Excellent Hachileka

An Appraisal of community vulnerability and adaptation to Climate Change in Mapai, Chicualacuala District, using the CRiSTAL Tool

Draft Assessment Report

Excellent Hachileka

27th September 2009

Table of Contents Acronyms...... 4

Executive summary...... 5

1. Background of the research area ...... 7 1.1 Geographic information ...... 7 1.2 Livelihoods ...... 7 2. Methodology...... 9

4. General Climate information for Mozambique...... 12

5. Scientific observations of Climate variability and change in Mozambique...... 13 5.1 Temperature ...... 13 5.2 Precipitation ...... 14 6. GCM Projections of Future Climate for Mozambique...... 14 6.1 Temperature ...... 14 6.2 Precipitation ...... 15 7. Analysis of current climate change vulnerability ...... 15 7.1 Exposure to climate Hazards...... 15 7.2 Sensitivity to climate hazards...... 19 7.2.1 Current Impacts on livelihood resources...... 21 7.2.2 Implications of projected climate change for rural livelihoods in Mapai ...... 24 7.3 Adaptive capacity ...... 27 7.3.1 Underlying drivers of vulnerability in Mapai...... 27 7.3.2 Current coping strategies ...... 29 7.3.3 Suggested adaptation activities for current and future climate change impacts...... 35 7.3.4 Enabling conditions and constraints to implementing suggested strategies ...... 36 8. Conclusions and Recommendations...... 39

9. Further research suggested ...... 45

10. References...... 46

11. Annexes...... 47 Annex 1: Field Guide 1: Seasonal Calendar...... 47 Annex 2: Field Guide 2: Vulnerability Matrix ...... 49

List of Figures

Figure 1: Location of Mapai in Chicualacuala District ………………………………………..8

Figure 2: The Research Team analysising data using CRSTAL in Mapai ...... 12

Figure 3: The road and railway line at Mapai Administrative Post ...... 21

Figure 4: Chickens and Goats are common livestock in Mapai ……………………………….22

Figure 5: Old and young women during consultations on coping strategies in Mapai ……...... 23

Figure 6: Water scarcity is a major problem in Mapai ...... 24

List of Tables

Table 1: Climate Change Vulnerability Framework …………………………………………...10 Table 2: Summary Descriptions of Tools used in the Field Work …………………………….11 Table 3: Field Work Research Team …………………………………………………………11 Table 4: Seasonal Calendar for Mapai ………………………………………………………...16 Table 5: Main Hazards Affecting Livelihoods in Mapai ………………………………………17 Table 6: Impacts of Hazards in Mapai ………………………………………………………..18 Table 7: Key Livelihood Resources impacted by Climate hazards ……………………………20 Table 8: Current Strategies to Cope with the Main Hazards ………………………………….29 Table 9: Table 9: SWOT Analysis of Current Coping strategies…………………………….....29 Table 10: Enabling conditions and constraints at the local level in Mapai …………………….36

Acronyms CRiSTAL Community-based Risk Screening Tool – Adaptation and Livelihoods CVCA Climate Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis EbA Ecosystems-based Adaptation ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation FAO Food and Agriculture Organization INGC National Disaster Management Institute INAM National Meteorology Institute IISD International Institute for Sustainable Development IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature ITCZ Inter-tropical Convergence Zone MICOA The main government partners are: the Ministry for Coordination of Environmental Affairs MINAG Ministry of Agriculture SEI Stockholm Environment Institute UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNEP United Nations Environment Programme WFP World Food Programme

Executive summary The impact of climate change in Chicualacuala District is a reality, in terms of observed reductions and uneven distribution of rainfall, increasing frequency and intensity of droughts, occasional flooding, increasing temperatures, desertification and strong winds causing soil erosion and high evaporation. This is already impacting on the viability of the major community livelihoods in the district through reduced water availability for crop production which is mainly rain-fed, water for livestock watering and for domestic use. Other impacts include reduced availability and quality of pasture for livestock and a general increase in ecosystem degradation leading to reduced forest products and other ecosystem goods and services.

The observed trends are projected to increase. For example, the mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 1.0 to 2.8°C by the 2060s, and 1.4 to 4.6°C by the 2090s. Rainfall projections have not been very conclusive for southern Mozambique, though the regional projections indicate decreases of rainfall in the semi-dry to dry regions of southern Africa.

The overall impact of less rainfall and extreme heat will be more adverse effects on all economic sectors of Chicuaacuala district, including crop production, livestock, food security, access to safe water, availability of forest products and on health. This coupled with underlying causes of vulnerability (such as a combination of social, economic and environmental factors, inadequate resources, technology and infrastructure, as well as weak representation of government institutions and civil society in Chicualacuala district) will make the community less able to adapt to the projected climate change impacts.

The community in the district recognizes and understands the importance of changing and adapting their livelihoods to changing environmental conditions and has been doing so for centuries through technologies embedded into traditional social structures and resource management systems.

However, the magnitude and rate of current climate change, combined with additional environmental, social and economic issues, are making many of the traditional coping strategies ineffective and unsustainable, leading to increased environmental degradation and food insecurity, and forcing communities to rapidly find new livelihood strategies. Communities have plenty of ideas on how to prepare to future climate change and a willingness to get out of poverty and take their future into their own hands. However, their ability to adapt is constrained by many factors, including increasing scarcity in key resources, limited access to information (including weather, climate change, market, pest and disease outbreak information); limited education, skills and access to financial services and markets required to diversify their livelihood activities; and social and gender inequalities and marginalization, which reduce the voice and adaptive capacity of the most vulnerable.

Enhancing the adaptive capacity of these communities will require community-based and community-led interventions, but will also require tailored support from all stakeholders. To effectively do this, the district must integrate climate adaptation into mainstream development planning.

1. Introduction

The Joint Programme on Environmental Mainstreaming and Adaptation to Climate Change in Mozambique aims to support the Government of Mozambique’s efforts towards sustainable development through the implementation of two components: Environmental Mainstreaming and Adaptation to Climate Change.

The Environmental Mainstreaming component composes of activities aiming at the sensitization and empowerment of government, civil society, communities and other stakeholders on environmental and climate change issues, strengthening government capacity to implement environmental policies, and mainstreaming climate proofing methodology into government development plans at national, provincial and district levels.

The second component, dealing with Adaptation to Climate Change, focuses on the building of resilience to climate change in selected communities in Chicualacuala district. This is done through the enhancement of community climate change coping mechanisms (in the areas of conservation agriculture, agro-forestry, forest resource management and water resources management) and the diversification of community livelihood options.

The implementation of the Joint Programme involves six UN Agencies, namely FAO, UNEP, UN- HABITAT, UNIDO, UNDP, and WFP. The main government partners are: the Ministry for Coordination of Environmental Affairs (MICOA), Ministry of Agriculture (MINAG), National Disaster Management Institute (INGC), National Meteorology Institute (INAM), and the Governments of the Gaza Province and Chicualacuala District.

The purpose of this appraisal is to apply the CRISTAL methodology in one of the Joint Programme’s project sites in Mapai in order to identify vulnerabilities of the community to impacts of climate change and to understand their current coping strategies, the resources important to coping and the constraints to coping. The results of this exercise will contribute to strengthening the Government’s capacity to mainstream adequate responses to the impacts of climate change in their development plans. Policy recommendations derived from the appraisal will directly contribute to second component of the Joint Programme in the elaboration of district development plans.

For the purposes of this appraisal, community-level vulnerability is understood as a function of exposure to (climate and non-climate) hazards, sensitivity to hazards, and adaptive capacity. Information on vulnerability is disaggregated according to location, gender and age in order to better understand who exactly in these communities is vulnerable to what, and get a sense of how livelihood stresses are being observed and experienced by different social groups. A special focus is given to the underlying drivers of vulnerability. The implications of future climate change on the three pillars of subsistence farmer livelihoods (agriculture, natural resources and people) are also assessed.

The process for undertaking this research involved training in the use of CRiSTAL for the research team members in Xai Xai and field work in Mapai involving staff from Gaza Provincial Headquarters Planning Unit, Chicualacuala District, UNDP and UNEP consultants.

1. Background of the research area

1.1 Geographic information

Chicualacuala district is located in the northern part of Gaza province, south of Mozambique. The district borders in the South the districts of Mabalane and Massingir, in the East the district of Chigubo, in the North the district of Massangena and in the West the Republic of Zimbabwe and South Africa (Figure 1). The district covers an area of 18.115km2 and according to the last population census, about 38.780 inhabitants leave in the district (Ministério da Administração Estatal, 2005). The population density in the district is very low (2.3 inhabitants per km2) occupying only 24% of the total district area. The district has three administrative Posts, namely Eduardo Mondlane, Pafúri and Mapai which is located about 100km from Chicualacuala district administrative post.

In the border strip the predominant soils are sandy, characteristic of sandy coverage of variable thickness on the deposits of Mananga of red and brown soils, and of gray soils (sandy, clay and hydromorphic) of Guijá. Along the plains of the River Limpopo, there are alluvial soils, which are fertile for agriculture. The inland zone is characterized by the occurrence of thin soils with sandy characteristic of the coverage of variable thickness. These conditions are aggravated by the great irregularity of rainfall during the rainy season and therefore the occurrence of frequent dry periods during the growth of crops (Ministério da Administração Estatal, 2005).

The main hydrological resources are the Limpopo basin and the rivers Nuanetzi, Chefu, Munene and Singuedzi (Ministério da Administração Estatal, 2005).

1.2 Livelihoods

Chicualacuala district is one of the poorest in the south of Mozambique, with about 90 percent of its population living in poverty, and not being able to meet their basic food and non-food needs. The Majority of the population in the district relies on natural resources for their subsistence (Ministério da Administração Estatal, 2005). The rural population is dispersed (2.3 inhabitants per km2) and lives in nine localities spread over the three main Administrative Posts, namely Eduardo Mondlane, Mapai and Pafúri (FAO 2009).

The main sources of income in Chicualcuala district include agriculture involving both crop and livestock production, which is basically, managed using traditional/cultural practices, sale of forest products such as fruits, vegetables, firewood, charcoal, and petty trading. Majority of livelihoods in the district are climate dependant. The climate in the area is arid to semi-arid not suitable for most crops, which aggravates the living conditions in the district.

The main crops grown are maize, sorghum, pearl millet and beans. During the dry season (March to October) communities rely on a range of indigenous plants and tree fruits (such as leaves of Momordica balsamica - cacana, roots and fruits of Boscia albitrunca - xukutsi, fruits of Strychnos sp. – massala/macuacua, etc.) as supplementary food sources (Ministério da Administração Estatal, 2005).

Figure 1: Location of Mapai in Chicualacuala District

Source: World Food Programme

Livestock keepers hold small to medium herds of cattle, about 5 to 300 herds per family. Traditional practices encourage keeping large herds of livestock as a sign of wealth and power. Other livestock include pigs and goats though in smaller numbers than cattle. The district has in the past experienced outbreaks of foot and mouth disease.

Logging, harvesting of wood for poles, firewood and charcoal are the main non-agricultural income generating activities. Major indigenous tree species are Afzelia quanzensis, Colophospermum mopane, Combretum imberbe, Acacia sp. and Faidherbia albida. Trading non-wood products, harvesting grass used for roof thatching and basket making are an important source of income for 63% of the families. Due to the short duration of the agricultural growing season, it is imperative to introduce short-cycle varieties and techniques for moisture and agriculture conservation, in order to enhance household food security for the rural population.

2. Methodology

In this research, climate-related vulnerability is assessed in terms of climate change exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Exposure is defined by the magnitude, character and rate of climate change in the research area. Sensitivity to climate change is the degree to which a community is adversely or beneficially affected by climate-related stimuli. It mainly depends on the main livelihood activities of the community (including its dependence on livestock and rain- fed agriculture), its key livelihood resources, and the impacts of climate hazards on these key resources. The adaptive capacity of a community is its ability to adjust to climate change, to moderate or cope with the impacts, and to take advantages of the opportunities. Key questions to assess climate-related vulnerability are indicated in the framework presented in Table 1.

Data collection methods included a combination of:

• Consultations with community groups, as well as with governmental and non- governmental organizations working in the district; • Gathering of primary ‘indicator’ data (related to population, livelihoods, location and well-being); • Review of observed climate data and national predictions; and • Review of climate and livelihoods related documents.

The research involved three main stages:

a. A training workshop in Xai Xia offered by IUCN to introduce the research team to the topic of climate change vulnerability and adaptation, and how to integrate it into development interventions through the application of two tools: • Seasonal Calendar • Community-Based Risk Screening Tool – Adaptation and Livelihoods (CRiSTAL) developed by IISD, IUCN, Inter-cooperation, and the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI)

Table 1: Climate Change Vulnerability Framework

Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity 1. Which climate-related 1. How sensitive are 1. Experiences with risk hazards affect livelihood activities to management and livelihoods? climate change? coping 2. Changes in timing, Indicators of sensitivity - What activities are frequency, and intensity include: currently undertaken to of climate hazards? - Dependence on livestock cope with climate 3. How do non-climate - Livestock type (are they hazards? hazards interact with resilient species?) - Are these strategies climate-related hazards? - Dependence on rain-fed effective and sustainable 3. What is the ‘science’ agriculture with future climate saying about recent - Crop mix/types (are they change? climate trends? resilient species?) 2. Reactions to scenarios? Projections? - Environmental conditions - Which activities could be - How does it compare to (type, level, rate of undertaken to prepare community degradation) for anticipated climate observations? 2. Which livelihood resources change impacts? are most affected by - Which resources are key? climate hazards? 3. Enabling conditions and barriers to adapting - CVCA questions at local, district and zonal levels - Determinants of adaptive capacity include: economic wealth, literacy rate, access to information, markets, technology, services, and formal and informal assistance, and institutional capacity Disaggregated by gender and age

b. Five days of field work in Mapai for community consultations (27th to 31st July 2009). Research areas included four groups of young women, young men, older women and older men and discussed agriculture (crops and livestock production) as the main livelihood system. The tools used during the field work included: seasonal calendars, vulnerability matrices, and CRiSTAL. Summary descriptions of these tools are provided. The field research team included staff from Chicualacuala District, Gaza Provincial Planning Unit, FAO project, UNDP and UNEP national consultants and a regional consultant from IUCN as shown in the Table below. The reporting template used by research teams to enter the information collected during community consultations is included in the Annexes.

c. Analysis of collected data and writing of the assessment report and policy brief (2 to 21st August 2009).

Descriptions of the tools used during the field work are provided in Table 2 below. The seasonal calendar and vulnerability matrix are community-based participatory tools, which were

10 used with four community groups (old men, young men, old women and young women) in Mapai. CRiSTAL is a computer-based tool, which was used by the research teams (Table 3) to analyze the data collected from community consultations. The CVCA (including its guiding questions at household/individual, community/local government and national levels, as well as its field guides on community-based participatory tools) were used to develop our field methodology and consultation questions, and to analyze the collected field data.

Table 2: Summary Descriptions of Tools used in the Field Work

Tool Objectives For more information Seasonal - To understand what is “normal” rainfall and See Annex 1- Calendar temperature from the perspective of Field Guide 1: Seasonal community members Calendar. - To examine trends in rainfall and temperature - To brainstorm on future rainfall and temperature scenarios and potential responses - To evaluate use of climate information for planning Vulnerability - To determine the hazards that have the See Annex 2- Matrix most serious impact on important livelihoods Field Guide 2: Vulnerability resources Matrix. - To determine which livelihoods resources are most vulnerable - To discuss who has control over and access to livelihoods resources - To identify coping strategies currently used to address the hazards identified, and explore new potential strategies CRiSTAL - To better understand linkages between www.cristaltool.org (Community livelihoods, climate and project activities Based Risk - To identify which livelihood resources are Screening Tool – most vulnerable to climate hazards, and Adaptation and which resources are important for Livelihoods) adaptation - To assist project planners and managers in making project adjustments to improve its impact on community resilience to climate change CVCA (Climate - To analyze vulnerability to climate change http://www.careclimatech Vulnerability and and adaptive capacity at the community ange.org/cvca Capacity level, based on a framework of ‘enabling Analysis) factors’ for community-based adaptation - To combine community knowledge and scientific data to yield greater understanding about local impacts of climate change

Table 3: Field Work Research Team Name Organization Hilário Gomes Chicualacuala District Felisberto Balate Mbeve Chicualacuala District

Carlos Tembe Gaza Province-Planning Hélio Banze UNDP / Student Alberto matavel Coastal Management Institute Lucas Manhique FAO Climate Change Project Silene Bila UNEP National Consultant Maria Julieta Martinho UNDP National Consultant Excellent Hachileka IUCN

Figure 2: The Research Team analysising data using CRSTAL in Mapai

4. General Climate information for Mozambique

Mozambique is located on the eastern coast of southern Africa between 10°S and 26°S, 30°E and 40°E. The climate is mostly tropical, characterized by two seasons; a cool and dry season from May to September and a hot and humid season between October and April. The rainfall distribution in the country follows a east-west gradient, with more abundant rainfall along the coast, where the annual average varies between 800 and 2000mm, reaching as high as 1500mm on the coastal areas of Beira and Quelimane. The inland high altitude areas in the north and central regions receive approximately 1000mm, whereas the inland central and south areas receive about 600mm of rainfall (Table 1). The South of Mozambique is generally drier, more so inland than towards the coast, with an average rainfall lower than 800mm, decreasing to as low as 300mm in Pafuri District, Gaza province (INGC, 2009)

Seasonal variations in temperature are around 5° between the coolest months (June, July and August) and the warmest months (December, January and February). Geographically, temperatures are warmer near to the coast, and in the southern, lowland regions compared with the inland regions of higher elevation. Average temperatures in these lowland parts of the country are around 25-27°C in the summer and 20-25°C in winter. The inland and higher altitude northern regions of Mozambique experience cooler average temperatures of 20-25°C in the summer, and 15-20°C in winter ((McSweeney, C. et al. 2008).

The wet season lasts from November to April, coinciding with the warmer months of the year. The Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is positioned over the north of the country at this

12 time of year, bringing 150-300mm of rainfall per month whilst the south receives 50-150mm per month.

Topographical influences, however, cause local variations to this north-south rainfall gradient with the highest altitude regions receiving the highest rainfalls. Mozambique’s coastal location means that it lies in the path of highly destructive hurricanes and cyclones that occur during the wet season. The heavy rainfall associated with these events contributes a significant proportion of wet season rainfall over a period of a few days.

Inter-annual variability in the wet-season rainfall in Mozambique is also strongly influenced by Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures, which can vary from one year to another due to variations in patterns of atmospheric and oceanic circulation. The most well documented cause of this variability is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which causes warmer and drier than average conditions in the wet season of Eastern Southern Africa in its warm phase (El Niño) and relatively cold and wet conditions in its cold phase - La Niña (McSweeney, C. et al. 2008).

Chicualacuala District lies in an agro-ecological region characterized by poor to moderately fertility soil and tropical arid and semi-arid climate conditions. Annual rainfall is between 300 mm to 800 mm, and comes erratically between November and February. The relative air moistness is 60-65% with the potential evapotranspiration of reference normally over 1500mm and the annual average temperatures are above 24oC. The district experiences great variability and irregularity in the precipitation with frequent occurrence of dry periods during the farming season (Ministério da Administração Estatal, 2005).

5. Scientific observations of Climate variability and change in Mozambique 5.1 Temperature

An analysis of temperatures for the area indicate that annual means of both minimum and maximum temperatures from 1960 to 2006 shows significant changes in all regions, particularly from the early 1990’s. In the North the annual maximum average temperatures where often below 30°C before the 90’s and constantly above 30 °C after 1990. The Centre has recorded average temperatures around 31°C before 90’s; with sharp increase after 2009. The south region has typical annual maximum average temperatures around 31°C with a slight increase over the period 1960-2006 (INGC 2009).

In general country wide monthly minimum average temperatures range between 18 - 22°C in summer (October and April) and 14-18°C in winter ( between May and September) with the northern region having the lowest recorded minimum temperatures. Monthly maximum average temperatures are typically between 28-32 °C in summer and 24-28°C in winter. The central and coastal areas have the highest maximum temperatures (INGC 2009).

Annual mean minimum temperatures show noticeable increase in the northern and southern regions (INGC 2009). The mean annual temperature has increased by 0.6°C since between 1960 and 2006, an average rate of 0.13°C per decade while daily temperature observations show significantly increasing trends in the frequency of ‘hot’ days and nights in all seasons. McSweeney, C. et al. (2008), observes that the average number of ‘hot’ days per year in Mozambique has increased by 25 (an additional 6.8% of days) between 1960 and 2003. On the other hand, the average number of ‘hot’ nights per year have increased by 31 (an additional

8.4% of nights) between 1960 and 2003. The rate of increase is seen most strongly in December to February when the average number of hot DJF nights has increased by 3.6 days per month (an additional 11.6% of December to February nights) over this period.

The frequency of cold days and nights have decreased significantly since 1960 in most of the seasons with the average number of ‘cold ‘days per year decreasing by 14 (3.9% of days) between 1960 and 2003. On the other hand the average number of ‘cold’ nights per year has decreased by 27 (7.4% of days) (McSweeney, C. et al. 2008).

5.2 Precipitation Most of the rainfall in Mozambique occurs during the Southern Hemisphere summer, from October to April. Two seasons are usually distinguished, early summer (October to December) and late summer season (January to March). During the rainy season, the highest values in amount of rainfall occur in January, February and March, corresponding about 45% of the total annual rainfall. Such precipitation is generally caused by migration and activity of the Inter- tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). In the north region typical values of monthly average rainfall are 20–200 mm/month in wet season and 5–30 mm/month in dry season while in Gaza and Maputo Provinces, as well as in parts of northern Manica and Sofala, the climate type is sub-humid, with a mean annual rainfall between 550 and 800mm (INGC 2009).

The mean annual rainfall over Mozambique has decreased at an average rate of 2.5mm per month (3.1%) per decade between 1960 and 2006.

The daily precipitation observations indicate that despite observed decreases in total rainfall, the proportion of rainfall falling in heavy events has increased at an average rate of 2.6% and 5-day annual rainfall maxima have increased by 8.4 mm per decade (McSweeney, C. et al. 2008).

6. GCM Projections of Future Climate for Mozambique

6.1 Temperature

According to McSweeney, C. et al. (2008), the mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 1.0 to 2.8°C by the 2060s, and 1.4 to 4.6°C by the 2090s. Under a single emissions scenario, the projected changes from different models span a range of up to 1.8°C.

The projected rate of warming is more rapid in the interior regions of Mozambique than those areas closer to the coast and all projections indicate substantial increases in the frequency of days and nights that are considered ‘hot’ in current climate.

Annual, projections indicate that ‘hot’ days will occur on 17-35% of days by the 2060s, and 20-53% of days by the 2090s. Days considered ‘hot’ by current climate standards are projected to occur in 26-76% of days by the 2090s. Nights that are considered ‘hot’ for the annual climate of 1970-99 are projected to increase more quickly that hot days, occurring on 25-45% of nights by the 2060s and 29-69% of nights by the 2090s. Nights that are considered hot for each season by 1970-99 standards are projected to increase most rapidly in DJF, occurring on 47-97% of nights in every season by the 2090s.

All projections indicate decreases in the frequency of days and nights that are considered ‘cold’ in current climate. These events are expected to become exceedingly rare, and do not occur at all under the highest emissions scenario (A2) by the 2090s (McSweeney, C. et al. 2008).

6.2 Precipitation

Projections of mean rainfall do not indicate substantial changes in annual rainfall. The range of projections from different models is large and straddles both negative and positive changes (-15 to +20mm per month, or -15% to +34%). Seasonally, the projections show a more coherent picture, with the projections tending towards decreases in dry season rainfall occurring during September to November, offset partially by increases in wet season rainfall occurring in December, January and February.

Projected rainfall changes in the months of June to August range from -54 to +19% with ensemble median changes of -11 to -24% and during September to November, -48 to +26% with ensemble median values -10 to -12%. Projected changes in the December to February rainfall range from -9 to +25% with ensemble median values of +1 to +8%. The increases in December to February rainfall are largest in the north of Mozambique (McSweeney, C. et al. 2008).

Overall, the models consistently project increases in the proportion of rainfall that falls in heavy events in the annual average under the higher emissions scenarios, of up to 15% by the 2090s. The proportion of total rainfall that falls in heavy events is projected to increase in during December to February in projections from all models and all scenarios, by up to 18%. Models are also broadly consistent in indicating increases in March to May rainfall, but decreases in June to August rainfall and September to November rainfall (McSweeney, C. et al. 2008).

The models consistently project increases in 1- and 5-day rainfall maxima by the 2090s under the higher emissions scenarios of up to 20mm in 1-day events, and 34mm in 5-day events. These also generally increase in the December to February rainfall and March to May rainfall, but decrease in June to August rainfall and September to November (McSweeney, C. et al. 2008).

7. Analysis of current climate change vulnerability

7.1 Exposure to climate Hazards

Climate change exposure is assessed by addressing three aspects namely; magnitude, character and rate of climate change in a given geographic area of concern. Due to the lack of long-term and/or continuous meteorological records in many parts of the developing world and due to the lack of scientific climate change projections at the scale of interest (projections are usually only available at the regional or national scale and there are often very high uncertainties when downscaling projections at smaller scales), scientific information is often insufficient to analyze exposure of local communities to climate hazards and change. This scientific information needs to be complemented by an analysis of local-level climate perceptions, through consultations with communities and other local actors who are at the frontlines of climate change.

In Mapai, communities and government officials have been observing a reduction in rainfall and shortening of the rainy seasons during the last five years. Rains which used to start in September have been observed to now start later in November and tend to end earlier than before in February (see seasonal calendar on Table 4). In addition, rain frequency, distribution and predictability seem to have decreased in the area as well. This is leading to scanty pasture growth, increased water scarcity and depletion of resources. According to the community, the droughts are occurring more frequently reducing the availability of water for livestock and agriculture.

Also, according to local observations in Mapai, temperatures have increased significantly, hence the community rating extreme heat as the second major climatic hazard after drought. According to community in Mapai both day and night temperatures have increased over the years with the elders reporting that daily hotness which used to occur mainly in the afternoons now begins much earlier in mid-mornings while night temperatures are also warmer than before especially from October to February. The community also noted that the hottest months are also the months when the area receives rainfall, a challenge to crop and pasture growth due to high evaporation and evapo-transpiration leading to quick loss of soil moisture soon after it rains.

The main climate-related hazard affecting farming communities in Mapai is drought. When asked to rank the main (climatic and non-climatic) hazards affecting their livelihoods, 3 community groups out of 4 ranked drought as the main hazard and the other group ranked drought as the second most important hazard as shown in Table 5. The other hazards mentioned included extreme heat (mentioned as one of the main four hazards by 1 of 4 groups), and flooding (mentioned as the fourth hazard by 1 group).

Table 4: Seasonal Calendar for Mapai

MONTHS Jan Feb Mar Apr Ma Jun Jul Au Sep Oct Nov De y g c

Years / Seasons Rain season Cold Season Dry Season Rain season

2009

Rain

Temp

2008 Rain

Temp

2007 Rain

Temp Deleted: 2006 Rain

Temp

2005 Rain

Temp

Key: Low rains Normal rain Heavy rains Normal temp High Temp Very Cold

Table 5: Main Hazards Affecting Livelihoods in Mapai

Community Hazard 1 Hazard 2 Hazard 3 Group Old men Drought Strong winds Desertification Young men Drought Extreme Heat Strong winds Old women Extreme Heat Drought Strong winds Young women Drought Desertification Strong winds

Droughts have hit Chicualacuala district and Mapai regularly in the recent past. However, the frequency of droughts has increased since 2005 with most years having less rainfall. Droughts according to the community have become more frequent and more severe as evidenced in the last 5 years in Mapai. Drought impacts include decreased pasture availability, leading to pasture shortage, overgrazing, and land degradation; decreased water availability, leading to water shortage and long walks by women in search of water; decreased livestock disease resistance; decreased livestock productivity; death and emaciation of livestock; decreased livestock price and household income; crop failure; food insecurity and malnutrition; and increased human diseases such as malaria, cholera and diarrhea.

Extreme heat has also been experienced due to increasing temperatures in summer leading to a number of impacts on the community. The impacts of extreme temperatures are very similar to the impacts of droughts, including decreased pasture availability; increased water evaporation, leading to water shortage; emaciation and death of livestock; decreased livestock disease resistance and productivity; decreased livestock price and household income; crop failure; food insecurity and malnutrition; increased human diseases and decreased human labor productivity.

The combination of drought and high temperatures, pressure on natural resources due to increasing population and other factors have led to land degradation or desertification in Mapai. The impacts of desertification where reported as shortage of water from the surface water

17 sources, shortage and poor quality of pasture for livestock and reduced crop productivity due to loss of soil fertility, all of which reinforce land use change-induced climate change.

Strong winds have also been identified by the community as an increasing hazard leading to damage to infrastructure, damage to crops and trees as well as an increase in human respiratory and eye diseases. However, no scientific observations are available to confirm this phenomenon.

The impacts of the main hazards affecting the community in Mapai are summarized in Table 6. The main impacts are water scarcity, crop failure, reduced pasture availability,decreased availability of forest products, increase in livestock and human diseases, loss of income and general decrease in productivity of most livelihood systems.

Table 6: Impacts of Hazards in Mapai

Hazard Impacts

Drought - Crop failure - Loss of livestock - Food insecurity - Water scarcity - Loss of forest products - Decreased pasture availability (leading to pasture shortage, overgrazing, and land degradation) - Reduced water availability (water shortage) - Emaciation of livestock (livestock weight loss) - Reduced livestock disease resistance - Decreased livestock price - Reduced income - Women need to do long walks on foot in search of water

Extreme heat - Decreased pasture availability (leading to pasture shortage, overgrazing, and land degradation) - Decreased water availability (water shortage) - Death of livestock - Poor condition of livestock and weight loss - Decreased livestock price - Reduced income - Increased human and livestock diseases - Increased conflicts over scarce resources - Bush encroachment Desertification - Increased local temperatures - Decreased water availability due to increased water runoff - Poor pasture growth - Decreased availability of forest products - Increased soil erosion and decreased soil fertility and productivity

Strong winds - Damage to infrastructure - Crop damage - Damage to trees - Increase in Human diseases - Loss of soil moisture

It can be said that community observations of increasing temperatures are consistent with scientific observations and projections for Mozambique as whole. Community observations of increasing frequency of drought are consistent with climate change projections for Southern Mozambique, although not confirmed by scientific observations due to insufficient historical daily rainfall records at Mapai or Chicualacuala. The increase in temperatures projected is also already being evidenced in recent years (See Table 4 - Seasonal Calendar).

This exposure analysis clearly indicates that the community in Mapai has been highly exposed to the climate change hazards of drought, extreme heat, desertification, occasional flooding and strong winds and the impacts on their livelihoods are already being felt.

7.2 Sensitivity to climate hazards

Community sensitivity to climate change is the degree to which a community is adversely or beneficially affected by climate-related stimuli. It mainly depends on the main livelihood activities of the community (including its dependence on livestock type and/or rain-fed agriculture), its key livelihood resources, and the impacts of climate hazards on these key resources.

Communities visited in Mapai are mainly subsistence farmers growing crops and keeping livestock. The main crops grown as identified by all the four groups consulted include maize, sorghum, millet, beans, ground nuts, cashew nut, water melon, pumpkin and cassava. The common livestock include cattle, goat, pigs, sheep, donkeys, chickens and ducks.

Both livestock and crop production are considered to be highly climate-sensitive as they are impacted by changes in rainfall patterns, water accumulation, extreme events, ecology of pests and diseases, temperature, and carbon dioxide concentrations. The climate change vulnerability of local communities varies with time, geographic location, and economic, social, and environmental conditions.

In Mapai, as reported by the community farming activities have been negatively affected by frequent droughts and less reliable rainfall to the extent that some members of the community do not consider farming as a viable livelihood activity. This was particularly stressed by the group of young women who indicated that their main livelihood activity had since changed to collecting and selling of forest products such as fruits and vegetables. The main and preferred crop grown by the community in Mapai is maize which less drought tolerant while communities are mainly using local varieties which are not suitable to the changing agro-conditions.

The impact of frequent droughts have also affected livestock due to reduced pastures and water as most of the traditional livestock management practices in Mapai depend on communal grazing areas with minimal or no supplementary feeding. The pasture and water available for livestock has become scarce leading to poor condition of livestock and an increase in livestock diseases.

Rain-fed crop farming and traditional livestock keeping, the two key livelihood activities for the community in Mapai are highly sensitive to the climate hazards being experienced and as such climate change is posing a serious challenge to the community wellbeing. A more detailed sensitivity review of the community to climate hazards is demonstrated through an analysis of the impact of the hazards on key livelihood resources for the community.

The main livelihood resources identified by the 4 community groups consulted are listed in Table 7. The resources in red are those that are already significantly affected by drought, extreme heat events, desertification or strong winds. As can be seen, most of the natural, financial and human resources on which the Mapai community depends are already significantly affected by climate-related hazards.

Table 7: Key Livelihood Resources impacted by Climate hazards (in Red) and resources important for coping strategies (all)

Asset Type Key livelihood Resources Identified

Natural Farmland

Water

Trees

Physical Farming implements

Roads

Railway line

Financial Sale of livestock

Sale of crops

Access to markets

Sale of forest products

Human Farming skills

Health skills

Asset Type Key livelihood Resources Identified

Veterinary skills

Social Church

NGOs

Saving and credit groups

Women income generating groups

Traditional resource management system

7.2.1 Current Impacts on livelihood resources

Impacts on natural resources: Farmland, trees and water are the most important natural resources in Mapai and the community is observing significant negative impacts of drought and extreme heat events on these natural resources.

The Community in Mapai and government officials in Chicualacuala have all mentioned the increase in land degradation and declining availability, productivity and quality of pastures, crop land and water resources. This is due to changing environmental conditions (more frequent droughts, shorter rainy seasons, and occasionally heavy precipitation events), land degradation (due to the uncontrolled bushfires, overgrazing, and changing climatic conditions), deforestation (due to land clearing for crop production and charcoal production) and resulting desertification. Certainly the crop production and grazing potential of the land has reducing due to shorter rainy seasons, frequent droughts, erratic rainfall and overgrazing. The water resources available for domestic use, livestock watering and farming has reduced tremendously resulting into low yields, poor condition of livestock and poor sanitation and hygiene.

Frequent droughts in Mapai have reduced the productivity, particularly, of wild fruits and vegetable on which many women depend for income generation. In addition, one of the major coping strategies undertaken by communities in times of drought is fire wood and charcoal selling which lead to increased deforestation and loss of non-timber forest products among other forest services and products the community derives from the local forest.

Impacts on physical resources: Mapai is serviced by a good gravel road and the Limpopo corridor railway line from Maputo to the border with Zimbabwe. These are important for access to markets for the community as cattle is slaughtered and meat and other forest products sold to business people who come by train from Maputo. Few physical resources are impacted by drought. However, it is noted that in some areas a number of boreholes and wells have become less productive due to the low water table resulting from prolonged and frequent droughts. The women in Mapai observed that the resulting scarcity of water poses a disproportionate impact on women as water is an essential resource for women’s productive and reproductive tasks.

Water scarcity increases their chores, as they need to make greater efforts to walk long distances to collect, store, protect and distribute water.

Figure 3: The road and railway line at Mapai Administrative Post

Impacts on financial resources: The main financial resources on which the communities in Mapai depend are, limited sale of crops, sale of livestock (cattle, pigs, goats and chickens) and sale of forest products including fruits, vegetables, firewood and charcoal. The sale of wild fruits and vegetables was said to be the main financial resource for young women. All these financial resources are strongly impacted by drought and desertification as most of them are directly dependent on climate-sensitive natural resources, such as pasture, farmland and forests.

Figure 4: Chickens and Goats are common livestock in Mapai

As mentioned above, drought leads to decreased pasture and water availability, access and quality, which in turn leads to livestock emaciation and death, reduced livestock productivity (in terms of milk and meat), decreased livestock disease resistance. As stated by all community groups, the income generated through livestock and crop sales is not sufficient anymore, leading to increased poverty, food insecurity, and migration of young people to near-by towns.

Amongst livestock species in Mapai, cattle are especially vulnerable to climate change while goats and donkeys are more drought resistant and are less affected by pasture degradation. These will become more important as pasture and water become scarce with future climate change.

Maize is the cereal crop of preference even though the communities know it is not drought tolerant and does not produce good yields under the changing climatic conditions and soils in Mapai. Millet and sorghum are also widely grown cereal crops and the farmers know they are more drought resistant than maize. However, they prefer maize because millet and sorghum are more prone to bird attack and, in the case of millet, more difficult to process for eating. The other drought tolerant crops grown widely are cow peas, water melons and groundnuts. The drought tolerant crops and varieties will become important for coping to future climate conditions. It should also be noted that farmers do not usually sell their food crops as there is rarely a marketable excess due to poor yields as a result of frequent droughts and lack of adaptive farming methods.

With land degradation, people are expanding maize fields to cope with drought, a risky strategy as it accelerates further land degradation making the land unsuitable for crop production after a few years of cultivation.

However, the community groups consulted seemed to agree that diversification of financial resources and income generating activities is key to adapting to changing conditions, whether this means engaging in petty trading, firewood and charcoal selling, house construction or wage labour.

The control of most financial resources at the household level by men disadvantages women as men tend to make unilateral decisions once they get the money.

Impacts on human resources: Drought is also affecting human resources which are important for people’s livelihoods, including education, health, human labor and various abilities/capabilities. The decrease in food (mainly maize) in times of drought is reported to affect local communities in Mapai as this reduces human disease resistance, human labor productivity, and human capability to undertake different activities such as farming. Climate change related food insecurity may result in especially high health risks for women as they traditionally often eat last and least, making them susceptible to illness.

Impacts on social resources: The main social resources in the community are churches and NGOs. NGOs are said to assist the community in the provision of social services though there are very few NGOs and Civil Society Organizations operating in the areas of agriculture, livestock management and water supply. Climate change hazards have had no significant impact on social resources in Mapai. However, the traditional resource management systems that are in place are important as most of the natural resources are communal with headmen and elders having control over the use of the resources for the benefit of all.

Figure 5: Old and young women during consultations on coping strategies in Mapai

The women groups though exist, they do not have many organized income generating activities and will need capacity building in a number of areas including enterprise development for income diversification.

The community in Mapai largely depends on the natural environment to provide most of the livelihood resources. The eminent degradation of the ecosystems resulting from climate change hazards is having serious impacts on the livelihoods of this community as the hazards are already resulting in reduced availability of goods and services to local communities and reduced economic opportunities especially for women.

7.2.2 Implications of projected climate change for rural livelihoods in Mapai

When presented with future climate change scenarios for Mapai (decreasing rainfall and increasing temperatures), communities mentioned that this is similar to the trends that they are already experiencing. They predict the following impacts on their livelihoods, categorized in natural resources, agriculture and people impacts.

Natural Resources: Natural resources occupy a predominant place in the lives of the community in Mapai. The success of their main livelihood activities (livestock rearing and agriculture) and their survival depend directly on the availability, quality, access and control over natural resources such as water, pastures, arable land, and forests/trees. The projected impacts of climate change on key natural resources are presented in this section.

Arguably one of the most apparent impacts of climate change in Mapai is water shortages. The predicted reduction in precipitation and an increase in temperatures for Mapai will likely lead to enhanced water evaporation rates, as temperatures are already very high, thereby leading to increased water scarcity. This will affect human well being, agricultural production with potential widespread food insecurity.

Figure 6: Water scarcity is a major problem in Mapai

Increasing temperatures and more frequent hot days and nights, projected in Mapai will likely affect pasture growth, availability and quality, as well as crop yields. Communities in Mapai are already mentioning high temperatures as a key hazard, leading to decreased pasture availability (subsequently leading to pasture shortage, overgrazing, and land degradation), crops wilting and decreased crop yields.

Although high temperatures and changing rainfall patterns are likely to affect tree growth, the major threats affecting forests and trees are the coping strategies put in place by community members in times of drought: firewood and charcoal selling. These livelihood activities provide households with an alternative income source when livestock and crop production fail due to droughts or other hazards. Although these strategies are effective on the short-run, they become unsustainable with increasing drought frequency, leading to massive deforestation and forest degradation. With future climate change, pressures on forest resources are likely to intensify, unless more sustainable sources of fuel are provided and alternative income-generating activities are put in place for the rural community.

Deforestation and forest degradation is also influencing the local climate (by influencing rain patterns, air and soil moisture content, and temperature variations) and can thereby amplify the impacts of global climate change at the local level. Deforestation and forest degradation can also diminish the future adaptive capacity and livelihood options of local communities.

Agriculture (Livestock and Crops): There are strong linkages between climate change and agricultural productivity especially in poor rural communities who depend solely on rain-fed agriculture. This makes rural livelihoods extremely vulnerable in terms of food security as rainfall variability increase and the growing seasons shrink. Pasture and water for livestock is also impacted as these resources become scarce.

In view of the climate projections presented in Section 6, together with other prevailing conditions such as increasing environmental degradation, livestock populations in Mapai may decrease in the long term. Some breeds of livestock may not cope well with extreme heat events

25 and could suffer high mortality due to increased incidences of weather-related diseases. Inadequate access to veterinary services could also contribute to an exacerbation of mortality. Further, a reduction in livestock numbers could also occur due to increased incidences, duration and severity of droughts in the area. Mapai is likely to witness a decline in the quality of livestock over time. More frequent and severe droughts, coupled with a degraded environment, scarcer water resources and decreased disease resistance will contribute to a decrease in body mass, reproductive capacity (in terms of the survival of young ones) and milk production.

It is noteworthy that the points highlighted above are based on climate change projections only, and that there are still high uncertainties regarding rainfall projections. In addition, other factors that drive vulnerability such as inappropriate policies, land use changes, population pressure, and environmental degradation may combine with climate change impacts to produce negative outcomes.

The anticipated changes in agro-ecological conditions and increases in extreme events (such as extreme heat, droughts and occasional floods) might increase food assistance needs in Mapai. Unless communities switch to improved livestock management and drought resistant crops, food security will become a serious challenge in Mapai. This is particular so as rain-fed subsistence crop production which is being practiced might become more and more challenging with the predicted increase in temperatures and more frequent droughts.

Climate change impacts on key financial resources might also reduce households’ capacity to purchase staple foods leading to increased malnutrition especially among children and infants.

People: People and social structures in rural communities are likely to be strongly affected by future climate change, mainly as a result of climate change impacts on key natural resources, crops and livestock. Significant impacts can be expected on human health and nutrition, social structures and interactions, and markets and prices.

Climate variability and change has already had adverse effects on human health and these include: heat stress, vector-borne diseases such as malaria and water-borne diseases such as diarrheal. Climate change is likely to exacerbate the occurrence and intensity of these and other disease outbreaks.

Increased human health problems are already being experienced in Mapai due to high temperatures, increased dust due to stronger winds over land left bare as a result of land degradation, and poor sanitation as clean drinking water gets more scarce.

Given the predictions that it will get hotter and dryer in Mapai, sanitary and vector-transmitted diseases could change in distribution, range, prevalence, incidence and seasonality. Similarly, higher temperatures and increased rainfall intensity that may lead to flash floods might result in more water-borne diseases during the rainy season. However, there remain high uncertainties regarding the impacts of future climate change on diseases.

Increased food insecurity and malnutrition is likely to decrease human disease resistant and human labor productivity and increase human death, unless health services which are currently poor in Mapai are improved in the near future.

As droughts are becoming more frequent, pasture and water scarcity will impact negatively on livestock and production of maize the stable food in the area. This has an adverse implication on the availability of food for home consumption as well as income to purchase food from nearby towns during bad harvest years. Therefore, with anticipated higher temperatures and increased rainfall unpredictability, combined with increasing land degradation, food security and nutritional challenges might increase in the future.

Markets and Terms of Trade: The negative impacts of climate change (increased rainfall variability and heavy precipitation events, prolonged droughts, extreme heat and increased land degradation) on crop yields will likely decrease the availability of crops on the market and lead to a substantial increase in crop prices. On the opposite, decreased pasture availability and livestock quality in times of drought leads to increased livestock brought to the market and reduced livestock prices. These market conditions in times of drought (i.e. increased grain prices and decreased livestock prices) reduce terms of trade for the rural poor, leading to reduced household income and increased poverty.

Poor road infrastructure into the interior might also reduce market access for communities living away from the main transport line (road and railway), thereby limiting their capacity to rapidly sell their livestock when a drought starts or buy food when their livestock or crop production fails.

Community sensitivity under projected climate change scenarios is likely to get worse given the above projected future impacts on resources, the main livelihood system and on the people.

7.3 Adaptive capacity

The adaptive capacity of a community is its ability to adjust to climate change, to moderate or cope with the impacts, and to take advantages of the opportunities. Adaptive capacity is often a function of economic wealth, literacy rate, access to information, markets, technology, services and assistance, institutional capacity, and the underlying causes of vulnerability. In many developing countries, adaptive capacity in the face of climate change is very low, due to inadequate access to resources, technologies, services and information, and low institutional capacity.

7.3.1 Underlying drivers of vulnerability in Mapai

In order to review the adaptive capacity of the community, a clear understanding of the no- climatic underlying causes of vulnerability is required. The vulnerability to climate change in Mapai is not only caused by climate change but through a combination of social, economic and other environmental factors that interact with climate change. It is the interaction of all these multiple stressors that make Mapai vulnerable to climate change. These vulnerabilities include environmental degradation, population pressure, general poverty, limited alternative livelihood activities, a lack of technical capacities, poor infrastructure and weak institutions. Below is an elaboration of the community’s views on some of the underlying causes of vulnerability in Mapai.

Environmental degradation: Increasing deforestation rates, pasture and farmland degradation and desertification are important drivers of vulnerability in Mapai. Recurrent drought, increased felling of trees for firewood and charcoal production, overgrazing, agricultural expansion and inappropriate agricultural practices have led to increased soil erosion, lower quality of pasture and reduced carrying capacity for livestock and humans per unit area. The increased frequency of droughts do not give rangelands enough time to recover, leaving large areas bare, thus susceptible to soil erosion by wind and water. When heavy intensive rains fall on bear soils, there is increased erosion and poor ground water recharge as the run-off is rapid. Some climate change copping strategies being employed by the community also contribute to further environmental degradation. For example, cutting trees to produce charcoal and firewood for sale further contribute to environmental degradation and reduces community resilience to climate change as resources become scarcer. As such, degraded ecosystems in Mapai offer limited support for community adaptive capacity.

Population pressures: Increasing human populations in the research areas and current imbalance between population density and available natural resources have been mentioned as a driver of vulnerability by community members and government officials in Mapai. Increasing human populations can be attributed to various factors, including immigration and settlement along the major road and railway line leading to high population density pockets in some areas. With increasing populations, there is higher demand for harvesting of natural resources and for clearing of new farmland. All these lead to increased land degradation reinforcing the about driver.

Inadequate off-farm employment opportunities and skills: The community in Mapai has limited education, skills, and opportunities to engage in alternative and sustainable off-farm income generating activities. This leads most of the community members to turn to the natural resources for collection of forest products and firewood/charcoal which in turn degrade the environment.

Poor access to infrastructure and services: While Mapai central is served by the main gravel road and railway line, the interior has very poor access to the markets making it extremely uncompetitive for communities in these areas to travel on difficulty routes to reach the market. Therefore, many people have very limited access to markets, financial resources, and information, technology, education and health services. With few resources at their disposal and limited access to quality social services, most of the community tends to be very vulnerable when hazards occur. For example, during the onset of drought, people in far off remote areas may be unable to quickly transport livestock to Mapai for sale. When livestock and human diseases break out, the appropriate medical attention and medication are not readily accessible and have to depend on traditional methods which may not be effective on new diseases.

Inadequate capacity for improved Natural Resources management at local level: Effective adaptation to climate change can only take place when there is adequate capacity in terms of knowledge, information, infrastructure, skills, enabling policies and strategies at various levels including at the grass roots for natural resources management. One of the major contributors to the vulnerability of the community in Mapai is the inadequate capacity and institutional support for sustainable natural resources management and creation of alternative

28 off-farm livelihood activities for the majority of the community. This leaves the community very vulnerable to climatic dictates.

7.3.2 Current coping strategies

Communities in Mapai are already undertaking activities to cope with drought and other climate-related hazards. An assessment of current local coping strategies, as well as their effectiveness and sustainability, provides an insight on local adaptive capacity. The current coping strategies being implemented by the community are presented in Table 8 below.

It is important to note that not all current local strategies to cope with hazards are efficient or appropriate for long term adaptation. Some strategies, based on short-term considerations, survival needs, lack of information or imperfect foresight, can worsen environmental degradation and thereby diminish future adaptive capacity and livelihood options (Eriksen, 2001). The sustainability of different coping strategies also depends on the intensity, duration and frequency of the hazard. For example, traditional coping strategies such as charcoal and firewood selling and shifting to new fields might be efficient coping strategies for now but they in the long run accelerate land degradation as both coping strategies lead to massive deforestation, making them obsolete in the long run, and leading to intensification of climate change impacts. The unsustainability of many traditional coping strategies in the face of current climate change is already visible, and has been mentioned by community members who fear for worse conditions particularly from cutting of forests for firewood and charcoal sales.

Table 8: Current Strategies to Cope with the Main Hazards

Hazard Coping strategies

Drought - Consumption of wild tubers and fruits - Selling of firewood and charcoal - Selling of wild fruits and vegetables - Sale of livestock - Petty trading - Digging deeper well and walking long distances to fetch water - Travelling long distances in search of pasture and water for livestock - Purchasing water for animals and humans Extreme heat - Designating new grazing areas - Digging deeper wells - Opening new fields - Grazing livestock in the morning and evening - Planting shed trees - Working early in the mornings Desertification - Use of animal manure to improve soil fertility - Petty trading - Migrating to towns for employment - Digging deeper wells

- Cultivating along the river - Selling of fire wood and charcoal Strong winds - Building strong structures - Rebuilding the structures damaged - Planting wind breaks - Protective measures

In order to identify coping strategies that may not be sufficient to adapt to projected future climate impacts, a SWOT analysis of the current coping strategies is undertaken in Table 9.

Table 9: SWOT Analysis of Current Coping strategies

Hazard Coping strategies Strength Weaknesses Opportunities Threats

Drought - Consumption and - The - The availability - The on-going - Increased selling of wild tubers, traditional of wild tubers, process of consumption and fruits and knowledge fruits and forest commercializatio vegetables and skills in vegetables is inventories n of wild tubers, identifying being and the fruits and and affected and forthcoming vegetables processing will get more Community without these affected by based forest sustainable products is frequent managemen management available in droughts and t under the and harvesting the bush fires while UN Joint measures community the lack of Programme threatens while access management led by FAO overexploitation to forest systems will improve and possible local products to undermines forest extinction of key all the managemen species community sustainability t and the members sustainability ensures that of the forest all can products access and - Selling of firewood benefit from - The and charcoal these - The over- Community- resources exploitation of based Forest - The over- forests for Managemen exploitation of firewood and t programme forests for - The charcoal under the UN firewood and increasing production is Joint charcoal demand for leading to Programme production as fire wood increased led by FAO well as for and deforestation will improve clearing for charcoal in and land managemen farming is nearby degradation t and threatening the urban with regulation of micro-climate of centers implications for harvesting of the area and this provides a sustainable firewood will lead to more huge market livelihoods for and climate change for these the charcoal by impacts as this products community strengthenin reduces the while they g forest community’s are also governance ability to adapt to open to all and climate change community promoting impacts in future members woodlots for since forests are - Sale of livestock firewood key to water resources and - The plans to other coping - The lack of contract a strategies appropriate modern

abattoir abattoir in facilities Mapai will threatens the improve the - The declining continuity of marketing numbers of this market conditions livestock due to - Selling of while the and hygiene decreasing livestock is prices offered for the pasture and very by the traders community water resources lucrative for are low. and traders amid increasing the Limited while the livestock diseases community veterinary promotion of due to climate as the services is also CAHWS will change traders who a limiting help with come by factor Vet. support train from - Digging deeper well and walking long Maputo provide a distances to fetch water for domestic market - The use programme

to put up bores by - The biggest government problem is will easy the walking long problem for - The major threat is distances to women if the widespread fetch water these are salty - Where the which exerts a located in all underground water table tall on women the villages water especially is still high, as they have in Mapai area - Travelling long water can less time to and the distances in search be found attend to increasing dryness of pasture and without using other equally - The pending and lower water water for livestock sophisticate important construction table due to d machinery domestic of a dam in climate change for digging chores Mapai area deeper wells will provide water for - The livestock in a decreasing nearby area availability of though - The traditional - The water and pasture will livestock keeping availability of pasture in remain a trend where water and neighboring problem until livestock numbers pasture in river systems pasture are paramount to surrounding due to growing is quality may limit river systems frequent introduced the success of droughts and and destocking to suit high adopted declining water temperatures together and pastures with - There is also likely destocking conflicts with - Purchasing water for other animals and communities over humans pasture and water resources if there is increased - competition from the other communities for resources

- Not all community - Declining water - The supply of members have availability due to water by resources to frequent droughts individual purchase and high - Petty trading entrepreneur water temperatures as s with own well as the bores ensure declining availability of availability of water and - The non- cash to

improved existence of communities due efficiency in a chain store to declining crop

water use in in the area yields and sales of the that may livestock community provide - The lack of competition capital for to local - The most traders - The likely increasing community commercializatio population in members to n of forest Mapai engage in products provides an petty trading available to all increasing community market for members for petty trading petty trading may lead to overexploitation and undermine future adaptation capacity

Extreme heat - Designating new - There are still - Designating - The - The decrease in grazing areas areas that new areas for introduction pasture quality may be grazing will of pasture and water designated increase land growing resources due to as new degradation under the frequent droughts grazing from over- FAO project and high areas grazing as will help temperatures is pasture quality provide likely to impact decline due to more the new climate pasture designated change grazing areas - Digging deeper wells - Same as for - Same as for - Same as for - Same as for drought drought drought drought above above above above - Opening new fields - There is a high risk - The - The major - There is a to increasing land community weakness in great degradation and still has this coping opportunity biodiversity loss, arable areas strategy is that to introduce including loss of that have it does not drought forest products not yet been address the tolerant and which the opened up declining early community is for farming rainfall and maturing already high crops using depending on for temperatures conservation coping if forests which are farming in are cleared to already old fields create new fields affecting without agricultural clearing new ones but productivity but instead improve increases the productivity

demand for in the face labour due to of climate agricultural change expansion draining

merger resources

- Grazing livestock in which would the morning and be useful in - The pasture late afternoon - other coping quality and water strategies such scarcity may as make this strategy conservation - ineffective - Planting shed trees

farming

- Shed trees - The livestock - Improved will also get less time to livestock provide feed and may management multiple become weak - The desire including benefits to and for destocking will the malnourished communitie alleviate the community s to plant problem through especially if trees in their supplementary - Working early in the multi- - The trees may area feeding mornings not grow fast purpose trees are enough due to frequent used droughts and - There are no extreme heat - risks of

burglary -

- Other activities

that ought to be done in the morning may suffer such as child care activities by women

Desertificatio - Use of animal - Animal - Applying - The - Some community n manure to improve manure is manure in promotion of members do not soil fertility available for fields prone to conservation have livestock to most of the droughts make farming and provide the community the soil drier rainwater manure members and harvesting from their encourages by FAO livestock insect attacks on the crop - See above - Petty trading - See above See above - See above - The proximity - Migrating to towns to urban - The departure of for employment - Only young centers young people in people and search of jobs in particularly urban centers men can leaves the older venture in this men and women activity but with less capacity they lack skills to do some of the to attract local livelihood better paying activities, leading jobs - See above to further - Digging deeper vulnerability

wells - See above - The

promotion of - See above - Cultivating along - Along the - See above gardening at the river river appropriate - The reducing systems the - Cultivating distances water flows in the soils are along the river from the river river systems due usually more leads to banks will to frequent fertile and siltation of promote droughts have more rivers and may sustainable moisture worsen the use of the water river systems shortages

- Selling of fire wood - See above - See above

and charcoal - See above - See above

Strong winds - Building strong - Some of the - Lack of - - Reducing structures building resources to availability of local materials are buy other materials due to readily materials such bush fires and available as cement over-harvesting locally and roofing sheets - Planting wind breaks - Planting - The trees has - The water promotion of - other shortages and tree planting benefits for high by FAO and the temperatures other community may limit tree agencies in growth the area including establishmen t of community nurseries will make trees for planting readily available

As Table 9 shows, most of the strengths for the coping strategies revolve around the use of available natural resources for which all community members have access, particularly forests. However, these natural resources are all sensitive to climate change impacts and are already being degraded.

The major weakness is the lack of financial resources to utilize the coping strategies effectively as the major sources of income (crop and livestock sales) are being adversely impacted by climate change.

The opportunities available for effective use of these coping strategies depends on the introduction of new technologies and support from agencies that may start to work in the area given that the local institutions and service provision is weak. The major threat to most of the coping strategies is their lack of sustainability in the face of current and projected climate change impacts which will lead to ecosystem degradation and loss of goods and services from the natural resources on which this community depends on. With the increase in the frequency and intensity of droughts and high temperatures anticipated, it is likely that the adaptive capacity of the Mapai community will progressively be weakened. The

34 resources they draw upon to build their resilience will be eroded and the impacts of climate change may be progressively damaging in the near future. In fact, the vulnerability of Mapai to climate change has already been exacerbated by many other stresses, including the loss of habitats and natural resources, reduced ecosystem services, and land degradation.

7.3.3 Suggested adaptation activities for current and future climate change impacts

Starting with coping strategies being undertaken by the community, a number of adaptation options were formulated using the CRiSTAL Tool which takes into account sustainability in view of projected climate change impacts. This was done by analyzing all the coping strategies in terms of sustainable development and climate change. The strategies suggested are deemed not to deplete economic assets, not to have potential to degrade the environment but improve it while enhancing livelihoods of women, men and children. These are elaborated below:

Modification of farming practices: In farming, the following adaptation options are suggested:

a) Provision of farmers with short-term weather forecast data from the National Meteorological Department tailored made for farmers such as 7-10 day forecasts for improved management decision making that reduce climatic uncertainties in their daily farming operations such as choice of on crop varieties, timing of farming activities and general planning. This will help farmers to adjusting to the seasonal changes in the onset and cessation of rainfall by changing their planting dates to, for example coincide with the new rainfall regimes. b) Improved provision of extension services for improved farming practices through conservation farming using suitable crops and varieties of drought resistant or early maturing cereal and legume crops such as sorghum, millet, cassava, groundnuts, beans etc. It is recommended that agricultural practices that improve soil fertility such as agro- forestry be promoted, given the declining productivity of the soil. c) Use of minimum and reduced tillage technologies in combination with planting of cover crops and green manure crops should be encouraged as these help in reversing soil erosion and nutrient loss due to climate change.

Catchment rehabilitation, maintenance, rehabilitation and construction of water infrastructure for improved water availability: Water scarcity is one of the major impacts of drought in Mapai. It is recommended that investments be made by government and NGOs in water supply infrastructure for the community in Mapai. This should include where ecologically sound, construction of sand dams and rehabilitation of defective boreholes, drilling new ones and training communities on improved maintenance of the facilities. Water supply needs to be improved for domestic use, livestock watering and small scale irrigation to help the communities cope with the impacts of climate change. This should be coupled with catchment rehabilitation by promoting planting of appropriate trees to encourage ground water recharge. Water harvesting though not widely practised should be promoted hand in hand with soil and water conservation measures. Planting of multi-purpose trees, restoration of wetlands, and gulley reclamation should be promoted for reversing land degradation as one of the factors that contribute to the changing climate in Mapai is deforestation. This is critical for the restoration of ecosystems services which include improving water availability.

Improved livestock management practices: Livestock is one of the most important livelihood activities in Chicualachuala. However, given that livestock management is still mainly traditional with a stronger emphasis on numbers rather than on quality, it is important to sensitize the community on the need for matching livestock numbers with the carrying capacity as the pastures and water resources for livestock are getting scarce due to climate change impacts. Destocking, accompanied by improved provision of veterinary services and rangeland management extension should be prioritized in the coming years. There is also need for livestock diversity and adjustments in herd composition towards less grazers (cattle and sheep) and more browsers and drought-tolerant species such as goats. This shift will be important as droughts become more frequent and temperatures get higher. In addition communities should be sensitized on the importance of veterinary services for improved livestock management and support should be given to the training and functioning of Community Animal Health Workers for provision of basic veterinary interventions

Diversification of livelihood activities for communities: Given the high dependence of the population on agriculture, alternative livelihood options outside agriculture are limited for the great majority of the people of Mapai. Therefore, it is important to promote and facilitate micro-financing support for the community for income diversification in some non-agricultural off-farm activities. Activities such as improved harvesting, processing and marketing of forest products need to be promoted while growing of fruit trees and vegetables through irrigation from improved water supply are the other suggested options. It is important for communities to get engaged in different kinds of income generating activities such as petty trading, labor work, and other forest based entrepreneur activities. This will help reduce the community’s risks to climate change.

Community-based participatory management of Natural Resources: The dependence of the Mapai community on natural resources which are currently over exploited requires that an effective system of natural resource management is put in place to promote sustainable management of the resources as more pressure is exerted by the increasing population dependent on the forest products. Support to community forest management by establishing Joint Forest Management Systems for conservation and controlled harvesting and marketing of indigenous fruits and vegetables from the forest for income diversification is suggested as priority adaptation option.

Public health and sanitation: Support the campaigns by the Ministry of health on improved hygiene and protection from diseases which have become more prevalent as a result of droughts and high temperatures and strong winds. Malaria prevention activities such as mosquito breeding areas spraying and management of stagnant water from intermittent flush floods should be mainstreamed into general hygiene and sanitation. Planting of multi-purpose trees around the fields and homesteads will in addition to reducing the impacts of strong winds also help to improve the homesteads and provide other benefits to the households.

Raising community awareness on climate change issues, projections and potential adaptation strategies, so that they can prepare as much as possible for the coming impacts. Adapting to climate change impacts requires a mindset shift by all stakeholders and this can best be achieved by putting place awareness raising activities for all stakeholders. 7.3.4 Enabling conditions and constraints to implementing suggested strategies

Consultations with communities in Mapai allowed the identification of enabling conditions and barriers to adaptation at local and district levels. The following enabling conditions and constraints to the adoption of the suggested adaptation options at the local level were identified

Table 10: Enabling conditions and constraints at the local level in Mapai

Strategy Enabling conditions Constraints Modification of farming - The possibility of a Met. Station - The lack of a local weather practices being re-established in station to provide short-term Chicualacuala weather forecasts for farmers at - Presence of the Mozambique the moment Agrarian Investigation Institute in - Lack of an efficient extension Chokwe that may have relevant service system in the area results for Mapai - Non-availability of inputs such as - Presence of a Polytechnic improved seed of drought Agrarian Institute in Chokwe for resistant crops and varieties in the undertaking adaptation studies area in crops and livestock - New crop varieties may be - The people of Mapai are susceptible to pests and diseases traditionally farmers - Possible resistance to new crops - The existing National Green and varieties by the local Revolution Strategy which community focuses on agricultural - Inadequate knowledge on the intensification management of drought resistance, early maturing crop varieties and types - Limited knowledge/skills to adapt farming practices to new climate conditions Improved livestock - Market access for livestock (train - Declining pasture availability and management practices to Maputo) quality - Livestock keeping is a traditional - Cultural resistance to destocking –cultural trait of the Mapai - Poor animal health services in the community community with no pharmacies - The existence of the fire or drug stores management plan in the district - Shortage of extension staff in the - The presence of trained Para- area to facilitate destocking veterinary Staff that are capable - Lack of training in improved of providing basic services if management techniques such supported with drug kits as supplementary feeding - Lack of knowledge on the types of animals that are better adapted to the new and projected climatic conditions - Traditionally, holding a large number of livestock is still a source of prestige and a way to spread risks (instead of diversifying in other activities). Such attitudes may be a challenge to improved livestock management. - Reducing livestock numbers would require increasing the productivity of animals or promoting other income

generating activities to avoid a decrease in income levels Diversification of - Community members have the - Limited market access and limited livelihood activities willingness to undertake other up-to-date market information livelihood activities - Limited financial support and - Drought times are favorable for credit access to engage in broker activities (undertaken by different kinds of business activities young men) as there are many - Limited skills to engage in new livestock to sell during those times income generating activities - Limited water resources available for farming and irrigation in many areas - Firewood and charcoal selling is leading to depletion of forest resources that provide other forest products important for sale by women Catchment - The existence of the UN Joint - Lack of tree nurseries in the area rehabilitation, Programme on Environmental to provide trees for planting maintenance, Mainstreaming and adaptation - Lack of financial resources and rehabilitation and to climate change under FAO knowledge on catchment construction of water which will be promoting multi- rehabilitation infrastructure for purpose trees for agro-forestry in - Low water table for groundwater improved water availability the area, harvesting - The existing Action Plan for - Mostly salty borehole water in the prevention and reduction of area uncontrolled fires - Rainfall scarcity in the area - The 2007 National Strategy for - There are maintenance issues water resources in Mozambique regarding current water which is promoting drilling of infrastructures boreholes and construction of - Some water infrastructures may dams and river basin lead to ecological problems management for sustainable (overgrazing, erosion, etc.) development - Availability of local materials for building - Community willingness to maintain and rehabilitate existing water infrastructure and participate in the construction of new infrastructure More effective, efficient - The existence of some Natural - Lack of experience in community- Community –based Resources Management based NRM in the area participatory Committees - Time constraints for community management of available - The willingness by the community members to meet to discuss NRM natural resources by to address the impacts of climate given the more pressing issues of community groups change on the livelihood seeking food and fetching water resources during drought times - Limited number of NGOs dealing with NRM in the area Improved public health - Existence of NGOs in Mapai - Possible resistance by the and sanitation (Uronga, Samaritanos, JAM LIFE) community to adopt hygienic that promote public health practices - Limited numbers of environmental health workers in the area

- The lack of public health pamphlets in local languages Raising community - There is a willingness amongst - Most local organizations and awareness on climate community members (including communities have no access to change issues the youth) to learn more about seasonal forecasts and other climate change in order to better climate information prepare themselves

There are challenges and enabling conditions for piloting of the suggested adaptation options for Mapai and Chicualacuala District as indicated in Table 10. Therefore, selection and planning for the implementation of these options requires integration of these options into broader District Planning processes as some of the obstacles may require investment by Government institutions, NGOs, the Private Sector and the community through long-term strategies. These options therefore, are suggested as critical interventions for integrating development, climate change, the ecosystems and the environment.

This is important as a lack of resources, poor institutions, or inadequate infrastructure may leave this community less able to adapt to the climate impacts. The best options are those that will help people to maintain or restore the integrity of their natural ecosystems so that these may continue to provide the livelihood goods and services.

8. Conclusions and Recommendations The community in Mapai depends directly on the services that the various ecosystems provide. These ecosystems have been adversely affected by impacts of drought, high temperatures, desertification and strong winds leaving the community vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The coping strategies employed by the community may be working in the short-term but most of them will result into maladaption for future adaptation as they erode the capacity of the community to respond to future and probably more drastic climatic impacts.

A number of underlying causes of vulnerability, particularly environmental degradation continue to contribute to the reduction of the capacity of ecosystems to meet the people’s needs for food and other products, and to protect them from the climate hazards. As such, maintenance of biodiversity and the services that healthy ecosystems may provide to the community will be a triple A investment, in addition to diversified livelihoods for building local resilience to the impacts of climate change in future.

The following recommendations are made for sustainable development planning purposes:

To contribute to the enhancement of climate change resilience among the community in Chicualacuala District in general and Mapai in particular, practitioners or bodies such as UNPD, UNEP, NGOs, CBOs and Local Authorities should take into account current climate variability, projected climate change impacts, and climate change vulnerability and adaptation when developing programmes and projects. This should involve:

a) Creating partnerships with weather and climate institutions: There is insufficient information about the current and projected climatic changes, let alone the impacts of

climate change on ecosystems and the natural resources important for livelihoods availability at appropriate scales that is relevant for local level decision-making in Chicualacuala District. This is particularly important for adapting farming activities for the farmers. This risk can be reduced by increasing timely access to farmers of short- term and long-term weather forecast data regarding seasonal climate forecasts (7-10 day and seasonal forecasts). This can help the farmers make timely and more informed decisions (such as buying of appropriate seed for drought tolerant crop varieties) to adapt to climate variability and change.

Creating practical partnerships particularly with the Mozambique Meteorological Agency, other Research institutions dealing with weather issues, and INGC, may provide the needed estimates of the biophysical impacts of climate change at the local level and improve the local responses for community livelihoods in the district. These bodies should be engaged to regularly provide targeted climate data and information on expected seasonal weather conditions as well as medium to long -term climate projections.

Such data and information will be useful for household level planning and adjustment of activity schedules to ensure that livelihoods and welfare of communities are safeguarded and improved in the face of current climate variability and change. b. Using traditional knowledge and starting from what people are already doing on the ground: Communities are already implementing coping and adaptation strategies and efforts to improve climate change adaptation can benefit from a greater understanding of what people are already doing on the ground and of the effectiveness and sustainability of current coping strategies. Local communities in Chicualacuala are at the forefront of climate change and they already are responding in different ways to climate hazards and with a number of coping strategies. This should be the first point of call to understand the resources important for coping and the challenges to effective adaptation.

Ineffective and unsustainable coping strategies are not always a choice but communities in Mapai have been pushed into some of the unsustainable strategies due to a lack of options. Participatory community consultations should be used to develop sustainable alternatives to replace ineffective or unsustainable practices. It is therefore, important to build on what is being done by the community to ensure buy-in and make sure that adaptation strategies are community-led and based on local traditions and norms. Local knowledge and technologies that are viable should be promoted and enhanced with full participation of the community.

Strategies suggested by the community and local staff in Mapai are presented in Section 7.3.2 and include suggestions related to livestock diversity, composition and numbers, rangeland management practices, farming practices, alternative income generating activities, water infrastructures, public health and sanitation, and local awareness raising on climate change. In building on these, local solutions adapted to local circumstances

should be sought through full involvement and participation of local institutions by integrating the climate adaptation measures into development plans and programmes. c. Integrating adaptation in to development plans and policies: To ensure that development programmes promote climate change resilience and increase adaptive capacity, it is important to understand which livelihood resources are sensitive to climate hazards and which resources are important for adaptation.

Livelihood resources identified in this research as being sensitive to (or highly impacted by) climate hazards have been identified in Table 7. Development programmes should aim to decrease the sensitivity of these resources (for example by promoting a shift to more drought tolerant livestock species and crops, or by promoting strategies to reduce diseases and land degradation which make resources more sensitive to climate hazards) or should aim to decrease the dependence of communities on these climate-sensitive resources by for example, promoting alternative income generating activities that are not climate-sensitive.

To increase local resilience to climate change, development plans and policies must integrate adaptation to climate change at all levels involving all stakeholders in the community.

In addition, enhancing understanding of the links between food security and ecosystems is important because, healthy, diverse and productive ecosystems will continue to be the key in providing multiple services, goods and other benefits to the community in Chicualachuala. Given that local priorities on social, political, institutional and economic issues interact with and have an important influence on vulnerability, capacities and prospects for adaptation, it is advisable to link the selection of potential responses to climate change to the overall development plans for Chicualacuala district. d) Investing in ecosystem health to build community resilience and adaptive capacity to climate change

There is growing recognition of the role that well-managed ecosystems can play in supporting adaptation - through increasing resilience and decreasing vulnerability of people to the impacts of climate change. The direct dependence of the community in Chicualacula district on natural resources makes ecosystem management central to building the resilience of the community. An investment in sustainable management of forest and wetland ecosystems in the district is important as it will offer cost-effective solutions to reducing community vulnerability to climate change impacts. This will also help restore ecosystem service and livelihood benefits healthy ecosystems have always provided the community such as intact firewood, clean water, fibre, medicine and food, while acting as natural buffers to climate hazards.

Approaches using the “Ecosystem-based Adaptation” (EbA) which refers to a range of local and landscape scale strategies for managing ecosystems to increase resilience and maintain essential ecosystem services, and thereby reduce the vulnerability of people and nature in the face of climate change are recommended.

The proposed ecosystem-based approach to adaptation is compatible and complementary with a wide range of local and national development objectives, with on- going adaptation efforts at community level, and with existing priorities identified in Mapai. It complements other climate change responses in two ways. The natural ecosystems are resistant and resilient and provide a full range of goods and ecosystem services, including natural resources such as water and forest products on which the community in Chicualacuala depends. Secondly, natural ecosystems provide proven and cost effective protection against some of the threats that result from climate change. Therefore, ecosystem-based disaster management policies, practices and guidelines need to be an integral part of national disaster risk reduction.

e) Improving information and knowledge sharing: The climate change phenomenon is new to many and there are many uncertainties. It is therefore important to bringing lessons from various experiences from different organizations and governments who work with communities, to share experiences on climate risks and different adaptation strategies. This will help prevent the implementation of adaptation strategies that have already been shown to be unsustainable in the long run and could favor collaborative development of new adaptation strategies.

In addition, practitioners should aim to facilitate information sharing between weather and climate institutions and local communities. Seasonal weather forecasts and early warnings for climate hazards should be available to local communities and translated into local languages. In addition, communities should be supported in using climate information for planning of their livelihood activities. f) Addressing constraints to adaptation and building on enabling conditions: The main constraints and enabling conditions to the implementation of the different adaptation strategies suggested by communities in Mapai are presented in Table 10. The successful implementation of adaptation strategies will depend to a great extent on the ability of practitioners, communities and governments to address these constraints and build on existing enabling conditions. Not taking these key constraints into consideration risks undermining the success of the interventions and risks making communities even more vulnerable to climate risks. Addressing these constraints will require action from the local to the national level. In addition, improving governance systems will be essential to achieving both improved natural resources conservation and livelihoods outcomes. This will be important as the actual access of the community to natural resources is mediated by governance and societal structures, in particular, factors of rights (including land tenure rights), institutions and decision-making. Gender equity will be cardinal in this regard. g) Address the underlying drivers of vulnerability: Key underlying drivers of vulnerability in livestock and crop production in Mapai were presented in 7.3.4 and include environmental degradation, population pressure, inadequate off-farm employment opportunities and skills, and poor access to infrastructure, resources and services. Practitioners should aim to address these underlying drivers of vulnerability.

For example, interventions should aim to build resilient livelihoods by supporting investment in, and development of the requisite infrastructure and provision of services. An increase in the number of human health care centers and service provision, including immunization and medical treatment, and training of community health workers, could help reduce diseases and mortality among vulnerable groups, thereby ensuring a strong, productive population that is less vulnerable to climatic shocks. Construction of veterinary centers and expansion of Community Animal Health Workers’ services (Paravets), as well as regular supply of key veterinary medicines could help reduce livestock mortality from preventable and treatable diseases, and reduce livestock vulnerability during droughts and extreme heat events.

Social and gender equality and equity should be promoted in all interventions as increasing inequality within a given population may heighten collective vulnerability. This is important as the extent to which individuals or groups are entitled to make use of resources determines the ability of that particular group to cope or adapt to stress (Reardon and Taylor, 1996). Investments in Mapai should be targeted at different social groups such as women, men and the youths with clear benefits on their adaptive capacity in the face of current climate hazards. However, important inequalities may still remain, and women as well as youth empowerment activities should be up-scaled and replicated throughout the area. General poverty which is related to directly to access to resources and the process of marginalization, is also at the centre of the underlying causes of vulnerability in Mapai.

It is therefore, important that poverty reduction development plans and strategies are systematically evaluated and climate proofed to ensure sustainable outcomes.

h) Increasing access to markets for the rural poor

Poverty has to be addressed at its root causes through investment in the capacity of people to make better longer term decisions with regard to the resources at their disposal. At the same time, attention needs to be given to enhancing the efficiency of markets for natural resources and enhancing access or breaking down the barriers to those markets for poor and marginalized communities. Practitioners should therefore, advocate for the improvement of market conditions e.g. development of policies that support fair trade that enhances rural livelihood incomes. Direct support could be in the form of: construction of abattoirs at strategic points (e.g. market centers) in the region and training community members on hygienic slaughter, preservation and transportation of produce. They could also be trained in, and provided with, facilities for hygienic meat drying and packaging as well as forest products processing and packaging. Export markets for these products could be sought and cooperatives established and strengthened to effectively engage in, and benefit from such trade.

To counteract the ominous climate and poverty trends in Mapai, Government requires urgent changes in its rural development priorities. Government should aim to address the underlying drivers of vulnerability mentioned in 7.3.4 This should involve enhancing access to vital infrastructure, resources and services in the community, enhancing the security of farmland and

43 rangelands, restoration of the environment, creation of more efficient markets and putting in place strategies to reduce population growth, in particular through education and women empowerment.

Land use planning should re-evaluate the viability of ran-fed maize production in Mapai and designate it for the most suitable land uses to avoid continued expansion of maize fields which is unsustainable.

In addition, livestock marketing support and diversification, such as facilitating addition of value to and marketing of livestock products such as milk and meat, hides and horn, could contribute to increased community incomes. The government should also support the improvement of social safety nets by promoting self reliance, while at the same time ensuring availability and proper targeting of emergency relief aid.

Coordination, communication, and information sharing between different government agencies from national to the local levels should be promoted, especially regarding weather, climate and food security information. The information pathways should be improved, so that local communities can access seasonal weather forecasts and early warnings for climate hazards as early as possible and in their own languages, and so that governments can be promptly informed of poor rain conditions and food insecurity issues. In addition, government awareness of climate change impacts, projections, and of the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) should be enhanced at all levels (from the national to the local level), to allow government officials to better deal with current climate risks and prepare for projected climate change.

A critical issue for mainstreaming climate change adaptation into development strategies is financing (O’Brien et al. 2008; Greene, 2004). Unfortunately sometimes there is a tendency in the development assistance community to rely on additional climate funding to realize climate change mainstreaming. However, the inherent risk of climate change to successful implementation of development programmes in fact warrant the use of core development funding for effective mainstreaming. This requires integrating climate change adaptation in poverty reduction strategies and development plans at various levels.

Donors should allow enough funding flexibility to enable practitioners to adjust interventions in the face of climate change uncertainties. In addition, donor funding should include funds for emergencies and contingencies to provide projects and programmes with adequate resources to address climate-related emergencies without threatening the achievement of programme/project goals and objectives.

Donors should also promote the integration of climate change adaptation considerations into development programs, projects, and policies. In addition, donor funding for adaptation to climate change should support all the four pillars of community based adaptation, namely: building resilient livelihoods, disaster risk reduction, capacity building, and addressing the underlying causes of vulnerability (more information on these four pillars are provided in the CARE CVCA Handbook: http://www.careclimatechange.org/cvca). An integrated approach to reducing vulnerability would promote the achievement of positive programme/project outcomes, and reduce the risks of maladaptation.

9. Further research suggested

This current research cannot respond to all research needs and priorities related to climate- related crop and livestock production vulnerability and adaptation in Mapai. More research will be needed to complement and deepen the findings of this research. Key research priorities may include:

a. Broadening the scope of this current research to other areas in Chicualacuala district. The findings of this research cannot necessarily be extrapolated to other areas within Chicualacuala district, which might be exposed to different climate hazards and trends, or might have different adaptation strategies and priorities. For example, this research mostly focuses on subsistence rain-fed crop production and traditional livestock keeping which is the mainstay of the Mapai economy.

b. Linkages and synergies between the policy measures suggested in this research and existing development policies, programmes and reforms should be explored and build on.

c. Research to refine the understanding of the relationship between ecosystems and the food security of the community in order to develop policies that support sustainable food security.

d. Continuous monitoring and research is needed to better understand climate change impacts and adaptation and how they are evolving over time. This would require the establishment of key indicators that could be monitored. This should not be an ad-hoc research.

e. A deeper analysis of the influence of non-climatic factors (such as population growth, policies, land use changes, etc.) on local vulnerability to climate change. As well as a deeper understanding of how existing governance systems affect or enhance human well being and ecosystem integrity

f. An analysis of the contribution of global climate change drivers (CO2 emissions from other countries) versus local climate change drivers (local deforestation and desertification affecting the local climate).

g. An analysis of the resources (financial, human, etc.) required to adapt to climate change, although this might include large uncertainties related to different development pathways, climate change mitigation efforts, and the adaptation strategies chosen.

h. A quantitative analysis of climate change impacts to complement this qualitative research.

10. References Eriksen, S. 2001. Linkages between climate change and desertification in East Africa. Arid Lands Newsletter 49.

FAO. 2009. Draft Report from FAO as a contribution to the baseline study. UN Joint Programme on Environmental Mainstreaming and Adaptation to Climate Change in Gaza. UNJP/MOZ/085/SPA

Fischer, G., Shah, M., and Velthuizen, H. 2002. Climate change and agricultural vulnerability. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. 152 pp.

Greene, W., 2004. Aid fragmentation and proliferation: Can donors improve the delivery of climate finance? IDS Bulletin 35, 66-75.

INGC. 2009. Main report: INGC Climate Change Report: Study on the Impact of Climate Change on Disaster Risk in Mozambique. [Asante, K., Brundrit, G., Epstein, P., Fernandes, A., Marques, M.R., Mavume, A , Metzger, M., Patt, A., Queface, A., Sanchez del Valle, R., Tadross, M., Brito, R. (eds.)]. INGC, Mozambique.

IPCC . 2007. Africa. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK, 433-467.

IPCC. 2001. Climate change 2001: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Summary for policymakers. A report of the Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 17 pp.

McSweeney, C., New, M., and Lizcano, G. 2008. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles – Mozambique. Available at: http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk

Ministério da Administração Estatal. 2005. Perfil do Distrito de Chicualacuala, Província de Gaza

Readon, T. and taylor, J.E., 1996. Agroclimatic shocks, Income inequality, and poverty: evidence from Bukina Faso, World Develop. 24,901-914.

UNEP. 2009. Mainstreaming and Adaptation to Climate Change in Mozambique,

The enhancement of Water Related Community Climate Change Coping Mechanisms and Restoration of Water and Ecosystem Functioning and Resilience in Chicualacuala District in Mozambique

11. Annexes

Annex 1: Field Guide 1: Seasonal Calendar Objectives

- To understand what is “normal” rainfall / temperature from the perspective of community members - To examine trends in rainfall / temperature - To brainstorm on future rainfall / temperature scenarios and potential responses - To evaluate use of climate information for planning

How to Facilitate

This activity should take approximately 1 hours.

NOTE: Throughout the exercise and discussions, listen and take note of any mention of the following issues:

- Coping strategies (note whether they are currently being used, or whether they would like to use them, and if it is the latter, try to find out why they are not using them – what are the constraints?) - Changes in environment, conditions, hazards, livelihoods - Social or political issues that may have implications for vulnerability

STEP 1 – Prepare the calendar.

Use the ground or large sheets of paper. Mark off the months of the year on the horizontal axis. Mark off a range of years (from the SCUK historical timeline) which includes a good year, a bad year, a drought year and an average year. Try to select the most recent years.

STEP 2 – Plot timing of rainfall in past years.

Explain to the participants that you would like to develop a calendar to understand the rainfall patterns that they are experiencing. For each of the years on the

47 calendar, plot the start and end of the rainy season(s), and note the quality of the rain (light/heavy) and the distribution (did it fall all at once, was it distributed over the season, etc.,etc.). Do the same for temperature observations throughout the year.

STEP 3 – Present a future scenario.

- The climate change predictions

- Present a future scenario using the calendar if you think it will make it clearer.

STEP 4 – Discuss impacts of future scenario on livelihoods.

Ask the group how they think the future scenario will affect their livelihoods.

STEP 5 – Discuss response to potential scenario.

Ask the group how they would respond if the future scenario were to occur next year.

STEP 6 – Discuss preparation for future climate change.

Ask the group what they might do to prepare for this possible future scenario in terms of changing livelihoods strategies.

Annex 2: Field Guide 2: Vulnerability Matrix Objectives

- To determine the hazards that have the most serious impact on important livelihoods resources - To determine which livelihoods resources are most vulnerable - To discuss who has control over and access to livelihoods resources

How to Facilitate

This activity should take approximately 3-4 hours.

NOTE: Throughout the exercise and discussions, listen and take note of any mention of the following issues:

STEP 1 – Prepare the matrix.

Prepare a matrix in advance. This can be done on the ground or on flip chart paper.

STEP 2 – Identification of the major livelihood system and the livelihoods resources.

Ask the group to identify THEIR most important livelihood system and the associated livelihood resources. These do not have to be resources that they currently have, but those that they consider to be most important in achieving well-being. They may create a long list of resources. As they brainstorm, organize the list based on the different categories of resources – human, social, physical, natural and financial. Use the reference list of resources to prompt people. They may particularly need help in identifying social and human resources.

NOTE: It is unlikely that community members will categorize their resources in terms of these categories – it is the job of the facilitation team to organize their ideas within the different categories. Also, the concept of resources may be difficult. It may be better to ask participants about how they gain their livelihoods, or what they do in a typical day, and then ask them what things they need to undertake these activities. This can lead to an identification of resources.

NOTE: It is very important to make it clear to the participants that you want them to talk about their own experiences. In order to disaggregate data, it needs to be clear that participants are providing information based on their own experiences, priorities and strategies, not those of the household. This is particularly important

49 with women’s groups, who may be more inclined to speak about the activities and priorities of their husbands than their own.

STEP 3 – Prioritize livelihoods resources.

For each of the categories, ask the group to identify the THREE resources that they consider to be MOST important in achieving well-being. If they only listed three or less during the brainstorm, just use these. List these priority resources down the left side of the matrix on the vertical. Use symbols if this will help participants to better understand.

STEP 4 - Discuss control of resources and access to facilities and services.

Using the resource list, discuss who has control over the different resources that were prioritized. If the resources are facilities or services, ask participants if they are using them, and if not, why.

STEP 5 – Identify climatic hazards.

Then ask the group to identify the greatest climatic hazards to THEIR livelihoods. Hazards may be natural or man-made. Do not limit the discussion to only climate- related hazards, but you may want to prompt the group if they are not identifying environmental hazards.

NOTE: It is important to be specific in the hazards, and to ensure that the issues identified are actually hazards. Participants may identify conditions such as “food insecurity” as hazards. It is up to the facilitator to ask the group to break down these conditions to determine if they are caused by hazards (e.g. food insecurity may be the result of a drought, which is a hazard). Similarly, some groups may identify scarcity of resources, such as “lack of money”, as a hazard. In this case, it should be determined whether the lack of a resource is the result of a hazard, or in some cases, whether the resource should be added to the list of priority resources identified in the previous step.

STEP 6 – Prioritize and rank the hazards.

Ask the group to prioritize the three hazards that have the greatest impact on their livelihoods.

The THREE most important hazards should be listed horizontally across the top of the matrix, again using symbols if necessary.

Ask the community to decide on a scoring system for the hazards against the livelihoods resources, identifying significant, medium, low and no hazard. The scoring system should be as follows:

3 = significant impact on the resource 2 = medium impact on the resource 1 = low impact on the resource 0 = no impact on the resource You can use stones, symbols or different colours of markers (e.g. red = significant risk to resource, orange = medium risk, green = low risk, blue = no risk). Ensure that all members of the group understand the scoring system. Take note of the top 3 hazards.

STEP 7 - For each of the top 3 hazards, discuss any changes to the hazard.

Ask participants if the hazard is different now than it was 10/20/30 years ago (depending on age of participants). If they say the hazard has changed, ask them how (e.g. more frequent, more intense, different timing, etc.).

STEP 8 – Name /identify the impacts of each of the top 3 hazards on the major livelihood system

Ask the participants to decide on the degree of impact that each of the hazards has on the livelihood (Use the impacts on and each of the livelihood resources to have a clear picture of the impacts of the hazards. This will involve coming to consensus as a group. The note taker should note key points of discussion that lead to the scores assigned, and any disagreements on the scores. Rank the impacts and take note of the top 3.

NOTE: Ensure that you are asking the right question of the participants. The question is how much the HAZARDS affect the RESOURCES. Note that some hazards may have no impact on particular resources. It must be made clear to participants that they shouldn’t struggle to find an impact – it is perfectly fine to say that it has no impact.

NOTE: The note taker must note down the justifications for the different scores, as this will be important in understanding the data later.

STEP 9 - Discuss current coping strategies for each of the top 3 impacts of the hazard.

For each of the top 3 impacts identified, ask the group members how THEY are CURRENTLY coping with the impacts of the specific hazards identified.

Ask them if the coping strategies are working or not and if they are sustainable or not.

NOTE: It is very important to make it clear to the participants that you want them to talk about their own perspectives. In order to disaggregate data, it needs to be clear that participants are providing information based on their own experiences, priorities and strategies, not those of the household. This is particularly important with women’s groups, who may be more inclined to speak about the activities and priorities of their husbands than their own.

STEP 10 - Discuss potential alternative coping strategies or adaptation strategies.

Ask the group members if there are any strategies they would like to adopt which would help them to deal with the hazards in the future. Discuss the constraints or opportunities that exist to adopt these strategies.

STEP 11: Are there any other non-climatic causes of the impacts discussed under the hazards? If Yes, What are these?

STEP 12: Repeat Steps 8 -11 for all other 2 top hazards