European Political Science Association 6Th Annual Conference Programme

European Political Science Association 6th Annual Conference Programme

Square-Brussels Meeting Centre Square-Brussels Meeting Centre rue Mont des Arts, 1000 rue Mont des Arts, 1000 Brussels, Belgium Brussels, Belgium

June 23 – June 25 2016 Brussels, June 23 - 25 2016

European Political Science Association

Members of the EPSA Council 2016-2017

Members Elect Orit Kedar (Hebrew University of Jerusalem) Anja Neundorf (University of Nottingham) Heike Klüver (University of Hamburg) Gerald Schneider (University of Konstanz) Mary Stegmaier (University of Missouri) Micael Castanheira (Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management) Indridi Indridason (UC Riverside) Gail McElroy (Trinity College Dublin)

Ex-officio Members

President: Fabio Franchino (State University of Milan) Treasurer/ Vice-President: Ken Benoit (London School of Economics and Political Science) Executive Director: Thomas Plümper (Vienna University of Economics) Chair of Programme Committee: Ray Duch (University of Oxford)

PSRM editor: Vera Troeger (University of Warwick)

2016 Programme Committee

Chair: Ray Duch (University of Oxford) Co-chair: Mark Kayser (Hertie School)

Section Chairs:

Christian Breunig (University of Konstanz) Michel Colaresi (Michigan State University) Ruth Dassonneville (Universite de Montreal) Andy Eggers (University of Oxford) Anja Neundorf (University of Nottingham) Georg Vanberg (Duke University)

Table of Contents

Venue Information……………………………………………….……………………………………………….4

Wifi Information……………………………………………………………………………………………………6

Exhibitor and Meeting Areas…………………………………………………………………………………6

Receptions and Meetings………………………………………………………………………………………7

Conference Overview…………….………………………………………………………………………………8

Academic Programme………….…………….………………………………………………………………..10

Index…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….53

Restaurants in Walking Distance…………………………………………………………………………..62

Brussels Card Information…………………………………………………………………………………….64

Venue Information

Square – Brussels Meeting Centre

4/3/2016 Square - Brussels Meeting Centre - Google Maps

Square - Brussels Meeting Centre

Square – Brussels Meeting Centre rue Mont des Arts, 1000 Brussels, Belgium www.square-brussels.com

https://www.google.fr/maps/place/Square+-+Brussels+Meeting+Centre/@50.8438848,4.3564732,18z/data=!4m2!3m1!1s0x47c3c4873c654411:0x68314d65acca... 1/1 5

Wireless Access WI-FI

CODE: EPSA

Password: epsa16!

SSID (Network Name): square-guest

How to access to our Wi-Fi network:

1) Enable your Wi-Fi 2) Join the SSID (Network Name): “square-guest” 3) If not automatically asked by your computer, open a web browser 4) Try to connect to any website and then you’ll be automatically redirected to the authentication page. 5) Enter the login & password 6) Tick the box near the disclaimer to accept it and click on the locker icon. 7) You are connected to Internet

Exhibitor and Meeting Areas

O Exhibitors area is in Hall 0400 O Work rooms are Room 215 and Room 316 O Coffee, beverages and snacks are sold in the Circle Room and Hall 0400 O Work rooms are Room 215 and Room 316

7th Annual Conference

22-24 June 2017

Palazzo delle Stellin

Milan

Receptions and Public Meetings Business Meetings

Thursday 23th June Thursday 23rd June 12:00 EPSA Council Meeting, Meeting Studio 18:15 Presidential Address and EPSA general 201 B (members only) assembly, Cooper Hall (all welcome) 13.00 Women Leadership in Foreign Policy, 19:00-21:00 EPSA Welcome Reception (Cash Meeting Studio 202 (by invitation only) Bar), Magritte and Silver Foyer (all welcome) th Friday 24 June Friday 24th June 8:00 European Union Politics board meeting, 19:00 Brussels City Hall Reception and PSRM Meeting Studio 201 B (members only) Awards (all welcome, please bring your 12.00 (SAGE) Research & Politics Editors and conference badge) Associate Editors, Meeting Studio 202 (members only) 12:30 PSRM board meeting, Meeting Studio 201 B (members only)

Saturday 25th June 8:00 Italian Political Science Review board meeting, Meeting Studio 201 B (members only)

Conference Overview: Panel Numbers and Venue Rooms

Thursday

Room 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 11:45 13:45 15:45 18:00 Studio 204 103 104 105 114 Studio 206 203 204 115 201 Studio 211 128 218 222 234 Studio 212 228 229 230 241 Studio 213 243 244 245 248 Studio 214 255 257 258 260 Studio 216 302 303 312 323 Studio 311 401 402 403 411 Studio 312 506 507 509 508 Studio 313 701 527 529 526 Studio 314 717 702 704 550 Studio 315 525 718 724 719

Friday

Room 8:30 10:30 12:45 14:45 16:45 10:15 12:30 14:30 16:30 18:45 Studio 204 106 123 119 722 126 Studio 206 117 202 212 127 207 Studio 211 209 211 232 213 236 Studio 212 231 224 247 233 305 Studio 213 246 311 261 250 315 Studio 214 259 320 307 262 409 Studio 216 309 502 405 313 511 Studio 311 404 513 520 406 517 Studio 312 516 518 533 521 519 Studio 313 531 530 707 541 532 Studio 314 705 703 253 709 714 Studio 315 723 720 725 721

Saturday

Room 9:00 11:00 13:00 15:15 10:45 12:45 15:00 17:00 Studio 204 112 111 129 223 Studio 206 208 113 205 227 Studio 211 226 215 219 242 Studio 212 237 214 238 254 Studio 213 252 239 306 301 Studio 214 263 109 317 524 Studio 216 316 265 410 712 Studio 311 501 321 504 716 Studio 312 522 503 515 107 Studio 313 542 523 535 Studio 314 713 711 505 Studio 315 726 715 322

Academic Programme The timing of electoral volatility: A panel study on the impact of political sophistication and media effects in Belgium Dieter Stiers

Thursday, 23.06.2016 Political talk and the stability of voting intentions during election campaigns

Anne Schäfer

10:00-11:45

103 128 The European Union Electorate Gender and the Representation of Women Th. 10:00 Th. 10:00 Meeting Studio 204 Meeting Studio 211

Chair: Heike Klüver Chair: Michael Courtney Discussant: Christopher Wratil Discussant: Diana Elena Burlacu

How European Commissioners use Speeches to How gender bias and statutory quotas impact take Political Positions the democratic representation ensured by Renke Deckarm and Kira Killermann women - Evidence from three European Parliament elections In Search for an Electoral Link between the EU Silje Synnøve and Lyder Hermansen Electorate(s) and the EU proposals: Reality or Wishful Thinking? Gender and Politics in Northeast Asia: Legislative Magda Giurcanu and Petia Kostadinova Patterns and Performance of Female Legislators in South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan Uneven Rainbows: Why EU Member States Jaemin Shim Adopt or Reject Gay Marriage Scott Siegel and Alice Wang An Easy Concession or Meaningful Representation? Minority Women in French Voting Behavior in the Council of the EU: The Politics Influence of National Parliaments Amanda Garrett Philippe van Gruisen and Christophe Crombez Understanding gender dimension of Turkey’s conservative-liberal welfare system: Reinvention 203 of the working `underclass’, The Discussions on Voter Volatility the Example of female domestic workers Th. 10:00 Bünyamin Esen Meeting Studio 206

Chair: Lucas Leemann 228 Discussant: Michael Meffert Protest and Revolt Th. 10:00 Fragmented outlets, fragmented voters? Meeting Studio 212 Carol Galais and Ana Sofía Cardenal Chair: Andrew Long The stability of electoral consideration sets: Discussant: Jonathan Chapman theory and practice Roderik Rekker and Martin Rosema

Who Revolts? Revisiting the Social Origins of Is Change (Always) Good? The Electoral Democratic Revolutions Consequences of Party Leadership Changes Sirianne Dahlum, Carl Henrik Knutsen, and Tore Hande Mutlu-Eren, Zeynep Somer-Topcu, and Wig Daniel Weitzel

Mass Media and the Pacification of Anti- Poverty, partisanship, and vote buying Systemic Political Contention Mogens K. Justesen and Lugi Manzetti Justin Murphy Conditionality and Coercion in Hungarian Do protests increase opposition to Elections authoritarianism? The effect of the 2011-2012 Isabela Mares and Lauren Young electoral protests on Russian public opinion Katerina Tertytchnaya and Tomila Lankina A Discouraging Note on the Use of Encourage- ment Designs to Study Sequential Decision- Censorship of the Arab Spring in MENA Media Making Dumitru Ciocan and Bruno Wüest Marc Meredith

243 302 Anger and Political Engagement Information, Strategy, and Conflict Th. 10:00 Th. 10:00 Meeting Studio 213 Meeting Studio 216

Chair: Megan Metzger Discussant: Markus Wagner Chair: Patrick Le Bihan Discussant: Richard Van Weelden Anti-Discrimination Laws, Policy Knowledge, and Political Engagement An Informational Theory of Alliance Formation Conrad Ziller and Marc Helbling Francesco Squintani and Raghul Srivanasan

Apathy or Anger? How Crime Experience Affects What the Enemy Knows: Common Knowledge Individual Vote Intention in Latin America and and the Rationality of War the Caribbean Thomas Chadefaux Sarah Berens and Mirko Dallendörfer Information Disclosure in Conflicts The Paradox of Confrontation: Experimental Marco Serena Evidence on the Effects of Protest Cassilde Schwartz Monitoring, Spying and Information Projection in Crisis Bargaining Emotions and Political Tolerance Kristof Madarasz, Adam Meirowitz and Luis Rayo Cengiz Erisen Armed Peace, the Role of Information 255 Massimo Morelli and Francesco Squintani The Functional Borders of Elections Th. 10:00 Meeting Studio 214 401 Data Distributions and Estimation Chair: Robert Erikson Th. 10:00 Discussant: Arturas Rozenas Meeting Studio 311

Chair: Dominik Hangartner Meeting Studio 313 Discussant: Andreas Murr Chair: Markus Tepe Two Wrongs Make a Right: Misclassification in Discussant: Inaki Sagarzazu Binary-Outcome Data from Multiple Sources Scott Cook, Raymond Carroll, and Samiran Sinha Taking a Cue from the Experts: Public Opinion Change on Financial Regulation Automated versus hand-coding methods: Nathan M. Jensen and Rene Lindstaedt Identifying policy argumentation in parliamentary speeches Heterogeneity in Local Candidate Effects: Ashley Thornton and David Sylvan Evidence From a Large‐Scale Election Study Daniel Rubenson Poisson Inverse Gaussian Regression for Long- Tailed Count Distributions Electoral Politics and the European Union Brian J Fogarty Christina Schneider

Estimating counterfactual federal-level election Eqilibrium Taxation under Income Uncertainty results Alexei Zakharov Verena Mack and Susumu Shikano

717 506 International Agreements and Institutions The Age of Corruption Th. 10:00 Th. 10:00 Meeting Studio 314 Meeting Studio 312

Chair: Kerim Kavakli Chair: Adriana Bunea Discussant: Zarina Burkadze Discussant: Faisal Ahmed Screening for Losers: Trade Institutions and Autocratic Linkage, the Duration of Sanctions, Information And the Survival of Dictators Jason Davis Alexander Schmotz, Oisín Tansey and Jonathan Golub Political economy of multilateral trade policy: Explaining the EU and the US’ compliance at Breaking the Law to Win Reelection: Corruption, WTO dispute settlement and the impact of Red Tape, and Electoral Accountability global value chains (GVCs) Pablo Fernandez-Vazquez Aydin Yildirim

Corruption, Anticorruption, and the Composition Agenda Setting in the United Nations General of Ruling Coalitions Assembly Robert Grafstein and Rongbin Han Courtenay R. Conrad and Nathan W. Monroe

Understanding the cycle of electoral violence: On the Relationship of R2P and the ICC: Is it Evidence from Africa Truly Win-Win? Sarah Birch and Ruben Ruiz-Rufino Ruben Reike

701 525 Public Opinion Formation Regional Politics and Decentralization Th. 10:00 Th. 10:00

Meeting Studio 315 Enfranchisement of the Young and Redistribution - Evidence from India Dominic Ponattu Chair: Daniel Pemstein Discussant: Jochen Müller 204 The Relative Importance of Information Sources Left-Right Politics to Sub-National Policymakers Th. 12:00 Cynthia Jackson-Elmoore, Jingyi Zhang and Frank Meeting Studio 206 Lawrence

Performance voting in asymmetric decentralised Chair: Rene Lindstaedt states Discussant: Jae-Jae Spoon Sandra León and Lluís Orriols What is left and who is right? Using structural Are regional elections second-order? A content topic modelling to explore candidates’ analysis of campaign tweets in Belgium. conceptualization of political ideology Nicolas Bouteca, Evelien D'heer and Steven Markus Tepe, Michael Jankowski and Sebastian Lannoo Schneider

Local elites and the distribution of government What is Left and Right? What real politicians funds think Emanuel Emil Coman Marcelo Jenny, Wolfgang C. Müller

Are the Rich on the Right? Wealth and Attitudes towards Redistribution Bjoern Bremer

Thursday 12:00-13:45 218 104 The Economy and the Electorate The Fiscal Foundations of Inequality Th. 12:00 Th. 12:00 Meeting Studio 211 Meeting Studio 204 Chair: David Weitzel Discussant: Jose Fernandez-Albertos Chair: Francesco Squintani Discussant: Mark Hallerberg Claiming or Blaming? How Parties’ Emphasize Issues in Response to Economic Up- and Fiscal Innovation in Non-Democratic Regimes: Downturns Examining the adoption of income taxes in Nicolas Merz and Tarik Abou-Chadi Imperial Germany and Prussia Isabela Mares and Didac Queralt The Long Shadow of the Past: The Persistence of Tax progressivity, ethnic diversity, and support Economic Failure on Electoral Fortunes for redistribution Mark Kayser and Liam McGrath Sergi Pardos-Prado and Carla Xena Trade Competition and Vote Choice: The Neo- Origins of Wealth Equality Protectionist Cleavage in European Politics Kenneth Scheve and David Stasavage Piero Stanig and Italo Colantone

229 Chair: Stephen Meserve The Uncertain Voter Discussant: Sebastian Popa Th. 12:00 Meeting Studio 212 Affective polarization and left-right polarization: different determinants, different effects? Chair: Nasos Roussias Markus Wagner Discussant: Mathieu Turgeon What favors the congruence between citizens Uncertain Ideal Points and Vote Choice and their governments? Multi-dimensional Joan Serra ideological congruence and party systems. Christian Stecker, Jan Rosset and Sebastian Dimensionality, Institutional Contexts, and Adrian Popa Ideological Congruence between Parties and Voters Pathologies of the Politically Engaged Citizen Royce Carroll and Hiroki Kubo David Fortunato and Matthew V. Hibbing Reflecting the Public Interest? How European Cognitive Mobilization and Voter Heterogeneity News Media Cover Public Opinion Cues on EU Martin Schultze Legislative Politics. Iskander De Bruycker The Generation Gap in Political Knowledge Henry Milner and Eric Guntermann 303 Bargaining for Peace 244 Th. 12:00 The Ideological Voter Meeting Studio 216 Th. 12:00 Meeting Studio 213 Chair: Marco Serena Discussant: David Sylvan Chair: Florian Foos Discussant: Erica Edwards Grasping the Minds of Global Audience: Survey Experiments in the USA and South Korea on Multi-dimensional Policy Preferences in 2015 UK Sino-Japanese Diplomatic and Military General Election: A Conjoint Analysis Confrontation Akitaka Matsuo and Seonghui Lee Atsushi Tago, Kazunori Inamasu and Shoko Kohama Ideological Identity and Voting: Group Loyalty or Personal Interest? Bargaining, Enforcement, and Civil War Mark Pickup, Eline de Rooij and Erik Kimbrough Resolution Vibeke Wøien Hansen, Helge Holtermann, Jon EU Issue Voting or Party Following? The Hovi,and Tatjana Stankovic Importance of EU Issues in National Elections Reconsidered Peace Durability, ICTs and Peacekeeping: James Wilhelm Technology investments and post-conflict economic growth through peacekeeping operations 257 Charles Martin-Shields and Nicholas Bodanac Citizen-Elite Congruence Th. 12:00 Conciliatory Statements and the Use of Force in Meeting Studio 214 Militarised Interstate Disputes Griffin Leonard

Rikhil Bhavnani and Noam Lupu

402 Fiscal policy rules and credit boom-bust cycles Measurement and Estimation Estrella Garces and Andreas Kern Th. 12:00 Meeting Studio 311 527 Chair: Brian J Fogarty The Long-Term Consequences of Investment in Discussant: Martin Elff Education Th. 12:00 Less is more? How demographic sample weights Meeting Studio 313 can improve public opinion estimates based on Twitter data. Chair: Yoshiharu Kobayashi Pablo Barbera Discussant: Jonas Bunte

Estimating opinion polling house effects in Pre-Distribution, Temptation and Political Greece: A Bayesian approach Sophistication Roula Nezi and Kostas Gemenis Soenke Ehret

Improving Measurement of Corruption: The Political Economy of Private Education and Multilevel Regression and Poststratification in Labor Market Risks New Contexts and New Populations Inyoung Cho Noah Buckley Public Opinion, Trust, and the Social Investment MRP for Religious Minorities: Estimating State: Evidence from a New Comparative Survey Religious Diversity in Europe Marius R. Busemeyer, Julian L. Garritzmann and Richard Traunmüller and Christopher Claassen Erik Neimanns

Higher Education Tuition Fees and Socio- 507 Economic Inequality The Politics of Credit and Currencies Julian L. Garritzmann Th. 12:00 Meeting Studio 312 702 Chair: Manuele Citi Fragmented Authority Discussant: Nicole Baerg Th. 12:00 Meeting Studio 314 Exchange rate shocks and household exposure to foreign currency debt: Evidence from the Chair: Alexei Zakharov surprise Swiss franc revaluation Discussant: Alexei Zakharov John Ahlquist, Marc Copelovitch and Stefanie Walter Power-Centralization and Local Electoral Accountability: Evidence from Russia Revisiting the “Good Housekeeping Seal of Arturas Rozenas Approval” Hypothesis: How Do Bond Investors Perceive Exchange Rate Policies of Emerging Fiscal Capacity and Pareto Efficiency: How Markets? Failure to Tax the Poor Can Hurt the Poor Jana Grittersova Jason Davis

Oil Windfalls and the Political Resource Curse: Accountability in Multiparty Contests Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Brazil Andrew Eggers

Biometric Identification Machine Failure and Electoral Fraud in a Competitive Democracy Miriam Golden

718 Legislative Dynamics Th. 12:00 Meeting Studio 315

Chair: Sven-Oliver Proksch Discussant: Lawrence Rothenberg

Drafting Tunisia’s Constitution: Tensions between constituent power and constituted power James Sater

Information Aggregation in Legislatures Justin Valasek, Tomás Rodriguez Barraquer, Rune Midjord

Agendas, Solutions, and Legislative Organization Jonathan Lewallen and Scott Moser

Lobbying when Earmarks are Limited Christopher Cotton, Bryan K. Richter, and Jeffrey F. Timmons

Thursday 14:00-15:45 The Political Geography of Government Formation 105 Albert Falcó-Gimeno SupraNational Institutions Th. 14:00 Meeting Studio 204 222 Political Careers Th. 14:00 Chair: Matthias Ecker-Ehrhardt Meeting Studio 211 Discussant: Heike Klüver Chair: Aina Gallego Examining the Effect of European Integration on Discussant: Gail McElroy Party-Voter Congruence across Time Kyriaki Nanou and Galina Zapryanova Elections and Embezzlement Malte Lierl In or Out? Supranational Integration, Policy Constraints and the Rise of Populist Extremes Multi-Office Incumbency Advantage: Political Nikitas Konstantinidis, Konstantinos Matakos, Careers in Brazil and Hande Mutlu-Eren Leandro De Magalhaes and Salomo Hirnoven

Deficit Exemptions under Exceptional Commodity Shocks, Misattribution, and Circumstances Incumbency Effects: Evidence from Brazil Sebastiaan Wijsman and Christophe Crombez Lucas Novaes and Luis Schiumerini

Rocking the boat? Conflict in the European How Common is Incumbency Disadvantage Parliament for the six and two packs Andrew B. Hall and Anthony Fowler negotiations. Benedetta Carlotti 230 Referenda 115 Th. 14:00 The Politics of Coalition Stability Meeting Studio 212 Th. 14:00 Meeting Studio 206 Chair: Jae-Jae Spoon Discussant: Simon Hug Chair: Erica Edwards Discussant: Indridi Indridason Partisan cueing effects on citizens' issue positions: Experimental evidence from a seven- All Cards on the Table: Public Opinion and nation comparative study Partisan Reshuffles in Coalition Governments Aldo Paparo Lanny W. Martin and Mathias Wessel Tromborg The Evolution of Direct Democracy -- Conflict Policymaking in Parliamentary Systems: How and Cleavage Structure Executive and Legislative Institutions Facilitate Lucas Leemann the Enforcement of Coalition Compromises Fabio Franchino and Christopher Wratil How representative are referendums? Evidence from 20 years of Swiss referendums Institutions and cabinet formation: A veto Arndt Leininger and Lea Heyne players analysis Holger Döring, Johan Hellström and Maria Türk

Bringing Information In: Personality and Citizenship and rights vs. identity trade-off in Ideology in the Context of Direct Democracy Europe Kathrin Ackermann and Markus Freitag Egle Verseckaite

245 312 European Public Opinion Terrorism and Civil War Th. 14:00 Th. 14:00 Meeting Studio 213 Meeting Studio 216

Chair: Lars Mader Chair: Thomas Chadefaux Discussant: Michael Donnelly Discussant: Nils-Christian Bormann

Opinion polls and the party mandate One-hit-wonder or success story? Assessing the Tom Louwerse effect of the resourcing structure on the frequency of terrorist attacks Public Opinion Polarization across Europe Julia Semmelbeck Paul C. Bauer Modeling Spoiler Problems in Civil Wars Economic Crisis, Mobilization and Party System Julian Wucherpfennig Re-alignment Michael Courtney Government Policy and the Composition of Terrorist Groups Income Inequality and Party Polarisation in Micael Castanheira and Scott A Tyson Comparative Perspective Michele Fenzl 403 Model Estimation: Assumptions and Consequences 258 Th. 14:00 The End of National Identity? Meeting Studio 311 Th. 14:00 Meeting Studio 214 Chair: Vera Troeger Discussant: Piero Stanig Chair: Gabriele Spilker Discussant: Tina Freyburg Primary Effect in Open-List Elections Different on the outside, same on the inside? Jaakko Meriläinen and Janne Tukiainen Comparing vote functions in first- and second- order elections Interactions Out of Control: Control Strategies Heiko Giebler for Interaction Models Janina Beiser and Liam McGrath Many faces of chauvinism? Citizens’ sense of national superiority in a comparative If Spatial Not SUTVA perspective Scott Cook, Florian Hollenbach, and Timm Betz Matthias Mader What about the rest of the pie? A dynamic Economic crisis, the status of nations, and compositional approach to modeling inequality individual national identification Alyssa Conley, Andrew Philips and Guy D. María José Hierro Whitten

509 704 Ethnic and Interethnic Politics Experimental Innovations Th. 14:00 Th. 14:00 Meeting Studio 312 Meeting Studio 314

Chair: Rikhil Bhavnani Chair: Thomas Gschwend Discussant: Tiberiu Dragu Discussant: Macartan Humphreys

Ethnic Politics and Job Performance in the Understanding Non-Response Bias in Candidate Kenyan Police 1957-1970 Surveys Oliver Vanden Eynde, Patrick M Kuhn and Javier Sajuria, Wolfgang Rudig and Jennifer van Alexander Moradi Heerde-Hudson

Privileging one's own? Voting patterns and Voting on Equal Opportunity in Contests: politicized spending in India Evidence from an Online Synchronous Pradeep Chhibber and Francesca R. Jensenius Experiment Soenke Ehret Electoral Accountability, Ethnic Diversity, and Poverty in Indonesia. Evidence from a Quasi- Should I immunize myself against internet Experimental Approach hoaxes on Vaccination? An experimental Chingun Anderson assessment of source and message credibility Claudio Gentili, Gabriel Katz, and Laura Sudulich Interethnic Divisions in an Online Network Annerose Nisser and Nils B. Weidmann Mechanisms Behind Long-Term Persistence of Political Behavior: A Natural Experiment Volha Charnysh and Leonid Peisakhin 529 The Politics of Developing Markets Th. 14:00 724 Meeting Studio 313 Electoral Manipulation Th. 14:00 Chair: Jana Grittersova Meeting Studio 315 Discussant: Joachim Behnke Chair: Stefanie Bailer The Institutional Origins of Financial Imbalances Discussant: Eric Dickson in the Developed World Mark S. Manger Ownership Matters: The Microfoundations of the Resource Curse in Sub-Saharan Africa Who are the Emerging Markets? Arpita Khanna, Gerald Schneider, and Tim Rajeev Arumugam, Soo Yeon Kim, Manali Wegenast Kumar, and Florian Winkler Clientelism and Censorship Local currency bond market development and Stephen Meserve and Daniel Pemstein policy space: Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa Florence Dafe Ballots vs Bullets: The Electoral Origins of the Maoist Insurgency in Nepal Fiscal Foundations of Innovation Mario Chacon and Christopher Paik Benjamin Barber IV and Pablo Beramendi Poll Watchers, Polling Stations, and Electoral Manipulation Sergio Ascencio and Miguel R. Rueda

Was Meritocracy Inspired by a Nativist Backlash Discrimination in strategic settings Against Immigration? Migration and the Civil Dominik Duell and Dimitri Landa Service During the US `Age of Reform' Alexander Bolton, James R. Hollyer and Leonard Wantchekon Thursday 16:00-18:00 Rebels with a Cause: The Role of Elections in the Development of Anti-Incumbent Behaviours 114 Pedro Riera Sagrera Electorate Opinion about the EU Th. 16:00 Contempt as a Differential Predictor of Meeting Studio 204 Candidate Evaluation and Voting David P. Redlawsk, Ira Roseman, Kyle Mattes, Chair: Kyriaki Nanou and Steven Katz Discussant: Christina Schneider The political psychology of UKIP: Personality Muslims, Immigration, Tolerance, and Perceived factors, authoritarianism and support for right- Threat in the EU wing populist parties in Britain Cengiz Erisen Roland Kappe

Tweeting Europe: A text-analytic approach to What I Like About You: Valence versus unveiling the content of Twitter activities of the Congruence in Legislative Vote Choice Members of the European Parliament Adam Ramey, Jonathan Klingler, and Gary James P. Cross, Derek Greene and Mark Belford Hollibaugh

Do citizens change their mind on Europe? An analysis of discourses on European integration 234 Bernard Steunenberg, Antoaneta Dimitrova and Immigration Public Opinion Elitsa Kortenska Th. 16:00 Meeting Studio 211 Too Good to be True? Public Opinion and Policy Responsiveness in the EU Chair: Christophe Crombez Jørgen Bølstad Discussant: Andrew Hall Do Active Presidents Alleviate Euroscepticism in Semi-presidential Countries? Cohabitation, The Dynamics of Political Trust and Concern Intra-executive Conflicts and Trust in the about Immigration European Union Conrad Ziller Huang-Ting Yan Public Attitudes toward Asylum-Seekers and Asylum Policies across Europe 201 Kirk Basnak, Jens Hainmueller, and Dominik Electorate Evaluations of Candidates and Hangartner Parties Th. 16:00 Municipal Party Government and Immigrant Meeting Studio 206 Incorporation Dalston Ward Chair: Kostas Gemenis Discussant: Jason Casellas What is Islamophobia? New Evidence from a Survey Experiment in the UK Marc Helbling and Richard Traunmüller

Catalyst or Crown: Does Naturalization Promote Attitudes on Affirmative Action in Brazil: the Social and Economic Integration of Different Policies, Different Support Immigrants? Philip Habel and Mathieu Turgeon Jens Hainmueller, Dominik Hangartner and Giuseppe Pietrantuono Competitive Propaganda and Political Behavior: Evidence from Belarus Leonid Peisakhin and Arturas Rozenas 241 Media and Politics Information from Abroad: Foreign Media, Th. 16:00 Selective Exposure, and Regime Support in China Meeting Studio 212 Haifeng Huang and Yao-Yuan Yeh

Chair: Thomas M. Meyer Can Citizens Be Framed? How Information, Not Discussant: Paul Kellstedt Emphasis, Changes Opinions Thomas J. Leeper and Rune Slothuus Speaking with one voice: when did British parliamentary campaigns become nationalized? Laura Bronner and Daniel Ziblatt 260 Leaders and Public Opinion The Plausibility Paradox: Understanding How the Th. 16:00 Media Select and Discuss Political Events Meeting Studio 214 Erik Gahner Larsen and Zoltán Fazekas Chair: Joan-Josep Vallbé Scrutinizing the Myth of Adolf Hitler as a Discussant: Tom Louwerse Consummate Campaigner Peter Selb and Simon Munzert Changing modes of partisanship and implications for political trust Eri Bertsou Symbols of priority? How the media selectively report on parties’ election campaigns Delayed Gratification and Voter Turnout Maarja Lühiste and Zachary Greene Jerome Schafer

Political Advertising on the Wikipedia Market Mediatized Leader Effects on Electoral Behavior. Place of Information How Leadership Images in Dutch Media affects Sascha Göbel and Simon Munzert Shifting Vote Intentions, 2006-2012. Loes Aaldering, Tom van der Meer and Wouter van der Brug 248 Framing, Diversity and Public Opinion A spiral of (in)visibility? Assessing individual Th. 16:00 politicians’ visibility in traditional news vs. online Meeting Studio 213 content Sanne Kruikemeier, Katjana Gattermann Chair: Nikitas Konstantinidis Discussant: David Fortunato 323 The Military and Conflict Ethnic Diversity, Personal Contact With Th. 16:00 Minorities and Trust: Evidence from a Trust Meeting Studio 216 Game Embedded in a Natural Experiment Henning Finseraas, Torbjørn Hansson, Åshild A. Chair: Anne Sartori Johnsen, Andreas Kotsadam and Gaute Torsvik

Discussant: Michael Colaresi The Use of Mobile Devices in Web Surveys: Does the Impact of Built-In Video-Clips Vary across Troops or Cash? Analyzing the Devices? interdependencies between military and Lena Masch financial cooperation Jonas Bunte and Brandon Kinne 508 More Misery or More Stability? Arms Transfers Political Change and Intrastate Conflict Th. 16:00 Oliver Pamp, Simon Primus and Paul W. Thurner Meeting Studio 312

Military Advice to Wary Political Leaders on Chair: Simon Toubeau Deployment Abroad: Juxtaposing Transparent Discussant: Michael Ting Germany to Opaque Greece Kjell Engelbrekt Democracy and Wellbeing: A difference-in- differences analysis of the consequences of Third Parties, Uncertainty and Civil War regime transitions Casper Sakstrup Kelly Rader, Pablo Pinto and Bob Erikson

Boys and Their Toys: Leaders’ Prestige and the Democracy, Quality of Government, and Human Import of Major Weapon Systems Development: Complementary or Substitutable Richard Johnson and Aaron Shreve Effects? John Gerring, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Svend-Erik Skaaning and Jan Teorell 411 Research Design and Inference Democratization, Economic Reforms, and Social Th. 16:00 Welfare in Post-Socialist Countries. Positive Meeting Studio 311 Synergy or Contrasting Processes? Andrea Cassani, Gabriele Natalizia Chair: Marc Meredith Discussant: Matthias Orlowski The impact of inequality on support for franchise extension: evidence from Britain’s Significance and Robustness “Age of Reform” Thomas Plümper and Eric Neumayer Jonathan Chapman

Formally Characterizing Research Designs to Colonialism and Gender Inequality: The impact Improve Designs, Enable Diagnosis, and of German missionaries on the Encourage Pre-Registration conceptualization of current gender roles in Graeme Blair, Jasper Cooper, Alexander Coppock Tanzania and Macartan Humphreys Max Montgomery

Making QCA and Case Study Work: An Integrated Multi-Method Approach 526 Priscilla Alamos-Concha Developing Democracies Th. 16:00 Correcting for Turnout Misreporting in Online Meeting Studio 313 Surveys Patrick Kuhn and Nick Vivyan Chair: Mayling Birney Discussant: Fernando Hidalgo

The Political Transfer Problem: Windfalls, Violence and Democratization Faisal Z. Ahmed, Daniel Schwab, and Eric Werker 719 Middle Eastern State Formation in Comparative Incumbency Perspective Th. 16:00 Lisa Blaydes Meeting Studio 315

The Present Absence of Bedouins: Israel’s Plan Chair: Luis Schiumerini to Develop the Negev Region and the Bedouins Discussant: James Snyder Esra Bakkalbasioglu Signal failure: Are hard working candidates also Flexible Oligarchs: Defending Wealth in hard working legislators? Developing Democracies Gail McElroy and Shaun Bowler Stanislav Markus Quality-based explanations of incumbency effects 550 Andrew C Eggers Judicial Politics Th. 16:00 Explaining the Incumbency (Dis)advantage in Meeting Studio 314 Young Democracies with the Limited Presence of Media Chair: Lydia Tiede Alexander Fouirnaies Discussant: Lydia Tiede Electoral Imbalances and their Consequences How Personal Motives Influence Judicial Carlo Prato and Stephane Wolton Behavior Ryan C. Black, Ryan J. Owens, Justin Wedeking, Reputation, Term Limits, and Incumbency (Dis) and Patrick C. Wohlfarth Advantage Navin Kartik and Richard Van Weelden Are Judges Political Animals After All? Quasi- experimental evidence from the German Constitutional Court. Thomas Gschwend, Sebastian Sternberg and Steffen Zittlau

An Investigation of the Dynamics of Judicial Dissent on the Danish Supreme Court Henrik Litleré Bentsen, Mark Jonathan McKenzie, and Jon Kåre Skiple

Judicial Institutions and the Dilemmas of Power- Sharing and Control in Authoritarian Regimes: Evidence from Mexico and Spain Julio Rios-Figueroa, Paloma Aguilar

The interdependence of independent judiciaries Marek Endrich

Friday, 24-6-2016 Yuhua Wang

8:30-10:15 A Tale of Two Constituencies: Clientelism, Rent, and Local Officials’ Land Use Behaviors in China

Xin Sun

106

Regulatory Politics in Europe 209 Fr. 8:30 Scandal and Corruption Meeting Studio 204 Fr. 8:30

Meeting Studio 211 Chair: Doreen Allerkamp

Discussant: Thomas König Chair: Leandro De Magalhaes

Discussant: Miriam Golden Regulating Europe better: Explaining stakeholders’ demands for a Better Regulation All the President's Congressmen: the electoral policy in the European Union. consequences of Watergate Adriana Bunea and Raimondas Ibenskas Roosmarijn de Geus

Inference without Control: The Case of Assigning blame where it belongs: Differential European Counterterrorist Regulations effects of political scandals on the non- Mariaelisa Epifanio and Thomas Plümper ideological component of political preferences

Dominic Nyhuis Political and interest group ties in European

Agencies Evidence from a Natural Experiment in an Ixchel Pérez Durán Autocratic Regime Anti-Corruption Efforts and

Public Opinion in China: Does more regulation result in better Nan Zhang governance? An impact assessment of public accountability mechanisms across Europe. The corrosive effect of corruption on trust in Luciana Cingolani and Ramin Dadasov politicians: evidence from a natural experiment

Macarena Ares and Enrique Hernández

117

The Politics of Freedom in China 231 Fr. 8:30 Economic Voting when it matters most Meeting Studio 206 Fr. 8:30

Meeting Studio 212 Chair: Atsushi Tago

Discussant: Ellen Lust Chair: Florian Hollenbach

Discussant: Mary Stegmaier Online Deliberation in China: Who Voices

Opinions in Chinese Cyberspace? External Endorsements and Economic Policy Daniela Stockmann and Ting Luo Preferences in the Crisis

Jose Fernandez-Albertos, Alexander Kuo What Democracy Means in China and the Rest of the World: New Survey Techniques Transparency, Accountability and Assessment Mayling Birney and Pierre Landry James Bisbee, James R. Hollyer, B. Peter

Rosendorff and James Raymond Vreeland Emperor’s Gift: Imperial Civil Service Exam,

Human Capital Accumulation and State Capacity in China

Which Economy? Explaining Heterogeneity in The Dynamics of Policy Change Individuals’ Use of Economic Conditions Christian Breunig, Martin Elff, and Samual G. Timothy Hellwig and Dani M. Marinova Workman

Economic Voting in Multi-Level Systems: The Influence of Economic Perceptions and Partisan 309 Congruence on Incumbent Support in Six From Civil Conflict to Civil Peace? Regions Fr. 8:30 Simon Toubeau and Markus Wagner Meeting Studio 216

246 Chair: Frank Times Social Movements and Civil Rights Discussant: Nils Metternich Fr. 8:30 Meeting Studio 213 Quality of Peace and Long Peace Resat Bayer Chair: Gary Segura Discussant: Gary Segura Traditions of War? Ancestral Culture and Support for Political Violence in Africa Public Services, State-Centered Grievances and Tore Wig Protest: Evidence from South Africa Alexander De Juan and Eva Wegner Political regimes and civil conflict onset: a reassessment employing a new empirical Electoral Compliance and Human Rights typology Violations Sebastian Ziaja Svitlana Chernykh and Sam Bell Reserved Compliance: Does the Way States Region Difference and Incentives of Social Ratify Affect Whether they Comply? Movement Participation Shaina Western Alex Chang, Yen-chen Tang, and Huoyan Shyu 404 Uncertainty, Risk and Electoral Violence Text Analysis: Compromise and Conflict Sarah Birch and David Muchlinski Fr. 8:30 Meeting Studio 311

259 Chair: Pablo Barbera Public Opinion and Political Change Discussant: Ken Benoit Fr. 8:30 Meeting Studio 214 On Eager Ears? What Policy Topics in the Kremlin’s Political Rhetoric Reveal about Russian Chair: Paull Kellstedt Politics Discussant: Mark Pickup Alexander Baturo and Johan A. Elkink

An error grave of consequence. Empirical Elite Polarization in the House of Commons, models to study propensities to vote for political 1935--2014: A Supervised Learning Approach parties Arthur Spirling and Andrew Peterson Nathalie Giger and Simon Hug Measuring Government Policy Towards Business The Long Term Dynamics of Persuasion in David Doyle and Radoslaw Zubek Multiparty Systems Spyros Kosmidis Finding Compromise: The Effects of Debate Quality in the German Mediation Committee

Valentin Gold The social class-party association under different configurations of the partisan supply 516 Macarena Ares Coalitions, Committees and Legislative Process Fr. 8:30 Meeting Studio 312 705 The Politics of Immigration Attitudes Chair: Ruben Ruiz-Rufino Fr. 8:30 Discussant: Lanny Martin Meeting Studio 314

Equilibrium Veto Players: Veto Institutions, Chair: Henning Finseraas Cabinet Formation and Institutional Change Discussant: Richard Traunmüller Steffen Ganghof and Sebastian Eppner The impact of risk and skill transferability on Cabinet formation and coalition governance: attitudes towards immigration Understanding the link between ministerial Sergi Pardos-Prado and Carla Xena portfolio allocation and coalition agreements Svenja Krauss and Heike Klüver Refugees, Local Backlash and East-Germany Moritz Marbach Guido Ropers Distributing Party and Committee Posts: A Parliamentary Theory of Distribution Immigration Policy Preferences and Varieties of Martin Ejnar Hansen Immigration Policies Sarah Cormack-Patton The Benefits of Infighting: How Factions May Protect Coalitions against Policy Crises Florence So 723 Non-democratic Politics Fr. 8:30 531 Meeting Studio 315 Economic Inequality and Voter Preferences Fr. 8:30 Chair: Viola Lucas Meeting Studio 313 Discussant: Lisa Blaydes

Chair: Kenneth Scheve The Origin and Durability of One-man Rule: Discussant: Mark Kayser Incentive Structures Embodied in Semi- presidentialism Egocentric and Sociotropic Foundations of Huang-Ting Yan Individual Policy Preferences Roman Liesch and Michael M. Bechtel Mass Purges B. Pablo Montagnes and Stephane Wolton Voting on Redistribution through a "Leaky Bucket". Evidence from a Laboratory Democracy Measuring sanctions’ impact on financial Jan Lorenz, Maximilian Lutz, Fabian Paetzel and markets Markus Tepe Dawid Jarosz

Let Them Eat Cake? Inequality and Public Investing in the Future. How Foreign Investment Attitudes Towards Progressive Taxation: a study Affects Autocratic Regime Survival of altruism and material self-interest using GSS Tobias Rommel panel data Sarah Berens and Margarita Gelepithis

Orit Kedar, Odelia Oshri, and Lotem Halevy Friday 10:30-12:30 The changing political gender gap across the generations in Western countries: the role of 123 secularisation Democratic Development Rosalind Shorrocks Fr. 10:30 Meeting Studio 204 Political Socialization after Parental Separation: Breaking with the Traditional Family Model Chair: Carl Henrik Knutsen Mathilde M. van Ditmars Discussant: Kelly Rader

The Political Survival of Prime Ministers in `My Baby Needs the State’: Explaining Gender Central and Eastern Europe Differences in Attitude Change towards Welfare Florian Grotz and Till Weber State Diana Burlacu and Maarja Lühiste Leaders, membership and political coalitions: Explaining variation in bargaining strategies of education and healthcare unions in Romania 211 Aurelian Muntean, and Dragos Adascalitei Strategic Voting Fr. 10:30 Determinants of Support for Democracy in East Meeting Studio 211 Central Europe: A SEM Approach Kiran Auerbach and Bilyana Petrova Chair: David Fortunato Discussant: Paul Thurner Changing Structure of Party Competition in Central Eastern Europe Risk Aversion and Strategic Voting Lukas Linek Danielle Martin

Political Disagreements and Judicial Decision- Campaign Dynamics and Mixed Incentives for making on the Bulgarian Constitutional Court Strategic Voting: The Case of the UK Tanya Georgieva, Bagashka Lydia and Brashear Parliamentary Elections of 2010 Tiede Martin Elff, Spyros Kosmidis, and Andreas Murr

Bypassing Parliament: Prime minister directed 202 voting in proportional representation systems Gender, Preferences and Voting Mattan Sharkansky Fr. 10:30 Meeting Studio 206 Heterogeneity in Coalition-Directed Voting. Extreme Voters and the Vote Calculus in Chair: Martin Ejnar Hansen Multiparty Democracies Denis Cohen and Naoki Egami Discussant: Marc Meredith Rethinking Single-Member Districts The Cost of Sexism: Gender Biased Media Peter St Sentiment and Investor Reactions to Budgetary Politics Michael Courtney 224 Mobilization and Turnout The changing gender gap in voting: women Fr. 10:30 shifting left or men shifting right? Meeting Studio 212

Saurabh Pant, Christoph Mikulaschek, and Beza Chair: Jason Eichorst Tesfaye Discussant: Jeremy Ferwerda Does Education matter? Leaders and Mobilizing Party Activism: A Field Experiment International Conflicts with Party Members and Sympathizers Jinxu Tang Giordano Neuenschwander, and Florian Foos The Political Compliance Cycle: Electoral Forging a Non-Violent Mass Movement: Institutions, Partisan Politics, and Violations of Economic Shocks and Organizational Innovations International Commitments in India’s Struggle for Democracy Tobias Hofmann Rikhil Bhavnani and Saumitra Jha

Bridging the 'Euro Gap': Can Euroscepticism 320 explain turnout differences between national Repression and European elections? Fr. 10:30 Constantin Schäfer Meeting Studio 214

Rainy day politics. An instrumental variables Chair: Yuhua Wang approach to the effect of parties on political Discussant: Christopher Claassen outcomes Jo Thori Lind Civilian Victimization and Forced Recruitment Simon Hug and Livia Schubiger Disagreement in social networks and electoral participation: a matter of cohesiveness? Riccardo Ladini Moreno Mancosu Female combatants and the politics of gender- based repression in the Syrian conflict Anita Gohdes

Action and Reaction: the Effect of Protest 311 Triggers on State Control Violence and Human Rights Barbara Maria Piotrowska Fr. 10:30 Meeting Studio 213 Protectors of national interest or agents of supranational legal order? National judges’ Chair: Svitlana Chernykh preferences towards international law Discussant: Roland Kappe Jon Kåre Skiple

Assessing the Effectiveness of Human Rights Rhetoric: An empirical test of the Spiral Model 502 Dominik Schafflutzel, Slava Mikhaylov, Rodwan Politics and Local Services Abouharb Fr. 10:30 Meeting Studio 216 The Causes and Consequences of Election Violence: Introducing the Global Election Chair: Simon Chauchard Violence Dataset Discussant: Valentin Schröder Inken von Borzyskowski The role of poor people’s values for sustaining Winning Hearts and Minds in a Civil War: different forms of clientelism Leadership Change, Governance Perceptions, Miquel Pellicer, Eva Wegner, Lindsay Benstead, and Support for Violence in Iraq Harold Kincaid, and Juanita Vasquez

Fr. 10:30 The Differential Impact of Weberian State Meeting Studio 312 Structures in Patronage States: Evidence from a Conjoint Survey Experiment Chair: Michael Meffert Christian Schuster and Virginia Oliveros Discussant: Peter John

Local Discrimination and Ethnic Access to Service Police Profiling, Legitimacy, and Compliance: Delivery: Evidence from Malawi Experimental Evidence Adam Harris and Ellen Lust Eric S. Dickson, Sanford C. Gordon, and Gregory A. Huber The More the Merrier. Consequences of a Bigger Government Size and Misreporting by Corrupt Variations in conflict outcomes and their effect Municipalities on social identification of group members Juan Carvajal Maya Hadar

Electoral Institutions and Ethnic Clientelism in Mobilized Dissent and Repression as a Dual Jordan Coordination Problem Kristen Kao Tiberiu Dragu and Yonatan Lupu

Migration Triggers: A Field Experiment on the 513 Determinants of Migration Regional Dissent Cassilde Schwartz, Miranda Simon, David Fr. 10:30 Hudson, and Shane Johnson Meeting Studio 311 Collective Action and the Politics of Emigration Chair: Luciana Cingolani Policy Discussant: Eric Neumayer Emily A. Sellars

When Polarization Trumps Civic Virtue: Economic Inequality, Captured Voters, and the 530 Subversion of Democracy by Incumbents The Public and Trade Policy Milan Svolik Fr. 10:30 Meeting Studio 313 Efficient or Inefficient Deliberation Suhjin Lee Chair: David Marshall Discussant: Andreas Dür Decentralization as Party Electoral Strategy Kathryn Wainfan Consumer Power, International Trade and Human Rights: When Can Consumers Improve The Right to Secede: the Political Economy of Labor Practices In Other Countries? Exit Clauses Kerim Can Kavakli Martijn Huysmans and Christophe Crombez Public Support for TTIP in EU Countries: What The Space Between: Labor Market Dualization Determines Trade Policy Preferences in a Salient and Political Allegiances Real-World Case? Alexandra Cirone and Brett Meyer Nils D. Steiner

The Role of Public Opinion in Advocacy 518 Anne Rasmussen, Lars Mader and Stefanie Between a Fence and a Hard Place: Migration Reher Politics

Not All Tariffs Are Created Equal: Consumer Interests and Trade Policy Policy Complexity and Political Accountability Timm Betz and Amy Pond Raymond Duch, Dimitri Landa and Patrick Le Bihan Corrective Information and Public Opinion About Trade Agreements Issue Salience and Electoral Campaigns Quynh Nguyen, Gabriele Spilker, and Thomas Tiberiu Dragu and Xiaochen Fan Bernauer Electoral Ambiguity and Political Representation Navin Kartik, Richard Van Weelden, and 703 Stephane Wolton Parties and the Voter Fr. 10:30 Parties Fighting Inside and Out. A Formal Model Meeting Studio 314 of Electoral Competition with Ideological Factions Chair: Janne Tukiainen Federica Izzo Discussant: Robert Erikson

Friday 12:45-14:30 Do voters actually vote ‘with their heart’ if less is at stake? Thomas Gschwend 119 U.S. Congress Risk or Reward: Party strategies and extra- Fr. 12:45 parliamentarian electors in German presidential Meeting Studio 204 elections, 1949-2012 Philipp Köker Chair: Anusha Nath Discussant: Jonathan Slapin District Magnitude and Party System Fragmentation The Increasing Relative Power of Party Leaders Pedro Riera in Congress Pamela Ban, Daniel J. Moskowitz, and James M. Incumbency and Newspaper Coverage Snyder, Jr. Jim Snyder, Pamela Ban, Alexander Fouirnaies, and Andrew B. Hall Democratic Representation and the President’s Agenda: Policy Priorities from Eisenhower When parties do not seem to follow the Micro- through Obama mega rule. Evidence from local electoral system Anthony Bertelli and George Krause design Jordi Calvet How Elite Opinion Explains Disagreement between Presidents, Senators and Representatives about US Immigration Policy 720 David Karol Policy Complexity and the Voter Fr. 10:30 What Are the Electoral Consequences of Meeting Studio 315 Campaign Spending Limits? Alexander Fouirnaies Chair: Indridi Indridason Discussant: Dominik Duell 212 Winners, Losers, and European Elections

Fr. 12:45 Elias Dinas, Ignacio Jurado, Nikitas Konstantinidis Meeting Studio 206 and Stefanie Walter

Chair: Katjana Gattermann The impact of health policy reforms on public Discussant: Nick Vivyan opinion Diana Burlacu and Ellen Immergut Representation in the European Parliament: Winners, Losers and the Source of Agency Problems. Miriam Sorace 247 The Glue of Politics: Parties and Candidates Voter Uncertainty and Party Ambiguity in EP Fr. 12:45 Elections Meeting Studio 212 Guido Tiemann Chair: Matthias Haber Multidimensional Congruence and European Discussant: Zachary Greene Parliament Electoral Performance Ryan Bakker, Seth Jolly and Jonathan Polk Intra-Party Heterogeneity in Policy Preferences and Issue Salience: Evidence from the Congruence Between European, National and Comparative Candidates Survey Regional Elections Matthias Mader and Nils D. Steiner Arjan H. Schakel Examining Parties' Policy Supply. A Step Towards an Understanding of the Pledge Puzzle 232 Katrin Praprotnik Evolution of Public Opinion Fr. 12:45 Intra-Party Democracy and Coalition Survival Meeting Studio 211 Roni Lehrer

Chair: Michael Donnelly Centripetal and centrifugal incentives in mixed- Discussant: David Redlawsk member proportional systems Anna-Sophie Kurella, Franz Urban Pappi and Thomas Bräuninger

Blame avoidance? Issue attention in leader speeches during the economic crisis in Europe Denise Traber, Martijn Schoonvelde and Gijs 261 Schumacher Party Strategies and the Voter Fr. 12:45 Where have all the leaders gone? Evaluating the Meeting Studio 213 dynamics of party’s issue attention Iñaki Sagarzazu and Heike Klüver Chair: Jo Thori Lind Discussant: Heiko Giebler 'There's many a slip twixt the cup and the lip'. Missing links in explaining social expenditure: An Party Agendas, Issue Yield and Political application to the Italian case (1946-2009) Inequality Andrea Ceron, Luigi Curini and Fedra Negri Lorenzo De Sio and Till Weber

Daring to Fail: When Bad Economic The Impact of Variations in Party Supply and Management can be Electorally Rewarding Electoral Rules on Strategic Voting Philipp Harfst

Know your competitors: Competitive proximity Jointly scaling citizens and legislators. The issue and party strategies of varying structures in ideology. Tarik Abou-Chadi Matthias Orlowski Lukas Stoetzer

In the eye of the beholder. Voters' perceptions Ideal-Point Estimation with Correlated Votes of party policy shifts: the case of Germany Alexander Tahk Carolina Plescia and Magdalena Staniek

520 307 Collective Action Predicting Civil Conflict and Terrorism Fr. 12:45 Fr. 12:45 Meeting Studio 311 Meeting Studio 214 Chair: Julian Garritzmann Chair: Alexandros Tokhi Discussant: Florian Foos Discussant: Julian Wucherpfennig Early Industrialization and Contentious Signaling Weakness? The Positive and Negative Collective Action: Evidence from African Externalities of Power-Sharing on Civil War Industrial Mines Diffusion Carl-Henrik Knutsen, Andreas Kotsadam, Eivind Nils-Christian Bormann and Burcu Savun Hammersmark Olsen and Tore Wig

Lethality of Terrorist Attacks as a Predictor of Broker networks and clientelistic mobilization of Civil Wars voters: Understanding clientelistic strategies in Katerina Tkacova rural settings Aurelian Muntean Laying bare fault lines: an analysis of perceptions on the Boko Haram crisis in Nigeria From Political Mobilization to Electoral Amélie Godefroidt, Arnim Langer and Bart Participation: Turnout in Barcelona in the 1930s Meuleman Francesc Amat, Carles Boix, Jordi Muñoz and Toni Rodon Peacekeepers and ethnic violence Jessica Di Salvatore Traditional Institutions and Social Cooperation: Experimental Evidence from the Buganda Kingdom 405 Mitchell Goist and Florian G. Kern Measuring Voter Preferences Fr. 12:45 Running to the Voting Booth: The Effect of Meeting Studio 216 Marathon Target Times on Turnout Daniel Rubenson and Christopher Dawes Chair: Joan Serra Discussant: Thomas Gschwend 533 Terrorism The use of historical evidence in comparative Fr. 12:45 studies: Pitfalls and guidelines Meeting Studio 312 Svend-Erik Skaaning and Jørgen Møller Chair: Alexander Schmotz A New Measure of Congruence: Earth Mover’s Discussant: Andrew Long Distance Noam Lupu, Lucia Selios and Zach Warner On Democracy and Counterterrorism

Livio Di Lonardo and Tiberiu Dragu Michael Jankowski and Kamil Marcinkiewicz On Political Parties and Terrorist Groups Livio Di Lonardo Benefits of Diversity: why do political parties recruit women and minority ethnic Is it effective to ban a political party? parliamentarians and what does it mean for the Andreu Arenas concept of representation? Maria Sobolewska Spatial Spill-overs in the Impact of Islamist Terrorism on Tourism from Western Countries The Transformation of the Gender Gap in Eric Neumayer and Thomas Plümper Partisanship in the US: A Generational Replacement? Civil War and Social Capital: A Comparative Liran Harsgor Analysis of Social Trust in South East Europe Sara Kijewski Do Female National-level Politicians Serve as Role Models for Local Women? Descriptive and 707 Substantive Representation in South Korea. International Organizations and Conflict Kuniaki Nemoto Fr. 12:45 Meeting Studio 313 Friday 14:45-16:30

Chair: Nauro Campos Discussant: Bernd Beber 722 The Economy and the Electorate The Effects of Voluntary Contributions on World Fr. 14:45 Health Organization Program Funding Meeting Studio 204 Carie A. Steele Chair: Robert Grafstein Piling on? Regional Organizations as Drivers of Discussant: Timothy Hellwig UN Sanctions Inken von Borzyskowski and Clara Portela A Changing Economic Vote in Western Europe? Long-Term vs. Short-Term Forces Binding Conflict Resolution Mechanisms And the Ruth Dassonneville and Michael S. Lewis-Beck Law Of the Sea Aslaug Asgeirsdottir Attributing Blame? Evidence from multilevel governments in Europe How to win friends and influence the UN: Donor Sandra León, Ignacio Jurado, and Amuitz influence on the United Nations' bureaucracy Madariaga Svanhildur Thorvaldsdottir The impact of e-voting on turnout: Insights from the Walloon case 253 Régis Dandoy Gender and Political Careers Fr. 12:45 Winners and Losers in International Trade: The Meeting Studio 314 Effects on U.S. Presidential Voting J. Bradford Jensen, Dennis P. Quinn, and Chair: Niklas Harder Stephen Weymouth Discussant: Anita Gohdes

Women’s Political Representation in Polish 127 Parliamentary Elections: Is There a Gender Bias Legislative Institutions and the Vote in Open-List PR Systems? Fr. 14:45

Meeting Studio 206 Chair: Jennifer van Heerde-Hudson Discussant: Gregory Love Chair: Justin Valasek Discussant: Amie Kreppel Intraparty voting and satisfaction with democracy Legislative Reform and Party Institutionalization Damien Bol, André Blais, Lidia Nunez, and Jean- Alexandra Cirone and Brenda Van Coppenolle Benoit Pilet

The Electoral Implications of a Cartelized The effects of technocratic government Legislature appointments on citizens' political support: David Fortunato and Nathan W. Monroe Evidence from Europe Eri Bertsou and Giulia Pastorella Legislative Party Switching in Europe Elad Klein The Effect of Democratic Ideals on Political Behavior: A Comparative Analysis Does Intra-District Polarization Cause Party Jennifer Oser and Marc Hooghe Polarization in Congress? Hiroki Kubo 250 For the People, By the People? Governance between Wall Street and Think Tank 213 Fr. 14:45 Parties, Coalitions and Legislative Process Meeting Studio 213 Fr. 14:45 Meeting Studio 211 Chair: Andrea Ceron Discussant: Laura Sudulich Chair: Dominik Duell Discussant: Sven-Oliver Proksch In the Shadow of Climate Change: Determinants of Cross-National Disaster Risk Reduction Helping or Hurting? How Governing as a Junior Alejandro Quiroz Flores Coalition Partner Influences Electoral Outcomes Jae-Jae Spoon and Heike Klüver Living abroad, voting at home - Electoral motivations of expatriates What Causes Gamson’s Law? Experimental Andreas Goldberg and Simon Lanz Evidence Aaron Kamm and Simon Siegenthaler Who governs? Professional Politicians, Wall Street or the People? Changing Times, Changing Minds: Critical Events Despina Alexiadou and Party Participation in Government Ioannis Loukas Vassiliadis Measuring the Influence of Conservative Think Tanks on Climate Change Discussions in the U.S. "Flirting" for Coalition Participation? Exploring Congress the Communication Strategies of Dutch Parties Constantine Boussalis, Travis G. Coan and Amy in Parliament, 1998-2012 McKay Mariken van der Velden

262 233 The Democratic Deficit Democratic Satisfaction Fr. 14:45 Fr. 14:45 Meeting Studio 214 Meeting Studio 212 Chair: Svend-Erik Skaaning

Discussant: Stephane Wolton 406 Mind the Gap! Assessing the Impact of Public Measurement Strategies Perceptions of a Democratic Deficit on Citizens’ Fr. 14:45 Political Engagement in European Democracies. Meeting Studio 311 Caroline McEvoy Chair: Scott Cook (Can't get no) Satisfaction through Direct Discussant: James Hollyer Democracy Arndt Leininger The "quality" of citations: Towards quantifying qualitative impact in (political science) research Democratic Discontent and Support for Paul C. Bauer, Pablo Barbéra, and Simon Mainstream and Challenger Parties: Rational Munzert Protest Voting Enrique Hernández A latent variable analysis of corruption experience Different or More of the Same? Differences in Matthias Haber Effects of Left and Right Wing Populism on Democratic Quality Who is really running the show? Uncovering Robert A. Huber, Robert A. and Christian H. hierarchies using career paths and network Schimpf measures Franziska Keller

313 Six components to control corruption International Organization and Global Politics effectively: An integrated approach to measure Fr. 14:45 and capture national level of corruption Meeting Studio 216 Ramin Dadasov and Alina Mungiu-Pippidi

Chair: Daniela Stockmann 521 Discussant: Vally Koubi Money In, Politics Out Fr. 14:45 Mapping the Trade and Environment Nexus: Meeting Studio 312 Insights from a New Dataset Andreas Dür, Lisa Lechner and Jean-Frédéric Chair: Isabela Mares Morin Discussant: Pablo Fernandez-Vazquez

IOs “Going Public”? Public Communication Organized Crime within Politics: Evidence from a Reforms of International Organizations in an Quasi Experiment in Italy Event History Perspective Nicola Mastrorocco and Marco Di Cataldo Matthias Ecker-Ehrhardt “Money does not Really Work but you Have to China’s Economic Weight on the Scale of Sino- Spend Some”: The Rationale for Election-time US Confrontation: Evidence from the United Cash Handouts in Mumbai Nations General Assembly Voting Data Simon Chauchard Wen-Chin Wu, Hsin-Hsin Pan, and Ronan Tse- Min Fu Campaign Finance Regulation and the Revolving Door: Evidence from Citizens United and the U.S. Democracy, Trade and Inequality -- A Computer- States aided Thought Experiment Simon Weschle Pedro Mendonça

Coordinating on Corruption: A Model of Labor Who Owns What: A Case Study On The West Sorting and Corruption Philippine Sea Dispute From The Philippine Kemal Kivanc Akoz and Abdul Ghafar Noury Perspective Almer Angelo S. ANG, Clint Lou Matthew P. Estapia, Wilde Ehrolle John A. Quimson, and 541 Marlon Cyrus V. Rubio Voter Attentiveness Fr. 14:45 Transnational solutions to transnational conflicts Meeting Studio 313 Humberto Machado Lima Junior

Chair: Gail McElroy Discussant: Rene Lindstaedt 725 Women and Political Development The legacy of authoritarian regimes on Fr. 14:45 democratic citizenship: The case of post- Meeting Studio 315 authoritarian Latin America Anja Neundorf Chair: Kamil Marcinkiewicz Discussant: David Karol Defection from cooperation by popular referendum: How expectations about creditor Women’s Substantive Representation in Modern reactions shaped the vote in the 2015 Greek Democracies: Do Gender Quotas Enhance Policy bailout referendum Congruence between Women and Stefanie Walter, Elias Dinas, Ignacio Jurado and Representatives? Nikitas Konstantinidis Sarah Dingler and Corinna Kroeber

The Optimal Allocation of Voter's Attention Authorities, Gender and the Endorsement of Greg Chih-Hsin Sheen Ending Child Marriage Reform: Evidence from a Survey Experiment in Malawi The age of politicians: A Regression Ragnhild L. Muriaas, Vibeke Wang, Lise Rakner, Discontinuity Design Boniface Dulani and Lindsay Benstead Marta Curto and Aina Gallego The Stoic Lessons of Ralph Waldo Emerson Arielle Bennett 709 International Cooperation “Because it’s 2015”? Examining the appointment Fr. 14:45 of female cabinet ministers across Europe. Dee Goddard Chair: Roos Van der Haer Discussant: Ryan Jablonski Friday 16:45-18:45

Country Preferences and International 126 Cooperation: The Timing of Treaty Membership Interests and Elections in Europe in Multilateral Agreements Fr. 16:45 Patrick Bayer Meeting Studio 204

Competing Risks Analysis of Peace Negotiations Chair: Katrin Praprotnik in Internal Armed Conflicts: Duration and Discussant: S. Erdem Aytaç Outcome Baris Ari

From REACH to the Regulation of Financial Discussant: Barbara Piotrowska Services: The Political Influence of Business in the European Union Niccolò Machiavelli, the Baron de Montesquieu, Andreas Dür, Patrick Bernhagen and David and the Destabilizing Effect of Migration on Marshall States William Barclay Representing Europeans: A Study of the Match of Policy Agendas and Citizens’ Priorities The Value of Voting Rights: Enfranchisement and Daniela Beyer Migration Decisions in the US South Andrea Bernini, Giovanni Facchini and Cecilia Communication between elected Testa representatives and their constituents; does ethnicity matter? Evidence of ethnic Effect of terrorism on incumbency and attitudes discrimination from a campaign experiment in towards minorities: Evidence from Charlie the UK Hebdo attack Rebecca McKee Gani Aldashev and Marco Giani

The impact of contextual factors on party 207 responsiveness regarding immigration issues Negative Campaigns Alina Vranceanu Fr. 16:45 Meeting Studio 206 How do parties respond to the immigration policy mood? Chair: Maarja Lühiste Marc van de Wardt, Maria Sobolewska, Patrick Discussant: Alexander Fouirnaies English, and Steven van Hauwaert

Negative Campaigning in Multicandidate Elections 305 Thomas Gschwend, Matt Golder, and Indridi H. Civil War Indridason Fr. 16:45 Meeting Studio 212 Negative campaigning: Party strategy and media coverage Chair: Inken Borzyskowski Martin Haselmayer Discussant: Lukas Haffert

The polarizing effect of negative campaigning: Geopolitics and the Aiding of Political Violence Evidence from the 2015 UK elections Faisal Z. Ahmed Davide Morisi, European University Institute A Brighter Future: Civil Conflicts and Military The Consequences of Terror Threat for Public Intervention Preference over Female Leadership Andrew G. Long Mirya Holman, Jennifer Merolla and Elizabeth Zechmeister International Politics by Other Means: External Sources of Civil War Escalation Mark A. Toukan 236 Politics of Immigration and Terrorism The Promise of Peacekeeping: Protecting Fr. 16:45 Civilians in Civil Wars Meeting Studio 211 Christoph Mikulaschek

Chair: Dalston Ward

External relations and internal negotiated Experts in the age of inter- and transdisciplinary settlement - Do network structures promote research. An empirical convergence solving incompatibility in civil wars? Sabrina Kirschke Wakako Maekawa And Yet They Move: Candidates' Ideological Repositioning During Primary and General 315 Election Campaigns Violence and Peace Keeping Forces Aaron Russell Kaufman and Pablo Barbera Fr. 16:45 Meeting Studio 213 511 Chair: Aslaug Asgeirsdottir Fiscal Politics and Redistributive Policies Discussant: Vassilis Kappis Fr. 16:45 Meeting Studio 216 The Rise of China As A Constructed Narrative: Southeast Asia’s Response to Asia’s Power Shift Chair: Francesc Amat Ce Liang Discussant: Christian Breunig

The local security effects of UN peacekeeping Political Budget Cycles and Compositional deployments Spending in EU member states Bernd Beber and Prabin Khadka Vera Troeger and Tilko Swalve

Explaining the Causes of Irredentist Violence The Legacy of War on Fiscal Capacity Seraina Rüegger and Lars-Erik Cederman Didac Queralt

Can local-level state institutions prevent EU Redistributive Politics: National and violence in national-level political crises? Supranational Determinants of Net Operating Viola Lucas and Alexander De Juan Balances Manuele Citi and Mogens K. Justesen 409 Measuring Elite Messages Fiscal Rule Stretching in Europe During Financial Fr. 16:45 Market Stress and Crises Meeting Studio 214 Christopher Gandrud and Mark Hallerberg

Chair: Henry Milner The political consequences of fiscal imbalances Discussant: Johan Elkink Pablo Beramendi, Sandra León and Amuitz Garmendia Learning Human Rights, Lefts, Ups, and Downs: Using Lexical and Syntactic Features to Understand Evolving Human Rights Standards 517 Kevin Greene, Baekkwan Park and Michael Immigration and Inequality Colaresi Fr. 16:45 Meeting Studio 311 Measuring the Significance of Political Elites Simon Munzert Chair: Pablo Beramendi Discussant: Adam Harris The role of content and context for coding policy positions from textual data Political Economy of Privilege: How Economic Laurenz Ennser-Jedenastik and Thomas M. Dis/Advantage sustains Inequality in Meyer Democracies Bastian Becker

532 Close Encounters: The Effects of Geographic and Tax and Spend Emotional Proximity on Immigration Attitudes in Fr. 16:45 Europe Meeting Studio 313 Federica Genovese and Florian Kern Chair: Alexei Zakharov Inequality and Immigration Policy Discussant: Neal Beck Margaret E. Peters and Adrian J. Shin Both sides of the Ledger Immigration and support for the welfare state in Christine Lipsmeyer, Andrew Philips and Guy D. advanced democracies Whitten Gerda Hooijer Tax Cheating in Synchronic Online Experiment Trading off Welfare and Immigration in Europe Akitaka Matsuo and Raymond Duch Ole Petter, Moe Hansen and Stefan Legge The Comparative Macropolity: Public Opinion, Proportionality and Veto Gates 519 Anthony McGann and Sebastian Dellepiane- Attitudes of and towards Immigrants Avellaneda Fr. 16:45 Meeting Studio 312 The Political Economy of Inflation and Disinflation Chair: Moritz Marbach Bob Hancke and Tim Vlandas Discussant: Dominik Hangartner Tax-Embedded Programs and the Politics of The Determinants of Environmental Migrants’ Public Policy Conflict Perception Alexander Tahk and Susannah Tahk Vally Koubi,Tobias Böhmelt,Gabriele Spilker, and Lena Schaffer 714 Should immigrants have equal access to social Elected Representatives benefits? Comparing attitudes of natives and Fr. 16:45 immigrants in the European Social Survey Meeting Studio 314 Daniel Degen, Theresa Kuhn, and Wouter van der Brug Chair: Christopher Raymond Discussant: Shaun Bowler Refugees welcome? The role of refugee characteristics and media events on attitudes to Patterned and Predictable? Parliamentary immigration. Careers in the UK House of Commons, 1979- Florian Bader and Joachim Behnke 2010 Jennifer van Heerde-Hudson, Rosie Campbell, It's in the News: The Impact of Asylum Issue Max Goplerud and Marco Morucci Salience on Judicial Decision-Making Judith Spirig Electoral Commitment and Coalition Policymaking in Latin American Legislatures Immigration, Integration and Eroding Support Jason Eichorst and John Polga-Hecimovich for Welfare States Julia de Romémont Discipline in Disorder: How Indian political parties reward MPs for disrupting parliament? Ajit Phadnis

Do Personalized Campaigns Hint at Legislator The same old story? Explaining Italian MPs’ Activities? The Hungarian Case career changes between 1987 and 2015 Zsófia Papp Nicola Martocchia Diodati and Bruno Marino

The Electoral Costs of Indiscipline of the Calling it Quits: Legislative Retirements in Ukrainian Rada Comparative Perspective Frank C Thames Christopher D. Raymond, T. Murat Yildirim, and L. Marvin Overby

721 Legislator Income and Voting Behavior EU Membership and European Integration Reto Wuest and Jan Rosset Fr. 16:45 Meeting Studio 315 Ideology, Rebellion, and Grandstanding in the Chair: Clara Brandi British House of Commons Discussant: Gerald Schneider Justin Kirkland, Joseph Lazzaro and Jonathan Slapin Rethinking the EU-Turkey Relations in the Context of Contemporary Challenges to European Security 208 Helin Alagöz Gessler Class Politics Sa. 9:00 Understanding Germany’s Role in the Formation Meeting Studio 206 of Turkey’s EU Path Ebru Turhan Chair: Aki Matsuo Discussant: Aki Matsuo Individual Values and Attitudes towards European Integration Relationships between Left-of-Centre Parties Erik R. Tillman and Trade Unions in the 21st century: Evidence from 12 Mature Democracies Building Capacity - Administrative Reform in EU Elin Haugsgjerd Allern, Tim Bale, Simon Otjes Candidate States and Vibeke Wøien Hansen Graeme Crouch Why Social Democratic Parties in Western If you cannot win on policy, propose inefficiency Europe Do Not Appeal to Left Authoritarian Christophe Crombez and Pieterjan Vangerven Voters? Evidence from the Netherlands, 1994-- 2012 Kirill Zhirkov Saturday, 25-6-2016 Changing Effects of Class on Party Choice in the Czech Republic 1990-2013 9:00-10:45 Lukas Linek

112 The same Left-Right across the Atlantic? Legislative Careers Comparing the dimensionality of the issue space Sa. 9:00 across seven countries. Meeting Studio 204 Aldo Paparo

Chair: Philipp Koker Discussant: Jeffrey Timmons

226 Magda Giurcanu Extreme Parties and the Radicalization of the Political Centre Sa. 9:00 252 Meeting Studio 211 Trust and Cooperation Sa. 9:00 Chair: Peter Stone Meeting Studio 213 Discussant: Erica Edwards Chair: Florian Kern Language, national identity and vote choice in Discussant: Thomas Leeper Catalonia, 1984-2015 Lluis Orriols and Pablo Simón The Legitimacy of Global Private Environmental Governance: A View from the Public Two-dimensional policy trade-offs and the Fabian Guy Neuner politics of assembling electoral coalitions Tarik Abou-Chadi and Markus Wagner Trust, Left-Right Ideology and Government Intervention How do mainstream parties respond to credible Simon Otjes threats by extreme parties? Florian Foos and Daniel Bischof Dynamic Policy Problems, Time Preferences, and Risk Aversion Niche Parties Between Policy, Votes and Office Michael M. Bechtel and Kenneth Scheve Daniel Bischof, Patrick Dumont and Kaare W. Strøm The Democratic Legitimacy of Peace: Social Preferences, Victimhood, and the Colombian Peace Process Gregory J. Love and Ryan E. Carlin

237 New Parties 263 Sa. 9:00 Predicting Public Opinion Meeting Studio 212 Sa. 9:00 Meeting Studio 214 Chair: Inaki Sagarzazu Discussant: Till Weber Chair: Mark Pickup Discussant: Michael Lewis-Beck The Relationship Between Populist Radical Right Political Parties And Far-Right Hate Crimes The Impact of Social Networks on Citizen Benjamin Farrer and Niklas Harder Forecasts Debra Leiter, Andreas Murr, Ericka Rascon and Party system volatility and the emergence of Mary Stegmaier new parties Holger Döring Vicious and virtuous at the same time? Media usage, support for democratic governance and Niche versus Mainstream Parties and Adaptation political efficacy in four Western European to Public Opinion Shifts in Latin America countries Theresa Kernecker Bruno Wüest

Understanding the Success of New Anti- Constructive Tweets? Novel Signals from within European Union Parties at European Parliament the EP Legislative Process Elections: Why They Matter!

William T Daniel, Steffen Hurka and Lukas Beyond stability: The political sources of Obholzer widening central bank mandates in developing countries A proposal of visual framing analysis in Twitter Florence Dafe during political campaigns Marta Portalés Oliva and Raquel Quevedo Redondo 522 Political Dynasties Sa. 9:00 316 Meeting Studio 312 Conflict, Peace and Public Opinion Sa. 9:00 Chair: Virginia Oliveros Meeting Studio 216 Discussant: Pedro Riera

Chair: Tobias Hofmann Electoral Reform and Dynastic Politics Discussant: Patrick Kuhn Alexandra Cirone and Carlos Velasco Rivera

The Sources of Territorial Conflict: A Public An Electoral Model of Political Dynasties Opinion Approach Alberto Batinti, Sam Ghosh, Quan Wen, and Guy Grossman, Devorah Mankein and Tamar Bingyong Zheng Mitts Constitutional Monarchs in Democracies: Contagious Issue Rivalries: The Emergence and Commit to Silence or Intervene in Politics? Spread of Maritime Boundary Disputes Kana Inata Umut Yüksel The Persistence of Political Dynasties - Theory Can crises contribute to peace? Enduring rivals and Evidence from India and perceptual adjustment Siddharth Eapen George and Dominic Ponattu Vassilis Kappis

542 501 Global Governance Delegation and Committee Politics Sa. 9:00 Sa. 9:00 Meeting Studio 313 Meeting Studio 311 Chair: Markus Wagner Chair: Covadonga Meseguer Discussant: Despina Alexiadou Discussant: Dennis Quinn

Committees and Distortionary Vagueness Models of democracy and global governance: Nicole Rae Baerg and Colin Krainin citizens' views Tina Freyburg, Steffen Mohrenberg and Sandra The Electoral Costs of Policy Commitments Lavenex Timm Betz The Impact of International Conditionality on Is Central Bank Independence Always a Good the Formation of Regime Types Thing? Zarina Burkadze Michael Aklin and Andreas Kern Accountable Regulators: To Whom? Factor and Cluster Analysis of Survey Data for National Regulatory Authorities

Mats Bergman and Anh Mai The Diffusion of Policy Perceptions: Evidence from a Structural Topic Model 713 Fabrizio Gilardi, Charles Shipan and Bruno Wüest Attribution of Political Responsibility Sa. 9:00 Meeting Studio 314 Saturday 11:00-12:45

Chair: Lawrence Ezrow 111 Discussant: Orit Kedar Legislative Committees Sa. 11:00 Social Identity and attribution of political Meeting Studio 204 responsibility Dominik Duell and Daniel Müller Chair: Brenda Van Coppenolle Discussant: Fabio Franchino Coalition bargaining duration in multiparty democracies Personal ambitions, expertise or parties’ Alejandro Ecker and Thomas M. Meyer choices? Understanding committee assignments in the Italian Chamber of Deputies Accountability through government alternation: Daniela Giannetti, Andrea Pedrazzani and Luca The role of economic performance and the Pinto conditional effect of political institutions Alessando Pellegata and Mario Quaranta Modeling Changes in Legislators’ Use of Information Sources in the U.S. Policy Process: Unfulfilled Pledges and Responsibility An Application Study of Latent Transition Attribution in Coalition Governments Analysis Nick Lin, Katsunori Seki and Nikoleta Yordanova Chi (Dawn) Chang, Cynthia Jackson-Elmoore, Frank Lawrence, and Kent Dell

726 Better safe than sorry? Strategic delegation in International Policy Diffusion the European Parliament Sa. 9:00 Lukas Obholzer, Michael Kaeding and Steffen Meeting Studio 315 Hurka

Chair: Fabiana Machado Information and Expertise: Lessons from Discussant: Liam McGrath Committees' Behaviour in Parliamentary Systems International diffusion and the convergence of Patrícia Calca competition policy Christel Koop and Philip Kessler

Convergence, Diffusion and Partisan Learning - The Development of European Affairs 113 Committees Revisited Legislative Obstruction in Parliament Roman Senninger Sa. 11:00 Meeting Studio 206 Institutional Lock-in and the Limits of Diffusion: Evidence from Non-Trade Issues in Preferential Chair: Johan Hellström Trade Agreements Discussant: Jonathan Polk Lisa Lechner

Legislative Obstruction in Times of Crisis Corruption and Gendered Perceptions of Elites Sven-Oliver Proksch in Spain and Portugal Leslie Schwindt-Bayer, Tània Verge and Nina Making Yourself Heard, even if in Opposition: Wiesehomeier RCV Requests in the German State Parliaments, 1947-2011 Can the Gender Gap in Political Ambition be Christian Stecker and Valentin Schröder Mitigated? Evidence from one field experiment and two survey experiments Policy-Making Power of Opposition Parties Florian Foos and Fabrizio Gilardi Simone Wegmann Gender stereotyping in new politics: old traits Between Cooperation and Exclusion: The Israeli for new parties? Parliamentary Opposition: 2003-2013 Marta Fraile, Mónica Ferrín and Gema García- Or Tuttnauer Albacete

215 The Gender Composition of Images of the US Interested Parties and Public Policies Congress in Mass Media and Its Effects Sa. 11:00 Angela Bos, Kjersten Nelson and Bas van Doorn Meeting Studio 211

Chair: Arjan Schakel 239 Discussant: Christian Schuster Social Media and Politics Sa. 11:00 Regionalization and representation deficits Meeting Studio 213 Jochen Müller and Christian Stecker Chair: Haifeng Huang How Race, Ethnicity, and Party Shape Discussant: Camilo Cristancho Perceptions of Commonality on Public Policy and Legislative District Composition Preferences Contentious politics on Twitter: A Jason Casellas, Sophia J. Wallace and Daniel Q. methodological approach to social media Gillion research in protest politics Camilo Cristancho More equal than we think? Investigating the policy representation of women and men in Information Technology and Political Europe Engagement: Mixed Evidence from Uganda Stefanie Reher Guy Grossman, Macartan Humphreys and Gabriella Sacramone-Lutz The effect of the 1984/85 British miners' strikes on social cooperation: there's no such thing as Technological Strategies for Mobilization: The society anymore? Case of Strategic Language Choice in Ukraine Jonathan Chapman and Samantha Meyers Megan Metzger

Measuring Political Reporters’ Interactivity with 214 Politicians and the Public on Twitter Gender Gap in Voter Perceptions John Parmelee, Berrin Beasley, Stephynie Sa. 11:00 Perkins and Nataliya Roman Meeting Studio 212

Chair: Sarah Dingler 109 Discussant: Maria Sobolewska EU Governing Institutions Sa. 11:00

Meeting Studio 214 321 Refugee Politics Chair: Gerald Schneider Sa. 11:00 Discussant: Radoslaw Zubek Meeting Studio 311

The Council Presidency and the Greek Debt Chair: Amelie Godefroidt Crisis: the Predictions of the Presidency Effect Discussant: Florian Bader Doreen Allerkamp Refugees and the UN Security Council The Institutional Evolution of the Council of the Moritz Marbach European Union Amie Kreppel Re-evaluating the Utility of Economic Sanctions as a Foreign Policy Tool: Lessons from the Protecting or Protesting the Pink?: LGBT Rights Recent Ukrainian Crisis in the European Parliament Yoshiharu Kobayashi and Jee-Kwang Park Martijn Mos War Mediation Mwita Chacha Informal Interinstitutional Bargaining in the EU. Shirking Agents or loyal Representatives? Networks of Communication and Refugees in Philipp Broniecki Civil War Benjamin Laughlin

265 Policy Related Voting 503 Sa. 11:00 The Words of Political Leaders Meeting Studio 216 Sa. 11:00 Meeting Studio 312 Chair: Fabian Neuner Discussant: Sergi Pardos-Prado Chair: William Daniel Discussant: Slava Mikhaylov It's not easy being green: Why voters shift right during downturns What are they Talking About? Leaders’ Attention Tarik Abou-Chadi and Mark Kayser to and Position on the Economic Crisis and the EU Unemployment and economic voting in Greece: Gijs Schumacher, Martijn Schoonvelde, Evidence from a survey experiment Tanushree Dahiya and Erik de Vries Roula Nezi, Iannis Konstantinidis and Kostas Gemenis Who benefits from distributive Politics? Analyzing African Party Manifestos Why Do Voters Change their Mind during Mascha Rauschenbach and Zachary Greene Election Campaigns? A Comparative Analysis of the Determinants of Election Campaign Volatility `Truthful lips endure forever': Political Speech in in Western Democracies Religious Sermons - a Text-Mining Approach Simon Willocq Constantine Boussalis, Travis Coan,and Mirya R Holman Heterogeneous Mecroeconomic Voting: Evidence from the UK Careerists versus Coal-Miners: How British MPs’ Julian Schuessler Social Backgrounds affect their Support for Welfare Reform Tom O'Grady

523 715 Trade Protection Representation in Legislatures Sa. 11:00 Sa. 11:00 Meeting Studio 313 Meeting Studio 315

Chair: Timm Betz Chair: Ozge Kemahlioglu Discussant: Mark Manger Discussant: Simon Hix

Norwegian Rhapsody: Estimating the Gains from Voting at the Margins: Electoral Volatility, List Political and Economic Integration Placement, and MEP Defection Nauro F. Campos, Fabrizio Coricelli and Luigi Stephen Meserve, Joseph Robbins and Frank Moretti Thames

Behind the Barrier: Trade Protection and Minority MPs in the German Bundestag: Political Connections in Autocracies Between Minority Representation and Ferdinand Eibl and Adeel Malik Individual Career Paths Legislative Politics Stefanie Bailer, Christian Breunig, Nathalie Giger, The Great Trade Collapse and Uneven Shocks: Andreas Wüst Shock Amplifiers and Absorbers in Global Value Chains Gender quotas in European Elections and their Zhengqi Pan effect on political performance in the European Parliament Remittances and Central Bank Independence Eva-Maria Euchner and Elena Frech Carolina Garriga de Phillips and Covadonga Meseguer Political Cycles and Voting Cohesion in the European Parliament Christel Koop, Christine Reh and Edoardo 711 Bressanelli The Local Vote Sa. 11:00 Meeting Studio 314

Chair: Caroline McEvoy Discussant: Aaron Kamm Saturday 13:00-15:00

Tolerance and Dissent in the American States Christopher Claassen and James L. Gibson 129 United we Pull in Different Directions Political responsiveness in the German federal Sa. 13:00 states Meeting Studio 204 Lars Mader Chair: Anne Rasmussen Place, Size and Representation in Local Electoral Discussant: Martin Schoonvelde Turnout Joan-Josep Vallbé and Jaume Magre Fear, anger and enthusiasm about the EU: Effects of emotional reactions on public 50 Shades of Grey: Electoral Rules, Constituency preferences towards European integration Spending and the Cultivation of Personal Vote Sofia Vasilopoulou and Markus Wagner Elias Dinas, and Konstantinos Matakos

National vs European solidarity in the sovereign debt crisis: laboratory experiments on charitable A Field Experiment Mobilizing Convicted Felons giving in Spain and the Netherlands to Vote: Effects on Turnout and Trust in Theresa Kuhn and Aaron Kamm Government Victoria Shineman Devising a European Identity on a Platform of Diversity: Influences and Outcomes Neighborhood effects on voter turnout: Cross- Albana Shehaj sectional and longitudinal evidence from Germany The Opinion-Policy Nexus in the European Union Carl Clemens Berning Christopher Wratil Turnout in New Democracies Nasos Roussias 205 The State and the Economy Core and Peripheral Voters: Determinants of Sa. 13:00 Turnout Across Elections and the Habitual Effect Meeting Studio 206 of Voting Yosef Bhatti, Jens Olav Dahlgaard, Jonas Chair: Andreas Kern Hedegaard Hansen and Kasper Møller Hansen Discussant: Sarah Berens Eligibility and Immigrant Turnout: Evidence from Desert, responsibility, need and political a Regression Discontinuity Design convictions: Determinants of the willingness to Jeremy Ferwerda, Henning Finseraas, and redistribute Johannes Bergh Joachim Behnke and Florian Bader

Political economy of multilateral trade policy: 238 Explaining the EU and the USâ€™ compliance at Too Much is Too Much: Attitudes toward WTO dispute settlement and the impact of Europe global value Sa. 13:00 Aydin Yildirim Meeting Studio 212

Class vs. Ethnic Identity: Evidence on Declining Chair: Lukas Obholzer Redistribution from US States Discussant: Bernard Steunenberg Konstantinos Matakos and Dimitrios Xefteris

Income loss risk, fairness considerations and Explaining participation bias in the European support for redistribution Commission’s online consultations: The strive Jordi Muñoz and Jordi Garcia Muniesa for policy gain without too much pain Vibeke Wøien Hansen and Maiken Røed Economic and Political Inequality Francesc Amat and Pablo Beramendi Attitudes towards Europe and vote choice in Italian elections: an examination of the panel data 219 Sanja Badanjak Voter Participation Sa. 13:00 The Dynamics of Collective Opinion about Meeting Studio 211 European Integration in an Enlarged Europe: The impact of internal migration Chair: Eri Bertsou Anne-Marie Jeannet Discussant: Victoria Shineman

Are party elites able to communicate the official party stances to the voters? An analysis of elite Donor accountability reconsidered: Aid communication on European policy issues allocation in the age of global public goods Johan Hellström Chandreyee Bagchi, Paula Castro and Katharina Michaelowa The Eurosceptic citizen: understanding and explaining popular Euroscepticism Aiding Peace: Donor Behavior in Conflict- Francesco Capuzzi Affected Countries Susanna Campbell and Michael Findley

306 Fueling Conflict? (De)Escalation and bilateral aid Economic and Political Shocks Richard Bluhm, Martin Gassebner, Sarah Sa. 13:00 Langlotz and Paul Schaudt Meeting Studio 213 Citizens’ preferences for international Chair: Maria Jose Hierro governance designs. Experimental evidence Discussant: Nils Steiner from European established democracies Tina Freyburg, Steffen Mohrenberg, Sandra Lavenex, Daniel Kübler, Thomas Bernauer, Feeling the pinch: Economic shocks, government Michael Buess, Christian Ewert, and Thomas credibility and mass mobilization Winzen Kristian Skrede Gleditsch and Gerald Schneider Information, Transparency, and Credit Claiming Watch Your Words, They Become Actions: in Aid Allocation and Support: A Field Territorial Framing in Mobilization for Self- Experiment among Elected and Non-Elected Determination Officials in Malawi Friederike Luise Kelle Ryan Jablonski and Brigitte Zimmerman

Predictably Unpredictable: The Limits of Conflict Forecasting 410 Thomas Chadefaux The Model Space and the Variables that Matter Sa. 13:00 Ecological fallacies in quantitative conflict Meeting Studio 216 studies: Survey data to the rescue? Leila Demarest and Arnim Langer Chair: Philipp Harfst Discussant: Guy Grossman Do socioeconomic and political inequalities coalesce or merely coincide in the build-up to Power in Qualitative Comparative Analysis ethnic conflict? Ingo Rohlfing Ludovico Alcorta, Jeroen Smits, and Haley Swedlund Machine Learning and Multilevel Regression with Post-Stratification Philipp Broniecki, Lucas Leemann, and Reto Wüest 317 The Politics of International Aid Which Variables Matter? A Method for Sa. 13:00 Identifying Optimal Minimum Sets of Variables Meeting Studio 214 Underlying Political Behavior Stefan Dantchev and Stephanie Dornschneider Chair: Patrick Bayer Discussant: Cameron Thies The Sensitivity of Sensitivity Tests

Thomas Plümper and Richard Traunmüller Political Bargaining and Interest Group Communication Strategies Sensitivity Analysis for Differences in Differences Sebastian Koehler Luke Keele, Jesse Hsu, and Dylan Small In the interest of labor: How trade unions shape tax policy in economically advanced 504 democracies State Formation Despina Alexiadou and Achim Kemmerling Sa. 13:00 Meeting Studio 311 Interest Groups and Accountability Traps Dimitri Landa and Patrick Le Bihan Chair: Francesca Jensenius Discussant: Milan Svolik The Interaction of Interests: Rulemaking and Societal Welfare Peter Bils and Lawrence Rothenberg War mobilization or war destruction? The unequal rise of wealth taxation revisited Lukas Haffert 535 Democratic Politics and Redistribution State Formation and Social Conflict: The Political Sa. 13:00 Economy of the Swiss Old Confederacy Meeting Studio 313 Jakob Schneebacher Chair: Malte Lierl The Impact of Independence-War Dynamics on Discussant: Morgens Justesen Post-Independence Fiscal Capacity in Spanish America Election Cycles and Redistribution with Myopic Luz Marina Arias and Luis de la Calle Voters: Evidence from Disaster Relief Allocations Michael Bechtel and Massimo Mannino Caught in tidal waves: Leader’s ethnicity, democratization spillovers, and civil war Food aid: for food security or for making Nils W. Metternich politics? Evidence on U.S. food aid during the Cold War. Norms as Incomplete Contracts: Contesting Jan Faakowski Ambiguous Norms in a Post-Enlargement Europe Martijn Mos Why does democracy lead to better environmental outcomes? Disentangling the effects of civil society, elections and free press. 515 Marina Povitkina Interest Bargaining Sa. 13:00 The social investment strategy and EU welfare Meeting Studio 312 states: same recipe but different outcomes? Stefano Ronchi Chair: Valentin Gold Discussant: Simon Weschle Civil Service and Patronage in Bureaucracies John Huber and Michael Ting Climate Regulations and Carbon Pricing: Business Preferences for the European Emission Trading Scheme 505 Federica Genovese and Endre Tvinnereim Choosing Electoral Systems Sa. 13:00 Meeting Studio 314

Saturday 15:15-17:00 Chair: Holger Döring Discussant: Anthony McGann 223 Choosing electoral systems: Theory and The Political Game and Voter Responses evidence from a PR system with both open and Sa. 15:15 closed lists Meeting Studio 204 Dominik Hangartner, Nelson Ruiz-Guarin, and Janne Tukiainen Chair: Tarik Abou-Chadi Discussant: Chris Dawes Information Aggregation in Multi-District Elections The Power of Brexit Arguments: A Survey Niall Hughes Experiment of the Impact of Economic, Cultural and Political Arguments on Support for In the Shadow of Political Selection: Public Leaving/Remaining in the EU Spending Cycles under One-party Rule Matthew Goodwin, Simon Hix and Mark Pickup Jinxu Tang Party Policy Diffusion Conditions Political Geography of Lobbying Tobias Böhmelt, Lawrence Ezrow, Ron Lehrer, Benjamin Barber IV and Hugh Ward

322 Who responds? A field experiment in the Trade Policies for Protectionist Governments context of the Swiss elections 2015 Sa. 13:00 Nathalie Giger, Simon Lanz and Catherine de Meeting Studio 315 Vries

Chair: Carie Steele Citizens’ Responses to Constrained Political Discussant: Jason Davis Choice Sara B. Hobolt and Julian Hoerner Seal the Cheap Deal: Fear of Losing Office and the Duration of Trade Negotiations Lisa Lechner and Simon Wüthrich 227 Voting Rules EU Trade and Development Policy: Do EU Sa. 15:15 Preferential Trade Agreements alter Meeting Studio 206 Development Aid? Clara Brandi and Svea Koch Chair: Konstantinos Matakos Discussant: Patricia Calca Does Trust Matter for Institutional Design? Evidence from Preferential Trade Agreements Can political decentralisation increase the Manfred Elsig and Simon Wüthrich probabilities of party survival? Sofia Collignon Delmar Trading on Good Governance: Political Transformation and WTO Membership Mechanical and Psychological Effects of Jamie E. Scalera Electoral Systems: A Dynamic Perspective Jessica Fortin-Rittberger, Philipp Harfst, Sarah Dingler, and Julian Noseck

More local, less predictable? The impact of preference votes on the election results at different levels of government

Adam Gendzwill and Kamil Marcinkiewicz Party system Europeanization and electoral volatility: evidence from European democracies Congruence within Proportional Representation Sanja Badanjak Systems Hasret Dikici Bilgin and Ozge Kemahlioglu Presidents and the Electoral Performance of Prime Ministers Edward Morgan-Jones and Petra Schleiter 242 Election Forecasting Sa. 15:15 301 Meeting Studio 211 Conflict signalling Sa. 15:15 Chair: Matthias Mader Meeting Studio 213 Discussant: Simon Munzert Chair: Alberto Batinti Has Polarization in the U.S. Killed the Study of Discussant: Adam Meirowitz Presidential Approval? Paul M. Kellstedt and Matthew Lebo Legal ethical and political implications of US drone warfare Citizen forecasting v. pocketbook forecasting: Sana Mir Are two heads better than one? Andreas Murr, Mary Stegmaier and Michael Depth, Participation, and the Strategic Logic of Lewis-Beck International Treaties Xinyuan Dai and Alexandros Tokhi Multicandidate Elections: Aggregate Uncertainty in the Laboratory Tug of War; Civil-Military Power Struggles and Laurent Bouton, Micael Castanheira and Aniol International Conflict Llorente-Saguer Anne Sartori

Forecasting elections in multi-party systems Endogenous Third-Party Selection: Ex-Ante Matthias Orlowski and Lukas Stoetzer Inefficiency in Interim Bargaining Jin Yeub Kim

254 524 Electoral Performance The Geography of Representation Sa. 15:15 Sa. 15:15 Meeting Studio 212 Meeting Studio 214

Chair: Roula Nezi Chair: Emanuel Coman Discussant: Damien Bol Discussant: Stefanie Reher

Opposition Parties, Power, and Satisfaction with Institutions, Geography, and Natural Disasters: Democracy Evidence from the American States Simone Wegmann Alejandro Quiroz Flores

Towards the personalization of EU electoral Organized Conflict, Climate Stability, and politics? Candidate evaluations and party choice Strategic Coordination in the 2014 European Parliament elections Steven Landis and Cameron Thies Katjana Gattermann Claes de Vreese

Revenue Shocks from Natural Resources and Michael Meffert Local Government Spending: A Case from the United States The informative effects of electoral campaigns: Michael Sances and Hye Young You A panel analysis of the Spanish 2015 electoral campaign Gema García-Albacete, Marta Fraile and Mónica 712 Ferrín Party Strategy and Electoral Success Sa. 15:15 On deciding what to vote: How the election Meeting Studio 216 campaign serves different purposes. Sveinung Arnesen and Mikael Johannesson Chair: Pablo Simón Discussant: Roni Lehrer 107 How did the 2010 US campaign finance Constituencies and Policies regulation changes affect contribution Sa. 15:15 strategies? Meeting Studio 312 Andrew Peterson Chair: Elin Allern From Parties’ Policy Supply to Declared Discussant: Julian Horner Government Positions: Who Affects the Coalition Agreement on the Left-right and on the Information as the currency of interest group Welfare Dimensions and Why influence: are the policy benefits associated with Fedra Negri acquiring information equally distributed across types of interests? The Volatility of Political Choices: The Role of David Marshall Conservatism and Context on the Electoral Success of the Far-Right and Populist Parties Is the EU promoting pluralism? Evidence from Flavio Azevedo and Wolfgang Steinel interest groups funding mechanisms Marcel Hanegraaf and Michele Crepaz Following the Party’s or Leader’s Lead? Experimental Evidence on Partisan Cue Taking in The paradox of collective action and interest Turkey representation: Linking interest aggregation and S. Erdem Aytaç and Ali Çarkoglu interest articulation in EU Legislative Lobbying Iskander De Bruycker and Jan Beyers

716 Deviant Choices: A Deeper Dive on Economic Electoral Campaigns Policy Preferences and Two-Party Vote in the Sa. 15:15 United States Meeting Studio 311 Gary Segura

Chair: Carol Berning Discussant: Eline de Rooij

Evaluating Gendered Attacks in American Political Campaigns Erin Cassese and Mirya Holman

When Party and Issue Preferences Clash: Selective Exposure and Attitudinal Depolarization

Index Aaldering, 21 Beasley, 44 Abou-Chadi, 13, 32, 41, 45, 50 Beber, 33, 38 Abouharb, 28 Bechtel, 26, 41, 49 Ackermann, 18 Beck, 39 Adascalitei, 27 Becker, 38 Aguilar, 23 Behnke, 19, 39, 47 Ahlquist, 15 Beiser, 18 Ahmed, 12, 23, 37 Belford, 20 Aklin, 42 Bell, 25 Akoz, 36 Bennett, 36 Alagöz Gessler, 40 Benoit, 1, 25 Alamos-Concha, 22 Benstead, 28, 36 Alcorta, 48 Bentsen, 23 Aldashev, 37 Beramendi, 19, 38, 47 Alexiadou, 34, 42, 49 Berens, 11, 26, 47 Allerkamp, 24, 45 Bergh, 47 Allern, 40, 52 Bergman, 43 Amat, 32, 38, 47 Bernauer, 30, 48 Anderson, 19 Bernhagen, 37 ANG, 36 Berning, 47, 52 Arenas, 33 Bernini, 37 Ares, 24, 26 Bertelli, 30 Ari, 36 Bertsou, 21, 34, 47 Arias, 49 Betz, 18, 30, 42, 46 Arnesen, 52 Beyer, 37 Arumugam, 19 Beyers, 52 Ascencio, 19 Bhavnani, 15, 19, 28 Asgeirsdottir, 33, 38 Bilgin, 51 Auerbach, 27 Birch, 12, 25 Aytaç, 52 Birney, 22, 24 Aytaç, 36 Bisbee, 24 Azevedo, 52 Bischof, 41 Badanjak, 47, 51 Black, 23 Bader, 39, 45, 47 Blair, 22 Baerg, 15, 42 Blais, 34 Bagchi, 48 Blaydes, 23, 26 Bailer, 19, 46 Bodanac, 14 Bakkalbasioglu, 23 Böhmelt, 39, 50 Bakker, 31 Boix, 32 Bale, 40 Bol, 34, 51 Ban, 30 Bølstad, 20 Barber, 19, 50 Bolton, 20 Barbera, 15, 25, 38 Bormann, 18, 32 Barbéra, 35 Borzyskowski, 28, 33, 37 Barclay, 37 Bos, 44 Basnak, 20 Boussalis, 34, 45 Batinti, 42, 51 Bouteca, 13 Baturo, 25 Bouton, 51 Bauer, 18, 35 Bowler, 23, 39 Bayer, 25, 36, 48 Brandi, 40, 50

Bräuninger, 31 Coman, 13, 51 Bremer, 13 Conley, 18 Bressanelli, 46 Conrad, 12 Breunig, 1, 25, 38, 46 Cook, 12, 18, 35 Broniecki, 45, 48 Cooper, 22 Bronner, 21 Copelovitch, 15 Buckley, 15 Coppock, 22 Buess, 48 Coricelli, 46 Bunea, 12, 24 Cormack-Patton, 26 Bunte, 15, 22 Cotton, 16 Burkadze, 12, 42 Courtney, 10, 18, 27 Burlacu, 10, 27, 31 Crepaz, 52 Busemeyer, 15 Cristancho, 44 Calca, 43, 50 Crombez, 10, 17, 20, 29, 40 Calvet, 30 Cross, 20 Campbell, 39, 48 Crouch, 40 Campos, 33, 46 Curini, 31 Capuzzi, 48 Curto, 36 Cardenal, 10 D’heer, 13 Çarkoglu, 52 Dadasov, 24, 35 Carlin, 41 Dafe, 19, 42 Carlotti, 17 Dahiya, 45 Carroll, 12, 14 Dahlum, 11 Carvajal, 29 Dai, 51 Casellas, 20, 44 Dallendörfer, 11 Cassani, 22 Dandoy, 33 Cassese, 52 Daniel, 42, 45 Castanheira, 1, 18, 51 Dantchev, 48 Castro, 48 Dassonneville, 1, 33 Cederman, 38 Davis, 12, 15, 50 Ceron, 31, 34 Dawes, 32, 50 Chacha, 45 De Bruycker, 14, 52 Chacon, 19 de Geus, 24 Chadefaux, 11, 18, 48 De Juan, 25, 38 Chang, 25, 43 de la Calle, 49 Chapman, 10, 22, 44 De Magalhaes, 17, 24 Charnysh, 19 de Phillips, 46 Chauchard, 28, 35 de Romémont, 39 Chernykh, 25, 28 de Rooij, 14, 52 Chhibber, 19 De Sio, 31 Cho, 15 de Vreese, 51 Cingolani, 24, 29 de Vries, 45, 50 Ciocan, 11 Deckarm, 10 Cirone, 29, 34, 42 Degen, 39 Citi, 15, 38 Dell, 43 Claassen, 15, 28, 46 Dellepiane-Avellaneda, 39 Coan, 34, 45 Demarest, 48 Cohen, 27 Di Cataldo, 35 Colantone, 13 Di Lonardo, 33 Colaresi, 1, 22, 38 Di Salvatore, 32 Collignon Delmar, 50 Dickson, 19, 29

Dimitrova, 20 Fouirnaies, 23, 30, 37 Dinas, 31, 36, 46 Fowler, 17 Dingler, 36, 44, 50 Fraile, 44, 52 Donnelly, 18, 31 Franchino, 1, 17, 43 Döring, 17, 41, 50 Frech, 46 Dornschneider, 48 Freitag, 18 Doyle, 25 Freyburg, 18, 42, 48 Dragu, 19, 29, 30, 33 Fu, 35 Duch, 1, 30, 39 Gahner Larsen, 21 Duell, 20, 30, 34, 43 Galais, 10 Dulani, 36 Gallego, 17, 36 Dumont, 41 Gandrud, 38 Dür, 29, 35, 37 Ganghof, 26 Ecker, 43 Garces, 15 Ecker-Ehrhardt, 17, 35 Garcia Muniesa, 47 Edwards, 14, 17, 41 García-Albacete, 44, 52 Eggers, 1, 15, 23 Garmendia, 38 Ehret, 15, 19 Garrett, 10 Eibl, 46 Garritzmann, 15, 32 Eichorst, 28, 39 Gattermann, 21, 31, 51 Elff, 15, 25, 27 Gelepithis, 26 Elkink, 25, 38 Gemenis, 15, 20, 45 Elsig, 50 Gendzwill, 51 Endrich, 23 Genovese, 39, 49 Engelbrekt, 22 Gentili, 19 English, 37 George, 42 Epifanio, 24 Georgieva, 27 Eppner, 26 Gerring, 22 Erikson, 11, 22, 30 Ghosh, 42 Erisen, 11, 20, 26 Giani, 37 Esen, 10 Giannetti, 15, 43 Estapia, 36 Gibson, 46 Euchner, 46 Giebler, 18, 31 Ewert, 48 Giger, 25, 46, 50 Ezrow, 43, 50 Gilardi, 43, 44 Faakowski, 49 Gillion, 44 Facchini, 37 Giurcanu, 10, 41 Falcó-Gimeno, 17 Gleditsch, 48 Fan, 30 Göbel, 21 Farrer, 41 Goddard, 36 Fazekas, 21 Godefroidt, 32, 45 Fenzl, 18 Gohdes, 28, 33 Fernandez-Albertos, 13, 24 Goist, 32 Fernandez-Vazquez, 12, 35 Gold, 26, 49 Ferrín, 44, 52 Goldberg, 34 Ferwerda, 28, 47 Golden, 16, 24 Findley, 48 Golder, 37 Finseraas, 21, 26, 47 Golub, 12 Fogarty, 12, 15 Goodwin, 50 Foos, 14, 28, 32, 41, 44 Goplerud, 39 Fortunato, 14, 21, 27, 34 Gordon, 29

Grafstein, 12, 33 Huang, 20, 21, 44 Greene, 20, 21, 31, 38, 45 Huber, 29, 35, 49 Grittersova, 15, 19 Hudson, 29 Grossman, 42, 44, 48 Hug, 17, 25, 28 Grotz, 27 Hughes, 50 Gschwend, 19, 23, 30, 32, 37 Humphreys, 19, 22, 44 Guntermann, 14 Hurka, 42, 43 Habel, 21 Huysmans, 29 Haber, 31, 35 Ibenskas, 24 Hadar, 29 Immergut, 31 Haffert, 37, 49 Inamasu, 14 Hainmueller, 20, 21 Inata, 42 Halevy, 27 Indridason, 1, 17, 30, 37 Hall, 7, 17, 20, 30 Izzo, 30 Hallerberg, 13, 38 Jablonski, 36, 48 Han, 12 Jackson-Elmoore, 13, 43 Hancke, 39 Jankowski, 13, 33 Hanegraaf, 52 Jarosz, 26 Hangartner, 12, 20, 21, 39, 50 Jeannet, 47 Hansen, 14, 26, 27, 39, 40, 47 Jedenastik, 38 Hansson, 21 Jenny, 13 Harder, 33, 41 Jensen, 12, 33 Harfst, 31, 48, 50 Jensenius, 19, 49 Harris, 29, 38 Jha, 28 Harsgor, 33 Johannesson, 52 Haselmayer, 37 John, 29 Hauwaert, 37 Johnsen, 21 Helbling, 11, 20 Johnson, 22, 29 Hellström, 43 Jolly, 31 Hellström, 17, 48 Junior, 36 Hellwig, 25, 33 Jurado, 31, 33, 36 Hermansen, 10 Justesen, 11, 38, 49 Hernández, 24, 35 Kaeding, 43 Heyne, 17 Kamm, 34, 46, 47 Hidalgo, 22 Kao, 29 Hierro, 18, 48 Kappe, 20, 28 Hirnoven, 17 Kappis, 38, 42 Hix, 46, 50 Karol, 30, 36 Hobolt, 50 Kartik, 23, 30 Hoerner, 50 Katz, 19, 20 Hofmann, 28, 42 Kaufman, 38 Hollenbach, 18, 24 Kavakli, 12, 29 Hollibaugh, 20 Kayser, 1, 13, 26, 45 Hollyer, 20, 24, 35 Kedar, 1, 27, 43 Holman, 37, 45, 52 Keele, 49 Holtermann, 14 Kelle, 48 Hooghe, 34 Keller, 35 Hooijer, 39 Kellstedt, 21, 25, 51 Horner, 52 Kemahlioglu, 46, 51 Hovi, 14 Kemmerling, 49 Hsu, 49 Kern, 15, 32, 39, 41, 42, 47

Kernecker, 41 Laughlin, 45 Kessler, 43 Lavenex, 42, 48 Khadka, 38 Lawrence, 13, 43 Khanna, 19 Lazzaro, 40 Kijewski, 33 Le Bihan, 11, 30, 49 Killermann, 10 Lebo, 51 Kim, 19, 51 Lechner, 35, 43, 50 Kimbrough, 14 Lee, 14, 29 Kincaid, 28 Leemann, 10, 17, 48 Kinne, 22 Leeper, 21, 41 Kirkland, 40 Legge, 39 Kirschke, 38 Lehrer, 31, 50, 52 Klein, 34 Leininger, 17, 35 Klingler, 20 Leiter, 41 Klüver, 1, 10, 17, 26, 31, 34 León, 13, 33, 38 Knutsen, 11, 22, 27, 32 Leonard, 14 Kobayashi, 15, 45 Lewallen, 16 Koch, 50 Lewis-Beck, 33, 41, 51 Koehler, 49 Liang, 38 Kohama, 14 Lierl, 17, 49 Koker, 40 Liesch, 26 Köker, 30 Lin, 43 König, 24 Lind, 28, 31 Konstantinidis, 17, 21, 31, 36, 45 Lindstaedt, 12, 13, 36 Koop, 43, 46 Linek, 27, 40 Kortenska, 20 Lipsmeyer, 39 Kosmidis, 25, 27 Llorente-Saguer, 51 Kostadinova, 10 Long, 10, 32, 37 Kotsadam, 21, 32 Lorenz, 26 Koubi, 35, 39 Louwerse, 18, 21 Krainin, 42 Love, 34, 41 Krause, 30 Lucas, 17, 26, 38 Krauss, 26 Lühiste, 21, 27, 37 Kreppel, 34, 45 Luo, 24 Kroeber, 36, 43 Lupu, 15, 29, 32 Kruikemeier, 21 Lust, 24, 29 Kübler, 48 Lutz, 26 Kubo, 14, 34 Lydia, 27 Kuhn, 19, 22, 39, 42, 47 Machado, 36, 43 Kumar, 19 Mack, 12 Kuo, 24 Madarasz, 11 Kurella, 31 Madariaga, 33 Ladini, 28 Mader, 18, 29, 31, 46, 51 Landa, 20, 30, 49 Maekawa, 38 Landis, 51 Magre, 46 Landry, 24 Mai, 43 Langer, 32, 48 Malik, 46 Langlotz, 48 Mancosu, 28 Lankina, 11 Manger, 19, 46 Lannoo, 13 Mankein, 42 Lanz, 34, 50 Mannino, 49

Manzetti, 11 Moretti, 46 Marbach, 26, 39, 45 Morgan-Jones, 51 Marcinkiewicz, 33, 36, 51 Morin, 35 Mares, 11, 13, 35 Morisi, 37 Marino, 40 Morucci, 39 Marinova, 25 Mos, 45, 49 Markus, 23 Moser, 16 Marshall, 29, 37, 52 Moskowitz, 30 Martin, 17, 26, 27 Muchlinski, 25 Martin-Shields, 14 Müller, 13, 43, 44 Martocchia Diodati, 40 Mungiu-Pippidi, 35 Masch, 22 Muñoz, 32, 47 Mastrorocco, 35 Muntean, 27, 32 Matakos, 17, 46, 47, 50 Munzert, 21, 35, 38, 51 Matsuo, 14, 39, 40 Muriaas, 36 Mattes, 20 Murphy, 11 McElroy, 1, 17, 23, 36 Murr, 12, 27, 41, 51 McEvoy, 35, 46 Mutlu-Eren, 17 McGann, 39, 50 Nanou, 17, 20 McGrath, 13, 18, 43 Natalizia, 22 McKay, 34 Nath, 30 McKee, 37 Negri, 31, 52 McKenzie, 23 Neimanns, 15 Meffert, 10, 29, 52 Nelson, 44 Meirowitz, 11, 51 Nemoto, 33 Mendonça, 35 Neuenschwander, 28 Meredith, 11, 22, 27 Neumayer, 22, 29, 33 Meriläinen, 18 Neundorf, 1, 36 Merolla, 37 Neuner, 41, 45 Merz, 13 Nezi, 15, 45, 51 Meseguer, 42, 46 Nguyen, 30 Meserve, 14, 19, 46 Nisser, 19 Metternich, 25, 49 Noseck, 50 Metzger, 11, 44 Noury, 36 Meuleman, 32 Novaes, 17 Meyer, 21, 29, 38, 43 Nunez, 34 Meyers, 44 Nyhuis, 24 Michaelowa, 48 O’Grady, 45 Midjord, 16 Obholzer, 42, 43, 47 Mikhaylov, 28, 45 Oliveros, 29, 42 Mikulaschek, 28, 37 Olsen, 32 Milner, 14, 38 Orlowski, 22, 32, 51 Mir, 51 Orriols, 13, 41 Mitts, 42 Oser, 34 Mohrenberg, 42, 48 Oshri, 27 Møller, 32 Otjes, 40, 41 Monroe, 12, 34 Overby, 40 Montagnes, 26 Owens, 23 Montgomery, 22 Paetzel, 26 Moradi, 19 Paik, 19 Morelli, 11 Pamp, 22

Pan, 35, 46 Rasmussen, 29, 46 Pant, 28 Rauschenbach, 45 Paparo, 17, 40 Raymond, 39, 40 Papp, 40 Rayo, 11 Pappi, 31 Redlawsk, 20, 31 Pardos-Prado, 13, 26, 45 Reh, 46 Park, 38, 45 Reher, 29, 44, 51 Parmelee, 44 Reike, 12 Pastorella, 34 Rekker, 10 Pedrazzani, 43 Richter, 16 Peisakhin, 19, 21 Riera, 30, 42 Pellegata, 43 Riera Sagrera, 20 Pellicer, 28 Rios-Figueroa, 23 Pemstein, 13, 19 Robbins, 46 Pérez Durán, 24 Rodon, 32 Perkins, 44 Rodríguez Barraquer, 16 Peters, 39 Røed, 47 Peterson, 25, 52 Rohlfing, 48 Petrova, 27 Roman, 44 Petter, 39 Rommel, 26 Phadnis, 39 Ronchi, 49 Philips, 18, 39 Ropers, 26 Pickup, 14, 25, 41, 50 Rosema, 10 Pietrantuono, 21 Roseman, 20 Pilet, 34 Rosendorff, 24 Pinto, 22, 43 Rosset, 14, 40 Piotrowska, 28, 37 Rothenberg, 16, 49 Plescia, 32 Roussias, 14, 47 Plümper, 1, 22, 24, 33, 49 Rozenas, 11, 15, 21 Polga-Hecimovich, 39 Rubenson, 12, 32 Polk, 31, 43 Rubio, 36 Ponattu, 13, 42 Rudig, 19 Pond, 30 Rueda, 19 Popa, 14 Rüegger, 38 Portalés Oliva, 42 Ruiz-Guarin, 50 Portela, 33 Ruiz-Rufino, 12, 26 Povitkina, 49 Sacramone-Lutz, 44 Praprotnik, 31, 36 Sagarzazu, 12, 31, 41 Prato, 23 Sajuria, 19 Primus, 22 Sakstrup, 22 Proksch, 16, 34, 44 Sances, 52 Quaranta, 43 Sartori, 21, 51 Queralt, 13, 38 Sater, 16 Quevedo Redondo, 42 Savun, 32 Quimson, 36 Scalera, 50 Quinn, 33, 42 Schafer, 21 Quiroz Flores, 34, 51 Schäfer, 10, 28 Rader, 22, 27 Schaffer, 39 Rakner, 36 Schafflutzel, 28 Ramey, 20 Schakel, 31, 44 Rascon, 41 Schaudt, 48

Scheve, 13, 26, 41 Somer-Topcu, 11 Schimpf, 35 Sorace, 31 Schiumerini, 17, 23 Spilker, 18, 30, 39 Schleiter, 51 Spirig, 39 Schmotz, 12, 32 Spirling, 25 Schneebacher, 49 Spoon, 13, 17, 34 Schneider, 1, 12, 13, 19, 20, 40, 45, 48 Squintani, 11, 13 Schoonvelde, 31, 45, 46 Srivanasan, 11 Schröder, 28, 44 Staniek, 32 Schubiger, 28 Stanig, 13, 18 Schuessler, 45 Stankovic, 14 Schultze, 14 Stasavage, 13 Schumacher, 31, 45 Stecker, 14, 44 Schuster, 29, 44 Steele, 33, 50 Schwab, 23 Stegmaier, 1, 24, 41, 51 Schwartz, 11, 29 Steinel, 52 Schwindt-Bayer, 44 Steiner, 29, 31, 48 Segura, 25, 52 Sternberg, 23 Seki, 43 Steunenberg, 20, 47 Selb, 21 Stiers, 10 Selios, 32 Stockmann, 24, 35 Sellars, 29 Stoetzer, 32, 51 Semmelbeck, 18 Stone, 27, 41 Senninger, 43 Strøm, 41 Serena, 11, 14 Sudulich, 19, 34 Serra, 14, 32 Sun, 24 Sharkansky, 27 Svolik, 29, 49 Sheen, 36 Swalve, 38 Shehaj, 47 Swedlund, 48 Shikano, 12 Sylvan, 12, 14 Shim, 10 Synnøve, 10 Shin, 39 Tago, 14, 24 Shineman, 47 Tahk, 32, 39 Shipan, 43 Tang, 25, 28, 50 Shorrocks, 27 Tansey, 12 Shreve, 22 Teorell, 22 Shyu, 25 Tepe, 12, 13, 26 Siegel, 10 Tertytchnaya, 11 Siegenthaler, 34 Tesfaye, 28 Simon, 29 Testa, 37 Simón, 41, 52 Thames, 40, 46 Sinha, 12 Thies, 48, 51 Skaaning, 22, 32, 34 Thornton, 12 Skiple, 23, 28 Thorvaldsdottir, 33 Slapin, 30, 40 Thurner, 22, 27 Slothuus, 21 Tiede, 23, 27 Small, 49 Tiemann, 31 Smits, 48 Tillman, 40 Snyder, 23, 30 Times, 25 So, 26 Timmons, 16, 40 Sobolewska, 33, 37, 44 Ting, 20, 22, 49

Tkacova, 32 Wedeking, 23 Tokhi, 32, 51 Wegenast, 19 Torsvik, 21 Wegmann, 44, 51 Toubeau, 22, 25 Wegner, 25, 28 Toukan, 37 Weidmann, 19 Traber, 31 Weitzel, 11, 13 Traunmüller, 15, 20, 26, 49 Wen, 42 Troeger, 1, 18, 38 Werker, 23 Tromborg, 17 Weschle, 35, 49 Tukiainen, 18, 30, 50 Western, 25 Turgeon, 14, 21 Weymouth, 33 Turhan, 40 Whitten, 18, 39 Türk, 17 Wiesehomeier, 44 Tuttnauer, 44 Wig, 11, 25, 32 Tvinnereim, 49 Wijsman, 17 Tyson, 18 Wilhelm, 14 Valasek, 16, 34 Willocq, 45 Vallbé, 21, 46 Winkler, 19 Van Coppenolle, 34, 43 Winzen, 48 van de Wardt, 37 Wohlfarth, 23 van der Brug, 21, 39 Wolton, 23, 26, 30, 35 Van der Haer, 36 Workman, 25 van der Meer, 21 Wratil, 10, 17, 47 van der Velden, 34 Wu, 35 van Ditmars, 27 Wucherpfennig, 18, 32 van Doorn, 44 Wuest, 40 van Gruisen, 10 Wüest, 11, 41, 43, 48 van Heerde-Hudson, 19, 34 Wüst, 46 Van Weelden, 11, 23, 30 Wüthrich, 50 Vanberg, 1 Xefteris, 47 Vanden Eynde, 19 Xena, 13, 26 Vangerven, 40 Yan, 20, 26 Vasilopoulou, 46 Yeh, 21 Vasquez, 28 Yildirim, 12, 40, 47 Vassiliadis, 34 Yordanova, 43 Velasco Rivera, 42 You, 52 Verge, 27, 44 Young, 11 Verseckaite, 18 Yüksel, 42 Vivyan, 22, 31 Zakharov, 12, 15, 39 Vlandas, 39 Zapryanova, 17 Vranceanu, 37 Zechmeister, 37 Vreeland, 24 Zhang, 13, 24 Wagner, 11, 14, 25, 41, 42, 46 Zheng, 42 Wainfan, 29 Zhirkov, 40 Wallace, 44 Ziaja, 25 Walter, 15, 31, 36 Ziblatt, 21 Wang, 10, 24, 28, 36 Ziller, 11, 20 Wantchekon, 20 Zimmerman, 48 Ward, 20, 37, 50 Zittlau, 23 Warner, 32 Zubek, 25, 45 Weber, 27, 31, 41

Restaurants in Walking Distance

a) 1-5 minutes

K W I N T L'Ecailler du Palais Royal Mont des Arts 1 Rue Bodenbroek 18 Cuisine: Belgian, European, French Cuisine: French, Belgian http://www.kwintbrussels.com/fr/index.html http://www.lecaillerdupalaisroyal.be/

Lola Paradiso Place du Grand Sablon 33 Rue Duquesnoy 34 Cuisine: French, Belgian, Seafood Cuisine: Italian http://www.restolola.be/ http://www.resto-paradiso.be/

Aksum Coffee House Mim Rue des Eperonniers 60 Hofberg 2 Cuisine: Café Cuisine: European, Belgian http://aksumcoffeehouse.com/brussels/ http://www.mim.be/

B) 5-15 minutes

Al Barmaki Mati Rue des Eperonniers 67 Rue Duquesnoy 43 Cuisine: Lebanese, Mediterranean Cuisine: French, European, Gastropub http://www.albarmaki.be/ http://www.restaurantmati.be/

Feux de Bengale Le Cap Sablon Rue des Eperonniers 69 Rue Lebeau 75 Cuisine: Indian Cuisine: French, Belgian, International http://feuxdebengale.be/ http://sites.resto.com/capsablon/

L'Entrée des Artistes Pasta Divina Place du Grand Sablon 42 Bergstraat 16 Cuisine: Belgian, European, French Cuisine: Italian http://www.lentreedesartistes.be/ http://www.pastadivina.be/

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