UK Commercial Property Investment Review Q3 2014
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Moving towards a new phase in the cycle Yields compress at fastest rate in five years UK Commercial Property Investment Review Q3 2014 sponsored by CoStar Group Table of Contents Overview ........................................................................ 3 Major Events (Q1 -Q3 2014) ............................................ 4 Key Transactions in Q3 2014 ............................................ 7 Highlights from CoStar Data ........................................... 8 Retail on the Upswing ..................................................... 9 Majority of Investment Flows into Regions ....................... 10 Foreign Investment Spreading Beyond London ................. 11 East Asian Capital Flocks to UK Real Estate ...................... 12 Yields Below Five-Year Averages in All Sectors ................... 16 Are Strategies Starting to Shift? ...................................... 17 League Tables: Familiar Faces at the Top .......................... 18 League Tables: Spotlight on Single Branch ........................ 19 Data, Analytics and News Have Come Together .............. 21 Get in Touch with CoStar ................................................ 23 Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information held within this report. The publisher cannot accept liability for any loss/ damage which may arise as a result of any error or omission of any data. Any data reproduced from this analysis must be accredited to CoStar. Investment Review Q3 2014 Overview Key Figures UK CRE investment is set for its strongest year since 2006, propelled by another strong quarter of trading in Q3 2014. Investment totalled £15.2bn £15.2bn invested in UK commercial across 750 transactions, a jump of 20% Y-o-Y. properties in Q3 2014 Assuming the average Q3 to Q4 uplift is consistent up 20% with the previous four years’ results, UK CRE on Q3 2013 investment is projected to top £62bn in 2014, the highest annual total since 2006. share of investment again in Q3 with 40% of all £4.5bn invested in the retail sector investment, the quarter was notable for the weight of capital ploughed into the UK’s retail sector, and a 54% increase from retail warehouses in particular. Investment in this Q3 2013 subsector quadrupled Q-o-Q to £1.6bn, by far the were also popular in Q3, with more than £1 billion average all traded in this sector for only the second time in the property yield last seven years. 6.97% In a continuation of the recent trend, investment its lowest level outside of London strengthened further in since Q2 2010 accelerating economy, improving market pricing in London. As in Q2, 55% of investment found its way into the regions (excluding multi- 55% region portfolios), the highest percentage since Q1 of total volume invested outside London 2011. the joint highest The sheer weight of demand is pushing down yields share since Q1 2011 across the board. The average all-property yield tumbled another 57bps over the quarter to 6.97%, its lowest level since Q2 2010. However, with yields £2.5bn in all property sectors, rental growth will need to invested in “Big Six” regional cities over the last year replace sentiment as the primary driver of capital value growth over the next 12 months. The time up 150% for picking up well-let assets and waiting for yield on the previous 12 months compression to drive values looks to be at an end. 3 CoStar Group Major Events January February March £ £ £ £ £ £ Apollo Global Management buys Aviva's Project Moon portfolio for £352m at 11.2% yield. The £1.7bn sale of Union Investment buys US investor Hines, on behalf Hyperion Portfolio Westfield sells stakes in More London to St Martins One Snowhill in Birmingham of a German pension fund, (55 properties) bought by three shopping centres Investment completes. for £125m at 6.2% yield. purchases Sixty London, Legal & General for £556.5m. (Merry Hill, Derby, The joint highest UK property EC1, for £245m at 4.75% yield. It is the largest portfolio Sprucefield) to Intu for a transaction of all time. The building was fully leased sale of Q1. combined £868m. to Amazon in 2013. Developers reveal that two Wave of spec industrial prominent, hitherto-stalled plans announced with shopping centre developments - IM Properties’ 54,000 Westgate in Oxford and SF in Solihull, SEGRO’s M&G goes under offer Asda leases 310,000 SF EY pre-lets 205,000 SF at 25 Barclays Bank takes Victoria Gate in Leeds - 93,000 SF in West on a 300,000 SF pre-let distribution warehouse in Churchill Place in London 81,000 SF at 4 Piccadilly will begin construction soon. London, and Prologis’ of 120 Fenchurch Street Belvedere as retailers Docklands. EY will pay Place in Manchester's 340,000 SF in in London's City Core, continue to drive demand £48.50/SF and relocate from largest leasing deal for Leasing & Leasing Northampton and in the latest sign of for logistics. Becket House in London's a year. 140,000 SF at Heathrow. Development strength in the City's Southbank in 2015. occupier market. 130 + 126 After four years of falling real wages, 115.9 116.9 rises in earnings matched inflation, 122 Consumer confidence which fell further. 118 turns positive for 112.8 114 UK inflation rate falls to the first time since 1.9%, below the Bank of Unemployment figures show March 2005. OECD forecast: UK to grow by 110 England's 2% target for the a further drop to 7.2% in the three 0.8% in Q1 and Q2, outpacing 106 first time since 2009. months to December 2013. US, Japan, and Germany. Economic 102 Sentiment 98 94 102.4 - 100.9 101.2 90 UK Sentiment Eurozone Sentiment 100 = Long term average Economic Sentiment Source: European Commission 4 Investment Review Q3 2014 April May June £ £ £ £ £ £ SWIP agrees a £92m deal to M&G Real Estate Legal & General Property forward-fund 167,000 SF of purchases a Sainsbury's forward-fund new Waitrose speculative office space at store in East Dulwich for distribution centre in Milton Following intense bidding, 10 Upper Bank Street in Big month for London: 12 Hammersmith Grove in £68m at a 3.95% yield in Keynes in a £114m deal at a Land Securities buys Lend London's Docklands Blackstone under offer on West London. Completion the largest supermarket yield of just 4.64%. Lease's 30% stake in the bought by China Life, Qatar Investment Alban Gate in the City for due in Q1 2016. trade of Q2. Bluewater shopping centre Holding and Canary Wharf £300m, while Tishman in Kent for £696m, Group for £795m in the Speyer acquires 33 Holborn reflecting a yield of 4.10%. largest deal of Q2. for £311m. Work starts on the 1.06m SF A14 Central distribution London's Southbank set centre in Northamptonshire for building boom as following a major pre-let to 1.45m SF Shell Centre FCA signs 425,000 SF an international retailer. and 1.42m SF Elizabeth pre-let at Stratford's new House schemes given International Quarter. FCA Estée Lauder pre-lets the green light. Carlyle will move in 2018 and be entire 152,000 SF at 1 Japanese bank Mizuho Law firm Slater & Gordon Group also launches Leasing & Leasing joined by TFL, which Fitzroy Place in London's pre-lets 193,000 SF at completes major Manchester Bankside Quarter. Development agreed a 250,000 SF West End in the West End's Two New Ludgate in the HQ move, leasing the entire pre-let. biggest deal since 2011. City in a strong month for 104,000 SF at 58 Mosley Street. London leasing. 130 UK economy expands + 126 by 0.9% in Q2, as GDP 119.5 finally edges above 120.7 122 118.5 its pre-crisis peak. 118 BoE Governor Mark Carney gives A record 345,000 jobs were added 114 a strong indication that interest in the three months to April, Service sector confidence rates will rise before the end of 110 bringing the UK unemployment rises to its highest level the year, ahead of market rate down to 6.6%. 106 since June 1998. expectations. Economic 102 Sentiment 98 - 94 102 102.7 102 90 UK Sentiment Eurozone Sentiment 100 = Long term average Economic Sentiment Source: European Commission 5 CoStar Group Major Events July August September £ £ £ £ £ £ £ £ NFU Mutual buys Capital & Regional Manchester's Chancery buys 63% stake in Place for £57m at a Aviva and Karoo's The 5.1% yield, as investor interest in the regions Mall Fund for £213m. SWIP acquires BT's Magna starts squeezing yields. Taiwanese investor Cathay Life makes its UK debut Park distribution centre JP Morgan prepares to sell with the £320m from receivers for £45.4m at Goldman Sachs, GoldenTree M&G acquires Two Riverside South in acquisition of Woolgate a 5.1% yield. and Avenue acquire portfolio of Snowhill in Birmingham Docklands, once Blackstone acquires 125 Exchange in the City of 144 nationwide hotels leased for £140m at a 6% yield, Investment earmarked to become its Old Broad Street in the City London. European HQ and one of of London for £320m at a to Travelodge for an estimated in a further sign of London's largest schemes. 4.9% yield. £520m in an all cash purchase. investor interest in the UK's regional cities. CTP and Development Philip Morris Ltd takes final Securities begin work on 3 34,000 SF at 10 St Paul's Place, Sheffield's Hammersmith Grove, pushing first spec office since the office vacancy in Amazon signs for a 1m SF recession. Havas leases 164,000 SF at King's Cross in In the largest office letting in Hammersmith down to a mega-shed at the Royal London's largest office Scotland, Abstract signs 10-year low of 4.1%. Oak Distribution Centre in Norwegian firm Aker ASA to Daventry, paying £4.50/SF.