Who Wants a Coup? A List Experiment in Turkey Sharan Grewal∗ October 3, 2018 Abstract The failed coup in Turkey in 2016 highlighted the importance of public support for a military takeover. Why do some coups enjoy public support while others do not? This paper presents a new theory for when the opposition will support a coup, hypothesizing that they should oppose a coup if they believe that: (1) they can win in elections, (2) the military will not appoint the opposition to power, or (3) a coup will increase sympathy for the ruling party. This paper then tests this theory through an original list experiment of 820 Turkish citizens gauging their support for the 2016 coup attempt. Results suggest that Turkish citizens may have opposed the coup as a result of these strategic, political considerations about the best pathways to power. ∗Postdoctoral fellow at Brookings (
[email protected]). Survey approved through Princeton IRB #7855. I thank Kim Guiler and Matthew Cebul for jointly fielding the survey in Turkey and for helpful feedback. I also thank Holger Albrecht, Risa Brooks, Erica de Bruin, Ekrem Karako¸c,Kemal Kiri¸sci and participants at the 2018 APSA conference for useful questions and comments. 1 Introduction On July 15, 2016, Turkish troops descended upon strategic locations in Istanbul and Ankara in an attempt to stage a coup. The coup-plotters, self-styled the Peace at Home Council, had hoped to continue a trend of the military ousting polarizing presidents who in their mind had violated core tenets of secularism and democracy, as in 1960, 1971, 1980, and 1997.