MARKET OUTLOOK CRANBOURNE EAST Located in ’s south-eastern corridor is Cranbourne East, a growing and maturing suburb offering local amenity, infrastructure investment and employment opportunities.

01 Walkability & Accessibility 03 Infrastructure & Employment 04 Population & Demographics 05 Residential Market 06 Rental Market

Prepared exclusively for Country Garden Australia September 2018 WALKABILITY & ACCESSIBILITY

Cranbourne East is located 52 kilometres southeast of Melbourne’s CBD within the City of Casey Local Government Area. With a combination of schools, medical facilities, parks and recreational spaces, as well as proximity to shopping centres, the suburb offers a family-friendly environment.

TRANSPORT Cranbourne East is well serviced by Melbourne’s road network. The CBD is a 50 minute off-peak drive via the Monash Freeway, which is accessible via the South Gippsland Highway from Cranbourne East. Bus and train 1 networks also service the suburb, providing various transport options for residents. Shared paths for those 2 on foot and by bike connect schools, leisure centres and parks throughout the local area.

Bus routes: 898, 795, 796, 798, 897 –– Linking neighbouring suburbs, parks, shopping and leisure centres. Train line: Cranbourne railway line –– Provides a 60-70 minute journey to Flinders Street Station from Cranbourne Railway Station. 6 NEIGHBOURHOOD AMENITIES Retail: Cranbourne Park Shopping Centre provides a 7 Coles, IGA and Aldi. Community & Leisure: Casey Fields, Cranbourne 9 8 Library, Casey Stadium and The Shed Skatepark. Schools, Education and Child Care: Eclipse Early E ROAD NAM Childcare, One Early Education Childcare, St. Agatha’s Catholic Primary School, Cranbourne East Primary/ Secondary Schools, Cranbourne Secondary College, Casey Grammar School and Chisholm TAFE. 10 Medical: Cranbourne Care Centre (Monash Health), Cranbourne Park Family Care Clinic, Amstel Medical Centre. Parks and Open Spaces: Approximately 80ha of

open space including Cranbourne Racecourse, Royal South Gippsland Highway Botanic Gardens (Cranbourne), Ray Perry Park and Grow Estate Reserve.

FUTURE AMENITIES 1. Melbourne CBD (50 min drive) Cranbourne East & Clyde Railway Stations: $3m 2. Dandenong has been allocated by the State Government to acquire 3. Dandenong Ranges land for a future railway station in Cranbourne East. The 4. Narre Warren Cranbourne/Pakenham line is also forecast to increase its peak capacity by 45% when the is 5. Cranbourne Railway Station operational. 6. St Agatha's Primary School Schools and Child Care Centres: Approximately $40m 7. Cranbourne Centre (Monash Health) investment to construct six primary, secondary and child 8. Cranbourne Racecourse & Recreation Reserve care facilities in Cranbourne East. 9. Royal Botanic Gardens Cranbourne (10 min bus ride)

2 Market Outlook Cranbourne East Cranbourne East is currently a 60-70 minute commute by rail from the CBD. Once the Metro Tunnel is also complete, it is anticipated that travel times will reduce by a further 15 minutes to Parkville and 25 minutes to St Kilda Road.

By Bus Cranbourne Park Shopping Centre 6 minutes

Cranbourne Care Centre (Monash Health) 7 minutes

Royal Botanic Gardens (Cranbourne) 10 minutes

Casey Grammar School 10 minutes

Casey Fields 3 12 minutes By Train Dandenong Station 13 minutes

Flinders Street Station 60-70 minutes 4 Note: Estimated times are from Cranbourne Railway Station Source: Public Transport

5 Cranbourne Line Narre Warren14 - Cranbourne Road 13 12 22 11 15

16 17 21 20 18 19

Berwick-Cranbourne Road 25

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10. Cranbourne Training Complex 18. Cranbourne Library 11. Cranbourne Park Family Care Clinic 19. Casey Recreation & Aquatic Centre (RACE) 12. Cranbourne Park Shopping Centre 20. The Shed Skate Park 13. Cranbourne Secondary College 21. Cranbourne East Railway Station (Future) 14. Hunt Club Village Shopping Centre 22. Cranbourne East Primary & Secondary School 15. Casey Grammar School 23. Proposed Sports and Recreation Centre 16. Chisholm Institute (TAFE) 24. Grow Estate Reserve 17. Casey Stadium 25. Casey Fields Athletics Centre (12 min by bus)

Prepared exclusively for Country Garden Australia 3 Over $250 million in infrastructure INFRASTRUCTURE projects is in the pipeline for Cranbourne East and the surrounding & EMPLOYMENT area, to be delivered by 2021.

INFRASTRUCTURE EMPLOYMENT Cranbourne East and its surrounding suburbs are Cranbourne East residents have convenient access set to benefit from planned infrastructure projects. to the Cranbourne Activity Centre which provides These upgrades and additions are indicative of a focus for amenity, retail and businesses. This the significant investment being injected into the encourages employment and growth in the region. local community. According to Plan Melbourne, the City of Casey has also 01 CASEY HOSPITAL EXPANSION proposed two additional Major Activity Centres. One of $135m – Est. Comp: 2019 these Centres is in Clyde and the other in Clyde North. Further employment opportunities will be fostered Currently under construction is the expansion through these centres, further benefitting residents of Casey Hospital located in Berwick. The improvements locally, including those in Cranbourne East. include the construction of a new seven-storey building to contain an additional 130 beds, as well Based on employment projections from Plan Melbourne, as several operating theatres. The building will also it is anticipated that the Southern Region of Melbourne, feature a training space which will be operated by which includes Cranbourne East, will see 23% growth Monash University. in the number of workers by 2031. White-collar jobs such as those in community and business services 02 THOMPSONS ROAD UPGRADE are anticipated to be the predominant industries for $72m – Est. Comp: 2019 these additional 85,300 workers. This follows the Upgrades include expanding roads to provide 5-percentage point increase in white-collar employed an additional lane in each direction along several main residents and equivalent decrease of blue-collar roads, including Frankston-Dandenong Road, Marriott worker proportions in Cranbourne East over the decade Boulevard, Narre Warren-Cranbourne Road and Berwick- 2006-2016, with white-collar workers making up a 62% Cranbourne Road. Some 10 kilometres of shared-use share of all employed residents in 2016 and blue-collar space will also be built. workers 38%. 03 CASEY FIELDS FOOTBALL CENTRE $50m – Est. Comp: 2021 WHITE COLLAR & BLUE COLLAR EMPLOYED RESIDENTS Located in Cranbourne East, the proposed Cranbourne East state-of-the-art Football Centre will feature several training grounds in both artificial and natural surfaces. White collar The project will be staged, with the first stage for the community facility, while the second stage will be 61% 62% specifically for a potential A-league club. Construction 57% is estimated to complete in 2021.

FORECAST EMPLOYMENT Southern Region to 2031

2006 2011 2016 2018 376,700 Blue collar 43% 39% 38% 2031 462,000 +23% 2006 2011 2016

Source: Plan Melbourne, Urbis Source: ABS, Urbis

4 Market Outlook Cranbourne East POPULATION & Cranbourne East is forecast to see 15,350 additional residents by 2031, reflecting DEMOGRAPHICS total growth of 71%.

POPULATION POPULATION FORECAST Cranbourne East Cranbourne East is relatively new as a suburb but is growing 37,100 and maturing, with an estimated 32,700 30,200 resident population of 21,750 in 2017 2017. Six years prior, the suburb 21,750 had a population of only 8,100. 17,000 Therefore, over this period the area grew 2.7 times in size. 8,100 PROJECTED POPULATION Looking forward, Cranbourne East Population Resident is anticipated to continue growing on the back of state planning policy 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 that focuses on growth areas. While Source: ABS, SAFi, Urbis the rate of growth will temper from the previous six years, which saw 13,650 people added to the suburb, PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH Cranbourne East is estimated to add Cranbourne East even more residents by 2031. Some 15,350 more people are estimated to call the area home within 13 years, 2017 21,750 2031 37,100 (+71%) with the suburb reaching an eventual population of 37,100. Source: ABS, SAFi, Urbis

WHO LIVES IN CRANBOURNE EAST? DEMOGRAPHICS 2016 Cranbourne East has drawn more younger people, families with children, and home purchasers than the Greater Melbourne Annual Household Average Aged 25-39 average. This is reflected in the Income Household Size demographic statistics, that also indicate the high proportion of 29% $90,150 3.2 houses, four bedroom dwellings, 24% $95,850 2.7 and higher average household size. Some 42% of residents in Cranbourne East were also found to be born overseas, which is a higher Purchasing Typical number proportion than that for Greater Live in a House Melbourne overall. their Home of Beds A function of a younger demographic 87% 62% 4 is a lower than average annual 68% 39% 3 household income. Cranbourne East registered $90,150, compared with $95,850 for Greater Melbourne. Cranbourne East However, Cranbourne East has Greater Melbourne experienced a 15% increase in Annual Families with Overseas Born Household Income since 2011, which Children was higher than Greater Melbourne's growth. This demonstrates a 71% 42% progressive shift to residents having 64% 36% access to higher income jobs.

Source: ABS, Urbis

Prepared exclusively for Country Garden Australia 5 Cranbourne East has showcased strong RESIDENTIAL median price growth for both houses and vacant land lots, increasing 19% MARKET and 40% over the year respectively.

MEDIAN PRICE MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE – CRANBOURNE EAST Year to March 2018 In the year to March 2018, houses in Cranbourne East achieved a median $588,000 $560,000 price of $560,000. This median price $517,500 makes Cranbourne East $170,000, or 23%, more affordable than Greater Melbourne overall. Cranbourne East’s relative affordability also applies to the surrounding area. Compared with the City of Casey, its 3-Bed 4-Bed All Houses median price is 4% lower. Source: APM Price Finder, Urbis

In the same period, vacant land sales MEDIAN PRICE GROWTH – HOUSES AND VACANT LAND achieved a median price of $335,000 Year to March 2018 in Cranbourne East. This represents a 12-Month 12-Month premium of $59,000 compared with House Vacant Land Greater Melbourne, which recorded a Houses Vacant Land Growth Growth median land price of $276,000. The CRANBOURNE premium for vacant land reflects the EAST $560,000 $335,000 +19% +40% consistent demand and more established nature of infrastructure in Cranbourne CITY OF CASEY $583,650 $308,000 +19% +25% East compared to newer growth areas, while the suburb remains affordable in a GREATER city housing context. MELBOURNE $730,000 $276,000 +12% +19% PRICE GROWTH Source: APM Price Finder, Urbis Cranbourne East experienced MEDIAN PRICE GROWTH – SURROUNDING SUBURBS significant median price growth for Houses to March 2018 both houses and vacant land in the twelve months to March 2018. Median house price Cranbourne North During this period there was a 19% Median land price increase for the median house price, while 10-Yr Growth (p.a.) $549k the median land price saw higher growth 9.3% of 40%. This price growth for Cranbourne Cranbourne West East outpaced that of the City of Casey $523k Clyde North and Greater Melbourne, suggesting strong 8.3% demand conditions for the area. $470k Among surrounding suburbs, Cranbourne 2.8% East achieved the highest median price growth for houses over the decade. The median house price grew 12.7% per Clyde annum, outperforming nearby suburbs Cranbourne which achieved growth rates between $525k $526k 0.5% and 9.3% per annum. 8.6% 0.5% Overall, the strong short and long-term performance of median house and land Junction Village Cranbourne East prices in Cranbourne East emphasises $443k $560k the suburb’s ongoing popularity with 12.7% purchasers. 5.5%

Source: APM Price Finder, Urbis

6 Market Outlook Cranbourne East Over the decade, median rent for three RENTAL and four-bedroom houses in Cranbourne East grew by 4.1% and 3.7% per annum MARKET respectively, out-pacing Greater Melbourne.

MEDIAN WEEKLY RENT MEDIAN WEEKLY RENT Cranbourne East* In the year to March 2018, houses in the Cranbourne East catchment 3,000 Contract Volume $380 $400 captured a median weekly rent of Median Rent $380. Specifically, four-bedroom 2,500 $350 $300 houses recorded median rent of 2,000 $250 $410, while three-bedroom 1,500 $200 houses registered $360. 1,000 $150 $100 Median Rent 500 $50 RENTAL GROWTH Contracts Rental 0 $0 Cranbourne East offers residents 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 proximity to amenity, education Rolling Annual (Mar Qtr) and employment, which are key drivers of rents across all Source: Department of Human Services, Urbis residential properties. This is relevant to investors who are MEDIAN WEEKLY RENT – RENTAL GROWTH – seeking an income from their HOUSES HOUSES investment property. Year to March 2018 10-Yr Growth (p.a.) Over the last ten years, the Cranbourne East catchment has Cranbourne East* Cranbourne East* Greater Melbourne experienced steady growth in median weekly rent for houses, 3 Bed 3 Bed recording an average annual $360 4.1% 4.1% increase of 4.3% to March 2018. Specifically, three and 4 Bed 4 Bed four-bedroom houses recorded annual growth rates of 4.1% and $410 3.7% 2.9% 3.7% for median weekly rent respectively. Rental growth in the Cranbourne East catchment either All Houses All Houses outperformed or grew evenly with $380 4.3% 4.0% Greater Melbourne, demonstrating the suburb’s competitive Source: Department of Human Services, Urbis Source: Department of Human Services, Urbis rental market.

RENTAL YIELD & VACANCY RESIDENTIAL VACANCY RATE INDICATIVE GROSS RENTAL Postcode 3977 – Cranbourne East YIELD – HOUSES Despite a lower median weekly rent Year to March 2018 for Cranbourne East than Greater Melbourne across houses, the indicative gross rental yield remains Cranbourne East higher in Cranbourne East at 3.7%. 3.7% Demand in the rental market is also 3.3% reflected by a tightening vacancy 2.4% rate over the previous five years, which saw a decrease to 2.4% as at City of Casey January 2018. 3.5%

*Defined by the Department of Human Services, Cranbourne East is included in a catchment with Blind Bight, Cannons Creek, Clyde, Clyde North, Greater Melbourne Cranbourne, Cranbourne North, Cranbourne South, Jan 2013 Jan 2018 3.0% Cranbourne West, Dalmore, Devon Meadows, Junction Village, Pearcedale, Tooradin and Warneet. Source: SQM Research, Urbis Source: APM Price Finder, Urbis

Prepared exclusively for Country Garden Australia 7 This publication is prepared on the instruction of Country Garden Australia and is not suitable for use other than by the party to whom it is addressed. As the publication involves projections and assumptions it can be affected by a number of unforeseen variables. The forecasts and assumptions are a prediction and whilst Urbis has made every effort to ensure that the forecasts and assumptions are based on reasonable information, they may be affected by assumptions that do not necessarily eventuate or by known, or unknown, risks and uncertainties. It should be noted that past performance is not necessarily a reliable indication of future performance. The information in the publication does not represent financial advice and should not be regarded as such. It has been prepared without taking into account your financial situation or investment objectives. You should consider the appropriateness of the information in regards to your current financial situation or needs. Urbis accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. The information is subject to change without notice and Urbis is under no obligation to update the information or correct any assumptions which may change over time. This study has been prepared for the sole use of Country Garden Australia and is not to be relied upon by any third party without specific approval from Urbis. This publication is subject to copyright. Except as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of it may, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be reproduced, stored in a retrievals system or transmitted without prior written permission. Enquires should be addressed to the publishers. PER1148/M