of contradictory rhetoric from the at a Glance report. Not quite joined-up government, signalling on the one hand that migrants government. (including students) are not welcome, while on the other Te committee’s second report on EEA claiming to want more international students to study in Tis exercise raises critical questions: migration didn't explicitly deal with HE, Accounting for student loans the UK. however it did recommend that there should • Will HE appear to be more costly today Te national accounting treatment for loans MAC’s frst report confrmed the net positive impact of be no cap on highly skilled migration – a as a result of these changes? is well established and governed by the international students and the UK’s poor performance policy popular with the sector. Questions European System of Accounts (ESA). It is • What will it mean for the scope of the current HE against competitor nations in recent years, but it failed remain about the low- and medium-skill the responsibility of ONS to prepare the UK review? to call for a coherent national strategy, and only ofered roles – such as cleaners, secretaries, and fgures. Te ONS accepts that “the current • Will Teresa May’s threshold largesse now have to minor tweaks to help diferent types of students to apply technicians – that keep the sector running. recording over-simplifes the underlying to stay on to work after studying. register as spending today in the national accounts? Hot on the heels of MAC came the Higher economic substance of these loans”. Te Te report also opened up new avenues of attack on the Education Commission’s Staying Ahead specifed treatment for commercial loans No one in the sector or government will be too keen sector, citing the “surprisingly” low earnings of some report, with twelve recommendations, is clear, but the decision to treat student on HE suddenly appearing more expensive. But the international graduates and questionable estimates including for the Home Ofce to adopt loans in the same way is likely to be altered. current treatment is not robust – which is now ofcially that international students cost the NHS more than the a "friendly environment policy", for Tis requires work with ONS’s international recognised – and we shouldn’t forget how generally mandatory £150 fee that Tier 4 applicants have to pay. government departments to work more partners to extend current guidance unpopular the fee–loan regime is. Hopefully the HE together (see above), and for the UK to have adequately. review can beneft from a sea change: alternatives that had been ruled out for being too costly become much an ambitious recruitment target. more feasible once the presentational advantages of loans are removed. John Pullinger tops this year’s Power List for good reason.

10— THE WONKHE BRIEFING Volume 2, Issue 1, November 2018 —11 OfS changes to access and participation

Tese days we know what to expect from OfS: data- "It’s all a bit Goldilocks, really. A driven, risk-based regulation, giving the impression of little bit, but not too much. As more rigour and more red lines with, when you really look at it, less actual intervention and a little more we get used to the system, it’ll institutional burden. become easier to understand Tere’s a lot to be pleased about. Te clearer and wider what OfS might want to see, defnition of under-represented groups takes in data but for the frst iteration" about the participation of local areas (POLAR) alongside The what, when, socio-economic status, ethnicity, disability, age (there’s Chris Millward (Director for Fair Access a focus on mature students as a clear priority), and care and Participation) leavers. where and why of OfS will be requesting data from institutions covering So there will be an element of strategy every stage of the student journey (application, ofer, in choosing institutional aims – they are acceptance, registration, completion, and award) against expected to be stretching (those that are not a backdrop of contextual data about gender, ethnicity, won’t be approved), but an institution would UK higher education and socio-economic background. It will be published by be foolish to specify targets it realistically OfS, too. Tis data will be used alongside other sources could not achieve. (UCAS, HESA, etc.) to measure progress against targets It’s all a bit Goldilocks, really. A little bit, but outlined by OfS and set by the institution itself. not too much. As we get used to the system, Tere’s room for specifc institutional aims, too – OfS it’ll become easier to understand what OfS will suggest possible measures, but institutions will might want to see, but for the frst iteration, plot their own courses and report back. However, OfS every word coming from Chris Millward will “challenge providers’ assessments of performance, (Director for Fair Access and Participation) strategy, and associated targets if they do not, in our – and all of the guidance and briefngs OfS view, address areas where we have identifed concerns”, ofers – will be dissected and critiqued for Stay ahead of the hectic policy and news and will form their own view on how a provider has hidden hints. Indeed, there’s a risk that a agenda with our daily brief ng - written each performed against these self-selected targets. REF-like mythology may arise – and that wouldn’t help anyone. day by our team of HE wonks and delivered to your inbox every day before work.

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12— THE WONKHE BRIEFING The case for post-qualifcation applications

Paul Greatrix, Registrar at the University of Nottingham makes the case.

Te dust has now settled on this year’s confrmation process with applicant support embedded the need for a period of preparation and consider will difer – students would need information on and clearing round, and it’s time to refect (again) on throughout: helping students in fnding information and the distribution of the grades for students accepted onto the arrangements we have in UK higher education providing decision support. He also argues each course so as to get an indication of whether their Stage 1: supporting HE choice-making (although things do operate a bit diferently in Scotland) for a broadly similar structured approach: achieved grades are suitable. Further, it will most likely for recruiting, selecting, and admitting students to At present, many schools and colleges ofer Space needs to be found for the applications require more investment of university staf time over the university. HE visits, etc., at the end of Year 12 to help and determination of places. Currently, A summer period, and decisions would need to be made as students make HE choices, but they do not levels take place in June, with results in mid- to the the role of academics and professional staf in the A common question is whether we should move from a engage all Year 12 students. As part of a new August, and the university term starts at process as a result. system where applicants are given predicted grades to PQA package, this ofer could be formalised the end of September. Tese three elements apply with to one where they apply after receiving their However, there is no defnitive reason why widening and enhanced via a National HE Choice of the admissions system – the schools actual grades. Tis is called post-qualifcation applications participation should be harder under PQA (surely it can Week in July of a Year 12/frst year Level 3 and colleges, the awarding bodies, and the (PQA). only improve?); disruption is inevitable, but if we plan for course universities – would each need to give a it – say, for fve years hence – it will become much more Recently, John Dunford (formerly a secondary head little in order to create space for a successful Stage 2: supporting preparation for HE manageable. Teachers will be available to advise students, teacher, General Secretary of the Association of School PQA system. A levels could be a week or two success and the pressure on those taking exams surely will not be and College Leaders, and the National Pupil Premium earlier, reducing teaching time by a small A key goal for the HE system is to improve any greater than at present. Champion) wrote a powerful piece in the Times proportion, exams could be marked and student success among all groups of learners Educational Supplement (TES) arguing for PQA. He results produced more quickly, and the start We do need to limit the scope for unhelpful interference, and in particular close gaps in student noted that the previous attempts to introduce such of the frst year at university could be a week address the core principles required for fair admissions, success by social background. Adjustments changes into the system included a Committee of Vice or two later. ensure universities can’t subvert or game the system, seek Chancellors and Principals (CVCP) investigation in 1994, to the HE admissions timetable as a result to secure proper information, advice, and guidance for Te UCAS report in 2011 concluded that the a call from a commission including the Secondary Heads of PQA could free up space to better prepare applicants, and address widening participation needs. Te system needed changing to PQA because Association and UCAS for a two-stage process in 2004, students for HE. Earlier examinations as route to achieving this would mean change for all parties, many applicants were making choices about the Schwartz Review (also in 2004), and a UCAS-led part of PQA would allow the delivery of an but such change could well be in the long-term interests of what and where to study before they were consultation in 2011. Every one of these eforts failed HE preparation week in June/July of Year everyone. fully ready; the combination of predicted because of objections raised from both the school and 13. A week focusing on study skills, fnancial grades, insurance choices, and clearing create Moving away from admissions based on predicted grades higher education sectors. education, and independent learning to a system of admission on the basis of grades achieved techniques would be a huge beneft in a new a complex system that lacks transparency In the summer, Graeme Atherton produced a report has been proposed previously, and historically there PQA system. for many applicants, and is inefcient and for UCU which looked at 29 other admissions systems cumbersome for universities; and only the have been many objections, especially around exam Stage 2: supporting HE decision making around the world and found that PQA is the global norm, best-informed applicants and advisers are boards’ marking arrangements and universities’ teaching that it could lead to more equitable access, that it works HEIs in England, Wales, and Northern able to optimise UCAS applications, creating timetables. While solutions to these have latterly become in larger systems, and that it supports “high-performing Ireland invest signifcant time and efort in a divide between applicants who receive apparent, they have been replaced by new concerns – education systems” – with 9 of the 10 countries in the competitive practices after A level results are efective advice and those who do not. particularly around fairness to applicants, information, world with the best performing graduates using PQA. released via clearing. PQA would allow this advice, and guidance provision during school vacation A number of issues arise when considering clearing phase to be repurposed as an advice periods, and ensuring wider participation. With the latest Atherton argues that a PQA-based process could “evolve how to implement PQA – the main one phase to ensure that students make the right application round behind us, could now be the time to into one that builds statutory support for learners to being that of the practicality of an essential choices after they receive their results. think about improvements to the current system? make HE choices, prepare for HE study, and make HE upheaval of the system. To implement PQA, decisions”. He envisages admissions as a three-step Similar points are made by Dunford about the information that applicants need to

14— THE WONKHE BRIEFING Volume 2, Issue 1, November 2018 —15 S plit Student recruitment trends F F+M 40 M Tis year’s student recruitment was always going to be university this autumn if young people in make or break for many institutions, and the academic lower entry rate neighbourhoods (quintiles year started with an unprecedented furry of vice 1, 2, and 3) went to university at the 30 chancellors leaving their post. While not all of this can be same rate as their peers living elsewhere. lV ua e attributed to this year’s recruitment performance, you’d Te current low demand/high supply better believe it was a factor in many cases. environment is only going to last a few years. 20 After that, demand will likely rise rapidly, Overall, the statistics stuck to demographics and probably outpacing supply. Large numbers established year-on-year trends – a high (in some cases squeezing to get in acts as a strong headwind 10 record) proportion of 18-year-olds from each home for equality. If more equal entry is not nation, but a lower number overall, refecting the lower embedded in universities before the early number of 18-year-olds in the population. You’d expect 0 2020s, then it is quite possible that little an increase in international recruitment to compensate 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 progress will be made for a generation. for this, and you’d be correct. Qua rte r of Aca de mic Ye a r

1000K Country of domicile Higher Education Initial Participation Rate (HEIPR) percentage by gender Eng la nd EU (e xcluding UK) Northe rn Ire la nd 800K Not EU “For technical reasons, Scotland It is important to remember that UCAS data is only one S cotla nd side of the story. For mature and part-time students, in W a le s is under-represented in POLAR. particular, there is a greater likelihood that applications 600K So the absolute number of happen outside of the UCAS system.

Scottish cases is small in the Te higher education initial participation rate (HEIPR) 400K UK bottom quintile: the 12% shows how likely somebody is to participate by the age Number ofpplica a nts rise is from 620 to 690. As of 30, and includes all levels of study (sub-degree, frst degree, or postgraduate) as well as those not applying 200K there is no distorting efect via UCAS. In the fgure below we see that the proportion on the POLAR fgures from of young people participating in HE has reached 48.8%, being a target, they provide meeting Tony Blair’s (in)famous target, albeit by 0K rounding up. However, within this fgure is a precipitous some reassurance, I think, that

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 drop in part-time study after the 2012 reforms and an we really are seeing increased ever-widening gender gap. Women are now 12.4% more Number of applicants by domicile entry from particularly under- likely to go to university. Tat said, there’s what looks like great To understand fully whether the new loan eligibility for Of course, what matters this year more than ever are the represented areas, and not just, news in Scotland. By both POLAR part-time students has had an impact in arresting the institutional fgures – and we won’t see them from UCAS say, a shufing of the better-of (particularly, with a jaw-dropping 12% politically-visible freefall in numbers, we’ll need to wait until the end of January. increase!) and Scottish Index of Multiple people in SIMD1 areas from for Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) fgures, On the widening participation front, analysis suggests Deprivation (SIMD) measures the most college to university.” out at a similar time and currently being gathered and that progress on disadvantage has collapsed – since disadvantaged quintile of young people submitted by university data managers. 2012, the worst of have been 4% to 8% (proportionally) are now substantially more likely to access Another source of information on this will come from more likely to go to university every year. Tis year, higher education. Scottish policy expert Lucy the Student Loans Company – these come one academic that growth in university entry chances has collapsed Hunter Blackburn cautiously welcomes this year later, so for this year’s frst years we’ll have to to almost zero. Tere would be another 57,000 18-year- rise while noting the low total number of wait until November 2019 for a frst look from this olds from England (65,000 at the UK level) starting at young people involved: perspective.

16— THE WONKHE BRIEFING Volume 2, Issue 1, November 2018 —17 Opinion - it’s time for a single tertiary system

Love or loathe the phrase “fourth industrial revolution”, A new national tertiary system and the visual arts. Redefned descriptors to the learner. the times are certainly a-changin’. Whether it’s the would allow upper-level qualifcations to A refresh would also be an opportunity to develop environment, inequality, ageing or any other global Tis situation is not sustainable given the accommodate excellence in practice and a comprehensive and forward-looking system that challenge - an emerging cluster of new technologies have growing disconnect between what the technique, not just theory and knowledge. identifes the skills needed to meet those grand the potential to ofer disruptive solutions to hitherto current system delivers and the skills that How these qualifcations are defned will set challenges, as well as fexibility to adapt in future as new stubborn problems. One area where big changes may be employees and employers say they need. the tone for this new, more equal system. Te challenges emerge. Funding should be coherent and overdue is our education and training structure. Both nations need a national tertiary current language is beset by inherent biases demand-driven across the whole system, giving learners, education and training system, providing a and value judgements. Here, we share some emerging ideas from Down Under, holistic set of pathways for post-18 higher- governments and employers a say. Numbers shouldn’t be along with challenges that both nations need to face up level study and training. capped, but demand should be infuenced by employers to. We believe the time for change in the UK is ripe, with A new approach to funding and governments at diferent levels. Tis requires a new relationship between FE the government’s reviews of post-18 education, funding, Such national qualifcation frameworks and HE, ending the “false divide”, as the UK Funding for tertiary systems should also be transparent, and of Levels 4-5, new “T levels”, plus Labour’s emerging would provide the structure, funding and universities minister Sam Gyimah recently with clear accountability for the outcomes public and National Education Service. regulation for the new holistic system, where called it. A new mix of services are necessary private money is investing in - whether that’s teaching or rigorous qualifcations (demonstrating what to deliver the education and skills countries research. An element of cross-subsidisation of research Challenges for both nations people actually know and can do) are the now need, providing responsive education from tuition income is inevitable, particularly in the focus, rather than the current binary splits It is commonly accepted that further education (FE) is ecosystems at local and national levels. cross-over area of “scholarship”, but the starting point between provider types and funding streams. under-funded and marred by a lack of investment and However, in both nations unguided market should be that high-quality research needs to be fully- But this isn’t just about qualifcations – it’s fawed policies in both countries. Many colleges teeter on forces won’t achieve the required changes funded by governments or industry and not be so reliant also about learners and employers being the fnancial brink. By some measures learners’ outcomes alone, nor will policy tinkering around the on teaching money from students. confdent the right skills have been imparted are sometimes poor in FE, and the sector constantly edges. Only deliberate and major national strives for “parity of esteem” with higher education (HE). policy changes will be sufcient. Te reverse is true on other measures and in some cases. Regardless, the abstract, theoretical and academic have A refreshed national qualifcations been consistently prioritised over the practical, technical and vocational. Tis is endemic among families, friends, framework teachers and politicians. Tis hierarchy means that Rather than false FE/HE dichotomies, this knowledge is prioritised over skills (when obviously the new national tertiary system should feature answer is both). It could also be argued that HE has over- a single, redefned and refreshed national expanded, while FE has dangerously contracted. framework for qualifcations - from entry- In both countries the FE and HE systems are pulled level certifcates, to bachelors degree, degree in diferent directions by a confusing cats-cradle of apprenticeship or equivalent (Level 6 in the regulations and funding. Meanwhile, the dream of UK, Australian Qualifcations Framework lifelong learning remains unrealised, with the numbers of level 7 in Australia), and through to PhD mature and part-time students in England nose-diving, (Level 8 or AQF level 10). Tis should just when retraining is more important than ever. Too place practical and technical awards on a many adults – including graduates - still have low basic par with the academic at each level, there’s skills or digital literacy. no reason why a PhD should be “higher” than exceptional mastery of skills in felds involving performance, creativity, design

18— THE WONKHE BRIEFING Volume 2, Issue 1, November 2018 —19 One regulator to rule them all A consistent learner experience Regulation should be light touch, with the current Te process of applying and progressing swathes of red tape trimmed down. A unifed tertiary through this new, unifed tertiary system system requires one independent regulator for should be completely agnostic about quality and one for everything else, not the array of technical or academic options. Applicants organisations that feature in the UK and Australia. should get the same information, apply in the same way, and be able to move between For instance, many English FE colleges have to answer the two seamlessly. Why is it in the UK to the Education and Skills Funding Agency, Ofsted and that UCAS only covers higher education the Ofce for Students. English universities are regulated applications, whereas FE is fragmented - by the Ofce for Students, Ofsted and the Quality requiring diferent applications to individual Assurance Agency. Down Under the Australian Skills institutions? All students should be given Quality Authority (ASQA) covers vocational provision engaging and accurate information about while the Tertiary Education Quality and Standards outcomes. Micro-credentials would recognise Agency (TEQSA) regulates higher education. Professional the smaller units of learning achieved and bodies and a raft of awarding bodies and qualifcation allow people to move between providers, authorities are involved too. And yet, inefective and very with the funding following. occasionally fraudulent provision in both countries needs to be identifed earlier and addressed more robustly. All applicants should also have access to a single, standardised income-contingent Independent and expert pricing loan scheme that allows them to borrow for student contributions across the full range Price is another important area where governments of tertiary qualifcations. Tis should be can play a greater role. Independent pricing authorities, tailored to suit disadvantaged, part-time and equipped with the appropriate skills and data, and mature learners, a major faw in the current working within overarching fnancial parameters set UK system. Te currently highly complex and by the government, could determine the appropriate fragmented systems of loans across the two price for teaching in diferent disciplines and at diferent countries unintentionally distort demand. tertiary qualifcation levels, recognising delivery costs and overheads. Tey could also set the maximum Tere is a growing sense around the world amount to be paid through student contributions, having that the demands of the fourth industrial regard to the expected private beneft. Pricing authorities revolution will require major changes to how could work with local stakeholders, ofering part of the education, training and vocational training fee to be grant funded by the region so the learner pays is delivered. Further and higher education less in felds that are key to local skills. FE are used to institutions now have a small window of prices being set this way, but HE isn’t. opportunity to infuence that change, or have it be done to them. Tis would help take some of the politics out of total tuition fee levels for diferent felds. In Australia such calculations are currently determined from a 1993 Wonkhe is grateful to Stephen Parker formula that inhibits change and is vulnerable to and Mike Rowley of KPMG for sharing lobbying. Te 2012 reforms in England which saw their expertise and examples for this tuition fees triple were predicated on an assumption that article. KPMG’s expertise span many providers would vary their fees, without realising that sectors; to fnd out about how the team education is a positional good where price signals quality. can help you contact Justine Andrew ([email protected])

20— THE WONKHE BRIEFING THE WONKHE BRIEFING Volume 2, Issue 1, November 2018

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