Keys to Understanding and Expanding the Market for Passive House— A Marketer’s Perspective
Peter Troast, Founder & CEO NAPHC17 Conference Seattle September 23, 2017 What We’ll Discuss
1 A FRAMEWORK FOR ACHIEVING SCALE
2 SIZING THE MARKET OPPORTUNITY—SOME “DATA"
3 HIGH PERFORMANCE BUILDING IN CONTEXT
4 WHO’S BUYING HOME PERFORMANCE/HIGH PERFORMANCE?
5 PASSIVE HOUSE: THE BRAND
6 OTHER IMPLICATIONS & DISCUSSION
10/19/15 2
The Data Challenge
• Little valid data on buyers
• Passive House, so far, is niche/elite
• Self serving junk data from NAHB, Realtors, etc.
• Old studies—very different energy prices
• Best data is regional. Valid nationally?
10/7/17 5
HOW DO WE EXPAND THE MARKET FOR HIGH PERFORMANCE/PASSIVE BUILDINGS? $150/Sq Ft Framework for Achieving Scale
Price Point The Preferred that Broadens “Brand” in the Market Niche
Strategy to Capture the Opportunity
10/7/17 9 SIZING THE MARKET OPPORTUNITY
January 2016 Big Market?
10/7/17 13 Survey Data. n=1000 Zero Net Energy Homes
US CAGR 43.1% December 2015 How Big the High Performance Opportunity?
Some 2016 Data HERS Ratings: 207,000 Generic CustomersHPwES Retrofits: 80,000 Green EnergyStar Homes: 93,000 Zero Energy Ready Homes: 1000 Certified Passive House: ~200 “Performance”
High Performance
10/7/17 16 GOOGLE TRENDS: PUTTING HIGH PERFORMANCE BUILDINGS IN CONTEXT Learning from Google Search
10/19/15 18 Learning from Google Search
10/19/15 19 Google Trends shows how often a particular search-term is entered relative to the total search-volume across a region.
10/7/17 20 Green Building
10/7/17 21 Energy Star Homes
10/7/17 22 Energy Efficiency
10/7/17 23 Home Performance
10/7/17 24 Passive House
10/7/17 25 Net Zero/Zero-Energy Building
10/7/17 26 Net Zero vs Passive House (topics)
10/7/17 27 Energy Star Homes vs Passive House
10/7/17 28 But…It’s All Relative
10/7/17 29 “skate to where the puck is going to be”
10/7/17 30 Facebook Interests Data March 2017
Green Living Climate Change Solar Energy Air Cooling Retrofitting Green Building Spray Foam (Insulation) Particulates Building Science Tankless Water Heating Building Performance Healthy Home Blower Door 0 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000
10/7/17 31 WHO IS BUYING HIGH PERFORMANCE HOMES? SOME DEMOGRAPHICS (such as they are) DATA
10/7/17 33 McKinsey Segmentation
Unlocking Energy Efficiency in the US Economy, 2009
10/7/17 34 CA CPUC/Opinion Dynamics 2009
http://energycenter.org/sites/default/files/docs/nav/programs/swmeo/OpinionDynamicsFinalSegmentationReport.pdf 10/7/17 35 The Wisdom of Sam Rashkin
“Actually I work hard to not let Data get in the way of Wisdom. We know who the next home buyers are with or without the data…78 million gen-y young buyers with massive pent-up demand from delaying commitments, living with parents, and accumulating resources after assuming $1 trillion of college debt. More importantly this is the demographic that demands technical innovation and is demonstrating incredible willingness to pay more for a better experience.” Sam Rashkin, Chief Architect, Building Technologies Office, DOE July 2015
10/7/17 36 State of the Nation’s Housing, 2016 (6-22-16)
10/7/17 37 Waiting for the Millenials
10/7/17 38 High Performance Home Buyers
AGE DEMOGRAPHICS OTHER CATEGORIES
Baby Boomers—Last Home Academics Phenomenon Technologists (Engineers, Gen X (35-55 yrs) Medical, Technology, Software)
Millennials (15-35 yrs) Upscale/Wealthy
Green/Left Leaning
Health Focused
First Home
10/19/15 39 High Performance Home Buyers
AGE DEMOGRAPHICS OTHER CATEGORIES
Academics
Gen X Millennials Technologists (Engineers, Medical, Technology, Software)
Upscale/Wealthy
Green/Left Leaning
Boomers Health Focused
First Home
10/19/15 40 THE BRAND CHALLENGE The Brand (and Label) Challenge
NAMES
Green
Sustainable
Low Energy
Healthy Home
High Performance
10/19/15 42 The Brand (and Label) Challenge
NAMES CERTIFICATIONS
Green PHIUS+ 2015 Energy Star Sustainable LEED Low Energy Green Globes Living Building Challenge Healthy Home Nat’l Green Bldg Std WELL Bldg Std High Performance NZEB Sites Energy Fit Earthcraft Pearl Certified Etc, Etc, Etc
10/19/15 43 The Brand (and Label) Challenge
NAMES CERTIFICATIONS “BRANDS”
Green Energy Star Passive House LEED Sustainable Net Zero Green Globes Low Energy Living Building Challenge Deep Energy Retrofit
Healthy Home Nat’l Green Bldg Std Pretty Good House WELL Bldg Std High Performance NZEB Sites Energy Fit Earthcraft Pearl Certified Etc, Etc, Etc 10/19/15 44 We’re Not Making it Easy
Zero Net Energy (ZNE) Net Zero Energy (NZE) Zero Energy Ready (ZER) Zero Energy Building (ZEB) Zero Energy (ZE) Zero Carbon (ZC) Ultra Low Energy Building (ULEB) Deep Energy Retrofit (DER)
10/7/17 45 Too Singularly Focused on Energy?
OTHER BENEFITS
Healthy
Low Operating Cost
Aging in Place
Comfort
Durability
10/7/17 46 Dissonance?
Building Tightness vs Healthy Home
10/7/17 47 Simplicity vs High Tech
Do We Have Dueling Messages? Baby Boomers vs Millenials
Last-home William Techie Tom
10/7/17 48 QUESTIONS?
Peter Troast [email protected]
207.847.3644