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Leading ROE Supported by Low Funding Costs; Initiate at Neutral

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Leading ROE Supported by Low Funding Costs; Initiate at Neutral July 5, 2016 INITIATION BOC Aviation Ltd. (2588.HK) Neutral Equity Research Leading ROE supported by low funding costs; initiate at Neutral Investment view Investment Profile We initiate BOC Aviation at Neutral, with a 12-month target price of Low High HK$43.60, implying 11% upside. We are constructive on key strengths Growth Growth such as: (1) one of the lowest funding costs in the industry (only 2% in Returns * Returns * Multiple Multiple 2015 vs. peers’ 4%-5%) allowing BOC Aviation to generate higher ROEs; Volatility Volatility (2) its ability to time sale of assets well allows it to reinvest capital into Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th newer aircraft, maintaining a young competitive fleet; and (3) a long avg. BOC Aviation Ltd. (2588.HK) remaining lease term of 7.3 years (as of 1Q16), which stabilizes the bulk Asia Pacific Transportation Peer Group Average of the company’s revenue stream. However, we initiate Neutral as we see * Returns = Return on Capital For a complete description of the investment profile measures please refer to the higher upside elsewhere in our Asia Pacific Aviation-related coverage. disclosure section of this document. Key data Current Core drivers of growth Price (HK$) 40.05 We expect BOC Aviation to see stable net income growth of 18% CAGR in 12 month price target (HK$) 43.60 Market cap (HK$ mn / US$ mn) 27,795.1 / 3,582.5 2015-2018E, driven by: (1) a deep order book of 232 (1Q16) aircraft from Foreign ownership (%) -- rest-of-2016 into 2021 vs. current fleet size of 271 aircraft in 1Q16, driving organic growth, supplemented by purchase and lease-back opportunities; 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E EPS ($) 0.58 0.57 0.67 0.82 (2) occasional boosts from gains on aircraft sales (c.17% of profit before EPS growth (%) 11.3 (1.3) 17.2 22.2 tax in 2015); and (3) low cost of funding vs. global peers partially EPS (diluted) ($) 0.58 0.57 0.67 0.82 EPS (basic pre-ex) ($) 0.58 0.57 0.67 0.82 supported by relationship with BOC and a superior credit rating, helps to P/E (X) NM 9.0 7.7 6.3 P/B (X) NM 1.1 1.0 0.9 generate higher ROE vs. peers. EV/EBITDA (X) -- 12.0 11.7 11.0 Dividend yield (%) NM 0.0 3.1 3.9 Risks to the investment case ROE (%) 15.1 12.9 13.2 14.5 CROCI (%) 9.4 9.9 9.1 9.4 (+) Higher-than-expected lease rates. (-) Deteriorating oversupply situation of aircraft results in declining asset values. Price performance chart 42.0 23,500 Valuation 41.5 23,000 Our 12-month P/B-ROE based target price of HK$43.60 implies a FY2016E 41.0 22,500 40.5 22,000 P/B of 1.16x and FY2017E P/E of 8.4x. BOC Aviation currently trades at 40.0 21,500 8.0x forward rolling P/E vs. 5.5x/7.5x/9.5x for AerCap/Air Lease/Aircastle. 39.5 21,000 39.0 20,500 Industry context 38.5 20,000 The aircraft leasing industry is relatively fragmented and growth is driven 38.0 19,500 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 by global air passenger traffic growth, which has outstripped air capacity growth since 2012. BOC Aviation Ltd. (L) Hang Seng Index (R) INVESTMENT LIST MEMBERSHIP Share price performance (%) 3 month 6 month 12 month Neutral Absolute -- -- -- Rel. to Hang Seng Index -- -- -- Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 7/04/2016 close. Coverage View: Neutral Kenya Moriuchi +852-2978-1255 [email protected] Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies Ronald Keung, CFA covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be +852-2978-0856 [email protected] Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could Vincent Lim affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider +852-2978-6958 [email protected] Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. this report as only a single factor in making their investment Jess Chen +65-6654-5395 [email protected] Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non- US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Global Investment Research Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 1 July 5, 2016 BOC Aviation Ltd. (2588.HK) BOC Aviation Ltd.: Summary Financials Profit model ($ mn) 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Balance sheet ($ mn) 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Total revenue 1,090.7 1,164.9 1,444.1 1,746.5 Cash & equivalents 371.4 357.2 438.7 490.8 Cost of goods sold (120.1) (113.6) (140.9) (166.1) Accounts receivable 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 SG&A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Inventory 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 R&D 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other current assets 382.0 161.4 167.6 174.3 Other operating profit/(expense) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total current assets 753.8 519.0 606.9 665.7 EBITDA 970.6 1,051.3 1,303.2 1,580.4 Net PP&E 11,717.4 13,915.0 16,827.2 19,621.3 Depreciation & amortization (400.4) (421.8) (501.2) (593.3) Net intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EBIT 570.2 629.5 802.0 987.1 Total investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Interest income 1.4 2.2 1.8 2.2 Other long-term assets 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 Interest expense (168.8) (192.6) (255.9) (319.7) Total assets 12,473.9 14,436.6 17,436.6 20,289.5 Income/(loss) from uncons. subs. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Others (1.4) (2.2) (1.8) (2.2) Accounts payable 106.1 113.3 140.4 169.8 Pretax profits 401.4 436.9 546.1 667.4 Short-term debt 963.3 1,013.3 1,063.3 1,113.3 Income tax (58.1) (63.3) (79.1) (96.6) Other current liabilities 145.9 113.9 129.8 147.1 Minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total current liabilities 1,215.3 1,240.5 1,333.5 1,430.2 Long-term debt 7,648.5 8,618.5 11,008.5 13,158.5 Net income pre-preferred dividends 343.3 373.6 467.0 570.7 Other long-term liabilities 1,170.3 1,213.4 1,375.5 1,551.1 Preferred dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total long-term liabilities 8,818.9 9,832.0 12,384.1 14,709.7 Net income (pre-exceptionals) 343.3 373.6 467.0 570.7 Total liabilities 10,034.2 11,072.4 13,717.5 16,139.8 Post-tax exceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net income 343.3 373.6 467.0 570.7 Preferred shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total common equity 2,439.7 3,364.1 3,719.1 4,149.7 EPS (basic, pre-except) ($) 0.58 0.57 0.67 0.82 Minority interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EPS (basic, post-except) ($) 0.58 0.57 0.67 0.82 EPS (diluted, post-except) ($) 0.58 0.57 0.67 0.82 Total liabilities & equity 12,473.9 14,436.6 17,436.6 20,289.5 DPS ($) 0.000.000.160.20 Dividend payout ratio (%) 0.0 0.0 24.0 24.5 BVPS ($) 4.14 4.85 5.36 5.98 Free cash flow yield (%) -- (80.7) (94.8) (85.1) Growth & margins (%) 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Ratios 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Sales growth 10.3 6.8 24.0 20.9 CROCI (%) 9.4 9.9 9.1 9.4 EBITDA growth 7.9 8.3 24.0 21.3 ROE (%) 15.1 12.9 13.2 14.5 EBIT growth 13.2 10.4 27.4 23.1 ROA (%) 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.0 Net income growth 11.3 8.8 25.0 22.2 ROACE (%) 4.7 4.6 4.9 5.1 EPS growth 11.3 (1.3) 17.2 22.2 Inventory days NM NM NM NM Gross margin 89.0 90.2 90.2 90.5 Receivables days 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 EBITDA margin 89.0 90.2 90.2 90.5 Payable days 264.6 352.5 328.7 340.8 EBIT margin 52.3 54.0 55.5 56.5 Net debt/equity (%) 337.8 275.7 312.8 332.1 Interest cover - EBIT (X) 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 Cash flow statement ($ mn) 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Valuation 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Net income pre-preferred dividends 343.3 373.6 467.0 570.7 D&A add-back 400.4 421.8 501.2 593.3 P/E (analyst) (X) NM 9.0 7.7 6.3 Minorities interests add-back 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 P/B (X) NM 1.1 1.0 0.9 Net (inc)/dec working capital 42.5 7.2 27.0 29.3 EV/EBITDA (X) -- 12.0 11.7 11.0 Other operating cash flow 326.2 479.4 393.4 518.2 EV/GCI (X) -- 0.8 0.8 0.8 Cash flow from operations 1,112.4 1,282.0 1,388.6 1,711.5 Dividend yield (%) NM 0.0 3.1 3.9 Capital expenditures (3,409.9) (3,992.0) (4,786.0) (4,760.0) Acquisitions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Divestitures 2,092.3 1,350.0 1,350.0 1,350.0 Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cash flow from investments (1,317.6) (2,642.0) (3,436.0) (3,410.0) Dividends paid (common & pref) 0.0 0.0 (112.1) (140.1) Inc/(dec) in debt 536.3 1,010.5 2,551.7 2,259.6 Common stock issuance (repurchase) 0.0 550.8 0.0 0.0 Other financing cash flows (191.8) (215.5) (310.6) (369.0) Cash flow from financing 344.4 1,345.8 2,128.9 1,750.5 Total cash flow 139.2 (14.2) 81.5 52.0 Note: Last actual year may include reported and estimated data.
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