JrnlID 11869_ArtID 887_Proof# 1 - 26/07/2020 Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health https://doi.org/10.1007/s11869-020-00887-7 1 3 2 4 5 Climatic causes of dangerous hydrological phenomena 6 in the Altai region 7 Maria G. Sukhova1 & Olga V. Zhuravleva2 & Andrey V. Karanin2 & Natalya F. Kharlamova3 8 9 Received: 22 June 2020 /Accepted: 21 July 2020 10 # Springer Nature B.V. 2020 11 Abstract 12 The research objective is to analyze the causes of the catastrophic rise in the water level of rivers in the Katun River basin (the 13 territory of the Altai Republic) in 2014. The research was conducted through the consideration of the impact factors that lead to 14 flooding of the territory. The moisture regime is analyzed, as well as the change in the air temperatureOF of the considered basin. It is 15 established that the flood in several areas of the Altai Republic located in the Katun River basin was caused by the cumulative 16 effect of the natural and anthropogenic factors, which created the emergency situation, with the dominating natural one—the 17 record high precipitation for the entire period of instrumental monitoring. The general reason for such prolonged and intense 18 precipitation was the extensive stationary cyclone, which spread to most of the Altai Mountains due to the blocking role of the 19 high-level anticyclone spread from the southeast to the western and central parts ofPRO Russia in the last third of May–the first third of 20 June 2014. D 21 Keywords Atmospheric precipitation . Air temperature . Mountains .EKatun River basin . River flood situation 22 23 Introduction summer of 2013, after many days of heavy rains on the 28 Amur River, a catastrophic flood occurred, which resulted in 29 24 Among the natural disasters observed on the territory of the the flooding of 185 settlements, the destruction of 15,000 30 25 Russian Federation, which cause great material damage, a residential buildings, and 611 km of roads (Semenov et al. 31 26 special place is held by floods. The events of the last decade 2014). At the end of June 2019, one of the most catastrophic 32 27 have expressly demonstrated their danger.ORRECT Thus, in the floods in more than 100 years occurred in the Irkutsk region, 33 which covered five districts. Only direct economic damage is 34 C estimated at several billion roubles. There are casualties (25 35 * Maria G. Sukhova people died and 7 went missing) (Vinober 2019). 36 UN Generally, in Russia, a territory with a total area of over 37 400.000 km2 is subject to potential flooding; the annual ma- 38 Olga V. Zhuravleva terial damage from floods averages over 50 billion roubles. 39 Over 35% of the population live in places that may be flooded 40 Andrey V. Karanin (Vorobyov 2016). The problem is also relevant to the world 41 community (Alaoui et al. 2018;Rokayaetal.2018; Liu et al. 42 Natalya F. Kharlamova 2018;Gianottietal.2018;Heetal.2018). 43 The fact that there is a tendency of increase in the frequency 44 and size of floods, and as a result, the increase in their social, 45 1 Laboratory of Landscape Water and Ecological Researches and 46 Environmental Management, Institute of Water and economic, and environmental damage is of particular concern Environmental Problems of the Siberian Branch of the Russian (Winsemius et al. 2016;Tanoueetal.2016;Istomina2013; 47 Academy of Science, 1 Molodezhnaya Str., Barnaul, Russian Nigmetov et al. 2003). Many flood researchers are inclined to 48 Federation 656038 2 consider ongoing climate change as the main cause of such 49 Department of Geography and Nature Management, Gorno- large-scale natural disasters (Nigmetov 2003; Selezneva 2012; 50 Altaisk State University, 1 Lenkin Str., Gorno-Altaisk, Russian 51 Federation 649000 Makhinov et al. 2014; Danilov-Danilyan and Gelfan 2014). 3 Our research is focused on a detailed analysis of the causes 52 Department of Physical Geography and Geoinformation Systems, 53 Altai State University, 61a Lenin Ave., Barnaul, Russian of the catastrophic rise in the level of rivers in the Katun River Federation 656049 JrnlID 11869_ArtID 887_Proof# 1 - 26/07/2020 Air Qual Atmos Health 54 basin (the territory of the Altai Republic) in 2014. As a result precipitation was the day during which the amount of precip- 104 55 of the flood, 504 km of roads was flooded, 223 km of which itation was 0.1 mm or more), and the delay time of the water 105 56 was destroyed. Floodwaters destroyed and damaged 235 brid- level rise in the largest rivers near meteorological stations 106 57 ges; power supply was disrupted in 50 settlements. Forty-nine during the flood period of 2014. 107 58 social facilities were affected in Choysky, Mayminsky, To illustrate the long-term dynamics of precipitation, a few 108 59 Chemalsky, Ulagansky districts, and Gorno-Altaisk. Six resi- diagrams were created with the display of linear trends, which 109 60 dential buildings were destroyed, eight houses are beyond generally characterize the direction of changes. To visualize 110 61 restoration, and 4 thousand residential buildings require capi- the situation at the end of May 2014, a series of graphs were 111 62 tal repairs. For the republic with a total population of just over constructed, which reproduce the amount of precipitation and 112 63 200 thousand people, these figures are very significant. the spike in water level during the flood period. To assess the 113 64 Significant floods on the Katun River are observed at dif- greatest contribution to the increase in water level during the 114 65 ferent intervals. Thus, for example, the floods of 1966, 1969, flood period, the excess of precipitation over the climatic 115 66 and 1973 were the most significant. 1969 stands out in this norm at the meteorological stations was calculated and a com- 116 67 series. The water level reached 4800 m3, which exceeds the parative analysis of hydrometeorological indicators was 117 68 long-term average by more than two times. This year, in many performed. 118 69 tributaries of the Katun, in the highlands and the midlands, an The Katun River is the most significant river in the Altai 119 70 abnormally high flow was also formed during the flood sea- Republic. It originates in theOF Katun glaciers on the southwest- 120 71 son. The main reason for this situation is that the winter of ern slope of Belukha Mountain. The drainage basin is pear- 121 72 1968–1969 was frosty and snowy. By early spring, the snow shaped and stretches from south to north. The total drainage 122 73 reserves almost doubled the norm, but the depth of soil freez- area is 60,900 km2, and the length is 688 km. Throughout the 123 74 ing, nevertheless, was significant. The beginning of spring entire river, KatunPRO receives 6799 tributaries. The river receives 124 75 was relatively cold, and the snow melted slowly, gradually the most water-abundant tributaries in the upper and middle 125 76 saturating with water. When the air temperature increased to streams.D 126 77 stably positive values, intensive water loss from the snow EIn the territory of the researched basin, 8 meteorological 127 78 deposits began, which caused the flooding. The research ob- stations (MS) are located: Ak-Kem, Kara-Tyurek, Katanda, 128 79 jective is to analyze the causes of the catastrophic rise in the Kosh-Agach, Kyzyl-Ozyok, Onguday, Ust-Koksa, and 129 80 level of rivers in the Katun River basin (the territory of the Chemal (Fig. 1). They cover six administrative districts of 130 81 Altai Republic) in 2014. the Altai Republic. The analysis also involved the data from 131 the Ust-Kan meteorological station since some of the rivers in 132 the Ust-Kan district belong to the Katun River basin. Notably, 133 82 Material and methods the indicated number of MS is completely insufficient for the 134 researched mountainous area. 135 83 The research is based on observational dataORRECT at the hydrometeo- The hydrometeorological situation in the Mayminsky dis- 136 84 rological posts and stations of theC Gorno-Altai Centre of trict is characterized by the data from the Kyzyl-Ozyok MS. 137 85 Hydrometeorology and Monitoring of Environment—abranch 86 of the Federal Government Budgetary Institution “West Siberian 87 Territorial AdministrationUN for Hydrometeorological and Results and discussion 138 88 Environmental Monitoring” in the Katun River basin. For the 89 correct analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution of atmospheric The objective of this research is to thoroughly study the situ- 139 90 precipitation in the river basins, we used the daily observational ation in the Katun River basin, which preceded the flood. We 140 91 data from operational observational units, the data posted on the produced and analyzed the detailed timing, quantitative infor- 141 92 official website of the All-Russian Research Institute of mation on temperature, and precipitation at all meteorological 142 93 Hydrometeorological Information—World Data Centre (climatic stations of the Katun River basin, as well as the water levels of 143 94 data of cities around the world), and the precipitation data by the the river and all its significant tributaries. Such a level of effort 144 95 observation dates to extend the series from the website of the will facilitate to find the causes of the catastrophic increase in 145 96 operational meteorological data (Website of Operational the water level. 146 97 Meteorological Data). 98 To identify possible patterns and dependencies, the follow- 99 ing estimations were performed: the climatic norm of aver- Analysis of atmospheric precipitation according to 147 100 aged May precipitation for the base period (1960–1990), the Kyzyl-Ozyok MS data 148 101 maximum and minimum precipitation levels in May for the 102 period of 1955–2013, the variability of the mid-May precipi- According to Kyzyl-Ozyok MS data, in May 2014, 206.9 mm 149 103 tation, the frequency of precipitation days (the day with of precipitation fell, which is 2.75 times higher than the 150 JrnlID 11869_ArtID 887_Proof# 1 - 26/07/2020 Air Qual Atmos Health OF PRO D E Fig.