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Download the Programme PROGRAMME KOSOVO’S ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT A NEW REALISM Friday 26 January – Sunday 28 January 2007 WPS07/2 WILTON PARK CONFERENCE In association with the European Stability Initiative [ESI] With the support of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and The Royal Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Norway The Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs The conference aims to assist the Government of Kosovo address its biggest challenge after Final Status; how to manage the economic and political resources available as effectively as possible to address Kosovo’s economic under-development, and shape an environment in which more jobs are created. At the centre of this debate stands the most recent draft of the Kosovo Development Strategy Paper [KDSP]. As one extrapolates from developments in recent years to 2013, one faces a scenario in which a post-status Kosovo will fall further and further behind the rest of Europe both economically and socially. The KDSP, based on a broad consultative process, points out a number of hard truths: firstly, that if current trends continue the average citizen of Kosovo will be poorer in 2009 and in 2013 than he or she is today. Secondly, Kosovo’s institutions will be unable to provide more services or transfers in 2009 than today, and pay civil servants less in total wages and salaries in 2009 than now. And third, the currently very high unemployment rate will remain as high in 2009 as it is at this moment. The conclusions from the KDSP constitute a new realism about the future of Kosovo. It is a realism that is very different from the often-utopian expectations of sudden prosperity that were widespread even a few years ago. It underlines the urgency of finding ways to make a successful break with the recent past. Thus, the new realism constitutes the obvious starting point for broader policy reflections on how to promote successful development. In the KDPS such reflections are embedded in what it calls a “reform-driven scenario” of higher growth. However, even in the KSDP’s ‘optimistic’ scenario, the average Kosovar will be as poor in 2009 as he or she is today. Even in the reform scenario, the absolute number of unemployed will be as high in 2013 as it is today despite the creation of 100,000 new jobs. Even under this scenario, Kosovo will not begin to catch up even with its immediate neighbours. Is this, too, merely a reflection of a new realism? Or are there credible policy proposals to go beyond the ‘optimistic’ scenario of the KDSP? Thus, starting with the analysis of the KDSP and the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework [MTEF], the conference will consider concrete options open to the Kosovo Government. In the spirit of Kosovo’s new realism the conference will explore ways to go beyond the “baseline scenario”, looking deeper in to the proposals already made in the KDSP (power generation, mineral exploration, keeping open access to labour markets abroad), while also exploring experiences from the neighbourhood that might offer relevant lessons for Kosovo. It also seeks to explore what it would take for public institutions and outside actors (donors, as well as the European Union as a policy setter) to translate any ideas into policies and outputs that would have a visible impact. The urgency to address the employment crisis in Kosovo today is central to the debate. The debate will also draw on original research by ESI. The conference is off the record. All sessions are plenaries unless otherwise stated, FRIDAY 26 JANUARY 2007 2100 WELCOME Chris LANGDON South-East Europe Programme Director, Wilton Park SATURDAY 27 JANUARY 2007 0915-0935 1 BEYOND THE NEW REALISM CONFERENCE AIMS AND OBJECTIVES Chris LANGDON Director, South-East Europe, Wilton Park Presenting the Conference Background Paper Gerald KNAUS President, European Stability Initiative (ESI), Istanbul 0935-1100 BEYOND THE BASELINE SCENARIO: BREAKING WITH THE PAST What are the options for the Kosovo government to promote development and job creation in a post-status Kosovo? And what are the expectations of the goverrnment from donors and outside institutions? Haki SHATRI Minister of Finance and Economy, Pristina Bujar DUGOLLI Minister of Trade and Industry, Pristina 1130-1300 2 BEYOND THE BASELINE SCENARIO: CREATING JOBS What does the analysis underlying the KDSP and the MTEF tell us about the prospects for employment creation in Kosovo in the coming years? Which concrete policy measures are promising in addressing the serious unemployment crisis? Arianit BLAKAJ Economist and Planner, KDSP, Pristina Peter THURLOW Economic Advisor, Office of the Minister, Ministry of Finance and Economy, Pristina Discussants: Andreas WITTKOWSKY Deputy Head, Pillar IV, UNMIK, Pristina Shpend AHMETI Operations Officer, World Bank, Pristina 1500-1600 3 LESSONS FROM THE NEIGHBOURHOOD: EUROPEANISATION, TEXTILES, MIGRATION What can be learned from Kosovo’s neighbours about successful development and job creation? What is the European context of Kosovo “breaking with stagnation”? Gerald KNAUS President, ESI, Istanbul 1630-1830 4 ADDRESSING SOLUTIONS: DISCUSSION GROUPS The groups will be tasked with coming up with a set of concrete policy proposals 1) JOBS AND PROSPERITY IN THE ENCLAVES What are the key issues that have to be addressed to create a sustainable economic base for the Serb minority? How much – given the resource constraints outlined in the KDSP – can be expected from the Kosovo government? What should be the role of Serbia? Chair: Oliver IVANOVIĆ Member, Kosovo Assembly, Pristina 2) COAL AND ELECTRICITY How much will Kosovo benefit in terms of jobs and growth from the energy investments envisaged in the KDSP’s ‘optimistic’ scenario? Chair John BRADLEY Director, Economic Modelling and Development Systems, Dublin Pranvera DOBRUNA Managing Director, Kosovo Energy Corporation, Pristina Elizabeth HUYBENS Lead Country Officer, World Bank, Washington DC Astrit BEQA Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Energy and Mining, Pristina SUNDAY 28 JANUARY 2007 0915-1045 5 THE RURAL DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGE IN KOSOVO TODAY What is the nature of the current crisis in rural Kosovo? What steps are needed to produce positive growth and employment in the coming years? What can the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Rural Development do to help achieve this? What would be useful support measures from the international community? Chair: Besa SHAHINI Director, Iniciativa Kosovare pėr Stabilitet (IKS), Pristina Overview: Verena KNAUS Analyst, ESI, Pristina Tomë HAJDARAJ Deputy Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Rural Development, Pristina Qazim KUKALAJ Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Rural Development, Pristina 1115-1215 6 LESSONS FROM EUROPE: EXPORT-LED GROWTH AND JOB CREATION IN SMALL EUROPEAN ECONOMIES John BRADLEY Director, Economic Modelling and Development Systems, Dublin 1400-1600 7 DISCUSSION GROUPS The groups will be tasked with coming up with a set of concrete policy proposals. 1) CAN MIGRATION SOLVE THE JOBLESS CRISIS The KDSP stresses “the importance of maintaining access to labour markets abroad – accommodating continued access of Kosovars to their labour markets will be the most important contribution the international community can make to the alleviation of Kosovar poverty in the medium term”. What can Kosovo’s institutions do to translate this realisation into concrete policies? Chair: Eggert HARDTEN Analyst, ESI, Berlin Ylber SHABANI Director, Department of Labour and Employment, Ministry of Labour and Social Welfare, Pristina 2) THE EUROPEAN ROLE IN KOSOVO What precisely is the European role in Kosovo’s economic development? Chair: Gerald KNAUS President, ESI, Istanbul Ben CRAMPTON Special Adviser, International Civilian Office/EU Special Representative Preparation Team, Pristina Genoveva (Veva) RUIZ CALAVERA Head of Kosovo Issues Unit, Enlargement Directorate, European Commission, Brussels 1700-1800 8 SPECIFIC POLICY PROPOSALS DISCUSSION GROUPS REPORT BACK Eggert HARDTEN Analyst, ESI, Berlin Elizabeth HUYBENS Lead Country Officer, World Bank, Washington DC John BRADLEY Director, Economic Modelling and Development Systems, Dublin Oliver IVANOVIC Member, Kosovo Assembly, Pristina 1800-1845 9 CLOSING SESSION WHAT CAN THE KOSOVO GOVERNMENT DO TO GO BEYOND THE BASELINE? What are the useful suggestions and ideas from the conference, and how would the PISG want them to be taken forward? How does the PISG see the best way to achieve a better growth rate than is envisaged in the baseline scenario? Lutfi HAZIRI Deputy Prime Minister, Pristina MONDAY 29 JANUARY 2007 0830 Conference participants depart .
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