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AIS-Based Multiple Vessel Collision and Grounding Risk Identification Journal of Marine Science and Engineering Article AIS-Based Multiple Vessel Collision and Grounding Risk Identification based on Adaptive Safety Domain Azzeddine Bakdi 1,*, Ingrid Kristine Glad 1, Erik Vanem 1,2 and Øystein Engelhardtsen 2 1 Department of Mathematics, University of Oslo, 0851 Oslo, Norway; [email protected] (I.K.G.); [email protected] (E.V.) 2 DNV GL Group Technology and Research, 1322 Høvik, Norway; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] Received: 21 November 2019; Accepted: 17 December 2019; Published: 19 December 2019 Abstract: The continuous growth in maritime traffic and recent developments towards autonomous navigation have directed increasing attention to navigational safety in which new tools are required to identify real-time risk and complex navigation situations. These tools are of paramount importance to avoid potentially disastrous consequences of accidents and promote safe navigation at sea. In this study, an adaptive ship-safety-domain is proposed with spatial risk functions to identify both collision and grounding risk based on motion and maneuverability conditions for all vessels. The algorithm is designed and validated through extensive amounts of Automatic Identification System (AIS) data for decision support over a large area, while the integration of the algorithm with other navigational systems will increase effectiveness and ensure reliability. Since a successful evacuation of a potential vessel-to-vessel collision, or a vessel grounding situation, is highly dependent on the nearby maneuvering limitations and other possible accident situations, multi-vessel collision and grounding risk is considered in this work to identify real-time risk. The presented algorithm utilizes and exploits dynamic AIS information, vessel registry and high-resolution maps and it is robust to inaccuracies of position, course and speed over ground records. The computation-efficient algorithm allows for real-time situation risk identification at a large-scale monitored map up to country level and up to several years of operation with a very high accuracy. Keywords: AIS; risk identification; maritime navigation accident; multiple vessels; collision risk; grounding risk; spatial risk function; vessel maneuverability; safety domain; decision support 1. Introduction Maritime transport activities shape a new type of economic sector considered as the blue economy [1]. Since about 90% of the world’s merchandise are transported by sea [2], maritime transport plays a central and potential role in economy nowadays. In parallel, safety requirements are continuously improved to avoid hazardous accidents and ensure a sustainable growth in maritime operations. According to the recent annual review of marine casualties and incidents in 2018 [3] by the European maritime safety agency, more than 20,000 marine casualties and incidents have been reported at the European level in 2011–2017 only. Together, these accidents caused more than 680 fatalities and over 6800 injuries. Navigational accidents represent 53.1% of all casualties with ships as a combination of: grounding (16.6%), contact (16.3%) and collision (23.2%). Despite being slightly different, the rates of maritime navigation accidents are still tragically high according to marine casualty and pollution database collected by United States Coast Guard (USCG) and provided in July 2015 (not all 2014–2015 accidents reported) by marine information and safety and law reinforcement [4]. In a total of 34,540 reported and fully investigated navigation accidents between 2000 and mid 2015, around 43.5% of the accidents were groundings, 39.6% were allisions with a static object and 16.9% were collisions J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2020, 8, 5; doi:10.3390/jmse8010005 www.mdpi.com/journal/jmse J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2020, 8, 5 22 of of 19 object and 16.9% were collisions as demonstrated in Figure 1. A high-level risk analysis on passenger as demonstrated in Figure1. A high-level risk analysis on passenger ship collisions presented in ship collisions presented in Reference [5] suggested that risk control options related to navigation Reference [5] suggested that risk control options related to navigation should be considered to reduce should be considered to reduce the overall risk of collision and that navigational aspects are the overall risk of collision and that navigational aspects are important. important. 1400 Grounding Allision 1200 Collision s t 1000 n e d i c 800 c a f o r 600 e b m u 400 N 200 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year Figure 1. Investigated navigation accidents in USA 2000–2015. Data was from Reference [4]. Figure 1. Investigated navigation accidents in USA 2000–2015. Data was from Reference [4]. The consequences of maritime accidents can be fairly high as reported by transportation safety boardThe of Canadaconsequences [6] where of maritime the provided accidents data tablescan be includefairly high the completeas reported investigations by transportation into marine safety transportationboard of Canada occurrences [6] where inthe 2013–2019. provided data From tables the reported include 79,000the complete accidents, investigations 80.8% caused into damage, marine 9.86%transport causedation aoccurrences confirmed in pollution, 2013–2019. 7.99% From caused the reported minor injuries,79,000 accidents, 4.39% caused 80.8% seriouscaused damage, injuries, while9.86% 4.01%caused of a confirmed the accidents pollution, caused 7.99% fatalities. caused The minor reported injuries, accidents 4.39% alsocaused occurred serious during injuries, various while environmental4.01% of the accidents conditions caused as depicted fatalities. in Figure The 2,reported in which accidents wind speed, also visibility occurred condition during andvarious sea stateenvironmental have weak conditions effects as accidentas depicted factors. in Figure A full 2, literature in which review wind speed, on research visibility in maritime condition accidents and sea isstate provided have weak in Reference effects as [ 7accident] which factors. lists diff Aerent full literature research methodsreview on and research data sources in maritime in this accidents context. Tois provided help reduce in Referenc the occurrencee [7] which rates lists of such different accidents, research qualitative methods research and data methods sources were in this deployed context. to understandTo help reduce the rootthe occurrence causes such rates as maritime of such navigationaccidents, qualitative risk indicators research [8] with methods explanatory were deployed variables suchto understand as vessel type the asroot well causes as flag such of convenience as maritime and navigation visibility conditions,risk indicators human [8] andwith organizational explanatory factorsvariables [9 ]such and includingas vessel type decision as well errors as flag due of to conditionsconvenience of and operators visibility and conditions, personnel human factors and socio-technicalorganizational factors [9] [10 ]and such including as the interactions decision errors between due shipto conditions operators. of Theoperators qualitative and personnel approach isfactors however and not socio very-technical precise as factors Figure 2[10] shows such since as mostthe interactions accidents occurred between during ship good operators. conditions. The Moreover,qualitative takingapproach into is accounthowever the not tra veryffic densitiesprecise as during Figure each2 shows condition since most and itsaccidents frequencies, occurred the correlationsduring good between conditions. sea /Moreover,wind/visibility taking conditions into account and thethe numberstraffic densities of accidents during are each very condition weak as foundand its in frequencies, Reference [ 8the]. Alternatively,correlations between the authors sea/ ofwind Reference/visibility [11 ]conditions demonstrated and thatthe numbers the general of maritimeaccidents safetyare very approach weak isas reactive found andin Reference that accidents [8]. cannotAlternatively, be predicted. the authors In real time,of Reference collision and[11] groundingdemonstrated risk that depends the general on the tramaritimeffic configuration safety approach represented is reactive by the and number that ofaccidents sailing vessels cannot and be theirpredicted. locations, In real relative time, collision speed and and course grounding to each risk other depends and to on near the objects traffic andconfiguration their maneuverability represented suchby the as number the stopping of sailing distance vessels [12] and as well their as locations, the tactical relative diameter, speed maximum and course advance to each and other track and reach to definednear objects by the a Internationalnd their maneuverability Maritime Organization such as the (IMO). stopping These aspectsdistance are [12] described as well in as the the following tactical anddiameter, they are maximum incorporated advance in the and design track of reach the proposed defined by risk the identification International method. Maritime Organization (IMO). These aspects are described in the following and they are incorporated in the design of the proposed risk identification method. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2020, 8, 5 3 of 19 J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2020, 8, 5 3 of 19 79766 accidents vs sea-state 17 (2%) 16 (0%) 1: CALM (GLASSY) - 0 meters 2: CALM (RIPPLED) - 0 to 0.1 meters 3: CONFUSED 4: HIGH - 6 to 9 meters 1 (30%) 5: ICE COVERED - HEAVY 15 (30%) 6: ICE COVERED - LIGHT 7: ICE COVERED - MODERATE 8: ICE PATCHES 9: MODERATE - 1.25 to 2.5 meters
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