i A PRE-FEASIBILITY STUDY 2012 JULY Prepared for Capricorn Enterprise Level 1, 130 Victoria Parade, Rockhampton, Q, 4700 P: (07) 4927 2055 | F: (07) 4922 2605 | www.capricornenterprise.com.au ABN 72 142 612 28110 Queensland Rail Travel Rail Centre 2, Level 2, 309 Edward Street, Brisbane, Q, 4700 P: (07) 3235 3647 | (07) 3235 1365 | queenslandrailtravel.com.au ABN 71 132 181 090 Prepared by Tanner Consulting 2B Denham Street, Rockhampton, Q, 4700 P: 4922 0911 | F: 4922 0955 | www.tannerconsulting.com.au ABN 23 047 923 373 Sub consultants: Daniel Williams, Director and Industrial Mathematics Consultant Mathops David French, Managing Director and Head of Financial Planning Capricorn Investment Partners Limited The information contained in this document produced by Tanner Consulting is solely for the use of the Client identified on the cover sheet for the purpose for which it has been prepared and Tanner Consulting undertakes no duty to or accepts any responsibility to any third party who may rely upon this document. All rights reserved. No section or element of this document may be removed from this document, reproduced, electronically stored or transmitted in any form without the written permission of Tanner Consulting. Cover images sourced from Flickr. ii Quality Information Document: Final Report Reference: 114ab Date: 27 July 2012 Prepared by Tanner Consulting Project Manager Sam Willoughby Reviewed by Client Project Director Julie Tanner Revision Date Details Authorised Name Authorised Signature 1 28 May 2012 Director Julie Tanner 2 31 May 2012 Sub Consultant David French 3 31 May 2012 Sub consultant Daniel Williams 4 31 May 2012 Client review Neil Lethlean iii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Central Queensland area finds itself at the leading edge of an economic boom, driven by the separate products both related to the increased global need for energy sources. The current boom in coal began several years ago, with many more mines yet to come on-stream or to reach potential output. More recently, improved technologies have led to the commercialisation of coal seam gas. An investment commitment totalling more than $60 billion is associated with the development. The Port of Gladstone is pivotal to the export of these natural resources and products to worldwide customers. While Gladstone is benefiting from the investment there is an unintended consequence that is putting substantial pressure on the Gladstone community. Gladstone is a relatively small city with limited housing and social infrastructure. In contrast, the cities of Bundaberg and Rockhampton offer a wide range of commercial, health and social services. The capacity to benefit all three areas through the provision of a Fast Rail Commuter Service is evident. A pre-feasibility study for a Fast Rail Commuter Service between Rockhampton, Gladstone and Bundaberg was announced by Capricorn Enterprise on 21 February 2012. The study has been conducted for the proponents, Capricorn Enterprise and Queensland Rail to assess the value of implementing a Fast Rail Commuter Service. Uniquely, the below rail infrastructure for a Fast Rail Commuter Service is already in place across the study region, and therefore this major capital cost is not required. Primarily, the focus of the study is on demand and scheduling to indicate viability. The findings are presented within the context of the five key areas outlined in the ToR. Viability based on demand is complex to quantify as only inferential data is available on the number of commuters currently travelling between the study regions. The literature, statistical data and key stakeholder consultation undertaken in this study evidence a demand based on the known population growth in the Gladstone region. There is demand based on population growth in the short term. In the scope of this study it is not possible to ascertain the adoption rate of commuters. Based on economic modelling utilised in this study, the cost benefit analysis indicated viability in the short term. Literature and case studies reviewed supported the need for a long term view to be taken on rail transit services as this results in increased accessibility and community living. As a result of the population growth opportunities and sectors that may benefit from the service will be widespread. Stakeholders indicated opportunities in tourism, schools, health and local transport. In particular, the tourism sector has identified the benefits of linking the three regions. A Fast Rail Commuter Service provides an opportunity for regional business to expand into new markets. The literature evidences urban renewal and revitalisation often occurs as a result of transit projects. Proposed scheduling to meet demand is possible. A concept schedule based on scenario modelling indicates that a Fast Rail Commuter Service can operate to provide multiple commuter options. No information has been provided that indicate technical impediments exist on the availability of paths or trains that could potentially be used for this service. iv The cost benefit analysis indicated the Fast Rail Commuter Service is a viable proposition. Using a reasonable estimate of a commercial fare, if a subsidy equal to below rail costs and return on investment in rolling stock (new train) is used then an averaged of 67 passengers per trip are required for the Rockhampton to Gladstone route and 59 passengers per trip are required for the Bundaberg to Gladstone route. The number of required passengers reduces if current tilt-train fares are applied. Conversely, the number of passengers required would increase if fares equivalent to metropolitan pricing structure is applied. Potential for private sector support for the service is significant. A private sector investor has confirmed an interest in contributing to a Fast Rail Commuter Service. However, a full business case would need to be presented before any formal commitment can be considered by the private sector. v RECOMMENDATIONS AND FURTHER RESEARCH • Explore alteration to the current tilt path • Consider a shift in the current schedule of the weekday southbound electric tilt to earlier and the weekday northbound tilt to later • Investigate what existing rollingstock could be used for the service • Investigate possibility of “pilot” service using existing rollingstock • Further detailed and comprehensive demand data gathered and analysed to inform modelling for best fit scheduling • Review and negotiate suitable regular path access based on chosen concept • Undertake a feasibility study, if warranted, a business case and policy development • Develop intra-regional passenger rail plan • Undertake community analyses to understand consumers and the drivers for commuting • Prepare a behaviour change plan and introduce a marketing incentive scheme to promote Fast Rail Commuter Service, targeting consumer market • Investigation additional economic benefits and markets arising as a flow on effect of the introduction of the Fast Rail Commuter Service While each of the three locations already have designated transit facilities for passengers who are alighting and disembarking, increased use of these facilities will require an urban planning review at each of the transit sites to inform potential for Master Planning the Development of the Transit areas. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary iv Recommendations and further research vi List of Tables x List of Figures xii Acronyms and Abbreviations xiii Background 1 Project Scope and Approach 1 Project Scope 1 Definition 2 Study Approach 2 Study Region 3 SECTION 1 – SOCIAL IMPACT 6 INTRODUCTION 6 LITERATURE REVIEW 6 STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS 10 Viability of the project across the study region 11 Projected long term and short term viability of the project 12 Other opportunities and sections that may benefit 12 Proposed Scheduling to meet demands 12 Cost benefit analysis and the potential for private sector support 13 SUMMARY 14 CATCHMENT PROFILES 15 INFRASTRUCTURE 15 Roads 15 Air 15 Rail 15 Transport 15 Economic Development Gladstone Region 16 Developments in Gladstone Underway or Proposed 16 Implications of Economic Development in Gladstone Region 19 Alternative sources of supply 21 Growth and supply factors 22 Gladstone LGA 22 Labour force and employment statistics 22 Economic Capacity 23 Social Infrastructure 24 vii Property Market 25 RocKhampton LGA 28 Labour force and employment statistics 28 Economic capacity 29 Social Infrastructure 29 Property Market 30 Bundaberg LGA 31 Labour force and employment statistics 31 Social Infrastructure 32 Property Market 32 Summary of catchment profile 34 Income levels 34 Housing Prices 35 Rentals 36 SECTION TWO - SCHEDULING 40 Current Rail Infrastructure 40 Electrification 40 Duplication 40 Passenger stations 41 Different speed restrictions for tilt/non-tilting 41 Current Passenger Rail Schedule 42 Current regional rail services 42 Train Graph – Current services 44 Concept Schedules 45 What is a concept schedule? 45 Concept Schedule Assumptions 46 Single trip – Rockhampton to Gladstone 47 Single trip – Gladstone to Bundaberg 48 Multiple trip – Rockhampton to Gladstone 49 Scheduling Summary 50 SECTION THREE - ECONOMIC COST ANALYSIS 52 Economic Background 52 Cost analysis 54 Availability of train paths 54 Above rail costs 56 Below rail costs 61 Total costs 64 Demand 65 Pricing 65 Substitute goods and services 65 viii Comparable fare analysis 67 Break-even passengers 70 Value of life 72 Traffic movements 74 Road cost recovery 77 Summary of cost benefit analysis 77 LIMITATIONS OF THIS REPORT