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How Chemical Engineering Will Drive the 21St Century?

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How Chemical Engineering Will Drive the 21St Century? HowHow ChemicalChemical EngineeringEngineering willwill DriveDrive thethe 21st21st Century?Century? TheThe MegaMega PossibilitiesPossibilities AheadAhead Partha@ParthaGhosh Partha S Ghosh How do you sense the “State of Health” of our Planet? What is the Global GDP? What percentage of Global GDP is Process Industry? Partha S Ghosh Global Population 650 Years = US today: 300M Note : Each dot represents 1 million people Boston Analytics Research 1. “Energy Consumption and Sources of Renewable Energy”, Amitabh Lath, (www.physics.rutgers.edu/~lath/Piscataway_2003.ppt) Partha S Ghosh Population 300 Years ago: 600M Pre-industrial revolution Note : Each dot represents 1 million people Boston Analytics Research 1. “Energy Consumption and Sources of Renewable Energy”, Amitabh Lath, (www.physics.rutgers.edu/~lath/Piscataway_2003.ppt) Partha S Ghosh Population Hundred Years ago : 1,600 Million Note : Each dot represents 1 million people Boston Analytics Research 1. “Energy Consumption and Sources of Renewable Energy”, Amitabh Lath, (www.physics.rutgers.edu/~lath/Piscataway_2003.ppt) Partha S Ghosh Post World War II, 50 years later 2,400 Million Note : Each dot represents 1 million people Boston Analytics Research 1. “Energy Consumption and Sources of Renewable Energy”, Amitabh Lath, (www.physics.rutgers.edu/~lath/Piscataway_2003.ppt) Partha S Ghosh The Recent Past, 20 Years back 5,000 Million Note : Each dot represents 1 million people Boston Analytics Research 1. “Energy Consumption and Sources of Renewable Energy”, Amitabh Lath, (www.physics.rutgers.edu/~lath/Piscataway_2003.ppt) Partha S Ghosh And Near Future 2020: 8000 Million Note : Each dot represents 1 million people Boston Analytics Research 1. “Energy Consumption and Sources of Renewable Energy”, Amitabh Lath, (www.physics.rutgers.edu/~lath/Piscataway_2003.ppt) Partha S Ghosh Slow Pace of Dangerous Change : CO2 emission World Carbon Dioxide Emission in Million Metric Tons (1980 to 2050*)1 70,000 60,000 65 Billion 50,000 Tons by 2050 40,000 30,000 20,000 Million Metric Tons 10,000 0 1980 1990 2003 2010 2020 2025 2050 Boston Analytics Research 1. Energy Information Administration (http://www.eia.doe.gov) Year Partha S Ghosh How Hot will Boston be? Number of Hot Days in Boston (1961 to 2099)1 70 64.1 F o 60 50 39.3 40 31.5 30 25.5 17.7 20 15.7 9.5 10 Days per Year over 90 0 1961 to 1990 2010 to 2039 2040 to 2069 2070 to 2099 Projections Lower emissions Higher emissions Boston Analytics Research 1. “Union of Concerned Scientists”, Joan Mclaughin/Globe Staff Partha S Ghosh Global Warming is Lethal? Causes and Effects of Global Warming1 Cause Global Warming Effect Other industrial activities, Changes in • Rise in Sea level 3% land use, 9% • Reductions in the ozone Agricultural layer practices, 14% • Increased intensity and frequency of extreme Energy use and weather events Chlorofluor production, ocarbons, 57% • Impacts on agriculture 17% • Spread of disease Greenhouse Gases (GHG e.g. CO2) Boston Analytics Research 1. “Causes of Global Warming” (http://library.thinkquest.org/26026/Statistics/causes_of_global_warming.html) Partha S Ghosh Sea level is expected to Rise: How much? Estimated Sea Level Rise in cm (2000 to 2100)1 350.0 345.0 300.0 250.0 212.7 200.0 150.0 116.7 100.0 54.9 56.2 38.0 50.0 17.1 23.8 4.8 13.0 Estimated Sea Level Rise (cm) 0.0 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 Conservative Scenario High Scenario Boston Analytics Research 1. “Estimates of Future Sea Level Rise”, John S. Hoffman` Partha S Ghosh Annual loss of Forest land 16.2 Mn Hectares Annual Change in Forest Area (000 ha per year) 1990 to 2005)1 Europe 1,538 Asia 211 -661 Oceania & Australia -804 North & Central America -8,053 South America -8,415 Africa -16,184 World -20000 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 Boston Analytics Research 1. “Extent of forest resources”, (http://www.mongabay.com/deforestation.htm) Partha S Ghosh In fact the US has lost considerable forest area Change in Forest Area in the US (1620 to 1920)1 1620 1920 Partha S Ghosh Dynamics of Deforestation and Ecology: Require Repurposing our Chemical Engineering Knowledge • Less CO2 taken in • Burning Trees adds even more CO2 HYDROSPHERE • Less photosynthesis takes place ATMOSPHERE • Increased risk of fire • Increase in Flash Floods • Loss of vegetation • Aquatic Habitat Degraded • Decrease in no. of species • Leads to increasing infestation • Flow of Water Changes DEFORESTATION1 • Less Oxygen in the • Decrease of pollinators & seed waterways dispersers • Loss of human diversity GEOSPHERE BIOSPHERE • Soil Erosion Boston Analytics Research 1. “The Choice: Doomsday or Arbor Day”, (http://www.umich.edu/~gs265/society/deforestation.htm) Partha S Ghosh The Essential Points: 1.Indeed Challenging & Interesting times ahead Partha S Ghosh Powerful Forces at Work? Changing Ecology 65 Billion Increasing Tons of CO2 Population Rising Temperature Equity Increasing Sea Level Deforestation Finite Resources Partha S Ghosh Powerful Forces at Work: Clash of Perspectives? Changing Ecology Digitization Wall Street requirements Expectations 65 Billion Tons of CO2 Increasing Population Rising CO2 Equity Temperature Deforestation Increasing Sea Level Finite Resources Partha S Ghosh Most of the world is still in the early stage of Economic development Energy Consumption per Capita vs. GDP per Capita (2004)1 140 120 Canada 100 US 80% of Global 80 Population 60 Russia France Japan Kazakhstan Czech Germany UK 40 Ukraine Republic Italy Malaysia Thailand (‘000 KWHr / Capita) Romania Energy Consumption 20 Brazil China Turkey Indonesia Egypt Philippines India 0 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 GDP / Capita (US$) Boston Analytics Research 1. Energy Information Administration - EIA (http://www.eia.doe.gov/) Partha S Ghosh Future Natural Gas requirement of Asia Overview of Energy Scenario (In BCM) Country 2001 2010 2015 2020 2025 India 22 65 90 114 143 China 28 54 74 102 142 Japan 79 91 99 108 119 South Korea 20 28 37 43 51 Other Asia 139 153 173 198 230 Total 288 391 473 565 685 Partha S Ghosh If China & India consumes energy @ 25% of US/capita total energy consumption will increase by 41.6 T KwHr Actual vs Estimated* (2004)1 200 172.4 150 41.6 130.8 100 (Trillion KWHr) Energy Consumption 50 0 Actual Estimated* * Per capita energy consumption of the selected countries is 25% of US per capita energy consumption Partha S Ghosh Old Path or New Path: Time to Choose? Plastic Consumption per capita in Selected Countries vs. GDP per capita (2003)1,2,3 140 2 Developing and R = 0.8631 120 Moderately Developed Germany US Countries Singapore 100 Japan per capita (in kg) 80 Canada 60 Malaysia 40 Hungary Highly 20 Thailand Developed China Poland Countries Indonesia Plastic Consumption 0 India 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 GDP per capita (in US$) Boston Analytics Research 1. http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_11-9-2003_pg5_12 2. Poland and its investment opportunity – BCG Report 3. http://www.eia.doe.gov/ Partha S Ghosh On the other hand Oil Production Capita has been declining at a rate of 1.2% annually – Iranian Revolution * 1973 – Yom Kipper War 1946 to 1980 – The growth in world wide wealth *Measured in barrels of oil per person per year (b/c/year) Boston Analytics Research 1. “Peak Oil – The Beginning of an End”, (http://earthtrends.wri.org/pdf_library/data_tables/ene4_2005.pdf) 2. “BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2006”, BP Plc (http://www.bp.com/statisticalreview) Partha S Ghosh Cleary we are at the End of a Long Era? Economic Development Curves High Information Revolution Industrial Revolution 2 (Internal Combustion Engine) Productivity of Society Industrial Revolution 1 (Steam Engine) 2005 ~2010 Low Time Partha S Ghosh The Essential Points: 1. Indeed Challenging & Interesting times ahead 2.The Process Industry will become more dominant & will be the driver Partha S Ghosh Mega Challenge = Managing a Mega Transition to avoid Mega disruption 13501900 2005 ~2010 2050 Era of Extraction & Mono dimensional Value Creation • “Unconstrained” Processing of Earth’s resources • New Relationship of Space & Time • Supply to Fuel Unidirectional Demand 1. Concentrated Next Era Paradigm? Economic Growth 2. Ecological disequilibrium Role of Chemical Engineers ? 3. Complex Politics of Supply Chain Holistic Approach? PROBLEMS ≈ OPPORTUNITIES Holistic Approach Renewable and Energy Clean Energy Source Ecology Equity Energy ,Food and Health for All Sustainable Economic Developed Partha S Ghosh Scope of the Field? Chemical Industry’s Future (?): Two Strategic Vectors Balance? Conservation driven Future Chemical Engineer Balance of Ecology Consumption driven Perspective? Point Balance of Economic Holistic/Integrative Solution Advance Solution Partha S Ghosh Expanded Field? Chemical Industry’s Future (?): Two Strategic Vectors Balance? Conservation Carbon Free Systems Approach to Energy Energy & System Transportation Management Future Chemical New Engineer Chemistry Recycling of Waste for the Car Agro based Recycling Chemical Lighter Balance of Ecology Products Industry Today Improved Consumption functionalities Process Intensification Perspective? Point Balance of Economic Advance Holistic Solution Solution Partha S Ghosh Strategic Direction of Chemical Industry Positive Create New Investment in Next Game generation Knowledge Intensive Energy/Materials Solutions: “Small is beautiful” Ecology Balance of Balance Energy Efficient consumption Negative Negative Positive Balance of Economic Progress Partha S Ghosh Mega Challenge = Managing a Mega Transition to
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