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Generation 2030 Africa

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Generation 2030 Africa GENERATION 2030 AFRICA 2.0 Prioritizing investments in children to reap the demographic dividend This report follows up ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS the firstGeneration Acknowledgements 2030 Africa report, Core report team This report has benefited from valuable inputs by : Justin Forsyth, Laurence published in August David Anthony, Danzhen You, Lucia Hug, From Headquarters many colleagues throughout UNICEF and beyond, Christian Chandy, Paloma Escudero, Hongwei Gao, 2014, which outlined Jan Beise, Yoonie Choi, Sinae Lee and including colleagues from UNICEF’s Regional Offices Mark Hereward, Priscilla Idele, Attila Hancioglu, pivotal changes Anastasia Mshvidobadze for Eastern and Southern Africa, West and Central Rada Noeva, Robert Bain, Claudia Cappa, Liliana in Africa’s child Production management and editing: Africa and the Middle East and Northern Africa, Carvajal, Yadigar Coskun, Martin C Evans, demographics. Anna Mukerjee UNICEF Headquarters and UNICEF country offices Mamadou Saliou Diallo, Chika Hayashi, Julia The report presents in Africa. Particular thanks to Leila Pakkala, Regional Krasevec, Padraic Murphy, Colleen Murray, Vrinda modelling indicating Design and layout Director, Eastern and Southern Africa, Marie-Pierre R. Mehra, Suguru Mizunoya, Nicole Petrowski, that if African nations Design and content strategy: Upasana Young and Cecilia Beatriz Silva Poirer, Regional Director, West and Central Africa Olga Oleszczuk, Tom Slaymaker, Xinxin Yu, Yacouba invest in their and Geert Cappalaere, Regional Director, Middle Djibo Abdou, Matt Brossard, Daniel Kelly, Gemma growing population Data visualization: Upasana Young, Cecilia Beatriz Silva, Sinae Lee, Lucia Hug, East and Northern Africa for their support and Wilson-Clark, Aichatou Diawara-Flambert, Mame of children and young Anastasia Mshvidobadze and Jan Beise guidance throughout the report’s production. Selbee Diouf, Nicola DellArciprete and Henrik people, in particular Copy editing: Alison Raphael Hartmann. in their education, Sincere thanks also go to UNICEF colleagues who and adopt economic made a significant contribution to the report. The authors are grateful to the United Nations policies that foster Population Division for providing the estimates and new jobs, the From Regional and Country Offices:Anna projections that form the basis of the population continent as a whole Baldursdottir, Dina Craissati, Thierry DelvigneJean, analysis of this report. The authors are also grateful could see per capita Arthur van Diesen, Jean Dupraz, James Elder, for support and expertise provided by outside incomes increase Gilles Fagninou, Roumiana Gantcheva, Louise experts R. Scott Moreland, Philip Schellekens, up to four-fold. The Holly, Inoussa Kabore,Ted Maly, Yumi Matsuda, Sayaka Koseki, Thangavel Palanivel, Eunice Mueni, first, crucial step Suzanne Moody, Maharajan Muthu, Patsy Nakell, Alex James Eble and George Nantwi. to achieving this Gustave Nebie, Bo Viktor Nylund, Nicolas Reuge, demographic dividend Tomoko Shibuya, Siddhartha Shrestha, Tsitsi Singizi will be to close the and Iyorlumun Uhaa. gaps that exist within Africa's health and education systems. All reasonable precautions have been taken by UNICEF to verify the information contained in this publication. For corrigenda subsequent to publication, please see www.unicef.org/publications. © United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) Division of Data, Research and Policy October 2017 ISBN: 978-92-806-4918-5 www.unicef.org/publications/index_101219.html For the latest data, please visit <data.unicef.org/resources/generation-2030-africa-2-0> Cover photo: Children from Note on maps: All maps included in this publication are stylized and are not to scale. They do not reflect a position by UNICEF on the legal status of any Jumbe village, in country or area or the delimitation of any frontiers. The final boundary between the Republic of the Sudan and the Republic of South Sudan has not yet Amudat district been determined. of Karamoja, Uganda The assignment of countries or areas to specific groupings is for statistical convenience and does not imply any assumption regarding political or other affiliation of countries or territories by UNICEF. For more details on the classification of countries or areas please see African Union regions as defined by © UNICEF/ the Organization for African Unity in 1976 (CM/Res.464QCXVI) UNI132146/Dyer https://au.int/web/sites/default/files/pages/31829-file-african-union-handbook-2017-edited.pdf. 2 14 30 42 58 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CHAPTER 1 CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 3 APPENDICES 2...Key policy actions Child Closing gaps Policy actions 60... Explanatory notes for 4...Demographic window demographics in Africa’s for investing in the DemDiv model of opportunity in Africa social systems Africa’s children 61...Endnotes 6...Editorial to reap the 64...Demographic indicators 8...Key facts and figures demographic 66...Country tables 10...Key findings dividend GENERATION 2030 AFRICA 2.0 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Prioritizing investments in children to reap the demographic dividend Key policy actions for Generation 2030 Africa 1. Essential Services 2. Skills enhancement 3. Protection Scale up Africa’s essential services Transform Africa's educational, Protect Africa’s children and strengthen health, social skills and vocational learning and women from violence, welfare and protection systems, systems through systems- exploitation and abuse, bringing them up to international strengthening, curriculum especially child marriage and standards, or beyond for countries reform and access to harmful practices; empower already close to meeting them. technology, to enhance learning children and women to outcomes and connectivity and participate fully in community, to match the skills of Africa's workplace and political life; and children and youth to current enhance access to culturally and future labour market needs. sensitive reproductive health services. Upscaling investments 4. Invest in children in children and youth Maximize the use of available resources (domestic and international) to increase investments in Africa’s children and youth, targeting the most effective programmes and population groups with the greatest need. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 Across Africa countries are experiencing varying degrees of rapid population growth African Union Regions Fig. A.1 Population in Africa, by African Union region and by country, 1950–2050 (in millions) Central Africa BDI Burundi CMR Cameroon CAF Central African Republic TCD Chad 400 The bubble size COD Democratic Republic of the Congo DZA 250 indicates the TUN GNQ Equatorial Guinea 200 2,500 MAR GAB Gabon total population per COD 100 DZA EGY COG Congo 50 country (millions) 1,700EGY TUN MAR NER STP Sao Tome and Principe 20 CMR MAR SEN CODCOG EDGZYA BDI COD MLI EGY TCD GIN TGO CMR TZA UGA MAR TUN NER BFA BDI TGO KEN Eastern Africa CMR TCD CMR MLI SSD GHA COG TUN SEN BENSEN MAR SSD CIV RWA COM Comoros 1,200 TCD KEN SOM BFA DZA BDI COD MLI TCD AGO MWI GIN TGO CMR TZA UGA TUN AGO BFA BDI DJI Djibouti TGGINO NER ETHKEN UGA EGY CMRBDI TCD ZWE ETH MDG DZA COD SDN MLI GHA SSD SLE GHA TUN RWA SEN BEN ERI Eritrea MAR SSD BFA ZAF CIV AGO RWA Total TCDZWE KEN SOM MOZ NER AGO MWI ETH Ethiopia ZMB NER ETHZWE UGA NGA population EGY BFA BDI GIN CIV RWA TZA ZWE SSDETH MDG KEN Kenya DZA MOZCOD MWI SDNETH GHA SLE UGA DZA MAR RWA NGA SOM ) GHA ZAF MOZ SOM MDG Madagascar (millions ZWE MOZ 480 NER BEN ZAF EGY ZMB ZAF NGA COD TZA BFA NGA MDG ZWE RWA TZASDN SSD KEN MUS Mauritius MOZ MWI ETH CIV ZMB MDG UGA CIV TZA SDN DZA MAR KEN NGA MWI SOM RWA Rwanda MOZ GHA GIN MOZ SOM SEN AGO BEN ZAF ZMB SYC Seychelles EGY ZAF SDN UGA ZAFBEN COD TZA NGA MDG SDN KEN MLI ZMB MDG NGA CIV TZA SDN SOM Somalia EGY KEN MWI 230 MOZ ETH GIN COD SEN AGO ZMB SSD South Sudan ZAF ETH ZAF SDN UGA BEN MLI SDN Sudan NGA EGY NGA 2030 ETH UGA Uganda COD 2050 ZAF ETH 2016 TZA United Republic of Tanzania NGA 1980 Northern Africa DZA Algeria 1950 EGY Egypt LBY Libya MRT Mauritania Central Africa Eastern Africa Northern Africa Southern Africa Western Africa MAR Morocco TUN Tunisia 2050 Southern Africa 2050 800 AGO Angola 2050 2050 2050 BWA Botswana 760 340 330 290 LSO Lesotho MWI Malawi 1950 1950 1950 1950 1950 56 44 34 70 MOZ Mozambique 24 NAM Namibia ZAF South Africa Total population by African Union region, 1950, 2050 (in millions) SWZ Swaziland ZMB Zambia ZWE Zimbabwe Western Africa BEN Benin Currently By 2030 BFA Burkina Faso By 2050 By 2100 CPV Cabo Verde close to Africa's under-18 CIV Côte d'Ivoire 40% 50% GMB Gambia 50% population will GHA Ghana increase by nearly of the world's of the world's GIN Guinea of Africa's population children under 18 GNB Guinea-Bissau children under 18 LBR Liberia are children under 18 170 million will live in Africa will live in Africa MLI Mali NER Niger NGA Nigeria SEN Senegal Note: ISO 3166 is used for country codes as determined by the International Organization for Standardization. SLE Sierra Leone TGO Togo Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision (UN WPP), United Nations, New York, 2017. 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY THE DEMOGRAPHIC WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY The term ‘demographic dividend’ refers to the economic classified as ‘pre-dividend’ countries, since the window of Africa's demographic transition is underway growth that can be achieved by having proportionally more the opportunity for accelerated economic growth has not yet FIG. A.2 Composition of total dependency ratio (child and old- 1 working age people as a share of the population. It is driven opened due to ongoing rapid population growth, resulting age) in Africa, 1950–2100 (Number of persons aged 0–14 and 65 by the demographic transition of a country’s population. in a high child dependency ratio. Two thirds of countries in and over per 100 persons 15–64 years) As mortality and fertility decline, the population’s age Africa (36 countries) are in this phase.
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