Excellent Hachileka
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UNDP - Mozambique An Appraisal of community vulnerability and adaptation to Climate Change in Mapai, Chicualacuala District, using the CRiSTAL Tool Draft Assessment Report by Excellent Hachileka 27th September 2009 1 Table of Contents Acronyms..................................................................................................................................................4 Executive summary.................................................................................................................................5 1. Background of the research area ...............................................................................................7 1.1 Geographic information ............................................................................................. 7 1.2 Livelihoods ................................................................................................................. 7 2. Methodology................................................................................................................................9 4. General Climate information for Mozambique......................................................................12 5. Scientific observations of Climate variability and change in Mozambique........................13 5.1 Temperature ...........................................................................................................13 5.2 Precipitation ...........................................................................................................14 6. GCM Projections of Future Climate for Mozambique..........................................................14 6.1 Temperature ............................................................................................................. 14 6.2 Precipitation ............................................................................................................. 15 7. Analysis of current climate change vulnerability ...................................................................15 7.1 Exposure to climate Hazards.................................................................................... 15 7.2 Sensitivity to climate hazards...................................................................................19 7.2.1 Current Impacts on livelihood resources...............................................................21 7.2.2 Implications of projected climate change for rural livelihoods in Mapai ................24 7.3 Adaptive capacity ....................................................................................................27 7.3.1 Underlying drivers of vulnerability in Mapai.......................................................... 27 7.3.2 Current coping strategies ...................................................................................... 29 7.3.3 Suggested adaptation activities for current and future climate change impacts...... 35 7.3.4 Enabling conditions and constraints to implementing suggested strategies .......... 36 8. Conclusions and Recommendations.......................................................................................39 9. Further research suggested ......................................................................................................45 10. References..................................................................................................................................46 11. Annexes.....................................................................................................................................47 Annex 1: Field Guide 1: Seasonal Calendar................................................................ 47 Annex 2: Field Guide 2: Vulnerability Matrix ................................................................ 49 2 List of Figures Figure 1: Location of Mapai in Chicualacuala District ………………………………………..8 Figure 2: The Research Team analysising data using CRSTAL in Mapai ......................................12 Figure 3: The road and railway line at Mapai Administrative Post ..................................................21 Figure 4: Chickens and Goats are common livestock in Mapai ……………………………….22 Figure 5: Old and young women during consultations on coping strategies in Mapai ……........23 Figure 6: Water scarcity is a major problem in Mapai ........................................................................24 List of Tables Table 1: Climate Change Vulnerability Framework …………………………………………...10 Table 2: Summary Descriptions of Tools used in the Field Work …………………………….11 Table 3: Field Work Research Team …………………………………………………………11 Table 4: Seasonal Calendar for Mapai ………………………………………………………...16 Table 5: Main Hazards Affecting Livelihoods in Mapai ………………………………………17 Table 6: Impacts of Hazards in Mapai ………………………………………………………..18 Table 7: Key Livelihood Resources impacted by Climate hazards ……………………………20 Table 8: Current Strategies to Cope with the Main Hazards ………………………………….29 Table 9: Table 9: SWOT Analysis of Current Coping strategies…………………………….....29 Table 10: Enabling conditions and constraints at the local level in Mapai …………………….36 3 Acronyms CRiSTAL Community-based Risk Screening Tool – Adaptation and Livelihoods CVCA Climate Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis EbA Ecosystems-based Adaptation ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation FAO Food and Agriculture Organization INGC National Disaster Management Institute INAM National Meteorology Institute IISD International Institute for Sustainable Development IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature ITCZ Inter-tropical Convergence Zone MICOA The main government partners are: the Ministry for Coordination of Environmental Affairs MINAG Ministry of Agriculture SEI Stockholm Environment Institute UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNEP United Nations Environment Programme WFP World Food Programme 4 Executive summary The impact of climate change in Chicualacuala District is a reality, in terms of observed reductions and uneven distribution of rainfall, increasing frequency and intensity of droughts, occasional flooding, increasing temperatures, desertification and strong winds causing soil erosion and high evaporation. This is already impacting on the viability of the major community livelihoods in the district through reduced water availability for crop production which is mainly rain-fed, water for livestock watering and for domestic use. Other impacts include reduced availability and quality of pasture for livestock and a general increase in ecosystem degradation leading to reduced forest products and other ecosystem goods and services. The observed trends are projected to increase. For example, the mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 1.0 to 2.8°C by the 2060s, and 1.4 to 4.6°C by the 2090s. Rainfall projections have not been very conclusive for southern Mozambique, though the regional projections indicate decreases of rainfall in the semi-dry to dry regions of southern Africa. The overall impact of less rainfall and extreme heat will be more adverse effects on all economic sectors of Chicuaacuala district, including crop production, livestock, food security, access to safe water, availability of forest products and on health. This coupled with underlying causes of vulnerability (such as a combination of social, economic and environmental factors, inadequate resources, technology and infrastructure, as well as weak representation of government institutions and civil society in Chicualacuala district) will make the community less able to adapt to the projected climate change impacts. The community in the district recognizes and understands the importance of changing and adapting their livelihoods to changing environmental conditions and has been doing so for centuries through technologies embedded into traditional social structures and resource management systems. However, the magnitude and rate of current climate change, combined with additional environmental, social and economic issues, are making many of the traditional coping strategies ineffective and unsustainable, leading to increased environmental degradation and food insecurity, and forcing communities to rapidly find new livelihood strategies. Communities have plenty of ideas on how to prepare to future climate change and a willingness to get out of poverty and take their future into their own hands. However, their ability to adapt is constrained by many factors, including increasing scarcity in key resources, limited access to information (including weather, climate change, market, pest and disease outbreak information); limited education, skills and access to financial services and markets required to diversify their livelihood activities; and social and gender inequalities and marginalization, which reduce the voice and adaptive capacity of the most vulnerable. Enhancing the adaptive capacity of these communities will require community-based and community-led interventions, but will also require tailored support from all stakeholders. To effectively do this, the district must integrate climate adaptation into mainstream development planning. 5 1. Introduction The Joint Programme on Environmental Mainstreaming and Adaptation to Climate Change in Mozambique aims to support the Government of Mozambique’s efforts towards sustainable development through the implementation of two components: Environmental Mainstreaming and Adaptation to Climate Change. The Environmental Mainstreaming component composes of activities aiming at the sensitization and empowerment of government,