Cornell University‟s ILR School
Volume III, Issue 1 Fall 2010 SPORTS, INC. Advancing the World of Sports Soccer Analysis:
Comparing the World‟s Best Leagues
And:
Defensive Evolution
Plus: ESPN 30 for 30 Reviews 2010 Ivy Sports Symposium Coverage Interview with Daniel Halem „88, MLB SVP Labor Relations
Fall 2010 1 Sports Management Club Welcome,
Thank you for reading this latest Sports, Inc. is- sue. As former editor-in-chiefs Jeffrey Lebow ‘11, Joshua Erenstein ‘11, and I graduate this spring, we take this space to briefly give thanks and share a vision for the mag- The ILR Sports Management Club is located in Cor- azine‘s future. nell University‘s School of Industrial and Labor Relations Each current and former writer and editor has (ILR). We are an undergraduate student organization dedi- contributed with great effort and dedication. Working cated to involving our members in the sports industry and through first and second (and sometimes third and fourth) advancing the world of sports. Our club supports this mis- drafts, the time our student editors have dedicated, while sion through four main activities: balancing many other responsibilities, to this issue and the previous four is greatly appreciated. Additional thanks are 1. Guest speakers and club events due to our printer, Bloomberg LP, as well as the club‘s 2. Weekly radio show faculty advisor, Kevin Harris, for his advice and enthusi- 3. Blog asm. 4. (This) semesterly magazine This magazine itself is in a broader sense a ―thank you‖ to our professors and advisors. The goal for each Learn more about the club through our official website: issue is to present intelligent, educational, and accessible articles. Whether the subject is MLS labor negotiations, rso.cornell.edu/ilrsmc/home.php NCAA football attendance, or advanced NFL player met- rics, the analytical tools used—which could be statistical, And connect with us through: financial, legal, mathematical, historical, or cultural—are essential to our mission. Subject matter we learn in ILR and our time at Cornell influences and inspires all that we do. Facebook LinkedIn Twitter Blogger YouTube Current ILRSMC seniors started the first issue two years ago and grew with each subsequent installment, yet we have great faith in our next editor-in-chief, Jake Makar ‘13, and the still-expanding editorial team. We trust that the magazine will continue to strive for higher editorial standards and develop stronger relationships with writers and readers. Previous issues and articles have been mailed to alumni, handed to an NBA and MLB General Manager, shared with high school students considering applying to ILR, emailed to league commissioners and presidents, discussed by professional journalists, presented in Cornell courses and lectures, linked to by blogs, cited by national media and research papers alike, and even read cover-to-cover by Fortune 500 executives, but there is more the magazine can and will do. Our writers and edi- tors aren‘t content to simply observe and comment on the sports industry; we truly wish to advance it. The ILR School Quad – home of Wiffle Ball Wednesdays. This We hope you find this current issue interesting publication is not reviewed or approved by, nor does it neces- and insightful and come back for the next one. sarily express or reflect the policies or opinions of, Cornell Uni- versity or its designated representatives. All photo credits are Happy reading, on page 50.
Gabe Editor-in-chief Gabe Gershenfeld, ILR ‘11 Executive Editor Jake Makar, A&S ‘13 Layout Editor Alyssa Murrett, ILR ‘13 Business Manager Michael Hansen, CALS ‘14 Editor Leanne Westfall, ILR ‘11 Editor Joey Shampain, A&S ‘13 Editor Willie Candell, ILR ‘13 Editor Jeffrey Lebow, ILR ‘11 Editor Maddie Kaufman, A&S ‘11 Editor Mat Sevin, ILR ‘11
Editor Alex Kuczynski-Brown, A&S ‘12 Editor Matt Gordon, MILR ‘12
Volume III, Issue 1: Fall 2010
Dissecting the New NFL Overtime Rules Why new rule changes extend the game and the debate 4 Ross Berger & Joey Shampain ESPN 30 for 30 Reviews 30 Compiled by Joey Shampain Minimum Age Restrictions in Professional Sports Madden NFL A tantalizing tango of antitrust and labor law The game‟s influence around the league 7 George Yorgakaros 32 Michael Hansen
Quantifying Succession Planning and The (In)significance of BABIP Player Development Luck and future performance in baseball What the HR nine-box can learn from baseball analysis, 33 Willie Candell and vice versa 10 Gabe Gershenfeld Joe Mauer‟s Power Home run analysis Comparing the Best Soccer Leagues in 34 Mat Sevin the World A „style of play‟ statistical breakdown Television Blackouts in the NFL 14 Chris Anderson A progressive plan for the future 36 Louis Goldstein Soccer‟s Defensive Evolution Strategy and statistics from Herrera catenaccio to MLB Salary Arbitration modern catenaccio Has it raised salaries to free agency levels? 18 Ramzi BenSaid 38 Elizabeth McInnis
Football as America‟s New Pastime The Commitment Behind Fan Loyalty Storylines as the gridiron stole the crown “I bleed red” 21 Alfonse Muglia 40 Leanne Westfall
Street League Skateboarding The Dodgers Move West Marketing an extreme sport to a mainstream audience A history of negotiating franchise relocation 24 Jake Makar 45 Pyrs Carvolth, Gabe Gershenfeld, Michelle McCutcheon-Schour, & Rustin Rodewald The 2004-05 NHL Lockout Was it financially beneficial for the league? 2010 Ivy Sports Symposium 26 Mathew Mullery 51 Compiled by Jake Makar
Daniel Halem Interview 51 Gabe Gershenfeld
Dissecting the New NFL Overtime Rules Why new rule changes extend the game and the debate
Ross Berger, CALS ‗14 & Joey Shampain, A&S ‗13 [email protected] & [email protected]
Introduction Team B must answer with a score of its with the increased skill of field goal kick- own, a touchdown winning the game or a ers have made the NFL overtime format The battle has lasted for 60 field goal resulting in a sudden death situ- unacceptable. minutes. The score is tied. The coaches ation. If Team A fails to score on its first This fact was evident in the 2010 prepare their players. The fans cross their possession, the next team to score wins. NFC Championship game, when the New fingers. The most important play of the These changes decrease the Orleans Saints beat the Minnesota Vi- game is underway. A flick of the ref‘s competitive advantage gained by a ran- kings in overtime by kicking a field goal fingers and it is… heads. dom coin toss, yet after a thorough analy- on their first possession. Brett Favre The NFL coin flip to determine sis, it is evident that further improve- threw an interception to end regulation; possession in overtime is one of the most ments and changes are still needed. his offense would never see the ball crucial plays in all of sports, and the play- again. The Saints won the coin flip in ers are not even on the field. Fans, play- Analysis of the Problem overtime and returned the ball to the 39- ers, and coaches have all had their gripes yard line. Thirty-nine yards later – com- about this act of chance that determines a The root of the NFL overtime posed of two questionable penalties total- game of skill and determination. This is dilemma is the increased skill of field ing 17 yards and a measly 22 yard offen- not only because the teams have no con- goal kickers. In 1974, the league field sive gain - Garrett Hartley converted a 40 trol over the outcome, but also because goal percentage was 60.6%; in 2008, this -yard field goal, which eliminated the statistically the team that wins the coin number increased to 84.5%. In 1974, 36% Vikings and sent the Saints to their first flip has a better chance of winning the of field goal attempts were from 40+ super bowl in franchise history. It took an game. Only 7 teams in the 36-year history yards; in 2008, this number increased to event of this magnitude to make the NFL of the NFL overtime system, encompass- 41%. These statistics prove that, ―in dec- realize that the current overtime system ing 445 overtime regular-season games, ades past, when teams kicked off from the was compromising the integrity of the have chosen to kick off rather than re- 35 or 40 yard line and when field goal game. After much controversy and de- ceive. In the past decade, there have been kickers were not as accurate as they are bate, league officials and the owners de- 158 overtime games. 96 times or 61% of today, starting overtime with the ball did cided to enact the new postseason over- the time, the winner of the coin flip won not offer much, if any, edge‖ (Leonhardt). time rules this past offseason. the game. 58 times or 37% of the time, In today‘s game, the the losing team‘s offense never touched kickoff is at the 30-yard the ball (Burke). Essentially the team that line and the current field wins the coin flip has 3:2 odds of winning goal kickers make field the game, which has caused years of de- goals of well over 50 bate and recently resulted in a rule yards meaning that the change. receiving team does not On March 23rd, 2010, NFL own- even have to drive half of ers voted by a margin of 28-4 to establish the field to get into scor- new overtime rules in the playoffs. In ing position. many ways the new system is similar to It is no secret the old one; there is a coin flip, a kickoff, that teams play for the and in many scenarios the game will re- field goal in overtime. vert back to sudden death. However, the Since 1994, 73% of over- new rules increase the likelihood of the time games have been kicking team getting a possession and the won by a field goal. The game does not necessarily end with the significance of 1994 is first score. that this is the year that Imagine this hypothetical situa- the NFL made a rule tion - Team A has won the coin toss and change, moving the kick- elected to receive the ball, while Team B off from the 35 to the 30- A Brett Favre interception, two questionable penalties, and must kick off. If Team A scores a touch- yard line. NFL rule unfair OT rules sent Drew Brees and the Saints to the down, it wins; if it scores a field goal, changes in conjunction 2010 Super Bowl. 4 Sports, Inc. NFL
Overtime Changes This percentage is possibly an touching the ball. overestimate when considering that the Overtime games are seemingly a kicking team will have use of all four rarity in the NFL, but according to Peter downs when they receive the ball after a King of Sports Illustrated, the NFL plays converted field goal. The chances of scor- 12 overtime games per season. Assuming ing improve drastically as this team has these games are randomly distributed, the 33% more downs available to them. This probability of any one game going into added down will increase the probability overtime is 4.7%; conversely, the chance of a score by the kicking team, which that a game will not go into overtime is further increases their odds to win. 95.3%. Raising this number to the 16th Although it is clear that the new power gives us 46.3% - the odds of a overtime rules are an improvement over team playing 16 consecutive games with- the old rules, they are far from a perma- out playing in overtime. However, this nent solution. The most pressing issue is means that the odds of a team playing in that the rules are only in place for playoff at least one overtime game in the regular games. The restriction of the rules to the Based on Burke‘s subsequent season, are 53.7%, and this number in- postseason limits the sample size and graph of Expected Point Value by Field creases with teams that make the hinders the league‘s ability to analyze Position, we created another proposal in playoffs. Overtime games are likely to how the winning percentages will change. which the receiving team must start with affect every team in the league at least On average, there are 1.2 playoff games the ball on their 15-yard line. At this once every other season, substantiating that are decided in overtime each year, so point on the field where a team has a ex- the importance placed on this aspect of within the next ten years we may see a pected point value of 0, there is essential- the game in a 16 game season when every total of 12 overtime games governed by ly no advantage of having the ball. There- game is critical. the new rules. This is clearly not a large fore, it would be wise for teams with rela- The main goal of the new system enough sample size for any noticeable tively stronger defenses to play defense is to reduce the advantage of the team trend to emerge. first, trying to ultimately win the field who wins the coin toss. At a recent meet- Additionally, the rules create position battle. Unfortunately, this pro- ing of the NFL‘s Competition Committee, new scenarios that coaches have never posal eliminates aspects of special teams Eric Winston, tackle for the Houston Tex- encountered, forcing them to make deci- and kickoff coverage, both of which are ans, stated the need for a change in a few sions without any true experience. For critical factors in football. words: ―They're trying to prevent the 45- example, on fourth down, a team within yard kick return, then a pass-interference field goal range will have to debate call, then kneeling on the ball on third whether to kick the field goal or go for down, then kicking an easy field the game-ending touchdown. Making goal‖ (King). According to Brian Burke these decisions for the first time should of Advanced NFL Statistics, the new not be during the postseason, when the rules somewhat succeed; he calculates outcomes of the games are most im- that the winning percentages in favor of portant. If the NFL feels their new rules the winner of the coin toss will move are the answer to the overtime dilemma, from 60/40 to 56/44. Burke uses calculat- why not extend them to the regular sea- ed drive outcome rates and a visual model son? Teams could then practice working to calculate the probability of certain sce- with the new rules and scenarios during narios. When multiplying through the the regular season. percentages on the chart below, the re- ceiving team is predicted to win only Alternative Solutions 56% of the time. Another solution that has gained The new rules were not the only some widespread support is an overtime proposed solution to the overtime debate. in which the first team to score six points One option was moving the kickoff up wins the game. This proposal is similar to from the 30-yard line to the 35 or 40-yard the new rules implemented by the league, line. This would decrease average starting but differs in some critical ways. The field position, lowering the likelihood of second team to touch the ball would not the receiving team scoring on its first necessarily have to match a converted possession. Due to more touchbacks, field goal to stay alive in the game. This teams would start more often at their own would increase their odds of winning the 20-yard line, where, according to the fol- game. However, if the receiving team lowing Brian Burke graph, there is an fails to score and the kicking team scores equal likelihood of both teams scoring a field goal, the game does not end which next. However, under this proposal, a could damage the kicking team‘s chances team can still drive down the field on its of winning. Other point totals have been first possession and kick a field goal to suggested, such as the first team to 4 win the game without the other team points, but the common flaw among all of Fall 2010 5 Dissecting the New NFL Overtime Rules these proposals is that football is not a period, not a race to score ten points. In player, every coach, and every owner has game controlled by a scoring require- the MLB, there are full innings played, a different perspective, which is why it is ment; rather it is a game controlled by a not a home-run derby to decide the win- tough to make changes in the system, but limited amount of time, which is the basis ner. This NFL overtime scheme proposes everyone agrees that modifications must of the argument for the final possible so- that the game continues as an extension be enforced. The proposals in this article lution. of regulation and the 10-minute limit are only a few of the countless possibili- Imposing a restriction on the should allow for more than one posses- ties for different overtime systems and it length of field goal is another poplar idea. sion as drives rarely last over 10 minutes. is imperative that pressure be put on As previously stated, the root of the NFL At most, the average time per drive is league officials and owners to make the overtime dilemma is the increased accu- about 3 minutes, so both teams should see necessary changes. racy of field goal kickers. Their ability to the ball in the overtime period. The only now kick field goals of well over 50 yards drawback to this proposal is that games Sources: has decreased the length of the field a would be considerably longer, increasing team must travel to score points. This the chances of an injury and causing a stir Burke, Brian. "New Proposed Overtime proposal would force teams to make it to among television networks. Rules." Advanced NFL Stats. 1 the opponent‘s 13-yard line or further to Mar. 2010. Web. 30 Nov. 2010. attempt a field goal, which would there- Conclusion
Ask editor-in-chief Jake Makar ([email protected]) to mail a hard copy of this or previous issues
Or read online at:
rso.cornell.edu/ilrsmc/magazine.php
6 Sports, Inc.
Minimum Age Restrictions in Professional Sports A tantalizing tango of antitrust and labor law
George Yorgakaros, ILR ‗11 [email protected]
From Reggie Harding (Detroit sports leagues stems from almost beauti- Pistons) in 1962 to Andrew Bynum (Los fully simple language from Section 1 of Angeles Lakers) in 2005, a basketball the Sherman Act of 1890, which reads: player who is drafted immediately out of high school makes news. Opponents ar- ―Every contract, combina- gued against this eligibility from two dif- tion in the form of trust or ferent angles: 1) that an eighteen year old otherwise, or conspiracy, player‘s physical development is not yet in restraint of trade or complete and the constant pressure to commerce among the sev- train and perform would have detrimental eral States, or with foreign effects on his future health; and 2) that nations, is declared to be drafting an eighteen year old would set a illegal." (15 U.S.C. § 1) precedent of crowding out the older play- ers in the league by replacing them with If one were to stop and think about the younger players. These opponents push language used above, one would say to for professional sports leagues to set min- themselves: ―Whoa! That is some sweep- When Senator John Sherman wrote the imum age restrictions for all athletes in ing language right there!‖ And that per- Sherman Antitrust Act in 1890, he probably the league. son would be correct. Simply reading the did not expect it to so profoundly affect the This route to oppose the employ- language above makes any contract business of professional sports. Dr. James ment of younger athletes is made by peo- where money changes hands illegal. For Naismith would invent basketball one year ple who do not understand the extent of example, any labor contract would be later. case law surrounding this very topic in illegal, as it restrains a firm from hiring the United States legal system. The fact an employee under specific terms and posed to professional sports leagues re- of the matter is that, subject to a ―rule of restrains an employee from seeking em- garding minimum age restrictions on reason‖ analysis, the antitrust laws of the ployment under those terms – the terms players by these two canons of diametri- United States prohibit leagues from set- themselves would, in theory, restrict cally opposed law. ting such a restriction. trade. Obviously the U.S. Congress did What makes an agreement bar- not intend to stop the formation of all A “Clar-ifying” Example ring players of a certain age illegal? How contracts and had more practical applica- did this come to be? How does it still tions in mind. Using this language as a The case of Clarett v. NFL not exist today? This article aims to answer guide, the U.S. courts have defined anti- only shows how the agreement between these questions by offering a concise his- trust law through cases, specifically aim- teams within leagues to only recruit play- tory of the antitrust laws in general and ing, above all, to preserve competition ers of a certain age is illegal, but also how these laws are applied to profession- and to protect American consumers while explains the only type of agreement a al sports leagues through a case study of maintaining a logistically feasible frame- league is actually allowed to make re- Clarett v. NFL. 306 F. Supp. 2d 379 work within which to decide cases. garding, well, anything. (2004). Additionally, a brief analysis of However, professional sports The facts of the case are pretty the law‘s potential implications on the leagues must define their employment simple. Prior to this case, all of the pro- decision for a players‘ union to decertify practices even more narrowly than within fessional football teams in the National is included. this framework. Because the players in Football League (hereafter, the NFL), But first, here is some back- the big four sports leagues are unionized, made an agreement that they would not ground information on the general body the leagues must tailor their practices to hire players for their teams that were less of antitrust legislation. be legal with regard to the aforemen- than three years out of high school. Mau- tioned antitrust laws and American labor rice Clarett was a star running back for What the Trust?! Some General Back- law which allows for concerted economic Ohio State who led the Buckeyes to a ground on American Antitrust Law behavior as long as it is in the context of a national championship his freshman year. collective bargaining agent (e.g. a union). After several incidents led to his dismis- The field of United States anti- The case of Clarett v. NFL (Id.) provides sal from school, he attempted to enter the trust law as it applies to professional an example of the ambiguous territory 2004 NFL draft a year before he was eli- Fall 2010 7 Minimum Age Restrictions in Professional Sports
After his dismissal from Ohio state following his freshman season, Maurice Clarette challenged the NFL‘s Draft eligibility rule under antitrust law. The court ruled in favor of Clarett, but the decision was overturned. He was later drafted, but never played a down. Un- fortunately, Clarett may be best known for his legal troubles since the end of his football career.
gible, as he felt he would have been re- So why is this case in court? Is it trade must be examined for a ―pro- cruited to play professionally without the not plainly obvious that this is a direct competitive justification.‖ minimum age restriction. violation of the Sherman Act? According to case law to date, Now you might be thinking: Think about the nature of the this is the only defense that will hold up ―but wait, the antitrust laws have to do ―product‖ described above: a football in court. Leagues must prove that whatev- with trade. How does this whole situation game. In order for this product to exist at er agreements they make actually encour- qualify as trade?‖ Consider each football all, some agreements must exist between age competition, not hinder it; the agree- team as a company buying raw materials the ―companies‖ that make it. Teams ments must be ―pro-competitive.‖ All to create a product. The product, in this must agree on rules for how the game is agreements necessary for the existence of case, is a football game. Continuing this to be played and to determine who wins. the product itself fall within this category. line of thought, imagine that each player Even more fundamental than the rules of In the same opinion, the Supreme Court is a company selling their labor as one of any sports game, the teams must agree to determined that all cases involving agree- the raw materials that go into creating the meet in order to compete; in other words, ments within leagues would have to un- product. Thus, the ―sellers‖ in the market you cannot have a game with only one dergo a deeper analysis to decide whether are the players themselves and the team. There must be agreements in order or not the agreement was pro- ―buyers‖ are competitive. the teams. This was only one of the argu- The facts of Because the players in the big four sports ments presented to the court in the case of the case leagues are unionized, the leagues must tai- Clarett v. NFL. One other argument is the then boil one that most people wrongfully believe down to the lor their practices to be legal with regard to is the justification for a minimum age teams com- antitrust laws and American labor law hiring restriction within a sports league – ing together which allows for concerted economic be- the fact that the demands of the sport, be and forming havior as long as it is in the context of a col- it in the game itself or due to the strenu- an agree- lective bargaining agent (e.g. a union). ous training regiment, could have adverse ment to boy- effects on the future health and well- cott the pur- being of the player. Hypothetically, imag- chase of a ine a coach seeing a 300 pound fifteen good, which violates the language in the to create the product. Such was the logic year old and thinking he could use that Sherman Act almost perfectly. This is that the Supreme Court followed in its person on his defensive line. If that player clearly an agreement in restraint of trade opinion in NCAA v. Board of Regents. were to be hit incorrectly during practice and thus in crystal clear violation of the 468 U.S. 85 (1984), the opinion that set or in a game, his future health would be antitrust laws. the precedent that all agreements within a compromised. Under the United States league that have some sort of impact on antitrust laws, a coach could technically hire that player. Why does this potentially 8 Sports, Inc. NFL moving argument have no bearing in the assault on the basic policy of the Sherman union membership agrees to keep young- court? Prior case decisions, while not Act.‖ (id.) Applying this rule to profes- er players from crowding out the older dealing directly with sports, address this sional sports leagues means that these players. question. leagues cannot justify agreements barring This legal strategy also carries In National Society of Profes- certain players from being employed on through to other North American profes- sional Engineers v. United States, 435 the grounds that it is in the players‘ best sional sports leagues. The NBA took U.S. 679 (1978) the ―for the public good interest. advantage of this same loophole as the argument‖ was raised. In that case, the At this point, allow me to re- NFL when they established the college attorney on behalf of a group of profes- mind you that the district court decided in ―one-and-done‖ minimum age restriction sional engineers argued that ―… bidding favor of Clar- with the on engineering services is inherently im- ett in Clarett N B A precise, would lead to deceptively low v. NFL. The P l a y e r s bids, and would thereby tempt individual NFL argued The NFL and NBA face a large risk Associa- engineers to do inferior work with subse- that their under antitrust laws if membership tion in quent risk to public safety and agreement to were to decertify their union t h e i r health‖ (id.). Translated, the argument is bar players of 2 0 0 5 that competition is bad in the industry and a certain age collective goes against the public interest by follow- p r o m o t e d bargain- ing the logic that by having engineers bid competition in that it was an agreement ing agreement. Under this agreement, against each other and creating a race to necessary for the ―product‖ to exist. The NBA players have to wait a full year after the lowest price, competition would actu- court disagreed and thus banned such the date of graduation from high school to ally encourage engineers to cut corners agreements (the case was appealed and be drafted. Likewise, the NHL has bar- during design and production and thus eventually reversed by the Court of Ap- gained for player minimum age eligibil- inherently harm the public. Justice Ste- peals of the Second Circuit on separate ity, and amateurs must be 18 years old vens refutes this argument in his opinion grounds). before September 15th of the year of the saying that it misinterprets the very point Now, having just read that sen- entry draft to be eligible. MLB is slightly of the Sherman Act, which forbids agree- tence, you may be saying to yourself and more complicated, because the courts ments in restraint of trade. Stevens says wanting to say to me: ―but wait! The have excluded MLB from antitrust legis- that nowhere within the law is there any NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB still have lation from 1922 in Federal Baseball discussion about protecting the public minimum age restrictions. What‘s the Club of Baltimore, Inc v. National League interest, only about protecting trade from story, George?‖ of Professional Baseball Clubs, 259 U.S. restriction. He writes: The story varies from league to 200 to 1998 when congress passed the league, reader. Curt Flood Act. Now that baseball has … [The Sherman Act] the same antitrust vulnerability as the prohibits unreasonable How Minimum Age Restrictions Can other sports, MLB agrees with their play- restraints on competition. Exist Today Despite What You Just ers‘ association to only draft high school [The Society of Profes- Read players and college players who have sional Engineers‘] ban on either completed their junior year or are competitive bidding pre- It is true the NFL is not allowed twenty-one (with some exceptions). vents all customers from to make such exclusionary agreements (as Teams are eligible to sign international making price comparisons mentioned earlier, all such agreements are players at sixteen years old, but this might in the initial selection of subject to ―rule of reason‖ analysis). change in the upcoming CBA negotia- an engineer and imposes However, this league did something very tions (see interview with MLB VP Labor, the Society‘s views of the clever to maintain the minimum age Daniel Halem ‘88, on page 58). costs and benefits of com- standard by taking advantage of a loop- What does this mean for leagues petition on the entire mar- hole in the antitrust laws. Earlier I men- and players today? Because of the mod- ketplace…it is this re- tioned that collective bargaining agents ern policies outlined above, the NFL and straint that must be justi- (unions) have a statutory exemption from NBA face a large risk under the antitrust fied…and [the Society‘s] antitrust restrictions under the National laws with respect to the restriction of attempt to do so on the Labor Relations Act and are allowed to players within the league. The risk arises basis of the potential threat conduct concerted economic behavior only if membership were to decertify that competition poses to such as strikes. The minimum age re- their union, which is a legitimate weapon the public safety and the striction is now a clause in the collective when current collective bargaining agree- ethics of its profession is bargaining agents‘ constitution and by- ments‘ term comes to a close. This deci- nothing less than a frontal laws between the NFL and the players‘ sion is a major one, as both management assault on the basic policy union. Under the National Labor Rela- and union membership lose the ability to of the Sherman Act. (id.) tions Act, organized labor has a blanket maintain the minimum age agreement antitrust exemption; any agreement or protection from the antitrust laws. This case set the precedent that arguing term made within the players‘ union con- that a restraint of trade is justified be- tract is immune from antitrust prosecu- cause it is in the public interest will not tion. The league bargains for the right to hold up in court and, in fact, is ―a frontal maintain the minimum age restriction and Fall 2010 9
Quantifying Succession Planning and Player Development What the HR nine-box can learn from baseball analysis, and vice versa
Gabe Gershenfeld, ILR ‗11 [email protected]
Baseball general managers may By categorizing employees according to not like to hear this, but they are essen- these four simple colors, an employer has tially glorified human resource managers. a quick tool to see which employees are If they paid more attention to this reality, most prepared to replace current leaders. they may be able to do their job better. If a company has a discrepancy in yel- Work performed in the Baseball lows and greens across different depart- Operations department of an MLB ments, then management may choose to team—player evaluation, coaching play- rotate high-potential leaders throughout ers, administrative filings, arbitration or re-evaluate their recruiting or training strategy, and contract negotiation—are The terms for each box may vary across strategy across departments. Brad Pat- transferable to those performed in corpo- companies, but are used to describe the rick, an EVP and Chief Human Resources rate human resources departments. Re- current status of the worker according to Officer at Tempur-Pedic International, place ―player‖ with ―employee‖ and his or her past performance and future writes that the nine-box helps to ―create a ―coaching‖ with ―managing‖ and drop a potential. Here is an example nine-box useful inventory of an organization‘s tal- couple zeroes off the salaries. A player count of 580 managers and executives ent and how the talent will move through trade can even be compared to mergers that could be typical of a Fortune 500 the organization‖ and ―provides a nice and acquisitions (for which HR depart- consumer goods company: linkage to both individual development ments play crucial roles), as the due dili- opportunities and identifying what needs gence that went into the Proctor & Gam- to be managed to satisfy organization ble and Gillette fusion was similar in capability needs.‖ scope for the Reds and Rangers in the The nine-box is clearly an im- Josh Hamilton / Edinson Volquez trade. portant personnel tool, but what are some The core issues in both business and of its flaws? Patrick says its static, point- baseball are similar, and the same funda- in-time inventory is limiting—the tool mental theories apply, but the practices needs to be maintained regularly and ac- between a Baseball Operations and Hu- curately in order to be effective. A green man Resources office often vary greatly. who is promoted only to be reclassified as This article explores these con- Note that this nine-box designated the a yellow or blue the next year is not un- cepts through a common Human Re- lowest performing workers as ―reds‖ and common. Did this employee‘s ―true‖ sources tool, the nine-box. What could the remaining medium- and high- growth potential really change with their Human Resources professionals learn performing workers as ―yellows‖, new job? An employee‘s nine-box label from applying the nine-box to baseball ―blues‖, and ―greens‖ according to their is sometimes determined through his or players? And what can the baseball in- growth potentials. Greens may be con- her supervisors and co-workers sitting dustry take away from corporate HR sidered the most desirable employees, but around a table, calibrating their opinions, practices? a successful organization requires the and coming to a consensus. Hard records proper mix of all colors to achieve their of performance criteria are sometimes The Nine-Box group‘s objective. This company catego- brought into the discussion, but determin- rizes much of its workforce as steady ing growth potential is often subjective The nine-box is a tool that HR yellows (69%) and blues (25.9%) to pass and can be self-fulfilling. If a boss professionals use to evaluate the talents of along the institutional knowledge in- doesn‘t think you will succeed, then you their current workforce and plan for suc- volved in producing and selling their probably won‘t—at least not at that com- cession. This three-by-three matrix labels mainstay products. In contrast, a compa- pany under that boss. workers into nine boxes, or four simpli- ny in the technology industry may be Furthermore, the evaluation cat- fied and condensed color categories. The more likely to be made up of high- egories are limiting. What is the exact horizontal rows denote a particular em- potential greens to innovate new prod- difference between a ―high‖ and ployee‘s performance trend as ―high‖, ucts. ―medium‖ performance? These catego- ―medium‖, or ―low‖, and vertical col- Besides providing a current ries are equivalent to categorizing all umns denote his or her growth potential snapshot of a company‘s talent, the nine- baseball players as ―subs‖, ―average play- in the same three ratings: box is a key tool for succession planning. ers‖, or ―all-stars,‖ for example. St. Lou- 10 Sports, Inc. MLB
mances of players most similar and com- parable to the player in question at the same age. Above-average performances are double-counted while below-average performances are counted as zero, thus rewarding those with the highest poten- tial. An upside score will thus always be positive, and can be interpreted as pro- jected VORP over approximately the next five years. In a February 1, 2007, article explaining the concept, former Prospectus author (and current Five Thirty Eight blogger) Nate Silver shared the following key: Upside Definition Score Can Red Sox GM Theo Epstein (left) really learn anything from fictional Dunder Mifflin 100+ Excellent Prospect—―strong HR Representative Toby Flenderson (right)? Their job functions in fact have many simi- chance of long major league larities, and tools from one field reveal valuable insights when applied to the other. career, perhaps with several All-Star appearances‖ is first basemen Albert Pujols and Oak- quick tool to quantify past performance. 50-100 Very Good Prospect— land pitcher Trevor Cahill were both vot- VORP measures ―the number of runs ―strong chance of meaningful ed onto the 2010 All Star Team, but any contributed beyond what a replacement- major league career‖ serious baseball fan would not say that level player at the same position would 25-50 Good Prospect—―reasonable their value was equal. The nine-box is contribute if given the same percentage of chance of a meaningful major meant to be a quick assessment, not a team plate appearances,‖ ignoring de- league career‖ thorough performance evaluation, yet the fense. The following is the distribution of 10-25 Average Prospect—―some strategic implications for the nine-box all 1,200 Major League players‘ VORP chance of a meaningful major mean that the input data must be carefully who were on a 40-man roster at the end league career, but more likely selected. of the 2008 season: to end up on fringe.‖ Most importantly, the 0-10 Marginal Prospect—―very ―performance trend‖ and ―growth poten- little chance of becoming a tial‖ variables are not independent. The major league regular‖ word ―trend‖ implies recent actions af- fecting the future, and thus would seem to This statistic is most relevant for minor overlap with that same employees‘ future league prospects and young major potential. Indeed, during nine-box meet- leaguers, but VORP and Upside data is ings at certain companies, evaluators gen- only available for the same set of 1,200 erally select the single color or nine-box Major Leaguers on a 40-man roster enter- they think seems correct, choosing perfor- ing the 2009 season. The following is mance trend and growth potential togeth- their distribution: er at once instead of separately. Inde- pendence, and an accurate portrayal, can only be found when past performance is This histogram spread is centered on zero separated from future potential. and skewed to the right, with a mean 8.4 runs, median 2.9 runs, and standard devi- A Baseball Perspective ation of 16.5 runs. Pujols led the majors with 99.1 runs produced over what a ge- Major League Baseball analysis neric ―replacement‖ AAA third-baseman provides another framework for formulat- could have been expected to produce, ing a more objective nine-box. Fans and while Rangers pitcher Luis Mendoza was professional analysts scrutinize player the worst at allowing 31.9 runs more than performance daily, and the segmented, what a ―replacement‖ AAA pitcher would individualistic nature of the game allows have (he had a 3-8 record and 8.67 ERA for attempts at all-encompassing value in 63.1 innings). The 64% of players Upside is strongly skewed right: mean of statistics that can be more objective than with a positive VORP are highlighted in 40.2, median of 19.2, and standard devia- qualitative performance reviews – meas- black. tion of 60. Numerous role-players and uring past performance and future poten- ―Upside‖ is another relevant older players had scores close to zero, tial in separate and more precise ways. Baseball Prospectus statistic; this one can while Hanley Ramirez had the highest Baseball Prospectus‘ Value Over be equated to future potential. This num- 2009 upside of 677.1. Only ten other Replacement Player (VORP) statistic is a ber is calculated through the past perfor- players had upside scores greater than Fall 2010 11 Quantifying Succession Planning and Player Development
300: Chase Utley (306.4), Tim Lincecum upside scores greater than 100 (9.8%). or boundaries, Carlos Gomez is a red and (316.0), Evan Longoria (317.6), Dustin Player labels are also added for select Jay Bruce is a green. The implications Pedroia (319.0), Brian McCann (321.4), data points in the scatter plot below. for these labels in succession planning Joe Mauer (344.9), Grady Sizemore In a corporate HR setting, this can drastically affect organizational strat- (349.9), David Wright (433.6), Jose data would suggest that Aubrey Huff is a egy, and so if the exact statistical differ- Reyes (517.4), and Albert Pujols (528.7). ―pro in place‖, Kevin Youkilis is a ―high ence between Gomez and Bruce (5.9 Any baseball fan would agree that these promotable‖, Jose Reyes is a ―high poten- VORP and 35.5 Upside differential) is young players would expect to have many tial‖, Cameron Maybin is a ―solid poten- not the same as between Mendoza and more productive future years at that point tial‖, and Luis Mendoza is need of an Pujols (131 VORP and 496.6 Upside dif- in time. ―organizational exit.‖ Manny and Hanley ferential), for example, why should With data on past performance Ramirez both had very comparable 2008 Gomez / Mendoza and Bruce / Pujols be for the 2008 season (VORP) and projec- performances in terms of total value, but put in the same boxes? The challenge is tions of future potential entering the 2009 Hanley (age 25) is in the fair right corner for HR departments to develop and im- season (Upside), one can combine these because he is expected to provide much plement similar performance and poten- variables in one scatter plot: more value over the next five years than tial measurements to quantify their talent Manny (age 37). What about all the so that evaluations can as precise and blank space on the bottom right triangle accurate. of the plot? This is where the minor Additionally, the upwards- leaguers would be—those with high up- skewed talent distribution in baseball side but low actual performance. Matt represents one of many ways true talent Wieters‘ 623.4 2009 Upside score is phe- can be distributed across any given popu- nomenal, but his minor league numbers lation. When HR professionals force translated to only a 7.1 VORP. He and employees into nine-box categories, they many other top and solid prospects are are making implicit assumptions about not included because they were not talent distribution across their workforce placed on the 40-man roster at the end of that may or may not be valid. the 2008 season with these other data From a labor economics per- The majority of players are clustered points. These minor leaguers are the spective, another important concept is the around the replacement level of zero and players most in need of ―performance replacement-level. In baseball, this is the minimal upside, with a spread upwards coaching‖ and time to mature. performance level of a AAA minor and to the right. To fully compare this What value does this exercise leaguer who would presumably make the spread to a corporate nine-box, the same provide for HR professionals? The key major league minimum salary (currently color codes are added according to sub- takeaway should be the difference be- $400,000 / year). In the corporate world, jective benchmarks: red for all players tween discrete and continuous perfor- this could be the talent of a worker a below replacement level (35.6% of all mance measurement variables. In the company could hire at the state or federal players), yellow for those remaining with traditional nine-box, an employee is (currently $7.25 / hour) minimum wage. upside scores below 50 (43.9%), blue for bounded into one of nine boxes, whereas The decision of whether to hire at this those very good prospects with upside baseball measures past and future perfor- level will affect the make-up of reds, yel- scores between 50 and 100 (10.8%), and mance quantitatively on a continuous lows, blues, and greens in any organiza- green for those excellent prospects with spectrum. According to the artificial col- tion. A baseball team made up of re- placement-level players will not win. Each company must determine whether replacement-level workers and managers can perform their work and provide the desired succession potential.
Next Steps
This practice of plotting past performance against future potential has key implications for comparing organiza- tions and quantifying player develop- ment. The plot on the upper left corner of the opposite page displays the same 2008- 9 data for the Chicago White Sox (in white) and the Cubs (in blue). The White Sox‘s Jim Thome is the yellow ―pro in place‖ and the Cubs‘ Rich Harden is the green player with the second-highest ‘08 VORP and ‘09 Up- side. All data points are generally dis- persed in the same upwards trend as the 12 Sports, Inc. MLB
plot for all major league players, but the sis of historical data can suggest typical However, these sports must be challenged White Sox seem to have more players on career paths for groups of players across to ―quantify the qualitative‖—in the same the upper left side (veterans) while the this Cartesian plane. A player‘s color at manner as HR professionals—so that a Cubs may have more players on the far any one point in time from this last plot more thorough story can be shared. right side (prospects). Such plots can be a can suggest previous performance and quick tool for comparing the spread of future career progression, from their Conclusion prospects and veterans across organiza- rookie growth (high upside, low value) to tions. What is the optimal distribution of career peak (high upside and value) to The concept of plotting quantita- talent for an organization? In 2008, the veteran decline (low upside and declining tive measures of past performance against Cubs finished with 97 wins and White value). However, unlike the nine-box, in future potential on two-dimensions is a Sox with 89, while in 2009 the Cubs won this model their color reflects their ―true‖ practice that has not been previously uti- 83 and the White Sox won 79. Further ability throughout their career, and does lized in either Baseball Operations or longitudinal research on the distribution Human Resources. The cross-sectional of talent across more teams can explore data used are limited, but such a frame- organizational optimality questions. A player‟s color at any work can give a more accurate succession What is the typical career pro- one point in time from picture as well open up new visual meth- gression for an individual player? These this last plot can suggest ods for baseball player development anal- 2008-9 data are snapshots of past perfor- previous performance ysis. Previous Sports, Inc. issues have mance and predicted performance at one documented the increasingly intercon- point in time, but historical VORP and and future career pro- nected world of sport and business: Vol- Upside data can show the progression of gression, from rookie ume 2, Issue 2 analyzed how MLB GMs one player over time. Then-37-year-old growth to career peak to are increasingly younger, better educated, DH Jim Thome hasn‘t always owned 33.3 veteran decline. less likely to have played professionally, VORP and 19.0 Upside; one can imagine and rising up with more analytical back- him as high blue first-basemen when he grounds (pp. 11-18), while Volume 2, hit 47 home runs for Philadelphia in not change depending on what career Issue 3 covered the value sports analysis 2003, as a green third-basemen when he stage they are currently in. It may also be holds to outside businesses at the 2010 hit .311/.450/.612 for Cleveland in 1996, worth noting that the geometric length of MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference and as a far-right red when he dominated the blue line is longer than yellow and (pp. 26-35). In a competitive climate, A-ball as 19-year old in the Appalachian red, as a blue or green player is expected true analytical innovation in both worlds and Carolina leagues. And just as Matt to enjoy a longer career than a yellow or must draw off each other to ―think out- Wieters and Hanley Ramirez have ad- red. The Baseball Prospectus PECOTA side the box.‖ vanced from the negative VORPs (red model is an empirical system to predict zone) they started their careers at, they future performance based on comparable The author presented portions of this can be expected in future years to contin- players, and such performance vs. poten- article in an Evolution of Sports Address ue providing strong value as they get old- tial historical / predictive plots can pro- at the 2011 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics er and their potential decreases. The ca- vide original and complementary career Conference. reer ―path‖ of each player will of course progressions visuals. be unique, but similar routes for similar This approach can also be ex- Sources: players can be expected. The plot on the tended to player analysis in other sports. upper-right superimposes potential career What is the career progression for an Email interview with Brad Patrick, paths for greens, blues, yellows, and reds NFL running back drafted out of college? 11/11/10 on the previous Chicago White Sox / Or a European soccer played signed by a http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ Cubs plot. professional team at age 12? In both of glossary/index.php?search=vorp Again, these lines and arrows are these sports, there may not already be http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ arbitrary designations, but further analy- VORP- or Upside-equivalent statistics. article.php?articleid=5836 Fall 2010 13
Comparing the Best Soccer Leagues in the World A „style of play‟ statistical breakdown
Professor Chris Anderson, Government [email protected]
Trying to follow top-level soccer and UEFA Europa League games over league to another is akin to moving from, while living in the U.S. isn‘t always so the past five seasons. UEFA‘s most re- say, the AFC East to the NFC West in easy. Sure, with MLS we now have a cent (2010) coefficients of the European American football. At the level of teams viable and high quality professional soc- leagues reveal the following hierarchy of and managers, the question is whether cer league in the U.S., and it‘s lots of fun leagues: the English Premier League performance measured in one environ- to go to MLS matches, especially in the (EPL), Spain‘s La Liga, Italy‘s Serie A, ment (speak: league) is comparable to new built-for-soccer stadiums. But the and the German Bundesliga are currently performance in another – no manager truth is that the very best soccer is still the top 4 leagues with some distance to wants to overpay for performance in a played in Europe and will be for some spare (with the leagues in France, Russia, league that‘s nothing like the one the time to come. So one of the perennial Ukraine, Romania, Portual, and the Neth- player is hired into. questions soccer fans have debated over erlands rounding out the top 10 leagues). One indicator of a league‘s qual- the years is which leagues are the very A closer look at the coefficients reveals ity may be how its teams do in head to best, and how you may be able to tell. To rough parity between the English and head competition with teams from other answer that question, UEFA, Europe‘s Spanish leagues (with coefficients around leagues in Champions League or Europa soccer governing body, has been in the 80) followed by Serie A and the Bun- League play. But there is surprising little business of measuring the quality of desliga (with coefficients around 65). else we know about how leagues com- leagues. This is meant to take some of the And this sounds about right; if you asked pare, and it is difficult to develop very subjective judgments out of the debate, soccer professionals – coaches and play- strong prior expectations about what the but more importantly, it helps UEFA de- ers – where they want to work, these are data might tell us about league differ- termine how many teams from each the leagues that would likely rank highest ences in style and quality. On one hand, league get a chance to participate in the in their minds. one might expect that leagues‘ results crown jewel of international soccer com- An important and interesting reflect different, perhaps national, styles petition, the UEFA Champions League. follow-up question for soccer analysts is of play and tactics. So, off the bat, one UEFA does this by calculating a whether the style and quality of play dif- might expect to see fewer shots on goal in so-called league ―coefficient,‖ which is fer across these four in important ways. countries like Italy and Germany that are determined by the results of the clubs of At the level of players, the question traditionally known for a more defensive the leagues in UEFA Champions League would be whether moving from one style of play than in countries like Eng- land, where teams have traditionally played a more physical game or Spain where a more open offensive possession- dominated game has predominated. On the other hand, one might argue that these leagues have become so thoroughly inter- nationalized from the youth academies up, with player and manager movement and the diffusion of soccer knowledge across Europe and the globe, that one wouldn‘t expect too many differences across the top leagues that could be at- tributed to ―national‖ styles and soccer cultures. In what follows, I report some data on league performance on offensive production and fouls and punishment to show that, while soccer at the very high- est level follows similar basic patterns, Statically, Bundesliga players shoot more than the other players in the Big Four; how- there also are some real differences across ever, this does not correlate to a higher goal percentage. the Big Four leagues of soccer. To make things comparable and recent, I examine 14 Sports, Inc. Soccer
data for the last five seasons – that is, at 2.9 goals per match). Overall, virtually rather than just shots on goal (the data for from 2005/06 to 2009-10. without fail, the four big leagues see the 2005-06 Bundesliga season are miss- slightly below 3 goals per average match. ing). To the left, we finally see some Offensive Production But teams can‘t score if they do more distinct differentiation among the not shoot, so what do the data reveal leagues, mostly with regard to the English First, above is a look at offen- about shots taken on goal (SOG) and Premier League. sive production across the leagues, meas- shots on target (SOT)? One thing to note Aside from the one notable out- ured by the number of goals and shots up front is that, in each of the four lier - Bundesliga clubs were particularly taken by teams per match. An obvious leagues, shots on target (SOT) and shots accurate in 2006-07 - the numbers of place to start is to look at the number of on goal (SOG) are (unsurprisingly) posi- SOT are quite similar, with one excep- goals scored per match. tively correlated with goals and wins. tion: accuracy has gradually and notably There is relatively little variation This means that the more teams shoot and gone up in the EPL where it is by now across years and leagues. Statistically the more accurately they shoot, the more highest among the four leagues. That is, speaking, these leagues are extremely they score and the more matches they there has been an increase in accuracy in ―well behaved‖ and it is difficult to detect win. Importantly, shots on target (SOT) the Premier League, along with the in- over time trends or cross-league differ- are more highly correlated with outcomes crease in shots taken. ences. Each of the leagues, on average, than shots on goal (SOG). Another way to see this is to sees slightly fewer than 3 goals each Here, again, we see that the calculate the shots on goal by shots on match each season. We observe the most leagues are remarkably similar to one target ratios - how many shots did teams stability in Serie A, which has only mi- another. On average, teams take about 25 have to take to yield shots on target? Here nute variation over time, and in the Bun- shots per match. Over the last five years, are the ratios, averaged over the past five desliga. The EPL and La Liga have seen the Bundesliga has been the most trigger- years: slight upward trends in goals, but data for happy league with 27.6 SOG, and the five seasons are probably not sufficient to EPL the least trigger-happy with 23.2. EPL: 1.87 say if these are long-term trends (the high Serie A and La Liga were in between at point came in La Liga‘s 2008/09 season 24.4 and 25.2, respectively. And the one Bundesliga: 2.46 notable anomaly Serie A: 2.58 seems to be Serie A in the 2005-06 La Liga: 2.79 and 2006-07 sea- sons with only These numbers show that the about 20 SOG. EPL clearly stands out: the league is more Overall, these are efficient than the other leagues when it small differences comes to shot accuracy and the difference around a similar to the other leagues is distinct. central tendency. While shooters in the EPL are slightly And fi- less trigger-happy than shooters else- nally, teams can‘t where, especially in recent years, they score unless they need fewer shots to create shots on target. actually hit the And when we combine the shots on target target, so below to trend with the accuracy ratio, it is clear the left are the that the EPL has outpaced the other numbers for shots leagues in recent years. Enough to say on target (SOT) that it is different from the other leagues? Fall 2010 15 Comparing the Best Soccer Leagues in the World
By and large, the EPL is quite similar to Fouls and Cards suggests fewer interruptions to the game the other leagues - so far as goals and in Germany and England than Italy and overall shots are concerned - but hitting Another way to evaluate the Spain or conversely, a more fluid, contin- the target is one of the things that make it style of play is to consider how many uous style of play. Over the 2005/06- distinct. fouls teams commit or how much punish- 2009/10 seasons as a whole, the average When we put all these things ment referees have to mete out. These can numbers of fouls per match were: together in the one graph above to show be taken as indicators of style of defen- the various ratios of goals and shots sive play in the case of tactical fouls in- (overall and on target), the distinctions tended to interrupt the flow of the game, EPL: 24.63 among the leagues become more obvious but also of how physically tough and dan- Bundesliga: 36.46 (using data from the 2009-10 season). gerous a league is. When counting up Serie A: 35.09 Across the Big 4, the goal/shot fouls, however, there‘s a thorny defini- ratios are virtually identical and reminis- tional issue. The official statistics we La Liga: 37.41 cent of Charles Reep‘s ratio of 1 goal in have from box scores and various other nine shots on goal (.111) (Reep and Ben- published sources include only fouls that jamin 1968). Despite this essential simi- are called by the referee, not necessarily Again, the EPL looks distinctly larity, there are sizable differences in shot those that were committed. Counting how different from the rest of the pack (the accuracy and conversion efficiency across many times referees blow the whistle for low foul totals for the Bundesliga shown them. In fact, the EPL and La Liga could- a foul and a card is not the same as count- in the graph are virtually entirely due to n‘t be more different despite their virtual- ing actual fouls or correct punish- the fact that there are fewer teams [18] ly identical goal/shot ratios. In the EPL, ment. Assuming that too many fouls and therefore matches played in that we see lots of high value shots (the high- called on any one team we would ran- league). Clearly, fewer fouls are called in est SOT/Shots ratios), but low conversion domly draw from a hat cancel out too few the Premiership. The data show that play (the lowest goals/SOT ratios). In La Liga, called on another drawn from a hat, above is interrupted just for a foul (aside from we see the lowest proportion of accurate to the right is the total number of fouls all the other interruptions that happen in a shots, but the highest conversion rates. called over the past Finally, the Bundesliga and Serie five seasons. A are similar to one another in that they As the have more accurate shooting than in La data show, there is Liga, but lower conversion rates than the quite a range in Spanish league. how busy referees These findings suggest that the are. The totals quality of forward play in the EPL is range from fewer higher in that teams manage to take more than 9,000 fouls accurate shots (though EPL strikers, on called in the average, take fewer shots overall). At the 2008/09 EPL sea- same time, La Liga play stands out offen- son to almost sively because of the high conversion rate 15,000 in the we see in the league. Whether this is due 2005/06 La Liga to better goalkeeping in EPL or weaker season and the (though accurate in the sense of hitting 2007/08 Serie A the goal) shooting in the EPL cannot be season. Among answered with these data. other things, this 16 Sports, Inc. Soccer match) every 3.5 minutes in the Premier League and every 2.5 minutes in the other leagues. At the level of individual teams, this means that teams in the Premiership are called for fouls an average 12 times per match, while teams in the other three big leagues foul a whopping 50% more at an average of about 18 times per match. This statistic is particularly interesting in light of the fact that commentators com- monly talk about the alleged physical play in the EPL. Perhaps by that they mean that fouls are committed as often there as elsewhere but simply not called as much. This could be the case, of course, or there may simply be fewer fouls in the Premiership than anywhere else. Along with fouls, does football punishment get meted out equally across leagues? One easy way to see if there are Chelsea FC celebrates their 2009-2010 Premier League Championship. patterns and to quantify their size is to look at yellow cards - a common enough league is unclear, but punishment is clear- fewer delays on the field because of yel- occurrence in a match to yield some inter- ly not meted out equally. We see consist- low cards awarded, and shots on goal are esting and sufficient data. So below are ently more yellows over the years in significantly more likely to be accurate, trends in yellow cards since the 2005-06 Spain and Italy than in England and Ger- though less likely to find their target season per team/match. many. We also see the fewest yellow when they are accurate, than in the other Overall, teams see about two cards in the EPL, consistent with the pat- three leagues. Taken together, this sug- yellows per match played. But clearly, tern of fouls called. gests a faster, more continuous, and more referees in some leagues more easily pull exciting pace of play that viewers value. out the card than in others. In particular, For players coming into the league, this refs in La Liga give significantly more They’re the Same, Except When suggests that players cannot count on refs yellows than refs in the Premier League, They’re Not, and the English Premier to stop play, and the ability to keep going but also than in Serie A, a league with League Really Is Different despite a tackle or challenge from the similar foul totals. La Liga‘s 2.5 yellows opposition is a key ingredient for EPL per team/match easily dwarf the Premier- The data reviewed above pro- success. As well, EPL managers will be ship‘s roughly 1.5 cards. Whether this vide some descriptive evidence for two on the lookout for accurate shooters more reflects differences in playing style, in- basic conclusions. First, the highest quali- than managers in other league as well as structions from the league, training of ty soccer leagues in the world are remark- defenders and goalkeepers who know refs, or more skillful diving in Spain‘s top able similar in important ways. On com- how to play together to turn away accu- mon metrics of rate shots after they‘ve been taken (for offensive pro- example, after set play like a corner or duction like free kick). goals scored, Next time you have a chance to shots on goal, watch a Premier League and Serie A or the goal to match side by side, see if your own eyes shot ratio, the confirm what these data just told you. But leagues are the beauty of the game and whether this is very similar. better soccer, lies in the eyes of the be- But lurking holder. underneath these basic For more information on soccer analytics metrics we see and more detailed comparisons across that the English leagues and teams, check out the author‟s Premier League blog at www.soccerquantified.com. is different from the rest in Source: key ways: play is interrupted Reep, C. and Benjamin, B. (1968). Skill less frequently and chance in association foot- David Beckham and AC Milan argue the issuance of yellow card in because of ball. J. Royal Statistical Society Serie A play. fouls, there are A 131: 581-585. Fall 2010 17
Soccer‟s Defensive Evolution Strategy and statistics from Herrera catenaccio to modern catenaccio
Ramzi BenSaid, ILR ‗13 [email protected]
Introduction history. The one unifying quality that Compare these with the 1958 they all have is the sweeper; a final de- World Cup winning Brazilian team seen Soccer (football, futbol, whatev- fender behind the actual defensive line. below-left. Brazil‘s 4-2-4, is clearly a er you call it) has for many years been more attacking minded formation; the referred to as ―The Beautiful Game‖. fact that they frequently pushed their out- Though the laws of the game apply eve- side backs forward giving them 8 attack- rywhere, different styles of play seem to ing players just emphasizes Brazil‘s at- spring up in different parts of the globe. tacking ideals. The various different styles from around The famous Dutch ―Total Foot- the world have battled each other for ball‖ system employed throughout the years, literally. From the likes of Pele, 70s, which led the Netherlands to the Garincha and free form Brazil, to Johan 1974 World Cup Final is also seen below. Cruyff and the Dutch Total football sys- While only diagramed in their defensive tem different areas of the world have half, the ―Total Football‖ 4-3-3 was built been known for their own styles of play. on players switching positions for spurts One system, bred in Italy, the infamous, throughout the game; full backs were ―bend but don‘t break‖, defensive-minded almost equally creative and offensive, catenaccio formation (in which a sweeper going forward as the wingers and striker or ―libero‖ plays directly in front of the and were encouraged to do so. keeper), though in many ways extinct has Though very few teams still use made a comeback and a new, modern day the sweeper in their everyday formation; catenaccio mindset has come about. the mindset associated with having one While some people can appreci- extra defensive line is being seen more ate a hard fought, defensive battle, the and more. The mindset, and correspond- majority of fans like goals, and lots of One version, a 1-3-3-3 can be ing styles of play, rather than the specific them. Though soccer has been growing in seen above. However this is far from the formation are what I am considering popularity in the United States as the only formation; some played 1-4-3-2, the ―modern day catenaccio‖. MLS grows and the national team suc- real key is the 1 starting the formation ceeds on the international stage, many description with the sweeper. pundits still claim it bores them due to a lack of goals. Unfortunately these offen- sive purists will probably not be swayed any time soon as this modern day caten- accio becomes more popular among the highest levels of soccer thanks in part to its success in high levels of international competitions. This shift would be seen in statistics such as goals scored and cards given in competitions like the World Cup. In general, a defensive game will have fewer goals and more cards given, thus a trend showing a decreasing number of goals and an increasing number of cards would support this theory.
History
There have been many different versions of Catenaccio used throughout 18 Sports, Inc. Soccer
Statistical Analysis
The World Cup is arguably the most famous competition in sport, and thus makes a great place to start looking for developments of modern day catenac- cio. A defensive game generally consists of low scoring, a lot of fouls and thus cards, and concentrated possession (specifically meaning low possession numbers in the attacking third). Starting with number of goals, looking only at World Cups since the end of World War II (there has been one World Cup every four years since 1950), this figure has been erratic. The highest value came in 0.3972x + 0.8771, meaning that since the First looking at the 2004 European Cham- 1954 when the average was over 5 goals 1970 World Cup and the first time that pionship, which Greece won scoring only per game, the highest tally since has been cards were used, the number given per seven goals in six games. In the knockout just short of 3 goals per game in 1970. game has been increasing by 0.3972 per rounds (quarterfinals through to the final) More recently, since there was an average World Cup. the Greeks won each game 1-0, defending of 2.711 goals per game at the American Most likely the best indicator of furiously, seemingly only worried about World Cup in 1994, the figure has been a defensive minded game is possession; keeping a clean sheet. on a steady decline, reaching a low of where each team had most of their pos- In the recent past, even teams 2.265 at the World Cup this past summer session and how much of the overall that known for their offense have been resort- in South Africa. A fitting trendline with is. For instance, just because a team had ing to this modern catenaccio. One exam- this data of y = -0.1224x + 3.964 shows 60% of possession does not mean that ple would be Chelsea in the Champions that since the 1950 World Cup, the num- they dominated. A team with only 40% of League Semi Final in 2009 against FC ber of goals per match has decreased by the overall possession, but that had 50% Barcelona; two world-class clubs, mainly 0.1224 goals every World Cup of their possession in the attacking third heralded for their offense. In the first leg Another statistic that shows the shows a much more offensive minded at Barcelona‘s Camp Nou, Chelsea elect- overall style of soccer being played is team. Unfortunately this data has not ed to leave top striker Nicolas Anelka on cards per game. However, when looking been kept beyond a few years ago and the bench, leaving Didier Drogba up front at cards given, World Cups before 1970 thus cannot assist here. as a lone striker. The first leg ended a cannot be looked at because although success for Chelsea, as Barcelona was cautions (yellow cards) and expulsions Clinical Analysis kept scoreless at home for the first time in (red cards) were given, the colored cards any competition that season. had not yet been introduced. While the While an increase in defensive Even more recently, the 2010 2010 World Cup did have a lower num- minded play in the World Cup can be World Cup showed modern day catenac- ber of cards given than the 2006 World seen statistically with these numbers, a cio. In the final were the Spanish, who Cup, the overall trend has been a steady clinical, less numerical approach can also like the Greeks from 2004 won each of increase peaking with the 2006 World show such development. Looking at the their games in the elimination round 1-0. Cup in which over five cards per game successful teams in world soccer‘s most On this run they managed to keep Cris- were given. The fitting trendline with this high profile tournaments can show this; tiano Ronaldo (viewed by many as the statistic shows an even greater increase the UEFA Champions‘ League, the Euro- best player in the world) and Portugal, than goals per game. The trendline is y = pean Championship and the World Cup. Paraguay and Germany (the highest scor- ing team in the tournament) scoreless. Opposite the Spanish in the final were the Dutch, the second highest scoring nation in the World Cup with the likes of Robin van Persie, Arjen Robben, Wesley Sneijder, Rafael van der Vaart and Dirk Kuyt in attack. However, in the final they played a defensive 4-5-1 (with both Mark van Bommel and Nigel de Jong playing defensive midfield) allowing the Spanish to attack relentlessly. The tactic seemed to be working until in the last four minutes of the second period of extra time Spain finally found a break through. The tactics employed in the final show the Dutch adapting to defend against a perceived stronger Spanish side, and the Fall 2010 19 Soccer’s Defensive Evolution
Spanish adapting to attack a defensive minded Dutch team. The saying, ―defense wins championships‖ has been around for years, so why in soccer‘s past did more offensive teams win more trophies? Since expanding to 16 teams in 1996, only the Greeks in 2004 managed to win the Euro- pean Championship without reaching double digits in goals. Since the World Cup reached 32 teams in 1998, Spain were the only winners not to score at least twelve goals in the seven matches each winner must play. Simply put, what is it that has changed relatively recently in soccer to warrant these results
Conclusion
The catenaccio system was adapted from the Swiss‘ favored verrou system by Nereo Rocco in the 1950s, only to be taken and made famous by Helenio Herrera, the manager of Interna- In the 2010 World Cup Final, the Spanish used the catenaccio style with success. zionale in the 1960s. Since that time, many teams have employed the defensive modern football in general is the shift of relied on Esteban Cambiasso, as 2008 minded approach successfully. However, the sweeper/libero and bringing that de- European Championship winners Spain the biggest change from the Herrera ca- fensive assistant from behind the defend- relied on Marco Senna, as Chelsea now tenaccio to the modern catenaccio, or ers to in front of them-the central defen- use Michael Essien, Barcelona use Javier sive midfielder (CDM) or Mascherano, Arsenal use Alex Song, and ―Makalele role‖(Named countless other teams from the top for Claude Makalele who leagues down to the youth teams use a seemingly perfected it). central defensive midfielder as cover for The philosophy of old their defensive line. This positional shift time catenaccio was that is one explanation for the trends showing the sweeper would be decreasing numbers of goals scored and able to keep anything that increased numbers of cards given in the beat the defenders from World Cup and the overall increase in getting to the keeper. The defensive minded soccer being played at new CDM ideally keeps all levels. anything from getting to the defenders at all. It Sources: seems that this change; bringing the isolated cen- http://en.wikipedia.org/ tral defender from behind wik- the defensive line to in i/1982_FIFA_World_Cup_Final front of it and its corre- http://en.wikipedia.org/ sponding success has wik- caused the mindset i/1974_FIFA_World_Cup_Final changes discussed above. http://library.thinkquest.org/27353/ This transition means english/formations/form1.html that more of the game is http://www.thedugout.tv/community/ played in the middle third showthread.php?t=67459 of the field as opposed to http://scoreshelf.com/bkcs/en/World_Cup end-to-end soccer, which http://img.dailymail.co.uk/i/ generally produces more pix/2007/04_03/ goals. While this cannot kyut_468x380.jpg apply to soccer universal- http:// ly it seems that the CDM spanishdilettan- Claude Makelele has played the central defensive mid- is all over soccer. Cham- te.files.wordpress.com/2010/07/ fielder position so well, that it is sometimes called the pions League 2009-10 uglyfootball.jpg?w=500&h=556 ―Makalele role‖ winners Interazionale 20 Sports, Inc.
Football as America‟s New Pastime Storylines as the gridiron stole the crown
Alfonse Muglia, ILR ‗14 [email protected]
As the New York Jets wrapped triggered the transition also came in 1970, While baseball had increased up a victory over the Oakland Raiders last when Rozelle led football‘s move to popularity in the early 1900s by entering October, Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez primetime television with the launch of directly into American homes via radios sat on the sideline holding the future of Monday Night Football. This weekly and newspapers, the evidence above sug- American sports in his hands. With every broadcast brought the gridiron into the gests that television would lead the secretive bite the quarterback took of a homes of the growing television market. charge in connecting Americans to their precious hotdog, baseball disappeared By moving to primetime, football was sports in the latter part of the century. from its long-held post as ―America‘s made available to more American fami- With regard to national coverage, football pastime.‖ Nearly a century earlier, fellow lies. As Rozelle put it himself, ―There are appeared to have grabbed the advantage New York superstar Babe Ruth had set a lot more TV sets in use on Monday and maintained it. By 2009, national tele- the foundation for a century-long sports night than on Sunday afternoon.‖1 In his vision network giants – CBS, FOX, NBC, culture dominated by baseball. In addition biography Commissioner: The Legacy of ESPN, and the NFL Network –combined to his extraordinary talent, Ruth‘s love of Pete Rozelle, John Fortunato praises the to pay $3.085 billion for the rights to air hotdogs, soda pop, and beer gave his commissioner‘s understanding of the tele- the year‘s football games.4 In the baseball sport a personable appeal, bringing huge vision market. ―Rozelle knew that the market, only FOX, ESPN, and TBS pur- crowds to enormous stadiums and large frontier often began with television. sued broadcasting games on a national revenues to top executives. Mark scale in 2009. Sanchez‘s hotdog changed everything. The transition would progress to The sport of our fathers, and of their fa- its second symbolic stage in 1992, when thers, was about to take the back seat. television ratings for the Super Bowl dou- Sanchez had personally grabbed the bled those of baseball‘s World Series for torch, claiming football as America‘s new the first time and would continually do so glory sport. Let‘s hope he didn‘t get any for the next 18 years. mustard on his hands along the way. Since its origin in 1967, the Su- Sanchez‘s actions can be seen as per Bowl has dominated baseball‘s World a symbolic icing on the cake of a transi- Series in television ratings, as the graph tion from baseball to football as Ameri- on the following page suggests. Ratings ca‘s national pastime that was decades in for the World Series, meanwhile, have Commissioner Pete Rozelle‘s leadership the making. I propose that this transition through the NFL-AFL merger helped been puttering in the modern era, after its can be simplified into five basic events, launch American football as a commercial peak in 1980. With regard to the Super which symbolically represent the nation‘s power. Bowl, the thrill that comes with knowing growing admiration for football: Monday that this one game decides the world Night Football, championship ratings, champions can‘t be overlooked. The com- culture, expansion, and public opinion. Knowing that it is the league‘s greatest mercial culture established by television By the end of the 20th century, baseball source of revenue and exposure, Rozelle marketing came together to create the had lost its post, due in large part to exec- was always conscious of how the game largest sports day of the American year. utive decisions that failed to adjust to the was presented through the medium.‖2 With about one hundred million Ameri- times. Monday Night Football is currently the cans guaranteed to be watching televi- With the combination of the second longest running show on prime- sion, large corporations have taken a National Football League (NFL) and the time, behind 60 Minutes.3 stake in the game. Commercial giants like American Football League (AFL) in Major League Baseball, mean- PepsiCo, Frito Lay, and Budweiser would 1970, football was officially on the map. while, had started airing its Game of the soon compete for air-time and by 2009, a The emerging NFL instantly doubled fan Week, in the 1950s. This program, how- 30 second commercial sold for an average support, and executives were faced with ever, was traditionally aired on Saturday of $3 million.5 precedent-setting decisions. Commission- afternoons. A national move to primetime Seeing the enormous revenues of er Pete Rozelle was revolutionary in his wouldn‘t come until 1990 with the launch the football television market, rival enter- influence in increasing the popularity of of Sunday Night Baseball. By that point, tainment industries got the idea and start- the league and the sport. the NFL had expanded its primetime cov- ed putting their investments toward foot- The first event that unofficially erage to Sunday nights as well. ball in dreams of big profits. The movie Fall 2010 21 Football as America’s New Pastime industry is one example. As the second graph on the right suggests, sports movies throughout the 20th century have reflected the ideology of most Americans – pre- dominately baseball movies in the early part of the century, marked by a steady increase in football films until the latter finally became the top-revenue maker at the turn of the century. By 2009, The Blind Side would be the highest-grossing sports film of all time. Football fans had found their feel-good film, like baseball fans found in classics like Field of Dreams and A League of Their Own a generation earlier. This tendency can mark the third event of the transition, where, at the turn of the century, American families put more of their hard earned dollars and pre- cious time toward football than baseball. In this way, football‘s influence was firm- ly expanding beyond the playing field and into American culture. Football‘s influence has spanned into other areas of interest as well. Ac- cording to Google‘s Ngram tool, which charts a word‘s relative frequency in all books published between 1500 and 2008, the word ―football‖ has been published more than the word ―baseball‖ in every year since the 1800s. It is important to note that some of these references are likely with regard to the football as the rest of the world know it – ―soccer‖ to Americans. Nevertheless, the graph to the right comparing the frequency of ―MLB‖ verse ―NFL‖ shows the latter‘s domi- nance in the world of literature in the second half of the 20th century.6 This idea is reflected in attend- Relative Word Frequency in Books ances at regular season football games in Source: Google Ngram comparison to those of baseball. Enor- mous stadiums, seating up to 70,000 fans (20,000 more than any of their baseball counterparts) helped football become a large spectator sport. The nation respond- ed, filling stadiums to their capacity year in and year out. In 2008, for example, while the Tampa Bay Rays were en route to their first World Series appearance in franchise history, their stadium averaged 52.8% capacity. Meanwhile football‘s Tampa Bay Buccaneers were en route to a 9-7 season where they missed the playoffs. Nevertheless, in the same mar- ket, the Buccaneers averaged 98.3% ca- perhaps it is this lengthiness of the base- football than baseball. In Tennessee, the pacity. More Tampa residents were de- ball season that has deterred fans from Titans have sold out every home game voted football fans. spending the money to go to the stadium since opening LP Field in 1999 in the Granted, football could never on a weekly basis. same market that has never housed a Ma- surpass baseball in sheer attendance over In cities and states across the jor League Baseball (MLB) team. the course of the year, given the differ- country, the story was similar. More The transition is brought to its ences in schedule length. Then again, Americans expressed interest in watching fourth event in 1999, when Americans 22 Sports, Inc. NFL
sport. Football has progressively estab- lished itself as the destined glory sport of America. While one cannot discount the influence of baseball during its prime, the only films akin to Field of Dreams that one can expect in the upcoming decades will be shot not on the baseball field, but on the gridiron. Mark Sanchez later apologized to his fans and teammates for eating the The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (left) attracted much more demand than the Rays (right) hotdog. He should have apologized to the in 2008, despite the Rays‘ surprising success. baseball legends for officially dethroning their sport. were given more markets to enjoy watch- (like most sports of the modern era) Sources: ing football over baseball. With the watched the increased use of steroids and reestablishment of the Cleveland Browns other performance-enhancing drugs. Selig Carter, Bob. ―Rozelle made NFL what it franchise in 1999, the National Football was slow to act and by 2007 the effects of is today.‖ 2007. ESPN. 11/12/10 League had its 31st team, thus surpassing the ―Steroid Era‖ were felt, fostering an
Street League Skateboarding Marketing an extreme sport to a mainstream audience
Jake Makar, A&S ‗13 [email protected]
In the world of skateboarding, Such major competitions as there is perhaps no figure more prominent the X-Games and the Dew than Rob Dyrdek. As an entrepreneur and Tour also feature BMX and reality TV star, he has extended his influ- divide skating into ―Vert‖, in ence beyond skateboarding, the sport that which skaters perform tricks served as a launching point for his career. on a half-pipe ramp, and Dyrdek is an ambassador for the sport, ―Street‖, in which a course is and his efforts to create safe skating ven- made to simulate an urban ues for kids through his charity ―Safe environment. In addition to Spot Skate Spot‖ are well documented. this lack of focus on street However, now Dyrdek is attempting to skating, skaters perform heats take skateboarding one step further, and simultaneously, so that multi- revolutionize it as a sporting competition. ple skaters are all performing Dyrdek‘s latest venture, Street tricks on the same course, at League Skateboarding, is an attempt to the same time. Dydek finds Rob Dyrdek has seen his influence as a skater grow broaden skateboarding‘s appeal to all this arrangement to be fan- over the past few years and is now trying to use that sports fans. The league makes major de- unfriendly and believes Street influence to change professional skateboarding. partures from traditional skateboarding League Skateboarding can competition, whose attempts to compro- remedy the shortcomings of its predeces- Dyrdek‘s new scoring system and compe- mise ―true skateboarding‖ with contest sors. tition format allows the score to stay clos- skateboarding have been, as described by Every one of the innovative for- er for longer, creating situations in which Dyrdek himself, ―fragmented and mis- mat changes Dyrdek has implemented are a single trick can sway the outcome of the guided‖ (―Street League Skateboarding aimed at primarily towards adding drama competition. In close contests, the last On Tour‖). The most noticeable change and suspense to the competition in order round of tricks can be compared to the in the format is that rather than skaters to enhance the spectator experience. Ex- last two minutes of a football game, or a performing for one-minute heats, they tensive research has found a relationship buzzer beating shot. Dyrdek‘s format perform tricks one after the other and are between sports enjoyment and drama and allows for this suspense in a way that is instantly scored according to difficulty, Dyrdek‘s changes are well in-line with simply impossible in a traditional format. innovation and circumstance (Street these findings (although it would not be Additionally, Dyrdek‘s new system cre- League). Each trick is comparable to a surprising if he came up with his ideas ates ―all this immense data that starts to intuitively through years of develop, like average landed trick score, experience as a sports fan and consistency ratings, most accumulated Dyrdek‟s format allows for this skateboarder). More specifical- points in the history of the league,‖ which suspense in a way that is simply ly, research clearly shows a naturally creates favorites and underdogs relationship between factors (Polk). The Street League format is much impossible in a traditional format. such as ―expectations of a friendlier to the possibility of upsets and win… and potential for a loss‖ presents the contest in an exciting way. as a source of enjoyment Before Street League Skateboarding, a possession in sports like basketball or (Raney 442). For example, if a competitor contest comparable to the Butler-Duke football. The viewer can easily under- isn‘t expected to win, a win elicits more National Championship game in the 2010 stand the significance of a single trick enjoyment for the fan. Similarly, research NCAA basketball tournament – a game because every attempt has a potential to has demonstrated that ―the cumulative that came down to the final possession – change the standings instantly. The for- time (in seconds) that a NCAA men's would never have been possible in skate- mat allows the competition to develop basketball tournament game score was boarding competition. more evenly and therefore form a plot. extremely close is a powerful measure of Dyrdek‘s ability to make his In its current form, skateboard- perceived suspense and predictor of over- brainchild immediately legitimate and ing is a sport that is lumped with other all enjoyment‖ (Raney 443). Previously, viable is nothing short of remarkable. The ―extreme‖ or ―alternative‖ sports, rather these elements were absent from profes- Street League has signed no less than 24 than billed as an attraction unto itself. sional skateboarding competition. of the world‘s top skaters to multi-year 24 Sports, Inc. Skateboarding contracts including 2009's Dew Tour Dyrdek‘s tinkering will ultimately play ture of action sports‖ especially consider- Champion and Thrasher's Skater of the out in the market. The changes run the ing ―the marketing pull of Rob Year, Chris Cole (―Street League Skate- risk of alienating the ―hard-core‖ portion Dyrdek‖ (Mickle). Stiepock seems to be boarding On Tour‖), 2009‘s Dew Tour of the fan-base who will likely complain suggesting that if Dyrdek, for all his mar- Runners-Up, Chaz Ortiz and Paul Rodri- that many of the top skaters ―sold out‖, keting and business acumen, is unable to guez (―Dew Tour Standings‖), and Pro- though it seems unlikely. Dyrdek has put make this league work, there is little hope fessional Skaters-turned- for any professional entrepreneurs-turned-reality skateboarding league. TV stars Terry Kennedy and “[Street League Skateboarding is] a real test None of this seems to Ryan Sheckler (Street of street skateboarding and a true test for the bother Dyrdek who has League). As Chris Cole de- future of action sports” declared that ―It‘s virtual- clared in an interview, ―Every ly impossible for [Street single dude out here is the best — Chris Stiepock, X-Games General Manager League Skateboarding] at something‖ (Street League not to succeed‖ (Mickle). Highlights). The attraction for Whether it does or not, many of the stars of the sport is likely together a seemingly strong marketing Dyrdek has done an impressive job put- both the huge purse offered by the Street campaign that included a series of com- ting it in the best possible position to real- League – 1.2 million dollars and the larg- mercials that highlighted the absurdity of ize its potential. est in the history of professional skate- the current skateboarding competition boarding – and a revenue-share program format by portraying other sports as if Sources: that entitles each skater to a percentage of they were played under a similar arrange- merchandise and media rights sales ment. For example, one commercial won- "Dew Tour Standings." Alli Sports. (Mickle). In exchange, each skater has dered if people would watch if the shoot-
The 2004-05 NHL Lockout Was it financially beneficial for the league?
Matthew Mullery, ILR ‗12 [email protected]
Prior to the start of the 2004-05 across the league. From the NHL‘s finan- more entertaining to watch. The most National Hockey League (NHL) season, cial perspective, was it worth it? obvious rule change was the institution of professional teams were able to buy and One cannot fairly or definitively the shootout. No one likes when a game sell players as they saw it fit through the measure the psychological effects of this ends in a tie and the new shootout format process of free agency. This system sig- lost season on fans and players. Howev- ensures that in the NHL there will be no nificantly advantaged teams with greater er, this article compares changes in NHL more ties. As the penalty shot is widely revenue streams and prompted frivolous salaries paid and revenues received from regarded as one of the most exciting spending. The result was a high level of before (2003-04 season) and after (2005- events in hockey, this new format makes payroll disparity across the league and its 06) the lockout to provide a preliminary the NHL more appealing to fans. Also, players. For instance, while the Detroit financial answer to this critical question. the league decreased the size of goalie Red Wings franchise consistently loaded pads, eliminated the two-line pass and up its roster with highly paid players, the Lockout Changes reinstated the ―tag-up‖ offside rule to Buffalo Sabres couldn‘t hold on to their increase the amount of scoring in the av- best players, and the team filed for bank- The NHL and the NHLPA‘s new erage game. ruptcy in 2003. Focusing on this issue, collective bargaining agreement com- the owners voted to lockout the NHL pletely overhauled the NHL‘s salary Economic Theory Players Association (NHLPA), prompting structure, in addition to establishing some the cancellation of the entire 2004-2005 new rules for the game itself. This agree- In a free market, economic theo- season – a first for any sports league in ment included the institution of a maxi- ry tells us that a company would operate North America due to a labor dispute. mum salary cap beginning at $39 million in a way that would most maximize their For hockey fans, this meant per team for the 2005-06 season – to be level of profit. Before the institution of missing out on the blistering shots, bone- adjusted on a yearly basis to guarantee the maximum salary cap, the owners of crushing checks and miraculous saves of players 54 percent of total NHL revenues. the teams in the NHL were operating in a the 2004-05 season – no playoffs and no Additionally, the implemented minimum free market. one to hoist Lord Stanley‘s Cup. Howev- salary cap requires teams to pay at least During this time, NHL owners, er, after 301 days of ―lockout,‖ on July $21.5 million for its players. Under this as profit maximizers, would only sign a 13th, 2005, both parties agreed upon a new structure, teams are not permitted to player if they believed that that specific new collective bargaining agreement go above or pay below these benchmarks player‘s added benefit would exceed his meant to diminish economic inequalities except to replace a player who has sus- added cost. There was always the risk, tained a long-term however, of overpaying (resulting in what injury. These is termed the ―winner‘s curse‖). A man- minimum and ager would conduct a cost-benefit analy- maximum salary sis and sign a player if that player‘s mar- caps aimed to ginal revenue product of labor was great- compress the dif- er than his associated marginal revenue ferences between cost of labor – or so traditional economic both salaries paid theory predicts. Indeed, while the costs and revenues of signing a specific player are concrete, earned by each the benefits of signing him are more chal- team across the lenging to quantify, as this process in- league. volves assessing their level of production Many of the rule in the future, which is subject to a large changes that were number of variables. brought about by The implementation of the new the lockout re- salary cap significantly altered the ability volve around of NHL team owners to fully act in the Bruins goaltender Tim Thomas makes a save against Sharks opening up the interest of profit maximization. While center, Patrick Marleau, during a shootout—one of the most flow of play and previously, owners were free to sign a prominent changes made to the NHL as a result of the lockout. making the game player if they believed the added benefits 26 Sports, Inc. NHL
the NHL owners. The inverse relation- ship that seems to exist between the de- crease in salary expenditure and the in- crease in revenues suggests that NHL team owners may not have been acting as profit maximizers, and were instead vic- tims of the ―winner‘s curse.‖ Additionally, among the thirty teams, the correlation between salary and revenue decreased from .72 to .51 after the lockout. This suggests that under these rules, salary is now a weaker pre- dictor of revenue (or vice versa)—the salary cap creates more equality for all teams. Breaking down the data further, to the upper-left is a scatterplot of salary against revenue for each team both before the lockout (blue) and after (red), with linear regression lines drawn for each of that player exceed the added costs, the Analysis case. cap affected their ability to openly do so. The positive trend suggests that For example, if the owner of the Pittsburg The first step in identifying the general teams required to reduce their payroll Penguins, Mario Lemieux, believes that effects of the cap is to compare average experience a reduction in revenues. The the benefit of acquiring Roberto Luongo team payroll and revenue from the 2003- fact that the red line is above and to the exceeds the cost of doing so, if the money 04 season to 2005-06, according to left of the blue line re-confirms the con- was available, would sign him. However, Forbes data: clusion that teams made more money under the new cap, Lemieux must be con- with smaller salaries. However, teams scious of the salary cap restrictions when such as Anaheim and Buffalo saw the acquiring any new players and may not Season 03/04 05/06 opposite effect; reduced salary expenses be able to sign Roberto Luongo, if he so were associated with revenue increases. desires. In this way, under the new cap, Payroll $44,400,490 $34,309,972 These increases in revenue suggest that NHL owners are significantly restricted the owners of teams such as Anaheim and from acting as true profit maximizers. Buffalo were overpaying for their players. However, with the new cap max- Revenue $74,600,000 $75,566,667 The cap forced these teams to be more imum, some owners are also now forced cautious in their estimates of a player‘s to reduce the contract expenses or release Correlation 0.72 0.51 future benefit, which, in turn, led to in- some of their higher paid players. In this creased revenues. way, the new cap is also, to some extent, pushing owners to act more like profit While average maximizers. team payroll sig- In addition, the newly instituted nificantly de- cap restricts NHL owners from falling creased (as was victim to the ―winner‘s curse‖ and sub- forced by the cap) stantially overpaying a player. With only by close to $10 a limited amount of money to spend on million, there was players, owners will be much more con- a surprising in- servative in their estimates of a player‘s crease in average future value, causing a reduction in the revenue of $1 effect of the ―winner‘s curse.‖ million (as shown After initially looking at the ef- in the table in the fects of the institution of a maximum sal- bottom left). This ary cap on NHL team owners in accord- increase in reve- ance with economic theory, this article nue, despite the analyzes the effects of this cap on team sharp decrease in revenues. If NHL team owners were, salary expenses, indeed, profit maximizers before the lock- is evidence that, out period, the institution of a cap maxi- overall, the insti- mum should result in decreased revenues tution of the cap of greater than $1 for every dollar change has been benefi- Roberto Luongo, one of the most sought-after—and highly paid— in salary across the teams for which the cial for the finan- players in the league, makes a save on a shot from the top of the cap was binding. cial position of circle Fall 2010 27 The 2004-05 NHL Lockout
For statistical summation of the data, the following regression is used: Change in Salary and Revenue for NHL Teams
Change in Salary Change in Revenue Δ Revenue = a0 + a1 (Cap) + a2 (Cap) x (Required Δ Salary)
This regression makes use of $20,000,000 three variables: Δ Revenue, Cap, and Re- $10,000,000 quired Δ Salary. Change in revenue is the difference in revenues of a team between $0 the pre- and post-lockout periods. The cap variable is a dummy variable includ- -$10,000,000 ed to distinguish between those teams that -$20,000,000 were forced to reduce their payroll to meet the cap from the teams that were -$30,000,000 unaffected. If the cap was binding for a team – meaning a team was forced to -$40,000,000 reduce its payroll value to the level of the cap – the cap variable is equal to 1. If the cap was not binding for a team – meaning a team‘s payroll was unaffected by the cap – the cap variable is equal to 0. The cap will experience an increase in reve- and, at least to some extent, acting as required change in salary variable is the nue of $4,571,428.60, on average. profit maximizers during the pre-lockout amount a team was forced to reduce its period. payroll in accordance with the new maxi- While this initial data gives an Coefficient T-ratio mum cap. Therefore, if the cap is binding indication of the overall effects of the for a team, this value will be the amount a0 1.24 maximum cap, in order to analyze these of reduction in its payroll, whereas if the effects more accurately, it is important to a .05 cap is not binding for a team, this value 1 separate the data of the teams for whom will be 0. a2 -2.13 / 4.13 the maximum cap was binding (16) – This regression will also produce above the maximum cap – from the teams three coefficients – a0, a1 and a2. The that were unaffected by the cap (14) – coefficient constant a0 will tell us the val- With a t-value of 1.24, this is a fairly below the maximum cap. In separating ue for the change in revenue of the teams imprecise estimate and leaves room for data into these two groups, it is evident for whom the cap is not binding. The much variation, which can be seen in the that the teams who were unaffected by coefficient a1 will show the expected ad- large differences between teams across the cap saw average revenue increases of ditional change in revenue for those the league. Also the cap variable is $4,785,714, while the teams that were teams above the cap. The coefficient a2 shown to have a t-value of .05, indicating forced to reduce their salaries as a result indicates the change in revenue for every that its influence on the model is pretty of the instituted cap experienced revenue dollar reduction in payroll. If this value insignificant. Most importantly, this decreases of $2,375,000, as seen in the is greater than -1, this means that for eve- equation depicts that for every dollar the table below. ry dollar reduction in payroll, the team maximum cap requires a team to change experiences a greater loss in revenue. If its payroll, there is a $0.34 decrease in this value is between 0 and -1, then for revenue, the value of a2. At this value, Team Averages Revenue Change each dollar reduction in payroll, the team teams are only losing a fraction of their Below Max Cap +$4,785,714 is only losing a fraction of its revenue. If revenue ($0.34) for reductions in payroll Above Max Cap -$2,375,000 this number is positive, then every dollar costs. With a t-value of -2.13, for the null reduction in payroll is associated with an hypothesis of 0, and 4.13, for the null increase in revenue. hypothesis of -1, this change is a statisti- This data suggests that the im- Running this regression pro- cally significant finding. plementation of the salary cap was bene- duced the following equation values: As expenses are decreasing less ficial for teams that were not restricted by significantly than revenues, this indicates the cap, but was detrimental to teams that Δ Revenue = 4,571,428.60 + 256,670.40 that profits would be increasing after the were. More importantly, this data sug- (Cap) + -.34 (Cap)(Required Δ Salary) institution of the cap. While this may be gests that the owners of teams above the true for some teams, the low t-value for a0 maximum cap were, to some extent, oper- With an r-squared value of .18, indicates that there is variation in this ating previously as profit maximizers, and this regression implies that the required data and that the model cannot be applied the cap is now restricting their ability to change in salary enforced by the cap accurately as a general trend for the entire act as profit maximizers – a fact that is maximum accounts for 18 percent of the league. The data, as a whole, suggests reflected in the reduced profit levels. variation in the change in revenue. This that the owners of teams who were re- In addition, the graph in the top equation shows a0 to be 4,571,428.60, quired to change their payroll to meet the left of the previous page depicts the re- representing that teams not bound by the cap were both overpaying their players quired change in salary and the change in 28 Sports, Inc. NHL
The Anaheim Ducks (left) and Carolina Hurricanes (right)—the two teams that saw the greatest increase in revenue as a result of the new salary cap—hoist Lord Stanley‘s Cup in the two seasons following the lockout period revenue between the pre- and post- in salary, indicating that the owners were that it has sufficiently reduced the eco- lockout periods for each team in the not acting as profit maximizers before the nomic disparity that exists across the NHL. Teams that were required to re- lockout. However, the regression, in con- league, based on the data I have. There duce their payrolls in accordance with the junction with the other data, also showed could also be other uncontrolled variables maximum salary cap have a value equal that this was not consistent across all that help to explain this effect. While to the change, while the teams that were teams. From these results it can be con- some teams may have previously been unaffected by the cap have a value for cluded that each individual team and operating as profit maximizers, the new salary change of zero. owner operated to a different extent as a cap has prompted those that were not, to profit maximizer during the pre-lockout make progress towards doing so. As evi- Conclusion period. dent by the increased levels of total While this data depicts that league revenue and profit, the new maxi- The teams that were required to teams that were forced to reduce their mum salary cap has been effective in di- reduce their payroll as a result of the new payroll experienced a loss in revenue, it minishing payroll and revenue disparities cap maximum experienced an even great- also shows that some of these teams ex- across the NHL and has certainly benefit- er reduction in revenue between the pre- perienced an increase in revenue and ed the league as a whole. In this way, the lockout and post-lockout seasons than many others saw an increase in profits. ‘04 – ‘05 lockout was beneficial for the teams for whom the cap was not binding. This suggests that those teams that expe- fans, the owners and the NHL, as a I hypothesized that if owners were, in- rienced a loss in revenue after the cap whole. deed, acting as profit maximizers before were acting previously as profit maximiz- the lockout period, the institution of a cap ers and that those teams that experienced The author adapted this article from a maximum would result in decreased reve- an increase in revenues or profits were paper he submitted for academic credit in nues of greater than $1 for every dollar previously falling victim to the ―winner‘s ILRLE 2400: Economics of Wages and change in salary across the teams for curse‖ and overpaying for their players. Employment in spring 2010. which the cap was binding. The results In assessing the effectiveness of obtained from the regression suggested the maximum cap instituted by the new that teams above the cap saw decreases in collective bargaining agreement between revenue of $0.34 for every dollar change the NHL and the NHLPA, it is evident Fall 2010 29
ESPN 30 for 30 Reviews
With its plethora of highlights and analyses, everyday ESPN “wows” our eyes and intrigues our brains. However, with its 30 for 30 series, which premiered last October, ESPN successfully affects another part of our body, our hearts. In celebration of its 30th anniversary, ESPN has been airing 30 documentaries directed by pro- fessional athletes, celebrities, and filmmakers. By covering the issues, people, trends, teams and events that changed the sports world over the past 30 years, ESPN has once again shown us why we love sports. Bill Simmons, who came up with the idea, explained the series' goals in a few sentences. “We wanted people to say, 'Wow, I for- got how (fill in a word: great, amazing, poignant, crazy, depressing, unbelievable) that was' or 'I can‟t believe I never knew that whole story.' We didn‟t want to check off a laundry list of the 30 biggest stories from 1979 to 2009. That‟s what our viewers would expect from us. We wanted to surprise them." ESPN did just that. So, we asked our club, “"What is your favorite 30 for 30 documentary and why?"
-Compiled by Joey Shampain. A&S „13
My favorite 30 for 30 was the My favorite 30 for 30 was ―Two Escobars‖, directed by Jeff and Mi- "Run Ricky Run.‖ This documen- chael Zimbalist. The story is horrific yet tary showed the real story of one of captivating. Fueled by the rise of Colombi- the most misunderstood talents in an drug lord Pablo Escobar, the Colombian pro sports history. Most fans look National Soccer became one of the premier down upon Ricky Williams for international team entering the 1994 World missing out on his prime due to drug Cup. However, an own goal against the problems. However, this story went United States in the opening round by the inside Ricky's life and showed a other Escobar, Andres Escobar, eliminated whole perspective that most people had previously failed to Colombia from competition. After returning recognize. This story gave me greater appreciation for Ricky home, Andres Escobar was shot and killed. By including specific Williams, and a greater understanding of the problems he's details and candid interviews, the Zimbalists do more than retell the had to deal with. story. Fascinating intricacies are elaborated on, including the col- -Robbie Cohen, ILR „13 lapse of order after the death of Pablo Escobar and his unique love for soccer. This brings more passion and sympathy into the story. In the end, I even found myself rooting for Colombia against the As an economist, my favorite 30 for 30 film was United States. "Small Potatoes: Who Killed the USFL?". It is a reminder -Joey Shampain, A&S „13 of an era that has now seemingly forever passed; an era when established leagues faced ongoing threats from upstart rival leagues. Since the demise of the USFL, none of the estab- lished leagues have faced credible competition, and all have been able to further solidify their strong monopoly positions. -Professor Neil Longley, UMass Sports Management
I thought it was the Len Bias one, ―Without Bias.‖ I just appreciated the honesty that Len's friends showed throughout the documentary. They just came forward and said that Len had done cocaine several times and didn't try to glamorize the situation, just told it how it was. I also think it was an interesting microcosm of the general coke problem that the NBA had Personally, my favorite 30 for 30 was ―Without back in the 80s. (David Stern may have fixed Bias,‖ directed by Kirk Fraser. Having been born after the that problem, but he's created several more actual phenomenon that was Len Bias, I did not have the op- and I think he needs to go!) Anyways, it was portunity to experience this intense, fierce, competitive, and also great to see just how scary of an athlete most importantly talented individual. With this installation of Len was and how good the Celtics would the series, viewers were placed in the middle of the action, have been with him and Bird in their front right at the school, and in the offices of the Celtics organiza- court. I just thought the whole documentary tion. I was shown how the events transpired, and it let me was really well done and got right to the heart formulate my own opinions of what actually happened that of matters. fateful day when the sports world was shocked. Without Bi- -Morgan Zimmerglass, ILR „10 as made viewers feel compassion. It almost felt like it all happened again. -Daniel Lowenthal, CALS „14
30 Sports, Inc.
My favorite 30 for 30 was ―The ―Kings Ransom” covers Wayne Best That Never Was.‖ This documen- Gretzky‘s 1988 trade from the Edmonton tary centered on Marcus Dupree, a star Oilers to the Los Angeles Kings and pow- running back out of Philadelphia, Missis- erfully explores issues of loyalty, fandom, sippi that attended the University of Ok- and management in professional sports lahoma. Sports writers at the time called and the economy. Through highlights, him the most skilled running back that interviews, and a chilling six-minute cold ever lived on our planet. In addition to introduction from the great one himself, top-level speed, break tackle ability, pa- this film attempts to explain how the best tience, vision, and strength, I could see hockey player who ever lived was traded from footage that he had an innate ability In the Summer of 2009, I in the prime of his career—at twenty- to find space when there was very little at worked for Shoot the Moon Productions seven years old, he already held 49 NHL hand. In the 1983 Fiesta Bowl, played on the 30 for 30 documentary, ―Winning records and four Stanley Cup titles—from following the 1982 season, Dupree‘s Time: Reggie Miller vs. The New York the devoted, blue-collar Edmonton fan- freshman year, Oklahoma played Arizona Knicks.‖ The documentary is a dark base to Hollywood. State, who had the top rush defense in the comedy about the bitter, physical, enter- country. Dupree came back from vacation taining rivalry between Reggie Miller‘s out of shape, which negatively affected Indiana Pacers and the New York Knicks his hamstrings. Playing at about half of during the mid-90‘s. There isn‘t a main his optimal ability, Dupree often slid and narrator of the film. The people inter- fell deliberately following runs before he viewed for the documentary (Knick and was touched by defenders because of leg Pacer players, coaches, executives, re- pain. He went to the locker room several porters, and fans) tell the story. times throughout the contest. Despite I spent most of my time at work playing less than half of the offensive watching and re-watching 17 Knicks- snaps and playing at a severely dimin- Pacers playoff games. I created gamelogs ished level, Dupree still managed to run that gave descriptions and times of every Although technically a trade (the for 239 yards on only 17 carries! clip that could potentially be put into the Oilers received in return players, draft That game was a fitting repre- documentary. One of my most tedious picks, and $15 million), this was not sentation for Dupree‘s football career as a responsibilities was to transcribe all of about two general managers constructing whole. Mentally, Dupree could not han- the playoff games. For instance, if Marv their respective teams. Indeed, the view- dle the pressure of the cameras and atten- Albert said ten minutes into the tape, er never hears from front office staff be- tion being given to him. Beyond that, he ―John Starks, for three . . . YES!‖ I would sides Edmonton head coach Glen Sather simply wanted to be left alone. His rocky pause the game and type, ―10:00—MA: (who‘s opposition to the trade is ignored relationship with Sooner head coach Bar- John Starks, for three . . . YES!‖ by owner Peter Pocklington). This is an ry Switzer did not make things any easier Spending a summer breaking down issue for the owners, Gretzky, and the for Dupree‘s mental state, and Switzer old Knicks-Pacers playoff games was a game of hockey itself. Trade ramifica- says his handling of Dupree is the biggest perfect summer job for me. I applied my tions even touched on national allegianc- regret of his football coaching career, experiences of transcribing episodes of es, as the Canadian government attempt- which include three national champion- Sports, Inc. Radio, directly to my job ed to block it. ships and a Super Bowl victory. Dupree with Shoot the Moon Productions. I start- Ownership considerations al- was granted special permission to join the ed following basketball during this time lowed the deal to materialize, but ulti- professional ranks via the USFL after period. I idolized Patrick Ewing and mately Gretzky‘s personal deliberations dropping out of Southern Mississippi. His played basketball in my Charles Oakley and hockey ambassadorship made it hap- five year, $5 million contract with the jersey. But I couldn‘t fully appreciate the pen. He brought the very best talent to New Orleans Breakers was the richest in Knicks, the rivalry, Reggie‘s greatness, or the entertainment capital of the world in a league history. A vicious knee injury the NBA at the time. Dissecting and re- move that coincided with NHL expansion knocked him out of the league, and watching every minute of those playoff from 21 to 30 teams in less than a decade. Dupree gained a ton of weight. Eventual- battles was a dream-job. Contributing to Was this worth the personal relationships ly, Dupree made a comeback with the the documentary which was shown at the he built in Edmonton and the ―maybe Los Angeles Rams in 1990 but was cut Sundance Film Festival was a rewarding four more championship‖ he says he following the 1992 preseason. feeling as well. But the best part of the thinks he could have won had he stayed Today, Dupree is a truck driver job was that it confirmed that I could in Edmonton (he won none in LA)? and is content with his life. He did not watch and analyze sports all day. -Gabe Gershenfeld, ILR „11 want what others wanted for him, which -Jeffery Lebow, ILR „11 was to be the best running back of all time. Football-wise, he was pure potential that never materialized. This movie in- spired me to be the best that I possibly can be in a certain field, whatever that job may be. -Joshua Erenstein, CALS „11 Fall 2010 31
players and fans alike can be seen on the television show ―Madden Nation‖, anoth- Madden NFL er annual competition that aired on ESPN2 for four years. Accomplished The game‟s influence around the league gamers traveled across the country play- ing against the nations best for the right to Michael Hansen, CALS ‗14 play the final showdown on the big [email protected] screen in Times Square, where the winner walked away with $100,000. More im- portantly, everyone on the show got the Flashback to week 1 of the 2009 video game, Stokley replied, ―It definitely chance to meet an NFL pro. It was quite football season- The Denver Broncos is.‖ the experience for these Average Joes to trailed the Cincinnati Bengals 7-6 with The Madden NFL Franchise has go to a player‘s home and play him in only 28 seconds left in the game and the infiltrated every locker room in The Madden, beating him at his own game. ball on their own 13-yard line. With League. Eagles Running Back LeSean The participants would then represent mere seconds left and the length of the McCoy puts it simply ―Everybody plays their NFL pro for the duration of the na- field to go, the situation looked bleak for Madden.‖ According to Jets QB Mark tionwide Madden tour by wearing his Broncos fans. But as Kyle Orton took a Sanchez, everyone claims to be the best official NFL jersey, bridging the gap be- shot into traffic, aiming for a triple cov- on their team and they often are forced to tween casual gamers and those who are ered Brandon Marshall, the ball was bat- settle it on the sticks. Perhaps nothing actually in the game. ted up into the air and Gus Johnson‘s speaks to the mass appeal and popularity Madden has invaded the culture voice echoed out of televisions around the of the game as the Madden Bowl. This of the NFL and, as seen by the Stokley country: ―Ohhh CAUGHT! STOKLEY! ‖ single elimination tournament has been play, it‘s making its presence felt on the Now dubbed ―The Immaculate held every Super Bowl weekend since field too. Even in last year‘s Super Bowl, Deflection,‖ the ball dropped right into 1995 on the current year‘s version of Saint‘s head coach Sean Payton turned the hands of Wide Receiver Brandon Madden. It is not played with typical down a chip shot field goal in the second Stokley who had quarter for an unsuc- a clear lane to the cessful fourth and end zone. He goal attempt. Then, sprinted the “That‟s actually how I learned how to read defenses at the start of the se- length of the growing up. I would look at Madden to see what a cond half, the Saints field, poised to Cover 2 or a Cover 3 was.” -Percy Harvin, Vikings WR surprised the Colts put his team up with an onside kick. by a touchdown, These decisions go but as he ap- against usual, con- proached the one-yard line, he unexpect- gamers though, all eight participants are servative NFL protocol, exemplifying the edly veered off to the right. Running NFL stars. Maurice Jones-Drew took new aggressive ―Maddenized‖ movement parallel to the goal line, a move all too home the title in 2010, knocking off Chris of playcalling. This strategy aims toward familiar to Madden NFL players, Stokley Johnson and Patrick Willis to claim brag- scoring as many points as possible burned six precious seconds off the clock ging rights. With some players choosing through high-risk, pass-happy, spread before turning into the endzone, and to play as themselves in the game, and offenses. The Madden franchise has al- helped prevent any last second drive from others selecting teams more suited for ways focused on delivering a real football the Bengals. After the game, he was their strategies, the significance of the experience that in fact mirrors the NFL, praised for his quick thinking, and when competition to the players was apparent. but now it seems that the NFL is adapting asked if this was a move straight out of a Madden‘s mass appeal to the to Madden‘s image.
A screenshot from the original John Madden Football video game in 1988 (left) compared to Madden ‗11 (right). 32 Sports, Inc.
This new image is extending more throughout the NFL as the newest generation of players that have grown up The (In)significance of BABIP on video games enter the league. Many players even use Madden as simulation Luck and future performance in baseball software to help improve their game on the field. The game utilizes the actual William Candell, ILR ‗13 formations and plays used by current [email protected] teams. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Wide Receiver Dezmon Briscoe said that NCAA Football 2010, EA Sports‘ colle- In an increasingly sabermetric batting average, or even the sabermetri- giate equivalent of Madden, successfully baseball world, the use of certain ad- cally-favored on-base percentage cannot imported ―a majority‖ of his alma mater vanced statistics has redefined our under- account for such a discrepancy in ability. Kansas‘s playbook into the game. He standing of the modern game. For better Granted, BABIP can indeed be a also credits Madden 2009 for teaching or worse, new, in-depth measurements of valid measurement of luck and thus pre- him how to read when defenses ―roll their performance have infiltrated the minds of dict future performance. New York Yan- coverage.‖ Percy Harvin, Wide Receiver fans and management alike, creating new kees shortstop Derek Jeter, for instance for the Vikings, agrees: ―That‘s actually standards of baseball success. But as had a stellar performance in 2009, bat- how I learned how to read defenses grow- complex terms such as ―runs created‖ ting .334 and reaching base over 40% of ing up. I would look at Madden to see begin to fill the mainstream baseball ver- the time. His BABIP, however, was an what a Cover 2 or a Cover 3 was.‖ This nacular, while the accepted value of sta- shows the potential for how Madden can tistics such as ―runs batted in‖ falls by the be used as a learning tool, similar to a wayside, we run the risk of misinterpret- driving simulation for NASCAR racers, ing data and thus drawing erroneous con- to help players take what they see in the clusions. One sabermetric statistic that game and apply it on the field. features high risk for misuse is batting It is hard to imagine that a video average on balls in play, or simply game, which by nature is meant to be fun, BABIP. Its known and perceived useful- is also a learning tool for football players ness are often at odds with one another, – an amazing achievement for the Mad- making it a rather complex gauge of play- den franchise. The game attains such er performance. simplicity that the casual fan can pick up BABIP is simply a measurement a controller and easily learn to play, yet it of a player‘s batting average on balls he still can replicate the kind of depth and puts into the field of play. The formula is precision used in an NFL coach‘s game- as follows: (Hits - Homeruns)/(At-bats – Can Ichiro‘s exceptionally high BABIP plan for the Super Bowl. Now when Homeruns –Strikeouts + Sacrifice flies). be ascribed to luck alone? Or does gamers and athletes alike pick up the Homeruns, strikeouts and walks are not his keen ability to run on contact fac- game, it only takes one call from the new included in this measurement, for the tor into this statistic? in-game play-by-play announcer Gus simple reason that they are not examples Johnson to remind them of Brandon of baseballs hit into the field of play. Es- exceptionally high .368 (the league aver- Stokley‘s infamous catch, and the Mad- sentially, the statistic serves as an objec- age generally runs around .300). If his den franchise‘s significant impact on the tive observation of the frequency with contacted balls were falling into play NFL. which these hit balls are converted into nearly 37% of the time, perhaps his bat- actual hits. A higher BABIP suggests a ting average was partially a function of Sources: higher rate of conversion. these balls finding hitter-friendly spots on In converting this metric into an the field. Sure enough, his 2010 campaign http://ps3.ign.com/ informative piece of data, there exists a featured a much more typical .307 articles/106/1067283p1.html common assumption that BABIP is simp- BABIP, a BABIP that coincided with his http://www.wired.com/ ly a measurement of luck. The inventor of worst Major League season ever, in magazine/2010/01/ BABIP, Voros McCracken, implicitly which he hit just .270, a 60 point decline ff_gamechanger/all/1 used this statistic in his Baseball Prospec- from the year before. But needless to say, http://www.youtube.com/watch? tus essay ―Pitching and Defense‖ to sug- not everyone is Derek Jeter (in more than v=wj5HtJidMZ8 gest this groundbreaking idea: ―Major- just one regard). Other factors must be http://www.gamespy.com/pc/nascar- league pitchers don't appear to have the considered when determining the rele- racing-2003- ability to prevent hits on balls in play.‖ In vance of a player‘s BABIP. season/712182p1.html other words, a high BABIP correlates to a One such overlooked factor is http://www.youtube.com/watch? ―lucky‖ batter while a low BABIP sug- speed. This is a fairly simple concept to v=_1b_7QMpmbs&feature=cha gests he caught a series of bad breaks. For comprehend. Faster batters are more like- nnel instance, an at-bat entailing a hard, line ly to reach base in a variety of ways, in- http://www.youtube.com/watch? drive out is decisively more impressive cluding bunts and weak ground balls, v=ryqQpWmO3sg&feature=cha than an at-bat featuring a weak, ground which generally serve to drive down the nnel ball, infield hit. However, the statistic average player‘s BABIP. Seattle Mariners Fall 2010 33
outfielder Ichiro Suzuki serves as a prime example of how speed confounds the relevance of BABIP, as his .357 Joe Mauer‟s Power BABIP and coinciding .315 batting av- erage may have been a function of his Home run analysis propensity to leg-out ground balls for infield hits. He had a remarkable 53 of Mat Sevin, ILR ‗11 these in 2010. [email protected] Another relevant factor that is not quantified by BABIP is defense. In this framework, it is more useful to as- Last season's AL MVP, Joe particular about Mauer's game, indicates sess the BABIP of a pitcher rather than Mauer, has seen his home run numbers that a lot of Mauer's power in 2009 was a hitter. Pitchers have BABIPs as well, drastically decline this season as com- the result of a statistical variation. If this measuring the frequency with which pared to his 2009 level. Mauer hit a dramatic increase had been accompanied opposing batters attain hits on pitched career-high 28 homers during his MVP by a drastic change in body type it would balls. Superior fielders may rob solid campaign, but so far this year he has hit be understandable, but Mauer's body did line drives, while infielders with limited only two. Using Bloomberg Sports' sta- not noticeably change. range may allow ground balls to pass tistical tools, we can see that Mauer's This season, Mauer's homerun them by. UZR, or ultimate zone rating, home run output both in 2009 and in per fly ball out rate has regressed to just is a sabermetric metric that can be used 2010 were uncharacteristic, and that his 5.7%, a career low, but also closer to the to gauge a team‘s composite defensive power numbers should regulate some- pre-2009 range. The numbers clearly point range. In 2010, the San Francisco Giants where in between the two. to 2009 being an outlier in this respect. ranked second in the Major Leagues First, it must be mentioned that Granted, a couple of unmentioned varia- with a 56.4 UZR while the Atlanta Mauer's OPS in 2009 was unusually bles might be pulling down Mauer's HR/ Braves ranked twenty-seventh with an high for his career, and a neutral observ- FB rate this year. One, the Twins' move to UZR of -35.7. Giants pitcher Matt Cain er might conclude that 2009 was a Target Field from the Metrodome might had a very low BABIP of .260, and fluke. Others could argue that this be affecting his power numbers, especially Braves' pitcher Tim Hudson owned a surge had to do with natural age pro- through the early, colder-weather months seemingly similar .250. But these two gression, as he reached the age of 26, a of the season. Second, pitchers might be figures are not as alike as they seem at milestone at which many players begin attacking Mauer differently this season, first glance. Since the Giants were sig- to peak. Thus, despite Mauer's current following his '09 power outburst. Let us nificantly more effective at reaching career OPS of .887, it could be argued explore these two possibilities. baseballs in play, it follows that their that his 1.031 2009 OPS would have Mauer's new home, Target Field, pitcher was indeed much luckier. Cain some staying power. Mauer's monster has been the third-worst ballpark for home likely benefited from his team‘s ability season prompted the Twins to hand him runs, in front of only Citi Field and the to ―steal‖ hits from the opposition, while an eight-year, $184 million contract Oakland Coliseum, according to Hudson reaped no such benefits. Here, extension in March. ESPN.com's MLB Park Factors. However, BABIP alone is not indicative of a Mauer's two homers this year- through just over one-third of the season, pitcher‘s luck. to-date have thus raised concerns in it is tough to say that this phenomenon is Perhaps most importantly, Minnesota. We can point to his fluctuat- reliable or that it will remain constant. BABIP contains inherent shortcomings ing home runs per flyball rate as a cause After all, it typically takes three years in that it does not account for the differ- of this season's power outage - as well before you can properly trust a given sta- entiation between fly outs (including as Mauer's 2009 outlier season. From dium's park factor. Meanwhile, Mauer's line outs) and groundouts. Houston As- 2005 to 2008, that rate ranged from previous home, the Metrodome, played as tros outfielder Michael Bourn and 6.5% to 10.8% -- league average typi- roughly home run neutral. The dimensions Washington Nationals first baseman cally hovers around 10%. However, in of the two fields are very similar, so ex- Adam Dunn had identical, slightly high 2009, Mauer's HR/FB rate jumped to a pect Target Field to be less home run- BABIPs of .329 in 2010. Can we con- stratospheric 20.4%. Thus maybe this stubborn than it currently is, especially in clude that they encountered the same shift, rather than indicating anything in the warmer summer months. To date, amount of luck in their at-bats? It seems unlikely. Bourn ranked third in the en- number of ground balls. It is also worth assessing certain happenings in day-to-day tire league with a 1.66 groundball to fly noting that this disparity could also be Major League games, encompassing phe- ball ratio. Dunn, on the other hand, attributed to the ―Ichiro effect,‖ as nomena not captured by the daily box ranked seventh to last in the entire Bourne possesses tremendous speed score. Fantasy owners can benefit greatly league with just a .49 groundball to fly while Dunn runs well below average. from the application of BABIP, using it to ball ratio. Evidently, Dunn hit fly balls Regardless, BABIPs as a stand-alone analyze past and predict future perfor- at an incredibly higher rate than Bourne, statistic is evidently limited in its use- mance of players they consider drafting. balls that have a significantly greater fulness without a description of the con- The ability to contextualize this metric, capacity to amount to a hit. Bourne ap- tact made with the ball. however, is even more important. Realiz- pears to have been significantly luckier Clearly, the sabermetric-crazed ing its limitations is essential to its central than Dunn in that his BABIP was this baseball culture has reasons to love function as a valid quantification of base- high while hitting such an immense BABIP. It is certainly a valuable tool in ball. 34 Sports, Inc. MLB
power numbers. In regards to how pitch- ers are approaching Mauer, it seems un- likely that the recent adjustments can explain this year's low home run total, as he has been a top player in the league since 2004, and pitchers have been ad- justing to his tendencies every year. Meanwhile, Target Field has been playing like a large shopping mall - but it does not explain Mauer's low road home run total, or the fact that he has yet to hit any homers at home. Expect a middle ground to emerge between the home run binge Mauer showed last season and the drought he's experienced in 2010.
This article was published as a Bloom- berg Sports blog post on 6/16/10. In the following paragraphs written at the end of the 2010 season, the author looks back on his analysis. Can Joe Mauer‘s HR/ flyball out rate (above) or pitch patterns seen (below) help to explain the difference in his HR output between 2009 and 2010? In retrospect, what I find amaz- ing about these Bloomberg posts is their predictive power. As I quantitatively in- vestigated Joe Mauer‘s lackluster 2010 power performance, I asserted that his power numbers would not return to that of the 2009 level. Mauer finished the 2010 season with only nine homeruns after hitting twenty-eight the year before. The implications of these tools are also important in helping baseball teams more acutely invest in players. Joe Mauer signed an enormous eight-year, $184 million contract that begins in 2011. Had the Twins identified the trends from this article at an earlier point, they may have refrained from paying out this large sum. This article pinpoints the need for teams to invest in ―baseball intelli- Mauer's OPS is 80 points lower at home -2 counts, according to Bloomberg Sports gence‖, AKA sabermetric analytics. Cur- than away. tools, when compared to 2009. This ad- rently, the thirty Major League teams are Maybe pitchers are attacking justment by pitchers seems appropriate, at different stages of utilizing this infor- Mauer differently, too. This argument as Mauer had a .483 OPS against curve- mation, some hardly using it at all. Others could potentially explain some of the balls dating back to '06. Lastly, Mauer have the statistics but do not know how to catcher's power struggles. Pitchers, in has seen more changeups in 1-2, 2-1, and properly integrate them into their organi- fact, have been unwilling to throw him 2-2 counts, although he has fared well zational framework. Only a few teams fastballs in certain counts, and seem to against the changeup in his career, so this have their own sophisticated models of have replaced them with changeups, and adjustment should have had no effect. baseball analytics. I think it is clear that occasionally curveballs. In 2009, on 0-1 Target Field's low home run rate the predictive power teams reap from and 2-2 counts, Mauer saw a majority of and the new approach by pitchers may be using sabermetric analytics is immense, fastballs. However, this season, in the hurting Mauer's home run numbers. But and that all teams can benefit from such. same counts, he's seen a fastball only the statistical variation in his HR/FB rate about one-third of the time. This change also helps explains the drastic difference Blog link: by the pitchers seems smart, as Mauer between 2009 and 2010. That rate sug- had a lethal 1.077 OPS against four-seam gests that Mauer's MVP-type numbers http://bloombergsports.mlblogs.com/ fastballs from 2006 through 2009. Mean- may have been affected by a statistical 2010/06/16/joe-mauer-and-his-power- while, he now sees almost three times as outlier, and that fans and teams may have outage/ many curveballs on the first pitch and in 2 to reassess their expectations for Mauer's Fall 2010 35
Television Blackouts in the NFL A progressive plan for the future
Louis Goldstein, CALS ‗12 [email protected]
For a die-hard sports fan, watch- sions of the NFL‘s use of blackouts are continued until 1973, when the current ing his or her favorite team in the com- felt most by the league‘s most dedicated extension policy began and immensely forts of home can be considered more of a fans, as they may have to miss up to half helped ticket sales. ritual than a luxury. Cable and satellite a season of televised games if not enough In the 2009 season, there were a broadcasts of games are viewed by a mul- tickets are sold. total of 22 blackouts throughout the regu- titude of Americans, whether it‘s hud- Blackouts have been present in lar season, with lowly teams Jacksonville dling around the television on a Sunday the NFL since its earliest stages. The and Oakland receiving a whopping seven with your buddies to catch the NFL 1963 Bears-Giants NFL Championship local blackouts each. But do not think games or plopping down in bed to watch Gane was ―blacked out‖ in the entire city that the fans of less talented teams are the the Monday Night game after a tiring day of Chicago as a measure to ensure maxi- only ones who should be concerned; 2009 of work. Although the widespread, high- mum home ticket sales and stadium reve- playoff teams including Arizona, Cincin- quality television broadcasts are enjoya- nue. The only places that were able to air nati, and San Diego are worried that low- ble viewing mediums for many, individu- the game were small, private theaters er ticket sales for this current season may als such as team owners and league offi- which were granted rights to do so. In leave their fans devoid of the pleasure of cials fear that fans‘ actions are seriously fact, the first seven Super Bowls were not watching games from home. Even hurting ticket sales. The response to this widely available on television within 75 though the Chargers sold out every home problem has been enforcing television miles of the stadium. In the 1960‘s, this game in 2009, there were several close ―blackouts‖ within local markets, where was not surprising at all as regular season calls where extensions were given in hope the game will not be shown if a deter- home games for all teams were common- that more tickets would be purchased as a mined ticket sales quota is not met. Tak- ly blacked out. Hotels just outside the game drew closer.4 Although the NFL‘s ing this action is surely drastic, but is it blackout policy is truly an effective way to combat fan at- designed to even- tendance that has been deemed insuffi- tually increase cient? revenue, it is dif- The NFL is the league where ficult to believe fans are hit the hardest by this phenome- that this will be non. With only an 8 game regular season the natural occur- home schedule for each team, teams rence. This is strive to sell out each game. Yet accom- mainly due to the plishing this goal has proven to be far ease of access to more difficult than the NFL imagined, games broadcast- especially for teams that haven‘t had ed over the inter- much success in the near past. Generally net; simply by defined, a television blackout refers to a conducting an situation in which a game cannot be tele- internet search a vised in a certain media market. Broad- fan will be able to casters within 75 miles of the stadium are find multiple only permitted to broadcast home games internet broad- if they are sold out 72 hours in advance. Blackouts in the NFL are hardly a recent phenomena.For example, casts of his or her Commonly, extensions are given on a 24- the 1958 NFL Super Bowl between the Baltimore Colts and the favorite team hour basis, and multiple extensions are New York Giants, often referred to as ―The Greatest Game Ever with little diffi- not uncommon prior to making the final Played‖, was blacked out in the New York Area. culty. This may decision whether or not to air the game.1 be hurting the The decision on whether or not to give an cause of disgrun- extension lies with the league office, and blackout area took advantage of this by tled television watchers more than any- during this period teams are given the promoting special day rates for those who thing else as the internet is such an acces- option to buy back tickets at one-third of wished to view the game at a comfortable sible avenue for viewing. Because of their face value in order to lift a blackout, location not too far from home.3 Alt- this, it is clear that the NFL must take a if desired.2 It is clear that the repercus- hough almost unimaginable today, this different, more effective approach to this 36 Sports, Inc. NFL
problem or else it will continue to wors- stantly undersold, special promotions um. A good example of this are the en. may be offered to entice those with less to ―Terrible Towels‖ given out to each Pitts- Although the NFL may be deter- spend. These may include an increased burgh Steelers fan upon entering the sta- mined to enforce their harsh blackout amount of group discounts or packaged dium, which contain the team colors and policy until it causes a change in fan be- deals where fans receive coupons or are waved back and forth in unity havior, I do not feel this will occur natu- vouchers that can be used throughout the throughout the entire game. rally as believed. The league must act stadium. Seats that once were barren may Although it only seems fair that accountably and take action if they wish now be filled, and surely more revenue hometown fans be able to view their fa- to alter the current reality. So far, nega- will be produced than if these tickets vorite team on basic television each tive trends have been on the rise, week, the reality is that the NFL is a and an end to this doesn‘t seem huge business that has minimum ex- near. Previous history has shown Not only do blackouts strip dedi- pectations. Ultimately, the fate of the that fans have not reacted well to cated fans of the privilege of fol- situation may just lie with the actions blackouts; therefore we cannot as- of the fans, but the administrative sume they will do so in the future. lowing their favorite teams week- figures within each franchise also Not only do blackouts strip dedicat- ly, they send the message that have several critical options to con- ed fans of the privilege of follow- money drives decisions. sider. If things continue to stay the ing their favorite teams weekly, the way they currently are, I expect a message being sent is that money period of futility that could last for has completely taken over the game and were not sold at all. It is clear that the decades. It is clear that immediate, alt- is ultimately the decision factor. The NFL and its fans must work in conjunc- hough not necessarily drastic, actions main concept is that fans need an enticing tion in order to make progress; if both must be taken to make an effort to reverse reason that will persuade them to choose groups are able to make and comply with current trends. After all, the fans are the stadium over their home theater. logical changes then I believe the black- what enable professional sports to be as At this point in time, it is fair to out issue can be solved rather quickly. If successful and prominent as they are to- say that a plethora of fans feel slighted or the NFL makes the intelligent decision to day. even betrayed by their lifelong squad. make changes to its current policies, both The remedy to this situation is one that parties will clearly benefit. Sources: must be viewed as one that will realisti- In addition, teams would have to cally work in the long-term. Re-imposing minimize the ―hidden costs‖ of going to a 1 "Blackout (broadcasting)." Wikipedia: blackout conditions after lifting them for live contest which may deter fans such as: The Free Encyclopedia. Web. 11 a short while will lead to immensely larg- high concession stand prices, steep park- Nov. 2010. er problems than were present before. ing fees, seat comfort, and congested traf- 2 Leahy, Sean. "Raiders Get Extension to Fans will be even more discouraged, and fic flow leaving the stadium after the Avoid TV Blackout; All NFL a remedy would be near impossible. game. For example, a large pizza at the Games May Air in Week Therefore, we must make sure that when new Cowboys stadium costs $60, and 9." USA Today. Web. 9 Nov. a possible solution is chosen it can be parking at the new Meadowlands is at 2010. effective far into the future. A large ob- least $20; hardly affordable for the aver- 3 Yellon, Al. "A Brief History of NFL stacle is the fact that the quality of televi- age fan.6 Even if a ticket is purchased for Blackouts." SB Nation. Web. 8 sion coverage is increasing each and eve- only $35-40, twice that may be easily Nov. 2010.
MLB Salary Arbitration Has it raised salaries to free agency levels?
Elizabeth McInnis, ILR ‗11 [email protected]
Introduction Theory
Article VI, Section F, subsection The significant cost to teams 1 of the Major League Baseball Collec- during a prospect‘s development is the tive Bargaining Agreement describes responsibility they have of both paying salary arbitration as the method to and training the players from the time through which a third party neutral deter- they are signed until they are either traded mines a player‘s contract. The process is or released. The high cost of training for considered final offer arbitration, mean- multiple years coupled with the fact that ing arbitrators will choose either the the vast majority of players who sign con- team‘s offer or the player‘s offer as a one tracts never make the majors, results in year contract. As long as the player and extremely high quasi-fixed costs, or costs team do not settle with a long term con- associated with the number of players tract, the player will be eligible for salary rather than the amount of playing time arbitration every year until he reaches six per player, for each team. years of Major League Service (MLS) This type of training is consid- Joe Mauer‘s eight-year, $184 million con- and becomes a free agent. The salary ar- ered general training. Ron Ehrenberg and tract keeps the star catcher in Minnesota bitration process came about in 1973 as Bob Smith, both Professors at Cornell‘s through his arbitration –eligible years and part of the collective bargaining agree- ILR School, state that ―if employee mo- at a cost that is likely below market value. ment between Major League Baseball bility costs are not very great, employers (MLB) and Major League Baseball Play- will be deterred from investing in general er‘s Association (MLBPA). Initially the training.‖ However, that seems not to be free agency to attempt to recoup training owners voted 22-2 to approve the 1974 the case with Major League Baseball costs for both the player who made it to collective bargaining agreement (CBA) teams. The mobility costs of changing the big leagues and for the many other that was the first MLB agreement to in- teams are not very substantial for players players whose productivities never clude salary arbitration. They stated that due to provisions in the collective bar- reached what the scouting department giving up their stance and allowing salary gaining agreement that provides for mov- saw as their full potential. The regression arbitration would benefit everyone be- ing expenses analysis discussed below will attempt to cause it would help to pass the collective The problem with investing in see whether or not salary arbitration eligi- bargaining agreement, which was needed training for Major League Baseball play- ble players are paid the same amount of to end the labor dispute. The owners were ers is that after six years playing at a Ma- money for performance as free agents. hoping that allowing salary arbitration to jor League level, the players can take all This analysis will show if salary arbitra- be included in the basic agreement would of the training that helped them to im- tion has effectively lowered the major allow them to avoid free agency in the prove their statistics and use it to assist in league service requirement for free agen- future. getting a higher salary on the free agent cy down to three years. Unfortunately for the owners, market. However, it should be clear that a free agency did come into existence, and team ―would only do so if it believes that Analysis a new question has arisen: Do arbitration- it can collect returns on that investment eligible players earn as much as free after training.‖ Employers get these re- The best way to decide whether agents? If the answer is yes, then the turns by keeping wages low after the free agents are paid more than salary arbi- MLS requirement for free-agency is es- training period. tration eligible players is to observe the sentially shortened to 3 years, shortening Very few teams in the modern effect that performance has on the salary the amount of time that teams are able to baseball era have players like Joe Mauer, of both groups of players. In order to de- employ players at below-market value. who want to attempt to stay with the same termine this effect, this section will use This paper attempts to answer this ques- baseball team throughout their entire ca- data to see whether teams indeed have the tion through a regression comparing the reer and are willing to take a pay cut by full six years to recoup their training difference between free-agent salaries and earning below market value in order to do costs, by paying players with less than six arbitration salaries, and performance. so. In the majority of the cases, the teams years of MLS lower than their marginal only have the six years of MLS prior to revenue costs. 38 Sports, Inc. MLB
The first decision that had to be year contract which spanned from their eligible. One of the possible reasons for made in conducting this analysis was last years of salary arbitration up until at this is that free agents have proven track which types of players to analyze. Since least 2009, when they were considered a records of performance, which means the reasons teams hire players for differ- free agent. The number of free agents teams are willing to pay more for perfor- ent positions can vary widely, the regres- who fit this criteria is 52. mance. The other possible reason, the one sion in this section focuses on the corner One variable in the salary equa- which seems to be likely according to the positions. The corner positions include tion was the free agent dummy variable theory section, is that both arbitrators and first base, third base, right field and left (FA). This variable assigns a value of 1 if teams realize that teams have a very lim- field. When scouting players for these the player is a free agent and a value of 0 ited time to try to make back the quasi- positions, teams tend to focus much more if he is not, and was added to see if free fixed costs on the few players who actual- on the players hitting ability than their agents get paid more, just because of the ly make it to the major leagues. Therefore fielding ability. All of the corner position fact they are free agents. When holding salary arbitration eligible players are paid players are expected to give the majority performance (which will be quantified significantly less for their performance of the run support for the team. later) constant the salary of free agents is than free agents with the same statistics. Corner positions are the easiest $555,613 lower than the salary of arbitra- positions to statistically evaluate. Most tion eligible players. However, the regres- Conclusion baseball data sites, including the MLB- sion analysis shows that the probability owned PIA Plus, are limited in what they that this decrease in salary could be due The implication of this case report for fielding statistics. Using hitting to random sampling is 74.9%. A probabil- study is that Major League Baseball ability statistics, I was able to choose my ity, or p value, under 5% is considered teams follow most of the theory about variables much more carefully since I had statistically significant. Since the p value quasi-fixed costs. Although they provide a much larger, more in-depth selection of is over this threshold the regression re- general training, despite the fact that the variables to pick from. All data is from sults found cannot be concluded to be players do not have high mobility costs, the 2009 season. statistically significant. teams choose to provide training because Another decision that had to be Another variable is based on they believe they will recoup the costs by made was which salary arbitration eligi- performance of all players, on-base plus keeping the salary of players who make ble players and free agents to include in slugging (OPS) times at bats (AB). OPS the team artificially low for the first 6 the analysis based on whether or not they measures both the ability of the player to years. Teams provide training at a cost to want to arbitration. When it came to sala- get on base and the ability to hit for pow- them because they know that any players ry arbitration eligible players, the analysis er. It is a good overall measure of a play- with less than 6 MLS, even salary arbitra- could either include the players who actu- er‘s offensive ability. This paper uses the tion eligible players, will allow them to ally had their cases heard at arbitration or product of these two commonly used make back some of their quasi-fixed both the players who went to arbitration baseball statistics because if a player only costs. Major League Baseball teams ap- and the players who settled before the has a few at bats his OPS can appear ei- pear to act much like other businesses hearing. Since historically only a few ther extremely high or extremely low. when it comes to quasi-fixed costs. cases ever reach the arbitration room (in Multiplying by AB accounts for this and 2009 only 3 cases made it) the data in- reduces the chance of any major outliers. The author adapted this article from a cludes all of the settled arbitration cases While holding all other variables con- paper she submitted for academic credit as well. The teams who settled with their stant, a player‘s salary increases by in a credit internship with the MLB Labor players before did so under the threat of $10,108 for each point of OPS times AB. Relations department in spring 2010. arbitration, and therefore had to take that The p-value of this variable was .5 per- into account when bargaining with the cent making this result statistically signif- Sources: player. The data used includes settled icant. arbitration cases that are coded as if they The final variable in the salary Brown, Maury. Evolution of Salary Arbi- went to arbitration. In total, 33 arbitra- equation was FA*OPS*AB. This varia- tration: An ironic tale. (2010 , tion cases were used in the sample. ble shows how much above and beyond January 19). Retrieved April 25, The other choice that had to be the $10,108 free agents receive for each 2010, from http:// made was which group of free agents to point of OPS*AB. This is an extremely sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news? include, based on MLS. The data in this important variable because it shows s l u g = y s - paper focuses on free agents with six to whether salary arbitration eligible players maurybrownarbitration011910. ten years of MLS. The issue with choos- and free agents get paid the same amount Smith, R. S., & Ehrenberg, R. G. (2009). ing free agents using MLS criteria is that if they perform comparably. The regres- Modern Labor Economics: The- some players chose to sign multiyear con- sion shows that free agents get an addi- ory and Public Policy, Tenth tracts that spanned their last year(s) of tional $12,115 for each point of OPS*AB, Edition . Boston: Pearson Edu- salary arbitration into their first year(s) of with an R-Squared of 41.2%. The p-value cation, Inc., pg. 145 free agency. Since these players had their for this result is 2.6%, which indicates De Veaux, R. D., Velleman, P.F., & contracts determined on the basis of both that this is statistically significant. Bock, D. E. (2008). Stats: Data salary arbitration and free agency, they Under this regression it appears and Models, Second Edition. are not included. Therefore the free that free agents are compensated more Boston: Pearson Education, Inc., agents discussed in the rest of this paper than double for their performance when p.484 will refer to any free agent with six to ten compared to salary arbitration eligible years of MLS who did not sign a multi- players, but not for just being free agent Fall 2010 39
The Commitment Behind Fan Loyalty “I bleed red”
Leanne Westfall, ILR ‗11 [email protected]
Introduction and provide a step-by-step blueprint that aware of what each other is doing and allows us to classify fan allegiance as an feeling, and more aware of each other‘s ―I love the Red Sox as if they are affective commitment. The emotional awareness, they experience their shared my third parent... but they are the "fun" commitment is felt as a person-to-group emotion more intensely, as it comes to parent. Sometimes they punish you with a tie between an individual fan and his fel- dominate their awareness‖ (2004). Mem- loss, sometimes they make you proud low fans as a whole, leading the fans to bers unconsciously follow non-verbal with a World Series win or two consider themselves a cohesive social cues of their contemporaries – clapping, (2004&2007), but [regardless] the Red unit. Classifying sport fan commit- participating in established cheers, etc. – Sox are a huge part of my life‖ (Bridson ment is relevant as knowing the motiva- perpetuating the activity and creating a 2008). The most loyal of fans will com- tions behind an individual‘s decision to shared group culture. mit to a team through thick and thin, de- At the conclusion of a ritual, fending their players in losses and cele- group solidarity or a feeling of member- brating wildly when their team brings Fanship is not just about in- ship should be evident. An increase in home a win. The question is, why? Why dividual emotions, hopes, emotional energy, denoted by feelings of do people become fans? How do these elation, enthusiasm, and initiative in tak- fans become committed to a specific and dreams; it is about ing part, signal that the interaction was team? Why do some fans remain consist- sharing and relating one‟s successful. The attention given to a com- ently loyal while others switch teams feelings to the group as a munal ―sacred object‖ is also a sign of without reason? These questions pave the whole. group commitment, where a ―sacred ob- way towards understanding the motiva- ject‖ is any object that members associate tions behind the formation and sustain- with themselves collectively. Finally, at ment of sport fan commitment. join and remain in an organization will the conclusion of a successful ritual there Individuals become fans for allow leaders to manipulate these aspects is a feeling of moral rightness in adhering many reasons, with eustress (positive in order attract additional members. Spe- to the group‘s culture and committing to arousal), group affiliation, and geography cifically in the sports sector, classification fellow members (Collins 2004). Because as key motivators and prerequisites for of fan loyalty will allow for improved this theory depends on the importance of strong fan commitment. Affective fan marketing schemes for sport promotion. a sacred object and communal focus gen- commitment is generated through the erated through bodily presence, it can be recurrent action of participating in a Theory directly correlated with sport fan commit- shared activity, such as attending or ment where the team is the ―sacred ob- watching games with fellow fans, which Collins‘s theory of interaction ject‖ around which the social unit of fans unifies fans into a cohesive social unit. ritual chains explains that there is a spe- communally gathers. This social aspect of viewing revolves cific process containing causal connec- Lawler et al.‘s theory of social around the fact that the team is a sacred tions and feedback loops that precedes commitment overlaps with Collins‘s theo- object. As the action is repeated over group commitment. A ritual, according to ry in many respects while differing on time, individuals form both identities and Collins, is ―the process in which partici- others. Six main assumptions explain the social norms that govern their actions and pants develop a mutual focus of attention motivations behind group commitment interactions with other fans. This leads to and become entrained in each other‘s and rely upon the general observation that the creation of strong, person-to-group bodily micro-rhythms and emo- ―people are affective beings who respond affective ties to their fellow fans as a col- tions‖ (2004). This process has four initi- emotionally to their experiences in rela- lective, resulting in a stable social order ating conditions: physical group assem- tionships, groups, or organizations‖ espe- based on fan commitment. bly, barriers to outsiders, a common focus cially if a task is high in jointness (Lawler Randall Collins has studied ritu- of attention, and a shared mood (Collins et al. 2008 ): als and their impact on social orders 2004). These four ingredients are crucial while Lawler et al. have evaluated how prerequisites for instigating commitment 1. Social activities are interactive, joint shared activity and emotional attribution and as the ritual continues these elements activities exert influence on social commitments. will reinforce each other. Collins notes 2. Interactions generate positive and These well-developed theories serve as a that, ―As the persons become more tightly negative feelings guide for understanding sport fan loyalty focused on their common activity, more 3. Feelings are individually interpreted 40 Sports, Inc. General Sports
as rewards or punishment 4. People prefer to experience positive feelings or rewards. 5. Individuals strive to understand the cause of their emotions. 6. Emotions are contextually interpret- ed and attributed to other people or the group.
Additionally, when group tasks are indis- tinguishable from one another and there is a perception of shared responsibility, group members are more likely to attrib- ute emotions to the group. (Lawler et al. 2008). ―Simply put, the common theme here is that people become more socially and affectively committed to groups… within which they repeatedly or regularly experience positive emotions… [and] attribute these emotions to the social unit‖ (Lawler et al. 2008). Red Sox fans (shown here celebrating the team‘s 2004 World Series title) fulfill Col- lin‘s six assumptions behind group commitment. Defining Sport Fans and Fanship
Where a fan is ―an athlete re- twenty-plus runs in game three, and to affiliation, a type of group affiliation moved, and athlete in spirit, if not in have those miraculous comebacks was (2003). In contrast, other studies noted fact... [who] can enjoy the pleasures of insane. It was one of the happiest mo- that geographical location, not group af- victory, the sorrow of defeat, the tension ments of my life‖ (2008). It is important filiation, was at the heart of fan devotion of the climactic moment. … [and] share to note that, as a fan, Andrew expresses and that most fans identify with a team intense feelings with strangers who un- his emotions as a collective ―we.‖ Fan- because they live or have lived in the area derstand‖ (Jones, 2003), fanship is, ―an ship is not just about individual emotions, (Jacobson 2003). Each motivating factor affiliation in which a great deal of emo- hopes, and dreams; it is about sharing and juxtaposes with the social commitment tional significance and value are derived relating one‘s feelings to the group as a framework presented by Collins and from group membership‖ developed via whole. Lawler et al., and we see how intense the joint activity of social viewing An individual cannot be consid- fanship is promoted and sustained by (Jacobson 2003). Lawler et al‘s theory ered a full-fledged fan without invoking repeated interactions with both family stated that social commitment will occur and sustaining some form of social com- and friends who share a common love for as individuals attribute emotions to the mitment. This social commitment to fel- their team. organization, thus fans become commit- low fans is molded by participating in a Wann et al‘s research suggests ted as they share both the excitement and common activity, sharing a common fo- that many fans are excited by the nature sorrow with their fellow fans. cus, and attributing and expressing a wide of violent sports, thus experiencing eu- For example, Red Sox fans are scope of emotions during the sporting stress. They gain stimulation from yelling notoriously passionate about their fan- event. This recurrent interaction leads to at the players and conversing during play, ship. They feel each win or loss personal- the creation of group norms and social increasing their entertainment and emo- ly and are extremely vocal about their identities, both of which enable the emer- tional happiness (Wann et al. 2008). In opinions following the game. Andrew gence of a strong social commitment addition, team sports are associated with Bridson, a 19- year-old fan from Hano- (Lawler et al. 2008). many social activities such as tailgating ver, Massachusetts, recalls the sorrow and sport viewing parties. ―Under such after the Sox lost in 2003: ―Of course, Motivations for Becoming a Fan conditions, group norms may be estab- Aaron Boone‘s walk-off homerun in 2003 lished and even cherished, leading these was devastating. I can‘t even describe Daniel Wann et al. identifies fans of these sports to view the group- how depressing the next day was in eight motivational typologies:- escape, nature of the event as an important moti- school. Nobody talked, and everyone just economic, eustress (positive arousal), self vational factor‖ (Wann et al. 2008). When went through the motions. My French -esteem, group affiliation, entertainment, fans are cheering together, their eustress teacher cried‖ (Bridson 2008). However, family, and aesthetics wherein eustress is attributed to the interaction of their nothing matched their joy when the Red and group affiliation were found to be fellow fans and person-to-person ties Sox clinched a World Series title in 2004. prevailing factors in the consumption of begin to form between fan members. To Bridson recalls, ―When we won in ‘04, it non-stylistic, aggressive team sports such be clear though, this person-to-person tie was such a great feeling. We finally did as baseball, basketball, and football is made to the fellow fan only inasmuch it. Finally won, and especially the way we (2008). Melinda Jones‘s research con- as the fan is a member of the larger entity did it, when we came back from 0-3 in curred, showing that the most common of fans, and as such the tie would be bet- the series to the Yankees, who put up motivator for becoming a fan was family ter categorized as a person-to-group tie to Fall 2010 41 The Commitment Behind Fan Loyalty
gear [and] we bought all red food. How- ever, we hated watching the game with those awful Cleveland fans that didn't even have anything Indians at all. So, we had private, Red Sox-only parties in my room and watched it without those pos- ers. It was much better‖ (2008). Having a common respect and understanding for one‘s team helps fans connect, strength- ening their commitment. In addition to sharing one‘s fan- ship with friends, fans often pass on their love for a specific team and fan unit down through generations. Family motivation is another type of group affili- ation that is often the initial socializing factor for younger fans. Children are in- troduced to certain teams when parents or grandparents sit down to watch a game. In addition, many families take children to games in order to share their love of the sport or a specific team. There is the idea that parents can bond with their chil- dren through the shared love of a specific team. Most researchers noted that female children begin watching sports in an ef- fort to relate to male relatives including fathers, uncles, grandfathers, and brothers (Jacobson 2003). Fans can also be initially moti- vated by geographical factors. Many peo- ple are drawn to local teams because of the convenience factor; they have access to games and events. Researchers have also suggested that ―residents invest themselves in favor of their local athletic teams, partly because those teams are exponents of the community to which they feel themselves somehow bound… [a local team is] a means by which that community becomes conscious of itself Football fans may be attracted to the sport‘s violent nature, as well as tailgating and and achieves concrete representa- viewing parties. tion‖ (Jones 2003). Becoming a fan of a local team helps a fan achieve a sense of belonging in the community, or rather the collective fan following. Sport view- hugging and hand-slapping (Collins helps a fan create an identity that projects ing is seen as a joint activity in which 2004). This bodily presence is important one‘s love of a specific team to one‘s fellow fans can relate to one another and for sustaining team commitment. There fellow fans. This identity signals how that share their views on the game at the mo- also is a common culture present among fan wants to be interacted with, and as ment they occur, which highlights the fans that makes it more appealing to share community members interact through necessity of bodily presence. game experiences. Looking back at our participating at games and other fan Group affiliation as a byproduct original example, when asked if it en- events their commitment to each other of social viewing is an integral aspect of hanced the game to watch with fellow and the team will increase. sport fan culture as well. Jacobson notes fans Bridson replied, ―Personally, I enjoy These motivating factors them- in her research that there is a desire to be watching the games with other Sox fans. selves are not responsible for fan commit- with other people and experience a sense Last year when the Red Sox were playing ment; however they provide the initial of belonging while watching games Cleveland in the ALCS, I watched the interest that binds together fans of all (2003). Although fans are precluded from first couple games in the Mews Hall ages. As fans associate with one another approaching team members after a victo- lounge. There were four Sox fans: me, and share in the experiences of the game ry or defeat, individuals engage their fel- Jordan, Pat, and Julia. There were also setting, these initial factors take the low viewers by vocally sharing emotions two Cleveland fans and two anti-Sox backseat to strong affective team commit- and participating in bodily contact such as fans. The Red Sox people were all in Sox ment. Bridson notes that, ―certainly, if I 42 Sports, Inc. General Sports did not grow up in Boston and my parents social identities resulting in a conformity volve a tie based on sentiment and nor- weren't fans, there is nothing else that ties to group norms‖ allowing a person-to- mative beliefs about the group as a whole me really to the team--but I am not a fan group tie to form with fellow fans and (Lawler et al. 2008). Because of the so- simply because I live in Boston and my increasing the commitment one feels to cial aspect of sport viewing, ―sport fans parents are fans‖ (2008). Instead Bridson both the team and fellow fans (End 2002). from the start are encouraged to display is a fan because of the sheer number of Fans that boast high levels of identifica- emotions, approbation, and partisanship fellow fans in the New England area. He tion will exhibit high intensity and vice in an open and free-playing man- reveals that, ―Of the very many things versa. Each win or loss will be felt per- ner‖ (Kennedy, 2001). This freedom to that set people apart in Massachusetts, the sonally. An individual with lower identi- express emotions and negotiate relation- Red Sox are something that brings every- fication is able to ―cut off reflected fail- ships with other unknown fans creates an one together. Your friends talk about it, ure‖ by publically distancing oneself arena in which fans participate ―because your parents talk about it, your teachers they want to.‖ The instrumental gains are talk about it, you turn on the radio (and few; unless fans engage in gambling there not just sports talk, but regular music is no other reason to participate other than stations too) and they talk about the Sox. “If life equals fun and fun the fun and enjoyment of being present The Boston news media is enamored with equals the Red Sox, then in with friends and family and sharing a the Red Sox‖ (2008). Collins‘s theory my book the Red Sox equal favored pastime. As a fan, Bridson sums tells us that it is this common focus and life.” it up by saying that , ―The Red Sox are the communication regarding this focus the embodiment of fun. You never know that helps cement sport fan commitment. what to expect; when Pedro will be taped The fans relay a ―common mood‖ that to the dugout, when Nomar will stop his emanates from their emotional reaction to from one‘s team and fellow fans; howev- crazy routine, or what Kevin Millar will the team‘s actions. When all of the fans er, high identifying sport fans are unable say next. The best way to describe it... is share this ―common mood‖ there is an to cut off reflected failure and may be really that it is just a "fun" thing to increase feeling of group solidarity. forced to use alternate methods for coping do‖ (2008). There is no transactional ben- with social identity threat (End 2002). efit for a sport fan; they are committed Formation of Social Identities This high level of identification simply because they love being also helps explain why some fans may with their fellow fans. This interaction of shared emo- switch teams frequently, while others Most individuals see sport fan tion with family and friends leads to the remain loyal even after years of loses. commitment as a bond between the fan creation of both social identities and Red Sox fans in particular are known for and his or her team; however, this re- norms, both of which act as vehicles for their high levels of identification and search has shown that the fans alone fan commitment. It is important to under- commitment. In our example, Bridson make up the social unit, not the fans and stand that individuals may have many demonstrates this intense social identity the team. Collins‘ and Lawler et al.‘s the- different identities and people will act in and commitment stating, ―There is always ories have demonstrated that affective accord with whatever identity meets the this tendency to ‗believe‘… that eventual- commitments form when participants given situation. Often individuals will ly the Red Sox would do it. It‘s very dif- engage in a shared activity that revolves seek out situations in which they can in- ferent with the Red Sox than the Bruins, around a ―sacred object‖ and attribute teract with the identity they are most Celtics, and to a lesser extent the Patriots. their emotions to the group as a whole. In committed to. These identities ―enable When those teams lose or have a string of a sport setting, the participants are the people to reliably anticipate each other‘s bad seasons, they lose some support. The fans. They go to games together, or at the behavior, thereby underlying or strength- Red Sox don‘t. People still watch the very least watch games via television ening normative and trust expecta- games and still pay $90 to park in order with family and friends, to celebrate the tions‖ (Lawler et al. 2008). As people to go see them play‖ (2008). Because Red team‘s wins and mourn the team‘s losses. form behavioral expectations and norms Sox fans have extremely salient social They treat the players and team simply as based upon their peers‘ identities, they identities and high levels of intensity they a sacred object, symbolic of their social will begin to categorize their fellow indi- are able to maintain a strong commitment identity. As they recognize this feeling of viduals into in-groups and out-groups between fans even during their team‘s dry membership, they begin to share emotion- based upon similarity. ―An important spells. al connections; they collectively feel hap- implication is that if two or more people py when their team wins and unanimous- perceive themselves as a group, they act Results: Affective Commitment and ly despair when their team loses. All of in a goal-oriented way without interacting Social Order these elements culminate in the recogni- with each other and without collective tion of an established social order where goals‖ (Lawler et al. 2008). This explains Social identities provide fans members are individual fans connected why sport fans can act as a unit and have with a reason and a mode for communi- through affective social ties. At no point strong commitments to their fellow fans cating with their fellow fans, and as fans is there a tie or commitment made to the without actually knowing each and every interact with each other they begin to team or individual players. Fans almost fan personally. develop a relationship.. Their choice to never have the option of personally inter- Identification is strongly corre- remain a fan through both good times and acting with players. Teams are simply lated to commitment intensity as well. A bad times is based on affective ties be- seen as a vehicle for uniting fans into a sport setting breaks down individuality tween these fans, referred to as social collective body. which ―increases the salience of one‘s commitment. Social commitments in- Fall 2010 43 The Commitment Behind Fan Loyalty
create advertisements reminding fans of Sources: the importance and the excitement of participating in games with other fans, Bridson, Andrew. (2008). Interview. Cor- resulting in increased business and prof- nell University. Ithaca, NY. its. Television stations can also use bodily Collins, Randall. (2004). ―The Mutual presence to their advantage. Television Focus/Emotional Entrainment relies on ―fans-in-presence to create the Model.‖ Chapter 2 in R. Col- necessary environment for TV fans-in lins (ed.), Interaction Ritual absence‖ (Kennedy 2001). By filming the Chains. Princeton University fans at the games in addition to the play- Press. ers they authenticate the ―aliveness‖ of End, Christian Michael. (2002). ―The the game for those fans watching from influence of ingroup/outgroup home, allowing them to feel like they are norms on sport fans' ag- there (Kennedy 2001). gressive responses to social These marketing schemes are identity threat.‖ Ph.D. disserta- able to use elements of fan commitment tion, Miami University, Unit- to increase their profitability and, as a ed States -- Ohio. Retrieved Oc- byproduct, enhance fan commitment as tober 16, 2008, from Disserta- well. tions & Theses: Full Text database. (Publication No. Conclusion AAT 3043064). The NBA store website is one outlet that Jacobson, Beth Pamela. (2003). ―Rooting may seek to capitalize on fan‘s desire to Fan commitment can be hard to for laundry: An examination of affirm their team commitments through understand initially; yet, after breaking the creation and maintenance physical merchandise. this loyalty down, we can relate it to af- of a sport fan identity.‖Ph.D. fective social commitments that occur dissertation, The University of every day and see why fans are so attract- Connecticut, United States - Business and Marketing Implications ed to the world of sports. Fans enter this - Connecticut. Retrieved October unique culture in which they are free to 16, 2008, from Dissertations Though an understanding of express emotions, negotiate relationships & Theses: Full Text data- sport fan commitment is applicable across with other fans, and create and maintain base. (Publication No. AAT many different sectors, it is most useful in social identities that are completely dif- 3118954). allowing ―sport marketers to tailor their ferent than the identities assumed during Jones, Melinda Jo. (2003). ―The meaning promotional methods and marketing strat- everyday life. Geography, eustress, and of sport-related events in the egies to the [prevailing] motivations group affiliation attract people to sporting process of becoming and being [behind sport fan commitment]‖ (Wann et events where fans develop identities and a fan: A grounded theory study al. 2008). Research shows that fans need norms through repeated interaction in a of highly committed sport positive, concurrent interaction to form shared activity. They learn how to read fans.‖Ph.D. dissertation, The identities and strengthen commitment. each other‘s body language and interact University of Tennessee, United Using the knowledge that group affilia- on a common level. As their lives become States -- Tennessee. Retrieved tion is a crucial motivator, sport market- intertwined they begin attributing emo- October 16, 2008, from ers can ―look at promoting activities and/ tions, both positive and negative, to their ABI/INFORM Global database. or events that facilitate enhanced opportu- collective group of fellow fans. During (Publication No. AAT 3119285). nities to interact and bond with other fans, each of these steps, fans become more Kennedy, Dennis. (2001). ―Sports and such as ―tailgating‖ activities, team ral- and more committed to their fellow view- Shows: Spectators in Contempo- lies, or other interaction opportuni- ers and as their commitment grows it be- rary Culture.‖ Theatre Re- ties‖ (Wann et al. 2008). In addition, we comes a way of life. As one final exam- search International. 26(3). 277- saw that a sacred object was extremely ple, Bridson sums up his feelings on be- 284. important in cementing and communi- ing a Red Sox fan saying, ―If life equals Lawler, Thye, and Yoon. (2008). Social cating fan identities. In our example, we fun and fun equals the Red Sox, then in Commitments in A Depersonal- saw how important Red Sox gear was to my book the Red Sox equal life‖ (2008). ized World. Pp. 50-114. Bridson in affirming his identity as a fan Such is the case with many fans, and un- Wann, Daniel L., Frederick G. Grieve, and his distain of Indians fans that had no derstanding this process will help us un- Ryan K. Zapalac, and Dale G. symbols to represent their affiliation. derstand more about commitment and Pease. (2008). ―Motivational Knowing this will help sport gear manu- society in general. Profiles of Sport Fans of Different facturers estimate the style and amount of Sports.‖ Sport Marketing Quarterly. sport merchandise to produce and the The author adapted this article from a 17(1). 6-19. season and location in which to sell it. paper she submitted for academic credit Last, but not least, Collins com- in ILROB 2225: Commitments to Groups municated the importance of bodily pres- and Organizations in fall 2008. ence in sustaining group commitment. This information will allow stadiums to 44 Sports, Inc.
The Dodgers Move West A history of negotiating franchise relocation
Pyrs Carvolth, ILR ‗11, Gabe Gershenfeld, ILR ‗11, Michelle McCutcheon-Schour, CIPA ‗11, & Rustin Rodewald, ILR ‗11 [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], & [email protected]
Any Cleveland Browns, Montre- and New York City planner Robert Mo- al Expos, Hartford Whalers, or Seattle ses. Historians and sports fans argue Supersonics fan knows the loss of seeing whether it was O‘Malley or Moses who their team relocate. The Dodgers are a ultimately was to blame for the eventual particularly interesting story, as they were departure of the Dodgers, but it is clear the first MLB organization to move west that neither of them paid much attention and the last MLB organization to move to the emotional connection of the Dodg- spring training west. From Brooklyn to ers to Brooklyn (Greenburg, 2009). Los Angeles in 1958 and then Vero Beach, Florida to Glendale, Arizona in City Perspective: Moses Takes on 2008, negotiations played a determinant O’Malley role for the Dodgers organization. This article focuses on these two negotiations, move major league sports past the Missis- Team owner Walter O‘Malley providing insight into the process by sippi River (Euchner, 1993). In this con- knew that in order to remain a financially which moves happened then and now. text, the Brooklyn Dodgers found them- viable business, the Dodgers would need The first move west to LA was selves at an important crossroads: the to build a new stadium. O‘Malley envi- marked by personal emotions, while the team had won their first World Series in sioned a geodesic dome stadium to be second move west to Glendale was a 1955, but was witnessing a decline in built at Atlantic and Flatbush Avenues in more formal negotiation bounded by popularity and support. Brooklyn, but was met with fierce re- monetary reasoning. Furthermore, this Ebbets Field, home of the Dodg- sistance by city planner Robert Moses. second move took place 50 years later, ers, was relatively small, run-down and Moses served as the head of twelve New among vastly smaller cities, involving attendance at home games was dwindling. York City planning agencies and was different club and city officials, and con- The field had only seven hundred parking thought to be the most powerful man in cerning fundamentally different functions spots for 32,000 seats (Ardolino, 2008). the city when it came to urban develop- (permanent residence versus spring train- The stadium was also surrounded by de- ment (Ardolino, 2008). Moses insisted ing). Still, both relocations required sim- velopment, so there was no room to add that the stadium be built in Flushing ultaneous negotiations between two cities seats or parking spots. Compounding Meadows, Queens, and refused to enter- (the city the organization was leaving and these problems, the Dodgers‘ fan base tain O‘Malley‘s plans. Both men became the city they were transitioning to), ex- was largely moving out of the city and locked into their positions, rather than tending two analytical perspectives: a city into the suburbs of Long Island; fans in taking a problem-solving approach to -government perspective and a team per- the suburbs found themselves unable to bargaining. (Lewicki, Barry, & Saunders, spective. These dynamics provide practi- attend games due to the inaccessibility of 2010, p. 166). These negative feelings cal examples of negotiating theory in- Ebbets Field (Kahn, 1972). Ticket sales only grew as the two parties continued cluding, how parties establish and evalu- were leveling off, and even in their 1955 negotiations, communicating through ate a best alternative to a negotiated World Series championship season, fans written letters: agreement (BATNA), how emotions and filled an average of only half the stadi- economics influence the negotiating pow- um‘s capacity (Sullivan, 1987). Further- It is obviously your er structure, and the intricacies of intra- more, the team‘s ―Boys of Summer‖ stars thought that we can were nearing retirement and the manage- organizational processes. somehow go out and ment predicted that revenue would de- condemn property for a cline as the team lost its top talent and The Brooklyn Dodgers new Dodger field just had to re-build (Sullivan,1987). where you want…this In the 1950‘s the United States In hindsight, these issues fore- is absolutely out of the was going through a transformation. shadow the Dodger‘s exit from Brooklyn question…a matter of Economic growth occurred throughout in 1958, as a round of emotional and tedi- common sense (R. Mo- the nation, especially in the South and the ous negotiations failed to keep the team ses, personal communi- West. These factors placed pressure on in its native city. The two main actors cation, October 20, city officials and the sports industry to were Dodgers‘ owner Walter O‘Malley 1953).
Fall 2010 45 The Dodgers Move West
As suggested by this letter Mo- and American league officials, however, need to be approved by the electorate. ses wrote directly to O‘Malley, the emo- did not feel that any of the Triple-A teams Thus, when O‘Malley announced he was tional aspect of the negotiations made were strong enough to carry a Major willing to fund his own stadium, the offi- conflict personal. Moses was focused on League title (Sullivan, 1987). cials involved were ecstatic—a compli- his grand plans to re-shape New York. By 1956, most West Coast offi- cated negotiation was avoided (Sullivan, He was determined to build a new ball- cials had given up on the idea of convert- 1987). park in Queens and did not care if it was ing a Triple-A team—so their alternatives While O‘Malley appeared enthu- inaccessible to the Brooklyn Dodgers fan were limited. Los Angeles Councilman siastic to the LA officials, he still publi- base (Greenburg, 2009). O‘Malley was Kenneth Hahn and Mayor Norris Poulson cally stated he would not move the Dodg- looking for the best possible deal for his were intent on beating out West Coast ers out of Brooklyn. He was afraid that if team. Moses was assuming O‘Malley competitors for the first franchise. Initial- the team or fans were to find out about was dependent on him to get a new stadi- ly, Hahn approached the owner of the the pending move, it would harm the um, thereby overestimating his own pow- Washington Senators, Calvin Griffith. 1957 season (Johnson & Stout, 2004). er in the negotiation process (Bacharach The Senators were experiencing dwin- O'Malley‘s reluctance to publicize his & Lawler, 1986). According to author dling public support and were searching negations signaled to LA officials that he Michael Shapiro, ―had Moses been agree- for a new home. However, when Hahn was not as committed to the move as he able, the world would heard the Dodgers appeared to be. Ironically, this gave have never been were considering a O‘Malley more power and LA became turned on its head Moses was assuming move, he changed his more and more accommodating as negoti- and the Dodgers O‟Malley was depend- mind and approached ations continued (Johnson & Stout, would not have ent on him to get a new Walter O‘Malley 2004). In New York City, however, left‖ (Shapiro, 2003). stadium, thereby over- (Johnson & Stout, O‘Malley‘s negotiating power was dwin- O ‘ M a l l e y 2004). dling. eventually tried to estimating his own Originally, O‘Malley In New York, O‘Malley was not circumvent Moses power in the negotia- resisted meeting with receiving favorable responses from city and arrange a deal to tions process. Hahn, but following officials. One reason other New York build a ballpark on Hahn‘s unexpected officials were indifferent towards his selected site any- attendance at the O‘Malley‘s mounting struggle with Mo- ways, but Moses was able to use his bu- 1956 World Series, O‘Malley agreed to ses was due to the fact that very few took reaucratic authority to thwart O‘Malley meet with him. According to Hahn, his threat to relocate seriously. The belief (Greenburg, 2009). The failed negotia- O‘Malley showed great enthusiasm to- that the Dodgers would never leave, com- tions led to a deep seated hatred between wards a move to LA during their meeting. bined with the fact that O‘Malley had O‘Malley and Moses, and O‘Malley Over the next few months, O‘Malley con- kept his discussions with LA secret, eventually began to pursue options out- vinced LA officials that they would not greatly weakened O‘Malley‘s negotiating side of New York City. Both for finan- need to financially support him as they power in NY. As Euchner (1993) states: cial reasons and to avoid Moses‘ influ- would with other teams. All O‘Malley ence, O‘Malley would eventually re- wanted was for the city to provide the City officials were so evaluate his alternatives (or BATNA) and land and he would finance and construct confident that the focus his resources on moving the organi- the stadium (Johnson & Stout, 2004). Dodgers would stay in zation to a more favorable city (Fisher & While LA wanted to be the first Brooklyn that they were Ury, 1991). West Coast city to host a Major League not aggressive in their Baseball team for political and develop- negotiations… the Team Perspective: O’Malley Looks ment reasons, there were economic re- city‘s disbelief of the West straints. During the city‘s initial discus- Dodgers‘ threat to ‗exit‘ sion with O‘Malley, Poulson commis- reduced the impact of O‘Malley and the Dodgers re- sioned a review of a plot of land, known the team‘s ‗voice‘ in ceived solicitation from Los Angeles, as the Chavez Ravine (Sullivan, 1987). lobbying the city (p.18). which viewed the recent relocations of The Chavez Ravine was owned by the other MLB teams to developing cities as city and, for years, officials had been en- Therefore, when O‘Malley finally did an opportunity to land their own fran- trenched in a political debate regarding its decide to exercise his BATNA and move chise. During the early 1950‘s two failing future (Euchner, 1993). the Dodgers to Los Angeles after the baseball franchises, the Boston Braves When the city found that the plot 1957 season, New York officials as well and the Philadelphia Athletics, moved of land was physically sound for a sports as Brooklyn fans were shocked. Los An- further into the center of the country to arena, many saw it as a perfect spot for a geles delivered what Moses refused to: Milwaukee and Kansas City, respectively Major League Baseball stadium free land (at the Chavez Ravine) and the (Euchner, 1993). With similar aspira- (Sullivan, 1987). To build a stadium, autonomy to design a stadium without tions, other West Coast cities were vying however, it was estimated that Mayor government meddling. Ultimately, to be the first city to attract an MLB fran- Poulson would need to set aside at least O‘Malley valued the move to a stadium chise. Some officials had hoped that they $2 million from his budget in the next of his own design in LA and control over would be able to convert a Triple-A team year. In addition, extra funds would need all its revenue streams more than he did into a Major League team. The National to be taken out in bonds, which would the aging Ebbets field or proposed Flush-
46 Sports, Inc. MLB ing Meadows plot in Queens. Among Brooklyn fans, O‘Malley became a vil- lainous figure whose name was held in contempt with the likes of Hitler and Sta- lin (Ardolino, 2008). The Dodgers would go on to bring numerous pennants home to Los Angeles, while Ebbets field was demolished and replaced with a low- income housing apartment building.
From Vero Beach to Glendale
The Dodgers relocation to Los Dodgers owner Walter O‘Malley had a contentious relationship with New York city plan- Angeles would carry implications for ner Robert Moses (left), but reached agreement with businessmen Bud Holman (right) to another aspect of the franchise, another hold spring training in the ―friendly‖ city of Vero Beach, Florida. city, another loyal fan base, and another round of negotiations. Vero Beach is a still pay a dollar per year and would have [upgrades, much more than any other small town on the central east coast of to upgrade their own facilities in ex- team]. And because the Dodgers missed Florida. With a population of 3,600 after change for a minimum number of exhibi- the World Series in 1950, O‘Malley felt it WWII, the town was originally known for tion games and gate receipts from one. cost the club a million dollars‖ (Johnson, its citrus products, its Naval Air Station When the Dodgers‘ big-league team 2008, p. 33). O‘Malley bought out Rick- built for the war, and holding the county moved to LA in 1958, many questioned ey‘s ownership share in 1950, and the seat of Indian River County. Bud Hol- whether Florida was the logical spring- new General Manager, Buzzie Bavasi, man was a local businessman who had training location for a West Coast fran- ―convinced O‘Malley that Dodgertown turned the air station into an airfield—two chise. Uncertainty grew in 1960 when the was worth it, that extensive instruction thousand acres, sixty miles of streets, four FAA investigated the city‘s original lease got players to the majors faster, and that runways, and hundreds of buildings— to Holman and subsequent lease to the they could be showcased at the camp and which was then leased back to him by the Dodgers. This turned into a four-year sold to other teams‖ (Johnson, 2008, p. city (Johnson, 2008). legal and political dispute that was finally 36). Buzzie Bavasi recalls that O‘Malley The Brooklyn Dodgers had pre- solved when the Dodgers bought all 110 told him to ―sell enough ball players each season training in twelve different towns acres of Dodgertown from the city for year to pay for the operation of Dodger- and cities throughout the South and Car- $134,000 (Johnson, 2008). town‖ (Bavasi, 1987, p. 39). ibbean, but in 1947 General Manager The O‘Malley family sold the During the FAA dispute in the Branch Rickey was looking to establish a team to FOX Corporation in 1997, and early 1960s, rumors that the Dodgers ―baseball college atmosphere‖ that would Arizona cities and Las Vegas immediate- lease was being cancelled led Dodger be the first of its kind to bring together all ly began to make offers to host spring publicist Red Patterson to state that of his minor and major leaguers. Bud training. In 2000, the Vero Beach City ―already cities in Florida, California, Ne- Holman knew little about baseball, but he Council and Indian River County Com- vada, and Arizona were offering training heard through mutual friends that the mission kept the Dodgers in town by buy- sites to the Dodgers‖ (Johnson, 2008). Dodgers were looking for a permanent ing the land and facilities for $19 million Johnson writes that during this time, training home. At Holman‘s invite, and leasing it back to the team for twenty O‘Malley told the city council that: Branch Rickey toured the abandoned air years at a dollar per year. However, the station and saw potential in its open fields FOX Corporation sold the team to Frank The Dodgers spent $3 and barracks. Driven by the strong per- McCourt in 2003, and in 2007 he broke million in developing sonalities of Holman and Rickey, both the contract to move the Dodgers to Glen- Dodgertown and re- sides ―quietly‖ reached an agreement that dale, Arizona and a $76 million facility ceived in return only would not be announced to the press until (Johnson, 2008). $122,000 from exhibi- eleven months later (Johnson, 2008). The tion games during their team pledged to upgrade the buildings, Team Perspective: The 20-Year Lease fourteen years in Vero. fields, and facilities necessary in ex- Other teams paid rent, change for a one dollar per year lease plus Since the very beginning of but they didn‘t have to a donation of one exhibition game gate Dodgertown, team executives have ques- pay to build facilities receipts to the city‘s airport fund tioned the value of the facility. Branch (Johnson, 2008). (Johnson, 2008). Rickey was the camp‘s main architect and This original agreement laid the proponent, but Walter O‘Malley—who As a point of comparison, Fort Lauder- foundations for future negotiations. In originally had the same ownership per- dale had recently built a $750,000 stadi- 1953, the Dodgers built Holman field centage as Rickey—was in charge of fi- um for the Yankees, Clearwater provided (named in honor of Bud Holman) for nances and continuously asked if the ex- a $400,000 field for the Phillies, and Sar- $100,000 and agreed with the city to a penses were worth it. Dodgertown chron- asota spent $200,000 to improve their twenty-year lease with a twenty-year op- icler Rody Johnson writes, ―Rickey was park to get the White Sox (Johnson, tion (Johnson, 2008). The team would spending $250,000 a year on Dodgertown 2008). Despite this context, the deal that
Fall 2010 47 The Dodgers Move West
(Johnson, 2008). When Boston developer Frank McCourt bought the team in 2003, Dodgertown‘s days became numbered. The cities of Glendale and Goodyear, Arizona, made offers, and in November 2007 the team signed an MOA to move spring training to Glendale for the 2009 season. The Dodgers would share a $76 million facility with the White Sox, $50 million of which would come from the Arizona Sports and Tourist Authority (Johnson, 2008). Later it became known that Glendale gave the Dodgers the option to buy 30 acres of downtown land as an investment, at current market value (Johnson, 2008). Frank McCourt had in fact initiated this discussion himself; he could do this because Glendale had al- ready committed to having both teams. McCourt would later say, ―This is not an Baseball fans and media described Dodgertown as the best spring training facility in the economic decision. This is a fan conven- majors for its access to the players (note the open-air dugouts). ience decision,‖ yet in the end the Dodg- ers moved because both of these interests resolved the dispute called for the Dodg- that they didn‘t want to leave were aligned (Johnson, 2008, p. 247). ers to pay the city $134,000 for the land. Vero‖ (Johnson, 2008, p. 192). Fort Clearly, the Dodgers valued the Dodger- McDowell‘s offer began to weaken as the City Perspective: Vero Loses Its Grip town community they had created more estimated cost of the facility increased to than the money they could have received $50 million and an Arizona law, which Dodgertown originated from from potential alternatives. was expected to fund the construction, mutual convenience; the Dodgers found But with the big-league team on failed to pass (Johnson, 2008). Johnson their perfect practice facility, while the analyzes how this deteriorating BATNA the west coast, a spring training home in town needed to find a use for the airfield affected the Dodgers‘ negotiations with Florida no longer made as much sense for and sought the big-league team‘s publici- the city: ―As the Dodgers‘ negotiation the Dodgers. In 1957, rumors first spread ty. As the Dodgers‘ needs changed and leverage with Vero Beach began to weak- that ―Dodgertown would be a ghost town they received more and more attractive within a year and that California would en… one thing became certain; the Dodg- offers from more fan-friendly cities, the be the training base for the entire Dodger ers had no choice but to train in Vero city couldn‘t simply offer dollar-a-year organization.‖ (Johnson, 2008, p. 63) another year‖ (Johnson, 2008, p. 193). leases anymore. Now that local govern- Forty-two years later, Arizona officials The next year, Las Vegas be- ment was pressured to produce a competi- asked LA fans if they ―would rather fly came the home of the Dodgers‘ AAA tive offer, how did the town, county, and across the country to a fifty-year old fa- team and provided the franchise with state evaluate the economic and emotion- cility or take a one-hour flight to a new another spring training alternative. A al value of the Dodgers to all of its citi- one?‖ (Johnson, 2008, p. 193) The team rumor circulated that the Nevada city zens? had to compare all of the Dodgers fans would offer the Dodgers a $5 million Since their arrival, the Dodgers who could attend spring training in Arizo- bonus to relocate (Johnson, 2008). Dodg- were intertwined with the small town of na (but not Florida) against the old ers President Bob Graziano inspected Vero Beach. The Press Journal said the Brooklyn Dodgers fans in Florida (who potential sites and said, ―Our reaction is five thousand fans who watched the first that it‘s real… But we are not intent on were growing older). game in 1948 were the ―largest crowd In 1998, right after FOX bought leaving Vero Beach. We just have to ever to assemble for any event in this the team, the Fort McDowell Yavapai- compare alternatives‖ (Johnson, 2008, p. city,‖ and the day was ―probably the big- 199). Clearly, the Dodger‘s attraction to Apache Indian Reservation offered to gest day in the history of Vero Vero is only relative to the other options build the Dodgers a $20 million spring Beach‖ (Johnson, 2008, p. 18). Overall, on the table. Vero Beach responded with training facility (Johnson, 2008). De- the newspaper praised Dodgertown for a $19 million buyout: $10 million for the spite the change in ownership, many in bringing ―publicity worth thousands of the Dodgers organization did not want to property, $7 million for facility improve- dollars‖ (Johnson, 2008, p. 22). As exam- leave Vero Beach; Dodger legend Tom- ments, and a $2 million capital reserve. ples of the Dodgers‘ connection to the This offer was slightly greater than the my Lasorda met with Florida Governor town, the Dodger‘s Dodgertown director $18 million that Kissimmee, Florida and Jeb Bush to ask for state money to remain relocated his family to Vero Beach be- Clearwater, Florida spent for the Astros in Vero Beach, and the Vero Beach Press cause he ―liked the friendship of the local and Phillies, respectively, but less than Journal reported ―a feeling existed people,‖ shortstop Pee Wee Reese joined among many in the Dodger organization the combined $48 million Surprise, Ari- the local country club, and pitcher zona spent for the Royals and Rangers 48 Sports, Inc. MLB
Preacher Roe fished with local business- the emotional connection of Dodgertown. million (per team) agreements seemed to men and even won the Indian River Economic Development Director Milt have resonated as comparables in the County fishing tournament. Thomas remembered when his parents official‘s minds (Bazerman & Neale, One story from 1951 shows the used to bowl with Dodgers outfielder 1992). $10.5 million came from a tourist direct economic impact of the team. Un- Wally Moon, and said, ―The Dodgers are and sales tax bond, $7.1 million came fortunately, the mayor of Vero had ex- part of our culture. It would be like tak- from federal legislation, and $1.4 million pressed to the Dodgers concern about ing the Metropolitan Museum out of New emptied out the City of Vero Beach re- ―the growing number of blacks on the York… The Dodgers are as much a part serve fund (Johnson, 2008). It would team‖ and ―worry about our young wom- of Vero Beach as the Ocean‖ (Johnson, have been difficult for the city to offer en.‖ In response, General Manager 2008, p. 188). One Press-Journal editorial any more, but the total was very compara- Buzzie Bavasi sent his traveling secretary compared the Dodgers-Vero relationship ble to other Dodgers‘ offers and other to Miami to get $20,000 exchanged into to a ―love affair,‖ and its breakup like team agreements. Despite all the eco- two-dollar bills, which the O‘Malley and ―leaving your spouse after fifty nomic studies and emotional accounts, it Bavasi families stamped Dodgers logos years‖ (Johnson, 2008, p. 177). appears as if the county‘s offer was simp- onto throughout the night. That weekend, Despite these strong feelings, the ly the most they could afford to offer. O‘Malley closed the Dodgertown cafete- town‘s sentiment was not unanimous. By the time the Dodgers did ria, gave the players the bills, and told The intra-organizational bargaining pro- move, the economic and emotional con- them to eat out in the community. As the cess of the city was one of the strongest nection appeared to have faded. Los An- story goes, the mayor called Bavasi Mon- factors in determining whether the Dodg- geles Daily News writer Tony Jackson day morning and said, ―I get your ers would stay. Businessman and long- wrote that only the Red Sox games sold point‖ (Johnson, 2008, pp. 37-8). In this time activist Frank Zorc opposed the out anymore and that, ―the bond between minor conflict between the city and team, county‘s $19 million bid MOU, saying the Dodgers and the city clearly isn‘t the Dodger‘s economic value to this small ―the very idea of a community what it used to be‖ (Johnson, 2008, p. Florida town could speak for itself. [providing] financial support for a private 242). The looming threats to vacate may Community leaders formed the sports business is an abomina- have worn down some spirits, as well as ―Keep Our Dodgers Com- changing demographics. mittee‖ in 1998 in response Scripps Howard sports to the Fort McDowell bid Both Vero Beach and the many cities that de- columnist Ray McNulty wrote that Vero Beach (Johnson, 2008). The group sired the Dodgers attempted to quantify the po- oversaw an economic esti- was ―no longer a mostly mate that placed the value of tential impact of the team on their cities and seasonal, otherwise- the team to the community at offer economic incentives accordingly. obscure small town $30 million, considering the dominated by hard-core weak local economy and the Dodger fans‖ (Johnson, double-digit unemployment in the off- tion‖ (Johnson, 2008, p. 201). Zorc him- 2008, p. 242). Having already offered as season (Johnson, 2008). This value was self ran for county commission, objecting much as they reasonably could and in the $5 million greater than the estimated val- to the bid process where local officials midst of waning citizen activism, Vero ue of the Mets to nearby Port St. Lucie, left no time for discussion or voter ap- Beach had no choice but to watch the and $10 million greater than a Press proval (Johnson, 2008). A mere ninety Dodgers leave Dodgertown. Journal assessment the same year. The votes out of sixteen thousand cast separat- Press Journal broke down the estimate: ed Zorc from the incumbent, who sup- Conclusion: Bottom of the Ninth $1.5 million Dodgers‘ payroll for 275 full ported the purchase of Dodgertown, by -time and 200 seasonal employees, (Johnson, 2008). Many were surprised at The two rounds of negotiations $317,000 annual property tax, $300,000 the close result, as this county commis- encompassing the Dodgers‘ westward annual purchases from local businesses, sion election was essentially the bid refer- movement illustrate principles of negotia- $70,000 annual local charitable donations endum that had never taken place. De- tions that are relevant for all sports fran- (including $20,000 to Dodgertown Ele- spite the narrow margin and lack of align- chises. ment, the incumbent commissioner went mentary School), and all of the remaining The negotiations between Walter tourism dollars from fans (Johnson, ahead with the offer. O‘Malley and Robert Moses offer insight 2008). Bud Holman‘s son, Bump, said How was the $19 million bid into the implications of emotion in nego- that by having the Dodgers, ―the time value determined? Indian River County tiation and its corresponding effect on the table for the development of the area has Administrator Jim Chandler said that the negotiating power structure and pro- been advanced by at least 20 years,‖ com- Las Vegas bonus would have no impact cess. The negotiations surrounding the pared to neighboring towns (Johnson, on the county‘s position, and that the move from Brooklyn to Los Angeles best 2008, p. 160). The committee estimated county had ―no intention of getting into a approximated a two-party negotiation that during the 1994 players strike, when bidding war‖ (Johnson, 2008, p. 199). Yet between O‘Malley and Moses. While spring training was pushed back and his offer was in the same range as other other parties had a vested interest, the shortened, ―local merchants, hotels, and recent city and team agreements. Experts negotiations themselves revolved around restaurants suffered‖ an estimated $2 mil- point out the importance of using readily these two primary actors. Individual lion loss (Johnson, 2008). ―available‖ information as anchors in emotion played a large role in these nego- The Committee also focused on negotiation, and the recent $18 and $24 tiations as both parties resented each oth-
Fall 2010 49 The Dodgers Move West er and each man had a vastly different tablishing the value of the Dodger organi- Getting to Yes: Negotiating assessment of their bargaining power. zation to both parties. Much more atten- Agreement Without Further, O‘Malley‘s secrecy in his negoti- tion was paid to the economic value of Giving In (Second Edition). New ations with LA only bolstered New York having a spring training camp located in a York: Penguin USA. officials‘ confidence that the Dodgers city. Both Vero Beach and the many cit- Greenburg, Z. O. (2009). Who Framed would remain in Brooklyn. This aspect of ies that desired the Dodgers attempted to Walter O'Malley? Forbes.com. the negotiations further clouded the distri- quantify the potential impact of the team Retrieved May 12, 2010, bution of power, as a BATNA only pro- on their cities and offer economic incen- from http:// vides leverage to one party when the oth- tives accordingly. Though the Dodgers www.forbes.com/2009/04/14/ er is aware of the alternative (Lewicki et arrival in Vero Beach was linked to per- brooklyn-dodgers-stadium- al, 2010). The economics of the 1950s sonal relationships and a qualitative as- lifestyle-sports-baseball may also have played a role in framing sessment of the area, their departure was -stadiums.html the negotiations toward a more personal, marked by larger economic forces. Greenburg, R. (Producer). (July 2007). relationship-based model as observed in Brooklyn Dodgers: Ghosts of New York. The authors adapted this article from a Flatbush [Motion pic- The story of the Vero Beach paper they submitted for academic credit ture]. USA: HBO Sports. negotiations compares the changing dy- in ILRLR 6011: Negotiation — Theory & Johnson, Richard A. & Glenn, Stout. namics between a sports team and its city Practice in spring 2010. (2004). The Dodgers: 120 Years by the end of the 20th century. The origi- of Dodgers Baseball. nal Vero deal, just like the LA deal, Sources: USA: Library of Congress Cata- showed how much the team valued land log –in-Publication Data. Johnson, Rody L. (2008). The Rise and and freedom to develop it however they Ardolino, Frank. (2008). The Brooklyn Fall of Dodgertown: 60 Years of pleased. Yet, the Dodgers ended up leav- Dodgers: The Ghosts of Flatbush ing Vero primarily because of the money (review). NINE: A Journal of Baseball in Vero Beach. directly and indirectly offered to them. Baseball History and Culture, Gainesville: University Press of Florida. While the original Vero negotiation was 17(1), 158-163. Kahn, Roger. (1971). Boys of Summer. also initially orchestrated by two domi- Bacharach, S.B., & Lawler, E.J. (1986). New York: Harper and Row nant personalities (Holman and Rickey), Power Dependence and Power Publishers. the later rounds involved many actors Paradoxes in who all had different interests. In this Bavasi, Buzzie, with John Strege. (1987). Lewicki, Roy, Barry, Bruce, & Saunders, multi-party framework, the emotional and Off the Record. Chicago: Con- David. (2010). Negotiation. (six ed.). Boston: McGraw-Hill economic connection between the team temporary Irwin. and city became much more important Bazerman, Max H. & Neale, Margaret A. Shapiro, Michael. (2003). The Last Good than any one individual‘s opinions or (1992). Negotiating Rationally. Season: Brooklyn, the Dodgers, beliefs. This negotiation process was also New York: The Free Press. much more drawn-out and visible; cites Euchner, Charles C. (1993). Playing the and Their Final Pennant knew what offers were being traded Field: Why Sports Teams Move Race Together. USA: Double- day. around and Vero Beach recognized the and Cities Fight to Keep Them. Sullivan, Neil J. (1987). The Dodgers possibility of the team‘s departure. Given Baltimore, Maryland: John Hop- Move West. New York: Oxford the openness of these negotiations, kins University Press. BATNAs played a significant role in es- Fisher, Roger & Ury, William. (1991). University Press
Online Photo credits
Cover— http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/multimedia/photo_gallery/1006/world.cup.day17/content.6.html • p. 2—ILR Web Team • p. 4—http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_JAtlQGqPg_M/TIlA7dnUiiI/AAAAAAAAEC4/QGa62LFPSTk/s1600/brees-favre.jpg • p. 7—http:// www.constitutioncenter.org/timeline/flash/assets/asset_upload_file531_12123.jpg • p. 8—http://www.alreadytv.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/Clarett_AP.jpg • p. 8— http://archive.chicagobreakingsports.com/maurice-clarett-187.jpg • p. 8—http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/photos/uncategorized/2009/03/04/maurice_clarett.jpg • p. 11— http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/images/2005/10/31/GrPLVcKV.jpg • p. 11—http://blogs.accesshollywood.com/tobyoffice-thumb-175x262.jpg • p. 14—http://i.telegraph.co.uk/ multimedia/archive/01116/energie-cottbus_1116788c.jpg • p. 17—http://www.independent.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00133/beckham15_133884t.jpg • p. 17—http:// www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles/Photo/competitions/Clubsprofiles/93/60/65/936065_w2.jpg • p. 20—http://www.footballpictures.net/data/media/102/Claude_Makelele.jpg • p. 20—http://img.ezinemark.com/imagemanager2/files/30004252/2010/12/2010-12-28-11-42-21-1-beating-patiently-holland-on-the-world-cup-final.jpeg • p. 21—http:// www.henneganbrothers.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/pete_rozelle.jpg • p. 23—http://c1.ac-images.myspacecdn.com/images02/12/ l_3d35c83097624eb79e5352086a2c278c.jpg • p. 23—http://www.nfl-gambling-news.com/Pro-Bowl-2011/Stadiums/Stadiums/Buccaneers.jpg • p. 24—http:// visionaryartistrymag.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/dc-shoes-rob-dyrdek-collection-2.jpg • p. 26—http://www.wbur.org/2010/01/15/bruins-sharks • p. 27—http:// nucksiceman.com/can-the-vancouver-canucks-win-it-all-with-roberto-luongo • p. 29—http://mediagallery.usatoday.com/Stanley%20Cup • p. 29—http://www.nhlsnipers.com/ rod-brindamour-hangs-up-the-skates/ • p. 30—http://assets.espn.go.com/i/espn/ESPN-30for30-236x157.jpg • p. 30—http://www.freeadsindiabiz.com/_mm/_d/_ext2/60640/ big_Andres%20Escobar01.jpg • p. 30—http://www.gazette.net/images/PGSports/biassp060806a.jpg • p. 30—http://phinphanatic.com/files/2008/03/dolricky051.gif • p. 30— http://www.breadonthewaters.com/add/0428_topps_usfl_base_set_1985_clipart.jpg • p. 31—http://media.nola.com/tv_impact/photo/9026436-large.jpg • p. 31—http:// media.onsugar.com/files/2010/03/09/5/342/3425287/d842b34cb99940e8_Reggie_Miller.jpg • p. 31—http://cdn2.iofferphoto.com/img/item/112/807/995/ g_CyUKRcioUI0SX2A.jpg • p. 32—http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_XJseql2u5l0/S9d7j5EOwII/AAAAAAAAG6Y/uHDhH36T5ME/s1600/05-88_ea_jm_football-748841.gif • p. 32— http://sportsmedia.ign.com/sports/image/article/721/721198/madden-qb-cone-comparison-20060726053500113-000.jpg • p. 33—http://static- l3.blogcritics.org/09/09/14/113461/ichiro.jpg • p. 36—http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images_root/slides/photos/000/499/296/1_display_image.jpg?1289509536 • p. 38—http:// www.roguesbaseballindex.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/Joe-Mauer.png • p. 41—http://assets.nydailynews.com/img/2010/08/06/alg_red_sox_fans.jpg • p. 42—http:// patsblog.projo.com/jackson.jpg • p. 44—http://store.nba.com/home/index.jsp • p. 47—http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/ab/ Robert_Moses_with_Battery_Bridge_model.jpg/220px-Robert_Moses_with_Battery_Bridge_model.jpg • p. 51-57—http://www.flickr.com/photos/sportssymposium/ sets/72157625481002265/
50 Sports, Inc.
The ILRSMC attends the
Twenty-eight ILR Sports Management Club and Cornell students drove to Princeton University for the fifth annual Ivy Sports Symposium on Friday, November 19. Hosted by the Ivy Sports Collaborative and the Princeton Sports Business Club, the symposium brought together 69 speakers from the sports in- dustry in an intimate and educational setting. Following are panel recaps, pictures, and commentary from the event.
Compiled by Jake Makar, A&S ‗13 [email protected] INCLUDING: Edward Christian, ILR ‗11 • Keynote Roundtable (p. 52) [email protected] • Lunch Panel Presentations (p. 53) Ramzi BenSaid, ILR ‗13 • College Athletics (p. 54) [email protected] • Marketing Agencies (p. 54) • Global Soccer (p. 56) Matt Taube, CALS ‗11 [email protected]
USOC Chief Marketing Sports Agent Arn Officer Lisa Baird Tellem
Boston Celtics Managing Sports Business Journal Partner Wyc Grousbeck Editor Terry Lefton (Princeton ’83)
AND MORE Fall 2010 51 2010 Ivy Sports Symposium
Keynote Roundtable
David Falk, Founder & Chief Executive Officer, Falk Associates Manage- its NHL franchise that year. They have ment Enterprises (Moderator) committed to making Madden 12 regard- Gary Bettman, Commissioner, National Hockey League (Cornell ’74) less of a lockout, but obviously no foot- Peter Moore, President, EA SPORTS ball would strongly affect their business. Harvey Schiller, Vice Chairman & President, Odgers Berndtson Moore‘s product also allowed him to speak from the fan‘s perspective, rhetori- cally asking how fans would react to the The keynote roundtable featured tions, because it proved that a league upcoming collective bargaining negotia- some extremely experienced members of could shut down and come back not only tions. Given the current economic cli- the sports industry who offered great in- as a viable business, but better than it was mate, how would fans perceive multi- sight into a number of issues that are im- in its pre-lockout position. Peter Moore millionaires fighting with billionaires portant in today‘s sports environment. To offered a perspective somewhat different over money? the delight of the Cornell ILRies in at- from the other panelists by noting the oft The conversation then tendance, Falk‘s first question was to ask overlooked fact that other businesses turned to revenue sharing, after David Commissioner Bettman about the im- within the umbrella category of the Falk pointed out that most athletes al- pending collective bargaining issues in ―sports industry‖ are affected by a labor ready have what amounts to revenue shar- professional sports. Bettman articulated stoppage besides the leagues themselves. ing in the max salary cap system. Moore his view that the best solution for a league He observed that EA has to develop argued quite convincingly that the most must be long-term—he was wary of what games about a year in advance of the sea- important aspect of sports is the need to he termed ―band-aids‖ that would leave son, meaning that a labor stoppage could generate competition, and that, in the end, larger issues unaddressed. He also ex- potentially mean a loss of tens of millions revenue-sharing offered a disincentive pressed a belief that the 2004-05 NHL of dollars. Because the NHL-NHLPA towards spending the money to field a lockout fundamentally changed the dy- couldn‘t come to an agreement, EA competitive team. To Moore, the concept namics of collective bargaining negotia- Sports had to lay-off 200 employees from seemed entirely ―un-American‖. Howev- er, Harvey Schiller countered that sports are unlike any other business and should “The purpose of collective bargaining is to make therefore not be treated in the same way. the game better.” With the discussion leaning heavily on the labor relations aspect of -David Falk the sports industry, Falk asked the panel- ists a wide-sweeping question around the issue: Did the NHL lockout work? Bettman chose to defer, as his opinion on the matter is clear. Moore used his experi- ence with EA to make the claim that the NHL benefited greatly from having the most ―connected‖ fan base in sports. He claimed that product research on EA‘s NHL video game shows that gamers are more likely to use the management mode to run their favorite franchise. Because of this rabid, engaged fan base, he claimed that the NHL (and his NHL video game franchise) was ―much better off‖. Schiller also offered his thoughts, saying that the franchises themselves are more stream- lined and therefore, better off. See Mathew Mullery article on page 26 for a financial breakdown on this very ques- tion. The conversation was then redi- rected towards the NCAA, likely because it has been such a popular point of discus- sion over the past year. Schiller declared that in ten years, there will be either a completely different NCAA or no NCAA, citing the changing economics as the rea- Falk, Bettman, Schiller and Moore spoke on a variety of current topics, including son for the institution‘s ineffectiveness. labor relations in professional sports. Though he believed the system is broken, 52 Sports, Inc. General Sports
Schiller admitted he was unsure of who spending quite a bit on such costs as tui- can fix it and how. Moore, worried that tion and facilities. All agreed that the money takes over and destroys intercolle- Newton case, and others like it, are a re- giate rivalries, noting that many schools sult of societal issues and issues with the have changed conferences recently in an system as a whole. attempt to improve revenues. Bettman Overall, the Keynote Panel was offered that for sports executives, college a fantastic introduction to the day and set is a system to develop talent. All seemed the stage for the rest of the symposium. It to agree that the NCAA had some major was an exciting year to attend due to all issues on its hands that need to be re- of the labor issues surfacing in the sports solved soon. world. Though the panel was only able to Because the event took place touch on a handful of issues, it was com- with such proximity to the Cam Newton pletely riveting and surely entertained allegations, it was only natural that he, anyone who is interested in the issues and the issue of college athletes being currently being faced in the sports indus- paid for their efforts, be discussed. Schil- try. ler said that if they were to be paid it would have to be under an entirely new -Jake system, and noted that schools are already Lunch Panel Presentations
Jason Belzer, President, Global Athlete Management Enterprises, Inc. Every attendee received the above SWAG. Buffy Filippell, President, TeamWork Online, LLC ‘14) and Jennifer Baker (MBA ‘12), en- thusiastically participated in. Mateo said Attendees were invited to two How To Stand Out from the Crowd Buffy‘s advice to look for broad career lunch presentations designed to give ad- opportunities before narrowing down his vice for students looking to work in the Buffy Filippell‘s presentation focus after time and experience was most sports industry: had a different job-seeking focus from helpful. Jennifer recounted how one‘s Jason Belzer‘s, but was no less valuable. resume must clearly tell the employer Building Your Career: One Relation- Filippell encouraged attendees to know why you want to work for them and what ship at a Time what they ultimately want to do, but to you offer. also be somewhat flexible. She illustrated Jason Belzer emphasized con- that if you are too specific in your job -Jake structing a network through personal rela- search you ultimately limit yourself to the tionships. His point was that even the point that you can‘t find anything. She Who came? small things count, and that people appre- emphasized the importance of a solid ciate it when you help them. When build- résumé, an engaging cover letter, and a Over 200 students and 150 professionals ing a network, you are looking to advance convincing 30-second ―elevator speech‖. participated with the 69 speakers in attend- yourself professionally, but your relation- All of these aspects of your job search ance. Our Cornell contingent was also ships cannot be built if you expect some should be tailored to the job you are look- made up of Sports Marketing Group mem- kind of help immediately. He advised to ing for; even if you don‘t have any direct bers, an organization we hope to have try to show how you can be useful, and experience in the industry, show how the continued interactions with in the future. A hope that this will, in the long run, result skills you‘ve developed can translate and breakdown of attendance by Ivy school: in people wanting to return the favor. show your value by giving the tangible 28 Cornell Extremely important in this was his rec- results you have produced. Just as a track ommendation to maintain contact with and field athlete would describe his or her 28 Penn those in your network. Belzer also made performance with actual times, try to 22 Princeton the point that in order to be successful, quantify your impact in previous jobs. 19 Columbia you have to be aware of what is happen- More broadly, Filippell encouraged lis- ing in your industry; for those interested teners to be open to working in many 13 Brown in a career in sports, this means reading different capacities. You should know 5 Dartmouth the Sports Business Journal regularly. where you are, where you want to be, and 4 Harvard Overall, Belzer‘s message was to build be on the lookout for creative ways to get relationships by demonstrating your yourself there. In sports, it is important Other organizations in attendance include: worth and maintain them, so that when that you be unusual and memorable if you you do need to ask for something, it want to stand out from the many people The New York Times, Activ8Social, Com- won‘t be the first time you‘ve contacted pursuing employment in the industry. cast, Harlem Globetrotters, USTA, Gold- them since you first met. Afterwards, Buffy offered to man Sachs, IMG, Turnkey Sports & Enter- critique resumes, which two Cornell stu- tainment, Madison Square Gardens, Popu- dents, Mateo Hernandez-Ysasi (CALS lous, and StubHub. (Continued on page 54) Fall 2010 53 2010 Ivy Sports Symposium
step back from the conversation for a moment to realize the years of experience and exposure each panelist had. Each came from a different background: a men‘s basketball coach, a WNBA player, an associate commissioner, leaders in the business of sports, and even walk-on ath- letes. The differing experiences and knowledge base made for a wide array of experiences to draw upon, and allowed the audience to get a feel for all angles of the collegiate athletics environment. Fur- ther discussion included the scrutiny that college athletes face, the monetary issues that most colleges currently face, the large gap between the top and bottom schools, and a debate regarding College Panelists represented diverse backgrounds and professional experiences. Football Bowl games.
College Athletics -Matt
Derek Eiler, Senior Vice President & Managing Director, The Collegiate Licensing Marketing Agencies Company (Moderator) Rick Boyages, Associate Commissioner, Men's Basketball Big Ten Conference Pat Cavanaugh, Founder & Chief Executive Officer, The Crons Brand Terry Lefton, Editor-at-Large, SportsBusi- Hugh Durham, Former Men's Basketball Head Coach, Florida State University and ness Journal and SportsBusiness Daily University of Georgia (Moderator) Michael Sheehey, Senior Vice President, Comcast Sports Group Randy Bernstein, President & Chief Ex- Candice Wiggins, WNBA Player Minnesota Lynx ecutive Officer, Premier Partnerships Brian Corcoran, President, Shamrock Sports Group Christopher Lencheski, Chief Executive The Symposium‘s College Ath- safe ways to commercialize college ath- Officer, Phoenicia Sport & Entertainment letics panel opened by allowing the audi- letics. On the issue of money, Michael Michael Levine, Co-Head, CAA Sports ence to gain a little perspective on the Sheehey argued, ―money is money.‖ He (Cornell ’93) diverse set of experiences present claimed it was better for student athletes Ben Sturner, Founder & Chief Executive amongst the panelists, each of whom had to get paid legally than for it to continue Officer, Leverage Agency played or coached at the NCAA Division to go on under-the-table. Former Men‘s I level. Each panelist was invited to share Division I Basketball Head Coach Hugh their point-of-view regarding the evolu- Durham continued that thought, stating Marketing Agencies was one of tion of the student athlete; the pressures that athletes already get paid in the form the most interesting breakout sessions of today as compared to what they faced of scholarships. WNBA star Candice the symposium. Many of the initial ques- when they were in school. Rick Boyages, Wiggins argued, ―education for athletics tions surrounded the role of marketing suggested that the biggest difference he‘s is a fair trade,‖ but wondered if the school agencies in the wake of the economic noticed is the intense media coverage had the right to take ownership of the collapse, culminating with questions about where these sports executives see growth in the business, and ultimately how one can break into the industry. “All the panelists were eager to talk with the When the recession hit, every students.” speaker echoed the same sentiment: the sports industry viewed the recession as an -Robbie Cohen, Cornell ILR ’13 opportunity. Randy Bernstein stated that it forced marketing agencies to become more relevant and more accountable. Bri- an Corcoran, who launched Shamrock surrounding the student athletes. The athlete for their entire career. Should her Sports Group this year (during the reces- majority of the panel agreed, with Pat likeness be allowed to be displayed on sion), said that he saw the recession as an Cavanaugh adding, ―there‘s more trans- Stanford‘s campus? Mr. Sheehey won- opportunity to make an impact for sports parency now, which forces accountability dered if the athletes really had any power that need it, including bullriding, Nascar, on the players.‖ at all in any of the issues being discussed. and arena football. When pressed about Discussion then moved to the Although the discussion was launching Shamrock during this time, issue of payment for student athletes, and engrossing, one couldn‘t help but take a Corcoran reiterated that he viewed it as a 54 Sports, Inc. General Sports
to drive the price. Randy Bernstein built the students in attendance were waiting Cornell Alumni off of this point, saying that once you get for: how did you get your job? Brian multiple buyers and sponsors, you can Corcoran started off by offering the seem- The symposium was a great venue for replicate it in other areas. He said that this ingly-paradoxical advice, ―Don‘t mention connecting with Cornell alumni in the is where you are able to build relation- your passion for sports if you want a job sports industry. Gary Bettman (ILR ’74) and Michael Levine (A&S ’93) were enter- ships, which, as Ben Sturner pointed out, in sports.‖ Instead, he stressed the im- taining and informative in their respective is ―what it‘s all about.‖ Sturner, who portance of talking about your passion for panels, and took the time to speak with worked with both the NLL and the AVP, business and how you can make money our group members. We also enjoyed also reiterated the differentiation point, for the company you are speaking with. talking with Mike Roberts (AEM ’98) and saying that you have to be creative to be He finished by telling the audience to be Steve Cobb (A&S ’05), both former varsity successful. students of sports business, not necessari- basketball players and entrepreneurs in Despite the obvious hurdles pre- ly students of sports, and to use connec- the sports marketing and branding area. sented by the recession, there is still room tions and plant seeds for opportunities. See back cover for a group picture with for growth in the industry. Chris Lench- Ben Sturner focused on differentiating Levine (center) and Cobb (far left). eski said that he feels like most people yourself and building on relationships. He think the biggest growth opportunities lie suggested going on informational inter- in social media, but he feels like the ma- views, following up, and treating every great opportunity and the perfect time to jor growth going into the future lies in job you get like it‘s the best thing ever. do it. Chris Lencheski summed it up best, mobile information. He consistently Chris Lencheski said that no matter what proclaiming to your job, work to be those attending the best at it and that, ―While eve- make yourself indis- ryone else was “Tiger‟s biggest mistake was ever getting married.” pensable. He contin- looking to get out, ued, saying that the the sports industry -Phil de Picciotto, President of Athletes & Personalities, first ninety days set was looking at Octagon (Penn JD ‘81) the tone for your ca- how they could reer, and that you adapt and suc- have to make the best ceed.‖ use of every oppor- This eco- tunity you get. Final- nomic situation ly, Randy Bernstein led to a time of very difficult budgets. In stressed what he saw as the three most drove this point home, saying that you order to continue selling at a high end, the important areas, ―On the wall, in your lap, have to outwork everyone else – be the speakers focused on two primary areas: and on your phone,‖ with the biggest are- first one in and the last one out. differentiation and the value of relation- as for growth being on handheld media The insights, opinions, and ad- ships. Michael Levine, who worked with and technology. Randy Bernstein added vice offered by each of these industry both the New Yankee Stadium deal and that he feels like the growth lies in people professionals was well-received and ap- the Madison Square Garden renovation breaking into the industry being diversi- preciated by all in attendance, and is sure deal, stressed the importance of attempt- fied and finding ways to make themselves to be the focal point of much discussion ing to make the offer unique and creating valuable. As he stated, ―Sales will always going into the new year. value propositions for the buyer, differen- be sales,‖ so it comes down to the people tiating it from everything else that is out and how they can find value in a con- -Edward there. He also mentioned that if you are stantly-changing industry. able to get multiple buyers, it allows you Finally, the question that most of
The day was filled with excellent opportunities for professionals and students alike to network with others who are interested in and involved with the sports industry. Fall 2010 55 2010 Ivy Sports Symposium
explained that a lot of the development is Global Soccer on the shoulders of the team owners. The panelists then discussed Simon Cummins, Managing Director, International Sports Practice, Odgers some of the differences between the MLS Berndtson Executive Search (Moderator) and the European soccer industry. For Jim Brown, Principal, JBC International and Advisor, 2014 FIFA World Cup example, in Europe it is simply an open Dan Cherry III, Chief Marketing Officer, The New York Cosmos (Penn ’00) market and teams like Real Madrd and Mary Harvey, Former Chief Operating Officer, Women's Professional Soc- Barcelona must create their own capital to cer and Former Director of Development, FIFA invest in players, who hopefully perform Gary Hopkins, President & Chief Executive Officer, G7 Sports well and thus generate more interest and Shawn Hunter, Former President & Chief Executive Officer, Club Deportivo eventually pay dividends. If these play- Chivas USA Begoña Sanz, Deputy Sales & Marketing Managing Director, Real Madrid ers do not account for their transfer fee, Club de Fútbol their teams get into debt. Russell Wolff, Executive Vice President & Managing Director, ESPN Inter- The topic then swung to recent national (Dartmouth ’89, Dartmouth MBA ’94) developments regarding consumers. Wolff discussed the ESPN goals app for smartphones, which allows the user to The final session of the day in- Hopkins chose to instead look at watch every goal from whatever league cluded a panel on ―Global Soccer‖, meant the progression of the women‘s game in they purchase. Wolff explained the func- to discuss the future of soccer in America, this country. In the early 1990s the team tionality of this app saying that once you in terms of both the men‘s and women‘s was dominant, but they got nothing in buy something, you want every aspect games and analyzing the past. terms of equipment, accommodations etc. possible. Harvey added that the develop- American soccer has developed Now the level of talent is the same, but ment of technology can potentially bene- at both the national team and the MLS, they receive the benefits that they de- fit the smaller leagues thanks to increased with the league‘s recent expansion of serve. player exposure. She used the example of seven teams in the last six years. Dan Harvey continued with the wom- Ron Artest tweeting during halftime of a Cherry, of the New York Cosmos, who en‘s soccer discussion explaining that the basketball game as something that can could potentially join the MLS in the hardest part of her career was trying to lead to increased fan interest. Cherry coming years, said that the MLS can con- start Women‘s Professional Soccer agreed that progressiveness can help gen- tinue to grow; however, this growth must league. Harvey feels that the market is erate interest, but also stressed the im- be steady and stable. Steady and stable there, however WPS will not develop portance of tradition and heritage in soc- growth will keep the league from overex- easily. The current six team league could cer. Looking at the clubs overseas, the tending its resources as the demographic fail for same reasons that WUSA failed; passion is incredible and shows that there of the MLS fan changes. The English financial and management issues, or it can be growth in the states. Simons was bullish on ―Americanizing could be a young MLB or NFL. Harvey Continuing looking at the fans, soccer‖. Wolff gave some input as to soccer on ESPN‘s foreign networks. The popular European leagues such as the English Premier League get the prime- time broadcast spots, but Wolff credited the MLS and its long term strategy. Wolff agreed with Cherry in that if the MLS did not keep its growth level sustainable there would inevitably be a drop off. Wolff‘s final point on the MLS was that there are very few players (David Beckham, Thier- ry Henry, Landon Donovan etc.) who have the superstar status that other profes- sional athletes achieve and this has al- lowed for the focus to be on the field. Having both the LA Galaxy and New York Red Bulls recently eliminated from the MLS Cup, Simmons then posed the question of whether the lack of stars in the tournament is bad for league devel- opment. The general consensus from the panel was that having the league‘s stars involved in the playoffs could have been better for the league, but it is far from a worry and will allow for other players to be in the spotlight for the time being. Cornell students engaged the panelists with questions throughout the symposium. 56 Sports, Inc. General Sports
The Ivy Sports Collaborative “The symposium reinforced the thought that I The ISC is an umbrella organization of would want to someday enter the sports industry the ILRSMC and other sports business as a career.” clubs at all Ivy universities. Dedicated towards educating students about the in- dustry and facilitating career opportunities, -Edward Christian, Cornell ILR ’11 the network offers a job board, newsletter, and advice and support for all member clubs. Learn more and sign-up for free at ivysportsbusiness.com. game. Harvey stated that currently 1 in 10 game‘s governing body, and everywhere The network also played an integral soccer players worldwide are female, in between. Although the U.S. did not role in planning the symposium and pro- while this ratio for new soccer players is win the world cups, the respective mem- moting it to member schools. Undergradu- 1 in 5. Brown continued by explaining bers of the Global Soccer panel were still ate executive board members from Brown, Cornell, Penn, and Princeton served on that for the 2003 and 2007 Women‘s bullish on soccer in the US as the MLS the planning committee by helping formu- World Cup there was no competition for grows and the national team keeps im- late panels, invite speakers, design the hosting, but there have been multiple bids proving. program, and all the responsibilities that to host the 2011 cup. Hopkins explained go into making this event happen. Special that women‘s soccer in the US grew dras- -Ramzi thanks goes to network alumni co-chair tically thanks to the and symposium founder and executive performances of director Chris Chaney (Princeton ’07) for the likes of Mia his vision, leadership, and motivation in Hamm and Brandi making the event as professional and re- warding as possible. Chastain and that the men‘s game could see similar the panelists addressed the overall watch- growth if the US ing experience in the US versus overseas. were to host and do The feeling was that, though there will be well in a World a bit of ―Americanizing‖ the experience Cup. abroad, we will not be seeing anything H o p k i n s drastic like the addition of media added that legaliz- timeouts. The changes that will be made ing gambling might are more the modernizing of the stadi- add to interest as ums. One example was Arsenal‘s Emir- everyday people ates Stadium, which has more jumbo- with no team alle- trons, and a better sound system than its giance could have a predecessor, Highbury Stadium. vested interest. The panelists were then given Hopkins explained the opportunity to present a final random that in the UK you but relevant thought. Wolff, looking to can bet on anything the fan and focused on the broadcast side from the score to said that the 2014 World Cup in Brazil is the color of the perfect for attracting fans on television keeper‘s gloves. because games will be on at watchable Sanz then coun- times whereas the past 4 world cups tered by pointing (France, Korea and Japan, Germany and out that Real Ma- South Africa) had games broadcast at drid is sometimes very awkward hours in the US. Hunter forced to play with- stressed that it could be huge for US soc- out their sponsor cer if the 2018 or 2022 World Cup were ―Bwin‖ because of in the US, but it is in no way disastrous if its association with that is not the case. Brown touched on gambling. technology in soccer, saying that FIFA This panel spent loads of money on the refs for the provided many 2010 World Cup, but there were still er- different vantage The Ivy Sports Symposium is awarded to a different member rors. He said simply that is the human points on the game club and university each year. The University of Pennsylvania element of refereeing in soccer, which of soccer from Real Undergraduate Sports Business Club will host the 2011 Sympo- has been present since the game‘s crea- Madrid, maybe the sium in Philadelphia next November. The ILRSMC and Cornell tion. most storied club in plan to submit a bid to host in the near future. Follow the event Harvey, Brown and Hopkins the world, to mem- on twitter, facebook, and at sportssymposium.org for updates. pointed out the growth of the women‘s bers of FIFA, the We hope you will join us at future symposiums. Fall 2010 57
Daniel Halem Interview
Daniel Halem ‟88 is Major League Baseball‟s Senior Vice President and General Counsel, Labor. An ILR School alum, Halem graduated magna cum laude from Harvard Law School in 1991 before serving as a partner in the Labor and Employment Law Department at the New York law firm Proskauer Rose LLC. He was hired in Sep- tember 2007 to replace Frank Coonelly, the current President of the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Daniel spoke with Gabe Gershenfeld ‟11 during the 2010 Baseball Winter Meetings and a subsequent phone call to discuss ILR, careers in the sports industry, and sports labor relations.
Where did your interest in law come in college. I do wish that I had taken a Much of what we do is cyclical from? second language such as Spanish at Cor- based on the baseball calendar. Salary nell, which is more important than stu- arbitration takes up most of late January I always had an idea that I might dents may realize for many careers. and February, much of March is spent in be interested in law school, but didn‘t Coming from ILR, I went into law school Florida or Arizona for Spring Training decide until after my junior year at Cor- with a strong background in labor law, meetings, the Rule IV draft and grievance nell. I spent a semester at Cornell in but I didn‘t truly begin to understand arbitrations occur during the season, and Washington where I worked at the NLRB what lawyers actually do until I began the off-season is consumed by the major D.C. office, and then worked at the De- work as an associate at Proskauer. industry meetings and planning for the partment of Labor for that summer. At next season. the NLRB, I had the opportunity to write Could you give a brief introduction to the opinions and do substantive work that I function of the MLB Labor Relations De- How do you compare the value of a JD, found interesting. That definitely solidi- partment? MBA, or masters in sports management fied my decision to study law. My super- in this industry? visor at the NLRB wrote my law school The department is comprised of recommendation letter. both lawyers and non-lawyers. The attor- The sports industry is filled with neys are responsible for negotiating the both MBAs and attorneys, but the answer Would you say you were interested in law collective bargaining agreements with the depends on your career interests. There before sports? MLB Players Association and World are very few entry-level opportunities for Umpires Association, handling grievanc- attorneys in the sports field, so most attor- Absolutely. I didn‘t even think es and disputes under the contracts, advis- neys pursuing a career in sports law will about sports until I was at Proskauer. I ing clubs on contract issue, administering begin at a law firm. As a result, attorneys think this is the better way for students to the drug testing programs, and handling tend to enter the sports industry at a more make decisions: specialize in a particular issues involving minor league and inter- senior level. I would never advise anyone field or area before you decide to focus national players (e.g., Dominican Repub- to go to law school solely to pursue a on a particular industry. I choose to pur- lic), among other things. Non-lawyers career in sports. You should only go to sue a career in labor law which eventually have business, economics, or statistical law school if you want to be a lawyer provided me the opportunity to transition backgrounds, and provide advice to Clubs whether you work for sports clients or into sports law. There is really no such on player compensation issues, oversee investment banks, etc. An MBA is very thing as sports lawyers; rather there are the salary arbitration and Rule IV draft useful for a person pursuing a business corporate attorneys, labor attorneys, I.P support programs, and provide quantita- career in sports, and proficiency in statis- attorneys, and antitrust attorneys who tive analysis regarding the revenue shar- tics, quantitative analysis, and financial specialize in the sports industry. ing system, the competitive balance tax, analysis are very important. A masters and general industry economics. degree in sports management would not What aspects of ILR and your Cornell necessarily make you a more attractive experience do you most remember? What would a typical day or week in-the- candidate for the Labor Relations Depart- life look like for you? ment, but it may for other jobs in sports. Professor Nick Salvatore—I We care much less about sports-specific found labor history very interesting, even There is no typical routine, as degrees than about a demonstrated record though the subject isn‘t directly relevant there are always dozens of tasks and pro- of achievement in school and at work. to the work I do now. To this day, I re- jects going simultaneously. A lot of my member reading about Eugene Debs and time is spent in meetings, on the phone, Working in the game, do you consider the Industrial Workers of the World. and traveling (including our time in Or- yourself a “fan” of baseball? Classes in subjects that probably will not lando for the winter meetings and owner have any applicability to your career are meetings). Either Rob Manfred, me, or I am, and always have been, a valuable in giving you a broader perspec- someone from our group speaks to repre- baseball fan. I was fanatical baseball fan tive and I would urge students to learn sentatives of the Players Association and as a boy, and either watched or listened to about as many different areas as possible WUA virtually every day. virtually every game of a team that shall 58 Sports, Inc. MLB now remain nameless. Now, I am honest- municate well with the Players Associa- unique and different. Some of the differ- ly not a fan of any one team so much as a tion. In fact, we talk about issues virtual- ences are based on personalities, and fan of the game. It can be hard to sepa- ly every day. Of course, we have disa- some are based on the history of the rela- rate being an employee of MLB and be- greements, and don‘t always see eye to tionship. In addition, each of the major ing a baseball fan when you are very eye on some things, but our discourse is professional sports leagues have unique close to the business side of the game. I always civil and constructive. economic challenges and issues that af- watch the emotional roller coaster that fect their relationship with the players. MLB general managers go through each These characteristics sound like universal Baseball has a mature relation- season, and the pressure they face to put labor relations principles. ship with the Players Association that has together a winning club. Sports can be a developed over time, following decades very tough business. Certainly. All successful labor – of strained labor relations. We work hard management relationships share similar to maintain a productive labor- What are the characteristics of successful characteristics such as open communica- management relationship which requires employees in the labor relations depart- tion, respect, trust, and a desire to work constant communication with the Players ment? out differences without suffering a work Association on issues, and a willingness stoppage. on both sides to compromise. Both the All employees are extremely Commissioner‘s Office and the Players dedicated (underline ―extremely‖). They Association also try to avoid public rheto- work all hours without complaint. We ric or criticism of each other, which can are always on call – 7 days a week at all be destructive of a relationship. hours. Whenever they are assigned a task, they don‘t ask about the deadline, Do you think the NFL and NBA will play but rather assume it had to be done an next year? hour ago. They are mature, understand confidentiality, and are very bright. I hope they do. I have no direct There are millions of smart people in the knowledge of their negotiations other world, but we look for individuals with Your current CBA expires December than what I read in the media, but I hope good judgment and excellent interperson- 2011. What issues do you expect to be they do not have work stoppages. Re- al skills, in addition to being brilliant. I most contentious issue(s) going forward? gardless of what is often reported in the always say that you are only as good as What will be mutual gains opportunities media, leagues and players unions work the people who work for you. for both parties? very hard to avoid a work stoppage be- cause the substantial economic damages Baseball has seen work stoppages in Both sides have a joint interest that a work stoppage causes. I think it is 1972, ‟76, ‟80, ‟81, ‟85, ‟90, and ‟94-„95, in increasing baseball‘s revenues and way too early to predict whether there but has had 16 years (and counting) of expanding the fan base. A bigger eco- will be a work stoppage in either the NFL labor peace. What has made this possible nomic pie is better for everybody. or NBA. There is still plenty of time for and what will be the key to continued [MLBPA Chief] Michael Weiner has agreements to be reached, and I am sure labor peace? been meeting with players to identify the that the negotiators on both sides will crucial issues on the players‘ side, just as work extremely hard to the very end to On MLB‘s end, credit goes to we have been meeting with the owners reach an agreement. Commissioner Selig and Rob Manfred and General Managers to establish our [MLB EVP of Labor Relations and HR, bargaining proposals. At this point, it is The year is 2020 and baseball labor rela- ILR ‗80] for establishing a more coopera- too early to say exactly what the critical tions are going fantastically well. What tive and productive relationship with the issues will be on both sides. will this look like? What has to happen— Players Association. They set the tone However, we expect that the or continue to happen now—to make that for the relationship. A lot of hard work economic issues that have been the sub- possible? was put in by both sides to improve the ject of our prior negotiations, namely relationship well before I arrived in 2007. revenue sharing and the competitive bal- The ideal labor-management Developing a better labor- ance tax, again will be discussed. The relationship in sports is where the parties management relationship is not easy, but system of amateur talent distribution work together to increase the popularity requires much effort to build a level of through the Rule IV draft and internation- of the game, and by extension, the total trust on both sides. Trust is not estab- al signings, and the post-season format, revenues of the industry. When the eco- lished overnight, but develops over time, also likely will be topics of discussion. nomic pie keeps growing, and there is a as the parties are able to work through bigger pie to share, it is easier to find difficult issue, after difficult issue. Hope- At Proskauer, you had the opportunity to creative solutions to the distribution is- fully, the more constructive labor rela- also work with the NBA, WNBA, NHL, sues we constantly face. If in the next 10 tions foundation that Commissioner Selig and New York Jets. How do MLB labor years, we can work cooperatively with and Rob Manfred built with the Players relations compare? Are there any factors the players to increase the appeal of base- Association with continue to grow over that make baseball unique? ball, develop more stars, maintain com- time. petitive balance, and grow revenues in all From my perspective, having Labor relations are one of those markets, we should be in good shape. only arrived three years ago, we com- ―animals‖ where each relationship is truly Fall 2010 59
Back in the days when men were men, nobody worried about pitch counts. Ed Walsh threw 464 innings in 1908. If you tried to take him out of a game after 100 pitches, he'd probably tell you he had at least another 200 pitches in him. Despite the recent efforts of Nolan Ryan and the Texas Rangers to go back to the old days of not counting pitches, the rest of baseball still does so, so we might as well pay attention to it. These days, a starting pitcher is usually taken out after around 100-110 pitches. Sometimes, this means taking out a pitcher throwing a shutout in the 6th inning because he had reached the 100 pitch limit. There are two ways for a team to get around this predicament: letting the pitcher throw more pitches (which could potentially increase the risk of injury), or increasing pitching efficiency (i.e., throwing fewer pitches per at bat). This article explores the latter. It takes at least three pitches to strike someone out, but only one is required to get an out on a ball in play. Therefore, conventional wisdom says that a pitcher could decrease his pitch count by not attempting to strike out every batter. This is called pitching to contact. That seems good enough for most fans, but is it true? A strikeout results in an out 100% of the time (ignoring the rare dropped third strike), but a ball in play results in an out only 71% of the time. That ―other 29%‖ results in more batters coming to the plate, which results in more pitches having to be thrown to those additional batters. On one hand, more strikeouts lead to more pitch- es per at bat, but also lead to fewer batters coming to the plate. On the other, more balls in play (fewer strikeouts) leads to fewer pitches per at bat, but also leads to more batters coming to the plate. It is difficult for a pitcher to change his style, so he is essentially stuck with what his natural talents have given him. So holding all else con- stant, which type of pitcher is more efficient with his pitch count? According to Retrosheet game logs from 1993 to the present, the average strikeout requires 4.8 pitches, the average walk takes 5.5 pitches, and the average at-bat when the ball is put into play takes 3.3 pitches. Before you say ―but this pitcher is different,‖ these numbers have been tested against pitchers of all types--ground ball specialists, high-strikeout pitchers, high-walk pitchers (see footnotes). So these averages seem applicable to all pitchers, whether they follow the norm or are unusual cases like the high-strikeout, low-contact A.J. Burnett or the low-strikeout, high-contact Joel Piniero .We can use these pitch-count estimates to see how an increased strikeout rate affects a pitch count. How about a real-life test of the estimator? Joba Chamberlain has received some criticism from main- stream media-types about needing to be more efficient with his pitches, so he's as good an example as any. Joba faced 709 batters in 2009, striking out 133 and walking 76. Multiply Joba‘s 2009 pitching line by the average num- ber of pitches per result, and you get 2,706 pitches thrown. How many did he actually thrown this year? 2,733. That difference of 27 pitches might seem like a lot to miss by, but it is only less than one pitch per start. Joba‘s 2009 pitching line prorated to 9 innings, is fairly typical for a pitcher: 9 innings, 6 strikeouts, 4 walks, and one home run. If 30% of balls in play fall in for hits, that also means that there are 10 hits allowed in those 9 innings. In that ―typical‖ game, a pitcher is expected to throw 153.1 pitches in 9 innings. What about games that aren't normal, like one where the pitcher racks up a ton of strikeouts? Here's an extreme example: Take the exact pitching line from above, but change strikeouts from 6 to 27. So the new pitching line is 9 IP, 27 strikeouts, 4 BB. Notice that the home run has now gone missing from the pitching line. In the first example, a home run occurred once every 36 balls in play. In this example where the ILR Sportspitcher Management either strikes Club members out or walks with eachMichael batter, Levine there ‘93 are (center), no balls Co in- play,head andof CAA therefore Sports, no at home the 2010 runs. Ivy Using Sports the Symposium. Twenty-eightformula Cornell above, students the pitcher participated would in be this expected one day to event throw at 151.6 Princeton pitches. University That‘s thatfewer attracted pitches 69than speakers the ―normal‖ and panelist pitch-s (including NHLer would Commissioner throw in a Gary9 inning Bettman game. ‗74) in an intimate setting. Read Sports, Inc.‘s coverage of the event, starting on page 51. Let's look at the other extreme--a pitcher who doesn't strike out a single batter the entire game. Such a pitcher would face, on average, 44 batters per game, allowing 12.7 hits per game, 4 walks and about one home run. The number of hits allowed is simply an illustration which assumes that 30% of all balls in play land in for hits. This number is only necessary to determine the total number of batters a pitcher would face in a ―typical‖ game with no strikeouts. What matters here is that all non-strikeout and non-walk plate appearances end in 3.3 pitches, whether or not the result of the play is a hit. This pitcher‘s expected pitch count would be 154 pitches. With this model, these two examples show that even at the extreme ends of the spectrum, the amount of batters you strike out, holding all else constant, makes virtually no difference in terms of pitch count efficiency--in fact, there‘s actually a slight benefit to striking out more batters. To the left, this same exercise is graphed out for every possible strikeout total, from zero to 27, holding all else constant: The maximum value is 154, and the minimum value is 151.6. In practical terms, there is not much of a difference. So what did we learn from this exercise? The pitcher with no strikeouts would be expected to throw 154 pitches, the ―normal‖ pitcher would be expected to throw just about 153 pitches, and the 27-strikeout pitcher would be expected to throw just under 152 pitches. Given a constant walk rate and balls in play out percentage, this model For more information on Sports, Inc. shows that, even in the most extremeor cases,the ILR striking Sports out lots Management of batters will Club,not increase your pitch count. In fact, it please contact club co-presidents Gabe Gershenfeld at [email protected] or Jeff Lebow at [email protected].