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Somalia Socio-Economic Impact Assessment (SEIA) of COVID-19

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Somalia Socio-Economic Impact Assessment (SEIA) of COVID-19 Somalia Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of COVID-19 FINAL REPORT Somalia Socio-Economic Impact Assessment (SEIA) of COVID-19 March 15, 2021 i Somalia Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of COVID-19 FINAL REPORT FOREWORD BY THE MINISTER It is with great pleasure that I present the Socio-Economic Impact Assessment (SEIA) of COVID-19 on Somalia. Somalia has in recent years suffered a range of recurring shocks and natural disasters such as floods, droughts and locust infestation. The COVID-19 global pandemic has amplified the impact of the last round of these re-occurring shocks, undermining the country’s prospects of economic recovery. In an effort to measure the economic and social impacts of the pandemic, the Ministry of Planning Investment, and Economic Development undertook the Socio-Economic Impact Assessment (SEIA) which will inform the planning of appropriate response and recovery measures. The assessment has collated evidence from over 30 discrete COVID-19 related studies already conducted in Somalia. As such it analyses the existing evidence on the impact of the pandemic and provides greater insights on the extent of this impact while drawing recommendations for appropriate actions. In this regard, the report serves as a guidance for the government as a whole in its on-going efforts to gain a greater understanding of the impact of the pandemic in terms of scale, and its effects on the economy. This report also provides insight on the impact of the pandemic on households across different regions and social groups, and among vulnerable groups in particular. This is even more critical at the time given the significant resurgence of the disease in this deadly second wave. Another area in which this report can potentially make a contribution to relevant policymaking is the strengthening of coordination between various actors involved in funding and/or implementing programs relating to recovery and resilience building measures across the country. Somalia’s Ninth National Development Plan (NDP9) 2020-2024 provides an opportunity to advance Government-led coordination. NDP9 also aims to set a clear path to build the economy and reduce poverty, while focusing on inclusivity, resilience-building, and durable solutions to displacement. The SEIA seeks to simplify and harmonize existing frameworks and plans, including the Somalia Recovery and Resilience Framework (RRF), the National Reconciliation Framework, the NDP, Durable Solutions Strategy for internal displacement, the Drought Response Plan, and the Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP). This harmonization exercise will facilitate coordination and alignment across development and humanitarian actors. Furthermore, ongoing related projects, such as the Somalia Crisis Recovery Project (SCRP) can also benefit from the SEIA. While the Project intends to promote a ‘whole-of-government’ approach to incentivizing cooperation and enhancing state-citizen-trust through state-led responses to the multiple crises confronting the country, this report can provide the necessary data and analysis necessary to inform these responses. I would like to thank the SEIA Advisory Board Members especially the Office of the Prime Minister, the FGS ministries of Commerce, Finance, Livestock, Fisheries, Agriculture, Directorate of Environment and FMS Ministries of Planning for their invaluable contributions to the SEIA report. Similarly, I would like to thank the UNDP and the team who prepared this report, Dr. Peter J. Middlebrook, Dr. Abdirizak Hassan & Amba Tadaa, as well as the SEIA coordinators Mr. Muse Mohamed (Director of Planning – MoPIED), Laura Rio, Dr. Pau Blanquer and Omar Isack (UNDP). Finally, I would also like to extend our gratitude and appreciation for the generosity of the Japanese Government in funding this study. Amb. Gamal M Hassan Minister of Planning, Investment and Economic Development Federal Government of Somalia ii Somalia Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of COVID-19 FINAL REPORT NOTE TO THE READER This Socio-Economic Impact Assessment (SEIA) has been established by collating over 30 discrete COVID-19 related survey works emanating from the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS), the Federal Member States (FMS) and international cooperation partners. The analysis and results presented here are limited to the available data as of December 15, 2020. Despite the fact that various surveys are still ongoing, and that this impact assessment will be continuously updated, the results largely reflect the reality of the situation. Population estimates however bedevil statistical certainty. Estimates for the population of Somalia range from 12 million (CBRP), to 14 million (IMF, 2018) and 15.4 million World Bank; a 20 plus percentage variance that affects all analysis. It is assumed – given the results of the SEIA – and continued global lockdown and logistical delays in vaccinating the global community – that the current crisis will continue into 2021 and beyond. Clearly, if the 2017 drought were to reappear in 2021, in a year of elections, the multiplier effects of various factors alongside COVID-19 risks being a very bad year indeed. REFERENCE MATERIAL The work and results of this SEIA are owed to the collective reporting efforts of National Agencies as well as the International Community. Since the beginning of the pandemic, numerous specific and general assessments and surveys have been commissioned, forming the backbone of the analysis presented here. Thanks, are particularly owed to the work of the National Bureau of Statistics and the World Bank and IMF in Somalia, for data and analysis on the macro- economic trends of the Somali Economy. Data on business level impacts draws from the work of UNIDO, MoCI, IFC and the Somali Chamber of Commerce, as well as through separate surveys undertaken by Raagsan and the Nordic Horn of Africa Opportunities Fund (NHAOF). Data on vulnerable groups comes from a variety of sources, which are referenced in respective throughout – though significant contributions are drawn from UN Agencies and other international partners. iii Somalia Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of COVID-19 FINAL REPORT EXECUTIVE BRIEF.......................................................................................................................................XI MACRO-ECONOMIC, BUSINESS AND VULNERABILITY FINDINGS ....................................................................................... XX MACRO-ECONOMIC IMPACT SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................... XX BUSINESS IMPACT SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................. XXI VULNERABILITY IMPACT SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................... XXII 1. CONTEXT AND BACKGROUND ............................................................................................................ 1 1.1. SEIA OBJECTIVE ..........................................................................................................................................1 1.2. POLICY AND IMPACT LEVEL DESIGN CONSIDERATIONS ........................................................................................1 1.3. SEIA FRAMEWORK ALIGNMENT AND HARMONIZATION ......................................................................................4 1.4. CHRONOLOGY OF EVENTS .............................................................................................................................4 1.5. GOVERNMENT COORDINATION STRUCTURE ......................................................................................................7 1.6. NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN (2020-2024) IMPACT .....................................................................................7 1.7. UN SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT COOPERATION FRAMEWORK ............................................................................8 2. METHODOLOGY .............................................................................. ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. 2.1. GENERAL APPROACH ................................................................................................................................. 11 2.2. OTHER CONSIDERATIONS ........................................................................................................................... 13 2.3. KEY DIMENSION INDICATORS ...................................................................................................................... 14 2.4. COVID-19 IMPACT MODELLING ................................................................................................................. 14 2.5. OVERVIEW OF DATA SOURCES .................................................................................................................... 15 3. TRANSMISSION CHANNELS .............................................................................................................. 18 3.1. HEALTH TRANSMISSION CHANNEL ............................................................................................................... 18 3.2. MACRO-ECONOMIC TRANSMISSION CHANNEL ............................................................................................... 18 3.3. BUSINESS TRANSMISSION CHANNEL ............................................................................................................. 19 3.4. HOUSEHOLD TRANSMISSION CHANNELS.......................................................................................................
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