Visitor Economy and Transport in the North of England Final Report Transport for the North
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Visitor Economy and Transport in the North of England Final Report Transport for the North July 2021 Notice This document and its contents have been prepared and are intended solely as information for Transport for the North and use in relation to Visitor Economy and Transport in the North of England Atkins Limited assumes no responsibility to any other party in respect of or arising out of or in connection with this document and/or its contents. This document has 186 pages including the cover. Document history Document title: Final Report Revision Purpose description Originated Checked Reviewed Authorised Date 1.0 First Draft of Final Report HG, JW, FHM EH, LB MS 28/05/21 for comment by TfN and JB, DC, Stakeholders MS 2.0 Second Draft of Final MS, JW, MS TD MS 12/07/21 Report following HG, JB comments from TfN and Stakeholders 3.0 Revised Version of Final MS MS FHM MS 26/07/21 Report following receipt of final comments Client signoff Client Transport for the North Project Visitor Economy and Transport in the North of England Job number 5203319 Atkins | Visitor Economy and Transport in the North of England Page 2 of 186 Contents Chapter Page 1. Introduction 8 1.1. Context and Aims 8 1.2. Background to this Commission 10 1.3. Key Definitions 12 Evidence Base 13 2. Literature Review 14 2.1. Introduction 14 2.2. The Visitor Economy 14 2.3. Strategies and Policies 17 2.4. Visitor Segmentation and Market Potential 20 2.5. Transport 21 2.6. Economics, Employment and Skills 27 2.7. Conclusions 31 3. Visitor Economy Profile 32 3.1. Methodology 32 3.2. Supply side 35 3.3. Demand side 50 4. Visitor Economy Importance and Value 70 4.1. Methodology 70 4.2. Supply-side economic value 70 4.3. Demand-side economic value 73 4.4. Conclusion 81 5. Visitor Economy Transport Profile 82 5.1. Methodology 82 5.2. Overarching Domestic Travel Patterns in the North of England 83 5.3. Domestic Visitor Economy Travel Patterns and Demand 87 5.4. International Visitor Economy Travel Patterns and Demand 103 5.5. Accessibility Analysis 117 5.6. Conclusions 129 Primary Research Findings 130 6. Research with Residents, Visitors, and Transport Users 131 6.1. Introduction 131 6.2. Methodology 131 6.3. Findings 132 6.4. Conclusions 141 7. Stakeholder Engagement 142 7.1. Introduction and Methodology 142 7.2. Findings 143 7.3. Conclusions 152 Atkins | Visitor Economy and Transport in the North of England Page 3 of 186 Recommendations and Conclusions 153 8. Conclusions and Headline Findings 154 9. Recommendations 156 9.1. Introduction 156 9.2. Recommendations 156 9.3. Summary and Key Actions 163 10. Next Steps 166 Appendices 167 168 A.1. TfGM Covid Travel Personas 2020/2021 168 171 B.1. Breakdown of the weightings assigned to each sub sector of the visitor economy 171 B.2. The North’s Visitor Economy Assets 172 B.3. Supply side 174 B.4. Demand side 178 185 C.1. National Rail Passenger Survey 185 Atkins | Visitor Economy and Transport in the North of England Page 4 of 186 Tables Table 2-1 - GoLakes Travel Scheme Initiatives and Lessons Learnt 22 Table 3-1 - Number of businesses in the North that provide accommodation services 44 Table 3-2 - International day visitors in the North 53 Table 3-3 - Top 10 towns in the North with the highest international overnight visits 58 Table 3-4 - Total visit numbers by region 63 Table 3-5 - Domestic day visitor spend (£) 2019 63 Table 3-6 - International day visitor spend (£) 2019 64 Table 3-7 - Domestic overnight visitor spend (£) 2019 64 Table 3-8 - International overnight visitor spend data (£) 2019 65 Table 4-1 - Summary of regional employment in the visitor economy 70 Table 4-2 - Estimated direct GVA impact value for the visitor economy by region (£) 2019 71 Table 4-3 - Distribution of direct GVA by Local Authority (£) 2019 72 Table 4-4 - Total spend of all visitors (£) 2019 73 Table 4-5 - Total Net GVA impacts of the North’s Visitor Economy 77 Table 5-1 - Rail Journeys by TOC and Purpose 86 Table 5-2 - Tram Journeys by Network and Purpose 87 Table 5-3 - Share of selected modes for long distance journeys to/from the North 91 Table 5-4 - Share of selected modes for long distance journeys within the North 95 Table 5-5 - Comparison of Distance Travelled to/from a Northern Holiday Base and All Trips in England 97 Table 5-6 – Port of arrival amongst international visitors making a direct trip to the North 104 Table 5-7 - Mode used when travelling to Manchester Airport 105 Table 5-8 - Mode used when travelling to Newcastle International Airport 108 Table 5-9 - Mode used when travelling to Liverpool John Lennon Airport 111 Table 5-10 - Mode used when travelling to Leeds Bradford Airport 114 Table 6-1 - ‘Which Emoji?’ focus group activity results 133 Table 7-1 - Stakeholder sentiment toward potential post-Covid transport solutions 150 Table C-1 - Rail Journeys by TOC and Purpose (All TOCs) 185 Atkins | Visitor Economy and Transport in the North of England Page 5 of 186 Figures Figure 2-1 - Use of selected transport modes during the Covid-19 pandemic 23 Figure 3-1 – The North’s Main Visitor Economy Assets 36 Figure 3-2 - Businesses in the visitor sector by local authority 37 Figure 3-3 – Top 10 local authorities with highest shares of visitor related businesses 38 Figure 3-4 - Broad sector break down of businesses in the North’s visitor economy 39 Figure 3-5 - Employment in the visitor sector by local authority 41 Figure 3-6 - Local authorities with highest shares of visitor related employment as a share of total 42 Figure 3-7 - Broad sector break down of the North’s visitor economy by employment 43 Figure 3-8 - The North of England's Primary Retail Offer 47 Figure 3-9 - Domestic day visits to the North by month (millions) 50 Figure 3-10 - Domestic day visits to local authorities across the North 51 Figure 3-11 - Domestic overnight visits to the North by month (thousands) 54 Figure 3-12 - Domestic overnight visitors to local authorities across the North 55 Figure 3-13 - Month of visit by purpose for international visits (thousands) 59 Figure 3-14 - Map of the international overnight visits to Counties across the North 60 Figure 3-15 - Breakdown of the international overnight visitors to the North by trip purpose 62 Figure 3-16 - Main reason for visit amongst international overnight visitors to the North 62 Figure 4-1 - Total Direct GVA derived from spend of all international visits, (£) 2019 74 Figure 4-2 - Total Direct GVA derived from spend of all domestic visits, (£) 2019 75 Figure 4-3 - Total Direct GVA derived from spend of all visits, (£) 2019 76 Figure 4-4 - Regional tourism spending across England’s regions 79 Figure 4-5 - Share of total output attributable to the Visitor Economy (%) 80 Figure 5-1 - Trips Per Person, Per Year – by Journey Purpose and Origin Region 83 Figure 5-2 - Trips Per Person, Per Year – by Main Mode 83 Figure 5-3 - Average Trip Length (Miles) 84 Figure 5-4 - Average Trip Time (minutes) 85 Figure 5-5 - Percentage of households which do not own a car 85 Figure 5-6 - Top 10 Long Distance Flows to/from the North 88 Figure 5-7 - Purpose of Long-Distance Trips to the North 89 Figure 5-8 - Most reported Trip Purpose amongst visitors to the North from other parts of England 90 Figure 5-9 - Top 15 Long Distance Flows within the North 92 Figure 5-10 - Purpose of Long Distance Trips within the North 93 Figure 5-11 - Most reported Trip Purpose amongst visitors travelling within the North 94 Figure 5-12 – Trip Distance to/from a Holiday Base in the North of England 96 Figure 5-13 - Trips Per Person, Per Year – by Distance Travelled 96 Figure 5-14 - Proportion of trips to/from a Holiday Base undertaken by Walking 98 Figure 5-15 - Proportion of trips to/from a Holiday Base undertaken by Cycling 99 Figure 5-16 - Proportion of trips to/from a Holiday Base undertaken by Public Transport 100 Figure 5-17 - Most Popular Rail Flows from London to the North 101 Figure 5-18 - Most Popular Rail Flows from other regions and nations to the North 102 Figure 5-19 - Proportion of Indirect Trips to the North 103 Figure 5-20 - Origin of foreign business visitors departing from Manchester Airport 106 Figure 5-21 - Origin of foreign leisure visitors departing from Manchester Airport 107 Figure 5-22 - Origin of foreign business visitors departing from Newcastle International Airport 109 Atkins | Visitor Economy and Transport in the North of England Page 6 of 186 Figure 5-23 - Origin of foreign leisure visitors departing from Newcastle International Airport 110 Figure 5-24 - Origin of foreign business visitors departing from Liverpool John Lennon Airport 112 Figure 5-25 - Origin of foreign leisure visitors departing from Liverpool John Lennon Airport 113 Figure 5-26 - Origin of foreign business visitors departing from Leeds Bradford Airport 115 Figure 5-27 - Origin of foreign leisure visitors departing from Leeds Bradford Airport 116 Figure 5-28 - Public transport accessibility to Manchester Airport (Do Minimum) 118 Figure 5-29 - Public transport accessibility to Manchester Airport (Do Something) 119 Figure 5-30 - Public transport accessibility to Scarborough (Do Minimum) 121 Figure 5-31 - Public transport accessibility to Scarborough (Do Something) 121 Figure 5-32 - Public transport accessibility to Keswick (Do Minimum) 122 Figure 5-33 - Public transport accessibility to Keswick (Do Something) 122 Figure 5-34 – Weekday daytime bus service frequency, July 2019 123 Figure 5-35 – Weekday daytime bus service frequency, January 2020 124 Figure 5-36 – Weekday evening bus service frequency, July 2019 125 Figure 5-37 – Weekday evening bus service frequency, January 2020 126 Figure 5-38 – Saturday daytime bus service frequency, July 2019 127 Figure 5-39 - Saturday daytime bus service frequency, January 2020 128 Figure 6-1 - Most popular destinations in the North among study participants 134 Atkins | Visitor Economy and Transport in the North of England Page 7 of 186 1.