Number 9, June 2006 New Solutions Community, a solution for saving the environment and conserving resources with equity for all. Salting the Earth The Bible tells stories of “salting the earth,” a tactic used by people who hated their enemies so much that they destroyed the enemy’s future by cutting down food-bearing trees and sowing salt onto farm fields so crops could no longer grow. It was an early version of genocide. Today we have such greed that we are similarly destroying our own children’s future, not that of an enemy, by our massive use of limited fossil fuel resources. Our scientists and engineers, who have brought us to this point with the best of intentions, don’t propose cutting back our use but rather spur us on to find new ways to consume more. The Monstrous Dilemma could over-use potentially renewable We find ourselves in a desperate situa- resources like fisheries and forests and tion succinctly described by Professor Ian groundwater. And we could disrupt the Lowe:1 “Parents in today’s western societies global climate. are cheating their children by funding their “In the social dimension we could own lifestyles from the future,” says Ian widen inequality between rich and poor, Lowe, emeritus professor and formerly ensuring that the future is less socially head of the School of Science at ’s stable. And we could replace traditional Griffith University and president of the spirituality by promoting materialism. Australian Conservation Foundation. “A visitor from another galaxy would The depletion of our petroleum supplies, In a powerful presentation to an see these strategies as deliberate, would see that we were intelligent and would assume primarily for use of our private cars, will lead international audience at the Global Mind, that for some reason we wanted to destroy to fundamental changes in our society. Global Soul, Global Action conference at Tamkang University in Taiwan, Professor life on Earth.” Lowe emphasized that the future is not Professor Lowe notes that there have The Private Car only ever been three models of change somewhere we are going, but something There are many aspects to modern life and over time in a species population. These we are creating. “There are many possible its commitment to consumption but are: (1) increase population over time futures. We should be trying to establish undoubtedly one of the most destructive until it naturally comes into balance and a future that can be sustained, even if not aspects is the private automobile. Yet remains in balance; (2) increase popula- for the four to five million years that the the automobile is touted as one of the tion and exceed the sustainable level, earth is expected to last. Not doing that is most attractive benefits of modern life. collapse, increase again, etc., or (3) grossly selling short our children by funding our It is often said the car industry “keeps exceed the resources and collapse. He lists lifestyles from the future.” our economy going.” Charles E. Wilson some of the problems with population Professor Lowe then describes how one (while president of General Motors) made expansion and then discusses oil: might go about destroying a planet, by the famous and much quoted statement “Our most crucial resource is petro- destroying its future. “What’s good for the country is good for leum. Production will decline, price will “How could we do it? We could start General Motors, and vice versa.” increase, we will have to make fundamen- with exponential population growth. The car is more than a mode of trans- tally different decisions about personal Then we could increase the rate of portation – it defines our infrastructure, consumption per person. We could base transport and the provision of food, which our homes and our communities. The our economy on consumption, stimulat- are currently predicated on the presump- car’s definition of our physical communi- ing consumption that is not necessary. In tion of cheap transport.” ties has destroyed our social communities. fact, we could stimulate consumption by Professor Lowe then gives his estimate The car supposedly represents freedom appealing to the seven deadly sins. of peak oil production as 2009 and his and independence. But this freedom is “Then we could deplete significant estimate of peak natural gas production mostly a freedom from responsibility to mineral resources, starting with oil. We as 2040. other people. The private car may be the PAGE  : NEW SOLUTIONS JUNE 2006, NUMBER 9 greatest alienation device between humans that has ever existed. Figure 1: U.S. Energy Use by Transportation Mode, 2002 There are many who have pointed this out, but James Kunstler stands forth as one of the primary spokespersons. His 1994 book The Geography of Nowhere succinctly describes the results of a 100-year “love affair” with the automobile. Love affairs, exciting though they may be, tend to destroy fidelity and the fidelity and integ- rity of our communities is almost gone. The private automobile has led to this painful situation. In 1970 the U.S. made a fundamental choice – to ignore peak oil. It was in that year that geologist King Hubbert’s thesis was confirmed by the peaking of U.S. oil production. World oil discovery had already peaked in 1965 so the government and oil industry had been forewarned. But no policies were changed, and since 1970 If we seriously want to cut our consumption of fossil fuels, car and light truck use is the place country after country has reached its peak to start. of oil production. Though we may learn that world conventional oil peaked in late Simply put, we are in a situation where we beliefs about energy. The main false belief 2005, as suggested by Ken Deffeyes, we have used up our oil to drive cars so now is that of perpetual unlimited energy. Like are getting no more constructive reaction we need the oil of other peoples in other Jefferson, we are not being deliberately evil than occurred in 1970. Fantasy projects lands. And we will take it if we have to. but can’t envision an alternative way. like the hydrogen car will continue to Americans are willing to attack and kill In the past we had religious and scien- obscure and distract our attention so as other peoples to maintain their motoring tific theories to justify the exploitation of to avoid taking real action. This 35-year lifestyle. The private car has cost us our African-Americans. Today we have theo- delay will cost us dearly. communities. Now it is taking our souls. ries to justify our current consumptive and ...we have used up our oil to drive cars destructive way of living. One such theory is the doctrine of substitution in neoclas- so now we need the oil of other peoples Ignorance and Evil sical economics. According to this theory, in other lands. In western Christianity, evil comes from some force (an actual or mythical devil) the “market” will find a substitute for oil. It only needs rising prices to signal the Americans are often quoted as say- outside of us. In some eastern religions, market to invent a new technology. We are ing that they would die before letting evil is viewed as the result of ignorance. now jeopardizing the future of the human someone take away their car. There is There are many examples of this from his- race by the rationalization of an unproven no external threat to do that from some tory, slavery for example. Many otherwise economic theory with a questionable individual or agency, but it allows us to good people were unable to perceive the foundation and no basis in reality. Such avoid responsibility by creating an enemy evil of slavery because they were addicted is ignorance. who wants to take something away from to the luxuries that the practice afforded us. The truth of the matter is not that them. Thomas Jefferson, one of the Americans will die but that other people founders of our country, knew slavery was The Ignorance of Hydrogen are dying for Americans’ refusal to even wrong but was unable to free his slaves In 1970 the idea of the Hydrogen consider reducing car usage. – this otherwise intelligent man could not Economy was born. This was a theory that Americans would rather destroy the conceive of an alternate way of living. In a hydrogen could take the place of fossil environment and invade foreign lands similar way we are ignorant about energy fuels, allowing us to continue the growth than share a vehicle. Our government and are living a life as destructive as the economy. It seems appropriate that a is now approving preemptive strikes, one we once lived with institutionalized new idea would be proposed in the same including nuclear ones, against those who racism. And, in a similar way, people year that Hubbert’s theory was verified. 2 might threaten the American way of life. feel there is evidence to justify their false According to Jeremy Rifkin, the term was NUMBER 9, JUNE 2006 NEW SOLUTIONS : PAGE  first floated by General Motors in 1970. the Manhattan Project, that by the end makers, aiming to produce a prototype car Joseph Romm3 gives credit to Australian of this decade we will have developed the that was three times more fuel-efficient electrochemist John Bockris. Whoever potential to meet our own energy needs than conventional vehicles by 2004. The used the term first, it was in common without depending on any foreign energy Hydrogen Future Act of 1996 specified usage in the 1970s and beginning to be sources.” He proposed ending American funding levels for the hydrogen program addressed in government programs and reliance on foreign oil through a series of and specified the evaluation of integrating research labs. But there has been notably energy programs, among them “hydrogen- fuel cells with photovoltaic systems for little progress made given the enormous fuelled vehicles” that could be developed hydrogen production along with systems amounts of funding in the ensuing 36 “to enable a shift away from oil.” The for hydrogen production from solid fuels years which raises questions about the “takeoff date” for the new technology such as coal via gasification. current hype around this now discredited was to be 1990.5 In 2001 the National Energy Policy concept. In 1976 the Electric and Hybrid directed the Secretary of Energy to A historical perspective of the hydrogen Vehicle Research, Development, and develop next generation technology economy and its history is useful (see Fig- Demonstration Act was enacted with a – including hydrogen. In 2002 the ure 2). The Hydrogen Economy assumes charter to “encourage and support acceler- “Founding Agreement for FreedomCAR a device called the “fuel cell” which was ated research into, and development of and Fuel Partnership Energy Security for invented by William Grove in 1939. electric and hybrid vehicle technologies.” America’s Transportation” was signed. This Hydrogen was discovered in the 16th As a result of this act, the DOE estab- was a partnership between the Depart- century and first made in 1766 by Henry lished the Electric and Hybrid Vehicles ment of Energy and United States Council Cavendish.3 In 1874 Jules Verne wrote a Program. This same act also authorized for Automotive Research, which included book entitled The Mysterious Island and in the already established Hydrogen Program the major U.S. automobile manufactur- 1893 Max Permberon wrote a best seller, to be managed by the National Science ers. Its objective was to advance research The Iron Pirate, both advocating what we Foundation. and development of affordable hydrogen now call the Hydrogen Economy. One In 1987 the Electric and Hybrid fuel cell vehicles and a national hydrogen might even say that the idea is over 200 Vehicles Program was expanded to include infrastructure. The FreedomCAR defined years old! hydrogen fuel cell R&D activities. In five American transportation freedoms: In the 1970s many alternative fuel 1990 the Spark M. Matsunaga Hydrogen 1. Freedom from petroleum dependence. programs were being funded. The Depart- Research, Development and Demonstra- 2. Freedom from pollutant emissions. ment of Energy (DOE) hydrogen pro- tion Act was passed which developed a 3. Freedom to choose the vehicle you gram4 shows the key milestones relating to 5-year management plan for hydrogen want. hydrogen and fuel cell federally-supported R&D, established the Hydrogen Tech- research and development (R&D) over nical Advisory Panel (HTAP) to advise 4. Freedom to drive where you want, the last three decades. In the early 1970s, the Secretary of Energy, and transferred when you want. the Advanced Automotive Propulsion the Hydrogen Program to the DOE. 5. Freedom to obtain fuel affordably and System Program (AAPSP) was established The Energy Policy Act of 1992 directed conveniently. to develop advanced propulsion alterna- the Secretary of Energy to develop and The Energy Policy Act of 2005 directed tives to internal combustion engines and implement a comprehensive program the Secretary of Energy to “conduct a to evaluate the performance of alternative of research and development, as well as research and development program-in vehicle fuels. demonstrations of fuel cells and related consultation with other federal agencies and In 1974 President Richard Nixon systems for transportation applications. the private sector-on technologies related announced Project Independence stating, In 1993, President Clinton launched to the production, purification, distribu- “Let us set as our national goal, in the the $1 billion Partnership for New Gen- tion, storage, and use of hydrogen energy, spirit of Apollo with the determination of eration Vehicles with the Big Three auto- fuel cells, and related infrastructure.”

Figure 2: The Hydrogen Economy Timeline Bush says fuel cell price is Wind power Two fuel cell halved in six generates Nixon Energy cars arrive in years (now just 1830 hydrogen 1965 Program (H2) 1993 California 2005 $1million) Fuel cell 1904 Fuel cell built in 1973 Ballard makes 2002 Aussie MP says 2006 invented Space program first FC bus only enough ($800 M) platinum/pal- ladium for 10 million cars PAGE  : NEW SOLUTIONS JUNE 2006, NUMBER 9

In the president’s State of the Union bomb worked in 1945 – from concept to Disinformation and Hype speech on January 31, 2006 the Advanced implementation in 12 years. The hype and disinformation has not Energy Initiative was re-defined with an The Apollo project was established just come from car companies and the increase of funding to $250 million for by John F. Kennedy in 1961 with an government agencies but also consultants hydrogen fuel cells. objective to go to the moon and back in and energy experts. Consider the follow- So far the results are extremely disap- the decade of the 1960s. The goal was ing comments from Amory Lovins.6 In his 3 pointing. Joseph Romm notes “By 2003, accomplished in 1969. It took 9 years book he refers to commitments made in more than 160 years after the first fuel cell from concept to implementation. 1997 including, “Daimler pledged annual was built, and after spending more than It has been 36 years since the concep- production of 100,000 of such [hydro- $15 billion in public and private spend- tion of the Hydrogen Economy in 1970, gen fuel cell] vehicles by 2005” and he ing, only one fuel cell with significant and it is still nowhere in sight. It is hard notes, “The president of Toyota said he’d commercial sales existed, and purchases of to recall any idea that has had so much beat that goal.” He later tells us the same that product received a government sub- investment for such a long period of time president of Toyota predicted “...hybrid sidy to buy down the cost.” The promise with such poor results. Why do we con- electric cars would capture one-third of of the Hydrogen Economy, with hydrogen tinue this folly? It seems as if every year or the world car market by 2005.” The actual taking the place of fossil fuels, has not two the hydrogen economy must be re- number is 1 percent, far short of the 33 been realized. announced as if it is brand new. People are percent predicted. Further Lovins notes, reinvigorated, forgetting the past dismal “GM promised production ready hybrid ...more than 160 years after the first fuel record. vehicles by 2001 and fuel-cell versions by cell was built, and after spending more The latest example is President Bush 2004.” Lovins at that time was promoting than $15 billion in public and private who said in his State of the Union his Hypercar, more aptly called a “Hype” spending, only one fuel cell with signifi- Address, January 28, 2003, “A simple car, and has been one of the strongest cant commercial sales existed. chemical reaction between hydrogen and advocates of the Hydrogen Economy. A oxygen generates energy, which can be proponent of efficiency, he argues that It is surprising that the myth of hydro- used to power a car producing only water, technology will always solve shortages gen persists in light of such poor results. not exhaust fumes. With a new national problems. But this myth has been vital in keeping commitment, our scientists and engineers people from realizing the true state of will overcome obstacles to taking these affairs; the private car, dependent on cars from laboratory to showroom so cheap fossil fuels, will someday be obso- that the first car driven by a child born lete. This is a shocking, and unacceptable, today could be powered by hydrogen, and concept for Americans. Government and pollution-free. Join me in this important industry will work hard at perpetuating innovation to make our air significantly this myth. The consequences of facing the cleaner, and our country much less depen- truth, that we need to use less fossil fuels dent on foreign sources of energy.” for the long haul, means an end to the These words are similar to those used growth economy and the end of the idea by Richard Nixon in his Project Inde- of private car for every person. pendence speech, by Gerald Ford, by Bill GM’s Evolution, one of the newer in the One reads that there is a need for a Clinton, and by the first president Bush. line of “Hype” cars Manhattan Project or Apollo Project for a We can only wish the current president revolutionary energy source. It is useful to would tell us the truth. Imagine such a Jeremy Rifkin2 is another popular consider the time frame it took to bring possibility. “To the American people: We proponent of the hydrogen economy and these two famous efforts to fruition. The began looking for a new auto engine in the fuel cell. In his book The Hydrogen atomic bomb was conceived as a possibil- 1970. It’s been 36 years now and we are Economy he notes that Daimler would ity by Leo Szilard in 1933. Presumably he still trying. Every single date that was produce 100,000 fuel cell cars by the end patented the device in London but kept it established during this whole period was of the decade (1990s) and that GM would secret so that Germany would not begin not met. We spend $10s of billions. It have fuel cell cars ready by 2010. None of an effort. By 1939 the possibility was clear doesn’t look too good. I no longer know the numbers quoted by Lovins and Rifkin to many physicists. Albert Einstein wrote if we will ever make such an engine work. were made and GM no longer quotes a to Franklin Roosevelt in 1939 pointing We must find ways to use less energy. date. Yet both men continue to advocate out the possibility of such weapons. The There is no quick fix on the technical and lobby for a hydrogen miracle. Manhattan Project began in 1942 and the horizon. Conservation must begin today.” In a recent article 7 on Japanese Infor- NUMBER 9, JUNE 2006 NEW SOLUTIONS : PAGE  mation Network, the following statement After many decades, the average mpg information, both in terms of miles driven is made, “What is putting the brake on in the U.S. is 21 whereas in Europe and before refueling, miles traveled per car and the development of fuel-cell cars, first of Japan it is 42 and 47 respectively. the frequency of repair records. Ballard all, is that the device itself is very costly. It has spent $700 million on its engine 10 has been found out also that the building and efficiency was rejected. Ronald and is doing poorly financially. The car of infrastructures, such as the networks of Reagan was elected and immediately cut companies have moved to the hybrid as filling stations that would provide hydro- the budget for renewable energy. Later the next source of automotive power. And gen needed for the fuel cell, would take he removed the solar panels that Carter American car companies have lost market a long time. It is expected to take at least had installed on the White House. The share to foreign companies building more 20 years before the fuel cell can be widely country continued to ignore the evidence efficient cars. used.” Most articles about fuel cell and of a finite amount of oil in the earth and hydrogen technology use similar language people continued buying ever larger cars The Electric Car Option i.e. “at least 20 years.” One could have also and driving longer distances. After many A key indicator of our culture’s ignorance written this to say “somewhere between decades, the average m.p.g. in the U.S. is is a fixation on “breakthroughs.” It is 20 years and forever.” After 36 years of 21 whereas in Europe and Japan it is 42 irresponsible to advocate such potential effort and the production of only a few 11 and 47 respectively. breakthroughs when one lacks knowledge dozen of these cars one wonders what the This is a prime example of an ignorant of the relevant history. The fuel cell is article means by “...the device itself is very and foolish nation. We can blame various not the only technological product with costly.” According to James Woolsey8 the people but in the final analysis Americans a long dubious history – a history whose price is about $1,000,000 per copy. have elected officials who have given them length and failures are known only to The authors might also have added what they want – more consumption. They a tiny group of people. The electric car some comments about the reliability have also accepted the somewhat trivial or electric vehicle (EV) also called the and longevity of the device. The detailed unproven tenant coming from the domi- battery electric vehicle (BEV) is another performance information on these cars is nant religion of economics – “The market example. The difference between the EV not available to the public. Australian MP will provide.” Yet there is more to this. and the proposed fuel cell vehicles was Andrew McNamara () gave a Energy companies and car companies have that the EV actually worked! Far less talk at which he pointed out there is only not prospered in silence. They cannot argue time and fewer dollars were expended to enough palladium and platinum to build that they merely serve the wishes of the build about 5,000 of these cars in the late 10 million cars.9 There are more than 700 consumer. At each suggestion of change or million cars in the world today. The stock 1990s. Many were recalled and destroyed limitation, lobbyists descend on Washing- by corporate policy, but some remain and of the major Canadian fuel cell manufac- ton and ad budgets are increased. their utility can be measured. turer, Ballard Systems, funded partially To a great extent, the public are pawns The EV has a long history. In the early by over $100-million-dollar investments in the economic growth game being played days of the automobile industry, the EV from Ford and Daimler Chrysler car com- by energy companies, car companies, was sold in about the same numbers as pany has declined from a price of $115 in scientific institutions and government. the internal combustion engine. Thus, 2001 to $6 in 2006, representative of the It is these groups who decide what will 10 like the fuel cell that was invented in the total fortunes of the fuel cell car. be built and when. These organizations, 19th century, the technology is not of a who have spent $100s of millions on fuel breakthrough nature. Who Can We Trust? cell research, will decide when the fuel A temporary resurgence of the EV A wiser people might have begun preparing cell fiasco is over. This is unlikely since a for change in 1956 when King Hubbert’s sudden end of this 36 year propaganda occurred in California in the late 1990s. first paper on finite energy sources was effort might penetrate the fog generated As previously noted, in 1976 the Electric published. It could have triggered some by corporate media. The public might ask and Hybrid Vehicle Research, Develop- research projects. A more mature culture the frightening question “What did they ment, and Demonstration Act was passed might have begun such an effort in 1970, know and when did they know it? Who to encourage and support accelerated when U.S. Peak Oil occurred. Some action benefited by continuing the excessive use research and development of electric could have even been initiated when peak of the precious resource of oil?” vehicles. The major event that led to the world discovery of oil occurred in 1965. To summarize the status as we leave development and deployment of EVs Jimmy Carter’s speech in July 1979 the topic of the hydrogen economy and was the California establishment in 1990 should have galvanized the nation. Possibly the fuel cell we note there are only a few of the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) we can excuse a nine-year delay from the dozen fuel cell cars in the nation. The Mandate which required that by 1998 1970 U.S. Peak to Carter’s 1979 speech. cost of each car is about $1,000,000 each. two percent of vehicles sold in California But Carter’s proposal for conservation There is a strict blackout on performance would have to be zero emission ones. PAGE  : NEW SOLUTIONS JUNE 2006, NUMBER 9

The amount sold was to increase to five state of California and CARB alleging that sold some of the cars to their owners. A percent by 2001 and ten percent by 2003. the newer zero emission vehicle (ZEV) film released in June, 2006 entitled “Who The California governmental body that rules violated a federal law barring states Killed the Electric Car” suggests a plot by prepared and directed this legislation from regulating fuel economy in any way. oil companies, car companies and politi- was the California Air Resources Board They argued that the new rules amounted cians to withhold a promising technology (CARB). Any automobile manufacturer to a regulation of fuel economy since they from the market. There may be elements that sold cars in California was required covered hybrids which burn traditional of truth in this, but the fact remains that to develop and offer such vehicles for sale. fuel. In late 2002, the Bush Administra- batteries limited the range of the cars. The Since California is such a large market, no tion filed anamicus (friend of the court) concept of the Electric Vehicle is decades manufacturer could fail to respond and brief, claiming that the state, by regulating old and the main problem with EVs had several EV models were developed and emissions, was setting a gasoline mileage always been battery weight, time to charge sold by GM, Ford, Toyota and Honda. standard, which was the province of the the battery and distance traveled on a Among them was the General Motors federal government. battery charge. The California program EV1, a two-passenger electric vehicle. As a result of these actions CARB in essence was an attempt to advance bat- About 1,100 were built. 800 of these were dropped the requirement that automakers tery technology but it met with limited leased to consumers during the period produce battery-powered electric cars and success. from 1997 to 2003. The first version used instructed the industry instead to produce But most significant was the unforeseen a lead acid battery that required a 5- to 6- more fuel-cell electric vehicles and hybrid success of the hybrid vehicle. CARB’s hour charge, and which provided a driving vehicles. With agreement that the rules attempt to include hybrids in their pro- range of 55 to 95 miles. A second version would not be changed again, the auto gram gave the car companies a chance to with an improved battery required a 6- to industry dropped its suit in late 2003. sue and overturn the original law. History 8-hour charge, but provided a driving will probably conclude that the hybrid range of 75 to 130 miles. GM invested car was a formidable competitor to the more than $1 billion to develop, design EV and may have had more to do with and build the car. its demise than the machinations of car Another example was the RAV4 EV companies. manufactured by Toyota. Toyota built about 1200 electric vehicles from 1997 The Hybrid Car through 2003, close to the number of Technologies generating interest today are EV1s. Similar volumes were produced by not necessarily revolutionary or break- a Honda and Ford and a few other manu- throughs but continuation of long-term facturers. The production for all compa- R&D investments and research. Toyota nies was in the same time range, roughly The EV1 ended up in scrap piles, recalled and destroyed by the automakers. hybrid advertisements claim that their from 1997 to 2003. Hybrid Synergy Drive was the result of 40 The impetus for this effort was the years of research, marking its beginning in aforementioned 1990 mandate from The intent in California was to reduce the late 1960s. Funding of hybrid research CARB and the effort ended when CARB emissions in heavily populated area such in this country has been on going since canceled the mandate in 2003. CARB’s as the Los Angeles basin. The state was 1973. One of the early hybrid experi- intention had been to encourage auto not interested so much in reducing emis- mental models was completed in 1974 companies to develop new technology sions on a worldwide basis. Thus an elec- by Victor Wouk and Charlie Rosen who rather than simply improving internal tric vehicle, operating on electricity from created a prototype hybrid gas-electric combustion engines. Until its cancellation, a coal fueled power plant located 200 vehicle, using a Buick Skylark body under the regulation deadlines had officially been miles away, may or may not have resulted contract from the Environmental Protec- delayed several times. in total lower emissions on a global basis. tion Agency. Like the electric car, modern In 2001 California granted companies But it did improve local air quality by hybrids are not so much breakthrough credit for low-emission vehicles, rather moving emissions from the local auto- concepts but results of years of good than just zero-emissions vehicles, particu- mobile to a distant power plant. engineering. larly the hybrid cars from Honda (Insight) There was great enthusiasm by the Toyota and Honda decided to pursue and Toyota (Prius). Changing the rules few hundred people who leased the EVs. the hybrid about the same time that the gave the auto industry the opportunity to Many protested strongly when GM took U.S. formed the Partnership for a New challenge the entire regulation. General back the leased cars and scrapped them. Generation of Vehicles in 1993. Also Motors and DaimlerChrysler sued the Toyota began to do the same but later in 1993, the Hybrid Electric Vehicle NUMBER 9, JUNE 2006 NEW SOLUTIONS : PAGE 

The EV program no longer made any ity that replaces the gasoline come mostly sense with the success of the hybrid. from coal, a fuel more polluting than oil, The partnerships between U.S. car is not brought up. companies and the Departments of Energy The disinformation in our culture (DOE) and Transportation (DOT) have begins at the top, with our leaders. One been disastrous. While Toyota and Honda such leader, Senator Joseph Lieberman, focused on the hybrid car, U.S. compa- a Vice Presidential Candidate in 2000 nies, in agreement with the government, and a presidential16 contender in 2004, made fuel cells a priority. The nation lost gave a talk on October 7, 2005 entitled years of opportunities for development of “What We Can and Must do Now to The success of hybrid gas/electric cars like more reasonable improvements. Unfor- Break America’s Dependence on Foreign the Honda Insight strongly contributed to the tunately the hybrid is not the only lost Oil and Bring Down Energy Prices” demise of the electric car initiative. opportunity. Japanese and European man- during a Loewy Lecture at Georgetown ufacturers have made major improvements University. He opened with the comment to the diesel engine as well and almost half Program in the U.S. officially began – a that “Technology is a dominant engine the cars in Europe are now sold with high five-year, cost-shared program. The auto informing our personal lives and driv- gas mileage diesels. manufacturers committed to produce a ing globalization. Any modern study of feasible HEV by 1998 with market-ready foreign affairs and diplomacy must take it vehicles by 2003. Both programs were Changing Horses – From into account.” He went on to lament the partnerships of the DOE (U.S. Depart- Fuel Cell to the Plug-in poor government response to the Katrina ment of Energy) and GM, Ford and Hybrid (PHEV) hurricane and used it as a metaphor for high fuel prices. After discussion of energy DaimlerChrysler. Eventually the goals Americans look for impressive “break- difficulties he made the following startling of both began to merge. As the 2003 throughs” and the fuel cell fit the mold. statement “And then we must remake our deadline approached the program was It was a miracle car that ran somehow ran automobile engines as well. Vehicles that essentially abandoned. The U.S. move to on water and did not pollute. Nor did it get 500 miles per gallon – or that use NO the fuel cell, abandoning the hybrid, left work. Now the country is switching to refined crude oil – are within our grasp. I the hybrid market to Japan. another quick techno fix – the Pluggable know that sounds unbelievable but a little While the U.S. talked about hybrids, Hybrid Electric Vehicle or PHEV. Con- later in this lecture I am going to tell you Japan built them. This may turn out to be gressmen and Congresswomen at a hear- how we can do it.” the seminal event that defines a dismal ing in Washington of the House Energy 12,13 He then discussed details of a bill to future for the U.S. automobile industry. Committee in May 2006 expressed their legislate a certain percentage of cars be Japan’s hybrid concept was first demon- amazement that they had never heard of hybrids or “plug-ins” or alternative fuel strated at the Tokyo Motor Show in the PHEV.14 The chairperson and others vehicles. Included in this section was the October 1995. Earlier in the same year, wished they could buy one today. Present- obligatory statement about hydrogen fuel the development of a hybrid vehicle was ers wore tee shirts with mileage claims on cells, which fortunately was quite brief approved by Toyota corporate officials. them and waved electrical plugs in the air. and subdued. The vehicle would be powered with what President Bush added the concept to his His statements about a new road – was called the “Toyota Hybrid System,” speeches. Senator Clinton at a speech for “a road where the tanks are filled with a system that would combine an internal the national press club said the following more home-grown fuel... and I do mean combustion engine with an electric motor. about the PHEV. “The next step is hybrid grown... not just American corn, but from In December 1995 Toyota announced plug-ins, enabling drivers to use house- American sugar, prairie grass and agricul- that the hybrid vehicle would go on sale in hold electricity to recharge car batteries at Japan in two years’ time and on December night. I saw some of these. They were on tural waste” served as a plug for biofuels. 10, 1997, it did. display on Capitol Hill. You can drive a The senator proposes requiring that filling In 1998, 18,000 Prius were sold in hundred miles or more for every gallon of stations sell ethanol and quoted the great Japan. U.S. sales began in 2000 and fuel you put in the tank.”15 progress of Brazil in the last 35 years in 35,000 Prius were delivered in 2001 and The proponents of the PHEV, similar the area of biofuels. Unfortunately he 2002. By the end of 2003, nearly 160,000 to the advocates of the fuel cell, began states that Brazil burns about 40 percent Prius cars had been produced. Tens of their program by misleading the public. biofuels, more than double the actual 17 thousands of Honda Hybrid Civics and The potential mileage is overstated with number of 18 percent. He did note that Honda Insights were also sold in the same numbers being quoted such as 100, 250 Brazil gets its ethanol from sugar cane period, as well as about 1,200 Toyota EVs. and 500 m.p.g. The fact that the electric- while ours is obtained from corn, making PAGE  : NEW SOLUTIONS JUNE 2006, NUMBER 9

one wonder if the Brazilian experience is As with much of his speech he raves designed to confuse the American people relative to the U.S. This was followed by about existing breakthrough technol- and keep them ignorant as long noting the need for flexible fuel vehicles, ogy including the $30 valve added to as possible. the current marketing gimmick pushed by Of course the PHEVs don’t go far carburetors to allow burning of ethanol. GM to forestall more orders for efficient enough or make economic sense with Japanese cars. As with much of his speech The time to change the existing 210 today’s batteries. In 2003, when CARB he raves about existing breakthrough million cars to ethanol burning was not canceled the EV effort, advocates pointed technology including the $30 valve added mentioned. out the need for battery “breakthroughs” to carburetors to allow burning of ethanol. to validate the EV concept. Advocates The time to change the existing 210 that an EV, like those that General Motors today still point out the need for a break- million cars to ethanol burning was not just finished scrapping only a year or two through in batteries, the same break- mentioned. ago, also got 500 miles to the gallon? Does through which did not occur in the late The Senator returned to the plug-in the current Toyota RAV4 EV get 500 ’90s and early 2000s. Proponents say that hybrids, which he noted are “just now miles per gallon? If Toyota advertised that, lithium ion batteries are “just around the on the threshold of commercialization.” would it be true? Since electric vehicles corner.” Congress members are advocating Eight or so such custom cars do exist, far run on electricity which is made from coal for more research dollars to “jumpstart” less than the 200 or so fuel cell cars that how do they get any m.p.g.? This is just the PHEV. (Jumpstart is a favorite word are still decades away from even potential a bit of puffery that upon examination of our leaders.) commercialization. He then notes that looks quite fraudulent. The Senator does As we become fixated with yet another plug-in hybrids would use no gas for small not point out that most of our electricity technological breakthrough, the Japanese trips and he repeats, “Experts tell me it comes from burning fossil fuels. manufacturers will continue their careful could effectively get the 500 miles per We investigated some of the ways the incremental improvements without the gallon on longer trips.” PHEV proponents calculate mileage. need for miracle technologies. Our own Senator Lieberman addresses fuel There are three steps. First find the lowest car manufacturers are teetering on the costs by noting that off-peak electricity cost coal burning plant and use it to calcu- brink of bankruptcy as they focus on will be the equivalent of 50 cent a gallon late the basic electricity cost. Then select building large SUVs while gasoline prices of fuel. Fortunately he reminds people the lowest price for electricity during the continue to rise. They are unable to pre- that electricity comes from “coal, natural day. Assume that all battery charging is pare for a rapidly approaching time when gas, nuclear, solar, wind or other sources done at the lowest rate during the day. m.p.g. matters above all else, and will try – sources that we have in abundance here Don’t add sales tax or tax to maintain the one more desperate attempt to hoodwink at home – and a little – very little – would roads or anything else that is included as the American public for a few more years. come from oil.” Continuing with the a legitimate cost for cars in the price of a One can only dream of a quick demise, PHEV he says, “These vehicles could be gallon of gasoline. Next assume that the the purchase of GM and Ford for pennies in your garage within a couple of years.” existing power network is sufficient – that on the dollar by Toyota and Honda, and Even the fuel cell advocates have been charging 200 million cars daily will not a quick overhaul of plants to produce the more circumspect. require burning more fossil fuels. Then average 42-47 m.p.g. cars common in Thus we are back at the question of divide that into the price of a gallon of gas Europe and the Far East. asking “Who can we trust?” Senators and multiply that times the average mile- probably cannot honestly say, “I don’t age of cars in the country. This somehow know what to do.” Maybe disinformation leads to numbers like 500 m.p.g. Electric Engines vs. is part of the job. But this is what has led Senator Lieberman is not the only Gasoline Engines us to the present situation. If our govern- national leader use this exaggerated It is not easy to sort through the confu- ment leaders have misled us over fuel cells, number to achieve an objective. Ex-CIA sion. Is 500 m.p.g. really possible? A batteries, and Weapons of Mass Destruc- director James Woolsey, a proponent of review of the options is certainly required tion in foreign countries, how can we trust the PHEV, also quotes the number of 500 before one can hold an opinion. To test them when they propose the next futur- m.p.g.18 And the Apollo Alliance makes these claims it is necessary to understand istic solution? Could it possibly be that the same 500 m.p.g. claim.19 Like WMD something about electric cars, gasoline they want Americans to keep driving large in Iraq, or nuclear fission or fuel cell folly, cars and the second law of thermodynam- inefficient cars? we are not given the whole the truth as if ics which essentially says that to convert The Senator claims that these cars get that is unimportant. The objective is to one form of energy to another requires 500 miles to the gallon. This number get R&D dollars for one’s favorite project a great deal of energy. This is true for arises because the car is running on elec- or gain publicity by a naïve press by offer- converting the chemical energy in gasoline tricity most of the time. Does this mean ing “breakthrough” solutions. All this is NUMBER 9, JUNE 2006 NEW SOLUTIONS : PAGE  to the kinetic energy of movement or to converting the chemical energy of coal and natural gas (as well as oil) to the energy of electricity. Wikipedia.org is useful in defining some values to make an analysis.20 The Wikipedia entry for Battery_electric_ vehicle notes that battery vehicles typically consume 0.3 to 0.5 kilowatt hours (kWh) per mile. The same entry notes that the U.S. fleet average of 23 m.p.g. of gasoline cars is equivalent to 1.46 kWh per mile and a 70 m.p.g. Honda Insight (stick shift and no air conditioning) gets 0.48 kWh per mile. Wikipedia notes that there are 33.6 kWh per gallon of gasoline. This is calculated by dividing the 115,400 Btus in a gallon of gasoline by the constant 3,412 which is the Btus per kilowatt hour (kWh). The Energy Information Agency (EIA)21 says that a gallon of gasoline contains 125,000 Btu, close to the 115,400 of Toyota’s all electric RAV4 EV supposedly got 84 mpg. But if you take into account the fuel Wikipedia, and verifies that a kWh of spent to create the electicity it runs on, the efficiency is reduced to 28 mpg, just 4 mpg more electricity is equivalent to 3,412 Btu. than the hybrid gas/electric RAV4. Comparisons are made more difficult because in the U.S. electric car distance within the range of .3 and .5 kWh/mile of the energy is dissipated in heat in the values are listed as energy used per mile stated by Wikipedia. How can we compare conversion, so that only 1/3 of the original while in the case of gasoline mileage, the the RAV4 electric vehicle to the RAV4 energy is available to convert to electricity values are in miles per energy used. To gasoline car? We must convert the .4 kWh to drive the car. The energy loss occurs at make them equivalent, it is necessary to to miles per gallon. The same process the site of the power generating plant. convert miles per gallon to gallons per of inverting the number is used. The A similar pattern occurs with a gaso- mile. To change the value of the U.S. car calculation is 1/(.4 kWh per mile) times line car. It takes roughly 10 percent of fleet (average of 23 m.p.g.) from miles per gallon one calculates the reciprocal (1/23) 33.6 (the number of kWh per gallon of the equivalent energy in a barrel of oil to getting .0435 gallons per mile. Multiply gasoline) which gives a mileage equivalent refine the oil into gasoline. The refining this by the constants of 33.6 kWh per of 84 miles per gallon. The combined city process is not the same as using a genera- gallon results in the 1.46 kWh per mile and highway mileage of a conventional tor at a power plant to convert fossil fuel g.23 quoted in Wikipedia. This is useful in RAV4 is 24 m.p. It seems that there is energy into electricity. Rather the refining verifying the analysis. Similarly the Honda a greater than three to one advantage for process involves heating the oil, which Insight at 70 m.p.g. gets .0143 gallons/ the Toyota EV version over the gasoline does take energy, the approximately 10 mile. Multiplying this by 33.6 gives .48 version. percent noted above. kWh per mile as given by Wikipedia, a This suggests that all cars should be But when gasoline is burned in the car second data point for verifying the calcula- converted to batteries as quickly as pos- engine, a similar process occurs to that tions. (Note: these and other calcula- sible. Unfortunately, this is not the case. which took place at the central power tions are theoretical ones for comparative Recall that electricity is made mostly plant. There is a state change. In this purposes and do not necessarily represent from fossil fuels. In the U.S. 50 percent case the gasoline is converted into kinetic actual mileage numbers. However, they of electricity comes from coal and about energy (energy of movement) rather than are within an accepted range) 20 percent from natural gas. The fossil electrical energy. Most of the original Next we review a real life case. In the fuels are burned at a central power plant energy in the gasoline is converted into late 1990s, Toyota made an electric car where the fossil fuel energy is converted heat, just as most of the energy burned at (EV) called the RAV4 EV, which was a into electrical energy. The second law of the power plant (typically from coal) is battery-only version of the RAV4. The thermodynamics states that changing state converted into heat. The efficiency of the RAV4 EV mileage is .4 kWh per mile,22 like this requires energy. On average, 2/3 car engine is in the range of 25 percent. PAGE 10 : NEW SOLUTIONS JUNE 2006, NUMBER 9

Thus about 75 percent of the energy is lost in heat. Figure 3: All Fossil Fuel Reserves When comparing the RAV4 EV all electric car and the RAV4 gasoline car, it is necessary to take this into account. The RAV4 EV mileage of 84 equivalent m.p.g. is measuring the energy without account- ing for the fuel converted into heat and dissipated into the air at the power plant. To make it equivalent to the gasoline car, the 84 m.p.g. number must be reduced by 2/3, the energy cost of converting fuel to electricity. This gives a m.p.g. of 28, much closer to the 24 m.p.g. of the gasoline ver- sion of the RAV4. Whether it be coal or natural gas creating electricity in a power plant or gasoline creating movement in Coal is the most plentiful fossil fuel remaining, with a huge proportion in the U.S. a car, most of the energy is converted to heat. electrical generation in the future. Wind coal as a source of electricity for battery There are secondary considerations to and solar will contribute a small amount vehicles in the process we described earlier. be evaluated which are beyond the scope and this is discussed later. Coal can either be a source of synthetic of this paper. They include the energy To understand the implications of the gasoline for the current internal combus- cost of refining the gasoline as well as the electric car, we must understand coal. tion engine or a source of electricity for energy cost to transport it. A key consid- Surprisingly, to understand the future of battery vehicles. This is why so called eration that is not analyzed is the trans- the gasoline car we must also understand “clean” coal is being touted as the “fuel mission energy cost of the electricity. The coal. There are two proposed options of the future.” We will explain how coal average electricity transmission distance is to replace oil for automobile fuel. One becomes clean later. 224 miles and the average cost to transmit is to convert natural gas to liquids or to the electricity is 5-10 percent of the origi- convert coal to liquids. Since natural gas Pound per Pound nal energy content. This brief summary is has already peaked in the U.S., it is likely Coal is sold by the pound or ton, oil is to show the reader how energy values can that the choice will be coal to liquids. This sold by the gallon or barrel and natural gas be misstated and misleading. process was used extensively by Germany is sold by the cubic foot. These different in WWII and is done in a few places in measures make it difficult to compare the Comparing Fuels the world today, such as South Africa. fuels. Each different fuel provides different The future fuel for the U.S. will likely be The technology is well proven. Unfor- amounts of energy and each generates a coal. Coal is the principle fuel for electric- tunately the energy to produce the coal different volume of pollutions. To clearly ity generation and will be the main source generates CO2 which is added to the CO2 understand this, it is useful to make the of energy for an electric car. Coal gener- from burning the synthetic fuel in the car values constant. Most scientists would use ates 50 percent of our electricity and is engine. The second option is to use the weight as a common measure and we fol- expected to grow to 57 percent by 2030.24 low that tradition. Natural gas is the second major fuel used The EIA21 shows the Btus in a pound for electricity, about 20 percent, but of coal (10,000), a gallon of gasoline unfortunately it will be the next fossil fuel (125,000), and a cubic foot of natural gas after oil to peak. It’s also very valuable for (1021). To determine equivalency, we other products like fertilizers. The result need to convert gallons of gasoline and will be a decline in the use of natural gas cubic feet of natural gas to pounds. The for generating electricity along with oil. weight of a gallon of gasoline is 6.2 pounds.25 This will increase the percent of electric- Dividing the 125,000 Btus in a gallon of ity generated from coal. Coal’s role will gasoline by 6.2 gives 20,161 Btu/pound. be dominant because new hydroelectric The corresponding value for natural gas is sites are no longer available and nuclear 25,000 Btu/pound.26 Thus a pound of coal, plants are dependent on shrinking sources Coal is being improbably positioned as a gasoline, and natural gas contain 10,000, of uranium. Thus coal will dominate the so-called “clean” fuel. 20,000 and 25,000 Btus respectively. NUMBER 9, JUNE 2006 NEW SOLUTIONS : PAGE 11

Coal, oil and natural gas generate energy implications. And it is clear that legislature mandated EV development and different levels of pollution as well as dif- powering a car with fossil fuels or power- warned against the same approach. He ferent amounts of energy. The following ing it with electricity from fossil fuels is noted that Honda strongly supports the table shows the pounds of air pollutants no major breakthrough and in terms of research program outlined in the House produced per billion Btus of energy:27 pollution it may be a step backwards, as it discussion draft of the Plug-In Hybrid switches the driving fuel from oil to coal, Electric Vehicle Act of 200629 but cautions Table 1: Quantifying Pollutants which is more polluting. against going into full production. He An energy discussion is unfortunately pointed out that battery technology has Pollutant Natural Gas Oil Coal never just about the energy options but not advanced to the point that success is Carbon Dioxide 117,000 164,000 208,000 about the way they are communicated. assured.30 Nitrogen Oxides 924 484 57 There is always a tendency to “spin” or But Dr. Frank claims that the tech- Sulfur Dioxide .6 1,122 2,591 “sell” ideas to get funding and orders. nology is ready for mass production. Particulates 7 84 2,744 The PHEV is no exception. One of the (The Plug-In bill funding proposal is for These numbers are given in pounds per strongest PHEV advocates is Professor $250,000,000 per year). billion Btu. Converted to pounds (using the Andrew Frank, Director of Hybrid Vehicle This bill will join the long list of previ- values of 10,000, 20,000 and 25,000 Btus Research, at the University of California- ous bills with similar levels of funding that defined earlier) gives the following results: Davis, who is often called the guru of the have been applied to automobiles. The 28 Measures Natural Gas Oil Coal PHEV. In his online article “Plug-In results will likely be similar. In all such Btu/lb 25,000 20,000 10,000 Hybrids: The New Focus for the Future cases, the technologies have been sold as of Transportation,” March 3, 2006, he modern miracles. In the mean time, auto- CO2/lb 2.9 3.3 2.1 claims that a Plug-In Hybrid can get as mobile manufacturers have been improv- CO2 lbs/10m Btus 1.17 1.64 2.08 much as 90 percent of its driving energy ing efficiency by 1.5-2 percent per year 30 Note that on a pound basis, coal is from the existing electrical distribution for decades. This is insufficient for eager much less efficient than natural gas and system. He notes that the mileage of a Americans, who take any improvement oil. In addition it is more polluting per vehicle driven 40 miles per day commut- in efficiency and use it to add some other ing and 15,000 miles per year will get an energy consuming feature so there is never Btu generated relative to CO , 2.08 lbs 2 effective gasoline mileage of 250 miles. an improvement in miles per gallon. per 10,000 Btus for coal compared to 1.17 The words coal, uranium or natural gas lbs per 10,000 Btus for natural gas. It is also (the fuel sources for the electricity for the As we try desperately to maintain our much more polluting for Nitrogen Oxides, PHEV) do not appear in the article. fleet of large expensive and inefficient Sulfur Dioxide and Particulates but these are The article notes that Dr. Frank and secondary to the CO and are not further automobiles the rest of the world has 2 his students have constructed eight such analyzed. Since we are concerned with already made the first level of transition vehicles in the last 15 years by adding bat- transportation rather than other applica- and is starting on the next, leaving the teries to conventional autos. Contrast his tions, the main comparison is between statement and record to that of Honda, U.S. far behind. oil and coal. Natural gas is also used to the car company that has consistently generate electricity but used very little for made the smallest and most efficient cars The rest of the world does not buy the transportation; thus it is not included. in the world and has built millions of large wasteful cars that the U.S. prefers. vehicles. Honda developed the Insight, As earlier noted, the US mileage average is Back to the PHEV the most efficient car commercially sold about 21 miles per gallon. Last year, deep The previous somewhat complex analysis – a hybrid whose gas mileage approaches into the oil crisis and with more and more hopefully gives a bit more clarity. It is not three times the average fleet mileage and books and movies being made, the average as detailed as the well-to-wheels analysis of which has been on the market for almost consumption dropped slightly. In the mean- car companies but it is sufficient for a first a decade. time, European cars get an average of 42 approximation. The situation is similar On May 17, 2006 Mr. John German, m.p.g. and Japan 47. Many new European to the hydrogen and fuel cell idea. Once Manager, Environmental and Energy and Japanese cars are being announced you understand that hydrogen takes more Analyses for American Honda Motor that offer even better gas mileage. As we energy to get it into a usable form than it Company, Inc. testified before the try desperately to maintain our fleet of provides, fewer details are needed. Subcommittee on Energy of the Com- large expensive and inefficient automobiles In this case, once you understand that mittee on Science, U.S. House of Repre- the rest of the world has already made the the PHEV is more or less the EV of the sentatives. Dr. Frank also testified at the first level of transition and is starting on late 1990s resurrected and not some major same meeting. Mr. German recalled the the next, leaving the U.S. far behind. breakthrough it is easy to understand the experience in California when the state PAGE 12 : NEW SOLUTIONS JUNE 2006, NUMBER 9

Estimating Pollution A brief summary of the pollutions from converting to battery cars from gasoline points out another problem of the electric car scenario. A cursory back of the enve- lope calculation puts this in perspective. The U.S. uses 140 billion gallons of gasoline per year, which is the equivalent of 868 billion pounds of gasoline. Previ- ously it was noted that there is rough equivalency in efficiency (a coal plant uses 1/3 of the energy to generate electricity and an internal combustion engine wastes about the same to move the car) between fuel for a battery car versus a gasoline car. Since coal has half the Btu content of gas- oline, 1.74 trillion pounds of coal (twice the gasoline weight) could be needed each To replace a single coal, natural gas or nuclear plant requires hundreds of wind turbines. It year to generate the electricity for battery would take approximately 10 million 1-MW wind turbines to replace the 100 quads of energy driven cars (assuming a more or less equal consumed yearly in the U.S. . efficiency). 33 There are two pounds of CO2 generated $6.4 billion. The law of diminishing plant requires hundreds of wind turbines. for each pound of coal burned. This means returns suggests that the major improve- It would take approximately 10 million a potential 3.48 trillion pounds of CO2 ments in many alternative technologies 1-MW wind turbines to replace the 100 generated from a fleet of battery cars... have already been made and only mod- quads of energy in the U.S. consumed each year! est improvements can be expected in the yearly.34 Margot Gerritsen says that the US future, even with increased R&D. uses 100 Ej (exajoules) yearly and 200,000 The Renewables Option High oil prices and shortages will 2.5 MW turbines would be needed to For many years, fuel cell proponents have encourage the development of every form provide 5 percent of the energy. Scaling had to deal with the issues of obtaining of alternative energy, both liquid fuel this estimate to produce all energy and hydrogen from renewable energy. This options from plants, coal, tar sands and oil multiplying by 2.5 (to convert from 2.5- was somewhat of a farce – 96 percent of shale, as well as electricity from solar PV MW turbines to 1-MW turbines) results hydrogen comes from fossil fuels. The and wind turbines. Electricity generating in the same number of 10 million 1-MW situation is the same with the PHEV. renewable energy projects require long- turbines to provide the equivalent energy We will be told that coal can be a transi- term, capital intensive investments. Going used today.35 tion strategy with the ultimate source of from less than one percent of our energy The country burns 140 billion gallons electricity coming from sun and wind. to something like 40-50 percent is a huge of gasoline each year, which is approxi- This is not as simple as it seems. One of change in scale which may not even be mately 20 percent of the total energy the basic assumptions of those who think possible. This implies a long time for these consumed. Thus an estimate of 2 million there are easy alternatives to the current alternatives to deliver substantial amounts 1-MW wind turbines dedicated to run- fossil fuel system is that more investments of replacement electrical energy. It will ning cars is reasonable. At $1 million per will guarantee technical breakthroughs. take decades to replace fossil fuels (to the 1-MW wind turbine, a $2 trillion capital But our investment in alternatives has extent possible) with renewable electrical investment might be required. Similar been very large. energy. but smaller levels of investments would be Two reports by Roger Bezdek, co- A modern wind turbine generates from needed for diesel trucks and rail engines author of the well known , one to five megawatts (MW) of electric- This does not account for differences challenges the idea that only minor invest- ity when the wind is blowing. A natural in performance of battery versus gasoline ments have been made.31,32 He shows that gas-fired power plant, on the other hand, cars. Nor does it include the transmis- major investments are responsible for the generates anywhere from 500 to 1,000 sion losses of wind turbines. Current improvements in solar and wind and notes MW, and can do so around the clock, fossil fuel power plants are located more that investment since the late 1970s in more than 90 percent of the year. To or less uniformly around the country. It solar PV, solar thermal and wind totaled replace a single coal, natural gas or nuclear is important to locate power plants near NUMBER 9, JUNE 2006 NEW SOLUTIONS : PAGE 13 their users to minimize the distance that The Scam of Clean Coal getting hydrogen from natural gas and the electricity must travel, since the longer coal via steam reformation instead of the distance the more energy loss there – Carbon Sequestration from water via electrolysis, new adjective is in the transmission process. For the Whenever our national politicians, corpo- descriptors were added giving us terms highest efficiency, wind turbines might rations and lobbying organizations decide such as “black” hydrogen and “green” have to be located in windy places such as to redirect things, they typically begin with hydrogen. With the long overdue demise North Dakota, further from the end users language. Today the watchword of the of the hype of a Hydrogen Economy, of major coastal cities. Will the current energy industry is “clean.” The procedure the backup for both sides is coal versus ratings and productivity of current wind is straightforward – simply place the word some renewable option. Maybe we will turbines, which have been built in loca- “clean” in front of all fuels – coal, gas, oil, soon have “black” EVs and “green” EVs tions with optimum wind conditions, still uranium, wood. Nowhere is this more depending on the source of electricity prevail when millions must be built in less important than in the coal industry, coal We may ask how coal, which for those windy locations? The cost to install and being one of the dirtiest of fuels. Coal of us who have ever picked up a piece or operate alternate generators for periods has been declining in quality (resulting in had to shovel some, had gone from some- when the wind does not blow has also not more pollution per unit of energy gener- thing fairly dirty to something “clean.” been calculated. ated), at the same time that is being given Some investigation shows that coal has This brief analysis points out the the mantle of a “clean” fuel. not become cleaner but that the pollutants unknowns of wind systems. This does not An option to “clean” coal, tar sands, that are created when the coal is burned mean they should not be built. It simply heavy oil, etc., is “green.” Like “clean,” are “captured.” “Capture” in power termi- means we have insufficient data to deter- the word “green” is placed in front of any nology means that it is not going into the mine how much wind energy, or energy other term and said with a certain amount air any longer but that the pollutants are of sincerity. During the now waning days from other renewables, will be available to now being removed from the smokestacks of the Hydrogen Economy, both fossil replace fossil fuels. To believe that renew- or during the burning process and stored fuels and renewables proponents adopted able options will be able to replace oil, somewhere. Thus the filth is not in the air the idea of something that would be coal and natural gas at the same consump- but in some place on land. benign. When environmentalists realized tion level is naïve. We are told that Carbon Sequestra- that the fossil fuel supporters planned on tion (or Carbon Capture and Storage

Figure 4: Carbon Sequestration (Carbon Capture and Storage) PAGE 14 : NEW SOLUTIONS JUNE 2006, NUMBER 9

(CSS) will solve the problem. Using an time). Imagine thousands of power plants, in good conscience, say they really care energy intensive process, which means more burning coal or tar sands fuel, pumping about future generations or the survival of pollution, power plants will gasify the coal 33 billion pounds of CO2 per day – day life on the planet. and separate the CO2 from the gases. The after day, year after year – into the land resulting gas without the CO2 can be and the sea. And that’s just for the U.S. Destroying Worlds burned without polluting the atmosphere. On a worldwide basis visualize tens of We will commit to coal and hope Carbon Of course this leaves the disposition of the thousands of power plants pumping 130 Sequestration (or Bequestration) works. billion pounds of CO per day under the “captured” CO2 in question. And the vol- 2 But if it doesn’t we will not dismantle surface of our soils and seas. ume of CO2 is quite high. As we noted in the coal plants. If this is the choice we a previous section, the ratios by weight of Probably the better term for Carbon make, then our fate is assured. We could Sequestration is “Carbon Bequestration,” fossil fuels burned to CO2 is 2.9 for natu- destroy the living world, in what could be ral gas, 3.3 for oil and 2.1 for coal (Table as in a bequest of destruction to future the very near future, so we can drive our 1). Thus the coal powered power plants generations. This term may more realisti- cars a little longer. Representative Roscoe create about two pounds of pollutants for cally reflect the dubious nature of the idea. Bartlett said at the first meeting of the every pound of coal burned. Consider a clause in a will: “To my darling USA Association for the Study of Peak Oil children. I, being of unsound mind leave in November 2005, “In the 5000 years of Probably the better term for Carbon to you my personal legacy of 3,000,000 recorded history, 250 to 300 years and the Sequestration is Carbon Bequestration, pounds of CO , and a few hundred 2 age of oil is all over. What kind of world as in a bequest of destruction to future thousand pounds of plastic, glass, and will we leave our children, grandchildren generations in a will. miscellaneous toxins. Guard it well. And and great grandchildren? What will they I also leave you a few hundred pounds of say of us? Will our great grand children plutonium. Be particularly careful with Where will the CO2 be placed? Since say, “What kind of monsters must they the idea is to remove it from the air, the plutonium. Think of me and remem- have been?” And looking back at history obviously that leaves only the land or the ber I loved you even though it may not Dr. Bartlett added, “How dumb could a oceans. Both are being proposed as so look that way. “ civilization be that had a finite resource of Will the CO stay in place for centu- called “sinks” for the pollution. There are 2 really high quality energy and burned it all many suggested ways of doing this. One ries? How could we ever tell? Scientists up in such a short time, leaving essentially is to store the CO in old oil reservoirs. are ready to go as fast as possible on the nothing behind?” 2 basis of a miniscule amount of CO This could mean transporting it around 2 J. Robert Oppenheimer, one of the buried for a few years at a site in Norway’s the globe as we are transporting oil today. inventors of the atomic bomb, quoted Statoil’s Sleipner natural gas field in the Another option is to store the CO2 in old Vishnu in the Bhagavad-Gita shortly after North Sea and at the Weyburn Project coal mines (which will require transporta- the bomb exploded. Vishnu said “Now, in Canada just above the North Dakota tion of the CO2 by surface or pipelines to I am become Death, the destroyer of border.36 In the 10 years since those these mines) or it can be stored in aquifers worlds.” Oppenheimer said, “If atomic projects began they have pumped into the deep under the surface. Finally, burying bombs are to be added as new weapons to ground about 30 billion pounds of CO . it in deep sediment layers of the ocean 2 the arsenals of a warring world, or to the Over the 10-year period this is an aver- beneath the water is possible. Placing it arsenals of the nations preparing for war, age of 10 million pounds per day, which directly into the oceans may change the then the time will come when mankind is about .0001 percent of the possible acidity of the water. will curse the names of Los Alamos and load discussed above.36 The CO has been The volumes are unbelievably large. 2 Hiroshima. The people of this world must stored now for an average of five years. We could have thousands of power plants unite or they will perish.” An uneasy peace around the globe generating CO with a FutureGen, a project in the U.S. to build 2 has kept this from happening – so far. a coal plant with sequestration, is expected huge infrastructure of trains, pipes and Meanwhile we have been quietly destroy- to be completed sometime around 2012. ships delivering the fuel. Consider the ing the world with fossil fuels. Our will- CO to be “sequestered” from a single At that point it will be testable. What is 2 ingness to consider risking all life so we U.S. resident. The average American a good test period to determine if it will can drive big cars fast and consume more already generates about 40,000 pounds stay buried for a thousand years? 50 years? junk shows the level of depravity of CO per year. The approximately 50 months? Or do we even care? Isn’t it 2 to which we have sunk. 290,000,000 U.S. citizens generate a total enough that it would stay buried for the – lifetime of the scientists proposing it or Pat Murphy of 12 trillion pounds of CO2 per year. (Each American will generate about 3 maybe the lifetime of their children? But million pounds of CO2 in his or her life- no one involved with this work could ever, NUMBER 9, JUNE 2006 NEW SOLUTIONS : PAGE 15

References: 20. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battery_ 1. Ian Lowe; http://www.futuresfoundation. electric_vehicle Beyond Energy org.au /Future-News/Features-percent- 21. http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/infosheets/ 28General percent29/Stealing-from-the- apples.htm Alternatives future-percent28or-how-to-destroy-the- 22. “100,000 Mile Evaluation of the Toyota planet-in-seven-easy-steps percent29- RAV4 EV,” by Thomas J. Knipe; http://www. 20060129246/ evchargernews.com/miscfiles/sce-rav4ev- The Third U.S. 2. The Hydrogen Economy, Jeremy Rifkin 100k.pdf Conference on 3. The Hype About Hydrogem, Joseph Romm 23. http:// www.fueleconomy.gov 4. http://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/ 24. Statement of Pete V. Domenici; Peak Oil and background.html http://energy.senate.gov/public/index.cfm? 5. http://www.gasandoil.com/goc/news/ FuseAction=Hearings.Statement&Statement_ Community ntn33212.htm ID=14 Solutions 6. The Next Economy, Amory Lovins, p.38, 25 http://www.faqs.org/qa/qa-21281.html 1999 26. http://www.commercialventvac.com/ Friday evening, Sept. 22- 7. “New Fuel-Cell Vehicles Need 20 Years ~jeffs/RemovingADam.html Sunday, Sept. 24, 2006 To Prevail?,” Japan Information Network 27. http://www.naturalgas.org/environment/ Business, May 6, 2006 ; http://www.jinbn. naturalgas.asp com/2006/05/06013036.html 28. http://www.renewableenergyaccess.com/ Yellow Springs, Ohio 8. “The War on Terror: The Energy Front,” rea/news/story?id=44254 – author, The James Woolsey, FrontPageMagazine.com, 29. http://www.evworld.com/library/lamar- Party’s Over and Powerdown May 2, 2006; http://www.frontpagemag. smith_phevbill.pdf) com/Articles/ReadArticle.asp?ID=22286 30. http://www.house.gov/science/hearings/ Vicki Robin – author, Your Money or 9. http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/inter- energy06/May%2017/German.pdf Your Life; president, the New Road views/466 31. Issues in Science and Technology; The Map Foundation 10. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BLDP National Academies; University of Texas Julian Darley – author, High &t=my&l=off&z=m&q=l&c= at Dallas, Spring 2006, “The U.S. Energy 11. U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Subsidy Scorecard,” Roger H. Bezdek & Noon for Natural Gas; Director, Relations, November 16, 2005, High Cost of Robert M. Wendling; http://www.issues. , co-author, Crude: The New Currency of Foreign Policy, org/22.3/22.3preview.html Relocalize Now! testimony of R. James Woolsey; http://www. 32. Energy News...Interpretation...Analysis, David Orr – Chair, Environmental fightingterror.org/pdfs/O&S8-5-05.pdf Winter 2006, “Support for R&D,” by Roger 12 http://www.hybridcars.com/history.html H. Bezdek and Robert M. Wendling, BCC Studies Department, Oberlin College 13 http://www.hybridcars.com/hybrid- Research Jeff Christian – director of Oak coverup-1974.html 33. “Solar Surprise,” EV World ,May 1, 2006; Ridge National Laboratory’s Building 14. May 17, 2006, Subcommittee on Energy http://www.evworld.com/view.cfm?section= Technology Center Hearing, The Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle article&storyid=1022 Act of 2006 (Discussion Draft); http://www. 34. New Solutions 3, October 2004; http:// Peter Bane – Editor, house.gov/science/hearings/energy06/ www.communitysolution.org/pdfs/NS3.pdf Activist magazine May%2017/ 35. “Banking on Alternative Energy?,” Mar- Richard Olson – Director, Sustain- 15. Hillory; http://www.rawstory.com/ got Gerritsen (& colleagues), School of Earth ability and Environmental Studies news/2006/Hailing_Gore_committed_ Sciences, Stanford University; http://pangea. visionary_Clinton_unveils_0523.html stanford.edu/outreach/docs/LectureSlide- Program, Berea College 16. Liberman; http://lieberman.senate.gov/ Shows/AlternativeEnergy.pdf Sharon Astyk – Community newsroom/release.cfm?id=247129 36. “Discussion Points,” Makoto Akai, Supported Agriculture farmer 17. An Energy Summary of Brazil; http:// Workshop on CDM Methodological Issues www.cslforum.org/brazil.htm in regard to Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS); http://www.meti.go.jp/policy/ For more information, or to 18. http://www.cfr.org/publication/7958/ global_enviroment/kyomecha/060602CCS_ register online, go to www. 500milepergallon_solution.html WS(20-21,April)/presentations/420/17.05%20 communitysolution.org. 19. http://www.apolloalliance.org/about_the_ -%20Makoto%20Akai%20-%20060420_ alliance/newsletters/03_22_05.cfm Discussion_Points.pdf New Solutions is published by Resources Peak Oil Books Other Recommended Community Service, Inc. The Power of Community: How : The View From Resources under its program, The Cuba Survived Peak Oil Hubbert’s Peak by Kenneth S. The Conserver Society: Alternatives for Community Solution. Community Service, Inc., A new documentary film that shows Deffeyes March, 2005 Sustainability, Ted Trainer a non-profit organization, how Cuba responded to the loss The Final . edited by The Circle of Simplicity: Return to the has been studying and of more than 50 percent of its oil Andrew McKillop, April 2005 Good Life, Cecile Andrews promoting small local imports when the USSR collapsed. community for more : Surviving the The Small Community, Arthur Produced by The Community than 60 years. End of the Oil Age, Climate Change, Morgan, 1942 (available from CSI) Solution. Order in DVD or VHS at To receive New and Other Converging Catastrophes Solutions on a regular www.communitysolution.org/cuba. 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